Aren't some of the current candidates better qualified? The thinking esp of Aghogho Edevbie (current deputy secretary of state) and Barbara Byrum (county clerk overseeing the capital) as more qualified on paper. Gilchrist got famous for a strong primary challenge to be Detroit city clerk, but I don't really get what puts him above them since he didn't win it. Not sure what relevant exp Adam Hollier has either.
He was Director of Innovation under Detriot's CIO and developed an app to allow residents to report issues to city officials, and ran for Detroit City Clerk in 2017, so I wouldn't say he's unqualified by any stretch.
Seems to have poor political instincts. Passed up on MI-13 and the senate primary that had no clear front runner instead tried going up against Benson who was the overwhelming favorite from the start. Best of luck to him on SoS but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him falter there as well.
Great news! Democrats are fielding an incredibly strong slate of candidates for Senate in 2026! It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that we regain the Senate as well as flip the House!
Sullivan won his upset Senate race in 2014 by only 2 points, which is the weakest showing in a very R-leaning midterm. He didn't improve his margin much in 2020.
If anything, Alaska is hurting BAD (probably as much as Nevada if not worse) due to Trump's tariffs and horrid immigration 'policy.'
Not sure I agree with this. Iowa has shown a reversion to form in special elections last year while Texas has been hostile for 30+ years and took a big leap in the wrong direction in 2024. And given that the odds are no less than 50-50 that Jasmine Crockett will be the Democratic nominee in Texas in November, I'd rate Iowa as a likelier win than Texas. Victory in either would likely require an inside straight though.
Texas will very likely have a weaker republican nominee than Iowa. Potentially substantially weaker. And yes, if Crockett is our nominee I'd be sufficiently pessimistic that I'd all but give up on the seat, I'll agree there. I'm working on the assumption we get Talarico. Which I concede is an assumption, I'm not sure how much of one -- I don't think we can rightfully say that Crockett is at least a 50% odds on favorite with how recently that primary got scrambled by her entry and Allred's withdrawal. I don't think we'll really know until the eve of the primary, which isn't a helpful time table but it is what it is.
Also worth noting that the TX-18 special jungle primary was a massive overperformance for us too, comparable to the Iowa specials. Not apples to apples unfortunately due to the jungle primary nature, but the only republican got 6.7% of the vote. In the 2024 general the republican candidate got 30.4% of the vote.
All told I think it's in the same playing field as Iowa.
I hope dems are strategic this time and convince any lower tier dem who makes it into the top 4 primary to drop out so Peltola is the only dem in the general election. Republicans did that in 2024 until Begich was the only republican.
As usual, Politico is downplaying Peltola's chances of winning the Senate race, conveniently ignoring the fact she won statewide in her House race both times in 2022. She only lost in 2024 due to Rs coalescing around Begich and it being a R-leaning year.
I understand why she vacillated between running for governor and the U.S. Senate seat. The governor's race had her winning handily (and she would be able to stay home), but narrowly winning a 6-year Senate term means that she has more clout than a House seat and can sink a Trump judicial nomination.
I respect the choice. Like Sherrod, if you really see the threat Trump poses and the damage he's doing and has already done, then it's your obligation to run for Senate even if it will be a hard race and a longshot
My gut feeling is that Peltola will win this. And that Mary Peltola, in addition to being a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate, will work with Murkowski to further sensible legislation for the benefit of Alaska.
My exact sentiments. Taking into consideration 2022 was a good year for Democrats absent of losing the House, Peltola got one of the few House wins that year considering how Nick Begich and Sarah Palin split the votes. 2026 may give her more room to work with than in 2022.
Peltola wouldn't exactly change how she would serve in the Senate as she already as a House member served AK at-large. The only difference would be her position and the influence it would wield that being a House member does not.
If that means Peltola stops more unqualified judicial hacks from being confirmed (ie a fourth Trump SCOTUS judge) to lifetime appointments come 2027, I'm all for it.
I don't even want her to be a reliable Democratic vote. She can be half as conservative as Manchin and that's fine. She should just be with us on social democratic bills like a public option, junked part of BBB, abortion rights and judicial nominations.
CA-Gov, Rob Bonta's brief run for CA Gov. is over. He's leaving the Gov. race, and will run for AG re-election. This will disappoint those who were eyeing an open AG race to jump into.
This race is such a mess... I would probably be most inclined to support Becerra or Steyer at this point. Interested in when RL Miller releases the Climate Hawks endorsements.
oh hai! We don't endorse in CA-Gov. I personally am leaning Porter or Steyer but need to sit down and talk with both of them. I'm on Team Never Becerra.
I don't live in California, so I won't be able to use this information, but out of curiosity why do you dislike Becerra? Generally I've heard him talked about favorably
I respect what Eric Swalwell is doing in his gubernatorial run and believe he would be a competent and focused Governor. However, I'm likely not going to vote for him in the primary because of his unwillingness to go hard with tech regulation (especially with AI regulation).
Yeah, Ventura just seems to have a big ego but he is at least anti-MAGA when it matters. Not to crap on his term as governor but that seemed like a novelty candidate situation that didn’t really pan out plus he is in his mid-70s now, I doubt he would get much traction if he ran today.
Ventura was in a much different state of mind and age back when he ran for Governor. He's become more cranky since he left office and goes after the system a lot to the degree where it's more about anger and getting attention than any real productive discourage.
However, Ventura may very well have been worn out in recent years because he was defamed by Chris Kyle, the asshole Navy SEAL sniper who had no remorse for his actions. Ventura won the lawsuit but the years long ordeal may have taken a tool on him emotionally.
I literally just said they're both narcissists, not that they're clones of each other. We have lots of Democratic politicians who also feel entitled to their positions as well.
Arnold Schwarzenegger was a far better Governor than Jesse Ventura was. Jerry Brown cleaned up his budget deficit mess and Schwarzenegger did have an ego at times, cheated on Maria Shriver and was getting too grandiose with his proposition push in 2005. However, he had a good working relationship with State Senate Pro Tem John Burton, brought in even Democrats to serve in his administration and successfully fought against the Bush Administration over the CA EPA's ability to regulate greenhouse gases.
It was interesting how Ventura had his own talk show during the 2003 California Gubernatorial Recall Election and warned Ahnold from running in the race based on his own experience.
As a Minnesotan, I like Klobuchar in the Senate where she is a decent, steady presence who gets things done without fanfare. I would also absolutely support her if she runs for governor. Let me tell you that Minnesota owes Jesse Ventura absolutely nothing. IMO, he made a mess of things last time he was in office and I don’t want to go through that again. Plus, he is too old to try it again. RIP, Jesse.
Klobochuar also has been in the Senate since 2006 and has survived multiple re-election bids with no issues. Has crossover appeal and would make a very competent Governor.
After all, Mark Dayton became Governor after being Senator.
The Democratic Party needs to get its act together and turn this 12-point swing into a massive voter registration drive – recruiting new voters and getting existing voters to register as Democrats!
I want Republicans to be shocked on 11/3/26 across the country when independents/unaffiliated break for the Democratic candidates by massive margins. NC Rs bragged about them having more registered party voters than Democrats last week, but their voter percentage is the same. Whereas the number of unaffiliated voters have grown.
I'm curious to see how particular swing districts would be affected in this case. California's swing House districts (namely those currently with House Republicans in office) no doubt are going to see among the biggest swing to the Democratic Party's side but in states like FL, GA and TX, that's where I'm paying close attention to.
St. Charles County, Missouri Judge and Elvis impersonator Michael Thornhill removed from the bench by the Missouri Supreme Court:
"The Missouri Supreme Court voted Monday to remove St. Charles County Judge Michael Thornhill from the bench.
The state’s highest court, in a unanimous ruling, said that Thornhill could no longer remain a judge in part because he made repeated political statements in the courtroom. His comments included discussing candidates and ballot issues he supported.
Thornhill, a Republican, made national headlines earlier this year after photos of him dressed as Elvis Presley circulated online."
Although he's been removed from the bench, a Republican Elvis impersonator as an actual judge is totally on brand for Missouri.
So the primary ballots here in NC go out today... early in person voting starts mid-February. Should be interesting to see whether the Carolina Forward-endorsed primary legislative candidates like Dr. Rodney Sadler and Veleria Levy oust Carla Cunningham and Nasif Majeed.
Still not clear what you mean. I know Henry Kissinger had many protégés. But who, pray, are the protégés of Ms Rice? I know of none – unless she had piano students after withdrawing from politics.
Fetterman is toast in 2028 against any reasonable primary challenger (FWIW, registered Republicans/independents can't cross over to vote for him due to the state's "closed" primaries).
Not just toast but beyond toast. Fetterman's support for the U.S. buying Greenland may have officially sealed the deal for him to be primaried out.
According to what I've read about those who originally supported him in PA, plenty of residents already were embarrassed. Certainly Conor Lamb would be a leading Senate candidate but he's certainly not going to be the anointed type as the field of challengers is likely going to be crowded.
If I were in his shoes, I would have retired long ago if I knew my health problems were as significant as Fetterman's. In fact, I would have dropped out of the 2022 Senate Primary Race before it ended.
She knows she's not the right fit for the Congressional seat, but someone more moderate and tailored for TN-07 could narrow her 9 point deficit in November.
As you've been part of my journey, I wanted to share my next steps with you.
First, running for this special election was the honor of a lifetime. This race proved something important: with real investment and serious organizing, so-called “red states” can compete. We built a growing coalition of people fed up with chaos, corruption, and an out-of-control cost of living—without sacrificing our values or our communities.
Second, I need to be honest about the personal cost of this race. I experienced daily violent rape and death threats, my family was harassed and digitally stalked, all of which has taken an immense toll on my emotional and physical health. After many conversations with my family, team, and constituents, I’ve decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for TN-07 again; instead, I'll run for reelection to my State House seat.
Looking ahead, we plan to honor our campaign commitments while transitioning the campaign committee into an organizing project called Unrigged, which will support my organizing work in Tennessee as I spend the next few years building the coalition I need to run for an even higher office.
If you live in Tennessee, I hope you’ll plug into state and local politics as the General Assembly begins and 2026 campaigns start to launch. I plan to launch a cohort at the end of January, where you can learn about the Tennessee Legislature and continue enhancing your political education. (You can find that eventual announcement on my legislative Substack.)
There are no shortcuts to power in Tennessee—only people, relationships, and real work done over time. And every time we narrow the margins, we get closer to the change our communities deserve.
"NH SENATE: 2016 spoiler candidate Aaron Day is seriously weighing another 3rd-party run to sink the eventual Republican nominee and amplify his anti-technocratic message
Day garnered nearly 18,000 votes, or 2.4%, in the 2016 Senate race and claims credit for GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte losing to now-Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) by just 1,000 votes.
“In the past, I ran to be a spoiler. I’ll be clear: if my name is on the ballot, Sununu won’t win,” Day said. “If I get 2% or 3% of the vote, that’s it for him.”"
If Baldwin also won by 1,000 votes i'd say those other candidates could be considered spoilers but 30,000 is too large. These 3rd party voters are usually the burn it all down types who would've skipped the race rather than vote for the 2 parties.
Fine with me if Aaron Day runs as a third party spoiler for John Sununu's chance although I think Chris Pappas is a stronger Democratic Senate Candidate than Maggie Hassan was in 2016. He could still win without Day as a spoiler.
2016 was a much different election environment than in 2026, not just because it was a presidential election year. Trump's presidency candidacy sucked out all the oxygen. Hassan may very well have been lucky to unseat Kelly Ayotte in the Senate race but if she were running this year as a first time candidate, she'd likely win by a larger margin.
Thom Tillis vows to block all Federal Reserve Board nominations after Trump’s Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Thom Tillis says he would oppose any nominee, including upcoming chair vacancy, "until this legal matter is fully resolved".
All I care about at this point is 2026 and 2028. Two Senate seats ripe for Democrats to pick up as long as the political environment remains favorable to them.
I've long thought that messing with the federal reserve was the one thing that could bring strong resistance from the GOP establishment because the money people would really hate it.
Neil de Grasse Tyson served as some kind of advisor in the G.W. Bush administration although he has always been a Democrat, and during that time, he stated that Republicans will not go after scientists because they care about money and know that if the U.S. kills scientific research, it will go the way of Baghdad in the 12th and 13th centuries. He was wrong. They have, and it will destroy American innovation.
You could sense this in the SCOTUS arguments last month about presidential power to fire members of the FTC and other agencies when Brett Kavanaugh made a particular point to ask about the Federal Reserve, and an earlier (unsigned) opinion that allowed Trump to fire members of some other boards specified that the Fed was different: “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the opinion said.
A general question: Why does Rahm Emanuel get dozens of news pieces and glowing profiles written about him every month in most major liberal magazines and papers? Not a single person I know (moderate, liberal or progressive) cares about what he's up to or likes him, I mean, there ought to be some reason for this? Is it just that he says what the media establishment wants to hear.
He was interviewed on Pod Save America about a month ago and I listened to it for whatever reason and it was a lot of the same centrist BS. The reason is that he's running for something that we can't discuss here.
I just don’t get why anyone would think being the unpopular former mayor of Chicago almost a decade ago would be a platform for any political relevance today.
He likes to talk, has a long contact list from being WHCOS, and journos want easy rage clicks to show as metrics to their lazy bosses who just want to layoff everyone.
Because (quoting a Bluesky user named @cwilhelm24) "The pundit class loves a Democrat who feels the same way about Democrats that they do. He's this cycle's 'No Labels.'"
Or maybe Emanuel loves the sound of his voice and being in the news. After being a disaster as Mayor of Chicago with the teachers and his record in shutting down public schools in black and latino neighborhoods, you'd think he'd want to stay out of the limelight for a while.
Lieutenant Gov. Garlin Gilchrist II has ended his bid for governor and is now running for Michigan Secretary of State.
https://www.wilx.com/2026/01/12/lieutenant-gov-garlin-gilchrist-announces-run-michigan-secretary-state/
Should have primaried Thanedar since the start!
Donavan McKinney will make a good congressman, though.
They have the same politics but he'd be a stronger candidate.
Based on his background he’s a good fit for SOS
Aren't some of the current candidates better qualified? The thinking esp of Aghogho Edevbie (current deputy secretary of state) and Barbara Byrum (county clerk overseeing the capital) as more qualified on paper. Gilchrist got famous for a strong primary challenge to be Detroit city clerk, but I don't really get what puts him above them since he didn't win it. Not sure what relevant exp Adam Hollier has either.
Yeah. Hoping Barb Byrum wins here, but I don't care much either way.
He was Director of Innovation under Detriot's CIO and developed an app to allow residents to report issues to city officials, and ran for Detroit City Clerk in 2017, so I wouldn't say he's unqualified by any stretch.
Didn't say unqualified. Two of them are on paper much more qualified.
Well, that will end up being for the delegates to decide.
Yeah, I'm very obviously responding to Henrik.
Probably the smartest move for him. He wasn't gaining traction in the gov primary but might have a good chance at SOS.
Seems to have poor political instincts. Passed up on MI-13 and the senate primary that had no clear front runner instead tried going up against Benson who was the overwhelming favorite from the start. Best of luck to him on SoS but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him falter there as well.
Peltola is in https://bsky.app/profile/politico.com/post/3mca3zx3ylv2e
Ah, The Downballot already reported on this on Bsky so here is a better link to The Downballot Bsky post instead of politico. https://bsky.app/profile/the-downballot.com/post/3mca4iint322e
Great news! Democrats are fielding an incredibly strong slate of candidates for Senate in 2026! It’s entirely within the realm of possibility that we regain the Senate as well as flip the House!
Now let's hope Alaska and Ohio don't fail us...I have faith in Maine and North Carolina
Sullivan won his upset Senate race in 2014 by only 2 points, which is the weakest showing in a very R-leaning midterm. He didn't improve his margin much in 2020.
If anything, Alaska is hurting BAD (probably as much as Nevada if not worse) due to Trump's tariffs and horrid immigration 'policy.'
I don't have faith in anyone, especially not the American people, but NC-Senate seems like a good bet.
Yep.
Need to go 4 of 5 in NC, ME, IA, OH, AK.
Plus hold GA, NH, MI, & MN.
If it gets really wavey, maybe TX or FL as well.
If the FL Sen seat flips blue, then we'll have nabbed the IA and OH seats too.
Not necessarily. Rural and working class whites aren't as elastic and anti incumbent as Latinos
There's a sizeable minority of Latinos in Ohio. Not the case in Iowa, but maybe there's enough disgusted Rs that stay home this November.
I think Texas is about as likely as Iowa. Florida is a big step back from the rest of the list.
Not sure I agree with this. Iowa has shown a reversion to form in special elections last year while Texas has been hostile for 30+ years and took a big leap in the wrong direction in 2024. And given that the odds are no less than 50-50 that Jasmine Crockett will be the Democratic nominee in Texas in November, I'd rate Iowa as a likelier win than Texas. Victory in either would likely require an inside straight though.
Texas will very likely have a weaker republican nominee than Iowa. Potentially substantially weaker. And yes, if Crockett is our nominee I'd be sufficiently pessimistic that I'd all but give up on the seat, I'll agree there. I'm working on the assumption we get Talarico. Which I concede is an assumption, I'm not sure how much of one -- I don't think we can rightfully say that Crockett is at least a 50% odds on favorite with how recently that primary got scrambled by her entry and Allred's withdrawal. I don't think we'll really know until the eve of the primary, which isn't a helpful time table but it is what it is.
Also worth noting that the TX-18 special jungle primary was a massive overperformance for us too, comparable to the Iowa specials. Not apples to apples unfortunately due to the jungle primary nature, but the only republican got 6.7% of the vote. In the 2024 general the republican candidate got 30.4% of the vote.
All told I think it's in the same playing field as Iowa.
Don't forget Nebraska. Seems more likely to me than Texas or Florida based on 2024 results.
Wish we had candidates in Florida and Montana though, our slate is terrible there.
As a Hoosier, I feel your pain, as we did not have decent candidates for Senate in the 2024 primary and now have MAGA Jim Banks as the junior senator.
I wouldn’t write off Jennifer Jenkins just yet. She could give Moody a run for her money.
https://x.com/MaryPeltola/status/2010699590128071017
Here's the Xitter link.
LFG!!!
I hope dems are strategic this time and convince any lower tier dem who makes it into the top 4 primary to drop out so Peltola is the only dem in the general election. Republicans did that in 2024 until Begich was the only republican.
How much do people think she'll raise in her first 24 hours? My bet is $2 million.
I read that Sullivan has $4.8 million cash on hand. She'll probably outraise him in a week if not by Friday.
As usual, Politico is downplaying Peltola's chances of winning the Senate race, conveniently ignoring the fact she won statewide in her House race both times in 2022. She only lost in 2024 due to Rs coalescing around Begich and it being a R-leaning year.
She's lead in 3 polls already!
I understand why she vacillated between running for governor and the U.S. Senate seat. The governor's race had her winning handily (and she would be able to stay home), but narrowly winning a 6-year Senate term means that she has more clout than a House seat and can sink a Trump judicial nomination.
Will Thomas and Alito retire if we win the Senate in the period preceding the inauguration of new senators?
I'm hoping they're egotistical and think they can stymie a future Democratic presidency.
If they don't retire this summer I don't think they're retiring at all.
The whispers in legal world is that Alito is retiring this summer but Thomas will be on the bench until he cant' be there anymore.
God may well retire them for us – and if so, hopefully at an opportune time.
I respect the choice. Like Sherrod, if you really see the threat Trump poses and the damage he's doing and has already done, then it's your obligation to run for Senate even if it will be a hard race and a longshot
Crystal Ball Senate rating change
Alaska moves from Safe Republican to Leans Republican after former Rep. Mary Peltola (D) enters race against Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)
My gut feeling is that Peltola will win this. And that Mary Peltola, in addition to being a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate, will work with Murkowski to further sensible legislation for the benefit of Alaska.
My exact sentiments. Taking into consideration 2022 was a good year for Democrats absent of losing the House, Peltola got one of the few House wins that year considering how Nick Begich and Sarah Palin split the votes. 2026 may give her more room to work with than in 2022.
Peltola wouldn't exactly change how she would serve in the Senate as she already as a House member served AK at-large. The only difference would be her position and the influence it would wield that being a House member does not.
If that means Peltola stops more unqualified judicial hacks from being confirmed (ie a fourth Trump SCOTUS judge) to lifetime appointments come 2027, I'm all for it.
I don't even want her to be a reliable Democratic vote. She can be half as conservative as Manchin and that's fine. She should just be with us on social democratic bills like a public option, junked part of BBB, abortion rights and judicial nominations.
And to kill the filibuster.
CA-Gov, Rob Bonta's brief run for CA Gov. is over. He's leaving the Gov. race, and will run for AG re-election. This will disappoint those who were eyeing an open AG race to jump into.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/01/11/rob-bonta-passes-on-run-for-california-governor-00721784
This race is such a mess... I would probably be most inclined to support Becerra or Steyer at this point. Interested in when RL Miller releases the Climate Hawks endorsements.
oh hai! We don't endorse in CA-Gov. I personally am leaning Porter or Steyer but need to sit down and talk with both of them. I'm on Team Never Becerra.
Noted!
I don't live in California, so I won't be able to use this information, but out of curiosity why do you dislike Becerra? Generally I've heard him talked about favorably
let's start with the $39,200 maximum contribution from Chevron, is that enough?
You don't or haven't yet endorsed for governor? If never, why not?
I believe Climate Hawks only endorses for house and senate.
No state legislative races or mayoral elections?
I respect what Eric Swalwell is doing in his gubernatorial run and believe he would be a competent and focused Governor. However, I'm likely not going to vote for him in the primary because of his unwillingness to go hard with tech regulation (especially with AI regulation).
As Governor, Newsom vetoed AI regulation.
I have heard that Buffy Wicks hasn't decided whether to run or not. She's really good on policy and should honestly be President someday.
“I am owed a second [term].”
-Jesse Ventura
I’m sorry, what?
That is not how elections work sir.
But that's how narcissists like Ventura and Trump think.
Ventura is a tool, but he is far from Trump.
Yeah, Ventura just seems to have a big ego but he is at least anti-MAGA when it matters. Not to crap on his term as governor but that seemed like a novelty candidate situation that didn’t really pan out plus he is in his mid-70s now, I doubt he would get much traction if he ran today.
Ventura was in a much different state of mind and age back when he ran for Governor. He's become more cranky since he left office and goes after the system a lot to the degree where it's more about anger and getting attention than any real productive discourage.
However, Ventura may very well have been worn out in recent years because he was defamed by Chris Kyle, the asshole Navy SEAL sniper who had no remorse for his actions. Ventura won the lawsuit but the years long ordeal may have taken a tool on him emotionally.
I literally just said they're both narcissists, not that they're clones of each other. We have lots of Democratic politicians who also feel entitled to their positions as well.
(Crockett and Krishnamoorthi)
Arnold Schwarzenegger was a far better Governor than Jesse Ventura was. Jerry Brown cleaned up his budget deficit mess and Schwarzenegger did have an ego at times, cheated on Maria Shriver and was getting too grandiose with his proposition push in 2005. However, he had a good working relationship with State Senate Pro Tem John Burton, brought in even Democrats to serve in his administration and successfully fought against the Bush Administration over the CA EPA's ability to regulate greenhouse gases.
It was interesting how Ventura had his own talk show during the 2003 California Gubernatorial Recall Election and warned Ahnold from running in the race based on his own experience.
The guy has always been a nutcase. I think there is a little bit of "absence makes the heart grow fonder" about him. He was a joke.
I agree with a lot of Jesse Venturas opinions, but I don't live in Minnesota. I think most voters want to move forward with new faces and new ideas.
Tbf, Klobuchar isn’t a new face with new ideas either.
I wish Steve Simon would run. He seems alright.
Simon, ideologically, is great. He is also the sort of politician for people who think Tony Evers is too strong of a personality.
If I were a MN voter, I'd want her over Ventura.
As a Minnesotan, I like Klobuchar in the Senate where she is a decent, steady presence who gets things done without fanfare. I would also absolutely support her if she runs for governor. Let me tell you that Minnesota owes Jesse Ventura absolutely nothing. IMO, he made a mess of things last time he was in office and I don’t want to go through that again. Plus, he is too old to try it again. RIP, Jesse.
Klobochuar also has been in the Senate since 2006 and has survived multiple re-election bids with no issues. Has crossover appeal and would make a very competent Governor.
After all, Mark Dayton became Governor after being Senator.
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2010694856767623639
GALLUP Q4 PARTY ID (With indie leaners)
🟦 Democrat: 48%
🟥 Republican: 40%
——
Party ID Trends
• Q4 2024: R+4 (GOP 47-43)
• Q4 2025: D+8 (Dem 48-40)
Net 12-point swing towards Democrats
The Democratic Party needs to get its act together and turn this 12-point swing into a massive voter registration drive – recruiting new voters and getting existing voters to register as Democrats!
I want Republicans to be shocked on 11/3/26 across the country when independents/unaffiliated break for the Democratic candidates by massive margins. NC Rs bragged about them having more registered party voters than Democrats last week, but their voter percentage is the same. Whereas the number of unaffiliated voters have grown.
I'm curious to see how particular swing districts would be affected in this case. California's swing House districts (namely those currently with House Republicans in office) no doubt are going to see among the biggest swing to the Democratic Party's side but in states like FL, GA and TX, that's where I'm paying close attention to.
St. Charles County, Missouri Judge and Elvis impersonator Michael Thornhill removed from the bench by the Missouri Supreme Court:
"The Missouri Supreme Court voted Monday to remove St. Charles County Judge Michael Thornhill from the bench.
The state’s highest court, in a unanimous ruling, said that Thornhill could no longer remain a judge in part because he made repeated political statements in the courtroom. His comments included discussing candidates and ballot issues he supported.
Thornhill, a Republican, made national headlines earlier this year after photos of him dressed as Elvis Presley circulated online."
Although he's been removed from the bench, a Republican Elvis impersonator as an actual judge is totally on brand for Missouri.
https://www.kcur.org/news/2025-12-30/missouri-supreme-court-rules-to-remove-judge-best-known-for-his-elvis-presley-costumes
Great, now that POS governor gets to appoint his replacement.
An Elvis Costello impersonator would never have acted in such an uncouth manner! Just saying.
So the primary ballots here in NC go out today... early in person voting starts mid-February. Should be interesting to see whether the Carolina Forward-endorsed primary legislative candidates like Dr. Rodney Sadler and Veleria Levy oust Carla Cunningham and Nasif Majeed.
https://carolinaforward.org/blog/2026-primary-endorsements/?emci=84f54a13-b2ed-f011-8194-000d3a11f903&emdi=f19bea08-aaef-f011-8194-000d3a11f903&ceid=13375922
https://triblive.com/news/pennsylvania/dina-powell-mccormick-wife-of-u-s-sen-dave-mccormick-named-meta-president/
Dina Powell, wife of Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA), has been named president of Meta, serving alongside CEO Mark Zuckerberg.
Just more pandering from Zuck after shutting down his immigrant advocacy organization.
It's kinda funny because Powell is so steeped in globalist Republican world.
What is "globalist Republican world"? Would you kindly define and explain the term?
Condoleezza Rice protégée.
Still not clear what you mean. I know Henry Kissinger had many protégés. But who, pray, are the protégés of Ms Rice? I know of none – unless she had piano students after withdrawing from politics.
I think you can figure it out.
Those are "neocons" in the common tongue.
Neoliberalism, free trade, starve the beast.
First John Fetterman gets primaried out in 2028, next in 2030 is unseating Dave McCormick.
Fetterman is toast in 2028 against any reasonable primary challenger (FWIW, registered Republicans/independents can't cross over to vote for him due to the state's "closed" primaries).
Not just toast but beyond toast. Fetterman's support for the U.S. buying Greenland may have officially sealed the deal for him to be primaried out.
According to what I've read about those who originally supported him in PA, plenty of residents already were embarrassed. Certainly Conor Lamb would be a leading Senate candidate but he's certainly not going to be the anointed type as the field of challengers is likely going to be crowded.
I suspect he retires after one term. He doesn't seem to be enjoying the job.
If I were in his shoes, I would have retired long ago if I knew my health problems were as significant as Fetterman's. In fact, I would have dropped out of the 2022 Senate Primary Race before it ended.
Hitting that 5 year mark is a big incentive. (Pension vests at 5 years.) Unlike many senators Fetterman is not independently wealthy.
TN-7:
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/state/tennessee/davidson-county/rep-aftyn-behn-announces-she-will-not-seek-tn-07-nomination
State Rep. Aftyn Behn is not going to make another attempt at the seat -- she's running for re-election instead.
She knows she's not the right fit for the Congressional seat, but someone more moderate and tailored for TN-07 could narrow her 9 point deficit in November.
Her running for re-election could also help drive turn out in Nashville
Here is what she wrote to donors to her campaign:
Aftyn Behn for Congress
Hi Marliss,
As you've been part of my journey, I wanted to share my next steps with you.
First, running for this special election was the honor of a lifetime. This race proved something important: with real investment and serious organizing, so-called “red states” can compete. We built a growing coalition of people fed up with chaos, corruption, and an out-of-control cost of living—without sacrificing our values or our communities.
Second, I need to be honest about the personal cost of this race. I experienced daily violent rape and death threats, my family was harassed and digitally stalked, all of which has taken an immense toll on my emotional and physical health. After many conversations with my family, team, and constituents, I’ve decided not to seek the Democratic nomination for TN-07 again; instead, I'll run for reelection to my State House seat.
Looking ahead, we plan to honor our campaign commitments while transitioning the campaign committee into an organizing project called Unrigged, which will support my organizing work in Tennessee as I spend the next few years building the coalition I need to run for an even higher office.
If you live in Tennessee, I hope you’ll plug into state and local politics as the General Assembly begins and 2026 campaigns start to launch. I plan to launch a cohort at the end of January, where you can learn about the Tennessee Legislature and continue enhancing your political education. (You can find that eventual announcement on my legislative Substack.)
There are no shortcuts to power in Tennessee—only people, relationships, and real work done over time. And every time we narrow the margins, we get closer to the change our communities deserve.
Thank you for believing in us and in me.
With gratitude,
Aftyn
"NH SENATE: 2016 spoiler candidate Aaron Day is seriously weighing another 3rd-party run to sink the eventual Republican nominee and amplify his anti-technocratic message
Day garnered nearly 18,000 votes, or 2.4%, in the 2016 Senate race and claims credit for GOP incumbent Kelly Ayotte losing to now-Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-NH) by just 1,000 votes.
“In the past, I ran to be a spoiler. I’ll be clear: if my name is on the ballot, Sununu won’t win,” Day said. “If I get 2% or 3% of the vote, that’s it for him.”"
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2010747905645117571
Based!
2024 United States Senate election in Wisconsin[176]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tammy Baldwin (incumbent) 1,672,777 49.33% −6.03%
Republican Eric Hovde 1,643,996 48.48% +3.95%
Disrupt the Corruption Phil Anderson 42,315 1.25% N/A
America First Thomas Leager 28,751 0.85% N/A
Independent John Schiess (write-in) 26
Phil Anderson was right-libertarian and Leager was far right. We've successfully done it before.
https://nypost.com/2024/11/04/us-news/libertarian-senate-candidate-says-cheesy-misleading-mailer-a-rotten-democratic-trick/
If Baldwin also won by 1,000 votes i'd say those other candidates could be considered spoilers but 30,000 is too large. These 3rd party voters are usually the burn it all down types who would've skipped the race rather than vote for the 2 parties.
Idk if saying it aloud is very helpful to that mission tbqh, but I wish him luck lol
Fine with me if Aaron Day runs as a third party spoiler for John Sununu's chance although I think Chris Pappas is a stronger Democratic Senate Candidate than Maggie Hassan was in 2016. He could still win without Day as a spoiler.
2016 was a much different election environment than in 2026, not just because it was a presidential election year. Trump's presidency candidacy sucked out all the oxygen. Hassan may very well have been lucky to unseat Kelly Ayotte in the Senate race but if she were running this year as a first time candidate, she'd likely win by a larger margin.
GALLUP: How would you describe your political views?
Conservative: 35% (-2)
Moderate: 33% (-1)
Liberal: 28% (+3), was 16% in 1996
"The seven-point conservative advantage over liberals in 2025 is the smallest Gallup has measured in annual averages dating back to 1992"
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2010716896664907903
Didn’t moderate usually outnumber conservative?
A REPUBLICAN SHOWING SPINE!
Thom Tillis vows to block all Federal Reserve Board nominations after Trump’s Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Thom Tillis says he would oppose any nominee, including upcoming chair vacancy, "until this legal matter is fully resolved".
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jan/12/fed-nominations-thom-tillis-powell
(Apologies for the all-caps headline, but it’s so exceedingly rare to see such a principled stand by a Republican who is showing this much spine.)
Tillis should've done this YEARS ago. Too little too late Thommy.
Yeah, it's absolutely WONDERFUL that Tillis is doing his considering he is not running for re-election. How convenient for him!
I don't claim him or that MAGA clown Budd. Never have.
All I care about at this point is 2026 and 2028. Two Senate seats ripe for Democrats to pick up as long as the political environment remains favorable to them.
Case closed.
Now let’s see if Wicker will do the same over the absurd Greenland saber-rattling
I've long thought that messing with the federal reserve was the one thing that could bring strong resistance from the GOP establishment because the money people would really hate it.
You don’t fuck with the money
Except you do. Trump has already caused a brain drain of scientists.
Not that money - THE money. Big business could care less about scientists, they very much do care about long term bonds and inflation
Neil de Grasse Tyson served as some kind of advisor in the G.W. Bush administration although he has always been a Democrat, and during that time, he stated that Republicans will not go after scientists because they care about money and know that if the U.S. kills scientific research, it will go the way of Baghdad in the 12th and 13th centuries. He was wrong. They have, and it will destroy American innovation.
Except mad scientists. "Dr" Ben Carson appeared at the press conference RFK Jr made last week regarding the changes in dietary guidelines.
You could sense this in the SCOTUS arguments last month about presidential power to fire members of the FTC and other agencies when Brett Kavanaugh made a particular point to ask about the Federal Reserve, and an earlier (unsigned) opinion that allowed Trump to fire members of some other boards specified that the Fed was different: “The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical tradition of the First and Second Banks of the United States,” the opinion said.
The Fed is different because we say it is.
Andrew Jackson killed the Second Bank. So their reliance on that precedent is misplaced.
IN-5: Hamlet on the Wabash has filed for reelection.
https://x.com/adamwren/status/2010768770675962148?s=20
OK, but is that Rep. Spartz' final answer? She is weird enough that you never know...
Hence the nickname! Who knows?
For me, she's staying on the open-seat watch until Election Day.
A general question: Why does Rahm Emanuel get dozens of news pieces and glowing profiles written about him every month in most major liberal magazines and papers? Not a single person I know (moderate, liberal or progressive) cares about what he's up to or likes him, I mean, there ought to be some reason for this? Is it just that he says what the media establishment wants to hear.
He does? I haven't seen anything about him in a while. Thankfully.
Ohh sure he does, just search his name and check the news tab.
He was interviewed on Pod Save America about a month ago and I listened to it for whatever reason and it was a lot of the same centrist BS. The reason is that he's running for something that we can't discuss here.
Missed that interview. Did he mention that he covered up the killing of an unarmed Black teenager?
Can't stand the Pod Bros. The only podcast under their umbrella that I enjoy (in small doses) is Erin Ryan/Alyssa Mastromonco's "Hysteria."
I just don’t get why anyone would think being the unpopular former mayor of Chicago almost a decade ago would be a platform for any political relevance today.
He likes to talk, has a long contact list from being WHCOS, and journos want easy rage clicks to show as metrics to their lazy bosses who just want to layoff everyone.
You made like 5 completely valid points in one sentence.
It's admittedly a run-on lol
It looks ok to me. :-)
Because (quoting a Bluesky user named @cwilhelm24) "The pundit class loves a Democrat who feels the same way about Democrats that they do. He's this cycle's 'No Labels.'"
Rahm Emanuel? No Labels?
Or maybe Emanuel loves the sound of his voice and being in the news. After being a disaster as Mayor of Chicago with the teachers and his record in shutting down public schools in black and latino neighborhoods, you'd think he'd want to stay out of the limelight for a while.
Where to find who is running for congressional seats and for state house and senate seats in Indiana:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/01/12/whos-running-for-indianas-congressional-legislative-seats/?emci=3e3092ff-9aed-f011-8194-000d3a11f903&emdi=fa95f849-c0ef-f011-8194-000d3a11f903&ceid=630426
They plan to update weekly until the filing period ends.