Morning Digest: The GOP's meddling tour seems to be making a stopover in Jersey
A mysterious group is running ads in a key Democratic primary, and there's reason to think Republicans are behind it.
Leading Off
NJ-07
Republicans seem to be meddling in yet another Democratic House primary for a competitive House seat.
Punchbowl News’ Ally Mutnick reported Wednesday that a newly formed group called Real Change is airing ads attacking Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett, one of the four Democrats competing in the June 2 primary for New Jersey’s 7th District. This seat is held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean, who faced a tough reelection campaign even before he disappeared from public view in March.
While there’s no information yet on who is behind the group, which has already spent close to $450,000 against Bennett, it has links to another outfit that’s causing problems for House Democrats.
Liz Charboneau of the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC highlights that the mail firm for Real Change shared a Wyoming address and agent with the one working for “Lead Left,” an obscure group with ties to Republicans that has been meddling in Democratic primaries over the last month.
Lead Left is currently airing ads to boost Maureen Galindo, a sex therapist who has drawn widespread condemnation for her antisemitism, in next week’s Democratic primary runoff for Texas’ 35th District. The outfit has spent close to $1 million to try to ensure Republicans get to face Galindo instead of Bexar County Sheriff’s Deputy Johnny Garcia.
Real Change, by contrast, seems to be focused on stopping Bennett rather than elevating a particular rival. Its ad plays clips from a campaign forum where two of her primary opponents, physician Tina Shah and businessman Brian Varela, call for abolishing ICE. The audience is then told that Bennett “wouldn’t commit to abolish ICE.” (Businessman Michael Roth, the fourth Democrat in the race, is not mentioned.)
Bennett was quick to argue that the offensive shows Republicans are trying to stop her from winning the nomination to take on Kean.
“We’ve known all along that D.C. Republicans are scared to face me, so now they are resorting to lies and dark money attacks to try and stop us from flipping this seat,” Bennett said in a statement.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the most influential House super PAC on the right, did not respond to the New Jersey Globe’s inquiries asking whether it has ties to Real Change. CLF previously refused to confirm or deny any connection to Lead Left.
Real Change’s activities come as newly released internal polls show Bennett leading in the primary, though they disagree on how strong her advantage is.
Bennett on Tuesday publicized a survey from Impact Research that finds her beating Shah 36-15, with Varela and Roth taking 13% and 12%, respectively.
Shah countered the following day with her own numbers showing Bennett outpacing her just 26-23. This poll, conducted by GQR, places Varela in third with 10% as Roth takes another 7%.
Shah also began airing ads this week against the frontrunner while ignoring her other two primary opponents. The Globe says this commercial, which debuted shortly before Real Change’s ad became public, is the first negative ad from anyone in the primary.
Shah’s spot argues that Bennett, who was a registered Republican until 2016, is “hiding who she supported in Trump’s primary.” The spot continues by faulting Bennett for taking “thousands from ICE contractors to fund her campaign,” which Fox says is a reference to a pair of donations she’s accepted from Palantir employees.
The ad concludes by praising Shah as someone who “will fight ICE’s cruelty [and] Trump’s corruption.”
One prominent Democrat, though, was not happy with this commercial.
“I’ve been neutral in this race in my old district,” former Rep. Tom Malinowski, who flipped the 7th District in 2018 and narrowly lost to Kean in 2022, began in a social media post. Malinowski, though, stated that “[f]alsely associating a fellow Democrat with ICE is shameful and disqualifying for Tina Shah.”
The Downballot Podcast
Nevada Attorney General Aaron Ford previews his race for governor
Nevada is set to host one of the most competitive governor’s races in the country this fall as Attorney General Aaron Ford takes on incumbent Republican Joe Lombardo. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay talk to Ford about how he got into politics, how Trump and Lombardo have made life hard for Nevada families, and how he’s going to work to bring costs down as governor.
This week has also seen plenty of primary action, highlighted by President Trump’s revenge tour against Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy and Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie—and with Texas Sen. John Cornyn up next. We discuss how these defeats of Republican incumbents will make Congress even harder to govern, and also highlight some other key primary results in Pennsylvania and Georgia.
Election Recaps
AL-Sen
Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson learned Wednesday that he secured the second spot in the June 16 Republican primary runoff for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat. Hudson will be the underdog against Rep. Barry Moore, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate.
Moore took first place on Tuesday with 39%, while Hudson beat out Attorney General Steve Marshall, who had once been the frontrunner, 26-25 for second place. Another 4% went to businessman Rodney Walker, who endorsed Moore the day after the first round of voting.
AL State House
Former U.S. Rep. Mo Brooks’ comeback campaign ended Tuesday when Alabama state Rep. James Lomax defeated him 61-39 in the Republican primary.
Brooks’ landslide loss for a spot in the state legislature came a little more than four years after Donald Trump unceremoniously yanked his “Complete and Total Endorsement” from Brooks’ struggling campaign for the U.S. Senate.
Brooks, who went on to badly lose the GOP nomination to Katie Britt, came out of involuntary retirement this year when he decided to challenge Lomax. Republicans in his Huntsville-area legislative seat, however, weren’t eager to help Brooks, 72, get one more opportunity to hold political office.
Redistricting Roundup
SC Redistricting
The South Carolina House of Representatives approved a new Republican congressional gerrymander in the early hours of Wednesday morning that would dismantle the state’s lone plurality-Black district.
The proposal now goes to the Senate, where Majority Leader Shane Massey has spoken out against the redraw. The Trump administration, though, remains determined to pressure lawmakers to fall in line.
The proposed map would transform the safely Democratic 6th District, which Rep. Jim Clyburn has represented since 1993, into a predominantly white constituency that Donald Trump would have carried 55-44. The new lines would also slightly increase Trump’s margin of victory in the open 1st District, which Democrats are targeting this year, from 56-43 to 56-42.
The redistricting plan would also delay U.S. House primaries until Aug. 18, with Sept. 1 set aside for runoffs if needed. Candidates who filed to run under the existing congressional lines would still be listed on the June 9 primary ballot, but votes would not be counted in those contests.
Governors
KY-Gov, KY-04
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie told MSNBC hours after his primary defeat that he “wouldn’t rule out” appearing on the ballot again, though he expressed openness to just about every level of office possible. Massie said he could run for president of the United States, governor of Kentucky, Congress, or for a city council post.
House
AZ-05
Two women have accused former Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb of sending them sexual messages and threatening to use law enforcement if they spoke out, allegations that surfaced in a new story published by the Arizona Republic on Wednesday.
Lamb, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement for Arizona’s open 5th District, has long been the subject of rumors about his personal life. The paper says that during his successful 2020 reelection campaign, a rival distributed flyers alleging Lamb, who is married, “has sent pornographic pictures of himself to women and has made threats against those who complain.”
Lamb, who The Republic writes “has publicly denied allegations of sexual impropriety in the past,” did not respond to the paper’s inquiries for this story. His attorney last month told The Republic, “The campaign is aware that various false, misleading, and potentially defamatory allegations have circulated online for years.”
Lamb faces Daniel Keenan, a construction contractor who has self-funded over $1.4 million, in the July primary for this reliably Republican constituency in the Phoenix suburbs.
FL-28
Former Rep. Joe Garcia is not ruling out a possible comeback campaign against Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez.
Florida Politics’ Janelle Irwin Taylor writes that “the rumor mill is churning with talk of Democratic operatives” trying to recruit Garcia for Florida’s 28th District in the Miami area. Garcia did not comment when Taylor contacted him, though he acknowledged he’d heard such speculation about his future.
Garcia won his only term in Congress several maps ago by unseating Republican Rep. David Rivera in 2012 for what was then the 26th District.
Republican Carlos Curbelo, though, defeated Garcia 51-49 two years later, and Curbelo decisively won their rematch 53-41 in 2016. Curbelo himself would go on to lose reelection to Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell the following cycle, while Gimenez beat Mucarsel-Powell in 2020.
Republican gerrymandering and South Florida’s huge swing to the right in recent years have made recent congressional elections considerably less exciting, and Gimenez is now seeking a fourth term in a constituency Donald Trump would have carried 62-37 in 2024.
Democrats, though, hope that Trump’s struggles with Latino voters will give them the chance to reverse those dramatic losses. Businessman Hector Mujica and Navy veteran Phil Ehr, who badly lost to Gimenez two years ago, are competing in the August Democratic primary for the 28th District.
MI-13
Michigan election officials say that realtor John Goci has failed to make the August Democratic primary ballot for the 13th District, news that comes shortly after they also disqualified Detroit City Councilwoman Mary Waters for lack of signatures. Waters has said she will appeal, while Goci does not appear to have said anything publicly.
But unless something changes, Rep. Shri Thanedar and state Rep. Donavan McKinney are set to be the only Democratic candidates on the ballot this summer.
VA-01
Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor has received an endorsement from Sen. Mark Warner for her campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Rob Wittman in Virginia’s 1st District.
Taylor’s only notable primary opponent is Navy veteran Jason Knapp, who reaffirmed he was running here after the state Supreme Court prevented the proposed Democratic-drawn map from going into effect.
Obituaries
Barney Frank
Former Rep. Barney Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who was one of the most prominent gay elected officials in the country and an influential voice for financial reform, died Tuesday at the age of 86. The Boston Globe has a detailed look at Frank’s long and groundbreaking political career in its obituary.
Poll Pile
ME-Sen: Pan Atlantic Research:
Graham Platner (D): 48, Susan Collins (R-inc): 41. (March: 44-40 Platner)
CO-Gov (R): Cygnal for Freedom IEC (pro-Victor Marx):
Victor Marx: 42, Barbara Kirkmeyer: 13, Scott Bottoms: 6.
ME-Gov (D): Pan Atlantic:
Nirav Shah: 29, Angus King III: 24, Troy Jackson: 12, Shenna Bellows: 10, Hannah Pingree: 9.
The firm said that, after simulating ranked choice, “Shah finishes ahead of King in the final round by roughly ten points among ballots still in play.”
NY-07 (D): Emerson College for PIX 11:
Claire Valdez: 23, Antonio Reynoso: 21, Julie Won: 13, undecided: 43.
NY-10 (D): Emerson:
Brad Lander: 57, Dan Goldman (inc): 23.
NY-12 (D): Hart Research Associates for Alex Bores:
Alex Bores: 21, Micah Lasher: 20, Jack Schlossberg: 17, George Conway: 10, Nina Schwalbe: 3, undecided: 28.
March: Schlossberg: 22, Bores: 19, Lasher: 14, Conway: 10, Schwalbe: 4.
NY-12 (D): Emerson:
Lasher: 22, Bores: 20, Schlossberg: 11, Conway: 10, other candidates 3% or less, undecided: 32.
PA-10: Normington Petts for Janelle Stelson:
Janelle Stelson (D): 51, Scott Perry (R-inc): 45.
The poll was conducted April 20-23.
UT-02 (R): Tarrance Group for Blake Moore:
Blake Moore (inc): 63, Karianne Lisonbee: 29.
Los Angeles, CA Mayor (nonpartisan primary): Cygnal:
Karen Bass (inc): 25, Spencer Pratt: 22, Nithya Raman: 18, other candidates 5% or less.
Bass and Raman are Democrats, while Pratt is a Republican.
Cygnal did not mention a client. The poll’s writeup and memo indicates support for Pratt.
Washington, D.C. Mayor (D): TrueDot for City Cast DC:
Janeese Lewis George: 39, Kenyan McDuffie: 34, Gary Goodweather: 7, other candidates 5% or less.
Washington, D.C. Delegate (D): TrueDot:
Robert White: 38, Brooke Pinto: 21, other candidates 5% or less.
the NY-10 poll seems off, as the previous poll had Goldman with 42%. This is awful if true.