Wait a minute. He’s complaining if they’re Democrats and he’s complaining if they run separately. The man who helped give us Speaker Gingrich seems awfully confused.
Unlike Nigel Farage, Begala once actually lost an election to a cartoon character (then was given the win on the technical grounds that a cartoon character was ineligible)...
Speaking of ostensibly Democratic organizations which have been a cancer to our party, I was pleased to see that Begala is no longer a board member of DMFI.
Maybe we need to run more cartoon characters. Hank Hill was always somewhat conservative, but friendly with Ann Richards and distinctly non-Trumpy. He could at least be a Bulwark-type. Run him for the other TX Senate seat.
I mean...I'm no fan of the DSA, but this is a pretty extreme statement. Uncommitted didn't flip anything to Trump and Stein didn't cost Clinton the election in 2016. Nader probably did help Bush win, but it's not really clear to me that his support and today's DSA have all that big an overlap.
Attacks on Green candidacies are valid and welcome. Blaming the DSA, who choose to run as Democrats, for Nader and Stein is not. We're here to discuss and analyze elections, not post irrelevant attacks on wings of the party we dislike.
It won’t get the top billing, but the Freedom Caucus losing the vast majority of the GOP primaries in the WY State Legislature is a great result. Showing the farthest right crazies that nobody likes them even in one of the most conservative states is a way to stop and turn back the rightward slide of the public over the past decade
Yes, it's important if the Republican Party is ever to be revived as even a slightly legitimate organization. I'd prefer for it to be disbanded as a subversive organization that injured national security, like the Nazi Party was officially disbanded in Germany after the war, but that won't happen.
That their opposition was bankrolled by Americans for Prosperity puts this in the proper context of two far-right extremist groups jockeying for control of the levers of power. Hate to be in a position where the Koch astroturf is the lesser of two evils, but that's where we are.
Even as someone who is more Moderate, I'm glad that Nixon won. I love the triumph of good old-fashioned shoe leather over millions raised and a national profile and I don't think it particularly hurts our odds of an upset, which were always long. Hopefully this is a lesson to the party establishment that if they want to get their candidates over the finish line they need to connect with actual voters.
Also, this injects some life into what would have been an incredibly bland and virtually Republican-lite top of the ticket. Nixon will create some enthusiasm among younger and black voters that would otherwise not have been there.
Hopefully the FL Democratic Party can get invigorated energy so it can do more to turn out the base and even get better quality candidates running statewide.
I think this helps turns out POC, especially Black folks, and progressives who would otherwise sit out the election due to the top of the ticket being a former Republican and a carpetbagger moderate. It can help Jolly if his election is close.
I don't think anyone who's highly political would sit it out. But there's plenty of more marginal, low propensity voters who need someone who actually excites them to encourage them to get to the polls.
(In these days of negative partisanship, that person can be your opponent, but it's better if you're also happy to vote for your guy or gal.)
There was never a chance of an upset but Nixon as nominee seems to me more likely to facilitate a collapse where every embattled Democrat is virtually assured of defeat. Pretty safe bet Jared Moskowitz was hoping for a Vindman win, and is lamenting the Nixon win.
Nixon notably endorsed his opponent, which does not bode well for her general election sensibilities. I'm not going to completely count out the 3 redistricted reps + FL-22, but gaining seats feels off the table, and she's clearly going to be a net negative most places.
Not quite sure why having one centrist and one liberal leading the two big statewide races could lead to a downballot collapse whereas two centrists would have a better chance of keeping the House results respectable. The worst midterm collapses I've observed have been years without a senate race where one side essentially forfeited the gov race. 2014 NV-Gov the prime example here, where the Dem candidate technically lost to "none of the above" and doesn't even have a wikipedia page. Centrist or liberal mattered not, that cake was baked because Dems just didn't even think there was a reason to show up.
The line of reasoning is that Nixon, who is a member of the DSA, could be used as "proof" that all Democrats secretly love Castro and hate Jews or whatever (and I'm not saying Nixon believes those things, but rather a few people in the DSA do), hurting more moderate Democrats. Republicans certainty have accused the Democrats of being socialist/communist to win Cuban and other Hispanic voters in 2020 and 2024, and giving them any form of ammunition may be dangerous.
I mean, that's pretty speculative. One could just as easily say that having a more leftist candidate on the ballot allows the other candidates to differentiate themselves by saying "see I'm a Moderate, I disagree with our Senate nominee on these three issues." Hakeem Jeffries gave an interview recently where he did just that: denounced a couple planks of the DSA platform to show that mainline Dems were more Moderate.
I don't think that type of differentiation would really work on most voters who'd be put off by Nixon. I don't see any reason to believe Jefferies' rhetoric is going to accomplish much.
I generally agree that it's potentially positive as a wakeup call and likely won't impact the result. That said, we have probably taken the chance of a FL-Sen upset from 10-15% to 1% with this choice.
Also this prevents millions from being vaporized on a contest which Democrats weren't going to win anyway. With Republicans having a disproportionate advantage in fundraising coupled with the continued dysfunction at Ken Martin's DNC we can't afford to waste millions on feel good candidacies like we did in Florida in 2022 with Val Demings and with Amy McGrath/Jamie Harrison in 2020.
I know some folks were hoping Cory Mills would win the primary to make FL-7 a potential flip for us, but honestly I’m glad that a despicable person like that is going to be out of Congress entirely. While going against worse candidates is an advantage (see Ken Paxton), in my opinion having straight up evil deplorable people in elected positions of power spewing and normalizing hate speech is one of the biggest reasons we are in the position we are today in this country.
Most the folks on this site probably agree that GOP politicians mostly all have bad positions and hold some disgusting views, but the MAGA types that project xenophobia and transphobia all over social media and normalize that to millions of people are the worst culprits and need to be taken out of the public eye whenever possible in my view. Even if he is a better candidate for us to flip the district it’s not worth the risk of having Cory Mills in Congress for two more years
I am genuinely surprised that Angie Nixon won the FL-Sen Democratic primary, and I'm even more surprised that Nixon carried Miami-Dade County, which is definitely not the first place anyone thinks of being receptive to voting for a democratic socialist. I like to say that a socialist couldn't win a socialist primary in Miami-Dade, yet a democratic socialist won Miami-Dade in a Democratic primary!
I genuinely don't think Nixon will come close to winning the Florida U.S. Senate race unless the bottom completely falls out for the GOP very late in the campaign, and I would have said the same thing if Vindman won the primary.
But credit Ms. Nixon, a union organizer, for knowing how to harness the enthusiasm of grass-roots Democrats and volunteers — and deftly using social media — to inform them about her candidacy.
A final weekend push in South Florida, home to many Democratic voters even as much of the region has trended toward Republicans, appears to have paid off: Ms. Nixon, who is from Jacksonville, defeated Mr. Vindman in Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, and in neighboring Broward County, where he lives.
In contrast to the MI/WI primaries, where Black voters were more likely to vote for the moderate candidate, here Black voters chose the more progressive candidate, which helps explain the result.
Completely unrelated to politics, but House of Villains, a semi parody of reality shows, hosted by Joel McHale, is my favorite show I discovered this year.
It's hard to say if there's a trend because this system was only used in 2022 and 2024, and in 2022 she only took 37% in the primary because nobody knew her yet, so that's not a useful data point. But in 2024 her vote share actually went down from the primary. She took 51% in the primary, but in the general election she took 46% in the first round and 49% in the final post-RCV round
I wonder if in 2024, the reason her vote share went down had something to do with Trump doing what he does best and bringing out low propensity voters?
Different state, but I recall that in 1998, in WA-1, republican representative Rick White won the all party primary, but went on to lose the general to Jay Inslee.
It's pretty well established that Dems generally gain over their top-2 primary results in WA and CA. It's not as clear in ranked choice states like AK and ME.
AK-Sen: Though maintaining he is not a Democratic plant, Dan J. Sullivan (not the incumbent, the fisherman from Petersburg) admits he voted for Democratic presidential nominees as well as Mary Peltola, who he's now running against in November. He also voted for the senator's independent opponent in 2020 as well as his Republican colleague Lisa Murkowski in 2022.
For the Miami Ballot item: not clear how the election in 2033 is for a 3-year term if the elections move to even-numbered years in 2034. Isn't that 1 year?
Based on primary turnout between the parties (not a perfect barometer, I know) I’d say Moskowitz is the clear favorite in FL-25. It’s been a little under the radar, but hope the DCCC isn’t sleeping on Rodriguez in FL-27; Dems there nearly matched the vote total of Salazar and her opponent. And since she was uncontested I didn’t see any vote totals for Castor in FL-14, but the Republicans added up to 56k, which seems high (although I still think she has an outside shot).
Dem turnout in FL-25 was probably pumped up by Larkin's candidacy. Not clear if those voters will vote for Moskowitz in the fall. I'd continue to call it a tossup.
Don’t extrapolate primary turnout to the general election. These are closed primaries with turnout in SEFL in teens. The general electorate bears little resemblance of the combo of yesterday’s D+R turnout.
Also we shouldn’t speculate whether registered Dems voted in a low turnout affair would refuse to support the D incumbent. Some may not, and their number may not matter either.
As I said, it’s not perfect, but it’s not nothing either. Larkin kinda tanked so not sure how much sway he’ll have in November. And with the statewide primary electorate leaning even more GOP than 4 years ago, it is indeed notable when Dem totals match or surpass Republican totals in a district. Not determinative, but a promising signal.
Nah. It is not that the primary turnout lean GOP more. It is because now there are <4.1m registered Dems but over 5.6m registered Rs.
Yesterday’s turnout statewide actually Dem’s is about 1/2 pt higher than Rs, probably a bit more so in SEFL. Rarely happens.
No one is sure this will hold in Nov, which usually GOP turnout is several pt higher even in Blue wave years, because their vote base being much Whiter and older.
Nah, you're making my point for me. In an environment where there are more registered Republicans, Dems are still out-voting the GOP in key areas. I can guarantee you that the DCCC is thrilled with the primary composition in these districts even if -- as I said originally -- it's not a perfect indicator but a promising signal. It shows where the enthusiasm is, similar to the special election results all year (are we discounting those too?)
I see your point on enthusiasm. Rarely D turnout rates exceed Rs in Florida, no matter blue year or blue areas, as long as both sides have reasonably competitive top races. (2022 primary D had higher turnout, as R side had no competitions). So that is good.
But it is very hard to infer anything from the primary turnout in teens, to a midterm general election turnout. Tbh
We saw something similar in a lot of the gerrymandered districts in Texas. If nothing else I take it as a good sign that the gerrymanders aren't going to be completely insurmountable for Dems to win
Context of what makes up State House PA-12: The anchor of the district is Cranberry Township, a town at the junction of I-76 (PA Turnpike) & I-79, came to prominence in the mid-90s when businesses started leaving Pittsburgh (25 miles SSE) & Allegheny County to avoid city & county taxes. Upper middle class soon followed in the late 90s/early 00s but is still slowly growing & becoming richer with high end apartments, condos & planned communities (and the Pittsburgh Penguins practice facility) being built throughout the 2010s. This district will be a tough hold in November but not impossible.
Our chances of holding the seat will definitely be helped by Shapiro almost certainly winning in a massive landslide. Maybe in a blue wave, against an opponent who isn't as uniquely terrible as Mastriano, he might have some strong coattails ala Virginia and New Jersey in 2025
Shapiro is going to win comfortably but not the landslide he got in 22. Like you said, Garrity is not Mastriano. It all depends on if MAGA voters in the "Alabama T" show up or not.
Glad to see Markey is ahead in the polls in Massachusetts. I donated to Vindman but can only guess he ran a terrible campaign. Although Nixon has a tough road ahead but I wouldn't give up on her yet- she must be a great campaigner. I read where Vindman and his wife made attacks against Nixon- terrible strategy, Dems in primaries don't like attacks on fellow Democrats. His support of Israel must have really hurt in Miami, it surely never helped with Jewish voters, even when he was Jewish. Glad to see Dems in Penn's land win the special election. Also glad to see Miami voters combine the municipal elections with the even year elections- it will save millions of tax dollars and boost voter turnout, and result in more women and MORE MINORITIES being elected to local offices. Hopefully all blue states and blue local governments will follow suit.
I don't think it's anything we'll know until/if we get exit polls. You can't really gauge how well Vindman did with Jewish voters based on the results alone because while Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach counties certainly have a large concentration of Jewish Americans they're still pretty outnumbered by other minority groups
It might also happen that moving the local elections to the same year as regular elections means that it is harder for the local people to get their message out amid the national and state noise.
Vindman's wife Rachel attacked Nixon on social media over her appearance and clothing, and it was widely seen as classist and racist. Nixon clapped back and won some free publicity over it. For that reason alone, I'm kind of glad she won, and I wouldn't be surprised if it helped her. In this era where the right wing is trying to reframe our culture and values through their lens, I don't think we should tolerate that behavior in the slightest from Democrats.
But this is Vindman’s wife saying this. Do we have any reason to believe Vindman himself had these views?
Either way, it’s not a good look for a Democratic Senate candidate running in a primary. Even if these are the words from Vindman’s wife, he’s still responsible for this.
I don't think it matters what he really thinks, because as his spouse, she is as connected to him as one can be, and by engaging in the conversation on social media, she is participating in the campaign. You can distance yourself from siblings, parents, children, etc., because those cannot be helped. But that is not true of spouses, friends, or other willful associations.
FL-7: Interesting piece of trivia - this is not the first time Ryan Elijah, who convincingly defeated Rep. Cory Mills in last night's Republican primary, has run for Congress.
When Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) resigned from Indiana's 3rd in 2010, Elijah ran and placed 4th behind Fort Wayne councilor Liz Brown (now a state senator), state Rep. Randy Borror, and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who has continued to hold the seat in different time periods to this day. Elijah got 11%.
Elijah also claims he has lived in Florida for 20 years. 2010, believe it or not, was not 20 years ago.
Brendan, that would be flatly illegal. Per the US Constitution one does not have to live in the district but one must reside in the same state as the CD one is running in.
If he had been *elected*, yes he would need to move to the state. But there's nothing requiring a *candidate* to live in the state they're running in for Congress. This has been upheld in court.
Why would Begich drop out? He’s only 1.7 points out of first place, that’s a small enough gap that he’s still competitive for the win in November. Someone in that strong of a position dropping out to slightly increase our overall odds doesn’t strike me as something any candidate would do.
For the good of the party to have only one Dem in the race. I long said whichever Dem came in first should have the field to themselves so that votes aren’t exhausted in RCV. Dahlstrom did that after just narrowly getting beaten out by Nick Begich in 2024.
I don’t think Democratic candidates should drop out just to make it easier for us to game the system. I like ranked choice voting based on its own merits - because it allows for multiple talented candidates to compete without forcing everyone to drop out to just consolidate around one candidate that’s polling the best. If the only reason for Alaska to have ranked choice voting is so that more people waste their votes, that’s antidemocratic and defeats the entire point of the system.
Well like it or not, RCV has been gamed by both the GOP and even our party since its 2022 implementation. Votes will inevitably be exhausted if there’s no singular candidate from the party. It’s folly to assume voters will rank their second-choice Dem when this basically acting as an extension of the jungle primary. Some might be bitter, and some might just not know to rank. Either way, we have to look at the reality of what Alaska’s RCV system incentivizes. It incentivizes consolidation. We are not the favorites here if the field consists of two Dems and two Republicans.
I don’t really care - I’d rather have a slightly worse chance of winning the Alaska governor’s race than subvert the will of the voters there. If the only purpose of ranked choice voting is to allow for cheating, Alaska shouldn’t have it, and as someone who really would prefer to have ranked choice voting nationwide, I don’t think that discrediting it by turning it into something that’s just a partisan trick is a good way to show that it works.
Alaska’s RCV system is highly flawed in allowing the top 4 to drop out in the first place. It incentivizes gaming and consolidation. RCV works better when there’s just one nominee of each of the major parties running against indies and third parties. That prevents a Paul LePage situation.
Do you think Republicans would trade a slightly worse chance of holding any office anywhere in the country, let alone a Governorship, because it's a little unethical to "game" a voting system that is already somewhat flawed?
Dahlstrom finished behind Begich 26.6 to 19.9, this is much closer and may get even closer. Neither candidate can accurately assess who'd do better in November, and they seem ideologically similar. Begich is also doing better in heavily Native American areas, which I'm guesses has comparatively lower turnout in the primary vs general election compared to the southeast coast, where JKT is doing better.
I've said this last night, but I was REALLY heartened by the special House race results in Pennsylvania. It definitely gives me hope for breaking the gerrymandered GOP supermajority in the NC legislature this fall.
"-Angie Nixon saved us from wasting tens of millions more on a lost cause"
Let's just hope National Dems don't get too attached to David Jolly. Unless we start seeing independent, high quality polls showing that the race is competitive, any dollar sent to his campaign instead of downballot Dems is a wasted dollar
I don’t know if that works in overcoming a field where Republicans will likely have a higher percentage of the combined vote. If it was one Dem versus three Republicans, the odds are much better.
It’s wild how far Bill Walker has fallen - he was governor of Alaska less than a decade ago and now can’t even get 5% of the vote for governor anymore.
Sarah Palin was also quite the meteoric rise and fall, electorally at least. Ousting an incumbent governor then placing third in a congressional primary 16 years later.
To be fair to Palin she came in second in the congressional primary. And inadvertently set off a chain of events that led to an Alaska senate seat being a pickup opportunity. I can see the senate majority from my house!
Walker is 75 now instead of 63, he was a one term governor who dropped out of his re-election contest due to unpopularity. He was only ever elected in the first place (pre-Trump) as a coalition candidate with Dem backing to beat the unpopular GOP incumbent. The Dems don't need him and never wanted him. The GOP rejected him in 2010, before he enabled Dems in 2014, he's dead to them now. Plus this is the 5th cycle in a row he's been a candidate for Governor, he's got loser stink to the folks who gave him a chance again last cycle.
*blows raspberry*
Bunch of losers.
What are you talking about?
Wait a minute. He’s complaining if they’re Democrats and he’s complaining if they run separately. The man who helped give us Speaker Gingrich seems awfully confused.
I just learned Paul Begala is still alive! Who knew?
/the "attention economy" really has ruined society
Unlike Nigel Farage, Begala once actually lost an election to a cartoon character (then was given the win on the technical grounds that a cartoon character was ineligible)...
Speaking of ostensibly Democratic organizations which have been a cancer to our party, I was pleased to see that Begala is no longer a board member of DMFI.
Maybe we need to run more cartoon characters. Hank Hill was always somewhat conservative, but friendly with Ann Richards and distinctly non-Trumpy. He could at least be a Bulwark-type. Run him for the other TX Senate seat.
How is this productive
I mean...I'm no fan of the DSA, but this is a pretty extreme statement. Uncommitted didn't flip anything to Trump and Stein didn't cost Clinton the election in 2016. Nader probably did help Bush win, but it's not really clear to me that his support and today's DSA have all that big an overlap.
There are probably more people who comment on this Substack than were active in DSA in 2000.
Also, didn't Begala support the Iraq War and the Afghanistan War? Holy retconning, Batman.
You could definitely argue the uncommitted movement help stir anti-establishment sentiment which ended up hurting Harris
Attacks on Green candidacies are valid and welcome. Blaming the DSA, who choose to run as Democrats, for Nader and Stein is not. We're here to discuss and analyze elections, not post irrelevant attacks on wings of the party we dislike.
It won’t get the top billing, but the Freedom Caucus losing the vast majority of the GOP primaries in the WY State Legislature is a great result. Showing the farthest right crazies that nobody likes them even in one of the most conservative states is a way to stop and turn back the rightward slide of the public over the past decade
Yes, it's important if the Republican Party is ever to be revived as even a slightly legitimate organization. I'd prefer for it to be disbanded as a subversive organization that injured national security, like the Nazi Party was officially disbanded in Germany after the war, but that won't happen.
That their opposition was bankrolled by Americans for Prosperity puts this in the proper context of two far-right extremist groups jockeying for control of the levers of power. Hate to be in a position where the Koch astroturf is the lesser of two evils, but that's where we are.
Even as someone who is more Moderate, I'm glad that Nixon won. I love the triumph of good old-fashioned shoe leather over millions raised and a national profile and I don't think it particularly hurts our odds of an upset, which were always long. Hopefully this is a lesson to the party establishment that if they want to get their candidates over the finish line they need to connect with actual voters.
Also, this injects some life into what would have been an incredibly bland and virtually Republican-lite top of the ticket. Nixon will create some enthusiasm among younger and black voters that would otherwise not have been there.
Yep and that will help out the candidates who actually have a chance to win.
Hopefully the FL Democratic Party can get invigorated energy so it can do more to turn out the base and even get better quality candidates running statewide.
A lesson they are slow in learning.
Too many Dems bash their base voters and run to big donors when it should be the other way around.
How do you define "base voters"? As I understand it, the median Dem voter is a moderate, African American female - not exactly a DSA constituency.
Do you think that voter cast her vote for Nixon or for Vindman?
I think this helps turns out POC, especially Black folks, and progressives who would otherwise sit out the election due to the top of the ticket being a former Republican and a carpetbagger moderate. It can help Jolly if his election is close.
Why would progressives sit out an important election like this?
I don't think anyone who's highly political would sit it out. But there's plenty of more marginal, low propensity voters who need someone who actually excites them to encourage them to get to the polls.
(In these days of negative partisanship, that person can be your opponent, but it's better if you're also happy to vote for your guy or gal.)
There was never a chance of an upset but Nixon as nominee seems to me more likely to facilitate a collapse where every embattled Democrat is virtually assured of defeat. Pretty safe bet Jared Moskowitz was hoping for a Vindman win, and is lamenting the Nixon win.
Nixon notably endorsed his opponent, which does not bode well for her general election sensibilities. I'm not going to completely count out the 3 redistricted reps + FL-22, but gaining seats feels off the table, and she's clearly going to be a net negative most places.
Not quite sure why having one centrist and one liberal leading the two big statewide races could lead to a downballot collapse whereas two centrists would have a better chance of keeping the House results respectable. The worst midterm collapses I've observed have been years without a senate race where one side essentially forfeited the gov race. 2014 NV-Gov the prime example here, where the Dem candidate technically lost to "none of the above" and doesn't even have a wikipedia page. Centrist or liberal mattered not, that cake was baked because Dems just didn't even think there was a reason to show up.
The line of reasoning is that Nixon, who is a member of the DSA, could be used as "proof" that all Democrats secretly love Castro and hate Jews or whatever (and I'm not saying Nixon believes those things, but rather a few people in the DSA do), hurting more moderate Democrats. Republicans certainty have accused the Democrats of being socialist/communist to win Cuban and other Hispanic voters in 2020 and 2024, and giving them any form of ammunition may be dangerous.
I mean, that's pretty speculative. One could just as easily say that having a more leftist candidate on the ballot allows the other candidates to differentiate themselves by saying "see I'm a Moderate, I disagree with our Senate nominee on these three issues." Hakeem Jeffries gave an interview recently where he did just that: denounced a couple planks of the DSA platform to show that mainline Dems were more Moderate.
I don't think that type of differentiation would really work on most voters who'd be put off by Nixon. I don't see any reason to believe Jefferies' rhetoric is going to accomplish much.
I generally agree that it's potentially positive as a wakeup call and likely won't impact the result. That said, we have probably taken the chance of a FL-Sen upset from 10-15% to 1% with this choice.
Also this prevents millions from being vaporized on a contest which Democrats weren't going to win anyway. With Republicans having a disproportionate advantage in fundraising coupled with the continued dysfunction at Ken Martin's DNC we can't afford to waste millions on feel good candidacies like we did in Florida in 2022 with Val Demings and with Amy McGrath/Jamie Harrison in 2020.
I know some folks were hoping Cory Mills would win the primary to make FL-7 a potential flip for us, but honestly I’m glad that a despicable person like that is going to be out of Congress entirely. While going against worse candidates is an advantage (see Ken Paxton), in my opinion having straight up evil deplorable people in elected positions of power spewing and normalizing hate speech is one of the biggest reasons we are in the position we are today in this country.
Most the folks on this site probably agree that GOP politicians mostly all have bad positions and hold some disgusting views, but the MAGA types that project xenophobia and transphobia all over social media and normalize that to millions of people are the worst culprits and need to be taken out of the public eye whenever possible in my view. Even if he is a better candidate for us to flip the district it’s not worth the risk of having Cory Mills in Congress for two more years
I'd say the same thing about Andy Ogles, because with the new district there was no way Molder was going to win.
I am genuinely surprised that Angie Nixon won the FL-Sen Democratic primary, and I'm even more surprised that Nixon carried Miami-Dade County, which is definitely not the first place anyone thinks of being receptive to voting for a democratic socialist. I like to say that a socialist couldn't win a socialist primary in Miami-Dade, yet a democratic socialist won Miami-Dade in a Democratic primary!
I genuinely don't think Nixon will come close to winning the Florida U.S. Senate race unless the bottom completely falls out for the GOP very late in the campaign, and I would have said the same thing if Vindman won the primary.
But credit Ms. Nixon, a union organizer, for knowing how to harness the enthusiasm of grass-roots Democrats and volunteers — and deftly using social media — to inform them about her candidacy.
A final weekend push in South Florida, home to many Democratic voters even as much of the region has trended toward Republicans, appears to have paid off: Ms. Nixon, who is from Jacksonville, defeated Mr. Vindman in Miami-Dade County, the state’s most populous, and in neighboring Broward County, where he lives.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/19/us/politics/florida-primaries-takeaways.html?emc=edit_ufn_20260819&nl=from-the-times&segment_id=225005
If nothing else Nixon and AES relative to Cooper and Peltola are good test cases for everyone's theories of politics.
In contrast to the MI/WI primaries, where Black voters were more likely to vote for the moderate candidate, here Black voters chose the more progressive candidate, which helps explain the result.
Cory Mills looks like Temu Joel McHale.
I'm thinking more Temu Matt Damon
Mills' douchiness mirrors the smug bros Joel McHale tends to play.
McHale himself is a great guy.
Completely unrelated to politics, but House of Villains, a semi parody of reality shows, hosted by Joel McHale, is my favorite show I discovered this year.
Only seen him in Community, an all-time great show.
That's an insult to Matt Damon.
I'm thinking more Temu Shea Whigham in Death by Lightning.
That's slander against Joel McHale and, to a lesser extent, Temu
Peltola at 48% and +5% caught my eye, along with the win in the PA special +18 Trump district.
Has there been a correlation between primary/general spread/result in her previous races? Winning by +5 and then losing?
It's hard to say if there's a trend because this system was only used in 2022 and 2024, and in 2022 she only took 37% in the primary because nobody knew her yet, so that's not a useful data point. But in 2024 her vote share actually went down from the primary. She took 51% in the primary, but in the general election she took 46% in the first round and 49% in the final post-RCV round
I wonder if in 2024, the reason her vote share went down had something to do with Trump doing what he does best and bringing out low propensity voters?
That, or polarization caused by there being a general election.
Different state, but I recall that in 1998, in WA-1, republican representative Rick White won the all party primary, but went on to lose the general to Jay Inslee.
It's pretty well established that Dems generally gain over their top-2 primary results in WA and CA. It's not as clear in ranked choice states like AK and ME.
This year, it seems like Democrats tended to slightly overperform in the top-2 , with some particularly wild cases around Vancouver
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/18/us/politics/dan-sullivan-alaska-senate-primary.html
AK-Sen: Though maintaining he is not a Democratic plant, Dan J. Sullivan (not the incumbent, the fisherman from Petersburg) admits he voted for Democratic presidential nominees as well as Mary Peltola, who he's now running against in November. He also voted for the senator's independent opponent in 2020 as well as his Republican colleague Lisa Murkowski in 2022.
For the Miami Ballot item: not clear how the election in 2033 is for a 3-year term if the elections move to even-numbered years in 2034. Isn't that 1 year?
I assume they mean that the change takes effect in 2034, but the next election won't be until 2036.
Based on primary turnout between the parties (not a perfect barometer, I know) I’d say Moskowitz is the clear favorite in FL-25. It’s been a little under the radar, but hope the DCCC isn’t sleeping on Rodriguez in FL-27; Dems there nearly matched the vote total of Salazar and her opponent. And since she was uncontested I didn’t see any vote totals for Castor in FL-14, but the Republicans added up to 56k, which seems high (although I still think she has an outside shot).
Dem turnout in FL-25 was probably pumped up by Larkin's candidacy. Not clear if those voters will vote for Moskowitz in the fall. I'd continue to call it a tossup.
You think there's large tranches of voters who turned out to vote in a primary who won't vote in the general?
I don't know how large, but they may vote for senator and governor.
I think the category of people who vote only for democratic socialists but not Democrats is vanishingly small, especially in a seat like that one.
Don’t extrapolate primary turnout to the general election. These are closed primaries with turnout in SEFL in teens. The general electorate bears little resemblance of the combo of yesterday’s D+R turnout.
Also we shouldn’t speculate whether registered Dems voted in a low turnout affair would refuse to support the D incumbent. Some may not, and their number may not matter either.
As I said, it’s not perfect, but it’s not nothing either. Larkin kinda tanked so not sure how much sway he’ll have in November. And with the statewide primary electorate leaning even more GOP than 4 years ago, it is indeed notable when Dem totals match or surpass Republican totals in a district. Not determinative, but a promising signal.
Nah. It is not that the primary turnout lean GOP more. It is because now there are <4.1m registered Dems but over 5.6m registered Rs.
Yesterday’s turnout statewide actually Dem’s is about 1/2 pt higher than Rs, probably a bit more so in SEFL. Rarely happens.
No one is sure this will hold in Nov, which usually GOP turnout is several pt higher even in Blue wave years, because their vote base being much Whiter and older.
Nah, you're making my point for me. In an environment where there are more registered Republicans, Dems are still out-voting the GOP in key areas. I can guarantee you that the DCCC is thrilled with the primary composition in these districts even if -- as I said originally -- it's not a perfect indicator but a promising signal. It shows where the enthusiasm is, similar to the special election results all year (are we discounting those too?)
I see your point on enthusiasm. Rarely D turnout rates exceed Rs in Florida, no matter blue year or blue areas, as long as both sides have reasonably competitive top races. (2022 primary D had higher turnout, as R side had no competitions). So that is good.
But it is very hard to infer anything from the primary turnout in teens, to a midterm general election turnout. Tbh
We saw something similar in a lot of the gerrymandered districts in Texas. If nothing else I take it as a good sign that the gerrymanders aren't going to be completely insurmountable for Dems to win
Context of what makes up State House PA-12: The anchor of the district is Cranberry Township, a town at the junction of I-76 (PA Turnpike) & I-79, came to prominence in the mid-90s when businesses started leaving Pittsburgh (25 miles SSE) & Allegheny County to avoid city & county taxes. Upper middle class soon followed in the late 90s/early 00s but is still slowly growing & becoming richer with high end apartments, condos & planned communities (and the Pittsburgh Penguins practice facility) being built throughout the 2010s. This district will be a tough hold in November but not impossible.
Our chances of holding the seat will definitely be helped by Shapiro almost certainly winning in a massive landslide. Maybe in a blue wave, against an opponent who isn't as uniquely terrible as Mastriano, he might have some strong coattails ala Virginia and New Jersey in 2025
Shapiro is going to win comfortably but not the landslide he got in 22. Like you said, Garrity is not Mastriano. It all depends on if MAGA voters in the "Alabama T" show up or not.
Glad to see Markey is ahead in the polls in Massachusetts. I donated to Vindman but can only guess he ran a terrible campaign. Although Nixon has a tough road ahead but I wouldn't give up on her yet- she must be a great campaigner. I read where Vindman and his wife made attacks against Nixon- terrible strategy, Dems in primaries don't like attacks on fellow Democrats. His support of Israel must have really hurt in Miami, it surely never helped with Jewish voters, even when he was Jewish. Glad to see Dems in Penn's land win the special election. Also glad to see Miami voters combine the municipal elections with the even year elections- it will save millions of tax dollars and boost voter turnout, and result in more women and MORE MINORITIES being elected to local offices. Hopefully all blue states and blue local governments will follow suit.
"His support of Israel must have really hurt in Miami, it surely never helped with Jewish voters" How do you know it didn't help with Jewish voters?
I don't think it's anything we'll know until/if we get exit polls. You can't really gauge how well Vindman did with Jewish voters based on the results alone because while Miami-Dade/Broward/Palm Beach counties certainly have a large concentration of Jewish Americans they're still pretty outnumbered by other minority groups
It might also happen that moving the local elections to the same year as regular elections means that it is harder for the local people to get their message out amid the national and state noise.
Vindman's wife Rachel attacked Nixon on social media over her appearance and clothing, and it was widely seen as classist and racist. Nixon clapped back and won some free publicity over it. For that reason alone, I'm kind of glad she won, and I wouldn't be surprised if it helped her. In this era where the right wing is trying to reframe our culture and values through their lens, I don't think we should tolerate that behavior in the slightest from Democrats.
But this is Vindman’s wife saying this. Do we have any reason to believe Vindman himself had these views?
Either way, it’s not a good look for a Democratic Senate candidate running in a primary. Even if these are the words from Vindman’s wife, he’s still responsible for this.
I don't think it matters what he really thinks, because as his spouse, she is as connected to him as one can be, and by engaging in the conversation on social media, she is participating in the campaign. You can distance yourself from siblings, parents, children, etc., because those cannot be helped. But that is not true of spouses, friends, or other willful associations.
True. I was just wondering if Vindman said anything in particular had any negative views of Nixon but regardless, it really doesn't matter anyway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Indiana's_3rd_congressional_district_special_election
FL-7: Interesting piece of trivia - this is not the first time Ryan Elijah, who convincingly defeated Rep. Cory Mills in last night's Republican primary, has run for Congress.
When Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) resigned from Indiana's 3rd in 2010, Elijah ran and placed 4th behind Fort Wayne councilor Liz Brown (now a state senator), state Rep. Randy Borror, and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who has continued to hold the seat in different time periods to this day. Elijah got 11%.
Elijah also claims he has lived in Florida for 20 years. 2010, believe it or not, was not 20 years ago.
It's possible he ran in Indiana while living in Florida, though dubious.
Both states have a Miami county (kind of); maybe he got confused
He's a republican so it's possible he's a liar?
I'm shocked (shocked!) at that allegation.
Brendan, that would be flatly illegal. Per the US Constitution one does not have to live in the district but one must reside in the same state as the CD one is running in.
If he had been *elected*, yes he would need to move to the state. But there's nothing requiring a *candidate* to live in the state they're running in for Congress. This has been upheld in court.
Maybe he didn't live in Florida for 20 consecutive years?
Of course, considering he's a Republican politician, the most probable explanation is that he's lying.
Nothing to really complain about from the results. Some observations:
-Tom Begich needs to drop out so we can have just the top Dem, JTK, as the sole Dem against 3 Republicans who will probably exhaust a lot of votes.
-Peltola is doing amazing. It’s great that Dan J. Sullivan landed third.
-PA is going to be an absolute bloodbath, as will probably many places in the country
-Angie Nixon saved us from wasting tens of millions more on a lost cause
Why would Begich drop out? He’s only 1.7 points out of first place, that’s a small enough gap that he’s still competitive for the win in November. Someone in that strong of a position dropping out to slightly increase our overall odds doesn’t strike me as something any candidate would do.
For the good of the party to have only one Dem in the race. I long said whichever Dem came in first should have the field to themselves so that votes aren’t exhausted in RCV. Dahlstrom did that after just narrowly getting beaten out by Nick Begich in 2024.
I don’t think Democratic candidates should drop out just to make it easier for us to game the system. I like ranked choice voting based on its own merits - because it allows for multiple talented candidates to compete without forcing everyone to drop out to just consolidate around one candidate that’s polling the best. If the only reason for Alaska to have ranked choice voting is so that more people waste their votes, that’s antidemocratic and defeats the entire point of the system.
Well like it or not, RCV has been gamed by both the GOP and even our party since its 2022 implementation. Votes will inevitably be exhausted if there’s no singular candidate from the party. It’s folly to assume voters will rank their second-choice Dem when this basically acting as an extension of the jungle primary. Some might be bitter, and some might just not know to rank. Either way, we have to look at the reality of what Alaska’s RCV system incentivizes. It incentivizes consolidation. We are not the favorites here if the field consists of two Dems and two Republicans.
I don’t really care - I’d rather have a slightly worse chance of winning the Alaska governor’s race than subvert the will of the voters there. If the only purpose of ranked choice voting is to allow for cheating, Alaska shouldn’t have it, and as someone who really would prefer to have ranked choice voting nationwide, I don’t think that discrediting it by turning it into something that’s just a partisan trick is a good way to show that it works.
Alaska’s RCV system is highly flawed in allowing the top 4 to drop out in the first place. It incentivizes gaming and consolidation. RCV works better when there’s just one nominee of each of the major parties running against indies and third parties. That prevents a Paul LePage situation.
Do you think Republicans would trade a slightly worse chance of holding any office anywhere in the country, let alone a Governorship, because it's a little unethical to "game" a voting system that is already somewhat flawed?
Dahlstrom finished behind Begich 26.6 to 19.9, this is much closer and may get even closer. Neither candidate can accurately assess who'd do better in November, and they seem ideologically similar. Begich is also doing better in heavily Native American areas, which I'm guesses has comparatively lower turnout in the primary vs general election compared to the southeast coast, where JKT is doing better.
I've said this last night, but I was REALLY heartened by the special House race results in Pennsylvania. It definitely gives me hope for breaking the gerrymandered GOP supermajority in the NC legislature this fall.
"-Angie Nixon saved us from wasting tens of millions more on a lost cause"
Let's just hope National Dems don't get too attached to David Jolly. Unless we start seeing independent, high quality polls showing that the race is competitive, any dollar sent to his campaign instead of downballot Dems is a wasted dollar
What JTK and Begich need to do is to urge their supporters to pick the other as second choice. This is what Dems have done successfully elsewhere.
I don’t know if that works in overcoming a field where Republicans will likely have a higher percentage of the combined vote. If it was one Dem versus three Republicans, the odds are much better.
It's possible a lot of Walker and Bishop voters end up voting Democratic, if ranked choice voting polls are anything to go by.
It’s wild how far Bill Walker has fallen - he was governor of Alaska less than a decade ago and now can’t even get 5% of the vote for governor anymore.
Sarah Palin was also quite the meteoric rise and fall, electorally at least. Ousting an incumbent governor then placing third in a congressional primary 16 years later.
To be fair to Palin she came in second in the congressional primary. And inadvertently set off a chain of events that led to an Alaska senate seat being a pickup opportunity. I can see the senate majority from my house!
Walker is 75 now instead of 63, he was a one term governor who dropped out of his re-election contest due to unpopularity. He was only ever elected in the first place (pre-Trump) as a coalition candidate with Dem backing to beat the unpopular GOP incumbent. The Dems don't need him and never wanted him. The GOP rejected him in 2010, before he enabled Dems in 2014, he's dead to them now. Plus this is the 5th cycle in a row he's been a candidate for Governor, he's got loser stink to the folks who gave him a chance again last cycle.