Still relatively late given the fact that we’ve known since February at least that this was going to be a midterm environment similar to 2006 or 2018 and there’s no way Alaska and Ohio wouldn’t be tossups if that were the case.
You know how Sabato and Cook are. They have reputations and are way too cautious regarding midterm elections. Granted they don't want to have egg on their face by jumping the gun, but the writing on the wall for these Senate races was getting clear by February-April.
I almost want to see them embarrassed by underestimating the blue tsunami that's brewing.
I just don’t get why they’re concerned about jumping the gun. 4 of the past 5 midterm elections have been waves in favor of the out party, that should be the starting point for all predictions of any midterm election.
Maybe some of them are spooked by the one that wasn't: 2022, when virtually all pundits predicted a red wave (though they differed on its size) and were wrong.
Cook is worse than Sabato, esp. since Amy Walter took over. Every development is bad for Dems no matter what happens. Wasserman definitely defaults slightly more to the GOP than he should, but mostly a straight shooter.
I'm surprised that more prognosticators aren't bullish on Iowa flipping, given the special elections we've seen there and the nomination of Turek.
The only argument I can think of for keeping it Lean R is that Ashley Hinson has a lot of cash on hand. But hopefully, now that he's the nominee, Turek can catch up over before the end of Q2.
It's just that there's nothing disqualifying about Hinson personally, and the state has gone so red that the political environment is going to do all the heavy lifting there. Said this last week, but if it were Turek vs. Ernst, it would be a Lean Dem race IMO.
I think her voting record in Congress offers many ways in which she can be viewed as disqualifying. But I concede it will take voter education to make that stick.
In that same article I linked, Sabato changed both the TX and IA Senate races from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after the TX runoff and IA primary last week.
I think more people are coming onboard with the Iowa race. I still see outright victory for Turek as a 10% scenario. Hinson's regional familiarity in Iowa's most bellwether quadrant makes her uniquely strong for statewide victory, at least in theory. With that said, she's about as empty of a vessel as has ever graced the stage in terms of substance, so I struggle to see what her argument for a promotion will be.
Interesting. The buzz on Peltola seems to have faded a lot in the last month. I was surprised that Chuck Todd didn't even include it in his top-5 list of seats most likely to change parties.
I got the same thing, which really doesn't feel right for me. Loyal Liberal or Left-Out Left seem more fitting.
Unfortunately, "Just Win, Baby, Sickos", who prioritise the need for Democrats to win elections above all in order to govern and who closely follow election and campaign developments, wasn't an option.
I normally get the leftmost category in these sorts of things but like you got loyal liberal. Some of the questions definitely did not fully capture my views.
Me too, although I'd probably consider myself more of a Loyal Liberal. That said, as others point out, some of the questions were oddly phrased or ignored key context.
I was surprised to see that I am considered leftward progressive as a question about capitalism being important as of ‘major importance.”
There are those more to the left of me who don’t like capitalism although they’d probably be okay with it when they realize they can make a hell of a lot more money in a capitalist system as opposed to working for the government.
That capitalism question seems to not favor in that much to the loyalty test.
My answer was mainly because most western countries like the U.S. need a market-based economy in order to effectively function and provide the necessary income tax revenue (as well as other sources of tax revenue). It’s not based on me believing those who favor a capitalist system should condone corporate power over the little guy, private equity vulture capitalism and VCs controlling startups.
I took it twice a day apart, didn't consciously change any answers and got two different results so I assume I must have altered at least one answer slightly and am on the cusp between two results. Leftward Progressive and Left Out Left.
I ranked as a Leftward Progressive, which I probably would be considered if I lived in the United States. Among some of my neighbours here, I think I come across as an establishment shill for the LPC, which I will absolutely agree with. I may catch some flak, but I think big tent parties do need to be able to read the electorate and stay ahead of it, which I think Carney did well last year by moderating to win back defectors from the CPC, but the old guard Democrats have not by matching the energy of the new wave of activists and candidates.
That’s a fair argument. I don’t think any politician should be insulated from what’s going on in the world and should be in tune with where society is.
I got Loyal Liberals, even though I'm often critical of more moderate elements of the Democratic Party. Here's my answers and how they aligned with the total pool of Loyal Liberals:
A fair number of the questions were about church-state separation/affairs-related issues, an issue where I am very much on the side of church-state separation. I find it interesting that Pew included some questions about that issue, since it's an issue that I'm very passionate about as an atheist, but it's something that virtually the entire Democratic Party doesn't use as a campaign issue or even an issue of focus in legislative or other government matters.
Probably easier to get away with it in certain states more than others, like Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Florida with huge transplant populations. Veterans also have the excuse of not always being able to choose where they were stationed.
Amodei himself today: "[T]he Republican candidate advancing to the general election faces a well-positioned Democrat opponent.
It will be an interesting summer and fall, but I believe it’s fair to say that CD-2, for the first time in its history, isn’t a Republican guarantee. What was once a safe prediction may quickly become an expensive one." https://x.com/AmodeiForNevada/status/2065086815371940081
The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has endorsed former Rep. Tom Perriello for this seat. While he is unlikely to win, I’ll say that in this environment, I’m never saying never.
NY-10: Former New York City comptroller Brad Lander, a Democrat running in this congressional primary, was found not guilty of obstruction after being arrested last year at a federal immigration courthouse for protesting ICE crackdowns.
Vance Boelter plead guilty to murdering Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, as well as attempting to murder state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette.
Boelter also went to the homes of state Rep. Kristin Bahner and state Sen. Ann Rest, presumably attempting to hurt them as well.
Hortman's death had a prominent impact on Gov. Tim Walz's decision to retire from elected office, as well as reinforcing an already known notion that political violence in America is growing.
Are we going to have to learn the hard way that “defunding the police” is a killer in a swing state? Sara Rodriguez internal has Barnes narrowly ahead of Hong in Wisconsin. Rodriguez a distant third.
I’d rather Rodriguez, but I’m not sure she can win. Barnes had his own association with the defund the police movement that likely cost him in 2022. Idk why Rodriguez would even release that internal.
I just wish Josh Kaul had run so we wouldn’t have had to deal with this headache.
She probably released it to show that she's the only middle-of-the-party Dem whose support is growing and that they need to consolidate in order to avoid Hong or Barnes being the nominee. I could see a situation where various IE groups see this, decide to spend a couple of million to boost her name ID, and she ends up winning a bunch of the undecideds for a narrow plurality win. The poll definitely shows that none of the candidates besides her, Hong, and Barnes have a shot at winning.
Maybe they figure that it's more survivable now than in 2022, based on the view that the "defund the police" talk is old now (assuming they haven't said it recently) and that this is shaping up to be a much bluer year than the one in which Barnes only barely lost.
But it still strikes me as a risk that they don't have to, and shouldn't, take. And before anyone cites Zohran Mamdani as a reason why it's nothing to worry about, WI isn't as blue as NYC and its Democratic candidates aren't necessarily as skilled as Zohran proved to be.
A possible concern is that, while such positions may not be as controversial now, they risk becoming controversial in a less blue year. A Barnes or Hong could potentially win in 2026 (although with Hong, I'm still a little nervous), but could they win in 2032? Could become a problem in a later year.
I don’t think Hong can win in 2026 even with how blue the year is. Her *recent* comments on police and prisons will be played on a loop 24/7. That shit doesn’t fly even in blue cities. I have no idea why people think it would in Wisconsin.
Oh no I agree, it's why I said I'm still a little nervous. My thought process was that a D+10 environment might be able to carry her, but that hasn't always been true -- the 2010 GOP wave didn't save that Delaware witch lady or Sharron Angle.
Not now, but he did call in the past for decreasing funding for the NYPD because he reasoned that the separate department to handle people with mental health issues that he proposed to create would decrease the need for police work
When he ran for mayor though last year, Mamdani was against defunding the police. Although the mainstream media might have argued this is a flip flop, I don’t think this is the case. Mamdani’s been trying to emphasize what police need to do that’s actually worth their time and meant for them in their job description. He’s been very focused on trying to put reason and common sense with how police do their work.
Yes, and I agree with him about that. As far as I know, he's getting along well with the police, but I've mostly been in Berlin for the last few months, so I don't really know. It's annoying that I can't listen to WINS radio in Germany because of some kind of restriction.
Evers & Tammy Baldwin needs to endorse someone and get people to drop out if they care about the party. No clue why they'd be content with letting a clearly flawed candidates blow the parties chances at winning its first trifecta in decades.
The WI-Gov primary is one where I wish ranked choice was used, as both the progressive (Hong, Barnes, Roys) and moderate (Rodriguez, Hughes, Crowley, Brennan) factions are split multiple ways.
TX Sen: James Talarico is launching his first general election TV ad with a Spanish language spot set to air during the FIFA World Cup. The ad will air on Telemundo during every tournament match in the U.S. and the Mexico groups. "In the 30-second ad, a narrator in Spanish emphasizes Talarico’s background as a teacher and public education advocate, his plans to defend Social Security and Medicare, and his push to raise taxes on billionaires.” The ad buy exceeds $800,000. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/11/texas-senate-james-talarico-spanish-ad-world-cup-latino-voters/
This is so smart and shows Talarico’s clear intention to fight for Latino votes. So many voters will be watching the world cup—there are even games in Houston. And to include all games in the groups that include the US and Mexican teams!
TX-Sen - Ken Paxton is openly siding with Brendan Sorsby, the Texas Tech football quarterback accused of betting on college football games his team played in (making Sorsby an extremely controversial figure in the sports world) and waging a legal battle to regain NCAA eligibility.
Texas Tech is a Big 12 Conference member (which actually has 16 full-member universities, four of which are in Texas). The Big 12 has threatened to sanction Texas Tech if Sorsby is allowed to play football in the upcoming season.
College football ranks just above God in TX. Dems should make this a huge issue! Sorsby/Texas Tech are doing everything they can to bring down the institution of college football as we know it today and have known it for decades. Paxton is a collaborator!
The Big Ten is reportedly expected to announce they're leaving it up to their individual member schools rather than imposing a conference-wide ban on playing against Texas Tech. Nebraska, a Big Ten member, has already stated they won't play Texas Tech in any sport.
Can't remember if I shared this article but City and State NY is speculating on who might challenge, or potentially replace (if he retires, which I think he will) Chuck Schumer. The names they mentioned:
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (obviously)
- Rep. Ritchie Torres
- Rep. Adriano Espaillat (if he survives his primary)
- Rep. Dan Goldman, or ex-NYC Comptroller Brad Lander if he defeats Goldman
- Whoever wins outgoing Rep. Jerry Nadler's seat (and potentially Assemb. Alex Bores, even if he doesn't)
- Rep. Pat Ryan
- Former FTC Commissioner Lina Khan
- State Sen. James Skoufis
- A former official who wants a comeback (the article floated ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (blech))
Interestingly, the article did not mention AG Letitia James, who I've seen be floated. Someone on here a while back mentioned some other ex-officials who might try a comeback -- said user specifically floated former Reps. Steve Israel and even Joe Crowley.
My thoughts on these: my stance on AOC running cannot be discussed without violating our ban on presidential primary talk, I despise Torres and hope he doesn't run, I don't think Espaillat will survive his primary (or he'll barely survive and retire in 2028, as one poster here suggested), I think Goldman will lose his primary and Lander will wait and challenge Gillibrand in 2030 (which is my desired outcome), whoever wins Nadler's seat will not have enough experience yet (and Bores doesn't strike me as someone who'd try), Pat Ryan would be a really good unifier pick, Lina Khan probably won't give it a go (although I do really like her), Skoufis should try for Pat Ryan's seat instead if Ryan runs for Senate, Tish James is great but might be too old, and I do not want any comebacks from former politicians in NY, especially not Cuomo or Crowley (although someone on here suggested running Steve Israel as a Suozzi primary challenger a while back, which could be interesting).
Anyway, with that out of the way, what does everyone else here think about this article and these picks? Who would you like to see run? Any names not mentioned here who could be interesting?
"There’s no way a politician with as much “it factor” as AOC has would spend her limited time barnstorming the country as she has done this last year and a half to support Democratic candidates if she didn’t have a race other than Senator on her mind." I'm not sure that's true, or at least not immediately. She's a committed leader of a movement, and that might be enough of a reason.
Agree with Ocasio-Cortez, Goldman and Ryan being likely candidates. I think Espaillat, James, and all of the comeback people are too old. Especially the former, who does have a primary this year and would be about the same age Schumer is now when first elected.
She'd also be 70 as a freshman. I feel like the voter base would prefer someone a bit younger, who can have a longer career in federal politics, like Ocasio-Cortez or Ryan.
Of members of Congress, Riley and Kennedy aren't known and Morelle and Tonko are too old. There's not really any prominent state legislators I can think of. You'd have to look at has-beens like Antonio Delgado, Bill Owens or even Dan Maffei, Anthony Brindisi or Scott Murphy.
Bill Owens is nearly two years older than Schumer.
Poor Dan Maffei managed to suffer the largest defeat of any incumbent in the 2014 cycle (19.2 points). That just seemed excessive for a non-controversial incumbent.
If she runs, she's going to break records for most fundraising in 24 hours. She consistently outraises everyone in the house.
Does anyone in NY want to go up against a very popular, well liked candidate with effectively 100% name recognition who will also be in a position to spend $100m on just the primary?
I doubt AOC will have a primary to herself, as she's progressive enough to draw some ire from moderates. Long Island, Hudson Valley, and much of upstate New York have enough moderates to give her a challenge.
Would be sad to see AOC leave the House, but ecstatic to see her replace Schumer in the Senate. Goldman/Torres are worse than Chuck. Lander needs to stay put for a few cycles after beating Goldman, 2030 might be OK. Don't know Ryan well enough to comment. Lina Khan will be in the next Dem cabinet (I hope).
I think he's run once (or more) every cycle except 2020 since his first race in 2006, winning in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Trial lawyers don't stop suing when they lose a case.
He's 68, so maybe he'll retire before much longer?
FL-9 may have some minority protections under the VRA since it's Hispanic-majority. Of course, Grayson is not Hispanic, but Darren Soto is. And now that the VRA is done they can get rid of him.
As a matter of fact, Grayson had a primary challenge by University of Central Florida Nick Ruiz back in 2014. He won though by 75% points so the challenge was not credible at all.
Hard to say with where things have been with the FL GOP and gerrymandering since 2014.
Well, a fair map was drawn in 2016, then a gerrymander in 2022, then another gerrymander now. So I guess it has become more egregious over time as the state has trended Republican.
Sabato has changed three Senate race predictions.
AK - Lean Republican to Toss Up
OH - Lean Republican to Toss Up
NC - Toss Up to Lean Democratic
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-senate-the-race-for-the-majority-is-not-a-toss-up-but-the-races-that-will-decide-it-are/
In the weeks and months ahead, there’ll be a helluva lot more changes!
Hopefully for the TX and IA races!
Long overdue for Alaska, Sullivan hasn't lead a single poll since Peltola announced
If Peltola wins and the MSM acts shocked, it's on them. Sullivan only won his races by 2-4 points apiece so he's not undefeatable.
My only worry ... and I don't want to jinx things... Alaska polling is difficult and has at least a few times underpredicted the R amount.
Jinxing things would be if you said Peltola had this in the bag, you're just being prudently cautious lol.
What took him so long
I think the shift is relatively early compared to Mr. "I've Seen Enough" and his employers at the Cook Report.
Still relatively late given the fact that we’ve known since February at least that this was going to be a midterm environment similar to 2006 or 2018 and there’s no way Alaska and Ohio wouldn’t be tossups if that were the case.
You know how Sabato and Cook are. They have reputations and are way too cautious regarding midterm elections. Granted they don't want to have egg on their face by jumping the gun, but the writing on the wall for these Senate races was getting clear by February-April.
I almost want to see them embarrassed by underestimating the blue tsunami that's brewing.
I just don’t get why they’re concerned about jumping the gun. 4 of the past 5 midterm elections have been waves in favor of the out party, that should be the starting point for all predictions of any midterm election.
Maybe some of them are spooked by the one that wasn't: 2022, when virtually all pundits predicted a red wave (though they differed on its size) and were wrong.
Cook is worse than Sabato, esp. since Amy Walter took over. Every development is bad for Dems no matter what happens. Wasserman definitely defaults slightly more to the GOP than he should, but mostly a straight shooter.
I'm surprised that more prognosticators aren't bullish on Iowa flipping, given the special elections we've seen there and the nomination of Turek.
The only argument I can think of for keeping it Lean R is that Ashley Hinson has a lot of cash on hand. But hopefully, now that he's the nominee, Turek can catch up over before the end of Q2.
It's just that there's nothing disqualifying about Hinson personally, and the state has gone so red that the political environment is going to do all the heavy lifting there. Said this last week, but if it were Turek vs. Ernst, it would be a Lean Dem race IMO.
I think her voting record in Congress offers many ways in which she can be viewed as disqualifying. But I concede it will take voter education to make that stick.
I agree with your assessment of Hinson and IA's political positioning. I'd call Ernst/Turek a toss-up though.
In that same article I linked, Sabato changed both the TX and IA Senate races from Likely Republican to Lean Republican after the TX runoff and IA primary last week.
I think more people are coming onboard with the Iowa race. I still see outright victory for Turek as a 10% scenario. Hinson's regional familiarity in Iowa's most bellwether quadrant makes her uniquely strong for statewide victory, at least in theory. With that said, she's about as empty of a vessel as has ever graced the stage in terms of substance, so I struggle to see what her argument for a promotion will be.
She might argue that a promotion to the Senate would secure more "pro-life, pro freedom" judges for the Trump regime.
Interesting. The buzz on Peltola seems to have faded a lot in the last month. I was surprised that Chuck Todd didn't even include it in his top-5 list of seats most likely to change parties.
Maybe so but Peltola has also consistently been ahead in most polls and we’re not even talking about 1-2 percentage points here.
AK should be Lean Democrat. Sabato is slow like molasses with ratings changes.
If you came here looking for the Pew Political Typology quiz, it's here: https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/
I turned out to be a Leftward Progressive. Which sounds about right.
Same
I got the same thing, which really doesn't feel right for me. Loyal Liberal or Left-Out Left seem more fitting.
Unfortunately, "Just Win, Baby, Sickos", who prioritise the need for Democrats to win elections above all in order to govern and who closely follow election and campaign developments, wasn't an option.
I got left-out left. Would have guessed order and opportunity left beforehand.
I got Loyal Liberal, 2nd from the left. Sounds about right to me.
Same here
loyal liberal, but tbf the questions weren't that detailed. would hate to think im an establishment shill
Same here, and same thoughts.
I normally get the leftmost category in these sorts of things but like you got loyal liberal. Some of the questions definitely did not fully capture my views.
Leftward progressive. Shocker /s
I am apparently a Leftward Progressive, to the surprise of absolutely no one here (including myself).
I came out order-and-opportunity left, the most centrist of the blue groups but also the biggest.
Me too, although I'd probably consider myself more of a Loyal Liberal. That said, as others point out, some of the questions were oddly phrased or ignored key context.
order and opportunity sounds positively orwellian
Agreed...they need a better label for that category...
That's what I got too.
I came out as a Loyal Liberal. Of course, I always find survey questions not detailed enough.
I was surprised to see that I am considered leftward progressive as a question about capitalism being important as of ‘major importance.”
There are those more to the left of me who don’t like capitalism although they’d probably be okay with it when they realize they can make a hell of a lot more money in a capitalist system as opposed to working for the government.
A leftward liberal sounds better to me!
I answered that 'not important at all" and still got loyal liberal.
That capitalism question seems to not favor in that much to the loyalty test.
My answer was mainly because most western countries like the U.S. need a market-based economy in order to effectively function and provide the necessary income tax revenue (as well as other sources of tax revenue). It’s not based on me believing those who favor a capitalist system should condone corporate power over the little guy, private equity vulture capitalism and VCs controlling startups.
I took it twice a day apart, didn't consciously change any answers and got two different results so I assume I must have altered at least one answer slightly and am on the cusp between two results. Leftward Progressive and Left Out Left.
I ranked as a Leftward Progressive, which I probably would be considered if I lived in the United States. Among some of my neighbours here, I think I come across as an establishment shill for the LPC, which I will absolutely agree with. I may catch some flak, but I think big tent parties do need to be able to read the electorate and stay ahead of it, which I think Carney did well last year by moderating to win back defectors from the CPC, but the old guard Democrats have not by matching the energy of the new wave of activists and candidates.
That’s a fair argument. I don’t think any politician should be insulated from what’s going on in the world and should be in tune with where society is.
Loyal liberal. I'd have thought progressive.
I got Loyal Liberals, even though I'm often critical of more moderate elements of the Democratic Party. Here's my answers and how they aligned with the total pool of Loyal Liberals:
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/quiz/political-typology/results/c93fa6075b0d155efcaad670e1ec1dcb
A fair number of the questions were about church-state separation/affairs-related issues, an issue where I am very much on the side of church-state separation. I find it interesting that Pew included some questions about that issue, since it's an issue that I'm very passionate about as an atheist, but it's something that virtually the entire Democratic Party doesn't use as a campaign issue or even an issue of focus in legislative or other government matters.
I’m not an atheist (I’m a church-going Christian) and I’m passionate about church and state separation.
Voters don't seem to punish blatant carpetbagging like they used to. Call it a consequence of all politics getting nationalized.
Probably easier to get away with it in certain states more than others, like Nevada, Arizona, Texas, and Florida with huge transplant populations. Veterans also have the excuse of not always being able to choose where they were stationed.
I think the Reno/Vegas divide is so intense that in cases like that, no way you can outrun the allegation.
Fun fact: Danny Tarkanian secured the only elected office he's ever held by carpetbagging into Douglas County from Vegas.
Amodei himself today: "[T]he Republican candidate advancing to the general election faces a well-positioned Democrat opponent.
It will be an interesting summer and fall, but I believe it’s fair to say that CD-2, for the first time in its history, isn’t a Republican guarantee. What was once a safe prediction may quickly become an expensive one." https://x.com/AmodeiForNevada/status/2065086815371940081
She probably needs to win Carson City in addition to winning Washoe County by a relative landslide
VA-05 (can’t remember if I mentioned this before):
https://weareprogressives.org/congressional-progressive-caucus-pac-endorses-tom-perriello-for-va-05/
The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC has endorsed former Rep. Tom Perriello for this seat. While he is unlikely to win, I’ll say that in this environment, I’m never saying never.
Ugh. I'm still salty about the SCOVA ruling.
You and me both.
SCOVA ruling? Kindly refresh my memory.
The one where the proposition that got voted on to redistrict was undemocratically and brazenly overturned by the GOP-run state court.
Thank you. Overturning referendum results and pissing on voters – in other words par for the course for Republican-controlled courts and legislatures.
Cal Governor. LA Times
Becerra 52 Hilton 31.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2026-06-11/becerra-heads-toward-november-election-with-major-edge-over-hilton-in-governors-race-poll-shows
Do we think Becerra get close to 70%?
Gavin got 62 and 59% in 2018 and 2022, respectively, and I don't think Becerra is a better politician than Gavin.
Agreed. I'm guessing he winds up around 60%, maybe a touch higher.
He might not be much better, if any, but how much better will the 2026 environment be?
Probably not enough to get close to 70, but it could be enough to beat Newsom's vote share if the wave does end up being large.
💯
No. Most likely around 56-58%
With a wave? Interesting postulate.
California is always a Blue Wave! :-)
70%? Not a chance. I'd say he's lucky to get 60%.
Hilton thought he had a chance pre-election.
He’s going to learn the hard way he’s delusional.
I am sure he has already learned that and now is just spreading his usual bull shit!!
Well then, if Hilton has learned he’s delusional, then he has to decide what he’s really in the race for.
Frankly, at this point he’s got nothing to lose as a noted Fox News commentator by getting more media attention.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2026/06/11/brad-lander-trial-immigration-court-congress/90504846007/
NY-10: Former New York City comptroller Brad Lander, a Democrat running in this congressional primary, was found not guilty of obstruction after being arrested last year at a federal immigration courthouse for protesting ICE crackdowns.
Lander was arrested for the right cause. He’s going to make an excellent House Democrat.
Ridiculous that this went to trial.
All the more important to get rid of the Department of Homeland Security and go back to a newly reformed INS.
Ombudsman office for international travel...
NV 2. Retiring incumbent Republican says Democrats have a real shot at winning the seat.
https://x.com/amodeifornevada/status/2065086815371940081?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
We would need an extra big wave in NV to do it. There's not been much polling there yet.
That reads like an invitation to sane Republicans to vote for the Democrat.
Gina Hinojosa is amazing. A cool drink of water. A breath of fresh air.
I wish the media would give her more attention. I wonder if that’s one reason she’s polling behind Talarico.
She needs to campaign with Talarico as often as she can. Like what Anita Earls is doing with Roy Cooper whenever she's not in court.
Talarico needs to want her to campaign with him.
Also, Abbott stronger opponent than Paxton.
https://www.fox9.com/news/minnesota-lawmaker-shootings-vance-boelter-pleads-guilty-federal-charges
Vance Boelter plead guilty to murdering Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband Mark, as well as attempting to murder state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife Yvette.
Boelter also went to the homes of state Rep. Kristin Bahner and state Sen. Ann Rest, presumably attempting to hurt them as well.
Hortman's death had a prominent impact on Gov. Tim Walz's decision to retire from elected office, as well as reinforcing an already known notion that political violence in America is growing.
Are we going to have to learn the hard way that “defunding the police” is a killer in a swing state? Sara Rodriguez internal has Barnes narrowly ahead of Hong in Wisconsin. Rodriguez a distant third.
https://civicmedia.us/news/2026/06/11/new-poll-shows-top-three-emerging-in-democratic-primary-for-governor-in-wisconsin
I'd much rather have Barnes than Hong.
I’d rather Rodriguez, but I’m not sure she can win. Barnes had his own association with the defund the police movement that likely cost him in 2022. Idk why Rodriguez would even release that internal.
I just wish Josh Kaul had run so we wouldn’t have had to deal with this headache.
She probably released it to show that she's the only middle-of-the-party Dem whose support is growing and that they need to consolidate in order to avoid Hong or Barnes being the nominee. I could see a situation where various IE groups see this, decide to spend a couple of million to boost her name ID, and she ends up winning a bunch of the undecideds for a narrow plurality win. The poll definitely shows that none of the candidates besides her, Hong, and Barnes have a shot at winning.
Still think Barnes could have run an ad with some Jan 6 cops disgusted with Johnson to neutralize it.
Maybe they figure that it's more survivable now than in 2022, based on the view that the "defund the police" talk is old now (assuming they haven't said it recently) and that this is shaping up to be a much bluer year than the one in which Barnes only barely lost.
But it still strikes me as a risk that they don't have to, and shouldn't, take. And before anyone cites Zohran Mamdani as a reason why it's nothing to worry about, WI isn't as blue as NYC and its Democratic candidates aren't necessarily as skilled as Zohran proved to be.
A possible concern is that, while such positions may not be as controversial now, they risk becoming controversial in a less blue year. A Barnes or Hong could potentially win in 2026 (although with Hong, I'm still a little nervous), but could they win in 2032? Could become a problem in a later year.
I don’t think Hong can win in 2026 even with how blue the year is. Her *recent* comments on police and prisons will be played on a loop 24/7. That shit doesn’t fly even in blue cities. I have no idea why people think it would in Wisconsin.
Oh no I agree, it's why I said I'm still a little nervous. My thought process was that a D+10 environment might be able to carry her, but that hasn't always been true -- the 2010 GOP wave didn't save that Delaware witch lady or Sharron Angle.
Don’t even need to go back that far. Plenty of bad Republican candidates lost states they should have otherwise won in 2022 and 2024.
I think such positions are controversial now, too, and I agree with you.
Mamdani isn't a defund thr police guy. He's increasing the size of the force.
Not now, but he did call in the past for decreasing funding for the NYPD because he reasoned that the separate department to handle people with mental health issues that he proposed to create would decrease the need for police work
I read about that.
When he ran for mayor though last year, Mamdani was against defunding the police. Although the mainstream media might have argued this is a flip flop, I don’t think this is the case. Mamdani’s been trying to emphasize what police need to do that’s actually worth their time and meant for them in their job description. He’s been very focused on trying to put reason and common sense with how police do their work.
Yes, and I agree with him about that. As far as I know, he's getting along well with the police, but I've mostly been in Berlin for the last few months, so I don't really know. It's annoying that I can't listen to WINS radio in Germany because of some kind of restriction.
Sounds like Zohran Mamdani’s an improvement over Bill DeBlasio as far as police relations are concerned.
Evers & Tammy Baldwin needs to endorse someone and get people to drop out if they care about the party. No clue why they'd be content with letting a clearly flawed candidates blow the parties chances at winning its first trifecta in decades.
The WI-Gov primary is one where I wish ranked choice was used, as both the progressive (Hong, Barnes, Roys) and moderate (Rodriguez, Hughes, Crowley, Brennan) factions are split multiple ways.
Part of the "Polite Right" 1% that subscribes to the Down Ballot. 😅
Welcome!
What is the polite right, and are there any prominent examples thereof?
Think genteel establishment moderates.
Like the outgoing governor of Georgia?
The Polite Right lean conservative on economic issues, hawkish on foreign policy, and moderate on social issues. They also highly value civility.
In 2024, they split 54%-40% between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Susan Collins, and Larry Hogan would be good examples of "Polite Right."
TX Sen: James Talarico is launching his first general election TV ad with a Spanish language spot set to air during the FIFA World Cup. The ad will air on Telemundo during every tournament match in the U.S. and the Mexico groups. "In the 30-second ad, a narrator in Spanish emphasizes Talarico’s background as a teacher and public education advocate, his plans to defend Social Security and Medicare, and his push to raise taxes on billionaires.” The ad buy exceeds $800,000. https://www.texastribune.org/2026/06/11/texas-senate-james-talarico-spanish-ad-world-cup-latino-voters/
This is so smart and shows Talarico’s clear intention to fight for Latino votes. So many voters will be watching the world cup—there are even games in Houston. And to include all games in the groups that include the US and Mexican teams!
Brilliant! Move TX to "likely Dem"!! :-)
I wouldn't go that far yet, Texas is still very red, but I will say that nominating Paxton was a downright insane own goal by the GOP.
Red institutionally yes. However, the cracks are already starting to fall.
The more races Democrats win, the more the party has to get traction in getting power. It will take time though.
TX-Sen - Ken Paxton is openly siding with Brendan Sorsby, the Texas Tech football quarterback accused of betting on college football games his team played in (making Sorsby an extremely controversial figure in the sports world) and waging a legal battle to regain NCAA eligibility.
https://www.instagram.com/p/DZc8zB_kY8u/?igsh=OGhlazhkdjg5N3d0
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/news/content/ar-AA25oXOy?ocid=sapphireappshare
Texas Tech is a Big 12 Conference member (which actually has 16 full-member universities, four of which are in Texas). The Big 12 has threatened to sanction Texas Tech if Sorsby is allowed to play football in the upcoming season.
Paxton is so cartoonishly corrupt.
Which is good, in a way, because it provides more artillery for our side.
Exactly!
Trump helped Talarico big time by endorsing Paxton ahead of the primary.
College football ranks just above God in TX. Dems should make this a huge issue! Sorsby/Texas Tech are doing everything they can to bring down the institution of college football as we know it today and have known it for decades. Paxton is a collaborator!
The Big Ten is considering banning its teams from playing Texas Tech in any sport - this might have legs beyond TX; Ohio and Michigan, anyone?
The Big Ten is reportedly expected to announce they're leaving it up to their individual member schools rather than imposing a conference-wide ban on playing against Texas Tech. Nebraska, a Big Ten member, has already stated they won't play Texas Tech in any sport.
NY-SEN, 2028:
https://www.cityandstateny.com/20th-anniversary/2026/05/whos-going-be-next-senator-new-york/413440/
Can't remember if I shared this article but City and State NY is speculating on who might challenge, or potentially replace (if he retires, which I think he will) Chuck Schumer. The names they mentioned:
- Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (obviously)
- Rep. Ritchie Torres
- Rep. Adriano Espaillat (if he survives his primary)
- Rep. Dan Goldman, or ex-NYC Comptroller Brad Lander if he defeats Goldman
- Whoever wins outgoing Rep. Jerry Nadler's seat (and potentially Assemb. Alex Bores, even if he doesn't)
- Rep. Pat Ryan
- Former FTC Commissioner Lina Khan
- State Sen. James Skoufis
- A former official who wants a comeback (the article floated ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo (blech))
Interestingly, the article did not mention AG Letitia James, who I've seen be floated. Someone on here a while back mentioned some other ex-officials who might try a comeback -- said user specifically floated former Reps. Steve Israel and even Joe Crowley.
My thoughts on these: my stance on AOC running cannot be discussed without violating our ban on presidential primary talk, I despise Torres and hope he doesn't run, I don't think Espaillat will survive his primary (or he'll barely survive and retire in 2028, as one poster here suggested), I think Goldman will lose his primary and Lander will wait and challenge Gillibrand in 2030 (which is my desired outcome), whoever wins Nadler's seat will not have enough experience yet (and Bores doesn't strike me as someone who'd try), Pat Ryan would be a really good unifier pick, Lina Khan probably won't give it a go (although I do really like her), Skoufis should try for Pat Ryan's seat instead if Ryan runs for Senate, Tish James is great but might be too old, and I do not want any comebacks from former politicians in NY, especially not Cuomo or Crowley (although someone on here suggested running Steve Israel as a Suozzi primary challenger a while back, which could be interesting).
Anyway, with that out of the way, what does everyone else here think about this article and these picks? Who would you like to see run? Any names not mentioned here who could be interesting?
"There’s no way a politician with as much “it factor” as AOC has would spend her limited time barnstorming the country as she has done this last year and a half to support Democratic candidates if she didn’t have a race other than Senator on her mind." I'm not sure that's true, or at least not immediately. She's a committed leader of a movement, and that might be enough of a reason.
Agree with Ocasio-Cortez, Goldman and Ryan being likely candidates. I think Espaillat, James, and all of the comeback people are too old. Especially the former, who does have a primary this year and would be about the same age Schumer is now when first elected.
Is Pat Ryan the only non-NYC person on the list? Surely someone from upstate would run, no?
That’s a good point, City and State NY didn’t mention any upstate names.
I wonder who might try from upstate.
And Pat Ryan is hardly upstate, geographically, though I suppose anything more then 30 miles N of NYC is considered upstate.
You know, there IS a well-known NY pol who isn't that old who is likely to be term limited soon and is from Western NY....
Who is that?
I think he’s referring to Hochul. Who I believe will not run due to her unpopularity.
She'd also be 70 as a freshman. I feel like the voter base would prefer someone a bit younger, who can have a longer career in federal politics, like Ocasio-Cortez or Ryan.
Of members of Congress, Riley and Kennedy aren't known and Morelle and Tonko are too old. There's not really any prominent state legislators I can think of. You'd have to look at has-beens like Antonio Delgado, Bill Owens or even Dan Maffei, Anthony Brindisi or Scott Murphy.
Bill Owens is nearly two years older than Schumer.
Poor Dan Maffei managed to suffer the largest defeat of any incumbent in the 2014 cycle (19.2 points). That just seemed excessive for a non-controversial incumbent.
I think AOC will chase off Schumer and everyone else early in the process, and this primary will become a non-event.
If she runs, she's going to break records for most fundraising in 24 hours. She consistently outraises everyone in the house.
Does anyone in NY want to go up against a very popular, well liked candidate with effectively 100% name recognition who will also be in a position to spend $100m on just the primary?
I doubt AOC will have a primary to herself, as she's progressive enough to draw some ire from moderates. Long Island, Hudson Valley, and much of upstate New York have enough moderates to give her a challenge.
Would be sad to see AOC leave the House, but ecstatic to see her replace Schumer in the Senate. Goldman/Torres are worse than Chuck. Lander needs to stay put for a few cycles after beating Goldman, 2030 might be OK. Don't know Ryan well enough to comment. Lina Khan will be in the next Dem cabinet (I hope).
AOC would be an awesome Senator. She’d trigger the RW media even more.
AOC odds on favorite; where do I send $$ ?
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/801237-hes-back-alan-grayson-jumps-into-race-for-cory-mills-seat/
FL-7: Former Democratic Rep. and perennial candidate Alan Grayson will challenge Republican Rep. Cory Mills.
Lol. I want to see that matchup.
Is he ever going to stop trying to run for office again?
I think he's run once (or more) every cycle except 2020 since his first race in 2006, winning in 2008, 2012, and 2014. Trial lawyers don't stop suing when they lose a case.
He's 68, so maybe he'll retire before much longer?
Who knows. He may have been gerrymandered out, knowing Florida’s GOP.
FL-9 may have some minority protections under the VRA since it's Hispanic-majority. Of course, Grayson is not Hispanic, but Darren Soto is. And now that the VRA is done they can get rid of him.
As a matter of fact, Grayson had a primary challenge by University of Central Florida Nick Ruiz back in 2014. He won though by 75% points so the challenge was not credible at all.
Hard to say with where things have been with the FL GOP and gerrymandering since 2014.
Well, a fair map was drawn in 2016, then a gerrymander in 2022, then another gerrymander now. So I guess it has become more egregious over time as the state has trended Republican.
True. Grayson also doesn’t have crossover appeal like Jared Moskowitz so he’d likely have no choice but to stick with blue turf.
He could easily continue to run.
Oy, I'd rather not.