As of Tuesday night/Wednesday morning at 12Midnight EDT/11PM CDT, a government shutdown has taken effect, due to Congress missing the funding deadline and the GOP’s refusal to accept common-sense health insurance protections.
The GOP/Trump/Vought shutdown will have some very costly consequences to our economy.
It will be consequential for the Virginia gubernatorial election as well. Federal workers who might have otherwise gone to work today are freed up to vote early -- as long as the shutdown takes until TACO and GOP can compromise their "clean resolution" to get 6-7 Senate Democrats to vote.
fair, but rosen just won re-election and has plenty of time to take show votes like CCM is now. I'll acknowledge a soft-spot for CCM because if she hadn't held on last time we would be stuck with another laxalt in the senate
Also after being long rumored post-Trump but never quite getting there, 2024 showed that educational polarization comes for all, and the days of the Clark County service workers bailing us out are no more. We're going to have to accept more conservative Dem electeds in Nevada if we want to have any chance of winning the state.
After President Donald Trump on Tuesday suggested cities like Chicago should be used as "training grounds for our military," Gov. JB Pritzker said the 25th Amendment should be invoked to remove the president from office, saying "there is something genuinely wrong with this man."
"What's the point" is actually a valid question because it somewhat seems like we (the country) all stopped caring after about two weeks of Newsom's attacks on Trump. Is there any actual attack on Trump that has legs with the general public? I thought it was Epstein but even that has faded away.
He’s very unpopular but the problem is the GOP could give two shits about the general public when they have a rabid base who at this point prefers him to Jesus
Is he really "very unpopular"? 43% doesn't seem that bad to me. Better than where Biden was 18 months ago, no? And everybody here seemed to think Biden would get reelected with popularity levels below where Trump stands today.
His numbers often come in lower, and are crashing faster than Biden's did in 2021 (which is a better comparison to make than post-midterm Biden).
His numbers could stabilize or rebound—‚and he'll never be as unpopular as, say, end-stage Dubya, because he has a cult who are very unlikely to abandon him—but unless the economy really turns around from where it appears to be headed now, that seems unlikely.
He’s now -9.0 on RCP compilation. Low of the year.
Newsom and Pritzker are really the only ones doing it and it’s having an impact. But it needs others to constantly repeat their attacks to make a greater impact.
I fear that 9 points underwater is not enough to create a meaningful electoral backlash. There are Republicans in that % who hate him but vote straight R, and Dems are even more unpopular and don't seem to be translating his unpopular policy positions into Dem advantages (in issue polling, at least).
I also don't think we should be dismissive of strong R turnout in NJ/VA thus far and hope it will get fixed in the next month. I still think Dems wins both Gov races, but with reduced margins and maybe not many lege victories. Not sure if it's Kirk or something else, but suddenly R's appear to be energized.
Of note: turnout in R areas doesn’t necessarily translate to R support. The police union in VA literally endorsed Spanberger — and for all we know, there may be support for the Dems even in those areas. Still concerned but I thought it’s important to consider.
Right. Hard to see how Trump being single digits underwater can generate the D+8 generic congressional ballot Dems will likely need to overcome the new Republican gerrymanders that appear to just be getting started.
Democrats don’t need a D+8 environment even if every red state that can redraws (they won’t). Last I checked it was about a D+2-4 needed, which isn’t nothing, but not anywhere close to the level you think we need.
It wasn't just that remark but the entire 70 minutes of rambling. I didn't watch the speech, but as I see additional clips from it, not only is Trump nonsensical, but he also appears somewhat drugged.
She seems like a tough opponent. I'm concerned. Her ad is entirely about how she plans to be ethical, nonpartisan, and stand up to political parties. That's a strong argument.
But then again, if she takes any support from the WI GOP, Dems will have the material they need to undermine her credibility. Hopefully, WI Dems can attack her sooner rather than later.
I think she would potentially win, if she weren't running in April 2026. Trump-driven headwinds are going to be tough to overcome, especially given that Ds presently have a strong, favorable turnout differential in off-cycle elections.
But she has the chance to position herself as a forward thinking candidate of the future who will save the world! Elon Musk can do that for her with an appearance and a cheque!.....oh, wait.....
Seriously, I think the SCOWIS race this year was at the very least a "jump the shark" moment if not the end for Elon Musk's days as a right wing political powerhouse, as well as for the media narrative that he had secured the future for the GOP as the party of innovation and forward thinking.
Even if Lazar tells Elon to stay the hell away from Wisconsin next year, how is she going to keep from being tarred as a WI GOP/TACO judicial toady? She can't.
As Kildere53 said, it's misleading to call Mike Thompson a Blue Dog. His actual voting record generally aligns with that of a mainline Democrat.
However, he's been on retirement watch for many years now. I have to wonder if he might step down, and a more high profile Democrat enters this primary instead--especially since the district lines are likely to change.
doing a deep dive into Chicago area open seat primaries, and wow every campaign manager/consultant in the city must be drowning in work. Here's what I have, correct me if I have misimpressions. Looking for candidates who are standouts on climate, haven't really found any yet.
IL-02, everyone is waiting for Jesse Jackson Jr to jump in and he'd be the front runner. Peters has endorsements from Bernie Sanders and David Hogg but that's not necessarily helping him.
IL-07, Danny Davis is trying to anoint LaShawn Ford as his successor. Friedman has raised a lot (can self fund?). Conyears-Ervin has ethics issues. Not sure who else in this crowded field is serious.
IL-08, Melissa Bean ahead per internal poll, discussed in yesterday's Downballot.
IL-09, also very crowded field but the standouts are Kat Abughazaleh, Extremely Online; mayor/ former Gov candidate Daniel Biss; and state senators Laura Fine (mediocre 2Q fundraising) and Mike Simmons, both said to be progressive.
Kat A. and Daniel Biss are the progressive candidates in this race. Kat A. has been endorsed by Rep. Ro Khanna, while Biss received backing from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Recently, I saw a fundraising email from a specific lobby supporting Stevens, Craig, and Fine. Dunno about Simmons though.
I like her campaign though, she’s doing a lot of interesting things like giving campaign money to the poor. Her background isn’t the best but I wouldn’t mind her in Congress.
And call me parochial but I do have a bias against folks running in districts they have tenuous (at best) connections to. Abughazaleh was born in Texas, grew up in Texas and Arizona, and moved to Chicago in 2024 (not in the 9th district). She voted in DC last year.
Admittedly it was a concern initially but I believe it speaks to the Millennial/GenZ reality that we move around all the time. I've lived in LA for 15 years but I've bounced around several Congressional districts during that time. Before that I lived in Milwaukee and the Chicago suburbs but if I moved back home to run in what would be considered "where I grew up" I wouldn't recognize it as the place that I grew up. I'm sure that Biss wins but I like what Kat is doing with her campaign. It's a fresh approach to the same old BS.
I don't like her background but I've liked everything I've seen from her campaign. She's clearly a serious candidate, even if she has a weird career trajectory for this. Ultimately Biss is the most likely candidate to win anyway.
Ansari hasn't broken from any of AIPAC's legislative priorities unlike Dexter and Elfredth who in the words of some online commentators "used and discarded" it.
I’d describe Fine as being a Hayley Stevens type. She’s a loyal Dem who votes the right way on most issues, but she’s never going to make any bold moves in strategy or tactics and would be an establishment New Democratic Caucus type of congressperson. Biss is a Warren-style intellectual progressive type, while Kat is a DSA type.
The New Jersey gubernatorial race has been muddied by the improper release of Mikie Sherrill's complete military record and her Social Security number, which the Archives called "a serious error."
The Trump Administration digging into political opponent's records trying to find anything that even resembles impropriety (see also Lisa Cook) is one of the more chilling things they're doing.
We all know that a lot of Hispanics and Asians who normally vote Democratic pulled the lever for Trump in 2024. But has anyone done an analysis of what types of Hispanics and Asians these people are? It would be logical to assume that they have lower levels of education than Hispanics or Asians as a whole, but is that actually the case? Are these people disproportionately rich or poor compared to Hispanics or Asians as a whole? Are they more recent immigrants or have their families been in America for a long time? Are they generally younger or older? Democrats can't expect to win these voters back if we don't know anything about who they are.
from what I've seen: (a) young (b) men (c) who get their news entirely thru social media. Don't ask for sources, sorry! this is just a very general conclusion from a lot of different inputs.
Youth, Hispanic and Asian support for Democrats have completely recovered according to the Times Siena poll but they make up a small slice of the electorate, so it didn't really matter much in their generic ballot model. It's effect in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Florida elections should be interesting though.
Ala Stanford, the founder of the Black Doctors Consortium, is in, with the backing of outgoing Rep. Dwight Evans. No word on ideological bent as far as I know (although I like Chris Rabb personally.)
The meeting with the military leaders was a call for insurrection!! Taking out citizens who don’t agree with this coup is INSANE!! We cannot sit quietly by waiting for republicans to wake up. LOCK THEM UP!!!
Per Texas Tribune: "State Rep. James Talarico raised $6.2 million in the first three weeks of his bid for Senate, his campaign announced Wednesday, a massive haul that far outpaces the earliest fundraising numbers tallied by recent Democratic statewide hopefuls.
A bit more. Same link. "Talarico’s donations came from more than 125,000 individual contributors across more than 230 Texas counties and all 50 states, according to his campaign. Almost every contribution — 98% — was for $100 or less, with teachers making up the largest share of donors."
Although outshone by Talarico’s huge quarter, Colin Allred’s fundraising was also excellent. Indeed, his campaign raised more in 3Q than any candidate for senate raised in 2Q except Ossoff. In 3Q, Allred raised $4.1 million from more than 100,000 donations averaging $32 each.
Depends on the environment. Cornyn isn't beloved by the base so even if he comes out of the primary, bloodied and having spent a lot of money running to the right, it could be game on.
"Scoop: Bernie-backed oyster farmer raises $3.2M in Maine Senate race
Why it matters: It won't be a cakewalk for Maine Gov. Janet Mills if she jumps into the Democratic contest to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in 2026.
Platner, a 41-year-old first-time candidate, has the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and is attracting large crowds at his events.
Platner received donations from 80,000 individual donors, with an average contribution of $31, according to his campaign.
"With this massive fundraising haul, we are sending a clear message to Susan Collins and the entire Republican and Democratic establishment that we're all in to defeat Susan Collins in 2026," Platner said in a statement.
Zoom in: The momentum behind Platner shows the appetite among Democratic voters for candidates who take on the party's establishment."
A comparative metric: "In the first three weeks of Talarico’s primary run, a campaign spokesman said, he raised over $6 million from more than 125,000 individual donors. By comparison, when the Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke raised $2.2 million over 45 days in 2018, The Texas Tribune described it as a “massive haul.”"
"Talarico is an underdog in the Texas Senate Democratic primary, where polls show him running behind Colin Allred, who challenged Senator Ted Cruz in 2024. That gap might close as more people get to know Talarico; a September Public Policy Polling survey found that among those who had a favorable opinion of both him and Allred, Talarico led by a significant 50 percentage points. But cinching the nomination would be the easy part, given that no Democrat has won statewide office in Texas in over 30 years."
"Amanda Litman, Run for Something’s co-founder, believes that the secret to his success comes to down to authenticity, an overused word in politics, but an elusive quality. She compared Talarico to Mamdani, another young populist with a talent for social media and an ability to speak extemporaneously without resorting to consultant-crafted pablum. “Not that they have the same beliefs, but they so clearly know who they are and what they believe, so they’re able to communicate that in a way that breaks through in this media environment,” she said."
Democrats like to do things one tier below what we're capable of. When we could go for a symbolic victory, making a message and getting attention, we do nothing. When they could do something, they go for the symbolic victory.
Democrats in Texas had the ability to fight this one out. A month of protest followed by folding was a waste of everyone's time.
I doubt Talarico was the one calling the shots and once everyone else folds there's no point in him staying out anyway, so I'm not begrudging him for this but I'm not buying the excuse of getting attention on the matter. It's weak.
The president’s favorables are sliding, even on his best issues. But Capitol Hill Republicans are determined to sink or swim with Trump—and they’re convinced they’ll be on the right side of the shutdown blame game, too.
Nobody remembered the three (?) day January 2018 government shutdown by November. The longer shutdown occurred after the election.
But that doesn't change the fact that congressional Republicans are only fooling themselves if they think that they'll come out on the "swim" side with the public. Trump's approvals, never very high, are very well underwater even without a shutdown, which probably won't be a big voting factor next November. And if it is because of prolonged economic damage or poor/non-existent services, then that's just another anvil on top of what they've already been thrown.
Lakshya also says that Trump's current unpopularity is actually far more dangerous to his party than it was in his first term, as it's heavily due to bad feelings about the economy and other policy and is not mostly based on his own individual behaviour or personal blunders, making it harder for other Republicans to separate themselves from him.
During Trump's first term he wasn't personally popular but benefitted from what was seen as a good economy (though I think retrospectively it's been painted as far rosier than it was). The GOP did receive some punishment from voters for overreach on issues such as health care, but now they have the double whammy of that and economic discontent which in many cases has been directly caused or worsened by their policies.
and as much as I find some of his takes frustrating, his purely electoral takes are quite good. His posts the entire month of October last year were sober assessments of why things just did not look good for us. Makes me feel all the more confident in his more optimistic take this cycle.
I'm done with Rachel Bitecofer's hot takes, apart from using negative partisanship against Republicans.
She's fearmongering like no tomorrow about the shutdown giving TACO free reign to fire more people (he was already doing that prior). TACO has an incentive to get it back open, because ICE won't get funding during the shutdown.
Jain is at least clear eyed about the long-term effects.
The shitty thing about political polarization is the incentive for moderates to triangulate gets smaller and smaller. So even if you appear to be a surefire loser in 2018, going against Trump won't get enough swing voters on your side, AND now you've made yourself a social pariah among your clan, receive who knows how many death threats, and limit post-congressional job opportunities (unless you lean heavily into the Never-Trump orbit and basically become a Dem convert a la Walsh).
We're pretty much going to be in the 7th circle of hell into perpetuity until we can expand the Court to enact real gerrymandering reform and campaign finance restrictions.
I suspect Congressional Republicans think when it comes to actual head-to-head contests, they can leverage immigration, crime, and gender issues right across the finish line. They might be right. Many of them also know Trump's got their back in helping them secure a redder district before next November.
The immigration/crime/gender stuff seems to sell better when Republicans are out of power. Remember 2018 when "tHe CaRaVaN" was coming (and after early November, curiously never mentioned again)...
I am already calling the VA-GOV race for Abigail Spanberger as the government shutdown hits NoVa government workers directly. Not going to be possible for Winsome Earle Sears to get any kind of momentum in her race with this situation.
Ryan Walters is officially gone as OK superintendent, pending a new appointee to run in the 2026 election. Some potential appointees are Nellie Sanders, the governor-appointed education secretary beneath Walters as the elected official, and State Rep. Mark McBride, a Walter critic. https://www.koco.com/article/who-could-lead-osde-after-ryan-walters-resignation/68081990
Somewhat relatedly, Kirsten Baesler, the ND superintendent, had been languishing for a floor vote to be Assistant Secretary of Education for Early/Secondary Education after getting thru committee back in May. There were questions about if Loomer types were trying to get her nomination pulled for not being pure enough, as well as some question about how she'd wanted to be nominated as deputy secretary (which became open again after Penny Schwinn withdrew her nomination in July). Baesler and Gov. Armstrong have since made statements about preparing for her departure, explicitly linking it to the Senate Repub rules change allowing bloc floor votes on nominees. So they seem confident she won't be separated out and will be confirmed soon. The appointee will have to stand in a special election next year and then the full term is up again in 2028. Seems like they want a new appointee in asap (they've had plenty of time to prepare...) but aren't naming names. https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/gov-kelly-armstrong-the-state-wants-to-hit-the-ground-running-after-baeslers-federal-confirmation
Interesting, this article also named State Sen. Adam Pugh and former State Rep. (and chair of the state house's Education Committee) Rhonda Baker--"But both are ineligible under the state constitution, which bars lawmakers from being appointed to state office during their term or within two years after." So that would seem to take McBride out too.
Why I think their threat of mass layoffs is primarily a bluff; the job market is already in the shitter; laying off tens of thousands more workers (and federal jobs have a longer tail of connected private sector jobs that also get impacted) sends us into a recession.
As of Tuesday night/Wednesday morning at 12Midnight EDT/11PM CDT, a government shutdown has taken effect, due to Congress missing the funding deadline and the GOP’s refusal to accept common-sense health insurance protections.
The GOP/Trump/Vought shutdown will have some very costly consequences to our economy.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/government-shutdown-congress-trump_n_68dc69f7e4b0f3800bcd20cc
It will be consequential for the Virginia gubernatorial election as well. Federal workers who might have otherwise gone to work today are freed up to vote early -- as long as the shutdown takes until TACO and GOP can compromise their "clean resolution" to get 6-7 Senate Democrats to vote.
And they won't be voting for Earle Sears.
CCM of Nevada, Angus King of Maine and the putrid John Fetterman voted for the CR.
CCM has a tough state to win in. King 's vote is disgusting.
I wonder if this is King’s last term and he no longer cares. He’s getting pretty old.
King has also been a legit centrist and institutionalist. I think he just legit thought it was the right vote to take.
He is a centrist not an obsessive triangulator; I've never heard his name among those who usually obstruct bills and nominees.
Got it. I concede my claim.
Rosen is in the same state and didn’t vote that way. CCM also helped had Trump a seat in the Third Circuit Court of Appeals.
Yeah, and Masto isn't up until 2028.
fair, but rosen just won re-election and has plenty of time to take show votes like CCM is now. I'll acknowledge a soft-spot for CCM because if she hadn't held on last time we would be stuck with another laxalt in the senate
Also after being long rumored post-Trump but never quite getting there, 2024 showed that educational polarization comes for all, and the days of the Clark County service workers bailing us out are no more. We're going to have to accept more conservative Dem electeds in Nevada if we want to have any chance of winning the state.
NJ-3:
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025/09/zdan-mulling-bid-for-congress-against-conaway-00588389
Paywalled article, but apparently GOP News 12 reporter Alex Zdan is considering running against Dem Rep. Herb Conaway.
Threat, or no? I remember when Zdan ran for Senate and they had said he was involved in the Bob Menendez reporting.
NJ-03 got a lot bluer in redistricting. Should be safe Dem regardless.
Not a threat. Certainly not in 2026.
Got it. Thanks all.
Just because they're on tv doesn't mean they have a clue
Astute observation.
After President Donald Trump on Tuesday suggested cities like Chicago should be used as "training grounds for our military," Gov. JB Pritzker said the 25th Amendment should be invoked to remove the president from office, saying "there is something genuinely wrong with this man."
https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/jb-pritzker-donald-trump-vladimir-putin-25th-amendment-military-training-grounds/
I was going to say that Shitler’s mental health should be an attack line used by Democrats in Washington. But then I remembered, what’s the point.
"What's the point" is actually a valid question because it somewhat seems like we (the country) all stopped caring after about two weeks of Newsom's attacks on Trump. Is there any actual attack on Trump that has legs with the general public? I thought it was Epstein but even that has faded away.
His approved rating dropped to all-time lows except for J6 after the Kimmel fiasco.
He’s very unpopular but the problem is the GOP could give two shits about the general public when they have a rabid base who at this point prefers him to Jesus
Exactly; as long as the base is loyal, even the most institutionalist Republicans can't do anything, or they'll lose their primaries.
Then what excuse do retiring senators like Tillis have? Or the Supreme Court?
Or for that matter Schumer and Jeffries? Or leaders of powerful institutions like the media or universities?
We all know the Republican judges on the Supreme Court have been bribed.
Is he really "very unpopular"? 43% doesn't seem that bad to me. Better than where Biden was 18 months ago, no? And everybody here seemed to think Biden would get reelected with popularity levels below where Trump stands today.
His numbers often come in lower, and are crashing faster than Biden's did in 2021 (which is a better comparison to make than post-midterm Biden).
His numbers could stabilize or rebound—‚and he'll never be as unpopular as, say, end-stage Dubya, because he has a cult who are very unlikely to abandon him—but unless the economy really turns around from where it appears to be headed now, that seems unlikely.
He’s now -9.0 on RCP compilation. Low of the year.
Newsom and Pritzker are really the only ones doing it and it’s having an impact. But it needs others to constantly repeat their attacks to make a greater impact.
I fear that 9 points underwater is not enough to create a meaningful electoral backlash. There are Republicans in that % who hate him but vote straight R, and Dems are even more unpopular and don't seem to be translating his unpopular policy positions into Dem advantages (in issue polling, at least).
I also don't think we should be dismissive of strong R turnout in NJ/VA thus far and hope it will get fixed in the next month. I still think Dems wins both Gov races, but with reduced margins and maybe not many lege victories. Not sure if it's Kirk or something else, but suddenly R's appear to be energized.
Of note: turnout in R areas doesn’t necessarily translate to R support. The police union in VA literally endorsed Spanberger — and for all we know, there may be support for the Dems even in those areas. Still concerned but I thought it’s important to consider.
It’s RCP so that -9 is probably more like -12 or -13. Not seeing any noticeable increase in gop voter enthusiasm. What polling is indicating that?
Right. Hard to see how Trump being single digits underwater can generate the D+8 generic congressional ballot Dems will likely need to overcome the new Republican gerrymanders that appear to just be getting started.
A lot will depend on how many of Trump's low-engagement supporters turn out.
Democrats don’t need a D+8 environment even if every red state that can redraws (they won’t). Last I checked it was about a D+2-4 needed, which isn’t nothing, but not anywhere close to the level you think we need.
Which is not the same as "what's the point." I can't sign onto that opinion, if it was meant seriously.
It wasn't just that remark but the entire 70 minutes of rambling. I didn't watch the speech, but as I see additional clips from it, not only is Trump nonsensical, but he also appears somewhat drugged.
WI-Supreme Court:
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2025/10/01/conservative-maria-lazar-launches-wisconsin-supreme-court-campaign/86096645007/
Conservative Court of Appeals judge Maria Lazar is in, as the de facto GOP pick.
She seems like a tough opponent. I'm concerned. Her ad is entirely about how she plans to be ethical, nonpartisan, and stand up to political parties. That's a strong argument.
But then again, if she takes any support from the WI GOP, Dems will have the material they need to undermine her credibility. Hopefully, WI Dems can attack her sooner rather than later.
I think she would potentially win, if she weren't running in April 2026. Trump-driven headwinds are going to be tough to overcome, especially given that Ds presently have a strong, favorable turnout differential in off-cycle elections.
I think Lazar is going to have her ass handed to her by Chris Taylor.
Angry voters flipped two SCOWI seats in 2018 and 2020 thanks to TACO. That won't change next year.
But she has the chance to position herself as a forward thinking candidate of the future who will save the world! Elon Musk can do that for her with an appearance and a cheque!.....oh, wait.....
Seriously, I think the SCOWIS race this year was at the very least a "jump the shark" moment if not the end for Elon Musk's days as a right wing political powerhouse, as well as for the media narrative that he had secured the future for the GOP as the party of innovation and forward thinking.
Even if Lazar tells Elon to stay the hell away from Wisconsin next year, how is she going to keep from being tarred as a WI GOP/TACO judicial toady? She can't.
Progressive anti-inequality venture capitalist running to primary Mike Thompson, a Blue Dog Dem of California
https://www.pressdemocrat.com/2025/09/09/why-rival-democrat-eric-jones-thinks-he-can-unseat-mike-thompson-north-bays-senior-congressman/
I thought Mike Thompson was a BDINO (Blue Dog in name only), and that he was actually a pretty good Democrat.
I dunno much abt him but I have often seen his name stand out in censures, bills and resolutions.
Are you confusing him with Bennie Thompson of Mississippi, who has been the target of multiple censure motions?
No like he often breaks the party lines in bills and votes to censure colleagues.
Correct
"anti-inequality venture capitalist" is a hell of a CV
Many such cases. e.g: some Mamdanicrats.
As Kildere53 said, it's misleading to call Mike Thompson a Blue Dog. His actual voting record generally aligns with that of a mainline Democrat.
However, he's been on retirement watch for many years now. I have to wonder if he might step down, and a more high profile Democrat enters this primary instead--especially since the district lines are likely to change.
He is in a leadership position in the Blue Dog Caucus, blame him not me.
Makes an active choice to be one of the very few members of the rump Blue Dogs, but he's not in their leadership.
doing a deep dive into Chicago area open seat primaries, and wow every campaign manager/consultant in the city must be drowning in work. Here's what I have, correct me if I have misimpressions. Looking for candidates who are standouts on climate, haven't really found any yet.
IL-02, everyone is waiting for Jesse Jackson Jr to jump in and he'd be the front runner. Peters has endorsements from Bernie Sanders and David Hogg but that's not necessarily helping him.
IL-07, Danny Davis is trying to anoint LaShawn Ford as his successor. Friedman has raised a lot (can self fund?). Conyears-Ervin has ethics issues. Not sure who else in this crowded field is serious.
IL-08, Melissa Bean ahead per internal poll, discussed in yesterday's Downballot.
IL-09, also very crowded field but the standouts are Kat Abughazaleh, Extremely Online; mayor/ former Gov candidate Daniel Biss; and state senators Laura Fine (mediocre 2Q fundraising) and Mike Simmons, both said to be progressive.
Kat A. and Daniel Biss are the progressive candidates in this race. Kat A. has been endorsed by Rep. Ro Khanna, while Biss received backing from Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Recently, I saw a fundraising email from a specific lobby supporting Stevens, Craig, and Fine. Dunno about Simmons though.
I guess Abughazaleh deserves some credit for helping push Schakowsky to retire, but I have no desire for more self-described influencers in Congress.
I like her campaign though, she’s doing a lot of interesting things like giving campaign money to the poor. Her background isn’t the best but I wouldn’t mind her in Congress.
And call me parochial but I do have a bias against folks running in districts they have tenuous (at best) connections to. Abughazaleh was born in Texas, grew up in Texas and Arizona, and moved to Chicago in 2024 (not in the 9th district). She voted in DC last year.
Admittedly it was a concern initially but I believe it speaks to the Millennial/GenZ reality that we move around all the time. I've lived in LA for 15 years but I've bounced around several Congressional districts during that time. Before that I lived in Milwaukee and the Chicago suburbs but if I moved back home to run in what would be considered "where I grew up" I wouldn't recognize it as the place that I grew up. I'm sure that Biss wins but I like what Kat is doing with her campaign. It's a fresh approach to the same old BS.
I get that point about younger people moving more, but Kat has never lived in the district, or even really in the area, for any real period of time.
People today move a lot less than they did in the past. We're a generally less mobile society.
Sure, but you wouldn’t move from LA to Atlanta and run for Congress a few months later. That’s basically what Kat did here.
Indeed. My hometown in SoCal is a lot different than when I moved out 30 years ago.
Same, I am rooting for Biss. He was a popular mayor.
I do like Biss. In 2018 he was the progressive option for Governor (prior to Pritzker embracing the left.)
I don't like her background but I've liked everything I've seen from her campaign. She's clearly a serious candidate, even if she has a weird career trajectory for this. Ultimately Biss is the most likely candidate to win anyway.
And also Bushra Amiwala, though she doesn’t have much of a chance of winning.
Fine is the AIPAC candidate, which worries me. Although she could also end up being secretly good like Maxine Dexter or Yassamin Ansari.
I like Kat and Biss personally. Simmons seems good too.
Ansari hasn't broken from any of AIPAC's legislative priorities unlike Dexter and Elfredth who in the words of some online commentators "used and discarded" it.
I’d describe Fine as being a Hayley Stevens type. She’s a loyal Dem who votes the right way on most issues, but she’s never going to make any bold moves in strategy or tactics and would be an establishment New Democratic Caucus type of congressperson. Biss is a Warren-style intellectual progressive type, while Kat is a DSA type.
Chicago DSA can be a mess, but wouldn't taint them with Abughazaleh lol
In IL-07, Boykin is the de facto DINO candidate with Paul Vallas and Willie Wilson endorsing him.
Boykin was the one who called for UN intervention in Chicago due to crime.
https://abc7chicago.com/amp/post/boykin-asks-un-for-help-fighting-chicago-violence/2780474/
I sincerely hope he does not win.
he wont
He's so stupid lol
The New Jersey gubernatorial race has been muddied by the improper release of Mikie Sherrill's complete military record and her Social Security number, which the Archives called "a serious error."
The Trump Administration digging into political opponent's records trying to find anything that even resembles impropriety (see also Lisa Cook) is one of the more chilling things they're doing.
Muddled as in how? The polling still strong for Mikie…
We all know that a lot of Hispanics and Asians who normally vote Democratic pulled the lever for Trump in 2024. But has anyone done an analysis of what types of Hispanics and Asians these people are? It would be logical to assume that they have lower levels of education than Hispanics or Asians as a whole, but is that actually the case? Are these people disproportionately rich or poor compared to Hispanics or Asians as a whole? Are they more recent immigrants or have their families been in America for a long time? Are they generally younger or older? Democrats can't expect to win these voters back if we don't know anything about who they are.
from what I've seen: (a) young (b) men (c) who get their news entirely thru social media. Don't ask for sources, sorry! this is just a very general conclusion from a lot of different inputs.
Youth, Hispanic and Asian support for Democrats have completely recovered according to the Times Siena poll but they make up a small slice of the electorate, so it didn't really matter much in their generic ballot model. It's effect in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Texas and Florida elections should be interesting though.
PA-3:
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/doctor-ala-stanford-campaign-congress/4278335/
Ala Stanford, the founder of the Black Doctors Consortium, is in, with the backing of outgoing Rep. Dwight Evans. No word on ideological bent as far as I know (although I like Chris Rabb personally.)
That makes two doctors in the primary, interesting
The meeting with the military leaders was a call for insurrection!! Taking out citizens who don’t agree with this coup is INSANE!! We cannot sit quietly by waiting for republicans to wake up. LOCK THEM UP!!!
The problem: who would prosecute them?
I’d laugh but to be honest all their lawyers and judges would be in the slammer with them right???
How?
Well we have police and national guards who are supposed to protect us citizens from domestic terrorist right? All it takes is one ☝️
Per Texas Tribune: "State Rep. James Talarico raised $6.2 million in the first three weeks of his bid for Senate, his campaign announced Wednesday, a massive haul that far outpaces the earliest fundraising numbers tallied by recent Democratic statewide hopefuls.
The staggering total establishes Talarico as an immediate fundraising juggernaut and gives him an early edge over his rival in the Democratic primary, former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred, who announced a $4.1 million haul over the three months since his July 1 campaign launch." https://www.texastribune.org/2025/10/01/texas-senate-democratic-fundraising-james-talarico-colin-allred/?_bhlid=e0f64f33e0acfb578716f1ee96850e5a88991cf0
A bit more. Same link. "Talarico’s donations came from more than 125,000 individual contributors across more than 230 Texas counties and all 50 states, according to his campaign. Almost every contribution — 98% — was for $100 or less, with teachers making up the largest share of donors."
Although outshone by Talarico’s huge quarter, Colin Allred’s fundraising was also excellent. Indeed, his campaign raised more in 3Q than any candidate for senate raised in 2Q except Ossoff. In 3Q, Allred raised $4.1 million from more than 100,000 donations averaging $32 each.
WOW
I think Talarico has a shot. If he's against Paxton.
Against Cornyn, it's much dicier.
Depends on the environment. Cornyn isn't beloved by the base so even if he comes out of the primary, bloodied and having spent a lot of money running to the right, it could be game on.
Wesley Hunt is also joining the race, and he is a hardcore tea partier.
Is that for sure? He's been dancing around it for a while.
Sure as per reporting. He has already spent millions in boosting his name recognition.
Nothing would please me more than to see the 2026 midterms be a repeat of 2006 -- and flip seats people originally wrote off.
"Scoop: Bernie-backed oyster farmer raises $3.2M in Maine Senate race
Why it matters: It won't be a cakewalk for Maine Gov. Janet Mills if she jumps into the Democratic contest to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in 2026.
Platner, a 41-year-old first-time candidate, has the endorsement of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and is attracting large crowds at his events.
Platner received donations from 80,000 individual donors, with an average contribution of $31, according to his campaign.
"With this massive fundraising haul, we are sending a clear message to Susan Collins and the entire Republican and Democratic establishment that we're all in to defeat Susan Collins in 2026," Platner said in a statement.
Zoom in: The momentum behind Platner shows the appetite among Democratic voters for candidates who take on the party's establishment."
https://www.axios.com/2025/10/01/maine-senate-graham-platner-fundraising-sanders
A comparative metric: "In the first three weeks of Talarico’s primary run, a campaign spokesman said, he raised over $6 million from more than 125,000 individual donors. By comparison, when the Texas Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke raised $2.2 million over 45 days in 2018, The Texas Tribune described it as a “massive haul.”"
"Talarico is an underdog in the Texas Senate Democratic primary, where polls show him running behind Colin Allred, who challenged Senator Ted Cruz in 2024. That gap might close as more people get to know Talarico; a September Public Policy Polling survey found that among those who had a favorable opinion of both him and Allred, Talarico led by a significant 50 percentage points. But cinching the nomination would be the easy part, given that no Democrat has won statewide office in Texas in over 30 years."
"Amanda Litman, Run for Something’s co-founder, believes that the secret to his success comes to down to authenticity, an overused word in politics, but an elusive quality. She compared Talarico to Mamdani, another young populist with a talent for social media and an ability to speak extemporaneously without resorting to consultant-crafted pablum. “Not that they have the same beliefs, but they so clearly know who they are and what they believe, so they’re able to communicate that in a way that breaks through in this media environment,” she said."
https://archive.ph/XK9rS
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/01/opinion/james-talarico-religious-left.html
I still want to know his opinion about the Democrats in the State Legislature caving. Has no-one ever asked him about that?
The Texas Dem leadership said it was about raising issue salience and educating voters all around the country, especially in California.
That's such a weak thing to do though.
Democrats like to do things one tier below what we're capable of. When we could go for a symbolic victory, making a message and getting attention, we do nothing. When they could do something, they go for the symbolic victory.
Democrats in Texas had the ability to fight this one out. A month of protest followed by folding was a waste of everyone's time.
I doubt Talarico was the one calling the shots and once everyone else folds there's no point in him staying out anyway, so I'm not begrudging him for this but I'm not buying the excuse of getting attention on the matter. It's weak.
I know that's what they claimed. I'm not the least bit satisfied with that, but Talarico is not leadership and should be asked for his opinion.
Such a waste to have both these guys in the same race...why on earth can't one run for Governor instead?
God DAMN!
This really is becoming a Democratic Senate Primary Race.
the Adelita Grijalva situation is infuriating. As promised, we are running a petition. I am hearing that Johnson will wait until Oct 14 at the earliest. Sign our petition -- or make your own noise. (I saw a Downballot post on Bluesky but it was deleted?) https://actionnetwork.org/petitions/tell-speaker-maga-mike-johnson-seat-adelita-grijalva-now/
Beyond the Trump Disapproval Matrix
The president’s favorables are sliding, even on his best issues. But Capitol Hill Republicans are determined to sink or swim with Trump—and they’re convinced they’ll be on the right side of the shutdown blame game, too.
https://puck.news/why-republicans-are-sticking-with-trump-despite-lAow-polls/
They lost the 2018 midterms after TACO's first government shutdown. And it will happen again next year.
They just won't listen.
Nobody remembered the three (?) day January 2018 government shutdown by November. The longer shutdown occurred after the election.
But that doesn't change the fact that congressional Republicans are only fooling themselves if they think that they'll come out on the "swim" side with the public. Trump's approvals, never very high, are very well underwater even without a shutdown, which probably won't be a big voting factor next November. And if it is because of prolonged economic damage or poor/non-existent services, then that's just another anvil on top of what they've already been thrown.
It's as Lakysha Jain said, more people are getting more of what TACO wanted and they HATE it.
Lakshya also says that Trump's current unpopularity is actually far more dangerous to his party than it was in his first term, as it's heavily due to bad feelings about the economy and other policy and is not mostly based on his own individual behaviour or personal blunders, making it harder for other Republicans to separate themselves from him.
During Trump's first term he wasn't personally popular but benefitted from what was seen as a good economy (though I think retrospectively it's been painted as far rosier than it was). The GOP did receive some punishment from voters for overreach on issues such as health care, but now they have the double whammy of that and economic discontent which in many cases has been directly caused or worsened by their policies.
and as much as I find some of his takes frustrating, his purely electoral takes are quite good. His posts the entire month of October last year were sober assessments of why things just did not look good for us. Makes me feel all the more confident in his more optimistic take this cycle.
I'm done with Rachel Bitecofer's hot takes, apart from using negative partisanship against Republicans.
She's fearmongering like no tomorrow about the shutdown giving TACO free reign to fire more people (he was already doing that prior). TACO has an incentive to get it back open, because ICE won't get funding during the shutdown.
Jain is at least clear eyed about the long-term effects.
I find his ideological commentary bad but his electoral takes are quite good.
The shitty thing about political polarization is the incentive for moderates to triangulate gets smaller and smaller. So even if you appear to be a surefire loser in 2018, going against Trump won't get enough swing voters on your side, AND now you've made yourself a social pariah among your clan, receive who knows how many death threats, and limit post-congressional job opportunities (unless you lean heavily into the Never-Trump orbit and basically become a Dem convert a la Walsh).
We're pretty much going to be in the 7th circle of hell into perpetuity until we can expand the Court to enact real gerrymandering reform and campaign finance restrictions.
I suspect Congressional Republicans think when it comes to actual head-to-head contests, they can leverage immigration, crime, and gender issues right across the finish line. They might be right. Many of them also know Trump's got their back in helping them secure a redder district before next November.
The immigration/crime/gender stuff seems to sell better when Republicans are out of power. Remember 2018 when "tHe CaRaVaN" was coming (and after early November, curiously never mentioned again)...
I am already calling the VA-GOV race for Abigail Spanberger as the government shutdown hits NoVa government workers directly. Not going to be possible for Winsome Earle Sears to get any kind of momentum in her race with this situation.
Ryan Walters is officially gone as OK superintendent, pending a new appointee to run in the 2026 election. Some potential appointees are Nellie Sanders, the governor-appointed education secretary beneath Walters as the elected official, and State Rep. Mark McBride, a Walter critic. https://www.koco.com/article/who-could-lead-osde-after-ryan-walters-resignation/68081990
Somewhat relatedly, Kirsten Baesler, the ND superintendent, had been languishing for a floor vote to be Assistant Secretary of Education for Early/Secondary Education after getting thru committee back in May. There were questions about if Loomer types were trying to get her nomination pulled for not being pure enough, as well as some question about how she'd wanted to be nominated as deputy secretary (which became open again after Penny Schwinn withdrew her nomination in July). Baesler and Gov. Armstrong have since made statements about preparing for her departure, explicitly linking it to the Senate Repub rules change allowing bloc floor votes on nominees. So they seem confident she won't be separated out and will be confirmed soon. The appointee will have to stand in a special election next year and then the full term is up again in 2028. Seems like they want a new appointee in asap (they've had plenty of time to prepare...) but aren't naming names. https://www.grandforksherald.com/news/gov-kelly-armstrong-the-state-wants-to-hit-the-ground-running-after-baeslers-federal-confirmation
Interesting, this article also named State Sen. Adam Pugh and former State Rep. (and chair of the state house's Education Committee) Rhonda Baker--"But both are ineligible under the state constitution, which bars lawmakers from being appointed to state office during their term or within two years after." So that would seem to take McBride out too.
https://www.news9.com/story/68d5bf88791876835b2d8362/governor-stitt-prepares-to-appoint-new-state-superintendent-after-walters-departure
https://x.com/MorePerfectUS/status/1973424931603095698
Oops!
Why I think their threat of mass layoffs is primarily a bluff; the job market is already in the shitter; laying off tens of thousands more workers (and federal jobs have a longer tail of connected private sector jobs that also get impacted) sends us into a recession.
Depends on the job market.
Consulting as an industry is on a hiring spree right now but of course it doesn’t reflect on the overall economy at large.