Morning Digest: How Minnesota Democrats are fighting to preserve their hard-won trifecta

The closely divided state House is a top 2024 battleground

Democrat Mark Munger is campaigning to flip a seat in the Iron Range the GOP narrowly won in 2022 (Credit: Mark Munger for state representative)

Leading Off

MN State House

Democrats are defending their small 70-64 majority in the Minnesota House next month, when a large number of potentially competitive seats will be on the ballot. MinnPost helps narrow down the playing field with its new look at 16 key races.

Republicans are hoping to flip the requisite four seats despite Gov. Tim Walz's presence on the Democrats' national ticket. Walz's party, meanwhile, is aiming to expand its slender majority and win a state Senate special election to safeguard the hard-won trifecta it secured two years ago.

Victories would allow Democrats to preserve the Land of 10,000 Lakes' status as, in the words of NBC, a "laboratory in pushing progressive policy." An accompanying national win for the Harris-Walz ticket would also elevate Minnesota's current lieutenant governor, Peggy Flanagan, to oversee this project, making her the first Native American woman to serve as governor of any state.

The overall battlefield favors Democrats: Joe Biden's 52-45 statewide victory allowed him to carry 77 seats in the state House, according to VEST data from Dave's Redistricting App, while Donald Trump took the remaining 57 districts. A total of eight Republicans represent constituencies that Biden won, while the only Democrat on Trump turf is state Rep. Dave Lislegard.

Lislegard, though, unexpectedly announced his retirement around Memorial Day, a move that gave Democrats little time to find a replacement candidate. Lorrie Janatopoulos stepped up to defend his seat in northeastern Minnesota's Iron Range, a once reliably Democratic region that has swung hard to the right over the last decade. Her GOP opponent is Cal Warwas, who touts himself as "a pro-mining activist" who wants to "restore balance to state government."

Warwas, though, has used far less temperate language online. The Minnesota Reformer's Christopher Ingraham reported last month that the Republican had fired off homophobic and transphobic rhetoric posts and shared memes questioning why "white pride" is a racist term. But that may not be enough to keep him from flipping District 7B, which favored Trump 51-47 in 2020. 

(The district is identified with both a letter and a number because Minnesota nests two House districts in each Senate district. The district Lislegard represents forms half of the 7th Senate District. District 7A is even more conservative at 55-43 Trump, so GOP state Rep. Spencer Igo should have little to worry about.)

MinnPost identifies eight other GOP pickup opportunities, and though each of these seats favored Biden, some were close. The most competitive of these is District 18A, a southern Minnesota constituency that backed Biden 50-47 and where Democratic incumbent Jeff Brand is in for yet another competitive battle. 

Brand first won during the 2018 blue wave, narrowly lost reelection in 2020 to Republican Susan Akland, and then prevailed 51-49 in a 2022 rematch. His opponent this time is Republican Erica Schwartz.

Democrats, though, have their own set of targets, including one contest where a scandal involving the GOP incumbent has attracted outside attention in recent weeks. That race is the rematch between Republican state Rep. Jeff Dotseth and the Democrat he unseated two years ago, Pete Radosevich, in District 11A. Biden carried it by a slim 49.2-48.5 margin.

In June, MinnPost identified the district, which is located just south of the seat Lislegard is giving up, as a "reach" for Democrats. Three months later, though, the Minnesota Star Tribune reported that Dotseth's then-wife had accused him of abusing her for more than a decade in 2008 divorce proceedings. Her son, who is Black, also said in an affidavit from that time that Dotseth "would say things like, if slavery was still around today, he would have slaves." The Republican has denied the allegations.

MinnPost also highlights an additional six GOP-held seats as competitive. The bluest constituency on this list is District 3B in the Iron Range, which backed Biden by a 52-46 spread. Republican Natalie Zeleznikar two years later unseated 23-term incumbent Mary Murphy by 33 votes. Now, she's fighting to hold on against Democrat Mark Munger. (A well-known local recreational trail is named for Munger's late uncle, ​​former state Rep. Willard Munger.)

The 67-member state Senate, meanwhile, is currently tied because Democratic state Sen. Kelly Morrison, who is the favorite to replace retiring Rep. Dean Phillips in Congress, resigned in July so that a special election could be held simultaneously with the general election. The rest of the Senate isn't up for election again until 2026, so this one race will determine who controls the upper chamber next year.

Fortunately for Democrats, Morrison's 45th District, which is based in the Minneapolis suburbs, favored Biden by a 57-41 margin. With so much at stake, though, neither party is ignoring the contest between former Democratic state Sen. Ann Johnson Stewart and Republican Kathleen Fowke, who lost to Morrison 56-44 in 2022.

3Q Fundraising

• AZ-Sen: Ruben Gallego (D): $21.7 million raised

• MI-07: Curtis Hertel (D): $2.5 million raised

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D): $2.2 million raised

• NY-19: Josh Riley (D): $2.8 million raised 

• PA-01: Ashley Ehasz (D): $1.25 million raised 

House

NC-01

Noble Predictive Insights' new poll for Inside Elections shows Democratic incumbent Don Davis outpacing Republican Laurie Buckhout 42-34 in North Carolina's 1st District, a constituency that the GOP gerrymandered to weaken the freshman congressman. This is the first survey we've seen of the race to represent inland northeastern North Carolina.

Respondents in this constituency back Kamala Harris by a tight 46-45 spread, which matches Joe Biden's 50-49 margin of victory four years ago. The Democratic nominee for governor, Josh Stein, however, outpaces Republican rival Mark Robinson 45-36 in the 1st District: The DCCC, unsurprisingly, has been airing ads tying Buckhout to her party's toxic nominee. 

Jeff Jackson, meanwhile, leads Republican Dan Bishop 39-36 here in the race to succeed Stein as attorney general, while 1st District voters favor Democrat Mo Green 40-31 over Republican Michele Morrow for superintendent of public institution.

Inside Elections' Jacob Rubashkin says that, while the survey was largely finished before Hurricane Helene caused widespread devastation in North Carolina, NPI responded by doubling the polling period from three days to six. The firm, however, acknowledged there was "no way to know if the respondents we did get—during the hurricane and in the run-up to it—are systematically different from normal likely voters in some meaningful, unmeasured way."

NY-17

Republican Rep. Mike Lawler issued a nonapology on Thursday in response to a New York Times report detailing how he'd worn blackface as a college student in 2006, a story that includes a contemporary photo of Lawler portraying Michael Jackson.

The New York congressman, who called the pop star his "musical hero," told reporter Nicholas Fandos, "The ugly practice of blackface was the furthest thing from my mind. Let me be clear, this is not that." Lawler continued, "I am a student of history and for anyone who takes offense to the photo, I am sorry. All you can do is live and learn." 

Lawler next month faces former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones, who is Black, in the Hudson Valley-based 17th District. 

TX-15

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC has publicized an internal poll showing freshman Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz with a small 48-45 advantage in her rematch against Democrat Michelle Vallejo in Texas' 15th District. This survey from GQR is the first poll anyone has released of a contest that has not attracted much outside spending from either party, though HMP's numbers show that it's interested in getting involved. 

Republicans gerrymandered this constituency in the eastern Rio Grande Valley following the most recent census, and Democratic Rep. Vicente González opted to run for in the more friendly 34th District rather than defend a seat that would have backed Donald Trump 51-48 in 2020. Vallejo, who runs her family's flea market, stepped up to defend a seat that national Democrats were pessimistic about holding going into the 2022 elections.

HMP and its allies at the DCCC ultimately bypassed the race and instead helped defend González and another Democratic congressman, Henry Cuellar. However, the two biggest GOP House outside groups, the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund, still took the 15th seriously enough to deploy $2.3 million to help De La Cruz. The Republican ultimately defeated Vallejo 53-45, while both González and Cuellar prevailed in their respective races.

So far, outside groups on both sides are directing their money to the second bout between González and former Republican Rep. Mayra Flores in the 34th District. (Flores won a 2022 special election for the previous version of the district a few months before losing to González.) There has been no such activity yet in the 15th District or in the 28th, where Cuellar continues to look strong even while under federal indictment for corruption.  

Congressional Leadership Fund

The conservative Congressional Leadership Fund announced Thursday that it was reserving an additional $3.5 million in ad time across three media markets. 

A total of $2.1 million will go to Los Angeles, where CLF is trying to flip California's open 47th District and defend Reps. Ken Calvert, Mike Garcia, and Michelle Steel. While it's not clear how CLF plans to spend on each race, there's no question that the additional $315,000 heading to Palm Springs will benefit Calvert. 

There's likewise little doubt that most, if not all, of the $1.1 million directed to Phoenix is aimed at helping GOP Rep. David Schweikert defend Arizona's 1st District.

Ballot Measures

OH Ballot

YouGov, polling for Bowling Green State University, shows Ohio voters approving an amendment to end partisan gerrymandering by a strong 60-20 margin. This survey, which shows Donald Trump carrying the Buckeye State 51-44, is the first poll we've seen of the contest to pass Issue 1.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Alameda County, CA District Attorney

Rep. Eric Swalwell on Wednesday urged voters to recall his fellow California Democrat, Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price, next month. Swalwell, an ardent Price critic who represents almost half of this populous and dark blue East Bay county, argued that the district attorney had "failed the victims of violent crime" during her almost two years in office.

Price, who was elected in 2022 as a criminal justice reformer, will need to convince a majority of voters to vote "no" this fall. If the "yes" side wins, though, it would be up to the five-member Board of Supervisors to choose a new district attorney. No matter what, there will be a 2026 election for a new four-year term in this post, which has jurisdiction over Oakland, Fremont, and other communities.

Price last cycle won a close race to replace retiring District Attorney Nancy O’Malley, a victory that also made her the first Black person to hold this office. The new district attorney's critics, though, soon began arguing that her policies were endangering public safety worse and launched an effort to remove her from office.

Price has responded by defending her record, including her policy of only sending juvenile defendants to adult prisons under "extraordinary circumstances." 

As Piper French highlighted in an August piece for Bolts and The Nation, Price told a room full of skeptical voters, "When I looked at our racial disparities for our young people in Alameda County, I could not look away." The district attorney, who herself was arrested as a teenager, pointed to her own life when she said, "I am the person who is not supposed to be here."

Price has also defended her record from detractors like Swalwell who have labeled her "soft on crime." Her side has highlighted data showing that she's filed charges in cases brought to her by law enforcement at roughly the same rate that O’Malley did. Her team has also framed the recall campaign as an attempt by Republican donors to "undermine the results of a free and fair election" and "jeopardize the historic progress achieved in recent years."

The district attorney's opponents, including Swalwell, meanwhile are continuing to focus on violent crimes to make their case that Price doesn't do enough to help victims. "What we have right now is two defense tables in every Alameda County courtroom," the congressman declared Wednesday. "There’s two defense tables, and there’s no prosecutor."

They've also highlighted how Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom announced in July that he was rescinding his plan to send extra prosecutors to help Price's office, a move he said he made because of her "lack of enthusiasm." The district attorney responded by saying Newsom was "misinformed" and that she'd "received mixed messages" about what he'd wanted to do: The governor has not taken sides in the recall campaign.

The campaign to oust Price, Supporters of Recall Pamela Price, took in $2.1 million through Sept. 21, with a large portion of that coming from venture capitalist Philip Dreyfuss. The Mercury News' Jakob Rodgers, however, notes that the group has little money left and a hefty $700,000 debt. Price's committee, though, has taken in just over $350,000 to defend her.

Voters in Oakland also will decide whether to recall Mayor Sheng Thao, another progressive who was narrowly elected in 2022. Thao's foes have likewise accused her of doing a poor job combating violent crime, and they got a new line of attack in June when the FBI raided her home as part of a local corruption investigation. Dreyfuss, Rodgers writes, is "almost exclusively bankrolling" the campaign to oust Thao, who has not been charged. 

The two East Bay recall campaigns are taking place two years after voters in neighboring San Francisco decisively recalled Chesa Boudin, whose critics portrayed him as unable to contain crime. Dreyfuss was also one of the top donors in the effort to oust Boudin. 

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Rick Scott (R-inc): 50, Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D): 44 (50-48 Trump)

• MI-Sen: Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS and Michigan News Source: Elissa Slotkin (D): 49, Mike Rogers (R): 44 (47-47 presidential tie) (June: 36-33 Slotkin)

• OH-Sen: YouGov for Bowling Green State University: Sherrod Brown (D-inc): 49, Bernie Moreno (R): 45 (51-44 Trump)

• PA-Sen: OnMessage Inc. (R) for Sentinel Action Fund (pro-Dave McCormick): Bob Casey (D-inc): 45, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (47-47 presidential tie)

• NH-Gov: Saint Anselm College: Kelly Ayotte (R): 47, Joyce Craig (D): 44 (51-44 Harris) (Sept.: 46-43 Ayotte)

• CO-08: Colorado Community Research (D): Yadira Caraveo (D-inc): 48, Gabe Evans (R): 45

• NH-01: Saint Anselm: Chris Pappas (D-inc): 50, Russell Prescott (R): 41 (49-46 Harris) (Sept.: 50-38 Pappas)

• NH-02: Saint Anselm: Maggie Goodlander (D): 50, Lily Tang Williams (R): 38 (53-42 Harris) (Sept.: 49-38 Goodlander)

Note that RMG’s Florida poll was still in progress when Hurricane Helene made landfall in the state late on Sept. 26.

Ad Roundup

• MO-Sen: Josh Hawley (R-inc) - anti-Lucas Kunce (D)

• PA-Sen: Senate Leadership Fund - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc)

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc); Restoration PAC - anti-Baldwin; Win Senate - anti-Hovde

• AK-AL: Mary Peltola (D-inc) (here, here, here, here, and here)

• CA-13: DCCC - anti-John Duarte (R-inc)

• CA-22: Rudy Salas (D) - anti-David Valadao (R-inc)

• CA-27: Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-George Whitesides (D)

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-07: CLF - anti-Curtis Hertel (D)

• MI-10: CLF - anti-Carl Marlinga (D)

• NC-01: Laurie Buckhout (R) and the NRCC - anti-Don Davis (D-inc)

• NE-02: Tony Vargas (D) (in English and Spanish)

• VA-02: CLF - anti-Missy Cotter Smasal (D)

• WI-01: Bryan Steil (R-inc) - anti-Peter Barca (D)

• WI-03: Rebecca Cooke (D) - anti-Derrick Van Orden (R-inc)

• NV Ballot: Nevadans For Reproductive Freedom - pro-abortion amendment (in Spanish)