Do you mean 65? That hasn't been a mandatory retirement age since the Supreme Court ruled it illegal age discrimination except in a few specific occupations in the 70s, and with rising expenses, especially in healthcare, fewer and fewer people can afford to retire at 65 anymore. Also, if any state would treat old age as normal, you'd expect that from Florida.
Heading to gym, errands and home for the day here soon but cursory glance on the internet found these. I'll be back on in a few hours and can look a little more if you like. I don't disagree that some people have to work into their 70s but to state the obvious that is not the same as starting a new career in your 70s with a 174k salary.
MN state auditor, Julie Blaha, isn't running for reelection next year. The article says Dems candidates could be State Rep. Dan Wolgamott, Mayor Ben Schierer, Mayor Adam Jennings and City Councilor Zack Filipovich while Repub candidates could be State Rep. Elliott Engen and 2022 nominee Ryan Wilson.
It also raises that if Walz decides not to run for reelection, Secretary of State Steve Simon and Attorney General Keith Ellison could run. With Tina Smith retiring from Senate and LG Peggy Flanagan running in that race, MN could potentially have almost all its statewide electeds change (except Klobuchar who's obvi not up this cycle), plus a new State House leader election with Melissa Hortman's assassination, ofc.
And the chatter continues to be about Amy Klobuchar wanting to be Governor. So that could theoretically change too if the rumored candidate swap with Walz happens.
That would be so crazy, I forgot she's been considering that lol. Would be nice to get her out of the running to succeed Schumer tbh, then we just have to make sure someone better than Booker gets it haha.
This is the first I'm hearing about this. How heavy or credible is the chatter?
I guess it wouldn't be a big shock. As I keep observing, no one appears to enjoy being in the senate. For Klobuchar specifically it's possible that she's concluded she has little opportunity to become president at her current age, which could incentivize her to run for governor if she wants to end her career with something executive.
It's been all over Minnesota for the last three weeks. I'm surprised it hasn't found its way to the Downballot yet. The chatter is that Klobuchar would win the statehouse and appoint Walz as her replacement.
Klobuchar would be in her 70s, but I also think she doesn't //totally// see it as giving up on a presidential and senators are increasingly seeing being a governor as a resume burnisher for a national campaign. (Young, Blackburn, Bennet; same intinct with Heinrich I think, who I was honestly surprised the deal wasn't him to go back to NM and appoint Haaland to Senate since she's more federal between the House and Interior.) Plus in the Senate, her next logical step is to try for party leader after Schumer and I think she knows that job sucks and doesn't want it (and likely isn't well liked enough by the rest of the caucus to be elected their unifying leader if it's strongly contested).
To be fair, women do have longer life expectancies than men. I work in a nursing home, and much of the time I've worked there, most of my audience was women. There are more men there for now, but they do tend to die younger, in general.
Sure thing. Of course, I get paid for this work. It's hard work in a challenging situation, playing for people whose behavior is unpredictable, but it's important work.
I think with where the party is now, that a septuagenarian non-incumbent candidate for president is going to struggle substantially for at least a generation. Correct or not, fair or not, the basic discourse over Biden is that his age was his greatest failure.
I'm not saying in any way that Klobuchar would win a nomination, I just don't think she'd switch to being a governor without thinking she could still run for president after lol
On January 6, 2021, Scott Jennings declared that Donald Trump “clearly violated his oath of office to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.” He later referred to Trump as “the Florida man… who sits with nothing much to do in his golf club except watch television.” Those statements might seem to have eliminated any chance for Jennings to get the Republican nomination for the Senate from Tennessee. However, Jennings has since recanted and now praises Trump as a champion of "Western civilization." He is even publishing a pro-Trump book in September, with a foreword by the orange monarch himself.
The U.S. economy experienced job losses in June 2025, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting a net loss of 13,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, the first such loss since late 2020. This loss of 13,000 jobs reversed the previous initial report of 14,000 additions and was largely offset by a revisions to the July report.
According to WINS News Radio, referencing the New York Times, Mayor Adams has been offered the Ambassadorship to Saudi Arabia. That would seem to give him lots of scope for corruption. I guess the Ambassadorship to Turkey was taken?
RNC moves to give early backing to former chair running in key Senate race
Key national committee members have moved to treat their top Senate candidates in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio like de facto nominees to give them a resource boost.
National party rules require the RNC to stay neutral in any primary, unless the filing deadline for the office has passed and the candidate is unopposed. But the rules do contain an exception: The RNC can “contribute money or in-kind aid to any candidate” with the blessing of all three of a state’s RNC members.
North Carolina GOP chair Jason Simmons confirmed to NBC News Thursday that he and the party’s state committeeman and committeewoman had agreed to approve the move, known as Rule 11 of the RNC bylaws.[...]
The RNC has also made similar moves in two other states to benefit a pair of incumbent senators appointed to their seats earlier this year: Ashley Moody of Florida, and Jon Husted of Ohio.
Sure but I'd like to see a similar report that the DNC does something similar with Senate candidates. DSCC we know picks candidates but I want to see an instance where the DNC did something similar to what the RNC is doing.
Trump's approval rating in our average is hovering near the low point for his term, around 41.9% approval with all adults. And he scores a 53.7% disapproval rating — making him the most unpopular president ever at this point in a president’s term. Other than the record he set in his first term, that is.
But Trump's problem is not just that his disapproval is high. He also faces a disproportionately high percentage of people who say they strongly disapprove of his presidency. Today’s Chart of the Week: Trump's record-setting disapproval rating.
[Per Economist/You Gov, as of September, 46% strongly disapprove of him as of September.]
Note that when Trump’s approvals were lower in 2017 he had not yet passed his tax bill, which brought a lot of skeptical Repubs onboard, and he wasn’t taking a flamethrower to the economy with his idiotic trade wars to this extent. He’s already passed his unpopular legislation this time around and the economy is unlikely to be in 2018’s decent shape over the ensuing 12 months so it is not immediately obvious to me how his approvals would rebound in the short or medium term
The only option I can think of is a scary one. Taking advantage of a rally around the flag effect from some disastrous event or extended military operation.
A reckless, selfish, mentally unwell and mentally unfit, narcissist is exactly the kind of person that can be imagined to try to create such a scenario to take advantage of for their own benefit.
Oh brother! It's not only that she's 88, but more so that she's repeatedly seemed to be mentally challenged in the last few years. DC deserves statehood, but at least someone should primary her so that they can have effective non-voting representation.
Because then I would take your opinion about it being unimportant for a coherent person to represent DC more seriously. If DC residents didn't care, I suppose I'd be foolish to care more than they.
I mean, I guess, but we care about/comment on all types of politicians who don't represent us directly. Taking your comment to the extreme, why do I care who is Maine's Senator. Ultimately, these people make decisions that affect all of us. Except, that is, for the DC "rep" who doesn't actually make any decisions. Hence, why I don't care...
Why is Mike Rogers the preferred GOP candidate? Didn't he lose to Slotkin, who is arguably a skilled campaigner, in a Republican favored year with Trump winning the state...
Both political parties are risk averse. A known quantity that closely lost is "safer" to them than someone whose statewide performance is unknown. It's a bit like how we'll see failed CEOs constantly get new CEO positions.
I've been wondering the same. Rogers seemed like a lackluster candidate last year and it's hard to see his pitch getting more traction next year. I'm surprised he's only 62 considering he first got into Congress a quarter-century ago and didn't seem like he was only in his 30s then.
He barely lost to Slotkin and was close to winning the seat.
But this was back in 2024. Rogers may be underestimating the current political climate, especially considering he left the House before Trump entered the presidential race.
And if Ashley Hinson loses the Senate race and IA-02 is picked up by Democrats, then what is all this coalesing behind her by the GOP establishment really all about?
Republicans are quickly falling in line behind Ashley Hinson, the Iowa representative running to replace Sen. Joni Ernst in the red-leaning state.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott on Friday endorsed Hinson, who announced her campaign earlier this week.
Having traveled Iowa with Ashley, I know she is the fighter the Hawkeye State needs to deliver President [Donald] Trump’s agenda in 2026 and beyond,” Scott (R-S.C.) said in a statement. “Iowans are all-in for Ashley Hinson, and that’s why the NRSC and I are proud to stand with my friend, a proven conservative and staunch Trump ally.”
Though Iowa is not one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats this year, the party hopes it could be in play as Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate. Avoiding a competitive GOP primary could help stave off the opportunity for a Democratic pickup.
NRSC knows it could have an expensive primary with bat shit candidates coming out of the woods so they want to avoid an expensive primary and try to convince Democrats this race isn't winnable.
I don't think Hinson will convince Democrats that the race is unwinnable. Several potentially credible candidates did declare when it looked as if they would be facing an incumbent, and Hinson's probably not THAT much better than Ernst.
What this might do is to keep some Steve King-like character who would have a much greater chance of losing from crawling out of the ooze.
Oh I agree with you on the Steve King aspect and I am convinced this race is winnable for Democrats. I just think the NRSC is also trying to hype her up as a strong candidate.
Hinson will need to convince IA voters of her candidacy. She has a certain degree of independence from her corporate anti-trust votes but being for BBB will cloud her ability to stay on message.
Right now though, because the IA-SEN race is an open race, we really don’t know as of yet which ideal Democratic Senate candidate is going to break through or if what Hinson’s candidacy may be. If this were Chuck Grassley running for re-election in 2026, it would be a much tougher nut to crack as he’s had seniority for a LONG time.
I suppose you could say Iowa is not one of the top pick-up opportunities but it's also a struggle to see how the Democrats win the Senate without it. They'd need some combination of Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. I don't think any of those three is an easier win than Iowa.
The goal is to flip the Senate. If the result is a decrease in the margin, that might not be good enough to stave off dictatorship, but if the country is not a dictatorship by 2028, it's better than nothing.
I think OH is an easier lift with Brown running. More urban state, (very marginally) higher college % (both relatively low though) and closer in the last two Prez elections. Neither will be easy, mind you, but OH is probably a tad easier than IA.
There haven't been any specials that I'm aware of, but the results in special elections nationally have been generally quite positive. As an example, the elections in FL seem somewhat relevant given the racial compositions of the states.
I could see any of those three other states being a hair easier than Iowa depending on how badly Trump tanks with Latinos and whether Peltola goes for the Senate. But all four are at roughly the same difficulty level.
Alaska would be easier than Iowa with Peltola but probably not without her. I'm extremely skeptical Texas will be easier even with Paxton versus Democratic Jesus....not after last year.
TX will be easier to mobilize the troops with Paxton as the GOP vs Cornyn but at the same time, Democrats have their work cut out for them in the state.
On the other hand, 2026 can potentially be another 2018 where Beto O’Rourke came closer to unseating Ted Cruz than analysts predicted. All depends on dynamics.
The Democratic Party hasn’t seen IA as a top pickup opportunity because they have their heads in their asses over 2024. Otherwise, IA is still very swingy and election results since 2018 show this to be the case.
That said, AK, OH and TX are different beasts all together. I look at those states separately with their own unique challenges.
Hinson has at least been elected to the House and performed fairly well given the lean of the district. She'd almost certainly be stronger than a complete MAGA loon. That said, Bruce Braley had also performed fairly well at the House level in the same district, and he sucked when he tried to go statewide.
I made a separate comment explaining Hinson’s independence, which she has a certain degree of (ex: corporate anti-trust votes). She is not exactly MAGA but she’s not traditional GOP either.
The big question is - Does Hinson have a wider appeal statewide in IA outside of being in the House? That is a big question, especially considering this political environment.
This district isn't the sort that you might suspect. It's not a suburban district - instead, it consists of Clatsop County (Democratic lean) and Tillamook County (slight Republican lean), along with a very small slice of Columbia County. According to DRA, it voted 51-46 for Harris.
In other words, this district would've been a prime candidate to flip Democratic next year regardless. Perhaps Javadi saw the writing on the wall.
I think you mean 51-46 Biden? I don't see any official 2024 Presidential data in DRA for Oregon, but they do have Biden winning the district 51-46 in 2020.
Actually I did mean Harris. DRA has 2024 data for Oregon, it's just a contributed dataset rather than an official one.
(Regarding DRA's contributed datasets: Not all of them are perfectly accurate, but in general the results for more recent elections are more accurate than the datasets for elections a while ago. A quick way to determine accuracy with fairly good certainty is by looking at the statewide vote totals from the dataset - if they match the actual statewide vote totals, then the dataset is probably pretty accurate. Many DRA-contributed datasets from the 2004 election and earlier are missing a lot of votes.)
I don't know for sure, but my hunch is that the counties back then didn't assign absentee or early votes to precincts, so the people uploading the data into DRA just didn't include those absentee and early votes.
FL-19 GOP candidates 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Look you go to Florida *to retire,* not to try to get back into the game.
I mean considering the average age of Congress starting a career there at retirement age for almost any other job seems status quo.
I was hoping we'd get away from that mindset!
Me too!
I even wrote a post about it.
https://open.substack.com/pub/cgchi1871/p/lets-talk-about-age-limits?r=318c7m&utm_medium=ios
Do you mean 65? That hasn't been a mandatory retirement age since the Supreme Court ruled it illegal age discrimination except in a few specific occupations in the 70s, and with rising expenses, especially in healthcare, fewer and fewer people can afford to retire at 65 anymore. Also, if any state would treat old age as normal, you'd expect that from Florida.
Most people retire in their 60s and outside of Congress it is difficult for anyone to start a new career in their 50s.
Do they? What are the figures on that?
https://www.guardianlife.com/retirement/average-age
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/retirement-age-in-america-62-claiming-social-security-early/
https://www.financialsamurai.com/age-people-retire-america/
Heading to gym, errands and home for the day here soon but cursory glance on the internet found these. I'll be back on in a few hours and can look a little more if you like. I don't disagree that some people have to work into their 70s but to state the obvious that is not the same as starting a new career in your 70s with a 174k salary.
MN state auditor, Julie Blaha, isn't running for reelection next year. The article says Dems candidates could be State Rep. Dan Wolgamott, Mayor Ben Schierer, Mayor Adam Jennings and City Councilor Zack Filipovich while Repub candidates could be State Rep. Elliott Engen and 2022 nominee Ryan Wilson.
It also raises that if Walz decides not to run for reelection, Secretary of State Steve Simon and Attorney General Keith Ellison could run. With Tina Smith retiring from Senate and LG Peggy Flanagan running in that race, MN could potentially have almost all its statewide electeds change (except Klobuchar who's obvi not up this cycle), plus a new State House leader election with Melissa Hortman's assassination, ofc.
https://www.axios.com/local/twin-cities/2025/09/04/minnesota-auditor-race-julie-blaha-2026
And the chatter continues to be about Amy Klobuchar wanting to be Governor. So that could theoretically change too if the rumored candidate swap with Walz happens.
That would be so crazy, I forgot she's been considering that lol. Would be nice to get her out of the running to succeed Schumer tbh, then we just have to make sure someone better than Booker gets it haha.
Swap? Klobuchar for Governor and Walz for Senate? Why?
Because Klobuchar wants to be Governor and Walz is losing confidence in his ability to win a third term. That's the rumor anyway.
Weird. Do you think he'd have trouble winning a third term but yet win a Senate seat?
The chatter is that Klobuchar would appoint Walz to fill her Senate seat if she wins the statehouse.
Walz is not scared of winning a third term but is tired of the job.
This is the first I'm hearing about this. How heavy or credible is the chatter?
I guess it wouldn't be a big shock. As I keep observing, no one appears to enjoy being in the senate. For Klobuchar specifically it's possible that she's concluded she has little opportunity to become president at her current age, which could incentivize her to run for governor if she wants to end her career with something executive.
It's been all over Minnesota for the last three weeks. I'm surprised it hasn't found its way to the Downballot yet. The chatter is that Klobuchar would win the statehouse and appoint Walz as her replacement.
Oh, I see.
Klobuchar would be in her 70s, but I also think she doesn't //totally// see it as giving up on a presidential and senators are increasingly seeing being a governor as a resume burnisher for a national campaign. (Young, Blackburn, Bennet; same intinct with Heinrich I think, who I was honestly surprised the deal wasn't him to go back to NM and appoint Haaland to Senate since she's more federal between the House and Interior.) Plus in the Senate, her next logical step is to try for party leader after Schumer and I think she knows that job sucks and doesn't want it (and likely isn't well liked enough by the rest of the caucus to be elected their unifying leader if it's strongly contested).
To be fair, women do have longer life expectancies than men. I work in a nursing home, and much of the time I've worked there, most of my audience was women. There are more men there for now, but they do tend to die younger, in general.
Thank you for doing that, Michael.
Sure thing. Of course, I get paid for this work. It's hard work in a challenging situation, playing for people whose behavior is unpredictable, but it's important work.
I think with where the party is now, that a septuagenarian non-incumbent candidate for president is going to struggle substantially for at least a generation. Correct or not, fair or not, the basic discourse over Biden is that his age was his greatest failure.
I'm not saying in any way that Klobuchar would win a nomination, I just don't think she'd switch to being a governor without thinking she could still run for president after lol
"CAWTHORNE '26 -- Unhinged, Embarrassing, but Never an Inmate."
David, Jeff, you're the hardest-working men in show business.
On January 6, 2021, Scott Jennings declared that Donald Trump “clearly violated his oath of office to preserve, protect and defend the Constitution.” He later referred to Trump as “the Florida man… who sits with nothing much to do in his golf club except watch television.” Those statements might seem to have eliminated any chance for Jennings to get the Republican nomination for the Senate from Tennessee. However, Jennings has since recanted and now praises Trump as a champion of "Western civilization." He is even publishing a pro-Trump book in September, with a foreword by the orange monarch himself.
So in other words, he learned the wisdom from JD Vance quite well.
I listened to the podcast today on the way to work and the "independent thought alarm" comment regarding Ernst made me chuckle.
Waiting for the WH spin machine to break out any moment: https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/us-jobs-report-august-2025
For the first time in nearly four years, the economy lost jobs, with a decline of 13,000 positions in June.
Did they pinpoint the month the economy last had a decline? Data I looked up in January said the last decline was in December of 2020.
That is correct.
Huh? That’s not accurate.
The economy has slowed down but there’s still a net gain of jobs added.
If you are arguing the first time in four years the economy lost jobs, then you’d be talking about the economy contracting, which it hasn’t done yet.
It is true there have been continuous layoffs for some time.
The U.S. economy experienced job losses in June 2025, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting a net loss of 13,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, the first such loss since late 2020. This loss of 13,000 jobs reversed the previous initial report of 14,000 additions and was largely offset by a revisions to the July report.
"who served both as a U.S. representative from New York and as an inmate in federal prison"
🤣🤣 at today's Easter Egg
Yes! This was my favorite chuckle from today’s down ballot! David, you never disappoint!
According to WINS News Radio, referencing the New York Times, Mayor Adams has been offered the Ambassadorship to Saudi Arabia. That would seem to give him lots of scope for corruption. I guess the Ambassadorship to Turkey was taken?
Jamal Khashoggi would have some pointed things to say about that appointment, if he were still alive.
Indeed.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/rnc-moves-give-early-backing-former-chair-running-key-senate-race-rcna229160 (Hat tip to Politicalwire, as usual):
RNC moves to give early backing to former chair running in key Senate race
Key national committee members have moved to treat their top Senate candidates in Florida, North Carolina and Ohio like de facto nominees to give them a resource boost.
National party rules require the RNC to stay neutral in any primary, unless the filing deadline for the office has passed and the candidate is unopposed. But the rules do contain an exception: The RNC can “contribute money or in-kind aid to any candidate” with the blessing of all three of a state’s RNC members.
North Carolina GOP chair Jason Simmons confirmed to NBC News Thursday that he and the party’s state committeeman and committeewoman had agreed to approve the move, known as Rule 11 of the RNC bylaws.[...]
The RNC has also made similar moves in two other states to benefit a pair of incumbent senators appointed to their seats earlier this year: Ashley Moody of Florida, and Jon Husted of Ohio.
Thanks for highlighting this. I don't want to hear anymore about how the DNC picks candidates when clearly it's the RNC doing this.
The one doesn't disprove the other.
Sure but I'd like to see a similar report that the DNC does something similar with Senate candidates. DSCC we know picks candidates but I want to see an instance where the DNC did something similar to what the RNC is doing.
I thought you said you didn't want to hear about that. :-)
Honestly, who cares one way or the other?
From G. Elliott Morris's Substack:
Trump's approval rating in our average is hovering near the low point for his term, around 41.9% approval with all adults. And he scores a 53.7% disapproval rating — making him the most unpopular president ever at this point in a president’s term. Other than the record he set in his first term, that is.
But Trump's problem is not just that his disapproval is high. He also faces a disproportionately high percentage of people who say they strongly disapprove of his presidency. Today’s Chart of the Week: Trump's record-setting disapproval rating.
[Per Economist/You Gov, as of September, 46% strongly disapprove of him as of September.]
Note that when Trump’s approvals were lower in 2017 he had not yet passed his tax bill, which brought a lot of skeptical Repubs onboard, and he wasn’t taking a flamethrower to the economy with his idiotic trade wars to this extent. He’s already passed his unpopular legislation this time around and the economy is unlikely to be in 2018’s decent shape over the ensuing 12 months so it is not immediately obvious to me how his approvals would rebound in the short or medium term
The only option I can think of is a scary one. Taking advantage of a rally around the flag effect from some disastrous event or extended military operation.
A reckless, selfish, mentally unwell and mentally unfit, narcissist is exactly the kind of person that can be imagined to try to create such a scenario to take advantage of for their own benefit.
There seems to be strong evidence that he's also physically unwell.
https://politicalwire.com/2025/09/05/eleanor-holmes-norton-insists-shes-running-again-2/
Oh brother! It's not only that she's 88, but more so that she's repeatedly seemed to be mentally challenged in the last few years. DC deserves statehood, but at least someone should primary her so that they can have effective non-voting representation.
I think she's holding on and hoping that DC gets statehood in 2029 so that she could be the first House rep from D.C. state.
She deserved to be Senator from the State of Columbia, but that's passed her by and she's being selfish now or living in denial.
Its irrelevant, she can't vote in the house
It is -not- irrelevant! She has a say in the Democratic Caucus and in the media!
Eh...not to any significant degree. I'm not sure I care much who the "rep" from DC is...
Do you live in DC?
no - why?
Because then I would take your opinion about it being unimportant for a coherent person to represent DC more seriously. If DC residents didn't care, I suppose I'd be foolish to care more than they.
I mean, I guess, but we care about/comment on all types of politicians who don't represent us directly. Taking your comment to the extreme, why do I care who is Maine's Senator. Ultimately, these people make decisions that affect all of us. Except, that is, for the DC "rep" who doesn't actually make any decisions. Hence, why I don't care...
Why is Mike Rogers the preferred GOP candidate? Didn't he lose to Slotkin, who is arguably a skilled campaigner, in a Republican favored year with Trump winning the state...
They don't have much of a base of candidates to pull from especially with John James running for governor.
Huizenga wanted to run and they pushed him out, now he's going to leave the House
Likely.
Both political parties are risk averse. A known quantity that closely lost is "safer" to them than someone whose statewide performance is unknown. It's a bit like how we'll see failed CEOs constantly get new CEO positions.
I think it's foolish but it's not a surprise.
Yes, but for whatever reason, they were convinced Huizenga would have been much more likely to lose a Senate race. Maybe someone can explain why.
I've been wondering the same. Rogers seemed like a lackluster candidate last year and it's hard to see his pitch getting more traction next year. I'm surprised he's only 62 considering he first got into Congress a quarter-century ago and didn't seem like he was only in his 30s then.
He barely lost to Slotkin and was close to winning the seat.
But this was back in 2024. Rogers may be underestimating the current political climate, especially considering he left the House before Trump entered the presidential race.
Melissa Bean comeback in 2026 was not on my bingo card. As if the IL-8 (and IL-2, and IL-7, and IL-9) primaries weren't packed already.
Yeah props to her winning a tough race in 04 but her politics probably aren’t needed/winning in a district like the current 8th.
IA-SEN:
And if Ashley Hinson loses the Senate race and IA-02 is picked up by Democrats, then what is all this coalesing behind her by the GOP establishment really all about?
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/05/ashley-hinson-endorsements-00546138
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Republicans are quickly falling in line behind Ashley Hinson, the Iowa representative running to replace Sen. Joni Ernst in the red-leaning state.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Tim Scott on Friday endorsed Hinson, who announced her campaign earlier this week.
Having traveled Iowa with Ashley, I know she is the fighter the Hawkeye State needs to deliver President [Donald] Trump’s agenda in 2026 and beyond,” Scott (R-S.C.) said in a statement. “Iowans are all-in for Ashley Hinson, and that’s why the NRSC and I are proud to stand with my friend, a proven conservative and staunch Trump ally.”
Though Iowa is not one of the top pickup opportunities for Democrats this year, the party hopes it could be in play as Democrats need to net four seats to flip the Senate. Avoiding a competitive GOP primary could help stave off the opportunity for a Democratic pickup.
NRSC knows it could have an expensive primary with bat shit candidates coming out of the woods so they want to avoid an expensive primary and try to convince Democrats this race isn't winnable.
Hinson voted for the same shit Ernst did. Hell, tie her to Ernst and force her to defend the votes for the Big Bad Bill.
No doubt that's the Democrats' plan.
Hinson is Ernst without the impressive combat experience. Hinson was a newscaster...and comes across every bit as empty as that job title implies.
Its a state the voted Trump by 13, we'll need more than voting for the ugly bill
Not if there's a big enough wave or a bad enough economy.
I don't think Hinson will convince Democrats that the race is unwinnable. Several potentially credible candidates did declare when it looked as if they would be facing an incumbent, and Hinson's probably not THAT much better than Ernst.
What this might do is to keep some Steve King-like character who would have a much greater chance of losing from crawling out of the ooze.
Oh I agree with you on the Steve King aspect and I am convinced this race is winnable for Democrats. I just think the NRSC is also trying to hype her up as a strong candidate.
They'd be falling down on the job if they didn't hype her.
Hinson will need to convince IA voters of her candidacy. She has a certain degree of independence from her corporate anti-trust votes but being for BBB will cloud her ability to stay on message.
Right now though, because the IA-SEN race is an open race, we really don’t know as of yet which ideal Democratic Senate candidate is going to break through or if what Hinson’s candidacy may be. If this were Chuck Grassley running for re-election in 2026, it would be a much tougher nut to crack as he’s had seniority for a LONG time.
I suppose you could say Iowa is not one of the top pick-up opportunities but it's also a struggle to see how the Democrats win the Senate without it. They'd need some combination of Alaska, Ohio, and Texas. I don't think any of those three is an easier win than Iowa.
Yea our goal is to cut into the margin, winning back the senate with the state's available is a long shot.
The goal is to flip the Senate. If the result is a decrease in the margin, that might not be good enough to stave off dictatorship, but if the country is not a dictatorship by 2028, it's better than nothing.
I think OH is an easier lift with Brown running. More urban state, (very marginally) higher college % (both relatively low though) and closer in the last two Prez elections. Neither will be easy, mind you, but OH is probably a tad easier than IA.
The thing is, special elections have shown a huge swing towards the Democrats in Iowa. Has there been an equivalent swing in Ohio?
There haven't been any specials that I'm aware of, but the results in special elections nationally have been generally quite positive. As an example, the elections in FL seem somewhat relevant given the racial compositions of the states.
I could see any of those three other states being a hair easier than Iowa depending on how badly Trump tanks with Latinos and whether Peltola goes for the Senate. But all four are at roughly the same difficulty level.
Fair assessment. I would not look at most of the Senate races as easy to win by any stretch of the imagination.
Alaska would be easier than Iowa with Peltola but probably not without her. I'm extremely skeptical Texas will be easier even with Paxton versus Democratic Jesus....not after last year.
TX will be easier to mobilize the troops with Paxton as the GOP vs Cornyn but at the same time, Democrats have their work cut out for them in the state.
On the other hand, 2026 can potentially be another 2018 where Beto O’Rourke came closer to unseating Ted Cruz than analysts predicted. All depends on dynamics.
The Democratic Party hasn’t seen IA as a top pickup opportunity because they have their heads in their asses over 2024. Otherwise, IA is still very swingy and election results since 2018 show this to be the case.
That said, AK, OH and TX are different beasts all together. I look at those states separately with their own unique challenges.
Hinson has at least been elected to the House and performed fairly well given the lean of the district. She'd almost certainly be stronger than a complete MAGA loon. That said, Bruce Braley had also performed fairly well at the House level in the same district, and he sucked when he tried to go statewide.
I made a separate comment explaining Hinson’s independence, which she has a certain degree of (ex: corporate anti-trust votes). She is not exactly MAGA but she’s not traditional GOP either.
The big question is - Does Hinson have a wider appeal statewide in IA outside of being in the House? That is a big question, especially considering this political environment.
Party flip (R to D) in Oregon state House: https://www.opb.org/article/2025/09/05/oregon-state-representative-cyrus-javadi-switches-parties-now-democrat/
House District 32. The party switcher, Cyrus Javadi, won 52-48 in 2024, and 51-49 in 2022.
Smart man
This district isn't the sort that you might suspect. It's not a suburban district - instead, it consists of Clatsop County (Democratic lean) and Tillamook County (slight Republican lean), along with a very small slice of Columbia County. According to DRA, it voted 51-46 for Harris.
In other words, this district would've been a prime candidate to flip Democratic next year regardless. Perhaps Javadi saw the writing on the wall.
He's been voting against the GOP party line for quite some time now.
I think you mean 51-46 Biden? I don't see any official 2024 Presidential data in DRA for Oregon, but they do have Biden winning the district 51-46 in 2020.
Actually I did mean Harris. DRA has 2024 data for Oregon, it's just a contributed dataset rather than an official one.
(Regarding DRA's contributed datasets: Not all of them are perfectly accurate, but in general the results for more recent elections are more accurate than the datasets for elections a while ago. A quick way to determine accuracy with fairly good certainty is by looking at the statewide vote totals from the dataset - if they match the actual statewide vote totals, then the dataset is probably pretty accurate. Many DRA-contributed datasets from the 2004 election and earlier are missing a lot of votes.)
Why are the earlier ones missing many votes?
I don't know for sure, but my hunch is that the counties back then didn't assign absentee or early votes to precincts, so the people uploading the data into DRA just didn't include those absentee and early votes.
Thank you Cyrus Javadi for your service.