$4.5 million is going to the Asheville NC/Spartanburgh-Greenville SC media market, which is NC 11th District. The Dems have a great “dirt-road Democrat” candidate in Jamie Ager, fourth generation farmer and “proud son of Western N.C.” This was Matt Cawthorn’s seat until he imploded and lost in a primary to the incumbent Chuck Edwards, who won the 2024 general 57-43.
This area got hammered by the Hurricane Helene in September 2024 and then royally shafted by Trump’s FEMA, which has been notoriously slow to release recovery funds. While this is a gerrymandered district it turned less Trumpish in 2024. Edward’s is a boring milk-toast conservative now stuck with defending Trump’s economy and FEMA malfeasance under Christy Noem, who froze FEMA spending and insisted on personally approving any expenditures over 50K.
Could be a near-perfect storm for the Dems. If you’re a small donor like me I encourage you to check out Ager. He has a great shot to win this race.
Ager is also the grandson of Jamie Clarke, a Democrat that represented the district in the 1980s. Also, his name is Madison Cawthorn, and he's running again in Florida.
Yes, I knew Madison was running and saw when I did a search this morning he got arrested right around the time he announced. Couldn’t bother to show up for a court date for a ticket for driving without a license. I can’t imagine he’ll win the primary but I hope he does. Talk about baggage. The Henderson Co. Dems have a video of Ager’s speech to their county convention—he is a good old boy in the best sense of the term.
I think quite a few NC Rs will lose their gerrymandered seats like Edwards (as well as state legislators).
If GOP pollsters couldn't calculate the losses of those two FL legislative seats in R-favorable districts in Palm Beach and Tampa, then the same thing could happen all over the country.
For sure— Asheville gives Ds a base and Ager is trying to flip Henderson and Transylvania—the city of Hendersonville I believe turned slightly D in 2024
pretty similar geographic look wise to the district heath shuler flipped for us back in 2006, with the caveat there were more demosaurs in the district at the time
I would almost laugh if we won it in '26 and the GOP redrew the maps again to make the district more Republican. There's a non-zero chance NC has a different map every election this decade.
I love it too—can’t remember where I first read it. It conveys to me a non-elistist, non-fancy person who at first glance who might figure for a Trumper but you find out they’re too real-world and down-to-earth to fall for his gold-plated BS.
not nationally that i'm aware of, but the state party is raising money for davis, Curiously, I usually donate ten or so dollars a week to Davis, and his actblue link is not working today
CT House yesterday passed a bill expanding mail-in voting and limits on law enforcement at the polls by a party-line vote of 101-49. It goes to the state Senate for a full vote before going to the governor's desk.
If enacted, it would repeal the excuse-only option and allow all eligible CT voters to vote by mail. Due to a threat of a GOP filibuster, the permanent absentee mail list amendment was struck in favor of ballot applications mailed automatically to voters.
Hailing from Memphis, Hardaway was in touch with his community, and a close progressive ally of Justin Pearson, now running for Congress. Pearson wrote a heartfelt obituary in response to the news.
The admin is slow and ineffective, case in point being the Washington Bridge debacle of 2023, where he narrowly averted the bridge's collapse by closing it and creating a traffic nightmare.
mckee is arguably our worst democratic governor in the nation, bad on unions compared to the rest of his new england brethen not named mills, and we should not forget that former governor raimundo also struggled with primary challenges because both her and mckee seem to have it out for public employees, just my opinion, not from rhode island but often pass through on my way from jersey to maine to see family
VA-6: Progressive Del. Sam Rasoul won't run here, setting up a highly anticipated primary between former Rep. Tom Perriello and author Beth Macy. Periello is now the consensus progressive, while Macy leans more establishment.
tom perriello is one of the most genuine "seeming" politicians I've ever met. He doesn't drift with the wind, and although I was an out of stater just attending an event for him in 2017 with friends he still took the time to look me in the eye and remember my name.
Her book about the Virginia furniture industry, Factory Man, was quite interesting. It showed how the industrial collapse that was part of the rise of Trumpism was as much because the capitalists were perfectly happy to simple take their payouts and let their industries fall, rather than make the necessary investments to keep them competitive. (Anti dumping duties get paid to the affected industries rather than the government.)
Alaska Republicans going through it this morning after a poll showed Peltola up 7 after RCV in the Senate races and Begich (the Democrat) up 8 after RCV in the gubernatorial race. It’d be something if after all the talk at the beginning of the cycle if Democrats end up with a majority of governorships after 2026.
The Democrat running for governor is ex-state Sen. Tom Begich, who is the son of the late Democratic Rep. Nick Begich (lost in a plane in 1972), brother of ex-US Sen. Mark Begich, and uncle of current GOP Rep. Nick Begich.
Just in case the family tree needed clarifying....
Also, the article is wrong at one point. It says Bishop moved to 4th place in place of Claman. Kriess-Tomkins was actually in 4th in the last poll, not Claman.
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is about to have a rough week as Speaker, with a fractured majority set to vote on 3 high profile bills. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
PA-3: State Rep. Chris Rabb gains an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This signals broad progressive support, and could encourage other groups and figures to boost Rabb.
What is it about Florida's 19th Congressional District that has made it a magnet for failed politicians from other states - Madison Cawthorn from North Carolina, Chris Collins from New York, Jim Oberweis from Illinois, Catalina Lauf from Illinois? Since Scott Brown (the former Senator from Massachusetts) appears destined to lose the Republican nomination for Senate from New Hampshire, maybe he, too, should move to Florida's 19th.
WATN, MO-02, Obituaries: Ray Hartmann, a longtime Donnybrook panelist, 2024 MO-02 Democratic candidate, and founder of Riverfront Times (RFT) and St. Louis Magazine, dies at the age of 73 in a car crash on I-64 just west of I-270 in Missouri.
I analysed that new HMP ad buy today, and it is quite clear you can see the demographics that they are targetting nationally:
Whites: ~50.90%
African America: ~24.34%
Hispanic/Latino: ~21.51%
Asian: ~4.80%
I will release the file for this later, I am just cleaning a few other information pieces out, I expect to get it out at 16:00 BST.
Minor correction: her name is Karishma Manzur, not Manzu.
On other things in the digest:
-Not great numbers for Ed Markey as someone in public office for 57 years.
-Surprised Gregg Hull performs so well in New Mexico given his limited name recognition and fundraising
$4.5 million is going to the Asheville NC/Spartanburgh-Greenville SC media market, which is NC 11th District. The Dems have a great “dirt-road Democrat” candidate in Jamie Ager, fourth generation farmer and “proud son of Western N.C.” This was Matt Cawthorn’s seat until he imploded and lost in a primary to the incumbent Chuck Edwards, who won the 2024 general 57-43.
This area got hammered by the Hurricane Helene in September 2024 and then royally shafted by Trump’s FEMA, which has been notoriously slow to release recovery funds. While this is a gerrymandered district it turned less Trumpish in 2024. Edward’s is a boring milk-toast conservative now stuck with defending Trump’s economy and FEMA malfeasance under Christy Noem, who froze FEMA spending and insisted on personally approving any expenditures over 50K.
Could be a near-perfect storm for the Dems. If you’re a small donor like me I encourage you to check out Ager. He has a great shot to win this race.
Ager is also the grandson of Jamie Clarke, a Democrat that represented the district in the 1980s. Also, his name is Madison Cawthorn, and he's running again in Florida.
Yes, I knew Madison was running and saw when I did a search this morning he got arrested right around the time he announced. Couldn’t bother to show up for a court date for a ticket for driving without a license. I can’t imagine he’ll win the primary but I hope he does. Talk about baggage. The Henderson Co. Dems have a video of Ager’s speech to their county convention—he is a good old boy in the best sense of the term.
I think quite a few NC Rs will lose their gerrymandered seats like Edwards (as well as state legislators).
If GOP pollsters couldn't calculate the losses of those two FL legislative seats in R-favorable districts in Palm Beach and Tampa, then the same thing could happen all over the country.
I'm pretty bullish on Greg Murphy, too.
This seat is probably least gerrymandered one in any sense.
Some early incarnations had Asheville proper carved out of it. That was some true sh*t.
For sure— Asheville gives Ds a base and Ager is trying to flip Henderson and Transylvania—the city of Hendersonville I believe turned slightly D in 2024
pretty similar geographic look wise to the district heath shuler flipped for us back in 2006, with the caveat there were more demosaurs in the district at the time
I would almost laugh if we won it in '26 and the GOP redrew the maps again to make the district more Republican. There's a non-zero chance NC has a different map every election this decade.
Not for nothing but I love the phrase “dirt road Democrat”
I love it too—can’t remember where I first read it. It conveys to me a non-elistist, non-fancy person who at first glance who might figure for a Trumper but you find out they’re too real-world and down-to-earth to fall for his gold-plated BS.
The word is actually milquetoast, after a character of that name in a 1924 cartoon:
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/milquetoast
Thank you Marcus—I am an older guy loves to learn something new everyday, although I might have known that at some point earlier in life
Is there anything going to nc-01?
not nationally that i'm aware of, but the state party is raising money for davis, Curiously, I usually donate ten or so dollars a week to Davis, and his actblue link is not working today
There are some buys listed in the press release https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-announces-272-million-in-2026-tv-and-digital-reservations
for Raleigh and then smaller buys in Greenville and New Bern—not sure if this are for NC-01 but thinking they may—
CT House yesterday passed a bill expanding mail-in voting and limits on law enforcement at the polls by a party-line vote of 101-49. It goes to the state Senate for a full vote before going to the governor's desk.
https://archive.ph/VizYS
https://ctmirror.org/2026/04/23/on-second-try-absentee-voting-bill-glides-to-passage-in-ct-house/
If enacted, it would repeal the excuse-only option and allow all eligible CT voters to vote by mail. Due to a threat of a GOP filibuster, the permanent absentee mail list amendment was struck in favor of ballot applications mailed automatically to voters.
https://www.actionnews5.com/2026/04/24/beloved-advocate-state-rep-ga-hardaway-dies-age-71/
Tennessee state Rep. G.A. Hardaway is dead at 71.
Hailing from Memphis, Hardaway was in touch with his community, and a close progressive ally of Justin Pearson, now running for Congress. Pearson wrote a heartfelt obituary in response to the news.
That RI-Gov number is really brutal. That's like dead kid in the trunk numbers. Any idea why McKee is so unpopular?
The admin is slow and ineffective, case in point being the Washington Bridge debacle of 2023, where he narrowly averted the bridge's collapse by closing it and creating a traffic nightmare.
mckee is arguably our worst democratic governor in the nation, bad on unions compared to the rest of his new england brethen not named mills, and we should not forget that former governor raimundo also struggled with primary challenges because both her and mckee seem to have it out for public employees, just my opinion, not from rhode island but often pass through on my way from jersey to maine to see family
https://wfirnews.com/news/local-government-and-civic-affairs/roanoke-democratic-delegate-sam-rasoul-will-not-run-for-congress-this-year
VA-6: Progressive Del. Sam Rasoul won't run here, setting up a highly anticipated primary between former Rep. Tom Perriello and author Beth Macy. Periello is now the consensus progressive, while Macy leans more establishment.
tom perriello is one of the most genuine "seeming" politicians I've ever met. He doesn't drift with the wind, and although I was an out of stater just attending an event for him in 2017 with friends he still took the time to look me in the eye and remember my name.
I hope he wins. Macy seems nice standalone but she's too connected with the Virginia establishment (I think both Kaine and Warner endorsed her).
Her book about the Virginia furniture industry, Factory Man, was quite interesting. It showed how the industrial collapse that was part of the rise of Trumpism was as much because the capitalists were perfectly happy to simple take their payouts and let their industries fall, rather than make the necessary investments to keep them competitive. (Anti dumping duties get paid to the affected industries rather than the government.)
Alaska Republicans going through it this morning after a poll showed Peltola up 7 after RCV in the Senate races and Begich (the Democrat) up 8 after RCV in the gubernatorial race. It’d be something if after all the talk at the beginning of the cycle if Democrats end up with a majority of governorships after 2026.
https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/04/23/left-leaning-pollster-shows-democrat-leading-alaska-gubernatorial-race-thanks-to-rcv/
The Democrat running for governor is ex-state Sen. Tom Begich, who is the son of the late Democratic Rep. Nick Begich (lost in a plane in 1972), brother of ex-US Sen. Mark Begich, and uncle of current GOP Rep. Nick Begich.
Just in case the family tree needed clarifying....
Former state Rep. Jonathan Kriess-Tomkins and state Sen. Matt Claman are running too.
This article clearly has a bias against Begich and Peltola, however. Sheesh.
Yea, the meltdown is pretty funny.
Yeah, they're Republican leaning. Very slanted language, just as bad as that hacky BizPac website.
Also, the article is wrong at one point. It says Bishop moved to 4th place in place of Claman. Kriess-Tomkins was actually in 4th in the last poll, not Claman.
The title and story are flatly wrong in saying that Begich leads "thanks to RCV." The poll shows he wins flat out by six points without ant RCV.
https://www.axios.com/2026/04/24/mike-johnson-republicans-fisa-farm-bill-dhs
Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is about to have a rough week as Speaker, with a fractured majority set to vote on 3 high profile bills. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
He's the worst Speaker our country ever had. Awful man.
https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/aoc-endorses-chris-rabb-congress-20260424.html
PA-3: State Rep. Chris Rabb gains an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This signals broad progressive support, and could encourage other groups and figures to boost Rabb.
Is PA-03 the bluest congressional seat in the country? It’s one of the PA seats iirc.
It is.
What is it about Florida's 19th Congressional District that has made it a magnet for failed politicians from other states - Madison Cawthorn from North Carolina, Chris Collins from New York, Jim Oberweis from Illinois, Catalina Lauf from Illinois? Since Scott Brown (the former Senator from Massachusetts) appears destined to lose the Republican nomination for Senate from New Hampshire, maybe he, too, should move to Florida's 19th.
The oldest CD in the county, ig, ie. As the destination of well-to-do retirees, hence it collects so many used-to-be’s.
It’s basically a magnet for old Republicans in terms of who lives there so sort of checks out
WATN, MO-02, Obituaries: Ray Hartmann, a longtime Donnybrook panelist, 2024 MO-02 Democratic candidate, and founder of Riverfront Times (RFT) and St. Louis Magazine, dies at the age of 73 in a car crash on I-64 just west of I-270 in Missouri.
https://www.stlmag.com/news/ray-hartmann-founder-of-rft-and-st-louis-magazine-killed-in-car-crash/