133 Comments
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Noah's avatar

I analysed that new HMP ad buy today, and it is quite clear you can see the demographics that they are targetting nationally:

Whites: ~50.90%

African America: ~24.34%

Hispanic/Latino: ~21.51%

Asian: ~4.80%

I will release the file for this later, I am just cleaning a few other information pieces out, I expect to get it out at 16:00 BST.

JazElections's avatar

Minor correction: her name is Karishma Manzur, not Manzu.

On other things in the digest:

-Not great numbers for Ed Markey as someone in public office for 57 years.

-Surprised Gregg Hull performs so well in New Mexico given his limited name recognition and fundraising

bpfish's avatar

The numbers for Ed Markey are probably low specifically because of his 57 years in office, not in spite of.

Brian Jordan's avatar

$4.5 million is going to the Asheville NC/Spartanburgh-Greenville SC media market, which is NC 11th District. The Dems have a great “dirt-road Democrat” candidate in Jamie Ager, fourth generation farmer and “proud son of Western N.C.” This was Matt Cawthorn’s seat until he imploded and lost in a primary to the incumbent Chuck Edwards, who won the 2024 general 57-43.

This area got hammered by the Hurricane Helene in September 2024 and then royally shafted by Trump’s FEMA, which has been notoriously slow to release recovery funds. While this is a gerrymandered district it turned less Trumpish in 2024. Edward’s is a boring milk-toast conservative now stuck with defending Trump’s economy and FEMA malfeasance under Christy Noem, who froze FEMA spending and insisted on personally approving any expenditures over 50K.

Could be a near-perfect storm for the Dems. If you’re a small donor like me I encourage you to check out Ager. He has a great shot to win this race.

JazElections's avatar

Ager is also the grandson of Jamie Clarke, a Democrat that represented the district in the 1980s. Also, his name is Madison Cawthorn, and he's running again in Florida.

Brian Jordan's avatar

Yes, I knew Madison was running and saw when I did a search this morning he got arrested right around the time he announced. Couldn’t bother to show up for a court date for a ticket for driving without a license. I can’t imagine he’ll win the primary but I hope he does. Talk about baggage. The Henderson Co. Dems have a video of Ager’s speech to their county convention—he is a good old boy in the best sense of the term.

MPC's avatar

I think quite a few NC Rs will lose their gerrymandered seats like Edwards (as well as state legislators).

If GOP pollsters couldn't calculate the losses of those two FL legislative seats in R-favorable districts in Palm Beach and Tampa, then the same thing could happen all over the country.

JazElections's avatar

I'm pretty bullish on Greg Murphy, too.

Cheryl Johnson's avatar

⬆️"If GOP pollsters couldn't calculate the losses of those two FL legislative seats in R-favorable districts in Palm Beach and Tampa...'

Weren't those special elections? I don't think you can extrapolate from a special election to a midterm general election.

axlee's avatar

This seat is probably least gerrymandered one in any sense.

Some early incarnations had Asheville proper carved out of it. That was some true sh*t.

Brian Jordan's avatar

For sure— Asheville gives Ds a base and Ager is trying to flip Henderson and Transylvania—the city of Hendersonville I believe turned slightly D in 2024

Hudson Democrat's avatar

pretty similar geographic look wise to the district heath shuler flipped for us back in 2006, with the caveat there were more demosaurs in the district at the time

Mr. Rochester's avatar

I would almost laugh if we won it in '26 and the GOP redrew the maps again to make the district more Republican. There's a non-zero chance NC has a different map every election this decade.

Henrik's avatar

Not for nothing but I love the phrase “dirt road Democrat”

Brian Jordan's avatar

I love it too—can’t remember where I first read it. It conveys to me a non-elistist, non-fancy person who at first glance who might figure for a Trumper but you find out they’re too real-world and down-to-earth to fall for his gold-plated BS.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

The phrase was coined by Jessica Piper, a former Missouri state legislative candidate who now writes The View from Rural Missouri newsletter on Substack, or at least Piper was the first person I knew of using the term "dirt road Democrat".

Marcus Graly's avatar

The word is actually milquetoast, after a character of that name in a 1924 cartoon:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/milquetoast

Brian Jordan's avatar

Thank you Marcus—I am an older guy loves to learn something new everyday, although I might have known that at some point earlier in life

Franco Caliz-Aguilar's avatar

Is there anything going to nc-01?

Hudson Democrat's avatar

not nationally that i'm aware of, but the state party is raising money for davis, Curiously, I usually donate ten or so dollars a week to Davis, and his actblue link is not working today

Brian Jordan's avatar

There are some buys listed in the press release https://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/hmp-announces-272-million-in-2026-tv-and-digital-reservations

for Raleigh and then smaller buys in Greenville and New Bern—not sure if this are for NC-01 but thinking they may—

Guy Cohen's avatar

They are for NC-01 for sure. There aren't any other competitive seats in those markets.

MPC's avatar

CT House yesterday passed a bill expanding mail-in voting and limits on law enforcement at the polls by a party-line vote of 101-49. It goes to the state Senate for a full vote before going to the governor's desk.

https://archive.ph/VizYS

https://ctmirror.org/2026/04/23/on-second-try-absentee-voting-bill-glides-to-passage-in-ct-house/

If enacted, it would repeal the excuse-only option and allow all eligible CT voters to vote by mail. Due to a threat of a GOP filibuster, the permanent absentee mail list amendment was struck in favor of ballot applications mailed automatically to voters.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.actionnews5.com/2026/04/24/beloved-advocate-state-rep-ga-hardaway-dies-age-71/

Tennessee state Rep. G.A. Hardaway is dead at 71.

Hailing from Memphis, Hardaway was in touch with his community, and a close progressive ally of Justin Pearson, now running for Congress. Pearson wrote a heartfelt obituary in response to the news.

Johnny Neumonic1's avatar

That RI-Gov number is really brutal. That's like dead kid in the trunk numbers. Any idea why McKee is so unpopular?

JazElections's avatar

The admin is slow and ineffective, case in point being the Washington Bridge debacle of 2023, where he narrowly averted the bridge's collapse by closing it and creating a traffic nightmare.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

mckee is arguably our worst democratic governor in the nation, bad on unions compared to the rest of his new england brethen not named mills, and we should not forget that former governor raimundo also struggled with primary challenges because both her and mckee seem to have it out for public employees, just my opinion, not from rhode island but often pass through on my way from jersey to maine to see family

D S's avatar
Apr 25Edited

My understanding is that Rhode Island is not terribly kind to it's governors, and McKee is nothing special. I also expect Sabina Matos, the lieutenant governor who managed to come 4th in a special election primary in 2023, to lose if people coalesce around one of her opponents.

JazElections's avatar

https://wfirnews.com/news/local-government-and-civic-affairs/roanoke-democratic-delegate-sam-rasoul-will-not-run-for-congress-this-year

VA-6: Progressive Del. Sam Rasoul won't run here, setting up a highly anticipated primary between former Rep. Tom Perriello and author Beth Macy. Periello is now the consensus progressive, while Macy leans more establishment.

Hudson Democrat's avatar

tom perriello is one of the most genuine "seeming" politicians I've ever met. He doesn't drift with the wind, and although I was an out of stater just attending an event for him in 2017 with friends he still took the time to look me in the eye and remember my name.

JazElections's avatar

I hope he wins. Macy seems nice standalone but she's too connected with the Virginia establishment (I think both Kaine and Warner endorsed her).

Marcus Graly's avatar

Her book about the Virginia furniture industry, Factory Man, was quite interesting. It showed how the industrial collapse that was part of the rise of Trumpism was as much because the capitalists were perfectly happy to simply take their payouts and let their industries fail, rather than make the necessary investments to keep them competitive. (Anti dumping duties get paid to the affected industries rather than the government.)

Bryce Moyer's avatar

Added to birthday wishlist

Henrik's avatar

I supported Ralph Northam in 2017 and thought besides the dumb blackface GOP hitjob he was a productive governor but Tom would have made a great governor, too. I hope he wins

JazElections's avatar

Crazy to think Northam became more popular after the whole blackface thing. Can't say the same for his lieutenant...

anonymouse's avatar

Alaska Republicans going through it this morning after a poll showed Peltola up 7 after RCV in the Senate races and Begich (the Democrat) up 8 after RCV in the gubernatorial race. It’d be something if after all the talk at the beginning of the cycle if Democrats end up with a majority of governorships after 2026.

https://alaskawatchman.com/2026/04/23/left-leaning-pollster-shows-democrat-leading-alaska-gubernatorial-race-thanks-to-rcv/

Mike in MD's avatar

The Democrat running for governor is ex-state Sen. Tom Begich, who is the son of the late Democratic Rep. Nick Begich (lost in a plane in 1972), brother of ex-US Sen. Mark Begich, and uncle of current GOP Rep. Nick Begich.

Just in case the family tree needed clarifying....

JazElections's avatar

Former state Rep. Jonathan Kriess-Tomkins and state Sen. Matt Claman are running too.

JazElections's avatar

This article clearly has a bias against Begich and Peltola, however. Sheesh.

anonymouse's avatar

Yea, the meltdown is pretty funny.

MPC's avatar

Yeah, they're Republican leaning. Very slanted language, just as bad as that hacky BizPac website.

JazElections's avatar

Also, the article is wrong at one point. It says Bishop moved to 4th place in place of Claman. Kriess-Tomkins was actually in 4th in the last poll, not Claman.

benamery21's avatar

"Four union officials are helping to lead a newly formed political group that will boost the candidacy of Republican Click Bishop, a former state senator from Fairbanks with a long background in the labor movement.

The group will have a six-figure budget to spend on Bishop and running mate Greta Schuerch as campaigning gears up for the mid-August primary, according to Joelle Hall, president of the Alaska AFL-CIO."

https://alaskabeacon.com/2026/04/24/an-alaska-gop-governor-candidate-is-getting-a-boost-from-organized-labor/

hilltopper's avatar

The title and story are flatly wrong in saying that Begich leads "thanks to RCV." The poll shows he wins flat out by six points without ant RCV.

anonymouse's avatar

Yep, the cope in the article is something else LOL

JazElections's avatar

https://www.axios.com/2026/04/24/mike-johnson-republicans-fisa-farm-bill-dhs

Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) is about to have a rough week as Speaker, with a fractured majority set to vote on 3 high profile bills. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

MPC's avatar

He's the worst Speaker our country ever had. Awful man.

Zack from the SFV's avatar

Kevin McCarthy is already forgotten?

MPC's avatar

McCarthy at least kept the GOP caucus from letting discharge petitions go to a full House vote. But he's a close second to Johnson.

Mark's avatar

I'd take 10 years of McCarthy's buffoonery over 10 weeks of Johnson's soulless monstrosity. I wouldn't have figured it possible to find a worse human being than Newt Gingrich as Speaker of the House but the GOP caucus and northwestern Louisiana have somehow managed.

axlee's avatar

Kevin who? Lol

JanusIanitos's avatar

McCarthy is a moron, republican hack, and grossly incompetent.

Johnson is utterly shameless and willing to throw his party's fortunes under the bus in order to appease their president.

I'd rather McCarthy. Not that McCarthy was any good but he was at least marginally better.

sacman701's avatar

Johnson makes McCarthy look like Sam Rayburn.

JazElections's avatar

Dennis Hastert is a sexual abuser. He kind of goes under the radar these days.

Miguel Parreno's avatar

Man, John Boehner really is the best modern GOP House Speaker isn't he?

JazElections's avatar

Him and Paul Ryan do the heavy lifting. And Ryan is annoying as it is.

Miguel Parreno's avatar

I almost forgot about Paul Ryan. Yeesh. Meanwhile (generally) unproblematic giants on the Dem side in O'Neill and Pelosi.

JazElections's avatar

O'Neill's successors, Jim Wright and Tom Foley, were not as unproblematic. Wright resigned in disgrace and Foley lost because he opposed term limits, of all things.

MPC's avatar

I totally forgot about him, but he definitely co-shares that "honor" with Speaker No Spine Johnson.

JazElections's avatar

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/philadelphia/aoc-endorses-chris-rabb-congress-20260424.html

PA-3: State Rep. Chris Rabb gains an endorsement from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. This signals broad progressive support, and could encourage other groups and figures to boost Rabb.

Jay's avatar

Is PA-03 the bluest congressional seat in the country? It’s one of the PA seats iirc.

JazElections's avatar

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think its PVI might be tied or very close with CA-12.

JanusIanitos's avatar

PA-03 is D+40 (Harris 88-11), CA-12 is D+39 (Harris 85-11).

If DC became a state then DC-AL would be D+44, even more blue than either.

Diogenes's avatar

What is it about Florida's 19th Congressional District that has made it a magnet for failed politicians from other states - Madison Cawthorn from North Carolina, Chris Collins from New York, Jim Oberweis from Illinois, Catalina Lauf from Illinois? Since Scott Brown (the former Senator from Massachusetts) appears destined to lose the Republican nomination for Senate from New Hampshire, maybe he, too, should move to Florida's 19th.

axlee's avatar

The oldest CD in the country, ig, ie. As the destination of well-to-do retirees, hence it collects so many used-to-be’s.

Henrik's avatar

It’s basically a magnet for old Republicans in terms of who lives there so sort of checks out

JazElections's avatar

Don't forget Ola Hawatmeh from New York.

Brian Jordan's avatar

Strange factoid: Chris Collins graduated from Hendersonville High School in Hendersonville, NC, where Cawthorn is from. Collins got inducted into the HHS hall of fame for moving to NY and being a successful businessman. HHS alumni refused to throw Collins out after he was charged and convicted of insider trading.

Justin Gibson's avatar

WATN, MO-02, Obituaries: Ray Hartmann, a longtime Donnybrook panelist, 2024 MO-02 Democratic candidate, and founder of Riverfront Times (RFT) and St. Louis Magazine, dies at the age of 73 in a car crash on I-64 just west of I-270 in Missouri.

https://www.stlmag.com/news/ray-hartmann-founder-of-rft-and-st-louis-magazine-killed-in-car-crash/

Colby's avatar

RIP to a good liberal and a good Democrat willing to fight even if victory was not guaranteed. Sad to hear, MO Dems worth a damn are hard to come by.

alienalias's avatar

Looking at raw FEC disbursements from Republican congressional caucus PACs and seem to see this primary spending:

-Republican Study Committee: Chris McGowan (IA-04)

-Republican Main Street Caucus: Aaron Flint (MT-01), Madison Sheahan (OH-09)

-Congressional Hispanic Conference: Blake Miguez (LA-05), Carlos De La Cruz (TX-35)

alienalias's avatar

Also, No Labels is spending for Ed Gallrein, Trump's puppet candidate trying to primary Tom Massie...........

https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/fecimg/?202603209853661031

Zero Cool's avatar

No Labels is really not being No Labels anymore.

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

Ruben Gallego inplicated in a partying on an official trip to Columbia scandal:

https://www.instagram.com/p/DXeNR-xm0Li/?igsh=ZDgxMXZlYXN5ZTBs

If Gallego resigns from the Senate, Arizona has a Democratic governor who would appoint a replacement Senator (Republicans control the state legislature, but they don't have enough votes to override a veto to remove the governor's U.S. Senate vacancy appointment power), although the timing of a Gallego resignation would probably preclude any of the three AZ Dems in the U.S. House or a Democratic statewide elected official from being appointed.

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Apr 24
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Henrik's avatar

Considering the country in question, if it really was just drinking late at night that’s really not that bad by “partying” standards

Ivan Yunis's avatar

Fun fact, drugs in Colombia suck because all the good stuff goes to the US, Japan, and Europe, which pay way more than even wealthy Colombians would. I've heard that the best market is the DC area, actually, so yeah

Politics and Economiks's avatar

Even if it did involve illegal drugs, if this was on his own personal time.... well, he won't even make the top 50 list of the Eyes Wide Shut society that is Capitol Hill. There is a reason they got rid of Madison Cawthorn... he spoke just a little too openly about it.

And given the daily conduct of this administration and their lackeys, absolutely not, he should not resign.

Avedee Eikew's avatar

The only thing that bothers me about this is the hypocrisy if that is the case. Most drug laws should go with an addendum that any harm to others or significant harm to property comes with mandatory rehab as part of the sentence.

axlee's avatar

Resign on this?!

alienalias's avatar

Staying up late drinking...

Techno00's avatar

This is the stupidest scandal I've ever heard of. Are we this desperate for clicks?

(Not aimed at you Aaron by the way, my complaint is aimed at NOTUS for seriously considering this worth reporting on.)

Colby's avatar

Yeah this is a nothingburger compared to Trump himself, Cory Mills, the list goes on and on…no shade to you Aaron for bringing this up of course. Gallego is one of our best Senators and leaders, he should not even pretend to care given the magnitude of MAGA offenses that are ignored and celebrated

Aaron Apollo Camp's avatar

It's a nothingburger compared to some scandals within our own party as well, such as the Eric Swalwell rape allegations (although, as Swalwell is no longer an elected official or active political candidate, that's now more a legal issue than an electoral one).

Zero Cool's avatar

Coincidentally, this comes after Gallego was accused by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of sexual harassment for being with Eric Swalwell in the same bedroom as the woman Swalwell was trying to take advantage of.

michaelflutist's avatar

I wouldn't believe anything Luna said if my life depended on it.

Colby's avatar

More like Loon-a :)

Zero Cool's avatar

Would prefer if she were defeated for re-election.

FL-13 going from Charlie Crist to Anna Paulina Luna is a *face palm*

Ivan Yunis's avatar

It's Colombia, tho. I read partying and Columbia and actually thought he was at an SEC game.

Zero Cool's avatar

And as a son of an MBA father who graduated from Columbia before the beginning of the 1970’s, it’s pretty obvious Columbia is FAR different than Colombia. ;)

On the other hand, a colleague of mine who worked for my marketing association in the Bay Area was a graduate of SFSU back in the day and originally from Colombia. She’s now a graduate of Wharton’s Executive MBA and in the entrepreneur finance space.

michaelflutist's avatar

My mother got her PhD in anthropology at Columbia in 1979. Best anthropology department in the country then, but only the graduate school had been made co-educational at the time, recently, and she dealt with a fair amount of sexism and some antisemitism there.

michaelflutist's avatar

He's not going to resign over this. OK, so, he took a risk. And nothing happened to him.

Henrik's avatar

Worth keeping an eye on. The White House’s revenge tour in Indiana is apparently not taking off yet. But well know for sure on Cinco de Mayo

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/23/indiana-redistricting-revenge-trump-00890079

MPC's avatar

Be nice if Indiana Rs lost their legislative supermajority due to Trump's revenge tour.