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ArcticStones's avatar

Papal Conclave set for 7 May.

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Marcus Graly's avatar

The conclave has approximately one elector per 10,000,000 constituents. Congress, for comparison, has one per 780,000.

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Kildere53's avatar

If Congress had one Representative for 10,000,000 constituents, there would be only 33 members of Congress.

Now the question is, would Democrats have a majority? WA, AK, and HI combined have just about the right population, and that would be a Dem seat. Dems would have 4 seats from California. The CO/NM seat would probably be swingy, depending on what else is in it. Chicago would have a deep blue seat. MI, GA, and NC would each be a swing seat. MA/VT/NH/ME would be a Dem seat, NYC would have two Dem seats, Philly would have a Dem seat, and Baltimore/DC as well. Maybe a couple of swingy seats elsewhere, like MN/WI (or South Florida, if Dems ever recover there)?

I'll have to do a more thorough analysis if I ever have time.

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Andrew's avatar

MN-WI would be cute but is almost 12m people. Makes sense to cut off agricultural Western/Southern MN and give it to the Dakotas/Great Plains district, which would equal out MN/WI to a Lean D seat that probably has the most shoreline of any district.

From googling, looks like AK beats MN for total shoreline when it comes lakes and oceans, but if you throw in rivers, then MN is the top state. I’m not a whatever profession who determines that but shoreline to me says we next to water and enjoying the benefits. If I wasn’t so sore from doing yard work, I would have went for a walk downtown Mpls which is built around the Mississippi’s only waterfall. It’s nothing grand and not natural anymore but it is like damn, that hydropower did all this.

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Kildere53's avatar

I didn't think of that! You're right, keeping Wisconsin whole and adding in the Twin Cities metro area makes more sense than trying to keep Minnesota whole, which creates a very awkward split of Wisconsin.

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Jacob M.'s avatar

An interesting website I stumbled across that I haven't seen mentioned here (if it has my bad): https://collegeofcardinalsreport.com/

You can look at bios of all the cardinals or just those who might be the next Pope. The bios even talk about those who might be progressive or conservative or more likely to carry on the legacy of Francis. You can also view where the cardinals stand on certain issues like ordaining female deacons, blessing same-sex couples, making priestly celibacy optional, focusing on climate change, etc. You can also see which cardinals will be voting versus non-voting.

Not Catholic myself, but it was just interesting, almost like doing candidate research.

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Paleo's avatar

Erdo is the one to avoid. Zuppi and Tagle would be best.

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Henrik's avatar

Still think it’ll be Parolin but we’ll see - could def see Zuppi getting it

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rayspace's avatar

Amazing to me as a Catholic that the U.S. media has spent so much time relaying the feelings of conservatives about the conclave/next Pope. The amount of attention Catholic conservatives can get for themselves here is astounding. They're a very annoying rump group who is great at PR.

There's no way a conservative (Erdo, Burke, etc.) becomes Pope. If 90 of the 108 Cardinals Francis appointed stick together, they can elect whomever they want, and it won't be a right-winger. My guesses are Parolin or Tagle.

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Henrik's avatar

Yeah, it really misunderstands the global Church. Erdo might have a chance - Burke has virtually none.

If the Cardinalate want to split the difference they could go with Besungu, whose closer to the Franciscan line than most African prelates

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Henrik's avatar

What a remarkably thorough website!

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

The "Conclave" book was really good. Somebody summarized it as "Mean Girls, but for Cardinals" and that's...not wrong!

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ArcticStones's avatar

Like with Billy the Bard’s "Hamlet", I only saw the movie.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

I haven't seen a movie in the theatre since "Django Unchained." I am a very weird mammal.

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ArcticStones's avatar

You have been to the cinema more recently than I have!

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Henrik's avatar

I only saw the movie and it was def like that. Heard it’s very faithful plot wise though. I was impressed throughout - and it had a truly WTAF ending that genuinely caught me by surprise

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James Trout's avatar

Election Day has arrived north of the border!

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PollJunkie's avatar

When will we know the results exactly?

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James Trout's avatar

It depends on the individual province. British Columbia and Yukon do not close their polls until 11 PM Eastern Standard Time. Thankfully the Canadian Election process is closer to our process than the British Election process so it is quicker to count the votes. We should have a sense of where we are at between 9 and 10 Eastern time.

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Paleo's avatar

Canada has six time zones, but poll closing times are staggered so that most of them shut at 9:30 p.m. Eastern time regardless of where they are. The Westernmost province British Columbia closes half an hour later, at 10 p.m. Eastern time.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Worth noting: more than one-quarter of eligible Canadian voters have already cast an Early ballot.

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Diogenes's avatar

The attack at a Filipino festival in Vancouver that left at least 11 dead might complicate things. Mark Carney was flying to Vancouver to show his support. It was obviously not his fault, but it happened on his watch and could damage the aura of stability he projects.

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Paleo's avatar

Don't think so. The attacker, of Chinese descent, had a history of mental disturbance and the police have ruled out terrorism as a motive.

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Diogenes's avatar

That is a rational response, but that is not the way elections work. The attack is not likely to swing the election, but it might well cause a dip in support for the Liberals.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

It’s also equally possible Trump saying again that Canada should be the 51st state on election day in Canada might cause a dip in support for the Conservatives.

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EJ Fagan's avatar

IL-Sen: Duckworth to endorse Stratton.

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

As of right now, Stratton has my endorsement too. She's solid, great backstory, watched her announcement ad and her past interviews. If Pritzker wants to run for President in 2028, the best thing would be to retire in 2026 and focus on 2028. Otherwise he'll need a brand new running mate.

New whispers among Team Trump is disgraced former Gov. Rod Blagojevich who is now a REPUBLICAN after finally party switching in 2024 is eyeing the Senate race in 2026. Hope he loses by 20 points or more if he's the Republican nominee!! 💙🇺🇲

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Brad Warren's avatar

I mean, if Pritzker wants to run for a third term, he'll have absolutely no problem finding a new running mate.

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Andrew's avatar

The backstory is pretty standard and bland per me reading her wiki page. I’m surprised Duckworth is endorsing so quickly considering she’s a Senator. Makes me think you all are onto something.

It’s kind of an embarrassment of riches of candidate. Stratton is solid based all of this. Underwood gets huge respect for being a millennial and going for it in a tough district and winning. Krishnamoorthi I’ve always had respect for bc he ran against Duckworth when it was hers to win. I liked him having the guts to go for it anyway and I don’t recall this site ever painting the race as negative. He took his lickings and then ran again for another seat and won. Kelly seems generic af but wow, three powerful black women running. In any other state, she would stand out bc she is great, too. I just prefer Underwood bc girl, get that promotion and sit there for 6-7 terms and become one of the most powerful women in the country.

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Zero Cool's avatar

In fairness to Gerry Connolly, his health matters are more important than having to risk running re-election with them at the same time.

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Tigercourse's avatar

It's not like AOC lost that vote narrowly. She lost by a wide margin. Do we really think that Pelosi, who is no longer the minority leader, has so much power that she can shift dozens of congress people to switch their vote? Maybe just a lot of congress critters thought he would do a better job than her?

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JanusIanitos's avatar

Not sure, but I'd guess that a gentle push from someone you owe favors to will have more impact on a committee assignment vote. Something where there is no real chance of voters back home caring as it's way too in the weeds. It's an easy way to stay in that person's good graces while giving something of relative little value compared to the alternatives.

Good chance he'd have won anyway. Pelosi cares about seniority, but so do a ton of dems in congress too. But I wouldn't say it's guaranteed he'd have won. Even if he lost I think it would have been narrowly.

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Andrew's avatar

Yes, I do think Pelosi has that power. A high up there political friend was just telling me how involved she tried to be in the DNC chair vote. The Wikler side, who she supported, sounded kind of crappy. Threats and promises galore. The winner, Ken Martin, said he did none of those things when talking to DNC voters and he just talked about his record.

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Bryce Moyer's avatar

Alright, now can the retirement wave start. We’ve had basically a whole cycle of senate retirements without anyone moving in the House who isn’t running for something.

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Henrik's avatar

The bench here is excellent. Connolly has served the people of NoVA well and honorably and with his fragile health certainly deserves (and warrants) retirement

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

I wouldn't be shocked if Jennifer Carroll Foy is our nominee here.

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John Jones's avatar

WHile I am not a member of the VA GOP, their actions are wrong. He should be allowed to run.

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Andrew's avatar

Oh absolutely. We looooooove when the GOP runs crazy candidates who have the Gov calling them to say don’t. It’s sad that GOP has gotten to have such crap candidates. They’ve always had this problem but it’s just more and more and more.

Been awhile since I’ve heard of a shitty Dem candidate for a competitive seat that’s already DOA. We run good people.

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Diogenes's avatar

Since Andy Barr and Daniel Cameron are both running for the Senate from Kentucky by attacking the incumbent, their fellow Republican Mitch McConnell, it will be interesting to see whether Scott Jennings' close association with McConnell will be an asset or a liability if Jennings decides to run.

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DHfromKY's avatar

I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the idea that anyone would seriously want Scott Jennings (pfft!) to run for anything. As for the race itself, right now, I'm hoping it will be Pam Stevenson against Daniel Cameron ... just because ...

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Colin Artinger's avatar

I'm still hopeful Rocky Adkins would run. No Democrat would have anything resembling a decent chance, but Rocky v. Cameron would at least be interesting in the environment stays as bad as it is for the GOP. He's probably the only Democrat other than Beshear capable of winning a statewide race in Kentucky. I think he prefers to try to succeed Beshear, though.

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DHfromKY's avatar

I'd be OK with Rocky, either as Senator or as Governor. I'd rather have Lt. Gov. Coleman (no relation to AG Coleman, AFAIK) as Gov, but I'd be OK with Rocky. If he enters the Senate primary, I think he could win, and I don't know how I would vote in a contested primary.

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Colin Artinger's avatar

I don't think Jacqueline Coleman has any realistic chance, though, even given Beshear's popularity. Andy only won because of a lot of goodwill with his father AND getting to run against the dumpster fire that was Matt Bevin. Won re-election because he kicked ass as governor. LTG Coleman just doesn't have the same level of residual goodwill from conservative Kentucky voters. Adkins, OTOH, has a long career as a state legislator and ran miles ahead of the other Democrats in eastern Kentucky for years after it turned. If there is any statewide race that could be competitive in Kentucky these days it may be Cameron v. Rocky. Race would almost certainly play a role, but I think Rocky would have a lot of crossover appeal. Again, no Democrat (other than Beshear) would have good odds in Kentucky, though.

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michaelflutist's avatar

It's clear that a Democrat could win the gubernatorial race again, but I definitely can't see the possibility of one winning the U.S. Senate seat.

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Paleo's avatar

I think Adkins could beat Cameron under the right circumstances

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DHfromKY's avatar

Elections for Governor being not only off-cycle, but isolated from Federal and legislative elections, does have an effect.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

Does Gov. Beshear have any progeny?

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James Trout's avatar

Two children. One son, Will. One daughter, Lila. Both are minors.

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DHfromKY's avatar

You may be right. So far, electing the Gov and Lt. Gov as a ticket has nulled being -- or even being a candidate for -- Lt Gov as a steppingstone to being a contender for Gov. Candidates for Lt Gov don't need to have their own political ambitions or "brands" in order to be picked as part of the ticket. No one who has run for Lt Gov as part of a ticket has run for Gov, and all I know for sure about Lt Gov Coleman running is that she hasn't said that she's not interested.

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Henrik's avatar

Why would Jennings give up his cushy job as the party’s designated CNN mouthpiece who gets zero pushback from fellow panelists to run for anything?

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Brad Warren's avatar

Inflated sense of his own brilliance fueled by said lack of pushback?

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DHfromKY's avatar

Works for me.

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JanusIanitos's avatar

One full senate term gets him a senate pension, then he could retire and get an even cushier job.

The earning potential as an active member of congress might not be great compared to political TV job, relative to the work required for each. But the earning potential improves a lot once they become a former member of congress.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Heck, for all we know he's on his way out the door at CNN.

(Why does CNN always have the WORST panelists? The "discussions"—which are mostly just people talking past each other and reciting canned talking points—are damn near unwatchable!)

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PollJunkie's avatar

Trump will end his hopes in a jiffy when his advisors tell him that Jennings works for Mitch.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Shri Thanedar's opponent has been endorsed by a multitude of state legislators from across the left wing spectrum.

https://x.com/umichvoter/status/1916881596096958540

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Paleo's avatar

Good.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm not seeing anything at that link. I guess it was deleted?

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Paleo's avatar

I’m seeing it.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I'm seeing it now. I guess the MTA's Wi-Fi was spotty.

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Paleo's avatar

And Thanedar responds with the “magic bullet.”

https://bsky.app/profile/krassenstein.bsky.social/post/3lnvgc5jzas2g

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michaelflutist's avatar

If a Representative introduces articles of impeachment, does the Judiciary Committee have to have hearings?

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Paleo's avatar

No.

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PollJunkie's avatar

Tbh, his english seems to be terrible. How did he even win those primaries?

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Kevin H.'s avatar

What's the issue with leftists and Thanedar? Is it the hair? The not being black? He seems to vote fine.

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Paleo's avatar

AIPAC and crypto.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Sure but is there the same eneregy for the other supporters of those groups.

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Nathaniel Smith-Tyge's avatar

Well frankly a majority black city should have at least one of its two MCs be black. And Shri is just weird. Hopefully it’s a 1vs1 primary, otherwise a multi-candidate primary greatly favors Shri.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Yep, he won his first primary with 28.3% of the vote. Detroit's other member won hers with 31.2%. And of course, it's unfair to single them out; there are many others (Dan Goldman got 25.8%!).

This is why I really think ranked choice is important.

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Andrew's avatar

He’s a millionaire who bought a black district. He doesn’t belong there.

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Kevin H.'s avatar

Talk to the people who vote for him.

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Andrew's avatar

It’s easy to buy votes, especially with incumbency. Throwing millions of dollars against black candidates in a black district is annoying.

Rep. Cohen is white and represents Memphis due to a split primary in his first election. He’s not rich and continues to win bc the black community did try to organize and beat him but they picked crappy candidates. He kept winning and they gave up bc he had the political goodwill from being a local politician previously. Thanedar doesn’t have that. He never earned that seat. He bought it.

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PollJunkie's avatar

https://x.com/TimRyan/status/1916235107406348680

Interesting comparision of county level maps.

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Nathaniel Smith-Tyge's avatar

If land voted I would be super worried

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PollJunkie's avatar

Is this Jrdeaux scandal, a slam dunk one like in the case of Mark Robinson of NC because as far as I see there are other profiles on YouTube and Spotify with the same username...?

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Stargate77's avatar

I don't think this will damage John Reid to the same degree as Mark Robinson was damaged by his scandal, if only because Robinson's scandal is a very high bar. Reid continues to claim to that the pictures were not posted by him. He claims that someone else created that account, presumably for the purpose of copying a username that he has used on other websites, so that the pictures would appear to come from Reid. If there is a lot of hostility to Reid from anti-gay Republicans, then this is actually plausible in my view.

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Stargate77's avatar

This post at Blue Virginia has an update:

https://bluevirginia.us/2025/04/video-trumps-former-va-campaign-chair-says-youngkin-is-going-to-ostracize-reid-from-the-ticket-which-means-that-reid-is-going-to-get-blown-out-and-cant-raise-money

It's possible that Youngkin's people think Republicans are going to get beaten badly this November, and they don't want the public to see it as a referendum on Youngkin. That's why Youngkin (and presumably also Trump) want to make Reid a scapegoat for if that happens.

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dragonfire5004's avatar

Imo it’s beyond obvious he’s been angling for a Senate run with this miraculous shift to not being a total douchebag MAGA mouthpiece and suddenly caring about basic human decency (which he never did once in 4 years).

Whether it’s a 2026 run with the Trump anchor against Warner or a 2030 run against Kaine (or an open seat, maybe he thinks he retires, he’ll be 72) is up in the air. I really hope the MAGA in moderate clothing Republicans don’t fool Americans anymore, because there’s a long list of them that need to never be heard from again.

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Brad Warren's avatar

Youngkin is a legend in his own mind.

I stil think TMac would have eked out a win in 2021 had it not been for the Covid resurgence.

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Henrik's avatar

That combined with a very ill-advised debate answer about school boards and parents at the height of backlash about school closures

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Brad Warren's avatar

Right, which was especially damaging due to the Covid resurgence.

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Andrew's avatar

Abso-fucking-lutely. Covid has played a huge role in modern American politics. As it should, it was an unforgettable time in all our lives. Democrats wanted to be normal and smart about dealing with a global pandemic, the GOP wanted to play politics bc that’s how they win elections.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/04/28/congress/grassley-blue-slips-ny-judges-00313271

A little surprising, but Chuck Grassley is honoring blue slips for the U.S Attorney's offices in the Southern and Eastern Districts of New York (I honestly thought he would not). (For those wondering which New York Senator did not return the blue slip-it was Schumer).

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Brad Warren's avatar

Grassley is awful in many ways but he's still (somewhat of) an institutionalist.

Whoever succeeds him will likely be far worse.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

If Grassley was the institutionalist you are claiming he is, he would not be chairing a Committee in the Senate.

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Zero Cool's avatar

Chairing a committee is one thing. However, Grassley got elected to the Senate the same year that Reagan was first elected as POTUS, 1980. Being an institutionalist fits him considering how many decades he's been in Congress.

That said, Grassley also bankrolled the Iraq War from the beginning and did not provide one iota of accountability until after the 2006 midterms (like many of the wimpy Republicans). Quite honestly, he doesn't have a spine unless it's about Iowa and its energy.

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Harrison Konigstein's avatar

Neither did most of the Democrats (in fact, Joe Biden never did).

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Zero Cool's avatar

But we're talking about Grassley, who provided ZERO accountability whereas many Democrats (except Joe Lieberman) did after the Iraq War happened. This includes Joe Biden and John Kerry well before the 2006 midterms.

Point being is that Grassley along with Lindsay Graham and others blindly supported the Iraq War and gave Bush & Cheney a blank check. Absent of the 2002 Iraq War Resolution, after the Iraq War started, the Democratic Party in the Senate, namely at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, were very critical of Bush’s handling of the Iraq War from the beginning. The GOP by contrast only got critical of Bush after the 2006 midterms.

Anyway, Biden and Kerry are no longer in the Senate. Grassley is. I can’t understand why I’m recent Senate elections both Democratic Senate Candidates have not attacked Grassley over his Iraq War record/

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

Why is Iowa so conservative/Republican if clean energy is so big there?! 😲

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Zero Cool's avatar

Market based solutions are what conservatives are in favor of.

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James Trout's avatar

For those of you who want to follow the election in Canada live: https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6731931

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Brad Warren's avatar

Thanks for the links! I'm enjoying catching up on the politics of our 51st state (I kid, I kid!).

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Andrew's avatar

The 51st state talk is where I truly think the people around him are thinking if we let him have his shiny object, he’ll leave us alone. We’re busy fucking shit up and he could get in the way.

And, he really is that stupid to not realize they’re all doing it and how actually disastrous for the GOP having Canada join the US would be. Only adding 2 Senate seats would be bullshit but electoral votes and House votes would hurt biggly. Popular vote would look worse but it doesn’t matter. Sigh.

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ArcticStones's avatar

Is there a website that show the *actual live count*, and estimate of percentage counted, in each riding? So far, it’s talking heads and an indication of which party is "leading", but nothing about actual vote count.

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Henrik's avatar

CBC has a results map

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ArcticStones's avatar

Found it. And following the DB discussion on Discourse.

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Burt Kloner's avatar

Libs up 21-11 in early seat count

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James Trout's avatar

The CBC projected at 10:15 PM Eastern Daylight Time that the Liberal Party will win the election. Mark Carney remains Prime Minister!

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michaelflutist's avatar

North Carolina vote-suppression law gets permanent injunction from a Federal court and the state of North Carolina agrees to it: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXCaXCVySoY

The law would have annulled the registration and vote of voters who register and vote at the same time if a piece of test mail came back as undeliverable, with no notice or opportunity to cure the problem. On Democracy Docket, which I linked above, a figure of 23% of mail that comes back as undeliverable being due to USPS error was cited.

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