With regards to fundraising and funding, I have a simple question: Would Trump have attacked Iran, if that war had to be fully funded – and paid for by billionaires and large corporations?
Another question: does Hal Rogers or Kevin Smith (whoever wins that GOP primary in Kentucky) have to sweat a serious Democratic challenger in November’s General Election?
Thanks for quantifying. Ok, I get it: a Democratic could run against an overfilled adult diaper, and they would still lose – provided the diaper had an (R) next to its name.
Though the eastern part of the district still elects some democrats down ballot. Floyd County elects a Democrat to the state house, and a number of the eastern counties voted for Governor Beshear in 2023.
That's true for part of the district. Much of it is what used to be the Seventh District, which Carl Perkins and his son Chris held from 1948 until 1992, when it was lost to reapportionment. (Chris was caught up in the 1992 House banking scandal, which is one reason he didn't try to run in the new district.)
Right. Very much a district divided during the era of coal unions. Neighboring Leslie and Knott counties routinely went 80-20 in the opposite direction.
There is a Democratic challenger, Ned Pillersdorf, and he is serious about running against "King Hal". Whether the R nominee would have to sweat his candidacy is another question, and the answer is "not very likely".
Please keep in mind that KY is a closed primary state, and that anyone who changed their party registration now would be ineligible to vote in either party's primary, so there won't be any crossover voting.
im rooting for hal rogers, i dont agree with nearly anything he says but he voted for appropriation bills under obama and at least understands that if you're going to represent one of the poorest districts in the country you need to bring home some bacon
They would have if this was 1986. Probably not since then. I don't think even Bill Clinton won this seat. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I'm guessing Dan Mongiardo probably beat Bunning here in 2004 though.
I mean, I'm not hugely fond of either Mills or Platner - I feel like Democrats could certainly do significantly better here - but I'd still vote for either of them in a heartbeat against Collins.
would vote for either as well, but hoping for everyone's sake janet rolls out some policy ideas. sara gideon's whole bit was I'm not susan collins and susan collins enables trump. we need to present a vison other than being not trump.
platner, for his many issues, does offer an alternative vision to the madness afflicting the country
At this point, I'll take either. We just need to beat Collins. We can sort out getting a "better Democrat" later. I'm generally of the mind that Mills is the stronger GE candidate and she would certainly be my choice, but I suspect either one of them would be a (modest) favorite in this environment.
Who won’t rip up the one thing that would prevent a Democratic trifecta from passing most of our agenda. So to be clear, I don’t like either candidate, but there isn’t really an alternative for Democrats if their goal is to pass good legislation, not just stop bad legislation. If I have to pick between stymied for 2-4 years, watch a Republican wave eliminate our majority, putting MAGA back in power or a Nazi tattoo, horrible social media posts, may turn into a Fetterman, but also supportive of eliminating the barriers to actually legislate, yeah, I know who I’m picking.
I’m still not willing to actually support him since a red line for me was crossed, but he’s going to be our nominee and he’s going to dog walk Collins who the entire campaign makes ads about Platner’s Reddit posts and tattoo which results in Maine voters going “so what?” By the end of it because they know and don’t care. While he attacks her mercilessly and promotes his positive agenda for voters. Wonder how that will work out?
See: Exhibit A Trump, when Democrats put a rightful amount of attacks against a right to point out how extreme and horrible of a human being he is at scale to show just how bad he is, which ended up actually making all of our attacks complete noise to voters and nothing ever stuck to him since he first introduced himself to Americans. I’ve seen this movie before and I already know what happens at the end.
Though to be fair, IOKIYAR was coined for a reason. We'll see whether voters indeed don't care about problems with Democrats. Those did matter in Virginia, but they still elected Jay Jones by a significant margin.
I think his 'bad' case is likely closer to Jim Webb, where he doesn't cast a lot of problematic votes but gets frustrated with how things work and leaves after one term. His 'good' case is that he takes advice (maybe from Angus King, Bernie Sanders, and Ruben Gallego?) and grows into the role.
Great songwriter also. He wrote some of the best songs of the sixties for artists ranging from Glen Campbell to the Fifth Dimension. Also "MacArthur Park"... (s/ not really the same guy).
Platner seems genuinely opposed to republicans. If he's elected and becomes problematic it would presumably be a different route than Fetterman. Maybe in the vein of being a democratic version of Rand Paul. I don't see it as super likely but it is of course possible.
Plus, Fetterman's problem is almost certainly the downstream impacts of his stroke rather than him being secretly very republican sympathetic the whole time.
If Plantner were to get elected he's going to have do so after being accused of condoning sexual assault, having Nazi sympathies, not sure what other scandals are out there. He isn't going to go there and be a problem, IMO. Otherwise, he will get slapped down by his colleagues. He should just keep his head down and follow Angus King. King won't give him a hard time if Plantner is serious about serving the people of their state.
Well, if being a Democratic version of Rand Paul means he's also against the Iran War and plenty of wars we don't need, then we can count on him and Paul for votes against war.
What correlation are you drawing between Fetterman and Platner? That they're both a little rough around the edges? Have a working-class image?
I think part of Fetterman's problem, aside from his stroke (or perhaps because of it), is that he believes he is acting from a position of moral superiority and "rising above" the political conflict. That arrogance empowers him to trash on his own party and vote with the opposition, which could be a useful strategy if he were actually asking for anything in return, which he is not. Platner seems more likely to criticize his party from the left and demand that it be more effective, rather than to move all the way to the other end and vote with the opposition.
Angus King thought he was extra clever and could serve in the Senate without a caucus, but then he learned how the Senate works and chose a caucus. If Platner wants to be a rabble-rouser, hopefully King can help him figure out how to also be effective so he can be more like AOC than Fetterman.
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Fetterman's Dad able to subsidize his lifestyle while he Mayor and doing all of that non-profit work? I think John may have done some underwriting work for him, but that is about it. My point being that if your Dad owns an insurance company, you may have a superiority complex. Fetterman may have rhetorically gone over to the other side on some big issues of the day, but I will take him over any member of the GOP in the U.S. Senate. I wonder if he is just tired because of his health and just considers it easier to stop fighting on some issues.
I think this is going to be very controversial but I don't think it's that complex – Fetterman suffered a serious stroke which deteriorated his brain and helped him get depressed, negatively polarized and radicalized against progressives at first, and then Democrats as a whole, by the October 7 massacre and the murder of Laken Riley by an illegal immigrant.
Also, he became really close to his Fox News watching Republican family who have his ear now (basically everyone except his left leaning wife) according to one reporter.
2020 polling was awful. Quinnipiac had Gideon up 54-42, a miss of over 20 points on margin. Even NYT/Siena had Gideon up 49-44. In the end Collins won 51-42.
There's also John Sununu the elder. At this point, I'm sure NH Republicans are used to voting for the Sununu name without really worrying about any distinctions between them.
Probably going to be unpopular, but I’ve been consistently worried that NH was going to be one of the closest states for Democrats in Senate 2026 races because low info voters will see the name Sununu and think they’re voting for their 4 term Governor, who they like, to become a Senator. Republicans were very shrewd to get another Sununu to run. It wouldn’t at all shock me if the Republican wins NH while at the same time Democrats sweep the other tougher red state seats either.
Luckily Pappas is a fairly well known commodity, so I think he’ll still win, but anything less than like a D+5-6 year and I’d be nervous about this seat due to the unique dynamics of this race regardless of what’s happening elsewhere on the ballot.
This is the easierst changes for sites to make in a pro blue wave environment. D incumbents to safe.
Then leans to likely.
Then (if ever) you will start seeing them shifting red seats from safe to likely, likely to lean.
They hardly ever predict the wave first, that is risky. No one wants egg on their face. The last stage will be moving D seats out of tossup/tilt to at least lean D and R seats into tossup/til R from lean R. That is as far as they will go.
They all have different approaches, and they've been consistent across election cycles. Cook basically never moves an incumbent beyond toss-up and will leave a bunch of races in the Toss-Up category through Election Day. Sabato, Gonzales, and RRH will eliminate all toss-ups a couple days before Election Day to officially make a prediction in all races.
Gonzales also loves to move things in and out of his precious little "Tilt" categories (Lead D to Tilt D, for example) all throughout the cycle. I think it's just to generate clicks.
Lol at "precious little Tilt categories". I remember checking how they performed after one election. The general "tossup", "lean", and "likely" categories had good correlations with the results. Even if there was a skew one way or another, and one party won most the tossups, overperformed in other categories, etc., you could see the utility of the ratings. That was not the case for the tilts. Democrats did just as good or bad in the tilt Dem seats as they did in the tilt GOP seats. No added value.
In a lower tweet reply, Kondik is asked about OH07, OH10 + OH15. He says they’re still Safe R in his mind, but he’s a little “intrigued” by those races.
Would say Poindexter and Knickerbocker are good underdogs to be rooting for, but I doubt Adam Miller or Don Leonard could give Carey a run for his money. OH-7 I feel is the embodiment of a Rust Belt seat that has slowly moved away from Democrats over time, and needs the right working class figure to save it.
The NewDem Action Fund has endorsed Cait Conley (NY-17), Denise Powell (NE-02), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), Elaine Luria (VA-02) and Shannon Bird (CO-08). Their endorsement of Powell sets up another head-to-head with the CPC, which has endorsed Sen. John Cavanaugh though their PAC.
Luria is obviously a great get. The Nebraska's race is Cavanaugh's to lose. Rutinel makes for a more convincing/charismatic candidate in CO-08; Bird has bucked the party on more than a few occasions in the Legislature. Their endorsement of Conley is mind-boggling -- not voting in a midterm since 2007 reeks of laziness and unreliability!
He's 84 and is in good shape physically, headlining the Fight Oligarchy rallies, constantly appearing at events, and fulfilling his duties as a Senator. Not sure what this has to do with his age, though.
Also, he has announced he will likely retire when he is up for re-election next in 2030. There's no calls for him to step away - he will do it willingly.
Bernie has endorsed Abdul El Sayed in the Michigan Democratic Senate Race. Dr Sayed has pledged to support Medicare for All if he wins. I have received multiple fund raising letters from the McMorrow Campaign in recent weeks including on by Senator Chris Murphy endorsing her. I am putting my small dollar donations towards Dr Sayed for the primary, one reason is he is so experienced in public health and we will need his expertise after the debockal of The Big Ugly Bill. Also IAPAC came out with hit ads against him equating him with being a terrorist! I am so sick and tired of Israel running ads against Progressive Candidates! I don't want Bibi running our politics and foreign policy!
1. There were many calls for him to endorse Balint and not run in 2024.
2. It's materially worse for an old House member to cling onto their seat bc of how long specials take compared to a Senate appointment.
3. Yes, Scott is a Republican, and even if he said he would appoint a Dem there's nothing to stop him from lying and any Dem he choose won't be as left as Sanders. Which is why he should have endorsed Balint in 2024.
On (3), what are the odds of dems/progressives getting back to a veto-override threshold in Vermont's legislature this cycle? It would be great if they at least put in place some kind of same-party appointment requirement. I guess that's a bit awkward in Sanders' case, but there are ways to make it work.
While I would have preferred Bernie retire in 2024 purely for actuarial reasons, he hasn’t shown any signs of age issues compared to others his age, so I’ll (lightly) defend him on that front with the leading caveat
I would gently push back on the the "hasn't shown any signs of age issues", because he did have a heart attack in 2020. By all accounts he's fully recovered, of course, but it's still something.
It's difficult to compare Vindman and Peltola. Peltola has led in every recent poll. Vindman has never led in a poll. In fact, the one Florida poll that polled both Vindman and Nixon against Moody found a negligible difference; Vindman was behind by 1% less than Nixon, but the 1% fell on Moody's side, not the democratic side, showing it possibly is a rounding difference. Alaskan media is undoubtedly much less expensive than Florida, so the cash advantage is less pronounced. And Peltola has won statewide in Alaska twice. Vindman has never run for office. I like them both. But Peltola has a much better chance and any financial disadvantage is much less likely to affect the race.
I don't think they're saying that Peltola and Vindman are similar or have an equal chance of winning, just that they're both high profile candidates about to finish their first fundraising quarters.
They’re not really saying both are in the same category of flippability. They’re just categorizing both states as double digit Trump ones, which is a fact. Do I think they could’ve probably added a bit of language to differentiate the two or separate the races into different paragraphs? Sure, but this is really nitpicking because the stat they used to justify grouping the 2 races together is correct.
I don’t know if Mast is beatable, but the rest sound good to me (if they actually do put resources here, caucus leaders don’t always back up what they say publicly with actual action).
HAKEEM JEFFRIES told me that the upset in FL Tuesday night has led Democrats to targeting a half-dozen House Republicans in Florida, including MARIO DIAZ BALART, CARLOS GIMENEZ, BRIAN MAST and MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR.
Florida Republicans are getting very skittish about redistricting, as well.
“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” said Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), a former state house speaker. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”
“You could potentially do two [new GOP seats,]” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said. “I think after that, you are really, really, really, really risking a very large overreach, which I think is in the Democrats’ best interest.”
“They need to be really careful,” Gimenez said of the legislature’s remap. Lawmakers should study the special election results, he said. “They should look at what happened there. By trying to create more, you may end up with less.”
Gimenez also said he’s warned the Trump administration: “We have lost ground with Hispanics due to what happened with immigration.”
-Diaz-Balart has never went under 58% in his re-election apart from 2008; he's a no-go
-Gimenez's seat has become significantly redder with the large rightward shift with Hispanics and his becoming entrenched (something like 60-40 Trump IIRC)
-Mast's seat could actually be competitive, he had a competitive election in 2018 and faces a big challenge from Pia Dandiya
-Salazar's seat is probably the most likely red seat in Florida to flip
-Would agree with Alex Hupp and add Anna Paulina Luna, as well as Cory Mills and possibly Aaron Bean
It was 2008, though - there has been some pretty big shifts in politics since then. Democrats tried to target the seat in 2018 and ended up losing 60-40.
And even in 2008 when we had a D+11 GCB, Diaz-Balart won by 6. I’d love it if we had a political environment 6 points better than 2008, but that seems like a lot to ask for and there are probably plenty of other districts that are much easier targets than a district Trump won by 35 points in 2024 unless if Hispanic voters are snapping all the way back to being as Democratic as they were in 2016.
Hillary lost the district, as it was shaped at the time, by about 1.5 points. She won the district that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen left by about 20 points, and won the district now held by Gimenez too
I think we might be underestimating the Latino voter snap back. Why is 2016 the limit for us? What if, and I know, this sounds crazy, but what if, these voters move more Democratic than 2016 Hillary?
-40-50 approval from them based on costs and immigration seems like a wide open path to me for democrats to possibly even improve on 2016 numbers. After all, TX wasn’t competitive that year, but it is in 2026.
Most of these are heavily dependant on major gains with Hispanics (especially Cubans) and now of the special election districts included a lot of Hispanic voters.
With regards to fundraising and funding, I have a simple question: Would Trump have attacked Iran, if that war had to be fully funded – and paid for by billionaires and large corporations?
And would he have attacked Iran if it meant sending their sons and daughters to fight?
Recced this Digest because of the amazing subtitle.
(You have to be Jewish, or at least have attended a Passover seder, to understand it.)
Another question: does Hal Rogers or Kevin Smith (whoever wins that GOP primary in Kentucky) have to sweat a serious Democratic challenger in November’s General Election?
One of the reddest seats in the whole country.
Cook CVI R+32. If you believe a uniform swing, Democrats need to win the country 82-18, in order to carry it. Lol.
Thanks for quantifying. Ok, I get it: a Democratic could run against an overfilled adult diaper, and they would still lose – provided the diaper had an (R) next to its name.
On the CD level, pretty much. Come November, I'd watch the margins more than I'd hope that Pillersdorf could pull a hat out of a rabbit and win.
Is that how we got our current President?
From your keyboard to God's ears...
Though the eastern part of the district still elects some democrats down ballot. Floyd County elects a Democrat to the state house, and a number of the eastern counties voted for Governor Beshear in 2023.
One of the most traditionally Republican ones going back to the old Unionist Republican days too
That's true for part of the district. Much of it is what used to be the Seventh District, which Carl Perkins and his son Chris held from 1948 until 1992, when it was lost to reapportionment. (Chris was caught up in the 1992 House banking scandal, which is one reason he didn't try to run in the new district.)
Seeing the entire Cold War through your congressional career, that's a hell of a run.. /s
Right. Very much a district divided during the era of coal unions. Neighboring Leslie and Knott counties routinely went 80-20 in the opposite direction.
There is a Democratic challenger, Ned Pillersdorf, and he is serious about running against "King Hal". Whether the R nominee would have to sweat his candidacy is another question, and the answer is "not very likely".
Please keep in mind that KY is a closed primary state, and that anyone who changed their party registration now would be ineligible to vote in either party's primary, so there won't be any crossover voting.
im rooting for hal rogers, i dont agree with nearly anything he says but he voted for appropriation bills under obama and at least understands that if you're going to represent one of the poorest districts in the country you need to bring home some bacon
They would have if this was 1986. Probably not since then. I don't think even Bill Clinton won this seat. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I'm guessing Dan Mongiardo probably beat Bunning here in 2004 though.
Bill Clinton won it twice and Gore actually got 42% of the vote here.
In your write up you describe Harry Dunn as a "prestigious fundraiser" when I believe you mean "prodigious" :)
Yep, thank you!
Too complicated
New here?
Good news: there are plenty of much-simpler political narratives out there.
Ignoring things that are complicated will solve everything.
Maine Emerson poll:
Platner leads Mills 55-28.
Platner leads Collins in the general 48-41.
Mills leads Collins in the general 46-43.
Also interesting: 52% of Mills primary voters have an unfavorable view of Platner, while 36% of Platner voters have an unfavorable view of Mills.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/maine-2026-poll-platner-leads-gov-mills-democrats-lead-sen-collins-in-maine/
I mean, I'm not hugely fond of either Mills or Platner - I feel like Democrats could certainly do significantly better here - but I'd still vote for either of them in a heartbeat against Collins.
would vote for either as well, but hoping for everyone's sake janet rolls out some policy ideas. sara gideon's whole bit was I'm not susan collins and susan collins enables trump. we need to present a vison other than being not trump.
platner, for his many issues, does offer an alternative vision to the madness afflicting the country
It seems like polls are showing Plattner being the favorite at this point over the Governor, and Senator.
Pretty consistently, too! Goes against the conventional wisdom that pushed Mills into the race after Platner had already taken off.
At this point, I'll take either. We just need to beat Collins. We can sort out getting a "better Democrat" later. I'm generally of the mind that Mills is the stronger GE candidate and she would certainly be my choice, but I suspect either one of them would be a (modest) favorite in this environment.
What chance does Platner turn into a Fetterman clone in elected?
Would you rather have a Fetterman clone or Collins in an otherwise 50-49 senate. I know what Id choose.
Well we still have an alternative atm.
Who won’t rip up the one thing that would prevent a Democratic trifecta from passing most of our agenda. So to be clear, I don’t like either candidate, but there isn’t really an alternative for Democrats if their goal is to pass good legislation, not just stop bad legislation. If I have to pick between stymied for 2-4 years, watch a Republican wave eliminate our majority, putting MAGA back in power or a Nazi tattoo, horrible social media posts, may turn into a Fetterman, but also supportive of eliminating the barriers to actually legislate, yeah, I know who I’m picking.
I’m still not willing to actually support him since a red line for me was crossed, but he’s going to be our nominee and he’s going to dog walk Collins who the entire campaign makes ads about Platner’s Reddit posts and tattoo which results in Maine voters going “so what?” By the end of it because they know and don’t care. While he attacks her mercilessly and promotes his positive agenda for voters. Wonder how that will work out?
See: Exhibit A Trump, when Democrats put a rightful amount of attacks against a right to point out how extreme and horrible of a human being he is at scale to show just how bad he is, which ended up actually making all of our attacks complete noise to voters and nothing ever stuck to him since he first introduced himself to Americans. I’ve seen this movie before and I already know what happens at the end.
Though to be fair, IOKIYAR was coined for a reason. We'll see whether voters indeed don't care about problems with Democrats. Those did matter in Virginia, but they still elected Jay Jones by a significant margin.
I think his 'bad' case is likely closer to Jim Webb, where he doesn't cast a lot of problematic votes but gets frustrated with how things work and leaves after one term. His 'good' case is that he takes advice (maybe from Angus King, Bernie Sanders, and Ruben Gallego?) and grows into the role.
Despite some issues, I always kind of liked Jim Webb.
Maybe all the space stuff.
Great songwriter also. He wrote some of the best songs of the sixties for artists ranging from Glen Campbell to the Fifth Dimension. Also "MacArthur Park"... (s/ not really the same guy).
I worked for Jim Webb's Presidential campaign. He HATES all things politics, but actually loved legislating and helping people.
Fetterman actually had a lot of curious positions, but they weren't as salient until after he was elected.
Platner seems genuinely opposed to republicans. If he's elected and becomes problematic it would presumably be a different route than Fetterman. Maybe in the vein of being a democratic version of Rand Paul. I don't see it as super likely but it is of course possible.
Plus, Fetterman's problem is almost certainly the downstream impacts of his stroke rather than him being secretly very republican sympathetic the whole time.
If Plantner were to get elected he's going to have do so after being accused of condoning sexual assault, having Nazi sympathies, not sure what other scandals are out there. He isn't going to go there and be a problem, IMO. Otherwise, he will get slapped down by his colleagues. He should just keep his head down and follow Angus King. King won't give him a hard time if Plantner is serious about serving the people of their state.
Well, if being a Democratic version of Rand Paul means he's also against the Iran War and plenty of wars we don't need, then we can count on him and Paul for votes against war.
What correlation are you drawing between Fetterman and Platner? That they're both a little rough around the edges? Have a working-class image?
I think part of Fetterman's problem, aside from his stroke (or perhaps because of it), is that he believes he is acting from a position of moral superiority and "rising above" the political conflict. That arrogance empowers him to trash on his own party and vote with the opposition, which could be a useful strategy if he were actually asking for anything in return, which he is not. Platner seems more likely to criticize his party from the left and demand that it be more effective, rather than to move all the way to the other end and vote with the opposition.
Angus King thought he was extra clever and could serve in the Senate without a caucus, but then he learned how the Senate works and chose a caucus. If Platner wants to be a rabble-rouser, hopefully King can help him figure out how to also be effective so he can be more like AOC than Fetterman.
Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't Fetterman's Dad able to subsidize his lifestyle while he Mayor and doing all of that non-profit work? I think John may have done some underwriting work for him, but that is about it. My point being that if your Dad owns an insurance company, you may have a superiority complex. Fetterman may have rhetorically gone over to the other side on some big issues of the day, but I will take him over any member of the GOP in the U.S. Senate. I wonder if he is just tired because of his health and just considers it easier to stop fighting on some issues.
So long as Platner doesn't have a massive stroke, I think he'll be fine.
Always possible. I'd be more worried he'd turn into an Alan Grayson clone, making hysterical comments that smother the narrative.
Yesterday, I learned that Grayson is a candidate in the Florida Senate race. He was listed on politics1.com
I think this is going to be very controversial but I don't think it's that complex – Fetterman suffered a serious stroke which deteriorated his brain and helped him get depressed, negatively polarized and radicalized against progressives at first, and then Democrats as a whole, by the October 7 massacre and the murder of Laken Riley by an illegal immigrant.
Also, he became really close to his Fox News watching Republican family who have his ear now (basically everyone except his left leaning wife) according to one reporter.
Wasn't Gideon leading by more at this point?
If I recall correctly, never over 50 percent; perhaps a cautionary note here.
2020 polling was awful. Quinnipiac had Gideon up 54-42, a miss of over 20 points on margin. Even NYT/Siena had Gideon up 49-44. In the end Collins won 51-42.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine#Aggregate_polls
Thanks for fleshing out my poor recollection.
New Hampshire Emerson poll:
John Sununu leads Scott Brown 48-19.
Pappas narrowly leads Sununu 44-43.
Pappas leads Brown 48-39.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/
As expected, many voters here probably think John Sununu and former governor Chris Sununu are the same person.
Bununu !!!
You ever see that ad online? Most cringe thing I've ever seen lol
There's also John Sununu the elder. At this point, I'm sure NH Republicans are used to voting for the Sununu name without really worrying about any distinctions between them.
Not sure how it sweetens the deal to be mistaken for Chris Sununu!
Probably going to be unpopular, but I’ve been consistently worried that NH was going to be one of the closest states for Democrats in Senate 2026 races because low info voters will see the name Sununu and think they’re voting for their 4 term Governor, who they like, to become a Senator. Republicans were very shrewd to get another Sununu to run. It wouldn’t at all shock me if the Republican wins NH while at the same time Democrats sweep the other tougher red state seats either.
Luckily Pappas is a fairly well known commodity, so I think he’ll still win, but anything less than like a D+5-6 year and I’d be nervous about this seat due to the unique dynamics of this race regardless of what’s happening elsewhere on the ballot.
Not unpopular, I think that’s a pretty measured and fair take
New Hampshire is usually close in the senate polling, but the Democrats usually wins. Sometimes by a surprising margin. Like 4 years ago.
Sabato moves 11 House races in our direction, almost all of them are incumbents they're moving from "Likely" to "Safe." https://x.com/kkondik/status/2037136574131929363/photo/1
The big one was moving OH-1 Landsman from Toss Up to Lead D
This is the easierst changes for sites to make in a pro blue wave environment. D incumbents to safe.
Then leans to likely.
Then (if ever) you will start seeing them shifting red seats from safe to likely, likely to lean.
They hardly ever predict the wave first, that is risky. No one wants egg on their face. The last stage will be moving D seats out of tossup/tilt to at least lean D and R seats into tossup/til R from lean R. That is as far as they will go.
They all have different approaches, and they've been consistent across election cycles. Cook basically never moves an incumbent beyond toss-up and will leave a bunch of races in the Toss-Up category through Election Day. Sabato, Gonzales, and RRH will eliminate all toss-ups a couple days before Election Day to officially make a prediction in all races.
Gonzales also loves to move things in and out of his precious little "Tilt" categories (Lead D to Tilt D, for example) all throughout the cycle. I think it's just to generate clicks.
It's absurd and illogical not to consider an incumbent to ever be more likely to lose than win.
Lol at "precious little Tilt categories". I remember checking how they performed after one election. The general "tossup", "lean", and "likely" categories had good correlations with the results. Even if there was a skew one way or another, and one party won most the tossups, overperformed in other categories, etc., you could see the utility of the ratings. That was not the case for the tilts. Democrats did just as good or bad in the tilt Dem seats as they did in the tilt GOP seats. No added value.
In a lower tweet reply, Kondik is asked about OH07, OH10 + OH15. He says they’re still Safe R in his mind, but he’s a little “intrigued” by those races.
Would say Poindexter and Knickerbocker are good underdogs to be rooting for, but I doubt Adam Miller or Don Leonard could give Carey a run for his money. OH-7 I feel is the embodiment of a Rust Belt seat that has slowly moved away from Democrats over time, and needs the right working class figure to save it.
Knickerbocker is a fucking awesome name for a candidate too, hell yeah
Rs effort to re gerrymander the UT seat failed. https://x.com/Taniel/status/2037173169841193280?s=20
Democrats win in redistricting in CA
Republicans lose in redistricting in UT.
I really like the sound of this.
UT Repubs fail to have enough sigs for their independent redistricting repeal ballot initiative!
https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/03/26/utah-republican-initiative-to-repeal-proposition-4-redistricting-law-fails-after-signature-removal-campaign-despite-trump-endorsement/
https://x.com/VoteNewDems/status/2036427306760089944
The NewDem Action Fund has endorsed Cait Conley (NY-17), Denise Powell (NE-02), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), Elaine Luria (VA-02) and Shannon Bird (CO-08). Their endorsement of Powell sets up another head-to-head with the CPC, which has endorsed Sen. John Cavanaugh though their PAC.
Luria is obviously a great get. The Nebraska's race is Cavanaugh's to lose. Rutinel makes for a more convincing/charismatic candidate in CO-08; Bird has bucked the party on more than a few occasions in the Legislature. Their endorsement of Conley is mind-boggling -- not voting in a midterm since 2007 reeks of laziness and unreliability!
OH-7: Sen. Bernie Sanders endorses Brian Poindexter
How old is Bernie now 90? No calls for him to step away?
He's 84 and is in good shape physically, headlining the Fight Oligarchy rallies, constantly appearing at events, and fulfilling his duties as a Senator. Not sure what this has to do with his age, though.
Also, he has announced he will likely retire when he is up for re-election next in 2030. There's no calls for him to step away - he will do it willingly.
No calls for him to step away, he is fighting a lot harder and more energetically for what he believes than some Senators many decades his junior.
What good would it be to replace the Bernies with Brian Schatz types?
Bernie has endorsed Abdul El Sayed in the Michigan Democratic Senate Race. Dr Sayed has pledged to support Medicare for All if he wins. I have received multiple fund raising letters from the McMorrow Campaign in recent weeks including on by Senator Chris Murphy endorsing her. I am putting my small dollar donations towards Dr Sayed for the primary, one reason is he is so experienced in public health and we will need his expertise after the debockal of The Big Ugly Bill. Also IAPAC came out with hit ads against him equating him with being a terrorist! I am so sick and tired of Israel running ads against Progressive Candidates! I don't want Bibi running our politics and foreign policy!
1. There were many calls for him to endorse Balint and not run in 2024.
2. It's materially worse for an old House member to cling onto their seat bc of how long specials take compared to a Senate appointment.
3. Yes, Scott is a Republican, and even if he said he would appoint a Dem there's nothing to stop him from lying and any Dem he choose won't be as left as Sanders. Which is why he should have endorsed Balint in 2024.
On (3), what are the odds of dems/progressives getting back to a veto-override threshold in Vermont's legislature this cycle? It would be great if they at least put in place some kind of same-party appointment requirement. I guess that's a bit awkward in Sanders' case, but there are ways to make it work.
While I would have preferred Bernie retire in 2024 purely for actuarial reasons, he hasn’t shown any signs of age issues compared to others his age, so I’ll (lightly) defend him on that front with the leading caveat
I would gently push back on the the "hasn't shown any signs of age issues", because he did have a heart attack in 2020. By all accounts he's fully recovered, of course, but it's still something.
So did Ben Ray Lujan, who turns 54 this year.
Luján had a stroke, not a heart attack. And yes, I understand that younger people can have heart attacks too. but the risk increases with age.
It's difficult to compare Vindman and Peltola. Peltola has led in every recent poll. Vindman has never led in a poll. In fact, the one Florida poll that polled both Vindman and Nixon against Moody found a negligible difference; Vindman was behind by 1% less than Nixon, but the 1% fell on Moody's side, not the democratic side, showing it possibly is a rounding difference. Alaskan media is undoubtedly much less expensive than Florida, so the cash advantage is less pronounced. And Peltola has won statewide in Alaska twice. Vindman has never run for office. I like them both. But Peltola has a much better chance and any financial disadvantage is much less likely to affect the race.
I don't think they're saying that Peltola and Vindman are similar or have an equal chance of winning, just that they're both high profile candidates about to finish their first fundraising quarters.
The post lumped Peltola and Vindman together and then had a separate paragraph about Minnesota.
They’re not really saying both are in the same category of flippability. They’re just categorizing both states as double digit Trump ones, which is a fact. Do I think they could’ve probably added a bit of language to differentiate the two or separate the races into different paragraphs? Sure, but this is really nitpicking because the stat they used to justify grouping the 2 races together is correct.
Bring on the younger candidates, please.
Virginia redistricting referendum. Modeled party ID, etc. of early voters:
https://x.com/kkondik/status/2037187014928343428?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
Be a bit careful on that modeled partisanship from L2.
Texas and Georgia, each has some 1.5million more Ds than Rs according to that model. lol
Actually FWIW from L2 data, they have Virginia’s full registration list modeled with a 21pt D lead.
So if the turnout as modeled a 18pt D lead, that means even L2 thinks Rs are turning out at a bit higher rate. Should we be worried? lol.
Tbh. That modeled partisanship is pure BS. But so far it seems the turnout closely tracks 2025 general turnout, both VBM and IPEV.
I don’t know if Mast is beatable, but the rest sound good to me (if they actually do put resources here, caucus leaders don’t always back up what they say publicly with actual action).
https://x.com/JakeSherman/status/2037096933739639254
HAKEEM JEFFRIES told me that the upset in FL Tuesday night has led Democrats to targeting a half-dozen House Republicans in Florida, including MARIO DIAZ BALART, CARLOS GIMENEZ, BRIAN MAST and MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR.
Florida Republicans are getting very skittish about redistricting, as well.
https://punchbowl.news/archive/32626-am/
“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” said Rep. Daniel Webster (R-Fla.), a former state house speaker. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”
“You could potentially do two [new GOP seats,]” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said. “I think after that, you are really, really, really, really risking a very large overreach, which I think is in the Democrats’ best interest.”
“They need to be really careful,” Gimenez said of the legislature’s remap. Lawmakers should study the special election results, he said. “They should look at what happened there. By trying to create more, you may end up with less.”
Gimenez also said he’s warned the Trump administration: “We have lost ground with Hispanics due to what happened with immigration.”
Surprised Luna isn't in that list. She's probably more beatable than Balart, Gimenez, and Mast.
The DCCC is already targeting Lee, Luna and Mills, so that’s probably why he didn’t mention any of them.
Makes sense
-Diaz-Balart has never went under 58% in his re-election apart from 2008; he's a no-go
-Gimenez's seat has become significantly redder with the large rightward shift with Hispanics and his becoming entrenched (something like 60-40 Trump IIRC)
-Mast's seat could actually be competitive, he had a competitive election in 2018 and faces a big challenge from Pia Dandiya
-Salazar's seat is probably the most likely red seat in Florida to flip
-Would agree with Alex Hupp and add Anna Paulina Luna, as well as Cory Mills and possibly Aaron Bean
I don't agree that someone who's previously won with 58% of the vote couldn't be vulnerable in this climate.
It was 2008, though - there has been some pretty big shifts in politics since then. Democrats tried to target the seat in 2018 and ended up losing 60-40.
And even in 2008 when we had a D+11 GCB, Diaz-Balart won by 6. I’d love it if we had a political environment 6 points better than 2008, but that seems like a lot to ask for and there are probably plenty of other districts that are much easier targets than a district Trump won by 35 points in 2024 unless if Hispanic voters are snapping all the way back to being as Democratic as they were in 2016.
Hillary lost the district, as it was shaped at the time, by about 1.5 points. She won the district that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen left by about 20 points, and won the district now held by Gimenez too
I think we might be underestimating the Latino voter snap back. Why is 2016 the limit for us? What if, and I know, this sounds crazy, but what if, these voters move more Democratic than 2016 Hillary?
-40-50 approval from them based on costs and immigration seems like a wide open path to me for democrats to possibly even improve on 2016 numbers. After all, TX wasn’t competitive that year, but it is in 2026.
Most of these are heavily dependant on major gains with Hispanics (especially Cubans) and now of the special election districts included a lot of Hispanic voters.