That’s great news and investing in the future is important, but it is absurd that we’re talking about a rail extension that isn’t even going to start construction for another 15 years and won’t be built for another 21 even if there are no delays (and there are always delays for projects like this). Nothing should take that long to build, even stuff like the DC Silver Line took less time than that even with years of delays.
And we still have to get high speed rail, which has been a boondoggle for over ten years while Japan has had its own high speed rail system since the mid 60's.
It’s a step or two below the true manosphere types (of which I consider Rogan more adjacent to than fully of), but the Barstool Bros are probably even more gettable, especially if a post-Trump GOP leans even harder into evangelical Christian Nationalist bullshit. It’s a pretty anti-“woke,” for lack of a better term, constituency, but also an extremely secular and libertine one
Kevin Clancy from Barstool was a guest with Tim Miller on the Bulwark a few months ago and this was their exact takeaway - you can get these guys, they don't want the crazy stuff.
I forgot who exactly said it back in 2022 when Dave Portnoy was actively criticizing the GOP over Dobbs but “dudes who want to party and rawdog don’t want abortion and birth control to get banned purely out of narrow self-interest.”
These are eminently swing voters who get right-coded in the progressive cultural context of 2014-21 but who are eminently gettable these days with the changes in emphasis by Democrats and the self-segregation of the old Twitterati into BlueSky irrelevance and of course the batshittery of the Trump WH breaking through to basically every apolitical normie
They may be using deliberately cautious assumptions. People typically release internals to raise money, and it helps to show the race as closer than they think it actually is, whether they are ahead or behind.
Yeah, the margin is no coincidence. Tells the story it's meant to tell, this is a winning candidate, but it's still close, so send money! Doesn't mean the poll is wrong, just that a +1 poll for a challenger is a great one to release.
This is a tough seat for Dems. It’s really a lot like Iowa and MN-01. Even if Cooke wins in 2026, I think the chances of being able to hold the seat long term are not good unless it’s redrawn to pick up a chunk of Dane county.
Kind of reminds me of IA-01 in 2018 and 2020 (we won it and then lost it two years later with Presidential year turnout).
-Diaz-Balart has never went under 58% in his re-election apart from 2008; he's a no-go
-Gimenez's seat has become significantly redder with the large rightward shift with Hispanics and his becoming entrenched (something like 60-40 Trump IIRC)
-Mast's seat could actually be competitive, he had a competitive election in 2018 and faces a big challenge from Pia Dandiya
-Salazar's seat is probably the most likely red seat in Florida to flip
-Would agree with Alex Hupp and add Anna Paulina Luna, as well as Cory Mills and possibly Aaron Bean
It was 2008, though - there has been some pretty big shifts in politics since then. Democrats tried to target the seat in 2018 and ended up losing 60-40.
And even in 2008 when we had a D+11 GCB, Diaz-Balart won by 6. I’d love it if we had a political environment 6 points better than 2008, but that seems like a lot to ask for and there are probably plenty of other districts that are much easier targets than a district Trump won by 35 points in 2024 unless if Hispanic voters are snapping all the way back to being as Democratic as they were in 2016.
Hillary lost the district, as it was shaped at the time, by about 1.5 points. She won the district that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen left by about 20 points, and won the district now held by Gimenez too
Most of these are heavily dependant on major gains with Hispanics (especially Cubans) and now of the special election districts included a lot of Hispanic voters.
With regards to fundraising and funding, I have a simple question: Would Trump have attacked Iran, if that war had to be fully funded – and paid for by billionaires and large corporations?
Another question: does Hal Rogers or Kevin Smith (whoever wins that GOP primary in Kentucky) have to sweat a serious Democratic challenger in November’s General Election?
Thanks for quantifying. Ok, I get it: a Democratic could run against an overfilled adult diaper, and they would still lose – provided the diaper had an (R) next to its name.
Though the eastern part of the district still elects some democrats down ballot. Floyd County elects a Democrat to the state house, and a number of the eastern counties voted for Governor Beshear in 2023.
That's true for part of the district. Much of it is what used to be the Seventh District, which Carl Perkins and his son Chris held from 1948 until 1992, when it was lost to reapportionment. (Chris was caught up in the 1992 House banking scandal, which is one reason he didn't try to run in the new district.)
Right. Very much a district divided during the era of coal unions. Neighboring Leslie and Knott counties routinely went 80-20 in the opposite direction.
There is a Democratic challenger, Ned Pillersdorf, and he is serious about running against "King Hal". Whether the R nominee would have to sweat his candidacy is another question, and the answer is "not very likely".
Please keep in mind that KY is a closed primary state, and that anyone who changed their party registration now would be ineligible to vote in either party's primary, so there won't be any crossover voting.
im rooting for hal rogers, i dont agree with nearly anything he says but he voted for appropriation bills under obama and at least understands that if you're going to represent one of the poorest districts in the country you need to bring home some bacon
They would have if this was 1986. Probably not since then. I don't think even Bill Clinton won this seat. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I'm guessing Dan Mongiardo probably beat Bunning here in 2004 though.
would vote for either as well, but hoping for everyone's sake janet rolls out some policy ideas. sara gideon's whole bit was I'm not susan collins and susan collins enables trump. we need to present a vison other than being not trump.
platner, for his many issues, does offer an alternative vision to the madness afflicting the country
At this point, I'll take either. We just need to beat Collins. We can sort out getting a "better Democrat" later. I'm generally of the mind that Mills is the stronger GE candidate and she would certainly be my choice, but I suspect either one of them would be a (modest) favorite in this environment.
Though to be fair, IOKIYAR was coined for a reason. We'll see whether voters indeed don't care about problems with Democrats. Those did matter in Virginia, but they still elected Jay Jones by a significant margin.
I think his 'bad' case is likely closer to Jim Webb, where he doesn't cast a lot of problematic votes but gets frustrated with how things work and leaves after one term. His 'good' case is that he takes advice (maybe from Angus King, Bernie Sanders, and Ruben Gallego?) and grows into the role.
Great songwriter also. He wrote some of the best songs of the sixties for artists ranging from Glen Campbell to the Fifth Dimension. Also "MacArthur Park"... (s/ not really the same guy).
Platner seems genuinely opposed to republicans. If he's elected and becomes problematic it would presumably be a different route than Fetterman. Maybe in the vein of being a democratic version of Rand Paul. I don't see it as super likely but it is of course possible.
Plus, Fetterman's problem is almost certainly the downstream impacts of his stroke rather than him being secretly very republican sympathetic the whole time.
Well, if being a Democratic version of Rand Paul means he's also against the Iran War and plenty of wars we don't need, then we can count on him and Paul for votes against war.
What correlation are you drawing between Fetterman and Platner? That they're both a little rough around the edges? Have a working-class image?
I think part of Fetterman's problem, aside from his stroke (or perhaps because of it), is that he believes he is acting from a position of moral superiority and "rising above" the political conflict. That arrogance empowers him to trash on his own party and vote with the opposition, which could be a useful strategy if he were actually asking for anything in return, which he is not. Platner seems more likely to criticize his party from the left and demand that it be more effective, rather than to move all the way to the other end and vote with the opposition.
Angus King thought he was extra clever and could serve in the Senate without a caucus, but then he learned how the Senate works and chose a caucus. If Platner wants to be a rabble-rouser, hopefully King can help him figure out how to also be effective so he can be more like AOC than Fetterman.
I think this is going to be very controversial but I don't think it's that complex – Fetterman suffered a serious stroke which deteriorated his brain and helped him get depressed, negatively polarized and radicalized against progressives at first, and then Democrats as a whole, by the October 7 massacre and the murder of Laken Riley by an illegal immigrant.
Also, he became really close to his Fox News watching Republican family who have his ear now (basically everyone except his left leaning wife) according to one reporter.
2020 polling was awful. Quinnipiac had Gideon up 54-42, a miss of over 20 points on margin. Even NYT/Siena had Gideon up 49-44. In the end Collins won 51-42.
There's also John Sununu the elder. At this point, I'm sure NH Republicans are used to voting for the Sununu name without really worrying about any distinctions between them.
Would say Poindexter and Knickerbocker are good underdogs to be rooting for, but I doubt Adam Miller or Don Leonard could give Carey a run for his money. OH-7 I feel is the embodiment of a Rust Belt seat that has slowly moved away from Democrats over time, and needs the right working class figure to save it.
This is the easierst changes for sites to make in a pro blue wave environment. D incumbents to safe.
Then leans to likely.
Then (if ever) you will start seeing them shifting red seats from safe to likely, likely to lean.
They hardly ever predict the wave first, that is risky. No one wants egg on their face. The last stage will be moving D seats out of tossup/tilt to at least lean D and R seats into tossup/til R from lean R. That is as far as they will go.
They all have different approaches, and they've been consistent across election cycles. Cook basically never moves an incumbent beyond toss-up and will leave a bunch of races in the Toss-Up category through Election Day. Sabato, Gonzales, and RRH will eliminate all toss-ups a couple days before Election Day to officially make a prediction in all races.
Gonzales also loves to move things in and out of his precious little "Tilt" categories (Lead D to Tilt D, for example) all throughout the cycle. I think it's just to generate clicks.
Lol at "precious little Tilt categories". I remember checking how they performed after one election. The general "tossup", "lean", and "likely" categories had good correlations with the results. Even if there was a skew one way or another, and one party won most the tossups, overperformed in other categories, etc., you could see the utility of the ratings. That was not the case for the tilts. Democrats did just as good or bad in the tilt Dem seats as they did in the tilt GOP seats. No added value.
The NewDem Action Fund has endorsed Cait Conley (NY-17), Denise Powell (NE-02), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), Elaine Luria (VA-02) and Shannon Bird (CO-08). Their endorsement of Powell sets up another head-to-head with the CPC, which has endorsed Sen. John Cavanaugh though their PAC.
Luria is obviously a great get. The Nebraska's race is Cavanaugh's to lose. Rutinel makes for a more convincing/charismatic candidate in CO-08; Bird has bucked the party on more than a few occasions in the Legislature. Their endorsement of Conley is mind-boggling -- not voting in a midterm since 2007 reeks of laziness and unreliability!
On (3), what are the odds of dems/progressives getting back to a veto-override threshold in Vermont's legislature this cycle? It would be great if they at least put in place some kind of same-party appointment requirement. I guess that's a bit awkward in Sanders' case, but there are ways to make it work.
He's 84 and is in good shape physically, headlining the Fight Oligarchy rallies, constantly appearing at events, and fulfilling his duties as a Senator. Not sure what this has to do with his age, though.
Also, he has announced he will likely retire when he is up for re-election next in 2030. There's no calls for him to step away - he will do it willingly.
Bernie has endorsed Abdul El Sayed in the Michigan Democratic Senate Race. Dr Sayed has pledged to support Medicare for All if he wins. I have received multiple fund raising letters from the McMorrow Campaign in recent weeks including on by Senator Chris Murphy endorsing her. I am putting my small dollar donations towards Dr Sayed for the primary, one reason is he is so experienced in public health and we will need his expertise after the debockal of The Big Ugly Bill. Also IAPAC came out with hit ads against him equating him with being a terrorist! I am so sick and tired of Israel running ads against Progressive Candidates! I don't want Bibi running our politics and foreign policy!
While I would have preferred Bernie retire in 2024 purely for actuarial reasons, he hasn’t shown any signs of age issues compared to others his age, so I’ll (lightly) defend him on that front with the leading caveat
I would gently push back on the the "hasn't shown any signs of age issues", because he did have a heart attack in 2020. By all accounts he's fully recovered, of course, but it's still something.
It's difficult to compare Vindman and Peltola. Peltola has led in every recent poll. Vindman has never led in a poll. In fact, the one Florida poll that polled both Vindman and Nixon against Moody found a negligible difference; Vindman was behind by 1% less than Nixon, but the 1% fell on Moody's side, not the democratic side, showing it possibly is a rounding difference. Alaskan media is undoubtedly much less expensive than Florida, so the cash advantage is less pronounced. And Peltola has won statewide in Alaska twice. Vindman has never run for office. I like them both. But Peltola has a much better chance and any financial disadvantage is much less likely to affect the race.
I don't think they're saying that Peltola and Vindman are similar or have an equal chance of winning, just that they're both high profile candidates about to finish their first fundraising quarters.
That’s great news and investing in the future is important, but it is absurd that we’re talking about a rail extension that isn’t even going to start construction for another 15 years and won’t be built for another 21 even if there are no delays (and there are always delays for projects like this). Nothing should take that long to build, even stuff like the DC Silver Line took less time than that even with years of delays.
California gonna California. Fixing the state’s complete inability to do mega projects would go a long way
And we still have to get high speed rail, which has been a boondoggle for over ten years while Japan has had its own high speed rail system since the mid 60's.
Yes but at least consultants and environmental plaintiffs lawyers got new yachts so win win?
Someone's got to profit!
You love to see it.
It’s a step or two below the true manosphere types (of which I consider Rogan more adjacent to than fully of), but the Barstool Bros are probably even more gettable, especially if a post-Trump GOP leans even harder into evangelical Christian Nationalist bullshit. It’s a pretty anti-“woke,” for lack of a better term, constituency, but also an extremely secular and libertine one
Kevin Clancy from Barstool was a guest with Tim Miller on the Bulwark a few months ago and this was their exact takeaway - you can get these guys, they don't want the crazy stuff.
I forgot who exactly said it back in 2022 when Dave Portnoy was actively criticizing the GOP over Dobbs but “dudes who want to party and rawdog don’t want abortion and birth control to get banned purely out of narrow self-interest.”
These are eminently swing voters who get right-coded in the progressive cultural context of 2014-21 but who are eminently gettable these days with the changes in emphasis by Democrats and the self-segregation of the old Twitterati into BlueSky irrelevance and of course the batshittery of the Trump WH breaking through to basically every apolitical normie
PFT Commenter is a known lib as well
His old persona was very pointedly satire, like Colbert’s character on Comedy Central, of a certain archetype
This is a poll for the right wing org, not for any campaigns, right?
Yes, it is. If it's THIS bad for GOP polling for Whatley and Stevens, imagine a Quinnipiac or YouGov poll later on in the summer.
There's no way Earls loses if Cooper has a relatively easy win.
Yeah, I agree. He's going to bring her over the line, and likely much higher than 734 votes more than Stevens.
Down-ballot drop off is an issue for Democratic voters in NC.
We need to do a much better job of educating voters!
She'll likely run 1-2 points behind Cooper. So, if he wins 52-47 (a near certainty in my mind), she'll hit 50 at least.
Not sure if that's enough. This seems like a pretty easy pickup opportunity but that's not impressive
agreed, but the environment is not getting better for republicans. Iran war is not going away, nor is epstein files, skyrocketing prices etc
They may be using deliberately cautious assumptions. People typically release internals to raise money, and it helps to show the race as closer than they think it actually is, whether they are ahead or behind.
Yeah, the margin is no coincidence. Tells the story it's meant to tell, this is a winning candidate, but it's still close, so send money! Doesn't mean the poll is wrong, just that a +1 poll for a challenger is a great one to release.
This is a tough seat for Dems. It’s really a lot like Iowa and MN-01. Even if Cooke wins in 2026, I think the chances of being able to hold the seat long term are not good unless it’s redrawn to pick up a chunk of Dane county.
Kind of reminds me of IA-01 in 2018 and 2020 (we won it and then lost it two years later with Presidential year turnout).
That's a really good comparison I hadn't thought of before. Hopefully, it's drawn to take in the western edges of Madison in 2032.
We’d probably need a commission in place that prioritizes competitiveness and proportionality to get this configuration in 2032.
Surprised Luna isn't in that list. She's probably more beatable than Balart, Gimenez, and Mast.
Makes sense
-Diaz-Balart has never went under 58% in his re-election apart from 2008; he's a no-go
-Gimenez's seat has become significantly redder with the large rightward shift with Hispanics and his becoming entrenched (something like 60-40 Trump IIRC)
-Mast's seat could actually be competitive, he had a competitive election in 2018 and faces a big challenge from Pia Dandiya
-Salazar's seat is probably the most likely red seat in Florida to flip
-Would agree with Alex Hupp and add Anna Paulina Luna, as well as Cory Mills and possibly Aaron Bean
I don't agree that someone who's previously won with 58% of the vote couldn't be vulnerable in this climate.
It was 2008, though - there has been some pretty big shifts in politics since then. Democrats tried to target the seat in 2018 and ended up losing 60-40.
And even in 2008 when we had a D+11 GCB, Diaz-Balart won by 6. I’d love it if we had a political environment 6 points better than 2008, but that seems like a lot to ask for and there are probably plenty of other districts that are much easier targets than a district Trump won by 35 points in 2024 unless if Hispanic voters are snapping all the way back to being as Democratic as they were in 2016.
Hillary lost the district, as it was shaped at the time, by about 1.5 points. She won the district that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen left by about 20 points, and won the district now held by Gimenez too
Most of these are heavily dependant on major gains with Hispanics (especially Cubans) and now of the special election districts included a lot of Hispanic voters.
With regards to fundraising and funding, I have a simple question: Would Trump have attacked Iran, if that war had to be fully funded – and paid for by billionaires and large corporations?
And would he have attacked Iran if it meant sending their sons and daughters to fight?
Another question: does Hal Rogers or Kevin Smith (whoever wins that GOP primary in Kentucky) have to sweat a serious Democratic challenger in November’s General Election?
One of the reddest seats in the whole country.
Cook CVI R+32. If you believe a uniform swing, Democrats need to win the country 82-18, in order to carry it. Lol.
Thanks for quantifying. Ok, I get it: a Democratic could run against an overfilled adult diaper, and they would still lose – provided the diaper had an (R) next to its name.
On the CD level, pretty much. Come November, I'd watch the margins more than I'd hope that Pillersdorf could pull a hat out of a rabbit and win.
Is that how we got our current President?
From your keyboard to God's ears...
Though the eastern part of the district still elects some democrats down ballot. Floyd County elects a Democrat to the state house, and a number of the eastern counties voted for Governor Beshear in 2023.
One of the most traditionally Republican ones going back to the old Unionist Republican days too
That's true for part of the district. Much of it is what used to be the Seventh District, which Carl Perkins and his son Chris held from 1948 until 1992, when it was lost to reapportionment. (Chris was caught up in the 1992 House banking scandal, which is one reason he didn't try to run in the new district.)
Seeing the entire Cold War through your congressional career, that's a hell of a run.. /s
Right. Very much a district divided during the era of coal unions. Neighboring Leslie and Knott counties routinely went 80-20 in the opposite direction.
There is a Democratic challenger, Ned Pillersdorf, and he is serious about running against "King Hal". Whether the R nominee would have to sweat his candidacy is another question, and the answer is "not very likely".
Please keep in mind that KY is a closed primary state, and that anyone who changed their party registration now would be ineligible to vote in either party's primary, so there won't be any crossover voting.
im rooting for hal rogers, i dont agree with nearly anything he says but he voted for appropriation bills under obama and at least understands that if you're going to represent one of the poorest districts in the country you need to bring home some bacon
They would have if this was 1986. Probably not since then. I don't think even Bill Clinton won this seat. Someone can correct me if I'm wrong. I'm guessing Dan Mongiardo probably beat Bunning here in 2004 though.
Bill Clinton won it twice and Gore actually got 42% of the vote here.
In your write up you describe Harry Dunn as a "prestigious fundraiser" when I believe you mean "prodigious" :)
Yep, thank you!
Too complicated
New here?
Good news: there are plenty of much-simpler political narratives out there.
Ignoring things that are complicated will solve everything.
Maine Emerson poll:
Platner leads Mills 55-28.
Platner leads Collins in the general 48-41.
Mills leads Collins in the general 46-43.
Also interesting: 52% of Mills primary voters have an unfavorable view of Platner, while 36% of Platner voters have an unfavorable view of Mills.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/maine-2026-poll-platner-leads-gov-mills-democrats-lead-sen-collins-in-maine/
would vote for either as well, but hoping for everyone's sake janet rolls out some policy ideas. sara gideon's whole bit was I'm not susan collins and susan collins enables trump. we need to present a vison other than being not trump.
platner, for his many issues, does offer an alternative vision to the madness afflicting the country
It seems like polls are showing Plattner being the favorite at this point over the Governor, and Senator.
Pretty consistently, too! Goes against the conventional wisdom that pushed Mills into the race after Platner had already taken off.
At this point, I'll take either. We just need to beat Collins. We can sort out getting a "better Democrat" later. I'm generally of the mind that Mills is the stronger GE candidate and she would certainly be my choice, but I suspect either one of them would be a (modest) favorite in this environment.
What chance does Platner turn into a Fetterman clone in elected?
Would you rather have a Fetterman clone or Collins in an otherwise 50-49 senate. I know what Id choose.
Well we still have an alternative atm.
Though to be fair, IOKIYAR was coined for a reason. We'll see whether voters indeed don't care about problems with Democrats. Those did matter in Virginia, but they still elected Jay Jones by a significant margin.
I think his 'bad' case is likely closer to Jim Webb, where he doesn't cast a lot of problematic votes but gets frustrated with how things work and leaves after one term. His 'good' case is that he takes advice (maybe from Angus King, Bernie Sanders, and Ruben Gallego?) and grows into the role.
Despite some issues, I always kind of liked Jim Webb.
Maybe all the space stuff.
Great songwriter also. He wrote some of the best songs of the sixties for artists ranging from Glen Campbell to the Fifth Dimension. Also "MacArthur Park"... (s/ not really the same guy).
Fetterman actually had a lot of curious positions, but they weren't as salient until after he was elected.
Platner seems genuinely opposed to republicans. If he's elected and becomes problematic it would presumably be a different route than Fetterman. Maybe in the vein of being a democratic version of Rand Paul. I don't see it as super likely but it is of course possible.
Plus, Fetterman's problem is almost certainly the downstream impacts of his stroke rather than him being secretly very republican sympathetic the whole time.
Well, if being a Democratic version of Rand Paul means he's also against the Iran War and plenty of wars we don't need, then we can count on him and Paul for votes against war.
What correlation are you drawing between Fetterman and Platner? That they're both a little rough around the edges? Have a working-class image?
I think part of Fetterman's problem, aside from his stroke (or perhaps because of it), is that he believes he is acting from a position of moral superiority and "rising above" the political conflict. That arrogance empowers him to trash on his own party and vote with the opposition, which could be a useful strategy if he were actually asking for anything in return, which he is not. Platner seems more likely to criticize his party from the left and demand that it be more effective, rather than to move all the way to the other end and vote with the opposition.
Angus King thought he was extra clever and could serve in the Senate without a caucus, but then he learned how the Senate works and chose a caucus. If Platner wants to be a rabble-rouser, hopefully King can help him figure out how to also be effective so he can be more like AOC than Fetterman.
So long as Platner doesn't have a massive stroke, I think he'll be fine.
Always possible. I'd be more worried he'd turn into an Alan Grayson clone, making hysterical comments that smother the narrative.
Yesterday, I learned that Grayson is a candidate in the Florida Senate race. He was listed on politics1.com
I think this is going to be very controversial but I don't think it's that complex – Fetterman suffered a serious stroke which deteriorated his brain and helped him get depressed, negatively polarized and radicalized against progressives at first, and then Democrats as a whole, by the October 7 massacre and the murder of Laken Riley by an illegal immigrant.
Also, he became really close to his Fox News watching Republican family who have his ear now (basically everyone except his left leaning wife) according to one reporter.
Wasn't Gideon leading by more at this point?
If I recall correctly, never over 50 percent; perhaps a cautionary note here.
2020 polling was awful. Quinnipiac had Gideon up 54-42, a miss of over 20 points on margin. Even NYT/Siena had Gideon up 49-44. In the end Collins won 51-42.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_Senate_election_in_Maine#Aggregate_polls
Thanks for fleshing out my poor recollection.
New Hampshire Emerson poll:
John Sununu leads Scott Brown 48-19.
Pappas narrowly leads Sununu 44-43.
Pappas leads Brown 48-39.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/new-hampshire-2026-sununu-leads-gop-nomination-ties-pappas-for-senate/
Not unpopular, I think that’s a pretty measured and fair take
New Hampshire is usually close in the senate polling, but the Democrats usually wins. Sometimes by a surprising margin. Like 4 years ago.
As expected, many voters here probably think John Sununu and former governor Chris Sununu are the same person.
Bununu !!!
You ever see that ad online? Most cringe thing I've ever seen lol
There's also John Sununu the elder. At this point, I'm sure NH Republicans are used to voting for the Sununu name without really worrying about any distinctions between them.
Not sure how it sweetens the deal to be mistaken for Chris Sununu!
Sabato moves 11 House races in our direction, almost all of them are incumbents they're moving from "Likely" to "Safe." https://x.com/kkondik/status/2037136574131929363/photo/1
Would say Poindexter and Knickerbocker are good underdogs to be rooting for, but I doubt Adam Miller or Don Leonard could give Carey a run for his money. OH-7 I feel is the embodiment of a Rust Belt seat that has slowly moved away from Democrats over time, and needs the right working class figure to save it.
Knickerbocker is a fucking awesome name for a candidate too, hell yeah
The big one was moving OH-1 Landsman from Toss Up to Lead D
This is the easierst changes for sites to make in a pro blue wave environment. D incumbents to safe.
Then leans to likely.
Then (if ever) you will start seeing them shifting red seats from safe to likely, likely to lean.
They hardly ever predict the wave first, that is risky. No one wants egg on their face. The last stage will be moving D seats out of tossup/tilt to at least lean D and R seats into tossup/til R from lean R. That is as far as they will go.
They all have different approaches, and they've been consistent across election cycles. Cook basically never moves an incumbent beyond toss-up and will leave a bunch of races in the Toss-Up category through Election Day. Sabato, Gonzales, and RRH will eliminate all toss-ups a couple days before Election Day to officially make a prediction in all races.
Gonzales also loves to move things in and out of his precious little "Tilt" categories (Lead D to Tilt D, for example) all throughout the cycle. I think it's just to generate clicks.
It's absurd and illogical not to consider an incumbent to ever be more likely to lose than win.
Lol at "precious little Tilt categories". I remember checking how they performed after one election. The general "tossup", "lean", and "likely" categories had good correlations with the results. Even if there was a skew one way or another, and one party won most the tossups, overperformed in other categories, etc., you could see the utility of the ratings. That was not the case for the tilts. Democrats did just as good or bad in the tilt Dem seats as they did in the tilt GOP seats. No added value.
Rs effort to re gerrymander the UT seat failed. https://x.com/Taniel/status/2037173169841193280?s=20
Democrats win in redistricting in CA
Republicans lose in redistricting in UT.
I really like the sound of this.
https://x.com/VoteNewDems/status/2036427306760089944
The NewDem Action Fund has endorsed Cait Conley (NY-17), Denise Powell (NE-02), Shannon Taylor (VA-01), Elaine Luria (VA-02) and Shannon Bird (CO-08). Their endorsement of Powell sets up another head-to-head with the CPC, which has endorsed Sen. John Cavanaugh though their PAC.
Luria is obviously a great get. The Nebraska's race is Cavanaugh's to lose. Rutinel makes for a more convincing/charismatic candidate in CO-08; Bird has bucked the party on more than a few occasions in the Legislature. Their endorsement of Conley is mind-boggling -- not voting in a midterm since 2007 reeks of laziness and unreliability!
OH-7: Sen. Bernie Sanders endorses Brian Poindexter
How old is Bernie now 90? No calls for him to step away?
On (3), what are the odds of dems/progressives getting back to a veto-override threshold in Vermont's legislature this cycle? It would be great if they at least put in place some kind of same-party appointment requirement. I guess that's a bit awkward in Sanders' case, but there are ways to make it work.
He's 84 and is in good shape physically, headlining the Fight Oligarchy rallies, constantly appearing at events, and fulfilling his duties as a Senator. Not sure what this has to do with his age, though.
Also, he has announced he will likely retire when he is up for re-election next in 2030. There's no calls for him to step away - he will do it willingly.
No calls for him to step away, he is fighting a lot harder and more energetically for what he believes than some Senators many decades his junior.
What good would it be to replace the Bernies with Brian Schatz types?
Bernie has endorsed Abdul El Sayed in the Michigan Democratic Senate Race. Dr Sayed has pledged to support Medicare for All if he wins. I have received multiple fund raising letters from the McMorrow Campaign in recent weeks including on by Senator Chris Murphy endorsing her. I am putting my small dollar donations towards Dr Sayed for the primary, one reason is he is so experienced in public health and we will need his expertise after the debockal of The Big Ugly Bill. Also IAPAC came out with hit ads against him equating him with being a terrorist! I am so sick and tired of Israel running ads against Progressive Candidates! I don't want Bibi running our politics and foreign policy!
While I would have preferred Bernie retire in 2024 purely for actuarial reasons, he hasn’t shown any signs of age issues compared to others his age, so I’ll (lightly) defend him on that front with the leading caveat
I would gently push back on the the "hasn't shown any signs of age issues", because he did have a heart attack in 2020. By all accounts he's fully recovered, of course, but it's still something.
So did Ben Ray Lujan, who turns 54 this year.
Luján had a stroke, not a heart attack. And yes, I understand that younger people can have heart attacks too. but the risk increases with age.
It's difficult to compare Vindman and Peltola. Peltola has led in every recent poll. Vindman has never led in a poll. In fact, the one Florida poll that polled both Vindman and Nixon against Moody found a negligible difference; Vindman was behind by 1% less than Nixon, but the 1% fell on Moody's side, not the democratic side, showing it possibly is a rounding difference. Alaskan media is undoubtedly much less expensive than Florida, so the cash advantage is less pronounced. And Peltola has won statewide in Alaska twice. Vindman has never run for office. I like them both. But Peltola has a much better chance and any financial disadvantage is much less likely to affect the race.
I don't think they're saying that Peltola and Vindman are similar or have an equal chance of winning, just that they're both high profile candidates about to finish their first fundraising quarters.
The post lumped Peltola and Vindman together and then had a separate paragraph about Minnesota.