Hello all! I have returned from my month-long hiatus. Minus 2 comments I made in response to what I felt were serious matters, that is -- I do apologize to the community and David, Jeff, and the admins if posting them at all broke any trust. In hindsight I probably should not have posted them.
Anyway, I would like to formally apologize to the community, and especially David, Jeff, and the admins for my litany of unhinged behavior and posts that led to me going on break. I became too emotional, and I let my own ideological bias cloud my judgement and behavior. It was wrong of me to do so, and it is something I will be seriously working on in the future. This also means that I may drop out again around Election Day, to avoid engaging in potentially not-constructive and obnoxious behavior, along with maintaining my own sanity in the process.
Not sure how to end this post, so I guess I'll just go back to posting.
Thank you for your humility and self awareness, but I still emphasize that you not go too hard on yourself in self reflection. That never ends up well.
City and State NY did a run-down of some of the competitive NY state legislative races in November. I have heard, both on here and on Bluesky, that state legislative races are among the best and most important to donate to, so I'll briefly run down the races mentioned and give donation links for each of the Dem candidates.
- NY-SD-7: An open seat in Long Island due to the retirement of State Sen. Jack Martins. The GOP is running Assemb. Jake Blumencranz, while the Democrats are running former NYC Councilman Rory Lancman. City and State NY says the race will be extremely competitive.
- NY-SD-38: A seat based in the Hudson Valley, incumbent GOP State Sen. Bill Weber is the target here. Weber has fended off past challenges by the State Senator he defeated, Elijah Reichlin-Melnick. Now, the Dems are running Nyack mayor Joe Rand, who is out-fundraising Weber.
- NY-SD-39: Another Hudson Valley seat. State Sen. Rob Rolison, a relatively moderate Republican, is the State Senator here. His past races have been close, and the Dems are running Dutchess County Legislator Lisa Kaul here, who has out-fundraised Rolison by quite a bit.
- NY-SD-43: This seat is based in the Capital Region. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jake Ashby, is in what is normally not a very competitive seat for the GOP. The Dems, however, smell an opportunity in a Dem-friendly year, and are backing NY state historian Devin Lander, who has out-fundraised Ashby.
- NY-SD-44: Another Capital Region seat. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jim Tedisco, is not especially vulnerable, but the Dems are nonetheless running immigration attorney Sarah Rogerson in an effort to flip the seat. Tedisco is currently out-fundraising Rogerson by a bit, so donations would help a lot here.
- NY-AD-16: This seat is based in Long Island, and its incumbent, Republican Daniel Norber, is leaving after flipping the seat and serving a single term. Democrats are running former State Senate candidate Kim Keiserman, while Republicans are running recent college graduate and North Hempstead town worker David Hassid. Keiserman is outraising Hassid by quite a bit.
- NY-AD-21: Another Long Island seat, but this time with a potentially vulnerable Dem incumbent. State Assemb. Judy Griffin, who flipped this seat from former Assemb. Brian Curran, lost a rematch to him, then flipped the seat again, is now facing Republican attorney Irene Villacci. Griffin has so far outfundraised Villacci by quite a bit.
-- I couldn't find a donation link that I could verify for Griffin. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-23: This seat is based in Queens, and incumbent Dem State Assemb. Stacey Pheffer-Amato, who barely won multiple past races, is retiring. Past GOP challenger Tom Sullivan is trying again for what is now an open seat, while the Dems are running past NYC Council candidate Pesach Osina. There is also a potential third-party candidate here in the form of Dem Mike Scala, who previously lost the primary in June to Osina. Sullivan has led in fundraising by quite a bit, so Osina really needs the help.
- NY-AD-46: This seat, based in Brooklyn, is going to be a rematch from 2024. Incumbent Assemb. Alec Brook-Krasny will once again face his 2024 opponent Chris McCreight. Brook-Krasny leads in fundraising, but not by much, so this is a good race to donate to.
- NY-AD-97: This seat is based in the Hudson Valley, and used to be Rep. Mike Lawler's seat before Democrat Aaron Wieder flipped it to Dem control in 2024, beating then Assemb. John McGowan. Wieder is now going up against Republican Rob Bonomolo, a construction union leader. There is also a third candidate on the Conservative Party line, Abraham Klein, who has faced accusations of being a plant. Wieder leads in fundraising, but not by much.
-- Once again, I could not find a donation link for this candidate. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-107: Another seat in the Capital Region. Incumbent GOP State Assemb. Scott Bendett faces a rematch with 2024 Dem opponent Chloe Pierce. While Bendett apparently had a large victory in 2024, Pierce ran a competitive campaign, and has out-fundraised Bendett so far.
- NY-AD-143: Based in Western New York, this competitive seat will host a race between GOP incumbent Patrick Chludzinski and Democratic opponent Ryan Taughrin. Taughrin lags behind in fundraising, so this could be a race where donating helps a lot.
Very happy about Markey and Koh winning their primaries. I’m not too surprised Neal and Lynch held on but this was their closest primaries to date. One or maybe both of them might get the message but I don’t think either of them, especially Neal, given his committee chairmanship ranking, will step aside in 2028 in a Presidential election. They might finally retire in 2030 though. I don’t think the usual groups like Justice Dems or David Hogg’s Super PAC or the DSA made either of those two races too targets but I could be wrong.
Obviously this has been the biggest year of incumbent Dems losing their primaries but so far, what’s the total number now? I had a feeling the anti-incumbency movement on the Democrats side had its limits. I can get why Moskowitz and DWS in Florida would hold given how their districts were drawn in Florida. It almost happened in one district in North Carolina and you’d think it would’ve happened in Massachusetts last night but credit to Neal and Lynch for finding ways to hold on. Even if their opponents were weak, they still didn’t show impressive results for incumbents.
Larson, Goldman, Espaillat, Thanedar, DeGette, then Green and Johnson to redistricting. So 7 for Democrats, then an additional 4 with Mills, Ogles, Massie and Crenshaw for Republicans.
⬆️ "North Carolina resident Ronald Hayes told NC Newsline this week that he was deceived by the Senate Leadership Fund, which he said had asked him to discuss the 2024 murder of his 23-year-old son Shemar on camera for what he believed would be an ad on the scourge of gun violence.'
I intend absolutely no criticism of the grieving family, but the idea of the GOP filming an ad on the "scourge of gun violence" should have been a dead giveaway that they were lying. The ONLY GOP response to gun violence is the sending "thoughts and prayers".
Hello all! I have returned from my month-long hiatus. Minus 2 comments I made in response to what I felt were serious matters, that is -- I do apologize to the community and David, Jeff, and the admins if posting them at all broke any trust. In hindsight I probably should not have posted them.
Anyway, I would like to formally apologize to the community, and especially David, Jeff, and the admins for my litany of unhinged behavior and posts that led to me going on break. I became too emotional, and I let my own ideological bias cloud my judgement and behavior. It was wrong of me to do so, and it is something I will be seriously working on in the future. This also means that I may drop out again around Election Day, to avoid engaging in potentially not-constructive and obnoxious behavior, along with maintaining my own sanity in the process.
Not sure how to end this post, so I guess I'll just go back to posting.
Thank you for your humility and self awareness, but I still emphasize that you not go too hard on yourself in self reflection. That never ends up well.
Agreed. Everyone has room for improvement but Techno00 you are talking like you were a lunatic poster, it wasn’t all that bad to me. Welcome back
We’re at the mercy of a $&@“ing Cargo Cult, relying on the magic of Willie Horton ads🤦♂️
Anyway, now that I'm back, I'm going to post an article from a couple months ago that I think is quite interesting.
NY State Legislature:
https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/07/early-look-state-legislative-races-our-radar-november/415030/
City and State NY did a run-down of some of the competitive NY state legislative races in November. I have heard, both on here and on Bluesky, that state legislative races are among the best and most important to donate to, so I'll briefly run down the races mentioned and give donation links for each of the Dem candidates.
- NY-SD-7: An open seat in Long Island due to the retirement of State Sen. Jack Martins. The GOP is running Assemb. Jake Blumencranz, while the Democrats are running former NYC Councilman Rory Lancman. City and State NY says the race will be extremely competitive.
-- Rory Lancman's donation link: https://secure.ngpvan.com/NrWgWAYakEa9qyY4KpWdUA2
- NY-SD-38: A seat based in the Hudson Valley, incumbent GOP State Sen. Bill Weber is the target here. Weber has fended off past challenges by the State Senator he defeated, Elijah Reichlin-Melnick. Now, the Dems are running Nyack mayor Joe Rand, who is out-fundraising Weber.
-- Joe Rand's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/joerand
- NY-SD-39: Another Hudson Valley seat. State Sen. Rob Rolison, a relatively moderate Republican, is the State Senator here. His past races have been close, and the Dems are running Dutchess County Legislator Lisa Kaul here, who has out-fundraised Rolison by quite a bit.
-- Lisa Kaul's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/lisa4ny
- NY-SD-43: This seat is based in the Capital Region. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jake Ashby, is in what is normally not a very competitive seat for the GOP. The Dems, however, smell an opportunity in a Dem-friendly year, and are backing NY state historian Devin Lander, who has out-fundraised Ashby.
-- Devin Lander's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/devin-lander-1
- NY-SD-44: Another Capital Region seat. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jim Tedisco, is not especially vulnerable, but the Dems are nonetheless running immigration attorney Sarah Rogerson in an effort to flip the seat. Tedisco is currently out-fundraising Rogerson by a bit, so donations would help a lot here.
-- Sarah Rogerson's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/sarahforsd44
- NY-AD-16: This seat is based in Long Island, and its incumbent, Republican Daniel Norber, is leaving after flipping the seat and serving a single term. Democrats are running former State Senate candidate Kim Keiserman, while Republicans are running recent college graduate and North Hempstead town worker David Hassid. Keiserman is outraising Hassid by quite a bit.
-- Kim Keiserman's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kim-keiserman-1?refcode=directory
- NY-AD-21: Another Long Island seat, but this time with a potentially vulnerable Dem incumbent. State Assemb. Judy Griffin, who flipped this seat from former Assemb. Brian Curran, lost a rematch to him, then flipped the seat again, is now facing Republican attorney Irene Villacci. Griffin has so far outfundraised Villacci by quite a bit.
-- I couldn't find a donation link that I could verify for Griffin. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-23: This seat is based in Queens, and incumbent Dem State Assemb. Stacey Pheffer-Amato, who barely won multiple past races, is retiring. Past GOP challenger Tom Sullivan is trying again for what is now an open seat, while the Dems are running past NYC Council candidate Pesach Osina. There is also a potential third-party candidate here in the form of Dem Mike Scala, who previously lost the primary in June to Osina. Sullivan has led in fundraising by quite a bit, so Osina really needs the help.
-- Osina's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pesach-osina-1
- NY-AD-46: This seat, based in Brooklyn, is going to be a rematch from 2024. Incumbent Assemb. Alec Brook-Krasny will once again face his 2024 opponent Chris McCreight. Brook-Krasny leads in fundraising, but not by much, so this is a good race to donate to.
-- McCreight's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/chris-mccreight-1
- NY-AD-97: This seat is based in the Hudson Valley, and used to be Rep. Mike Lawler's seat before Democrat Aaron Wieder flipped it to Dem control in 2024, beating then Assemb. John McGowan. Wieder is now going up against Republican Rob Bonomolo, a construction union leader. There is also a third candidate on the Conservative Party line, Abraham Klein, who has faced accusations of being a plant. Wieder leads in fundraising, but not by much.
-- Once again, I could not find a donation link for this candidate. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-107: Another seat in the Capital Region. Incumbent GOP State Assemb. Scott Bendett faces a rematch with 2024 Dem opponent Chloe Pierce. While Bendett apparently had a large victory in 2024, Pierce ran a competitive campaign, and has out-fundraised Bendett so far.
-- Pierce's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/chloepierceforny
- NY-AD-143: Based in Western New York, this competitive seat will host a race between GOP incumbent Patrick Chludzinski and Democratic opponent Ryan Taughrin. Taughrin lags behind in fundraising, so this could be a race where donating helps a lot.
-- Taughrin's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ryan-taughrin-kickoff
If anyone else in NY has any other state or other local races where donations would be welcome, feel free to reply with them.
Very happy about Markey and Koh winning their primaries. I’m not too surprised Neal and Lynch held on but this was their closest primaries to date. One or maybe both of them might get the message but I don’t think either of them, especially Neal, given his committee chairmanship ranking, will step aside in 2028 in a Presidential election. They might finally retire in 2030 though. I don’t think the usual groups like Justice Dems or David Hogg’s Super PAC or the DSA made either of those two races too targets but I could be wrong.
Obviously this has been the biggest year of incumbent Dems losing their primaries but so far, what’s the total number now? I had a feeling the anti-incumbency movement on the Democrats side had its limits. I can get why Moskowitz and DWS in Florida would hold given how their districts were drawn in Florida. It almost happened in one district in North Carolina and you’d think it would’ve happened in Massachusetts last night but credit to Neal and Lynch for finding ways to hold on. Even if their opponents were weak, they still didn’t show impressive results for incumbents.
Larson, Goldman, Espaillat, Thanedar, DeGette, then Green and Johnson to redistricting. So 7 for Democrats, then an additional 4 with Mills, Ogles, Massie and Crenshaw for Republicans.
Numbers from my personal tracker:
Dems - 5
Diana DeGette CO-1
John Larson CT-1
Shri Thanedar MI-13
Dan Goldman NY-10
Adriano Espaillat NY-13
This isn’t included Al Green or Julie Johnson who had to run in new areas due to redirecting. It’s 7 if you include them.
For the GOP it’s
Cory Mills FL-7
Thomas Massie KY-4
Andy Ogles TN-5
Dan Crenshaw TX-2
Funny for the GOP two of the ones that lost were too vocally crazy which cost them, and the other two were not supportive enough of Trump.
In the senate it’s just Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn who both suffered from not being big enough Trump supporters
The Club for Growth is seeking to weigh in on the Jim Banks supported candidate in the disputed Indiana Republican Senate primary:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/09/01/washington-group-weighs-in-for-trumps-candidate-in-3-vote-indiana-senate-primary/?utm_source=newsletters.indianacapitalchronicle.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=national-conservative-group-wants-to-weigh-in-on-state-recount&_bhlid=dc4ebb5f637c3db37ebf988fcb85a18d73ed4c08
It's not just about who is the Republican candidate, it is about whether every vote should be counted in Indiana elections.
I know very little about TX congressional seats but if TX 35 is tied for GOv and Sen when it was Trump +10 in 2024 then the Rs seem to be hurting https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2095143476681650455?s=20
⬆️ "North Carolina resident Ronald Hayes told NC Newsline this week that he was deceived by the Senate Leadership Fund, which he said had asked him to discuss the 2024 murder of his 23-year-old son Shemar on camera for what he believed would be an ad on the scourge of gun violence.'
I intend absolutely no criticism of the grieving family, but the idea of the GOP filming an ad on the "scourge of gun violence" should have been a dead giveaway that they were lying. The ONLY GOP response to gun violence is the sending "thoughts and prayers".