Hello all! I have returned from my month-long hiatus. Minus 2 comments I made in response to what I felt were serious matters, that is -- I do apologize to the community and David, Jeff, and the admins if posting them at all broke any trust. In hindsight I probably should not have posted them.
Anyway, I would like to formally apologize to the community, and especially David, Jeff, and the admins for my litany of unhinged behavior and posts that led to me going on break. I became too emotional, and I let my own ideological bias cloud my judgement and behavior. It was wrong of me to do so, and it is something I will be seriously working on in the future. This also means that I may drop out again around Election Day, to avoid engaging in potentially not-constructive and obnoxious behavior, along with maintaining my own sanity in the process.
Not sure how to end this post, so I guess I'll just go back to posting.
Thank you for your humility and self awareness, but I still emphasize that you not go too hard on yourself in self reflection. That never ends up well.
Honestly same, I think you might be being a bit too hard on yourself Techno. Obviously breaks are still beneficial, but I have no memory of your posting being "unhinged".
Trust me, we’ve all been there. 15 years ago on this platform that was me. It’s so wonderful that you have the ability to self examine — and Catch It,Check It, and Change It! Glad to have you back!
City and State NY did a run-down of some of the competitive NY state legislative races in November. I have heard, both on here and on Bluesky, that state legislative races are among the best and most important to donate to, so I'll briefly run down the races mentioned and give donation links for each of the Dem candidates.
- NY-SD-7: An open seat in Long Island due to the retirement of State Sen. Jack Martins. The GOP is running Assemb. Jake Blumencranz, while the Democrats are running former NYC Councilman Rory Lancman. City and State NY says the race will be extremely competitive.
- NY-SD-38: A seat based in the Hudson Valley, incumbent GOP State Sen. Bill Weber is the target here. Weber has fended off past challenges by the State Senator he defeated, Elijah Reichlin-Melnick. Now, the Dems are running Nyack mayor Joe Rand, who is out-fundraising Weber.
- NY-SD-39: Another Hudson Valley seat. State Sen. Rob Rolison, a relatively moderate Republican, is the State Senator here. His past races have been close, and the Dems are running Dutchess County Legislator Lisa Kaul here, who has out-fundraised Rolison by quite a bit.
- NY-SD-43: This seat is based in the Capital Region. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jake Ashby, is in what is normally not a very competitive seat for the GOP. The Dems, however, smell an opportunity in a Dem-friendly year, and are backing NY state historian Devin Lander, who has out-fundraised Ashby.
- NY-SD-44: Another Capital Region seat. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jim Tedisco, is not especially vulnerable, but the Dems are nonetheless running immigration attorney Sarah Rogerson in an effort to flip the seat. Tedisco is currently out-fundraising Rogerson by a bit, so donations would help a lot here.
- NY-AD-16: This seat is based in Long Island, and its incumbent, Republican Daniel Norber, is leaving after flipping the seat and serving a single term. Democrats are running former State Senate candidate Kim Keiserman, while Republicans are running recent college graduate and North Hempstead town worker David Hassid. Keiserman is outraising Hassid by quite a bit.
- NY-AD-21: Another Long Island seat, but this time with a potentially vulnerable Dem incumbent. State Assemb. Judy Griffin, who flipped this seat from former Assemb. Brian Curran, lost a rematch to him, then flipped the seat again, is now facing Republican attorney Irene Villacci. Griffin has so far outfundraised Villacci by quite a bit.
-- I couldn't find a donation link that I could verify for Griffin. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-23: This seat is based in Queens, and incumbent Dem State Assemb. Stacey Pheffer-Amato, who barely won multiple past races, is retiring. Past GOP challenger Tom Sullivan is trying again for what is now an open seat, while the Dems are running past NYC Council candidate Pesach Osina. There is also a potential third-party candidate here in the form of Dem Mike Scala, who previously lost the primary in June to Osina. Sullivan has led in fundraising by quite a bit, so Osina really needs the help.
- NY-AD-46: This seat, based in Brooklyn, is going to be a rematch from 2024. Incumbent Assemb. Alec Brook-Krasny will once again face his 2024 opponent Chris McCreight. Brook-Krasny leads in fundraising, but not by much, so this is a good race to donate to.
- NY-AD-97: This seat is based in the Hudson Valley, and used to be Rep. Mike Lawler's seat before Democrat Aaron Wieder flipped it to Dem control in 2024, beating then Assemb. John McGowan. Wieder is now going up against Republican Rob Bonomolo, a construction union leader. There is also a third candidate on the Conservative Party line, Abraham Klein, who has faced accusations of being a plant. Wieder leads in fundraising, but not by much.
-- Once again, I could not find a donation link for this candidate. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-107: Another seat in the Capital Region. Incumbent GOP State Assemb. Scott Bendett faces a rematch with 2024 Dem opponent Chloe Pierce. While Bendett apparently had a large victory in 2024, Pierce ran a competitive campaign, and has out-fundraised Bendett so far.
- NY-AD-143: Based in Western New York, this competitive seat will host a race between GOP incumbent Patrick Chludzinski and Democratic opponent Ryan Taughrin. Taughrin lags behind in fundraising, so this could be a race where donating helps a lot.
This is extremely constructive commentary---TRULY down ballot IS absolutely where you get most bang for the buck and this kind of analysis of specific races is something I'd actively encourage fellow posters to do as opposed to just pontificating on this or that. Based on 2024 presidential results(only one measurement of course) I think your assessment of SD-44 is a little pessimistic & your assessment of SD-38 is a little too optimistic(though the Orthodox Jewish communities there can be quite swingy and tend to vote en bloc, so maybe). Welcome back! And next time you get upset by a fellow commenter, remember everything here of course matters, but not THAT much. ;>)
I forgot he was still in office, 17 years after that became a SSP meme during his failed congressional bid, which he was probably expected to win initially.
A flip is probably unlikely but give Sarah Rogerson credit for having high, high hopes for a living. For Democratic challengers in general, don't give up, it's a little complicated, and stay up on that rise.
Thanks. One of the reasons I posted this was because the NY Dems lost their State Senate supermajority in 2024, and getting it back/adding to our Assembly count would most likely absolutely help us redistrict our congressional map to fight back against the GOP gerrymanders in 2028.
City and State NY is actually a really good site in general for following NY politics. I read it regularly, and I recommend following it if you're curious about the state of politics in NY.
Very happy about Markey and Koh winning their primaries. I’m not too surprised Neal and Lynch held on but this was their closest primaries to date. One or maybe both of them might get the message but I don’t think either of them, especially Neal, given his committee chairmanship ranking, will step aside in 2028 in a Presidential election. They might finally retire in 2030 though. I don’t think the usual groups like Justice Dems or David Hogg’s Super PAC or the DSA made either of those two races too targets but I could be wrong.
Obviously this has been the biggest year of incumbent Dems losing their primaries but so far, what’s the total number now? I had a feeling the anti-incumbency movement on the Democrats side had its limits. I can get why Moskowitz and DWS in Florida would hold given how their districts were drawn in Florida. It almost happened in one district in North Carolina and you’d think it would’ve happened in Massachusetts last night but credit to Neal and Lynch for finding ways to hold on. Even if their opponents were weak, they still didn’t show impressive results for incumbents.
Larson, Goldman, Espaillat, Thanedar, DeGette, then Green and Johnson to redistricting. So 7 for Democrats, then an additional 4 with Mills, Ogles, Massie and Crenshaw for Republicans.
Maybe but if I'm reading that Matsui poll correctly, it's implying 40% undecided in a two-person election involving a long-time Representative. That seems...not realistic.
I could see a lot of Republicans being split between choosing the slightly more moderate option (Matsui) or sticking it to the Democratic establishment (Vang). Republicans generally get about 40% in that district, so that would somewhat track.
This seat is majority Hispanic, so it's probably expected to swing further to the left than the state as a whole, but not good for Republicans, either. The twitter account also reversed the party symbols for Garcia and De La Cruz though, lol.
⬆️ "North Carolina resident Ronald Hayes told NC Newsline this week that he was deceived by the Senate Leadership Fund, which he said had asked him to discuss the 2024 murder of his 23-year-old son Shemar on camera for what he believed would be an ad on the scourge of gun violence.'
I intend absolutely no criticism of the grieving family, but the idea of the GOP filming an ad on the "scourge of gun violence" should have been a dead giveaway that they were lying. The ONLY GOP response to gun violence is the sending "thoughts and prayers".
Agreed. My understanding from his quotes was that he thought the filmmakers were independent, and he called back to clarify that.
I don't see Hayes or the family in Ohio that Husted is using against their will cutting ads for Cooper/Brown, as that just exacerbates the pain. And if I was Cooper/Brown I wouldn't ask them to, but I would contact them with sympathy so that if they got angry enough and wanted to engage w the D side, then the door would be open.
They’re doing it again! Larry Sabato’s team is the most honest broker among the big DC race raters, but they still can’t fathom hedging elections in the Dems’ favor, only the GOP:
If they had to choose a winner among all the Senate tossups, they go with Brown in OH but Collins in ME. I just can’t imagine that happening considering the partisan lean of those states. In this environment, they’re both Dem flips.
Very reminiscent to 2022, when they just couldn’t believe that Dems would net a seat in the midterms, so they had Oz winning because a race “had to be lost somewhere” but had no specific seat they could point to.
Yes. I personally don’t see any scenario where Brown wins and Collins loses (if the environment can help Brown beat a non-controversial opponent in a state Trump won by 11 pts, Collins isn’t hanging on despite her personal brand). So it’s either 51 or 49 seats.
They still have Iowa at Lean R, which feels ridiculous in this political environment. Sure, Turek could lose, but the race is very likely in the margin of error right now.
I find this firm questionable. They just started doing polls in the US, and in their South Carolina poll they managed to get those results with registered voters, yet among Likely Voters the race suddenly shifts to 55%-42% in favor of Darline Graham? That's a 14 point shift. Also given how many polls have indicated that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote this year, you'd think it'd be the other way around atleast, with DG leading among registered voters but losing among those likely to vote.
Being in SC, I think this is the likely result of DGN's candidacy too. There are a lot of pro-business Rs that aren't strong MAGA here, and they don't seem enthused.
There's a major disconnect and gap between registered voters and likely voters. Color me biased, but I think too many prognosticators and pollsters are relying too heavily on 2024 still as a metric for 2026, which is a big mistake since the party in power changed since the last election and presidential elections are often very different to midterms, among other factors.
Maine's makes *slightly* more sense to me. I could see the broader electorate/population slightly/barely preferring Collins to Jackson, especially after the Platner fiasco (in the sense that Collins would be a more "stable" choice given how chaotic the lead-up to Jackson's nomination was), but overall still more disapproving of her and the Trump administration and thus not being likely to vote, compared to those who strongly disapprove of her/approve of Jackson. The shift is still wildly dramatic, *too* dramatic, but if it was a smaller shift (say Collins +1 to Jackson +4), I would say it's based in reality
The South Carolina shift is just pure confusion, though.
I decided to bite the bullet and at least pay monthly. I need the peace of mind and a way to talk to folks directly about current events, not least of all impending elections. I imagine I'll keep up the paid subscription until at least the end of November, maybe December and January if anything particularly interesting escalates or emerges in the news.
I have a question for David and Jeff. There is an Axios article I want to share that discusses divisions within the DSA. The problem is, it is primarily focused on Dem presidential primary talk. Could the article be posted/referenced if discussion was kept specifically on the non-presidential aspects of it, or is posting it in general not a good idea?
I sometimes click links but also think it's fine even to say "the article is mostly speculation about the 2028 presidential primaries that we don't discuss here, but..."
Hello all! I have returned from my month-long hiatus. Minus 2 comments I made in response to what I felt were serious matters, that is -- I do apologize to the community and David, Jeff, and the admins if posting them at all broke any trust. In hindsight I probably should not have posted them.
Anyway, I would like to formally apologize to the community, and especially David, Jeff, and the admins for my litany of unhinged behavior and posts that led to me going on break. I became too emotional, and I let my own ideological bias cloud my judgement and behavior. It was wrong of me to do so, and it is something I will be seriously working on in the future. This also means that I may drop out again around Election Day, to avoid engaging in potentially not-constructive and obnoxious behavior, along with maintaining my own sanity in the process.
Not sure how to end this post, so I guess I'll just go back to posting.
Thank you for your humility and self awareness, but I still emphasize that you not go too hard on yourself in self reflection. That never ends up well.
Agreed. Everyone has room for improvement but Techno00 you are talking like you were a lunatic poster, it wasn’t all that bad to me. Welcome back
I agree with you guys.
Honestly same, I think you might be being a bit too hard on yourself Techno. Obviously breaks are still beneficial, but I have no memory of your posting being "unhinged".
I have been told I'm too hard on myself, yes. I may have overreacted.
Thank you all for your kind words. I really do enjoy this community, and discussing politics here.
Trust me, we’ve all been there. 15 years ago on this platform that was me. It’s so wonderful that you have the ability to self examine — and Catch It,Check It, and Change It! Glad to have you back!
We’re at the mercy of a $&@“ing Cargo Cult, relying on the magic of Willie Horton ads🤦♂️
Anyway, now that I'm back, I'm going to post an article from a couple months ago that I think is quite interesting.
NY State Legislature:
https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/07/early-look-state-legislative-races-our-radar-november/415030/
City and State NY did a run-down of some of the competitive NY state legislative races in November. I have heard, both on here and on Bluesky, that state legislative races are among the best and most important to donate to, so I'll briefly run down the races mentioned and give donation links for each of the Dem candidates.
- NY-SD-7: An open seat in Long Island due to the retirement of State Sen. Jack Martins. The GOP is running Assemb. Jake Blumencranz, while the Democrats are running former NYC Councilman Rory Lancman. City and State NY says the race will be extremely competitive.
-- Rory Lancman's donation link: https://secure.ngpvan.com/NrWgWAYakEa9qyY4KpWdUA2
- NY-SD-38: A seat based in the Hudson Valley, incumbent GOP State Sen. Bill Weber is the target here. Weber has fended off past challenges by the State Senator he defeated, Elijah Reichlin-Melnick. Now, the Dems are running Nyack mayor Joe Rand, who is out-fundraising Weber.
-- Joe Rand's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/joerand
- NY-SD-39: Another Hudson Valley seat. State Sen. Rob Rolison, a relatively moderate Republican, is the State Senator here. His past races have been close, and the Dems are running Dutchess County Legislator Lisa Kaul here, who has out-fundraised Rolison by quite a bit.
-- Lisa Kaul's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/lisa4ny
- NY-SD-43: This seat is based in the Capital Region. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jake Ashby, is in what is normally not a very competitive seat for the GOP. The Dems, however, smell an opportunity in a Dem-friendly year, and are backing NY state historian Devin Lander, who has out-fundraised Ashby.
-- Devin Lander's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/devin-lander-1
- NY-SD-44: Another Capital Region seat. The GOP incumbent, State Sen. Jim Tedisco, is not especially vulnerable, but the Dems are nonetheless running immigration attorney Sarah Rogerson in an effort to flip the seat. Tedisco is currently out-fundraising Rogerson by a bit, so donations would help a lot here.
-- Sarah Rogerson's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/sarahforsd44
- NY-AD-16: This seat is based in Long Island, and its incumbent, Republican Daniel Norber, is leaving after flipping the seat and serving a single term. Democrats are running former State Senate candidate Kim Keiserman, while Republicans are running recent college graduate and North Hempstead town worker David Hassid. Keiserman is outraising Hassid by quite a bit.
-- Kim Keiserman's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/kim-keiserman-1?refcode=directory
- NY-AD-21: Another Long Island seat, but this time with a potentially vulnerable Dem incumbent. State Assemb. Judy Griffin, who flipped this seat from former Assemb. Brian Curran, lost a rematch to him, then flipped the seat again, is now facing Republican attorney Irene Villacci. Griffin has so far outfundraised Villacci by quite a bit.
-- I couldn't find a donation link that I could verify for Griffin. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-23: This seat is based in Queens, and incumbent Dem State Assemb. Stacey Pheffer-Amato, who barely won multiple past races, is retiring. Past GOP challenger Tom Sullivan is trying again for what is now an open seat, while the Dems are running past NYC Council candidate Pesach Osina. There is also a potential third-party candidate here in the form of Dem Mike Scala, who previously lost the primary in June to Osina. Sullivan has led in fundraising by quite a bit, so Osina really needs the help.
-- Osina's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/pesach-osina-1
- NY-AD-46: This seat, based in Brooklyn, is going to be a rematch from 2024. Incumbent Assemb. Alec Brook-Krasny will once again face his 2024 opponent Chris McCreight. Brook-Krasny leads in fundraising, but not by much, so this is a good race to donate to.
-- McCreight's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/chris-mccreight-1
- NY-AD-97: This seat is based in the Hudson Valley, and used to be Rep. Mike Lawler's seat before Democrat Aaron Wieder flipped it to Dem control in 2024, beating then Assemb. John McGowan. Wieder is now going up against Republican Rob Bonomolo, a construction union leader. There is also a third candidate on the Conservative Party line, Abraham Klein, who has faced accusations of being a plant. Wieder leads in fundraising, but not by much.
-- Once again, I could not find a donation link for this candidate. Feel free to provide one if you can find one.
- NY-AD-107: Another seat in the Capital Region. Incumbent GOP State Assemb. Scott Bendett faces a rematch with 2024 Dem opponent Chloe Pierce. While Bendett apparently had a large victory in 2024, Pierce ran a competitive campaign, and has out-fundraised Bendett so far.
-- Pierce's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/chloepierceforny
- NY-AD-143: Based in Western New York, this competitive seat will host a race between GOP incumbent Patrick Chludzinski and Democratic opponent Ryan Taughrin. Taughrin lags behind in fundraising, so this could be a race where donating helps a lot.
-- Taughrin's donation link: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/ryan-taughrin-kickoff
If anyone else in NY has any other state or other local races where donations would be welcome, feel free to reply with them.
This is extremely constructive commentary---TRULY down ballot IS absolutely where you get most bang for the buck and this kind of analysis of specific races is something I'd actively encourage fellow posters to do as opposed to just pontificating on this or that. Based on 2024 presidential results(only one measurement of course) I think your assessment of SD-44 is a little pessimistic & your assessment of SD-38 is a little too optimistic(though the Orthodox Jewish communities there can be quite swingy and tend to vote en bloc, so maybe). Welcome back! And next time you get upset by a fellow commenter, remember everything here of course matters, but not THAT much. ;>)
We cannot lose Panic! at Tedisco purely for the memes and nostalgia
I forgot he was still in office, 17 years after that became a SSP meme during his failed congressional bid, which he was probably expected to win initially.
A flip is probably unlikely but give Sarah Rogerson credit for having high, high hopes for a living. For Democratic challengers in general, don't give up, it's a little complicated, and stay up on that rise.
Oops meant to reply to this comment!
Thanks. One of the reasons I posted this was because the NY Dems lost their State Senate supermajority in 2024, and getting it back/adding to our Assembly count would most likely absolutely help us redistrict our congressional map to fight back against the GOP gerrymanders in 2028.
City and State NY is actually a really good site in general for following NY politics. I read it regularly, and I recommend following it if you're curious about the state of politics in NY.
Agreed, they do a great job and it's not paywalled which is nice
You beat me to it! 😆
Very happy about Markey and Koh winning their primaries. I’m not too surprised Neal and Lynch held on but this was their closest primaries to date. One or maybe both of them might get the message but I don’t think either of them, especially Neal, given his committee chairmanship ranking, will step aside in 2028 in a Presidential election. They might finally retire in 2030 though. I don’t think the usual groups like Justice Dems or David Hogg’s Super PAC or the DSA made either of those two races too targets but I could be wrong.
Obviously this has been the biggest year of incumbent Dems losing their primaries but so far, what’s the total number now? I had a feeling the anti-incumbency movement on the Democrats side had its limits. I can get why Moskowitz and DWS in Florida would hold given how their districts were drawn in Florida. It almost happened in one district in North Carolina and you’d think it would’ve happened in Massachusetts last night but credit to Neal and Lynch for finding ways to hold on. Even if their opponents were weak, they still didn’t show impressive results for incumbents.
Larson, Goldman, Espaillat, Thanedar, DeGette, then Green and Johnson to redistricting. So 7 for Democrats, then an additional 4 with Mills, Ogles, Massie and Crenshaw for Republicans.
Numbers from my personal tracker:
Dems - 5
Diana DeGette CO-1
John Larson CT-1
Shri Thanedar MI-13
Dan Goldman NY-10
Adriano Espaillat NY-13
This isn’t included Al Green or Julie Johnson who had to run in new areas due to redirecting. It’s 7 if you include them.
For the GOP it’s
Cory Mills FL-7
Thomas Massie KY-4
Andy Ogles TN-5
Dan Crenshaw TX-2
Funny for the GOP two of the ones that lost were too vocally crazy which cost them, and the other two were not supportive enough of Trump.
In the senate it’s just Bill Cassidy and John Cornyn who both suffered from not being big enough Trump supporters
Also I bet Matsui and Thompson lose (to other Dems in a top-two)
And maybe Jimmy Gomez
Gomez losing seems a lot more likely than Thompson right now, yeah
Maybe but if I'm reading that Matsui poll correctly, it's implying 40% undecided in a two-person election involving a long-time Representative. That seems...not realistic.
I could see a lot of Republicans being split between choosing the slightly more moderate option (Matsui) or sticking it to the Democratic establishment (Vang). Republicans generally get about 40% in that district, so that would somewhat track.
The Club for Growth is seeking to weigh in on the Jim Banks supported candidate in the disputed Indiana Republican State Senate primary:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/09/01/washington-group-weighs-in-for-trumps-candidate-in-3-vote-indiana-senate-primary/?utm_source=newsletters.indianacapitalchronicle.com&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=national-conservative-group-wants-to-weigh-in-on-state-recount&_bhlid=dc4ebb5f637c3db37ebf988fcb85a18d73ed4c08
It's not just about who is the Republican candidate, it is about whether every vote should be counted in Indiana elections.
This is for an Indiana state senate Republican nomination, not U.S. Senate.
I have clarified my comment. Thank you.
Indiana doesn't have a U.S. Senate election this year, but yes, accuracy is important!
I know very little about TX congressional seats but if TX 35 is tied for GOv and Sen when it was Trump +10 in 2024 then the Rs seem to be hurting https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2095143476681650455?s=20
This seat is majority Hispanic, so it's probably expected to swing further to the left than the state as a whole, but not good for Republicans, either. The twitter account also reversed the party symbols for Garcia and De La Cruz though, lol.
⬆️ "North Carolina resident Ronald Hayes told NC Newsline this week that he was deceived by the Senate Leadership Fund, which he said had asked him to discuss the 2024 murder of his 23-year-old son Shemar on camera for what he believed would be an ad on the scourge of gun violence.'
I intend absolutely no criticism of the grieving family, but the idea of the GOP filming an ad on the "scourge of gun violence" should have been a dead giveaway that they were lying. The ONLY GOP response to gun violence is the sending "thoughts and prayers".
It's not clear he was even aware the group was GOP-aligned.
Agreed. My understanding from his quotes was that he thought the filmmakers were independent, and he called back to clarify that.
I don't see Hayes or the family in Ohio that Husted is using against their will cutting ads for Cooper/Brown, as that just exacerbates the pain. And if I was Cooper/Brown I wouldn't ask them to, but I would contact them with sympathy so that if they got angry enough and wanted to engage w the D side, then the door would be open.
They’re doing it again! Larry Sabato’s team is the most honest broker among the big DC race raters, but they still can’t fathom hedging elections in the Dems’ favor, only the GOP:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-senate-at-labor-day-our-best-guess-on-the-toss-ups/
If they had to choose a winner among all the Senate tossups, they go with Brown in OH but Collins in ME. I just can’t imagine that happening considering the partisan lean of those states. In this environment, they’re both Dem flips.
Very reminiscent to 2022, when they just couldn’t believe that Dems would net a seat in the midterms, so they had Oz winning because a race “had to be lost somewhere” but had no specific seat they could point to.
So they see it, as of now, as 50-50.
Yes. I personally don’t see any scenario where Brown wins and Collins loses (if the environment can help Brown beat a non-controversial opponent in a state Trump won by 11 pts, Collins isn’t hanging on despite her personal brand). So it’s either 51 or 49 seats.
They still have Iowa at Lean R, which feels ridiculous in this political environment. Sure, Turek could lose, but the race is very likely in the margin of error right now.
I would rank their tossups in likely order of flip:
AK
ME
OH
MI
TX
You're pretty pessimistic about MI or TX or both.
That's flip, so if the top 3 flip then El Sayed holds on I think. If they stay GOP then AES is in trouble. I'll believe Blexas when I see it
It's looking promising. Talarico seems stronger than Beto was.
Any environment where Susan Collins finds a way to win re-election is an environment where Democrats have an incredibly disappointing November.
https://abcnews.com/US/florida-remove-flock-cameras-state-highway-roads/story?id=136118376
Flock cameras were removed on highways in...Florida?
Privacy concerns and anti-surveillance attitudes are not always or necessarily partisan issues, thank goodness.
New Alaska poll. Basically the result of the primary with all the parties lining up as expected:
Alaska Survey Research poll | 8/20-8/23 LV
US Senate Alaska 2026
Final Round
🟦Mary Peltola 50.6% (-0.2)
🟥Dan Sullivan 49.4% [incumbent] (+0.2)
If have a feeling Alaska is going to be the state that makes me puke come election day, if it's this close.
Eday... or the weeks after waiting for ballots and rankings
I already feel nauseous!
Registered voters, to be clear!!
_________________________________________________
Abacus Data poll | 8/26-8/28 (registered voters)
US Senate races 2026
Iowa
🟦Josh Turek 52%
🟥Ashley Hinson 46%
—
Michigan
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 48%
🟥Mike Rogers 41%
—
Ohio
🟦Sherrod Brown 53%
🟥Jon Husted 43% (incumbent)
—
Maine
🟥Susan Collins 46% (incumbent)
🟦Troy Jackson 45%
—
South Carolina
🟦Annie Andrews 48%
🟥Darline Graham 47% (incumbent)
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2095148325871800593?s=20
I find this firm questionable. They just started doing polls in the US, and in their South Carolina poll they managed to get those results with registered voters, yet among Likely Voters the race suddenly shifts to 55%-42% in favor of Darline Graham? That's a 14 point shift. Also given how many polls have indicated that Democrats are more enthusiastic to vote this year, you'd think it'd be the other way around atleast, with DG leading among registered voters but losing among those likely to vote.
Yes, they’re a Canadian firm. And even their polling there, while not terrible, is not considered top tier.
Agree. Graham likely depresses turnout among GOP partisans, not juices it. Wouldn't surpise me if Trump goes to SC time or two
Being in SC, I think this is the likely result of DGN's candidacy too. There are a lot of pro-business Rs that aren't strong MAGA here, and they don't seem enthused.
There's a major disconnect and gap between registered voters and likely voters. Color me biased, but I think too many prognosticators and pollsters are relying too heavily on 2024 still as a metric for 2026, which is a big mistake since the party in power changed since the last election and presidential elections are often very different to midterms, among other factors.
Something is probably off with their methodology if they have Turek, Andrews, and Collins winning simultaneously.
In fairness, when you look at their Likely Voter results, it shifts to:
Iowa
🟦Josh Turek 54%
🟥Ashley Hinson 45%
—
Michigan
🟦Abdul El-Sayed 49%
🟥Mike Rogers 45%
—
Ohio
🟦Sherrod Brown 52%
🟥Jon Husted 46% (incumbent)
—
Maine
🟥Susan Collins 43% (incumbent)
🟦Troy Jackson 52%
—
South Carolina
🟦Annie Andrews 42%
🟥Darline Graham 55% (incumbent)
—
... what?
Those Maine and SC shifts are so weird.
Maine's makes *slightly* more sense to me. I could see the broader electorate/population slightly/barely preferring Collins to Jackson, especially after the Platner fiasco (in the sense that Collins would be a more "stable" choice given how chaotic the lead-up to Jackson's nomination was), but overall still more disapproving of her and the Trump administration and thus not being likely to vote, compared to those who strongly disapprove of her/approve of Jackson. The shift is still wildly dramatic, *too* dramatic, but if it was a smaller shift (say Collins +1 to Jackson +4), I would say it's based in reality
The South Carolina shift is just pure confusion, though.
the first 4 are spot on!!
I decided to bite the bullet and at least pay monthly. I need the peace of mind and a way to talk to folks directly about current events, not least of all impending elections. I imagine I'll keep up the paid subscription until at least the end of November, maybe December and January if anything particularly interesting escalates or emerges in the news.
I have a question for David and Jeff. There is an Axios article I want to share that discusses divisions within the DSA. The problem is, it is primarily focused on Dem presidential primary talk. Could the article be posted/referenced if discussion was kept specifically on the non-presidential aspects of it, or is posting it in general not a good idea?
Personally, I almost never click on links anyway. I would say if the headline / link text doesn't reference the primary, it's fine.
I sometimes click links but also think it's fine even to say "the article is mostly speculation about the 2028 presidential primaries that we don't discuss here, but..."