At first I was surprised to see Acton performing better than Brown, given the potential liabilities with Covid, but I think what's really happening is Ramaswamy is lagging Husted, because he's such a slimeball, and because Republican voters are mostly white supremacists these days.
2024 recall is Trump +7 which is interesting because Emerson had been almost always weighting to past presidential, hard to know if that means they’re weighting to a 2026 style electorate yet
A 4 month shift of net +11 for Acton in the Governor’s race and net +3 for Brown in the Senate race is a pretty big shift for a red state. Encouraging, but, I’ll believe Ohio will elect a Democrat only after they’re certified the winner. Fool me once and all that regarding OH polling doing Lucy and the football.
I generally agree with you but, in this environment, and with Ramaswamy being who he is, I'd characterize OH-GOV as Likely R, with a chance of possibly moving to Lean if the environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans.
I think both Brown and Acton can get to 47% of the vote. This is right around the same spot all statewide Dems (in partisan races) that weren’t Brown (who was an incumbent) topped out in 2018. Unfortunately I have a hard time seeing them get much above that even in a great Dem environment.
More shadiness from NC Republicans -- one state Senator delivered a letter to the primary challenger to the state Senate leader Phil Berger pleading for him not to run.
Given that I'd suspect Republican state legislators in NC of doing something shady when they wake up and take a piss, nevertheless, what is shady about writing to someone to urge them not to run against someone you support?
Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam will challenge incumbent Val Foushee in Nc-4, setting up a rematch of their highly contested 2022 race. Allam has day 1 endorsements from Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, Leaders We Deserve, and Bernie Sanders:
I wouldn't be too shocked either way given Foushee's age and the anger at incumbent Dems right now + progressive orgs seem to be united strongly behind Allam.
I don't know anything about either candidate in play here, but in a broad sense that doesn't strike me as a futile argument. Not a guaranteed success of course. But there's definitely a meaningful amount of hunger for generational change in the party. I'd assume it's not enough, but that doesn't mean it's certain to not be enough.
I deleted it but my point was that Foushee has a pretty left-wing record, won by 8 points with huge AIPAC/DMFI support but rejected their endorsements this year. The only argument for Allam will be generational change and anti-incumbency.
I live in her district and she's done a townhall or two (unlike the GOP delegation in our state). She's very responsive to her constituents.
Not sure whether I want to vote for her or Nida yet. We REALLY need a fighter in Congress -- and whomever wins the primary gets my vote in November whether it's the incumbent or Nida.
I don't think there's an obvious distinction between the two except on foreign policy, where Septimo leans more pro-Israel and Blake leans more pro-Palestine. Septimo will benefit from the district being heavily Latino, but Blake was the runner-up to Torres in the open 2020 primary.
Either way the both of them being in the race likely secures Torres another term unless he does something to severely damage his image, or the environment is more anti-incumbent than we anticipate.
I don't know if this is the best example of damaging his image but I have seen Ritchie Torres post quite often on LinkedIn and not even about anything related to business. His posts are your typical political posts that could be reposted on any other social media platform. I have seen Torres' posts because a colleague of mine, who happens to be Jewish, liked a lot of them.
I don't particularly have fondness for LinkedIn becoming a political platform and would like it to be as clear from politics as possible. I have LinkedIn connections who are Israeli, Persian, Tunisian and all around the world (even Nigeria) and appreciate it when LinkedIn posts are about business and only business. I do not think Torres or any politicians should be posting on LinkedIn if they cannot understand whatt he platform is meant for.
I believe President Obama did at one point post on LinkedIn but any of his posts were more inspirational and motivation-speaking driven. Anyone who is a politician can win more respect of those like Obama did by at least trying to unite people more. Business mindset operates better when there is less divisiveness.
All one needs to do is go to a local Chamber of Commerce and understand the attendees, including those who work at the local Chamber of Commerce. That’s what the vibe of LinkedIn should normally be.
Republicans are in denial and taking massive amounts of copium over their loss in Miami and that special election in Georgia.
There WILL be some close races and potential upsets next year in statewide races -- and potential power shifts on the state level as a result of the 2026 midterms.
My only disagreement is framing a Crockett vs Talarico primary in Texas as a tea party wave insurgent vs establishment pick. The establishment pick already left the race and both candidates would qualify as tea party esque challenges from the left. Both would be very similar on policy and only really differ in style over substance.
I agree there’s an insurgency of progressives fed up with losing to Republican candidates we never should lose to who aren’t willing to wait their turn, feel the urgency of what’s happening right now and know we need to throw out the old rule book in politics and do something different. It’s just not happening in the 2026 Texas Democratic primary specifically.
One could even argue the tea party of the left in that race has already won! Progressives have beaten the establishment in that fight because either Talarico or Crockett would be to the left of Allred who is much more moderate. I don’t fully agree on this framing of establishment vs progressive tea party of the left, but if you do, then that’s what has happened in that race.
Talarico is more moderate than Crockett on healthcare (public option vs M4A) and guns (assault weapons ban) while being more progressive on crypto, corporate donations, "1 percent vs 100 percent" Occupy/Bernie rhetoric etc.
Yeah but all I can see with Crockett is that she opens her big mouth and divides up the Hispanic community with partisan Democrat rhetoric that doesn’t help.
Whatever liberal vs moderate views Crockett and Talarico have is really irrelevant in this case. It’s all about tone.
The politico article on the DSCC is really interesting. To me, both Schumer/DSCC and the “Fight Club” Senators are more focused on power within the caucus instead of expanding the caucus.
When Rahm Emanuel became the chair of the DCCC after Bush won re-election in 2004, Rahm immediately focused on winning back the House and he recruited and fundraised for that goal. Which meant he targeted lean GOP and likely GOP seats. He didn’t wait for Hurricane Katrina to tank Bush’s popularity and set off Republican retirements. Now with the good results in VA & NJ, the DSCC is suddenly interested in Iowa and Texas. But those were always the majority making seats. Should have been their focus in January although with broadening the field to FL, SC, AK, MS, MT. All the seats that races that aren’t likely to provide a victory and so need attention from elected officials with big and small donor networks.
Democrats are winning Minnesota and Michigan unless something terrible happens nationally that has nothing to do with the candidates. That the DSCC and “Fight Club” Senators are getting involved there is a waste of time. It’s more about who owes favors to whom and perhaps the next leadership elections.
OH & NC were always going to get a lot of attention and money. Glad that A list candidates are running. But we didn’t need DSCC involvement to elevate those races and I suspect Brown and Cooper would have cleared the field without DSCC assistance.
The only state in which national party involvement has been positive is Maine. I don’t know if the DSCC already knew about the tattoo and Reddit comments when they started recruiting Mills (I suspect not), but it turns out having Mills as a choice will really strengthen whoever becomes the nominee.
It might be valuable for the DSCC (and other national organizations) to fund opposition research early. Would be good to know beforehand about Jay Jones joking about killing his political opponents and texting they wouldn’t learn unless their children died. Shouldn’t rely on underfunded primary campaigns to do that oppo research on their rivals. But this would only be useful if they did it on the major candidates and released it transparently for everyone to see.
I don't how the DSCC would've ever found about private texts Jay Jones sent to another individual until that individual shared them, and Platner was off the radar until he entered, so it wasn't like he was a longtime public figure researchers would be tracking. But I agree with the rest of your post.
I don’t think it would solve all problems. Just thinking about how I would want our national organizations to be involved in elections. They could be useful if they aimed to fill gaps that by nature individual campaigns won’t fill in a single cycle.
Maybe the National Democratic Attorneys General association wouldn’t have found out about those specific texts. (Although if he only sent stuff like that to one Republican colleague, I would be surprised.) As far as Platner, I think they got lucky because they wanted Mills and therefore did the opposition research to help her win.
Voters did not really have a say. They could choice the AG who abused his power already and supported the lie that Trump won in 2020 or they could support the candidate that joked about shooting a Republican colleague and stated it would be good if that colleague’s children died so he would change his views.
That Republicans have said worse is not the point. We should hold our leaders to a high standard even if they are Democrats. In fact, especially if they are Democrats because we need to convince 20% more of the country* that Democrats are worth electing or at least acceptable choices if we want 1) legislate on our priorities and 2) hold this administration and Congress accountable for their law breaking and unconstitutional actions.
*approximately what it take to win closer to 60 Senate seats
In an era of increasing political violence, why would we tolerate Jones’s statements?
He won because he’s not a Republican and his opponent was an election denier. He wouldn’t have won the primary if he was honest and he put the whole ticket at risk. Who knows how it would have gone if the government wasn’t shutdown because Republicans wouldn’t compromise on health care.
Virginia has a AG who no one has a reason to trust. Bad for Virginia and bad for Democrats.
We don't have to like what he texted, and I don't, but the matter was litigated in an election campaign that just finished. It wouldn't be more respectful of the people to try to pressure him to resign now and require a special election that will have way lower turnout. Only if something else serious comes out would there be a good reason to pressure him to resign.
As critical of Rahm Emanuel as I have been, I cannot deny that he’s never been afraid to go after the GOP and make counter messaging accordingly. And he had plenty of spine as DCCC Chair even while I was not happy with his fighting with Howard Dean when he was DNC Chair.
Emanuel also had the social security privatization agenda by President Bush to work with, which came well before Hurricane Katrina. I’m sure the DCCC had plenty to work with in this regard.
Bush became a lame duck POTUS but this did not start with Katrina. Emanuel knew this.
Emanuel say a pathway and I’m sure social security was a big piece of it. The circumstances of the 2004 and 2024 elections from the standpoint of Democratic disappoint weren’t that different. It was a dark time in January 2004. And Emanuel’s response was “f*** this, we are f***ing taking back the House. Open your f***ing checkbook.” And to potential recruits, “I will hound you every f***ing day for the rest of your life or you can be represent your district in Congress, what you say we f***ing beat some a** together?”
This time the DSCC response was “oh no, we might lose Michigan if we don’t manipulate the primary.”
This despite Trump having just as many weaknesses in January as Bush did in early 2005. Tariff and tax cuts for the rich promises specifically.
You’re right that Emanuel fighting with Dean over 50 state strategy was terrible. Got to separate those responsible for winning the next cycle from those responsible for building the party for the next decades.
I agree with you on the circumstances with the 2004 and 2024 although the economy was actually doing well during and after the 2004 election. No concerns over inflation and cost of living was by contrast lower, even in San Francisco, although it wasn’t cheap for a long time. Naturally, the subprime mortgage crisis started becoming a problem in 2006 and the Great Recession occurred later on in 2007.
Emanuel was a brilliant strategist but as a politician, not so much.
[Antoine Givens, a spokesperson for Craig’s campaign, said that “Minnesotans want a Senator who shows up, is honest, and stands up to special interests. Peggy Flanagan has done none of those things.” A Flanagan spokesperson responded by emphasizing her decision not to accept corporate PAC money and touting her campaign schedule across the state.]
Well, as it turns out, Angie Craig happens to have decent record on influences of money on politicians.
I can see the angle she is going with here although if Peggy Flanagan becomes the Democratic Senate Nominee, naturally Craig will endorse her and be on her side in the general election.
Limbaugh tried keeping the Roe amendment off last year's ballot in MO right before the ballots were printed, only to be overruled by the MO Supreme Court.
Sigh. Former Rep. David Trone is challenging Rep. April McClain-Delaney in the Dem primary here. Unclear as to specifically why beyond generic “we need fighters” stuff.
Trone's total whine about Delaney's voting record and alleged ineffectiveness leads one to wonder what he would have done differently if still in the House (or for that matter Senate) and really, the answer is not much. He'd probably be effectively advocating for district interests and constitutent services--including flood aid for the red western part of the district that Trump denied--but Delaney's done the same and there's not much reason to believe he would have accomplished more. I admit I really didn't like Delaney's vote for the resolution on the alleged evils of socialism, but that's a meaningless resolution that isn't worth getting angry about, and it would be a weird issue for a megamillionaire private businessman to emphasize. Same for Laken Riley which probably isn't the deal killer Trone evidently thinks it is.
Meanwhile, of the district, the Washington Post writes this: "Democrats have won that Western Maryland district by the smallest of margins since taking the seat after redistricting made it more favorable in 2012. " Leaving aside the surprise of those of us in Gaithersburg and Germantown at finding we're in "Western Maryland" (which increasingly doesn't even accurately describe Frederick), they should have done some more research into the election results. Trone last won it in 2022 by nine points and Delaney in 2024 by seven, which are not the "smallest of margins". Since 2012 only 2014 was really close, and that was the polar opposite of what 2026 is likely to be (which likely keeps it off the table in the general against either Democrat.)
My wife is a Marylander from near Annapolis and I've never understood the local references to geography. Apparently anything west of Baltimore is western Maryland, even the former W. Maryland College which is between Baltimore and DC (though north). Then there's the whole eastern shore bit with the Chesapeake, but apparently no term for the bit of Maryland on the Atlantic (I guess it's all Ocean City). I'm not sure anyone on the Western Shore, south of Annapolis in the eastern half of the state even know that Hancock or Cumberland are part of Maryland.
That said, I'm from the part of the Midwest that is in the eastern half of the US, but at least we have Mid attached, as in middle. (Tbh, much of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois are mid.)
I find it really hard to care. Both of them are bland and uninspiring, and both of them have used their personal wealth and connections to buy a seat in Congress. I'd be happy to see both disappear.
The other challengers weren't especially progressive, or at least maybe not enough to satisfy those who want a Squad or DSA type in the seat; such a nominee might have put it at serious risk in the general. (A GOP win would probably have been one term-and-out, but we don't even want that.) Nor were any other Democratic candidates notably more conservative than the winner.
Delaney's strongest challenger was Del. Joe Vogel, who came off as somewhat more progressive, though that may have been a matter of style or image rather than substance. Some commentators thought that he might well have lost the general if nominated; my guess is he would have won but by a narrower margin. He's running for state HoD reelection (in my district.)
Not all progressives are Squad or DSA. I am one and I don't share their politics. Some middle of the line progressives would be Jamie Raskin, Andy Kim and Chris Deluzio.
This is probably quibbling over semantics, but I'd characterize those three (all of whom I like a lot) as standard issue liberal Democrats well within the mainstream of the party.
Doesn't necessarily have to be someone more progressive. This was a single-digit seat for both Biden and Harris and could be lost in a strong red wave. A moderate is perfectly fine and probably a good idea if we want to hold the seat through tougher cycles. But I don't think Congress needs yet another rich narcissist who doesn't have any real hobbies.
I didn’t say progressive. I said better. Better doesn’t necessarily mean progressive - it can even just mean “didn’t purchase the seat”, as bpfish alluded to.
I think McClain-Delaney. She currently holds the seat, Trone bailed for a failed Senate run, and there's just not enough to distinguish himself from her or give voters a reason to switch.
Which explains my own likely vote for Delaney. Trone did fine in the House, but she's doing fine too, and there isn't enough difference between their views, voting records, or effectiveness to justify a change. (Those who want a more fiery progressive in the seat should remember that it is only D+3, though trending blue, and a farther-left candidate could put it at risk in some years if probably not in 2026.)
Trone's complaints about Delaney not "fighting" enough are either based around rather unimportant votes, or raise the question of "what would have been different if you were there instead of her?" (Probably nothing.)
Harris won it by about 6 points, and Delaney a fraction of a point more. Alsobrooks lost it in the Senate race, but would have also won similarly against anyone other than Larry Hogan.
And one of the goals of redistricting in MD ought to be to shore up this seat, not just to take out Andy Harris. We don't seem to be on track to do anything in MD, though.
I wonder what other issues might be seeing similar. Taxes and military in particular, maybe debt as well?
I remember in 2021's Virginia gubernatorial race. There was a point over that summer where we started getting attacked on education, and it seemed to be working. That's historically been such a reliably democratic issue that I knew something bad was happening when we saw it seem to flip away from us for the cycle.
And ICE act worse than criminals in many communities. They deserve to sent to the gulags as in the memes. I think I approve Trump on border security which is still positive in the AP poll while supporting abolishing ICE.
Rep. Al Green (D-TX) has introduced two articles of impeachment against President Trump. Article I pertains to President Trump calling for the execution of six Democratic lawmakers, all of whom are currently serving in the U.S. Senate or U.S. House of Representatives, and who previously served in the U.S. Military or in U.S. Intelligence communities. Article II describes how President Trump has fostered a political climate in which lawmakers and judges face threats of political violence and physical assault, has made threats and vituperative comments against federal judges, putting their safety and well-being at risk, and is undermining the independence of the judiciary. Green has invoked Rule IX to force a floor vote on the articles.
The 50-member Indiana state senate just convened to vote on the house-passed redistricting plan. To pass, the bill needs a majority of the whole--26 votes.
The ten Democrats will vote “no.” 16 Republicans have publicly supported the bill but one is not expected to be present (recent heart surgery). 12 Republicans have publicly opposed the bill. Thus, if people vote as they have stated, we know of 15 expected "yes” votes and 22 expected “no” votes.
Let's hope for 26. If we beat it 25-24, the bill can be brought up for another vote in January when the missing "yes" vote can attend. And if that result is 25-25, the LG can break the tie with a "yes."
Don't get me wrong, this is great news, but why aren't they supporting this? They're unlikely to be punished by voters for it so why bring the wrath of Trump and his minions down on themselves? Are they genuinely good government types? What am I missing here?
One of the State Senate Republicans may have been a Yes, but I believe has a daughter with Down syndrome, and after the Oval Office felon referred to Tim Walz as “retarded” (his word), the State Senator declared he was a No.
It’s nice to see asshole behavior get the comeuppance that it deserves.
Which races would you currently consider to be recruitment failures? Thinking of races where we could reasonably win if we had a stronger candidate, or where we're on track to nominate someone suboptimal for the district.
What has baffled me this whole time has been that Democrats have had to resort to getting Janet Mills to run in the Senate race when they couldn’t get someone else.
Neither 2014 Senate Candidate Shenna Bellows, currently a gubernatorial candidate nor Troy Jackson could be persuaded to run, which is maddening.
Bellows I get lost to Susan Collins in the 2014 Senate race by nearly 37% points. But she also got elected to the Maine State Senate and served for four years until she got elected as Secretary of State, which she’s been since 2021. Bellows has more stature than she did back in 2014 and in a different political environment working against Collins and the GOP.
Really? I was never aware that The Maine Legislature appoints the Secretary of State. I had presumed that the position like many state SoS was an elected job. At least I know in California this is the case.
In any event, Shenna Bellows has had experience in elected office. Even if the Maine SoS position is not from voters electing that person, she still possesses a certain degree of stature even if Troy Jackson by contrast has a longer history than Bellows in elected office and as a leader in state government.
Bellows is also just 50 years old and challenged Susan Collins when she was in her late 30’s. If age is a concern for many Mainers, they certainly wouldn’t have that problem if Bellows ran for the Senate again this year.
Eh, most of the other Texas races have decent enough, B-list options, who are capable of winning in a friendly environment. As for New Hampshire Governor, the bench is rather thin and the filing deadline is months away
ME and MI Senate I don't know if I'd call failures, but clusterf's. If Mills was going to run, she should've gotten in sooner. And the DSCC shouldn't have gotten behind one candidate in MI when there was another legit viable one. We generally have avoided this kind of stuff in years past.
I wouldn’t have expected as many people to stick with Platner after all his issues emerged, yet here we are. I think her decision to wait until October was defensible. She probably figured since she was the governor there was no threat to her in a primary.
MT-Sen There's a lot of veteran Democrats (Tester, Bullock, Tranel) who might be able to put up a fight in a strong enough environment. Instead, it looks like we're just gonna get some dudes.
Certainly although at the same time, we could use fresher faces who aren’t going to be establishment choices like Steve Bullock.
As long as MT Democrats don’t have another disaster of a situation as they did back in 2014 when Democratic Senate Nominee John Walsh was forced to end his candidacy due to plagiarism and Amanda Curtis had a short window to run her campaign, then I’d be interested to see how the Democratic Candidates emerge.
Ohio Emerson:
Husted 49 Brown 46
Acton 46 Ramaswamy 45
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/ohio-2026-poll-democrats-make-gains-in-races-for-governor-and-us-senate/
At first I was surprised to see Acton performing better than Brown, given the potential liabilities with Covid, but I think what's really happening is Ramaswamy is lagging Husted, because he's such a slimeball, and because Republican voters are mostly white supremacists these days.
If he loses, the second reason will be the decisive one.
Ramaswamy is also an obnoxious know-it-all little shit, and Husted's as bland as they come.
I still think Brown would have had a better chance of victory against Ramaswamy than Husted.
I mean, yeah, obviously Vivek was the weaker opponent by far. Brown is taking one for the team by going for the harder race.
I’d bet money on the latter.
Those are in play.
Emerson had Sherril losing (or it really close) in NJ and Behn within 2, so they have missed on both ends recently.
Though statewide was to the right.
Trump won OH by 11.
I should have noted it was Emerson and not bothered over-analyzing.
Both are competitive. Surprised to see Actin doing as well as Brown (both at 46). Vivek running behind Husted isn't surprising
2024 recall is Trump +7 which is interesting because Emerson had been almost always weighting to past presidential, hard to know if that means they’re weighting to a 2026 style electorate yet
OHIO POLL By Emerson (A)
SENATE
🟥 Jon Husted (inc): 49% [-1]
🟦 Sherrod Brown: 46% [+2]
——
GOVERNOR
🟦 Amy Acton: 46% [+7]
🟥 V. Ramaswamy: 45% [-4]
[+/- shift vs Aug]
——
Job Approval
Pres. Trump: 46-48 (-2)
Gov. DeWine: 26-45 (-19)
12/6-8 | 850 RV
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/1999133136467222941?s=20
More details of this poll in short.
Whoa when did DeWine's popularity tank so bad?
A 4 month shift of net +11 for Acton in the Governor’s race and net +3 for Brown in the Senate race is a pretty big shift for a red state. Encouraging, but, I’ll believe Ohio will elect a Democrat only after they’re certified the winner. Fool me once and all that regarding OH polling doing Lucy and the football.
I generally agree with you but, in this environment, and with Ramaswamy being who he is, I'd characterize OH-GOV as Likely R, with a chance of possibly moving to Lean if the environment continues to deteriorate for Republicans.
Are we talking about the same environment indicating a bluer year than 2018 and possibly on par with 2006? In what world is OH-Gov only Likely R?
The world where no Democrat not named Sherrod Brown has won a statewide legislative or executive branch election in Ohio since 2006.
Fortunately this environment seems “…possibly on par with 2006.”
That 46% is easy, it's getting the rest of the 4 points to win is hard
I think both Brown and Acton can get to 47% of the vote. This is right around the same spot all statewide Dems (in partisan races) that weren’t Brown (who was an incumbent) topped out in 2018. Unfortunately I have a hard time seeing them get much above that even in a great Dem environment.
I'm higher on Acton getting that last 2-3% than I am Brown just due to the anti-Indian racism we'll see from Republican voters.
If turnout really nosedives among MAGA voting blocs, it could get interesting.
I'm not saying that's likely, but it's also not impossible.
Or we can get our voters out - getting base voters out is a huge problem in Ohio.
Wow shocked to see year-round school isn't the selling point Ramaswamy thought it would be!
And also happy cryptobro and fossil fuel lobbyist Ryan ended up passing on the race. Acton is competitive.
More shadiness from NC Republicans -- one state Senator delivered a letter to the primary challenger to the state Senate leader Phil Berger pleading for him not to run.
https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/gop-legislator-urges-sheriff-not-to-challenge-nc-senate-leader-dec-2025/
Seems like they're not raking in as much money. And a bruising primary means less money to go around for legislative Rs facing competitive elections.
Given that I'd suspect Republican state legislators in NC of doing something shady when they wake up and take a piss, nevertheless, what is shady about writing to someone to urge them not to run against someone you support?
Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam will challenge incumbent Val Foushee in Nc-4, setting up a rematch of their highly contested 2022 race. Allam has day 1 endorsements from Justice Democrats, the Working Families Party, Leaders We Deserve, and Bernie Sanders:
https://x.com/NidaAllam/status/1999115842370306288
Foushee has a solidly progressive voting record and hasn't done anything to offend the Democrats in her district. I suspect she wins easily.
I wouldn't be too shocked either way given Foushee's age and the anger at incumbent Dems right now + progressive orgs seem to be united strongly behind Allam.
I don't know anything about either candidate in play here, but in a broad sense that doesn't strike me as a futile argument. Not a guaranteed success of course. But there's definitely a meaningful amount of hunger for generational change in the party. I'd assume it's not enough, but that doesn't mean it's certain to not be enough.
I deleted it but my point was that Foushee has a pretty left-wing record, won by 8 points with huge AIPAC/DMFI support but rejected their endorsements this year. The only argument for Allam will be generational change and anti-incumbency.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gPBdBrqVCbtuy7f1bjOdCDUzEv5RqbbU1yYAr3KoHYE
Congressional Left Tracker.
I don't see the need to have deleted your earlier comment, and now mine looks confusing without context.
I live in her district and she's done a townhall or two (unlike the GOP delegation in our state). She's very responsive to her constituents.
Not sure whether I want to vote for her or Nida yet. We REALLY need a fighter in Congress -- and whomever wins the primary gets my vote in November whether it's the incumbent or Nida.
AP-NORC poll gives Trump his lowest approval on handling of the economy ever— 31%. It also finds his overall job approval at 36%. https://apnews.com/article/trump-poll-approval-economy-immigration-inflation-crime-9e5bd096964990e040bc4bacd9fcac21
New York Assemblymember Amanda Septimo will challenge Ritchie Torres in Ny-15, risking a split vote among challengers:
https://x.com/AmandaSeptimo/status/1999090489119666630
Septimo is to Blake’s left, right?
And who do you think is a stronger candidate?
I don't think there's an obvious distinction between the two except on foreign policy, where Septimo leans more pro-Israel and Blake leans more pro-Palestine. Septimo will benefit from the district being heavily Latino, but Blake was the runner-up to Torres in the open 2020 primary.
Either way the both of them being in the race likely secures Torres another term unless he does something to severely damage his image, or the environment is more anti-incumbent than we anticipate.
I don't know if this is the best example of damaging his image but I have seen Ritchie Torres post quite often on LinkedIn and not even about anything related to business. His posts are your typical political posts that could be reposted on any other social media platform. I have seen Torres' posts because a colleague of mine, who happens to be Jewish, liked a lot of them.
I don't particularly have fondness for LinkedIn becoming a political platform and would like it to be as clear from politics as possible. I have LinkedIn connections who are Israeli, Persian, Tunisian and all around the world (even Nigeria) and appreciate it when LinkedIn posts are about business and only business. I do not think Torres or any politicians should be posting on LinkedIn if they cannot understand whatt he platform is meant for.
100% agree with this. LI is not the place for politics. Plus, Torres' posts there are bizarrely inflammatory and just plain weird.
I believe President Obama did at one point post on LinkedIn but any of his posts were more inspirational and motivation-speaking driven. Anyone who is a politician can win more respect of those like Obama did by at least trying to unite people more. Business mindset operates better when there is less divisiveness.
All one needs to do is go to a local Chamber of Commerce and understand the attendees, including those who work at the local Chamber of Commerce. That’s what the vibe of LinkedIn should normally be.
Some hopeful and chaotic headlines:
1. Miami gives Dems hopes for Florida midterm magic. But hurdles loom large
Democrats are still far behind on fundraising, voter registration and organizing.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/10/miami-democrats-florida-midterms-00685470
2. Democrats face messy primary fights as DSCC loses grip on candidates
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is triggering backlash among fellow Democrats for its interventions in various Senate races.
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/12/11/dscc-struggles-to-reign-in-messy-democratic-primaries-00686213
3. Dems face a Tea Party-style revolt in Texas and beyond
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/09/democrats-schumer-primaries-progressives-texas
4. How Minnesota reflects Democrats’ big divides
https://www.semafor.com/article/12/10/2025/how-minnesota-reflects-democrats-big-divides
5. Democrats warn their party may try to unravel any Paramount-Warner Bros. Discovery deal
https://www.semafor.com/article/12/10/2025/democrats-warn-their-party-may-try-to-unravel-any-paramount-warner-bros-discovery-deal
6. Influencer feuds trigger total MAGA meltdown
https://www.axios.com/2025/12/11/influencer-feuds-trigger-total-maga-meltdown
Axios and Politico can be unlocked writing any random fake email with random subdomain in the pop-up.
Republicans are in denial and taking massive amounts of copium over their loss in Miami and that special election in Georgia.
There WILL be some close races and potential upsets next year in statewide races -- and potential power shifts on the state level as a result of the 2026 midterms.
My only disagreement is framing a Crockett vs Talarico primary in Texas as a tea party wave insurgent vs establishment pick. The establishment pick already left the race and both candidates would qualify as tea party esque challenges from the left. Both would be very similar on policy and only really differ in style over substance.
I agree there’s an insurgency of progressives fed up with losing to Republican candidates we never should lose to who aren’t willing to wait their turn, feel the urgency of what’s happening right now and know we need to throw out the old rule book in politics and do something different. It’s just not happening in the 2026 Texas Democratic primary specifically.
One could even argue the tea party of the left in that race has already won! Progressives have beaten the establishment in that fight because either Talarico or Crockett would be to the left of Allred who is much more moderate. I don’t fully agree on this framing of establishment vs progressive tea party of the left, but if you do, then that’s what has happened in that race.
Talarico is more moderate than Crockett on healthcare (public option vs M4A) and guns (assault weapons ban) while being more progressive on crypto, corporate donations, "1 percent vs 100 percent" Occupy/Bernie rhetoric etc.
Yeah but all I can see with Crockett is that she opens her big mouth and divides up the Hispanic community with partisan Democrat rhetoric that doesn’t help.
Whatever liberal vs moderate views Crockett and Talarico have is really irrelevant in this case. It’s all about tone.
Crockett and Talarico differ in style much more than policy.
Wow, from these headlines, you'd think Democrats got wiped out (checks calendar) 6 weeks ago.
Politico gonna Politico.
When Democrats get back in power, one of their top items should be filing anti-trust actions against these gargantuan media monopolies.
The politico article on the DSCC is really interesting. To me, both Schumer/DSCC and the “Fight Club” Senators are more focused on power within the caucus instead of expanding the caucus.
When Rahm Emanuel became the chair of the DCCC after Bush won re-election in 2004, Rahm immediately focused on winning back the House and he recruited and fundraised for that goal. Which meant he targeted lean GOP and likely GOP seats. He didn’t wait for Hurricane Katrina to tank Bush’s popularity and set off Republican retirements. Now with the good results in VA & NJ, the DSCC is suddenly interested in Iowa and Texas. But those were always the majority making seats. Should have been their focus in January although with broadening the field to FL, SC, AK, MS, MT. All the seats that races that aren’t likely to provide a victory and so need attention from elected officials with big and small donor networks.
Democrats are winning Minnesota and Michigan unless something terrible happens nationally that has nothing to do with the candidates. That the DSCC and “Fight Club” Senators are getting involved there is a waste of time. It’s more about who owes favors to whom and perhaps the next leadership elections.
OH & NC were always going to get a lot of attention and money. Glad that A list candidates are running. But we didn’t need DSCC involvement to elevate those races and I suspect Brown and Cooper would have cleared the field without DSCC assistance.
The only state in which national party involvement has been positive is Maine. I don’t know if the DSCC already knew about the tattoo and Reddit comments when they started recruiting Mills (I suspect not), but it turns out having Mills as a choice will really strengthen whoever becomes the nominee.
It might be valuable for the DSCC (and other national organizations) to fund opposition research early. Would be good to know beforehand about Jay Jones joking about killing his political opponents and texting they wouldn’t learn unless their children died. Shouldn’t rely on underfunded primary campaigns to do that oppo research on their rivals. But this would only be useful if they did it on the major candidates and released it transparently for everyone to see.
I don't how the DSCC would've ever found about private texts Jay Jones sent to another individual until that individual shared them, and Platner was off the radar until he entered, so it wasn't like he was a longtime public figure researchers would be tracking. But I agree with the rest of your post.
I don’t think it would solve all problems. Just thinking about how I would want our national organizations to be involved in elections. They could be useful if they aimed to fill gaps that by nature individual campaigns won’t fill in a single cycle.
Maybe the National Democratic Attorneys General association wouldn’t have found out about those specific texts. (Although if he only sent stuff like that to one Republican colleague, I would be surprised.) As far as Platner, I think they got lucky because they wanted Mills and therefore did the opposition research to help her win.
Also, a state Attorney General race is not the DSCC's purview.
Jones won anyway, it should be noted. And rather handily.
To me, it isn’t just about wins and losses. What he texted was vile and should be disqualifying. I think Spanberger should ask Jones to resign.
The people had a say, and they gave their verdict by electing him. Republicans have said much worse.
Voters did not really have a say. They could choice the AG who abused his power already and supported the lie that Trump won in 2020 or they could support the candidate that joked about shooting a Republican colleague and stated it would be good if that colleague’s children died so he would change his views.
That Republicans have said worse is not the point. We should hold our leaders to a high standard even if they are Democrats. In fact, especially if they are Democrats because we need to convince 20% more of the country* that Democrats are worth electing or at least acceptable choices if we want 1) legislate on our priorities and 2) hold this administration and Congress accountable for their law breaking and unconstitutional actions.
*approximately what it take to win closer to 60 Senate seats
Or we can win 52-53 seats, primary Fetterman and nuke the Senate filibuster with 50 or 51 progressive votes.
He shouldn't be asked to resign about something he did previously after nevertheless winning the election.
Why not?
In an era of increasing political violence, why would we tolerate Jones’s statements?
He won because he’s not a Republican and his opponent was an election denier. He wouldn’t have won the primary if he was honest and he put the whole ticket at risk. Who knows how it would have gone if the government wasn’t shutdown because Republicans wouldn’t compromise on health care.
Virginia has a AG who no one has a reason to trust. Bad for Virginia and bad for Democrats.
We don't have to like what he texted, and I don't, but the matter was litigated in an election campaign that just finished. It wouldn't be more respectful of the people to try to pressure him to resign now and require a special election that will have way lower turnout. Only if something else serious comes out would there be a good reason to pressure him to resign.
As critical of Rahm Emanuel as I have been, I cannot deny that he’s never been afraid to go after the GOP and make counter messaging accordingly. And he had plenty of spine as DCCC Chair even while I was not happy with his fighting with Howard Dean when he was DNC Chair.
Emanuel also had the social security privatization agenda by President Bush to work with, which came well before Hurricane Katrina. I’m sure the DCCC had plenty to work with in this regard.
Bush became a lame duck POTUS but this did not start with Katrina. Emanuel knew this.
Emanuel say a pathway and I’m sure social security was a big piece of it. The circumstances of the 2004 and 2024 elections from the standpoint of Democratic disappoint weren’t that different. It was a dark time in January 2004. And Emanuel’s response was “f*** this, we are f***ing taking back the House. Open your f***ing checkbook.” And to potential recruits, “I will hound you every f***ing day for the rest of your life or you can be represent your district in Congress, what you say we f***ing beat some a** together?”
This time the DSCC response was “oh no, we might lose Michigan if we don’t manipulate the primary.”
This despite Trump having just as many weaknesses in January as Bush did in early 2005. Tariff and tax cuts for the rich promises specifically.
You’re right that Emanuel fighting with Dean over 50 state strategy was terrible. Got to separate those responsible for winning the next cycle from those responsible for building the party for the next decades.
I agree with you on the circumstances with the 2004 and 2024 although the economy was actually doing well during and after the 2004 election. No concerns over inflation and cost of living was by contrast lower, even in San Francisco, although it wasn’t cheap for a long time. Naturally, the subprime mortgage crisis started becoming a problem in 2006 and the Great Recession occurred later on in 2007.
Emanuel was a brilliant strategist but as a politician, not so much.
[Antoine Givens, a spokesperson for Craig’s campaign, said that “Minnesotans want a Senator who shows up, is honest, and stands up to special interests. Peggy Flanagan has done none of those things.” A Flanagan spokesperson responded by emphasizing her decision not to accept corporate PAC money and touting her campaign schedule across the state.]
This is wild.
Yes, she could have easily emphasized her roles in passing worker friendly bills.
Well, as it turns out, Angie Craig happens to have decent record on influences of money on politicians.
I can see the angle she is going with here although if Peggy Flanagan becomes the Democratic Senate Nominee, naturally Craig will endorse her and be on her side in the general election.
https://admin.endcitizensunited.org/candidates/angie-craig/
https://craig.house.gov/media/press-releases/rep-craig-reintroduces-legislation-clean-washington-prohibit-members-profiting
"Cole County Circuit Judge Christopher Limbaugh"
Rush's cousin.
Those SC Sen numbers are interesting, as are the OH Gov poll listed below.
Limbaugh tried keeping the Roe amendment off last year's ballot in MO right before the ballots were printed, only to be overruled by the MO Supreme Court.
MD-06:
https://www.thebanner.com/politics-power/state-government/david-trone-rep-mcclain-delaney-2026-democratic-primary-TQDQAWALGVDJTG75U4VOMNWFZE/
Sigh. Former Rep. David Trone is challenging Rep. April McClain-Delaney in the Dem primary here. Unclear as to specifically why beyond generic “we need fighters” stuff.
Because he has too much money to burn and an ego to boot
Trone's total whine about Delaney's voting record and alleged ineffectiveness leads one to wonder what he would have done differently if still in the House (or for that matter Senate) and really, the answer is not much. He'd probably be effectively advocating for district interests and constitutent services--including flood aid for the red western part of the district that Trump denied--but Delaney's done the same and there's not much reason to believe he would have accomplished more. I admit I really didn't like Delaney's vote for the resolution on the alleged evils of socialism, but that's a meaningless resolution that isn't worth getting angry about, and it would be a weird issue for a megamillionaire private businessman to emphasize. Same for Laken Riley which probably isn't the deal killer Trone evidently thinks it is.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2025/12/11/david-trone-congress-comeback-bid/
Meanwhile, of the district, the Washington Post writes this: "Democrats have won that Western Maryland district by the smallest of margins since taking the seat after redistricting made it more favorable in 2012. " Leaving aside the surprise of those of us in Gaithersburg and Germantown at finding we're in "Western Maryland" (which increasingly doesn't even accurately describe Frederick), they should have done some more research into the election results. Trone last won it in 2022 by nine points and Delaney in 2024 by seven, which are not the "smallest of margins". Since 2012 only 2014 was really close, and that was the polar opposite of what 2026 is likely to be (which likely keeps it off the table in the general against either Democrat.)
My wife is a Marylander from near Annapolis and I've never understood the local references to geography. Apparently anything west of Baltimore is western Maryland, even the former W. Maryland College which is between Baltimore and DC (though north). Then there's the whole eastern shore bit with the Chesapeake, but apparently no term for the bit of Maryland on the Atlantic (I guess it's all Ocean City). I'm not sure anyone on the Western Shore, south of Annapolis in the eastern half of the state even know that Hancock or Cumberland are part of Maryland.
That said, I'm from the part of the Midwest that is in the eastern half of the US, but at least we have Mid attached, as in middle. (Tbh, much of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois are mid.)
I find it really hard to care. Both of them are bland and uninspiring, and both of them have used their personal wealth and connections to buy a seat in Congress. I'd be happy to see both disappear.
Ditto. I wish there was someone better who could run, maybe as a primary challenger.
I don't think the district leans progressive. McClain Delaney won the primary by a plurality, were other challengers particularly progressive?
The other challengers weren't especially progressive, or at least maybe not enough to satisfy those who want a Squad or DSA type in the seat; such a nominee might have put it at serious risk in the general. (A GOP win would probably have been one term-and-out, but we don't even want that.) Nor were any other Democratic candidates notably more conservative than the winner.
Delaney's strongest challenger was Del. Joe Vogel, who came off as somewhat more progressive, though that may have been a matter of style or image rather than substance. Some commentators thought that he might well have lost the general if nominated; my guess is he would have won but by a narrower margin. He's running for state HoD reelection (in my district.)
Not all progressives are Squad or DSA. I am one and I don't share their politics. Some middle of the line progressives would be Jamie Raskin, Andy Kim and Chris Deluzio.
This is probably quibbling over semantics, but I'd characterize those three (all of whom I like a lot) as standard issue liberal Democrats well within the mainstream of the party.
Doesn't necessarily have to be someone more progressive. This was a single-digit seat for both Biden and Harris and could be lost in a strong red wave. A moderate is perfectly fine and probably a good idea if we want to hold the seat through tougher cycles. But I don't think Congress needs yet another rich narcissist who doesn't have any real hobbies.
I was saying progressive because I don’t see the reason behind the primary if there are no ideological differences or scandals.
I didn’t say progressive. I said better. Better doesn’t necessarily mean progressive - it can even just mean “didn’t purchase the seat”, as bpfish alluded to.
A big part of that district (Western Maryland or the "Maryland Panhandle") is essentially West Virginia.
So who do we think will win?
I think McClain-Delaney. She currently holds the seat, Trone bailed for a failed Senate run, and there's just not enough to distinguish himself from her or give voters a reason to switch.
Which explains my own likely vote for Delaney. Trone did fine in the House, but she's doing fine too, and there isn't enough difference between their views, voting records, or effectiveness to justify a change. (Those who want a more fiery progressive in the seat should remember that it is only D+3, though trending blue, and a farther-left candidate could put it at risk in some years if probably not in 2026.)
Trone's complaints about Delaney not "fighting" enough are either based around rather unimportant votes, or raise the question of "what would have been different if you were there instead of her?" (Probably nothing.)
Cook +3 is +6 in the results right.
Harris won it by about 6 points, and Delaney a fraction of a point more. Alsobrooks lost it in the Senate race, but would have also won similarly against anyone other than Larry Hogan.
Ohh.
And one of the goals of redistricting in MD ought to be to shore up this seat, not just to take out Andy Harris. We don't seem to be on track to do anything in MD, though.
The media wanted Larry Hogan to win that thing SO. DAMN. BADLY.
I always felt that—unlike one Vanessa Huxtable—there was no way that Larry Hogan was going to have big fun in Baltimore.
And TACO just endorsed state Senate asshole Phil Berger for his primary next year. His challenger, Sam Page, is staying in the race.
https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/trump-endorses-berger-reelection-rockingham-county-primary-2025/
This is going to get MESSY. Where's my popcorn?
Here 🍿
The crime and immigration number in AP/NORC poll is incredible.
"Trump approval shifts
OVERALL
Mar: 🔴 42-56 (-14)
Dec: 🔴 36-61 (-25)
ECONOMY
Mar: 🔴 40-58 (-18)
Dec: 🔴 31-67 (-36)
IMMIGRATION
Mar: 🔴 49-50 (-1)
Dec: 🔴 38-60 (-22)
CRIME
Aug: 🟢 53-45 (+8)
Dec: 🔴 43-55 (-12)
MANAGING FEDERAL GOVT
Mar: 🔴 43-55 (-12)
Dec: 🔴 35-63 (-28)"
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1999141097369481405
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a GOP president negative on crime
I wonder what other issues might be seeing similar. Taxes and military in particular, maybe debt as well?
I remember in 2021's Virginia gubernatorial race. There was a point over that summer where we started getting attacked on education, and it seemed to be working. That's historically been such a reliably democratic issue that I knew something bad was happening when we saw it seem to flip away from us for the cycle.
Great analogy
Probably the pardons.
And ICE act worse than criminals in many communities. They deserve to sent to the gulags as in the memes. I think I approve Trump on border security which is still positive in the AP poll while supporting abolishing ICE.
And the Epstein files.
I've never seen a GOP President commit so many crimes!
Bush may have been underwater on crime in the late 2000s when his overall approval rating was below 30%. It is rare, though.
Even Nixon?
Good point. Nixon was very positive to crime!
/s
Yeah. I have to think that his approval figures on crime nosedived during the Watergate scandal.
Mike Lindell, the pillow guy and Trump sycophant, has announced his candidacy for governor of Minnesota.
MN-Gov is Likely D without him, and Safe D with him.
Not just at the MN-GOV race but potentially at the down ballot level elsewhere as well.
Please proceed, Mike...and take the rest of Minnesota Republicans down with you...
He's linked to neo-nazism right?
Rep. Al Green (D-TX) has introduced two articles of impeachment against President Trump. Article I pertains to President Trump calling for the execution of six Democratic lawmakers, all of whom are currently serving in the U.S. Senate or U.S. House of Representatives, and who previously served in the U.S. Military or in U.S. Intelligence communities. Article II describes how President Trump has fostered a political climate in which lawmakers and judges face threats of political violence and physical assault, has made threats and vituperative comments against federal judges, putting their safety and well-being at risk, and is undermining the independence of the judiciary. Green has invoked Rule IX to force a floor vote on the articles.
Fall 2025 Poll
Results and takeaways from the Fall 2025 Yale Youth Poll.
Young Voters Turn on Trump, Disapprove of Big Beautiful Bill; Limited Evidence of Increasing ‘Manosphere’ Views or Male Loneliness Epidemic
https://youthpoll.yale.edu/fall-2025-results
Decent poll for Annie Andrews. She’s got a real chance for the upset.
do we get to see the poll?
Last line of the article has a link to a memo on results
Dems routinely have a high floor in SC and a ceiling about 2 points from floor. She could be at 45 with Graham at 41 and still lose.
For sure. I don’t expect her to win. Just saying their is a chance.
The 50-member Indiana state senate just convened to vote on the house-passed redistricting plan. To pass, the bill needs a majority of the whole--26 votes.
The ten Democrats will vote “no.” 16 Republicans have publicly supported the bill but one is not expected to be present (recent heart surgery). 12 Republicans have publicly opposed the bill. Thus, if people vote as they have stated, we know of 15 expected "yes” votes and 22 expected “no” votes.
That’s more “nos” from the get go than I expected - though unfortunately I still expect the Indiana GOP to fall in line and pass it
Then would need 3 of the remaining 12 Republicans to stop it.
Let's hope for 26. If we beat it 25-24, the bill can be brought up for another vote in January when the missing "yes" vote can attend. And if that result is 25-25, the LG can break the tie with a "yes."
An Indiana GOP lawmaker who supports redistricting texts during senate debate: "It's bleak."
https://x.com/adamwren/status/1999221695346012181?s=20
Don't get me wrong, this is great news, but why aren't they supporting this? They're unlikely to be punished by voters for it so why bring the wrath of Trump and his minions down on themselves? Are they genuinely good government types? What am I missing here?
From whatI’ve read a lot of the senate Republicans are anti-MAGA and we’re willing to take that stand on this issue.
One of the State Senate Republicans may have been a Yes, but I believe has a daughter with Down syndrome, and after the Oval Office felon referred to Tim Walz as “retarded” (his word), the State Senator declared he was a No.
It’s nice to see asshole behavior get the comeuppance that it deserves.
I think that Trump's R-word slur was directed more at Walz's son than at Walz himself (which makes it even more despicable).
It's Indianover. Holy shit (in a good way!). https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/indiana-trump-republicans-redistricting-congress.html
They still might take it up again next year though right? I won't breathe a sigh of relief until the filing deadline has passed.
I never say never, but 31-19 is a pretty big deficit to overcome.
Which races would you currently consider to be recruitment failures? Thinking of races where we could reasonably win if we had a stronger candidate, or where we're on track to nominate someone suboptimal for the district.
ME-Senate is a potential case, though conceivably I could also see it working out the other way.
What has baffled me this whole time has been that Democrats have had to resort to getting Janet Mills to run in the Senate race when they couldn’t get someone else.
Neither 2014 Senate Candidate Shenna Bellows, currently a gubernatorial candidate nor Troy Jackson could be persuaded to run, which is maddening.
Bellows I get lost to Susan Collins in the 2014 Senate race by nearly 37% points. But she also got elected to the Maine State Senate and served for four years until she got elected as Secretary of State, which she’s been since 2021. Bellows has more stature than she did back in 2014 and in a different political environment working against Collins and the GOP.
Wait, isn't Maine's SoS position not elected by voters? State Senate was, but I believe the legislature appoints the SoS.
Really? I was never aware that The Maine Legislature appoints the Secretary of State. I had presumed that the position like many state SoS was an elected job. At least I know in California this is the case.
In any event, Shenna Bellows has had experience in elected office. Even if the Maine SoS position is not from voters electing that person, she still possesses a certain degree of stature even if Troy Jackson by contrast has a longer history than Bellows in elected office and as a leader in state government.
Bellows is also just 50 years old and challenged Susan Collins when she was in her late 30’s. If age is a concern for many Mainers, they certainly wouldn’t have that problem if Bellows ran for the Senate again this year.
New Hampshire Governor and basically all of the statewide Texas offices besides Sen because all of our strong candidates want the same office...
Eh, most of the other Texas races have decent enough, B-list options, who are capable of winning in a friendly environment. As for New Hampshire Governor, the bench is rather thin and the filing deadline is months away
I’m not worried about NH. Late filing deadline and State Senator Donovan Fenton looks likely to run. I imagine he announces after the holidays.
Mt-1. Ryan Zinke is a huge underperformer only won by 3 in 2022 and 7 in 2024. I’m hoping Sam Forstag jumps in but until then it’s making me nervous.
New Hampshire Gov is another, but NH has a late primary so there’s still some time.
ME and MI Senate I don't know if I'd call failures, but clusterf's. If Mills was going to run, she should've gotten in sooner. And the DSCC shouldn't have gotten behind one candidate in MI when there was another legit viable one. We generally have avoided this kind of stuff in years past.
I wouldn’t have expected as many people to stick with Platner after all his issues emerged, yet here we are. I think her decision to wait until October was defensible. She probably figured since she was the governor there was no threat to her in a primary.
MT-Sen There's a lot of veteran Democrats (Tester, Bullock, Tranel) who might be able to put up a fight in a strong enough environment. Instead, it looks like we're just gonna get some dudes.
I think Bullock losing as bad as he did in 2020 + Tester's loss has scared them off.
Certainly although at the same time, we could use fresher faces who aren’t going to be establishment choices like Steve Bullock.
As long as MT Democrats don’t have another disaster of a situation as they did back in 2014 when Democratic Senate Nominee John Walsh was forced to end his candidacy due to plagiarism and Amanda Curtis had a short window to run her campaign, then I’d be interested to see how the Democratic Candidates emerge.
Remains to be seen though.
Alaska, Gov and House. SC 01 ex Mace, CA gov because of over-recruitment, and Hawaii if no decent challenge to Case
The filing deadlines for the vast majority of states is still far away. I'd say this discussion is better served in March at least.