Thats kind of a stretch. That district is pretty red outside of Asheville. Its probably a toss up at best, at least until I see polling that tells me otherwise
Cook Political Report moved it from Likely R to Lean R back in mid-June. Perhaps with this current scandal, it will get moved from Lean R to Tossup, but Lean D would be a stretch.
FYI, they have rated Don Davis' district (NC-01) as Lean R after the GOP even more extreme gerrymander.
ETA: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball just changed the ratings for both Don Davis' and Chuck Edwards' districts from Lean Rep. to Tossup:
-10 is a swing seat like the 7th and has a primary between prosecutor Christina Hines, fired federal worker Eric Chung and Pontiac mayor Tim Griemel (Pontiac is actually in the 11th). There doesn't seem to be too much of an ideological divide but Griemel ran against Haley Stevens in the 11th in 2018.
-11 is a progressive vs establishment battle between attorney Aisha Farooqi and state senator Jeremy Moss. Moss is highly favored, as several minor progressives will split the vote away from Farooqi.
11 is Haley Stevens's home district and is basically a moderate Democratic vote-sink based in Oakland County. If Farooqi wins, it would be a huge surprise and probably only possible if AES wins the Senate primary in a huge landslide.
10 lacks an obvious progressive favorite in the primary.
I mean, I hate Thanksgiving. But l've nevertweeted that out and if I was running for office in a purple area, I'd sure as heck have a better response prepared.
I agree, but it's more than possible to argue that Thanksgiving should continue to exist, while also acknowledging the problematic elements of it. We can center it on families and friends and away from colonialism.
oh my god who cares lol. If we need to direct voters to wikipedia to explain why our candidates can't just respond "no" to "do you want to abolish Thanksgiving" we're fucking cooked lol.
I was more thinking the opposite. I.e. those with giant hangups about the Thanksgiving myth should learn the holiday's actual history before offering word salad on the topic.
Right but what's a typical Wisconsin voter normally celebrating Thanksgiving going to think about when Francesca Hong's 2020 tweet comes up and she's giving this non-answer?
They're likely going to question what Hong's priorities are as opposed to actually helping them with the basic issues they need addressed.
Agreed it isn't helpful, and Hong fid not handle it well, but I'd hope they'd be more interested in what the candidates are trying to do for Wisconsonites than 10 year tweets about Arbor Day.
I'm sure voters are interested in what Hong has to offer but the Gen Z crowd might be the key demographic that is willing to overlook these tweets as they are more concerned over affordability.
Voters don’t. They think you’re weird, they won’t vote for you, no matter how trivial the issue is. “I want to celebrate Thanksgiving” is the only correct response.
Doesn’t matter. Her answer stinks and 99.99% of Wisconsin voters want to celebrate Thanksgiving without liberal guilt. Why are people excusing away all her crazy views? That’s why she shouldn’t be the nominee
Celebrate what? A Lincoln-created holiday to foster unity and be a family-friendly counter to raucous Christmas celebrations? Or because it co-opted a historic event that happened during a time when European diseases were obliterating east coast tribes before germ theory was even a hypothesis let alone a theory?
Those Pilgrims were also grave robbers, etc. I think the history of Thanksgiving is very debatable. But today, it's basically a happy family holiday, and justly much beloved.
Yeah, she seems almost uniquely unsuited to survive an oppo dump. I am not really a fan of AES (or more specifically, how his campaign has been run), but I don't see him as any more damaged than Stevens would have been, coming out of the primary.
Even on my most pessimistic day, I'd give AES/Stevens a 40% chance to win. Hong is more like 5%, only a wave so large that a houseplant would have won WI.
I agree. I still think AES is putting a seat in play that otherwise wouldn't be but I suspect he'll eke it out. Hong, on the other hand could very well lose us a race that should be a relative layup.
I am not comfortable with AES's chances, if we're taking polling so far seriously. He definitely has a chance of winning, but this is a very uncomfortable tossup that he has been trailing in, lately, per polling.
I somewhat exaggerated. I meant I have become less fetalistic about him. A few weeks ago I thought he was almost assured to lose. I now see him roughly as 50-50 while Steven's would be about 55%
I think it’s obvious to many of us. I just don’t know if normie Dems who are now driven by emotional rage and have let logical thinking take a back seat see that Tiffany is the likely winner if they nominate Hong. It’s like watching a slowly approaching train wreck and we know what’s coming.
If there's one swing state where a democratic socialist could get elected, it would definitely be Wisconsin.
However, Francesca Hong strikes me as someone who is absolutely terrified of angering campus leftists while also trying to appeal to a broader coalition of voters at the same time than someone who is an annoying campus leftist.
If the Progressive movement wants a real chance at obtaining political power they need to tamp down some of their more radical elements and kneecap some of their worst candidates and they seem loathe to do this. However, the alternative is being seen by the rest of the Democratic party as the group who gives us candidates who are left wing versions of Todd Aiken, Sharron Angle or Christine O'Donnell in important must win races.
If they had kneecapped her for Mandela Barnes, who dropped out last week, they would be left with...Rodriguez, who dropped out two weeks before that? Roys, who is polling in the single digits? Joel Brennan, who nobody knows? Crowley, who probably doesn't get back in if not for Hong?
If Hong didn't exist or had not run and the same events happened anyway, we would probably be on our 5th or 6th choice right now - can't say that screams a lot of confidence in some respects.
You could literally pick a name out of a hat of every elected Democrat in office in Wisconsin and do better than Hong 99% of the time. Anyone who isn't mired in a major scandal would be better than her.
Basically, "Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit, read between the lines that I still believe we should cancel Thanksgiving because it's painful for Native Americans."
That's utterly terrible. Unless she thinks that all the planning and sheer effort to prepare a feast for a group is "painful," but I know that's not what she meant.
If we allow the conversation to be about whether or not Thanksgiving should be celebrated instead of Tom Tiffany saying that Tariffs are "all good things" and the Big Craptacular Bill is a "major win for the American People" then sure it will be a guaranteed loss. I get that a lot of people in here don't like Hong but we do nothing but help Republicans by constantly ceding the rhetorical battleground to bad faith culture war topics.
What does celebrating Thanksgiving have to do with how someone would govern the state? How does this question even merit screen time on a major network? It's nothing but corporate media pablum that she should be prepared to answer. She needs better media training if she's going to end up being the nominee.
Wisconsin swing voters aren’t reading the comments section of The Downballot and making their minds up based on conversations here. This is exactly the sort of space where we should be able to honestly discuss weaknesses and flaws of our candidates. This Substack isn’t powerful enough to impact the larger dialogue.
This goes against Hong's reputation *among her own core supporters*, who view her as a straight-talking and fearless progressive leader, not someone whose first reaction to any kind of political controversy surrounding her is to overexplain and act extremely defensive.
Out of all the pre-Trump GOP groups, followers of the LDS church seem to be the most reluctant to embrace MAGA and Flake is not only LDS, but he is a descendant of one of the Mormon founding families. I have to wonder if we will see more movement away from the GOP from the Mormon community.
In late June he did an interview in which he said if he lived in Texas he'd vote for Talarico (because Paxton), though he declined to formally endorse.
He wrote an op-ed calling on Dems to back Susan Collins over Platner in early June.
TX 15 Poll: I really hate getting excited about the results of a poll that is not independent but a House Majority PAC poll is stunning. Of course, we all heard the recording of Monica De La Cruz telling her supporters weeks ago that her own polls had her only leading by one point, so who knows? Of note, the Cook PVI is R+7.
Bobby Pulido (D): 51%-Monica De La Cruz (R Inc.) 45%.
Generic: D 48%-R 46%.
2024 Recall: Of respondents who voted in 2024, Trump +15.
Contentious? How so? As I see it, it hasn’t been very contentious. I’m in WA-3 and disappointed in MGP, but I believe most people see her as the only Democrat who could win this district.
Just cast my vote for Dr. Nila Devanth in VA-2. I think Elaine Luria should have the Democratic primary locked down but I am hopeful that Devanth can get enough votes to show the party that there is an appetite for Progressives countrywide, not just in major cities
From my understanding Virginia Beach isn't the most progressive city. I used to have family there and to me it was a suburban, capitalistic, overcrowded place. But I could be wrong; it's been 5 years.
The Eastern Shore, especially Cape Charles, is one of the most beautiful places I've ever been to, though.
Yeah that assessment is pretty correct. It is a very quintessential suburban town with a coastal vibe and a large military population. It’s a very even 50/50 split between Democrats and Republicans in my experience
I vote for the candidate that I think is best and will do the best job for the country and their constituents. I don’t vote to send a message, but because Luria seems to have it in the bag that’s silver lining if Devanth can’t win
I feel that both of them have been attacked somewhat unfairly, which made them more sympathetic and has led me to actually like each of them more than I did a few months ago. My experience is probably not typical though.
OH-7: Incumbent Max Miller's Dropbox folder including supposed evidence of his innocence related to domestic assault allegations mistakenly included nudes of his toddler, tantamount to child sexual abuse. The documents received over 200 thousand views on Twitter until the child pornography was removed.
Let me be careful how I phrase this, but I don’t think that a family having photos of their toddler naked is inherently sexual abuse. (I have not seen this specific photo, nor do I have any desire to, and the specifics of the picture could be bad.) Young kids do not have the same understanding or shame around nudity, and it’s usually understood that normal people are not going to see it as a sexual thing. Growing up, one of the photos displayed in our house was of my older sister (3 years old) holding me as a newborn right after I came home from the hospital. My sister isn’t wearing any clothes in the shot (who knows why? 3 year olds are weird) but I never looked at that photo and saw it as anything other than heartwarming, and I know it’s one of my sisters favorites as well.
That said, absolutely don’t post that shit online. There are way too many creeps out there who will take it the wrong way. I assume that genuinely was a mistake on his team’s part, given that he’s desperately trying to salvage his political career.
Anyway, I care a lot more that Miller abused his wife and may have beaten his daughter than whether he once took a photo of his toddler running around naked. He’s clearly a monster, just not convinced he’s sexually abused his daughter.
Not sure. The east is where the most of the reddening in NC goes. Each benchmark from the last general election is a lagging indicator.
If I was gambling, I’d bet most likely Davis won’t be able to keep this seat in a Blue wave. A tsunami with massive turnout differential, a lot of red voters sitting out, maybe.
Dems in control of at least one house of Congress. Imprachment. More damning Epstein revelations. Cover ups. Corruption. Coroorate giveaways.
It could get way worse forcthe GOP after the midterms.
If they get hammered in Nov, some will want to start distancing themselves from Trump/MAGA while others hold the line. The regime certainly will. Likely (or at least possible) they start turning on each other in greater numbers.
House Minority Whip Katherine Clark is the incumbent is this district, which per TDB voted for Harris by 45. Clark was my rep until about 4 years ago when I moved to the neighboring 7th.
From talking with MI primary voters, most Democrats who are voting for AES will vote for Stevens in the general if she wins tonight. One Black voter declined to say who she voted for because of her circle of friends but voted a Democrat primary ballot because it aligned with her Christian values.
i was typing an iteration of this comment as you posted the above, bright side is Wisconsin is only a governor's race, but I agree we will be most likely fine in Michigan while Wisco is gonna be ugly
As much as I hope Democrats will win the WI-GOV race, it's far more important to focus on winning back control over the Senate and stopping Trump for the remainder of his two years as POTUS.
Whatever one thinks of AES (McMorrow was my first choice but both he and Stevens are fine with their own weaknesses) the situation in MI and WI are clearly apples and oranges
The Chuck Edwards scandal is welcome here in NC. Anything that makes the rigged 11R-3D maps a miserable failure warms my heart.
I think it’s probably Lean D at this point.
Thats kind of a stretch. That district is pretty red outside of Asheville. Its probably a toss up at best, at least until I see polling that tells me otherwise
Cook Political Report moved it from Likely R to Lean R back in mid-June. Perhaps with this current scandal, it will get moved from Lean R to Tossup, but Lean D would be a stretch.
FYI, they have rated Don Davis' district (NC-01) as Lean R after the GOP even more extreme gerrymander.
ETA: Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball just changed the ratings for both Don Davis' and Chuck Edwards' districts from Lean Rep. to Tossup:
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2026-rating-changes/#house
How the heck is this the first censure recommended by the Ethics Commitee since Rangel in 2010??
I'm glad to see that kind of behaviour being called to account. The boss drooling over the pretty young assistant should not be in any way acceptable
Big D primaries in MI. Senate, MI-13 (Thanedar v McKinney), MI-07 (Brink, Maasdam, Lawrence), MI-10 (Chung, Hines, Greimel), MI-11 (Ufford, Farooqi, Torres).
Potentially competitive come November:
1) MI-07, Even, Barrett (R)
2) MI-10, R+3, Open (James, R)
3) MI-08 R+1, McDonald Rivet (D)
4) MI-04, R+3, Huizenga (R)
5) MI-03, D+4, Scholten (D)
Anyone more plugged in than me, which should be a lot of people, correct anything that looks wrong.
Whats going on with MI-10 and MI-11. Feel like ive heard lots about Mckinney and Lawrence but no one from those races very much.
-10 is a swing seat like the 7th and has a primary between prosecutor Christina Hines, fired federal worker Eric Chung and Pontiac mayor Tim Griemel (Pontiac is actually in the 11th). There doesn't seem to be too much of an ideological divide but Griemel ran against Haley Stevens in the 11th in 2018.
-11 is a progressive vs establishment battle between attorney Aisha Farooqi and state senator Jeremy Moss. Moss is highly favored, as several minor progressives will split the vote away from Farooqi.
11 is Haley Stevens's home district and is basically a moderate Democratic vote-sink based in Oakland County. If Farooqi wins, it would be a huge surprise and probably only possible if AES wins the Senate primary in a huge landslide.
10 lacks an obvious progressive favorite in the primary.
Moss is basically McMorrow if she was a dude, ideologically, so it’ll still be an improvement over Stevens
Sabato Crystal Ball has MI-07 and MI-10 as Toss Ups. MI-04 as Lean R. Those would all be D flips.
In terms of holds, it has MI-08 as Likely D and MI-03 as safe D.
TSU/YouGov:
Talarico 47-45
Abbott 49-43
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/67aa7aa3e284b002cd6a420e/t/6a713767d4ed824b91ea090d/1785804647961/Texas+Statewide+August2026.pdf
Last night, WI-Dem frontrunner Hong showed her chef skills by cooking up quite the word salad.
https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/should-thanksgiving-be-canceled-socialist-candidate-cant-give-cnn-a-straight-answer/
It is a terrible holiday, really.
I mean, I love giving Thanks, and the food. But the actual THING being celebrated is AWFUL.
I mean, I hate Thanksgiving. But l've nevertweeted that out and if I was running for office in a purple area, I'd sure as heck have a better response prepared.
Sure thing, lets double down on that in a 2x Trump state.
WGAF, though. The Wisconsin Gov cannot abolish Fedetal Holidays.
Arguably that makes her comments even more self-sabotaging...
I agree, but it's more than possible to argue that Thanksgiving should continue to exist, while also acknowledging the problematic elements of it. We can center it on families and friends and away from colonialism.
To be fair, the THING is a complete myth invented well after the holiday was established during the Civil War. I recommend the Wikipedia article.
oh my god who cares lol. If we need to direct voters to wikipedia to explain why our candidates can't just respond "no" to "do you want to abolish Thanksgiving" we're fucking cooked lol.
I was more thinking the opposite. I.e. those with giant hangups about the Thanksgiving myth should learn the holiday's actual history before offering word salad on the topic.
Wish I could like this about a thousand times. Just another own goal from a not ready for primetime player...
Say what you will about Abdul, he's a national level politician. I think Hong would struggle in any constituency outside Madison in Wisconsin.
Absolutely. Abdul is a million times more polished and on message than she is. It's not close.
Right but what's a typical Wisconsin voter normally celebrating Thanksgiving going to think about when Francesca Hong's 2020 tweet comes up and she's giving this non-answer?
They're likely going to question what Hong's priorities are as opposed to actually helping them with the basic issues they need addressed.
Agreed it isn't helpful, and Hong fid not handle it well, but I'd hope they'd be more interested in what the candidates are trying to do for Wisconsonites than 10 year tweets about Arbor Day.
I'm sure voters are interested in what Hong has to offer but the Gen Z crowd might be the key demographic that is willing to overlook these tweets as they are more concerned over affordability.
Older voters, namely seniors, may be different.
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2026/04/16/gen-z-voters-in-wisconsin-are-skeptical-of-both-political-parties/88939177007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=true&gca-epti=z11xx48p116250l004450c116250e1154xxv11xx48d--61--b--61--&gca-ft=225&gca-ds=sophi
Voters don’t. They think you’re weird, they won’t vote for you, no matter how trivial the issue is. “I want to celebrate Thanksgiving” is the only correct response.
I guess I missed the part where "Should Thanksgiving be celebrated?" is in any way relevant to governing the state of Wisconsin.
Doesn’t matter. Her answer stinks and 99.99% of Wisconsin voters want to celebrate Thanksgiving without liberal guilt. Why are people excusing away all her crazy views? That’s why she shouldn’t be the nominee
Celebrate what? A Lincoln-created holiday to foster unity and be a family-friendly counter to raucous Christmas celebrations? Or because it co-opted a historic event that happened during a time when European diseases were obliterating east coast tribes before germ theory was even a hypothesis let alone a theory?
Those Pilgrims were also grave robbers, etc. I think the history of Thanksgiving is very debatable. But today, it's basically a happy family holiday, and justly much beloved.
I also think they would be disgusted that a feasting day would be associated with them. They would think it "too Catholic."
They did have a feast of thanksgiving, though. They were not as extreme as the founders of the Boston Bay Colony, I believe.
She's an electoral nightmare. I guess Wisconsin dems have a week to salvage this.
I’m probably as left as anyone on here, but even I would vote for Crowley. Unlike Michigan senate, I can’t see Hong winning in November.
I have grown comfortable with AES's chances but I see no realistic path for Hong to win, even in this environment
I think Hong can win (polling is close), but she's her own worst enemy and is making it harder than it should be.
I don't think polling is pricing in the fact that she's going to get $80 million in really nasty ads dropped on her in two weeks.
Yeah, she seems almost uniquely unsuited to survive an oppo dump. I am not really a fan of AES (or more specifically, how his campaign has been run), but I don't see him as any more damaged than Stevens would have been, coming out of the primary.
Even on my most pessimistic day, I'd give AES/Stevens a 40% chance to win. Hong is more like 5%, only a wave so large that a houseplant would have won WI.
I agree. I still think AES is putting a seat in play that otherwise wouldn't be but I suspect he'll eke it out. Hong, on the other hand could very well lose us a race that should be a relative layup.
I am not comfortable with AES's chances, if we're taking polling so far seriously. He definitely has a chance of winning, but this is a very uncomfortable tossup that he has been trailing in, lately, per polling.
I somewhat exaggerated. I meant I have become less fetalistic about him. A few weeks ago I thought he was almost assured to lose. I now see him roughly as 50-50 while Steven's would be about 55%
We shall see. As he is likely to win the primary tonight, I sure hope he wins.
I'm not particularly loving what I'm seeing out of Michigan but any kind of argument can be made. With Wisconsin... we'd be cooked.
Wisconsin dems have no one to blame but themselves if they still vote for Hong, they've been warned.
This is true. To win, she would need to get a majority, or close to it.
I think it’s obvious to many of us. I just don’t know if normie Dems who are now driven by emotional rage and have let logical thinking take a back seat see that Tiffany is the likely winner if they nominate Hong. It’s like watching a slowly approaching train wreck and we know what’s coming.
Whether she is a great candidate is another matter (she isn't).
Coming across as an annoying campus leftist is a poor strategy for running for office in a purple state.
If there's one swing state where a democratic socialist could get elected, it would definitely be Wisconsin.
However, Francesca Hong strikes me as someone who is absolutely terrified of angering campus leftists while also trying to appeal to a broader coalition of voters at the same time than someone who is an annoying campus leftist.
If the Progressive movement wants a real chance at obtaining political power they need to tamp down some of their more radical elements and kneecap some of their worst candidates and they seem loathe to do this. However, the alternative is being seen by the rest of the Democratic party as the group who gives us candidates who are left wing versions of Todd Aiken, Sharron Angle or Christine O'Donnell in important must win races.
If they had kneecapped her for Mandela Barnes, who dropped out last week, they would be left with...Rodriguez, who dropped out two weeks before that? Roys, who is polling in the single digits? Joel Brennan, who nobody knows? Crowley, who probably doesn't get back in if not for Hong?
If Hong didn't exist or had not run and the same events happened anyway, we would probably be on our 5th or 6th choice right now - can't say that screams a lot of confidence in some respects.
You could literally pick a name out of a hat of every elected Democrat in office in Wisconsin and do better than Hong 99% of the time. Anyone who isn't mired in a major scandal would be better than her.
Brennan and Roys would still be preferable, their poor general election polling is probably the result of poor name recognition.
That is absolutely not true at all. There is no swing state where one with these views could get elected
Just coming off like an AI character brought to life.
Ken Klippenstein notes that a Republican memo describes Hong as “uniquely dangerous in the general election.” Is this just cat fud? https://www.kenklippenstein.com/p/will-francesca-hong-and-abdul-el
Totally fud.
Not sure I'd characterize it as a word salad. It's quite clear what she's saying.
Basically, "Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit, read between the lines that I still believe we should cancel Thanksgiving because it's painful for Native Americans."
That's utterly terrible. Unless she thinks that all the planning and sheer effort to prepare a feast for a group is "painful," but I know that's not what she meant.
She was referring to the centuries-long genocide of Native Americans after the arrival of European colonists in North America.
Sure, not exactly a winning GE argument in a Republican-controlled Trump state though.
To put it politely.
If we allow the conversation to be about whether or not Thanksgiving should be celebrated instead of Tom Tiffany saying that Tariffs are "all good things" and the Big Craptacular Bill is a "major win for the American People" then sure it will be a guaranteed loss. I get that a lot of people in here don't like Hong but we do nothing but help Republicans by constantly ceding the rhetorical battleground to bad faith culture war topics.
There’s nothing to cede! She said it herself. “I want to celebrate Thanksgiving” is the only appropriate response.
What does celebrating Thanksgiving have to do with how someone would govern the state? How does this question even merit screen time on a major network? It's nothing but corporate media pablum that she should be prepared to answer. She needs better media training if she's going to end up being the nominee.
Who is suggesting ceding anything? People are just pointing out that she is repeatedly shooting herself in the foot for no reason whatsoever.
Wisconsin swing voters aren’t reading the comments section of The Downballot and making their minds up based on conversations here. This is exactly the sort of space where we should be able to honestly discuss weaknesses and flaws of our candidates. This Substack isn’t powerful enough to impact the larger dialogue.
Well, I think the only people who are "hurt" by it now are angsty teens.
This goes against Hong's reputation *among her own core supporters*, who view her as a straight-talking and fearless progressive leader, not someone whose first reaction to any kind of political controversy surrounding her is to overexplain and act extremely defensive.
Jeff Flake endorses Jon Ossoff
https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/2084607941173248351?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
Out of all the pre-Trump GOP groups, followers of the LDS church seem to be the most reluctant to embrace MAGA and Flake is not only LDS, but he is a descendant of one of the Mormon founding families. I have to wonder if we will see more movement away from the GOP from the Mormon community.
Mitt Romney is the most prominent example.
LDS members generally get along with the Jewish community.
Though we object to them "converting" our dead ancestors. (Not me; I don't care, as it has no effect.)
I remember reading about them doing that BS for Anne Frank. LDS faith is really kooky.
It’d be hard to see Mormons become Democrats en masse considering their social conservatism but a good fit for MAGA they are on the whole not
In late June he did an interview in which he said if he lived in Texas he'd vote for Talarico (because Paxton), though he declined to formally endorse.
He wrote an op-ed calling on Dems to back Susan Collins over Platner in early June.
The phrase “open-borders, Islamo-Marxist green agenda” from Andy Ogles attack ad is truly an impressive display of meaningless right-wing word salad
Ogles losing in a blue wave would be nice. Awful man.
Republicans have to be praying his primary opponent wins
He forgot to include "narco" in there somewhere.
A little surprised there wasn't a little transphobia sprinkled in for good measure. That said, he speaks like an Onion article
That's included in Islamo-Marxism, since "religion is the opiate of the people".
TX 15 Poll: I really hate getting excited about the results of a poll that is not independent but a House Majority PAC poll is stunning. Of course, we all heard the recording of Monica De La Cruz telling her supporters weeks ago that her own polls had her only leading by one point, so who knows? Of note, the Cook PVI is R+7.
Bobby Pulido (D): 51%-Monica De La Cruz (R Inc.) 45%.
Generic: D 48%-R 46%.
2024 Recall: Of respondents who voted in 2024, Trump +15.
Conducted by Normington Petts (7/23-27).
https://mailchi.mp/thehousemajoritypac.com/hmp-poll-bobby-pulido-leads-monica-de-la-cruz-in-tx-15
there was mention here a couple of weeks ago that Pulido will win!
I’ve thought he would probably win for a while.
If this poll is true, then I imagine Vicente Gonzalez is safely winning reelection, too.
Ah I was wondering who did it for HMP. It was Normington Petts.
WA CD 03 is having a contentious primary in a seat poised to flip but this column ignores it.
If Marie loses the primary, it will unfortunately flip.
Seems pretty unlikely she won't make top two. I think an upset would be more likely in a partisan primary.
Contentious? How so? As I see it, it hasn’t been very contentious. I’m in WA-3 and disappointed in MGP, but I believe most people see her as the only Democrat who could win this district.
I hope we’re not in the business of throwing seats we’d otherwise win, but it seems we may have crossed that Rubicon.
if only we knew how to properly seize the high ground on AI and data centers, so many more seats could be in play
You know what would be hilarious, even if unlikely? Perez and Heinrich advance to November, without Braun.
Unfortunately there only really seems to be one viable Republican, so this is highly unlikely.
Just cast my vote for Dr. Nila Devanth in VA-2. I think Elaine Luria should have the Democratic primary locked down but I am hopeful that Devanth can get enough votes to show the party that there is an appetite for Progressives countrywide, not just in major cities
From my understanding Virginia Beach isn't the most progressive city. I used to have family there and to me it was a suburban, capitalistic, overcrowded place. But I could be wrong; it's been 5 years.
The Eastern Shore, especially Cape Charles, is one of the most beautiful places I've ever been to, though.
Yeah that assessment is pretty correct. It is a very quintessential suburban town with a coastal vibe and a large military population. It’s a very even 50/50 split between Democrats and Republicans in my experience
VA Beach is no progressive bastion. Seems like an odd choice to “send a message”
I vote for the candidate that I think is best and will do the best job for the country and their constituents. I don’t vote to send a message, but because Luria seems to have it in the bag that’s silver lining if Devanth can’t win
MI-Sen - Substack's trending topics is listing AES as having already won the Democratic primary (screenshot taken by me):
https://substack.com/profile/442836630-aaron-apollo-camp/note/c-308082323?r=7bnixi
Polls are open in Michigan until 8 PM local time, and votes won't be counted until after the polls close.
I am just hoping that whoever wins the MI SEN primary tonight goes on to defeat Rogers in the general.
Mallory McMorrow will endorse the winner for the November general election.
Stevens and El-Sayed have said they would endorse the other as well. The latter seems to already be preparing for a campaign against Rogers.
I think the bitter cake has been baked, though (on both sides). Hope I am wrong, I certainly *am* wrong plenty...
I feel that both of them have been attacked somewhat unfairly, which made them more sympathetic and has led me to actually like each of them more than I did a few months ago. My experience is probably not typical though.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/08/04/congress/max-miller-daughter-abuse-image-01023575
OH-7: Incumbent Max Miller's Dropbox folder including supposed evidence of his innocence related to domestic assault allegations mistakenly included nudes of his toddler, tantamount to child sexual abuse. The documents received over 200 thousand views on Twitter until the child pornography was removed.
That's going to change to Lean Democratic. That and Chuck Edwards' pervy ass.
Say hello to Congressman-Elect Brian Poindexter come November.
He'll hopefully join Jamie Ager, Bale Dalton, Chaz Molder and Katy Padilla Stout who could beat out other scandal-plagued Republicans.
Keep those House pickup opportunities coming!
Republicans are scrambling to have Trump force him out. He has until tomorrow. Good luck with that.
That's a very serious mistake by Miller that could get him prosecuted, but would a Republican prosecutor in Ohio prosecute him?
They may prosecute his attorney who provided the documents as a fall guy. But it's his daughter and it was his decision to release it.
Let me be careful how I phrase this, but I don’t think that a family having photos of their toddler naked is inherently sexual abuse. (I have not seen this specific photo, nor do I have any desire to, and the specifics of the picture could be bad.) Young kids do not have the same understanding or shame around nudity, and it’s usually understood that normal people are not going to see it as a sexual thing. Growing up, one of the photos displayed in our house was of my older sister (3 years old) holding me as a newborn right after I came home from the hospital. My sister isn’t wearing any clothes in the shot (who knows why? 3 year olds are weird) but I never looked at that photo and saw it as anything other than heartwarming, and I know it’s one of my sisters favorites as well.
That said, absolutely don’t post that shit online. There are way too many creeps out there who will take it the wrong way. I assume that genuinely was a mistake on his team’s part, given that he’s desperately trying to salvage his political career.
Anyway, I care a lot more that Miller abused his wife and may have beaten his daughter than whether he once took a photo of his toddler running around naked. He’s clearly a monster, just not convinced he’s sexually abused his daughter.
Spineless worm Mike Johnson is campaigning with Laurie Buckout (the GOP candidate looking to unseat Rep. Davis) here in NC.
https://www.wral.com/news/nccapitol/north-carolina-central-gop-congress-house-speaker-mike-johnson-august-4/
You're not keeping that House majority come January, Mikey.
He won't keep the majority, but I wouldn't be surprised if Buckhout wins.
In a blue wave, it's very likely Davis keeps his rigged seat. In 2028, different story.
Not sure. The east is where the most of the reddening in NC goes. Each benchmark from the last general election is a lagging indicator.
If I was gambling, I’d bet most likely Davis won’t be able to keep this seat in a Blue wave. A tsunami with massive turnout differential, a lot of red voters sitting out, maybe.
That could be a wave, too. Albeit likely a smaller one.
i see no reason to assume trump becomes more focused on the cares of everyday americans once he loses his majority
Exactly.
Dems in control of at least one house of Congress. Imprachment. More damning Epstein revelations. Cover ups. Corruption. Coroorate giveaways.
It could get way worse forcthe GOP after the midterms.
If they get hammered in Nov, some will want to start distancing themselves from Trump/MAGA while others hold the line. The regime certainly will. Likely (or at least possible) they start turning on each other in greater numbers.
MA-05: Democratic candidate and current Waltham City Council Member Jonathan Paz gave an interview with 404 media about his time working for Flock: https://www.404media.co/why-a-flock-worker-quit-they-lied/.
House Minority Whip Katherine Clark is the incumbent is this district, which per TDB voted for Harris by 45. Clark was my rep until about 4 years ago when I moved to the neighboring 7th.
From talking with MI primary voters, most Democrats who are voting for AES will vote for Stevens in the general if she wins tonight. One Black voter declined to say who she voted for because of her circle of friends but voted a Democrat primary ballot because it aligned with her Christian values.
https://sixerswire.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/08/04/michigan-primary-election-2026-news-updates-results--live/91152640007/
Sounds like there's plenty of unity amongst Democrats in the MI-SEN race, which would bode well in defeating Mike Rogers this November.
By contrast, in the WI-GOV race it seems like things are all over the place.
i was typing an iteration of this comment as you posted the above, bright side is Wisconsin is only a governor's race, but I agree we will be most likely fine in Michigan while Wisco is gonna be ugly
As much as I hope Democrats will win the WI-GOV race, it's far more important to focus on winning back control over the Senate and stopping Trump for the remainder of his two years as POTUS.
This race seems much more stable than what's happening in Wisconsin. AES will be fine, Hong on the other hand....
Stevens could easily win tonight. But I agree, I think ARS will largely be fine.
Hong will need a strong Dem tailwind to get over the line.
She has not been terribly impressive as a communicator or nimble on TV. But it might not matter.
Whatever one thinks of AES (McMorrow was my first choice but both he and Stevens are fine with their own weaknesses) the situation in MI and WI are clearly apples and oranges