Having Paula Stark lose in court benefits FL Democrats. I think the seat would flip to Democrats even if she qualified (being that it's mostly an Orange County seat).
- Progressive so he wouldn’t alienate people who supported/voted for Platner, which is something you can’t ignore
- Has a long legislative and political record, so there’s very little chance something horrible comes out about him at this point (the only things I’ve seen against him are some less than ideal views he held over a decade ago and a false and repeatedly discredited accusation about abuse)
- Has a history of winning a red state senate district even when it voted for Trump and Collins by wide margins
- Already has statewide name recognition and the underlying structure needed to run a statewide campaign since he just ran for governor
I’d be shocked if he isn’t chosen, honestly. Every other candidate has some sort of downside far greater than Jackson’s
I maintain that the best available candidate that checks the most boxes for Maine is Troy Jackson. He occupies a similar lane to the previous candidate, appealing to that person's voters. And he's not faking it, unlike Wood. He hasn't lost before (no this isn't fair but the media will run with it anyway) unlike Bellows. And he's not a random nobody unlike Kleban or Shah.
I hope to god this hairbrained caucus scheme doesn't let someone though that keeps us at a disadvantage vs. Collins. She's eminently beatable as long as we don't bungle candidate selection and everyone gets on with it once someone's chosen. We're running behind right now bc of you-know-who, especially since that person allowed Collins millions of dollars in uncontested ads over the 4th of July weekend...
Shah isn't "a random nobody." He's well-known in the state for leading Maine's COVID response. That's why he lead in polling for most of the gubernatorial primary, because he had the most name recognition. He's arguably more well-known than any of the other Dem candidates, even Troy Jackson.
Tammy Duckworth put out a very scathing anti-endorsement due to Shah’s performance as the Illinois health director. We probably don’t need an out-of-stater with that blemish on their records in a race we’re trying to unfuck.
I respect Shah’s experience leading Maine’s COVID-19 response and managing the crisis though the period of the pandemic and after it ended. However, this kind of experience isn’t enough to translate into a pathway into politics. Shah would need to do more than his experience to prove he’s a fit to being Senator.
Additionally, I’m one of those people here on TDB who has been critical of Democratic politicians ceding decisions to health professionals during the pandemic as opposed to finding ways to work around the problems. The management of the pandemic got so complicated for years, it ended up putting stress on the economy and making people more financially stressed, especially in having to fight evictions from landlords.
Epidemiologists and public health officials are important to manage the response to COVID-19, AIDS, Ebola and other epidemics and pandemics but they also don’t run governments. They don’t oversee the economy and they don’t manage the budget (whether it be local, state or federal). I hope in the coming years Democrats learn from what happened in the COVID-19 pandemic and work to find a way to manage future epidemics/pandemics so that the economy doesn’t have to go through a depression, recession, etc. There of course aren’t easy answers.
Anyway, I’m sure Shah has credibility coming into politics one way or another. I just think he needs to prove things more than just talk about his public health background.
Yes, I think I agree with most of this. I’m fine with either Jackson or Bellows, in that order.
I don’t know if it’s fair to Dan Kleban, but I now have an extreme bias against rando nobodies in a major gubernatorial or Senate race. They can prove themselves in a lower race first after this mess.
I’m not inherently opposed to complete nobodies or randos like Kleban running for office. But as Platner showed, they need to be completely vetted from head to toe, and we don’t have the time to do so for Kleban, nor can we really risk taking a chance on someone like him when the stakes are this high
Oh I share the same opinion. There’s nothing he offers better than what Jackson does. The only thing Kleban offers is being an outsider, but as discussed earlier, Jackson being more of an insider is a major benefit in these circumstances
I think the only meaningful candidates in the race are Jackson and Bellows, and I’d be shocked if anyone else (Kleban, Shah, Wood) gain traction
I'm late to this but I think "outsider factor" isn't a thing. You have to be a somebody to be an outsider. Graham Platner, unfortunately, was a somebody. Kleban is a nobody.
The recount for Sioux Falls mayor has ended with the two-vote lead for Christine Erickson (Repub) expanding to a four-vote lead over Jamie Smith (Dem). She'll be sworn in on 7/17, unless Smith launches a legal challenge.
In Connecticut, Democratic state Rep. Josh Elliott announced last night that he has qualified for $3.7 million in public financing. Elliott, a progressive who wants to raise taxes on the ultra wealthy, is challenging Gov. Ned Lamont, a multimillionaire who refuses to raise taxes on the wealthy. Lamont is seeking a third term.
Yes, that was the major thing that prompted Elliott to run against him. Sadly Elliott's campaign hasn't really gone anywhere and he trails badly in polls.
They also endorsed all incumbent congressional Democrats as well as Republicans Max Miller, Mike Rulli, Mike Turner, Dave Joyce and Mike Carey, three of which face competitive races
In NY17, Mike Lawler raised $700K for Q2. That's good for a House race...but it's a 50% drop from the $1.4M he raised in Q1. In fact since Q1 2025 he's raised over $1M a quarter. Until now.
What might explain the drop-off? Donors maxing out? I mean he's got a huge $5M war chest now - and a 5-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Democrat Cait Conley - so the debate is kinda moot. But I just thought that the 50% drop was unusual.
This is such a dishonest/disingenuous attempt by Morris Katz to save face so he can try and come back for future campaigns to screw them up. Although, if anyone hires him after this, the campaign probably is already screwed up. To add insult to injury, I think it’s pretty trashy to throw your client under the bus and disclose private communications with them, particularly when he isn’t even officially out of the race yet. It seems ethically gray.
Meanwhile Summer Lee steered clear of sex pest Dan Moraff in 2022. Yet another indication that maybe, along with AOC’s lack of an endorsement, progressive women could sense this disaster coming from a mile away.
apparently she was also a brief "Brexit" Party member of the european parliament as Britian left the EU, serving from 2019-2020. Hopefully this was random and not political, just from the perspective of keeping things from spiraling further.
The Brexit Party is Reform, they're a 1:1 name change. I also think Reform voters will largely just assume is was politically motivated before a single fact comes out, and they will assume it was a non-white immigrant regardless.
This was back in May, but I thought I’d share it now because it was an interesting endorsement from a former politician who hasn’t been active in a while.
Abdul El-Sayed has been endorsed by former Rep. and former House Minority Whip David Bonior.
That is interesting. Bonior was a progressive congressman and remains a member of the DSA though, so it's not super surprising. He was the progressive choice for governor in 2002 but lost the primary to Jennifer Granholm, who later was Biden's Energy head.
-When Bonior retired in 2002, his home was drawn into a Thumb area district that was then represented by fellow Democrat Jim Barcia, whose home was drawn into the Flint area Kildee seat. Most of Bonior's territory was combined with fellow Democrat Sander Levin's territory, who succeeded Bonior.
-Levin retired in 2018 and was succeeded by his son Andy, who is a fellow progressive to Bonior.
-Andy himself was redistricted back into Sander's pre-2002 seat in 2022, and lost to fellow Democrat Haley Stevens. Republican John James flipped Bonior and Levin's old seat, and it's now expected to flip again as James is making a gubernatorial bid like Bonior did.
Bonior's push for statewide office also allowed Nancy Pelosi to enter House Democratic leadership and become whip in 2002, which eventually catapulted her to Speaker in 2007.
now imagine a world where the primary for senate in michigan is between levin and stevens instead of aes. i say this as a mcmorrow supporter that has concerns re both aes and stevens
Levin would probably (hopefully) win in a landslide. He should have run for his old seat - I'm not too pleased with the current candidates (Christina Hines, Eric Chung and Tim Griemel).
I mean, sure, but again, I don't see anything wrong with any of the candidates, Greimel being from out of district isn't ideal, but I don't see any evidence that the likely Republican nominee, Bouchard, is from the district either.
NC + 4 of ME, OH, AK, IA, TX. Would not take NE or FL completely off the board, either. Plus maybe one more surprise.
Holding GA, NH, & MI as well.
For me, I don't sweat Fetterman. He won't switch parties. Once his dumb ass sees which wayvthe wind is blowing, he'll move left again. Butt we cannot legislate until 2029 anyway, and he will be gone by then.
In the end I think we might end up better off for having had this happen.
Platner was already a candidate with the potential to underperform his polling or to lose ground versus Collins. The state primary electorate and polled voters seemed surprisingly willing to tolerate his other flaws, but we had no way of knowing if that would change after Collins went on the attack. At the same time, Mills was absolutely not the right candidate for this moment in time.
With Platner dropping out, we have a surprisingly decent chance of getting a solid candidate like Jackson, Bellows, or Frey. The former two will have built a campaign apparatus for their gubernatorial campaigns, which could hopefully scale back up without too much trouble.
Having Paula Stark lose in court benefits FL Democrats. I think the seat would flip to Democrats even if she qualified (being that it's mostly an Orange County seat).
Frost and the Demings seem to be pretty decent organizers in Orlando, too. Especially Frost.
Calling out Mainers - who’s best positioned to win this seat now !!??
Not a Mainer and I don't think many here are but we all seem to be in agreement Troy Jackson is best.
He checks a lot of boxes:
- Progressive so he wouldn’t alienate people who supported/voted for Platner, which is something you can’t ignore
- Has a long legislative and political record, so there’s very little chance something horrible comes out about him at this point (the only things I’ve seen against him are some less than ideal views he held over a decade ago and a false and repeatedly discredited accusation about abuse)
- Has a history of winning a red state senate district even when it voted for Trump and Collins by wide margins
- Already has statewide name recognition and the underlying structure needed to run a statewide campaign since he just ran for governor
I’d be shocked if he isn’t chosen, honestly. Every other candidate has some sort of downside far greater than Jackson’s
I maintain that the best available candidate that checks the most boxes for Maine is Troy Jackson. He occupies a similar lane to the previous candidate, appealing to that person's voters. And he's not faking it, unlike Wood. He hasn't lost before (no this isn't fair but the media will run with it anyway) unlike Bellows. And he's not a random nobody unlike Kleban or Shah.
I hope to god this hairbrained caucus scheme doesn't let someone though that keeps us at a disadvantage vs. Collins. She's eminently beatable as long as we don't bungle candidate selection and everyone gets on with it once someone's chosen. We're running behind right now bc of you-know-who, especially since that person allowed Collins millions of dollars in uncontested ads over the 4th of July weekend...
Shah isn't "a random nobody." He's well-known in the state for leading Maine's COVID response. That's why he lead in polling for most of the gubernatorial primary, because he had the most name recognition. He's arguably more well-known than any of the other Dem candidates, even Troy Jackson.
Tammy Duckworth put out a very scathing anti-endorsement due to Shah’s performance as the Illinois health director. We probably don’t need an out-of-stater with that blemish on their records in a race we’re trying to unfuck.
indeed
I never said I supported Shah. Just pointing out that they way they described him is objectively incorrect.
Fair enough, that’s what I get for assuming.
He is pretty close to being a random nobody. I can't name my state health director. Can you?
he's also taken money from charter school organizations, is hated by labor, and skipped the tribal nations forum just like janet
I respect Shah’s experience leading Maine’s COVID-19 response and managing the crisis though the period of the pandemic and after it ended. However, this kind of experience isn’t enough to translate into a pathway into politics. Shah would need to do more than his experience to prove he’s a fit to being Senator.
Additionally, I’m one of those people here on TDB who has been critical of Democratic politicians ceding decisions to health professionals during the pandemic as opposed to finding ways to work around the problems. The management of the pandemic got so complicated for years, it ended up putting stress on the economy and making people more financially stressed, especially in having to fight evictions from landlords.
Epidemiologists and public health officials are important to manage the response to COVID-19, AIDS, Ebola and other epidemics and pandemics but they also don’t run governments. They don’t oversee the economy and they don’t manage the budget (whether it be local, state or federal). I hope in the coming years Democrats learn from what happened in the COVID-19 pandemic and work to find a way to manage future epidemics/pandemics so that the economy doesn’t have to go through a depression, recession, etc. There of course aren’t easy answers.
Anyway, I’m sure Shah has credibility coming into politics one way or another. I just think he needs to prove things more than just talk about his public health background.
He's also now known for being Republican Governor Bruce Rauner's health director in Illinois.
So you may want to rethink that one.
Yes, I think I agree with most of this. I’m fine with either Jackson or Bellows, in that order.
I don’t know if it’s fair to Dan Kleban, but I now have an extreme bias against rando nobodies in a major gubernatorial or Senate race. They can prove themselves in a lower race first after this mess.
Right?! Kleban hasn't been vetted by a campaign.
Bellows seems neither like a particularly gifted campaigner nor does she have a track record that stands out, so I'm biased against her on this one
I’m not inherently opposed to complete nobodies or randos like Kleban running for office. But as Platner showed, they need to be completely vetted from head to toe, and we don’t have the time to do so for Kleban, nor can we really risk taking a chance on someone like him when the stakes are this high
I'm opposed because I don't think Kleban has any innate value as a candidate.
Oh I share the same opinion. There’s nothing he offers better than what Jackson does. The only thing Kleban offers is being an outsider, but as discussed earlier, Jackson being more of an insider is a major benefit in these circumstances
I think the only meaningful candidates in the race are Jackson and Bellows, and I’d be shocked if anyone else (Kleban, Shah, Wood) gain traction
I'm late to this but I think "outsider factor" isn't a thing. You have to be a somebody to be an outsider. Graham Platner, unfortunately, was a somebody. Kleban is a nobody.
The recount for Sioux Falls mayor has ended with the two-vote lead for Christine Erickson (Repub) expanding to a four-vote lead over Jamie Smith (Dem). She'll be sworn in on 7/17, unless Smith launches a legal challenge.
https://www.keloland.com/keloland-com-original/mayors-race-recount-continues-thursday/
Every vote counts
I'm curious if there was reduced GOP turnout, hence the GOP candidate squeaking by instead of a comfortable margin.
It also helped that the two eliminated candidates from round one, including an incumbent Repub state rep, endorsed Smith.
Still waiting on the recount for Indiana state senate district 23... seems like it could be a little while
https://www.wfyi.org/statewide/2026-07-08/recount-process-almost-done-for-indianas-close-primary-races
In Connecticut, Democratic state Rep. Josh Elliott announced last night that he has qualified for $3.7 million in public financing. Elliott, a progressive who wants to raise taxes on the ultra wealthy, is challenging Gov. Ned Lamont, a multimillionaire who refuses to raise taxes on the wealthy. Lamont is seeking a third term.
Wasn’t Lamont the one that vetoed a big housing bill? If so, this is welcome news.
Yes, that was the major thing that prompted Elliott to run against him. Sadly Elliott's campaign hasn't really gone anywhere and he trails badly in polls.
AK Sen: Mary Peltola raised $7 million in Q2. https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2026/07/10/hot-dem-summer-faces-the-heat-00992812?nname=playbook&nid=0000014f-1646-d88f-a1cf-5f46b7bd0000&nrid=0000014e-f0ed-dd93-ad7f-f8edad790000
Now that’s momentum. Proof that Senator Dan Sullivan is definitely going to have to work his ass off if he wants to get traction.
OH Sen: The 50,000 member Ohio Conference of Teamsters has endorsed Sherrod Brown. https://teamster.org/2026/07/ohio-conference-of-teamsters-announce-2026-congressional-endorsements/
They also endorsed all incumbent congressional Democrats as well as Republicans Max Miller, Mike Rulli, Mike Turner, Dave Joyce and Mike Carey, three of which face competitive races
Too many Mikes in the delegation, IMO.
I’m surprised they endorsed Miller over Poindexter
Yeah, Miller seems pretty controversial. Not just the domestic abuse allegations, but just being hardline MAGA in a somewhat competitive seat.
And Poindexter is a union ironworker, you'd think the unions would go for him by default.
Not a surprise. Brown has a rock solid relationship with unions.
MI-Sen: Abdul El-Sayed gains an endorsement from likely Rep. Brad Lander (D-NY)
Meh. That won't move the needle in Michigan. Suppose it might help with fundraising.
Neither will several other endorsements that posters have pointed out. But they deserve to be mentioned anyway.
Both El-Sayed and Lander have similar political philosophies but right now they are just candidates, not incumbents.
Gee ya think Sayed has the DSA lane locked up? /s
Notice how Lander isn't DSA, though, lol
Didn't Lander and Mandami cross-endorse each other last year in the NYC mayor's race?
Yes
Would like to pick everyone's brain here.
In NY17, Mike Lawler raised $700K for Q2. That's good for a House race...but it's a 50% drop from the $1.4M he raised in Q1. In fact since Q1 2025 he's raised over $1M a quarter. Until now.
What might explain the drop-off? Donors maxing out? I mean he's got a huge $5M war chest now - and a 5-1 cash-on-hand advantage over Democrat Cait Conley - so the debate is kinda moot. But I just thought that the 50% drop was unusual.
https://x.com/CATargetBot0001/status/2075311664891855235?s=20
The $700,000 cited here is only for June 4-June 30. https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00815415/1989486
Lawler brought in more than $700,000 from April 1 to June 3 and had to file two reports because of the primary. https://docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/C00815415/1982323/
Ahhh. Thank you. That makes much more sense.
This is such a dishonest/disingenuous attempt by Morris Katz to save face so he can try and come back for future campaigns to screw them up. Although, if anyone hires him after this, the campaign probably is already screwed up. To add insult to injury, I think it’s pretty trashy to throw your client under the bus and disclose private communications with them, particularly when he isn’t even officially out of the race yet. It seems ethically gray.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/07/09/congress/morris-katz-graham-platner-maine-00992609
Meanwhile Summer Lee steered clear of sex pest Dan Moraff in 2022. Yet another indication that maybe, along with AOC’s lack of an endorsement, progressive women could sense this disaster coming from a mile away.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/cp9l8l05vxet
Ann Widdecombe, a former Tory MP and later Reform party official in the UK, was murdered last night at her home in Dartmoor. She was 78.
Wow, that's horrible!
She was never a Reform MP, but was their extraparliamentary spokesperson for immigration and justice issues long after leaving the Commons.
Thanks. I now realize Reform wasn't even a party until years after she left Parliament.
apparently she was also a brief "Brexit" Party member of the european parliament as Britian left the EU, serving from 2019-2020. Hopefully this was random and not political, just from the perspective of keeping things from spiraling further.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Widdecombe
The Brexit Party is Reform, they're a 1:1 name change. I also think Reform voters will largely just assume is was politically motivated before a single fact comes out, and they will assume it was a non-white immigrant regardless.
Police saying no evidence the crime was poltically motivated.
MI-SEN:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1EJBReYggr/
This was back in May, but I thought I’d share it now because it was an interesting endorsement from a former politician who hasn’t been active in a while.
Abdul El-Sayed has been endorsed by former Rep. and former House Minority Whip David Bonior.
That is interesting. Bonior was a progressive congressman and remains a member of the DSA though, so it's not super surprising. He was the progressive choice for governor in 2002 but lost the primary to Jennifer Granholm, who later was Biden's Energy head.
-When Bonior retired in 2002, his home was drawn into a Thumb area district that was then represented by fellow Democrat Jim Barcia, whose home was drawn into the Flint area Kildee seat. Most of Bonior's territory was combined with fellow Democrat Sander Levin's territory, who succeeded Bonior.
-Levin retired in 2018 and was succeeded by his son Andy, who is a fellow progressive to Bonior.
-Andy himself was redistricted back into Sander's pre-2002 seat in 2022, and lost to fellow Democrat Haley Stevens. Republican John James flipped Bonior and Levin's old seat, and it's now expected to flip again as James is making a gubernatorial bid like Bonior did.
Bonior's push for statewide office also allowed Nancy Pelosi to enter House Democratic leadership and become whip in 2002, which eventually catapulted her to Speaker in 2007.
Seen some online posts attacking AES for this endorsement because Bonior was an old-school pro-life Dem.
This is not specific to AES or anyone but I hate hate HATE the recent trend of candidates being attacked over who chooses to endorse them
Especially because of positions those people had 20+ years ago.
And people can, have, and DO change their positions on some issues over the years. The knee jerk responses are just tiring.
I'm sure that kind of attack will cost him no appreciable number of votes.
I mean same but still
Still what?
Yes, but he also was an old school economic populist who led the Democratic opposition to NAFTA.
now imagine a world where the primary for senate in michigan is between levin and stevens instead of aes. i say this as a mcmorrow supporter that has concerns re both aes and stevens
Levin would probably (hopefully) win in a landslide. He should have run for his old seat - I'm not too pleased with the current candidates (Christina Hines, Eric Chung and Tim Griemel).
Really? All of them seem fairly decent, can fundraise, and would probably be the favorite in November. Levin lives in MI-11, anyways.
He can move. Despite living in the 11th the bulk of his former territory is in the 10th, as I stated above.
I mean, sure, but again, I don't see anything wrong with any of the candidates, Greimel being from out of district isn't ideal, but I don't see any evidence that the likely Republican nominee, Bouchard, is from the district either.
Yeah, afraid each of Stevens and El-Sayed are each no better than 50/50 in the general
A bit better than 50%, methinks.
More like 66/33.
AIPAC took him out. And would go hard after him again.
Probably not harder than against AES?
And we're talking about Andy Levin, the son of Sander Levin and the nephew of the late Senator Carl Levin.
I mean, the Levins are literally an institution in MI.
Tammy Duckworth comes out strongly against Nirav Shah’s Maine senate campaign due to his tenure as Bruce Rauner’s health director.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5962847-shah-urged-to-drop-senate-bid/
The campaign teams of Senators John Fetterman (D-PA) and Dave McCormick (R-PA) have set up a joint fundraising committee.
https://x.com/polltracker2024/status/2075269341591826542?s=46&t=sbdQQeYBqp0h_Zql717iTw
Fetterman is going bye bye in 2028. Aligning yourself with a GOP carpetbagger schmuck from Connecticut is going to result in him losing his primary.
It's just a shame Fetterman can't go bye bye sooner!
Fucker
Not good.
Potential indicator of a party switch, or just a dick move?
The latter. Hopefully.
I hate him so much. I hope we win 52 seats so we can ignore him.
NC + 4 of ME, OH, AK, IA, TX. Would not take NE or FL completely off the board, either. Plus maybe one more surprise.
Holding GA, NH, & MI as well.
For me, I don't sweat Fetterman. He won't switch parties. Once his dumb ass sees which wayvthe wind is blowing, he'll move left again. Butt we cannot legislate until 2029 anyway, and he will be gone by then.
Oh dear god.
And I thought I had seen enough with Fetterman.
Platner is officially out, per the Secretary of State. We can breathe a huge sigh of relief heading into the weekend.
In the end I think we might end up better off for having had this happen.
Platner was already a candidate with the potential to underperform his polling or to lose ground versus Collins. The state primary electorate and polled voters seemed surprisingly willing to tolerate his other flaws, but we had no way of knowing if that would change after Collins went on the attack. At the same time, Mills was absolutely not the right candidate for this moment in time.
With Platner dropping out, we have a surprisingly decent chance of getting a solid candidate like Jackson, Bellows, or Frey. The former two will have built a campaign apparatus for their gubernatorial campaigns, which could hopefully scale back up without too much trouble.