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Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. This is a longstanding rule in this community. Thank you for complying.
The banner headline on a key Norwegian news site is that Trump is threatening to withdraw the USA from NATO. And no, that unfortunately is not an April fool’s joke – although it might be argued that it is the April utterance of a fool.
He’s mad his vass- err, allies won’t clean up the mess he made so he can extricate himself from it sans consequences and make it somebody else’s problem.
Just dandy that the Congressional GOP has no interest in checking this madness
Trump does not have the authority to withdraw the U.S. from NATO. It is another desperate attempt by Trump to claim power he does not have, as he gets slapped down by the courts for other such attempts.
Historians in the future will be baffled at how the U.S. decided to just voluntarily relinquish its hegemony because half of its political system got high on its own supply of esoteric culture war bullshit mixed in with jingoism
The 2020 election conspiracy theorist candidates have now lost the SoS GOP primaries in both Michigan and now Arkansas in the past week. Reassuring to see. Those are the ones that would potentially challenge the results of elections down the road
Has anyone done an Excel sheet for all the state legislative seats up this year and added that D+10-12 shift we saw in the IA, FL and TX special elections?
Because I think Rs are going to lose way more seats there than they will for the Congressional ones.
Okay, first does anybody else find “complete and total endorsement” something that belongs in the Department of Redundancy Department?
Second, this is two polls now showing Roy Cooper with a double digit lead, and while the last one I could kind of write off as an outlier by a new polling company, YouGov is anything BUT that And Catawba College has been at this a while too. AND is on the ground in NC. So maybe rating Cooper’s odds at a Half-Stein was overly cautious or maybe Trump is putting a drag on Whatley’s (who has his “complete and total endorsement”). If Cooper pulls the Full Stein in this race, nobody will be happier than me, and nobody will be more nervous thanTed Budd.
Third… wasn’t Danny Tarkanian the basketball coach at UNLV back in the 80s? Seems like I remember his ugly mug on the sidelines when the Cardiac Pack of NCSU dropped them in the ‘83 NCAA Tournament on their way to the most improbable title in Final Four history.
Danny Tarkanian is the son of the basketball coach. He is not my favorite Armenian-American politician. A perennial candidate, he finally won a job as a county supervisor (or commissioner) in a small Nevada county.
In the old Soviet Union, state-funded (or "State-allowed-to-live / stay out of prison) authors & scientists used to bury their state criticisms in the footnotes. Sometimes quite extensive, but apparently rarely read by the censors.
Even if Cooper wins by a massive margin, I don't think Ted Budd will moderate his positions or votes.
He probably thinks the 2028 presidential election turnout will help him stay in the Senate. Be nice to see him and those three MAGA state Supreme Court judges washed out despite that.
Budd is high on his own supply. That guy has absolutely nothing on offer except his blind fealty to Tangerine Cthulhu, and that’s becoming more a liability than an asset lately. I hesitate to call two polls a trend, but two points do determine a one, if not a pattern and the last two polls showed Whatley trailing Cooper by a Full Stein. If that’s not just noise, then a Trump endorsement might turn out to be kryptonite by the time November arrives, and it’ll probably only get worse from there.
Oh, if Budd loses in 2028, I will rub my MAGA brother's nose in it. (He worked at the Greensboro airport and met Budd there while he was slumming it in the House.)
He lives in TX now, so if Cooper AND Talarico win in November, I will be sending him memes and crowing big time.
Hall of Fame basketball coach Tark the Shark was Jerry Tarkanian. He died in 2015. In addition to UNLV he also coached at Long Beach State and Fresno State, as well as 3 high schools, two community colleges and an NBA team (20 games as head coach for the Spurs in 1992).
From a North Carolina perspective, I don’t think there’s any real shot Stein will go for Senate in 2028. He can cakewalk to reelection by another double digit margin based on his current approval ratings. I think he could be talked into a Senate run when Roy Cooper retires, either in 2032 or 2038, though. 2032 would make sense if Cooper is planning only a single term, and Stein is term-limited then. But 2028 is too early—he seems to love being governor too much. He’d probably easily beat Budd though, you’re right.
Jackson is pretty widely seen by state Democrats as the 2028 Senate frontrunner, and I like his odds against Budd this far out. He’s proven his ability to win a significant number of Trump voters already, and his political instincts are phenomenal.
I was using “Full-Stein” (and “Half-Stein”) as a unit of measure equaling roughly 15 points in the polls (Stein’s margin over Mark Robinson). If you weren't here yesterday when the poll came out putting Cooper a Full-Stein ahead of Whatley’s, the reference isn’t as clear. For what it’s worth, I think a lot of that margin is owed to … Mark Robinson. I think Stein would have won *anyway*, but he wouldn't have won in a walk like he did. I like Stein a lot. He was my state senator when I still lived in Raleigh and before he ran for AG, and I walsh thought he did a good job repping the district.
And I wouldn’t mind seeing him run for Senate, but not in 2028. I could see him following Cooper though, since Cooper’s term would be up at the same time Stein’s would see him term-limited out. My gut tells me Cooper’s only in this for one lap. He’ll be 75 when this term runs its course, and running for another term would make him 81 when it ended.
And I agree about Jackson. He’s got the energy, the popularity and experience with the DC machine because of his time in the House (brief as it was).. My only hesitation is who would replace him as AG?
"Complete and total endorsement" is not only tautological, but it's not even accurate these days, what with them being moved on a whim and/or shared with an opponent.
Hmmm, "nobody will be happier than me" suggests that we'll need a happy-dance contest or something between you and MPC to know for sure. 🙂 MPC might be 23 votes ahead at the moment.
Is the Wisconsin judicial decision a surprise? How damaging is it? And how long does this delay a more-equitable distribution of political representation for the State of Wisconsin?
As for the Congressional redistricting, I think if Dems win a state trifecta in WI this year, they will redraw theirs to be 50-50 in 2027 for the 2028 cycle.
They also have to put independent an independent redistricting commission like Michigan’s on the ballot so they don’t get locked out of the process after 2030 again like they did in 2010. Either that or redraw the legislative maps to make the Dem legislative majorities wave proof, which seems less likely. They’d have to have several more districts that have strips going into Madison and Milwaukee, which may end up being quite risky and could spark a backlash in a state where Dems are more likely to be held to the “good government” standard.
A state trifecta can rein in the lawless NCSC by shortening the mandatory retirement age for judges and allowing the governor to appoint replacements he/she chooses -- and not from a list of 3 provided by the party of the outgoing one.
The amount Vindman raised exceeded what Moody raised during all of 2025 (including what she transferred) and he has more cash than she had as of 12/31. (Her 12/31 COH was $5.1 million.) According to the Vindman campaign, “the average donation was $39.44, with 27,600 of the contributions coming from Floridians.“ https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/01/vindman-fundraising-florida-senate-bid-00853729
Supreme Court Birthright Citizenship case - Listening to oral arguments right now via CNN.
So far, two of the three liberals (Jackson hasn't questioned Trump's Solicitor General yet, unless I tuned in after she spoke) and Roberts appear to be clearly against Trump's citizenship executive order, especially Roberts. I would expect Jackson to be aligned with the other two liberals on this case.
It's difficult to pin down the positions of the other five conservative Justices (a potential bad sign for Trump). Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch seem to be leaning in favor of the Trump executive order. The swing votes appear to be Kavanaugh and Barrett, with the three liberals and Roberts likely to support striking down the EO.
What makes you think that? Even the GOP aligned judges are skeptical. Alito asked Sauer to address the humanitarian issue with people who are here, arrested and deported, but have established roots in terms of domicile. Yes, THAT guy.
One attorney who's listening to the arguments (JayJayLegal) thinks this will be a 8-1 or 9-0 decision against Trump's birthright citizenship EO.
Listening to the aruments some more (Jackson started questioning Sauer moments ago), Sauer struggled immensely with Kavanaugh and Barrett's questioning. This is likely at least a 6-3 ruling against Trump in a couple of months or so, if not even more lopsided against Trump.
The vibe I got from SCOTUSBlog was lopsided against EO, with an Alito/Thomas concurrence suggesting they’d be open-minded about a redefinition of birthright citizenship if Congress spearheaded it
The case is a joke. The text of the 14th amendment is clear that if you are born here and remain a resident, you're a citizen. And even if it weren't clear, you can't change the constitution by executive order.
Anything short of a 9-0 ruling will be an indictment of the current court. Birthright citizenship is explicitly, unambiguously, and clearly spelled out in the constitution. The constitution cannot be unconstitutional, and always overrides anything other than amendments to the constitution.
That this case didn't get dismissed out of hand is pathetic in and of itself.
Any opinion in favor of Trump's executive order is going to be effectively an argument against the plain text of the Constitution, which would be absolutely repugnant for anyone in a position of judicial authority to do.
Also, Trump left the SCOTUS gallery after Sauer finished his arguments, although it struck me as an intimidation tactic for Trump to show up in the gallery at all.
I had that thought and I agree to an extent, but I think the hearing is also gives some level of legitimacy to the question, which is worse.
SCOTUS is, ostensibly, supposed to step in when there are legitimate constitutional questions at hand. Either through the core of the issue or due to disagreements across different circuits. An outright dismissal sends a message that the EO is so blatantly unconstitutional that it does not merit their time or consideration.
REMINDER: APRIL FOOL'S JOKES ARE PROHIBITED ON THIS SITE.
Do not share or make any such jokes. And please be extra mindful tomorrow when sharing links, tweets, etc., because it's too easy to mistake a poorly executed "joke" for the truth. This is a longstanding rule in this community. Thank you for complying.
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
(I’ll see myself out…)
The banner headline on a key Norwegian news site is that Trump is threatening to withdraw the USA from NATO. And no, that unfortunately is not an April fool’s joke – although it might be argued that it is the April utterance of a fool.
He’s mad his vass- err, allies won’t clean up the mess he made so he can extricate himself from it sans consequences and make it somebody else’s problem.
Just dandy that the Congressional GOP has no interest in checking this madness
Trump does not have the authority to withdraw the U.S. from NATO. It is another desperate attempt by Trump to claim power he does not have, as he gets slapped down by the courts for other such attempts.
No, but his voiced intentions are reverberating like a 9.2-Richter-scale earthquake through the political leaderships of America’s allies.
Also, Trump has toyed with the idea of leaving NATO all the time. So this isn't exactly new ground for him.
No, but you can still render it effectively useless just by questioning it
And the USA abandoning NATO is a huge boon for Russia and China.
Historians in the future will be baffled at how the U.S. decided to just voluntarily relinquish its hegemony because half of its political system got high on its own supply of esoteric culture war bullshit mixed in with jingoism
*galaxy brain voice* what if THIS is the April Fool's Joke?
The 2020 election conspiracy theorist candidates have now lost the SoS GOP primaries in both Michigan and now Arkansas in the past week. Reassuring to see. Those are the ones that would potentially challenge the results of elections down the road
Has anyone done an Excel sheet for all the state legislative seats up this year and added that D+10-12 shift we saw in the IA, FL and TX special elections?
Because I think Rs are going to lose way more seats there than they will for the Congressional ones.
Election Twitter compiles them I’m pretty sure.
Okay, first does anybody else find “complete and total endorsement” something that belongs in the Department of Redundancy Department?
Second, this is two polls now showing Roy Cooper with a double digit lead, and while the last one I could kind of write off as an outlier by a new polling company, YouGov is anything BUT that And Catawba College has been at this a while too. AND is on the ground in NC. So maybe rating Cooper’s odds at a Half-Stein was overly cautious or maybe Trump is putting a drag on Whatley’s (who has his “complete and total endorsement”). If Cooper pulls the Full Stein in this race, nobody will be happier than me, and nobody will be more nervous thanTed Budd.
Third… wasn’t Danny Tarkanian the basketball coach at UNLV back in the 80s? Seems like I remember his ugly mug on the sidelines when the Cardiac Pack of NCSU dropped them in the ‘83 NCAA Tournament on their way to the most improbable title in Final Four history.
Danny Tarkanian is the son of the basketball coach. He is not my favorite Armenian-American politician. A perennial candidate, he finally won a job as a county supervisor (or commissioner) in a small Nevada county.
Apropos your Department of Redundancy Department, in one of my university math textbooks, the following entries were found in the index:
Circular definition – See Tautology
Tautology – See Recursive definition
Recursive definition – See Redundancy
Redundancy – See Circular definition
Even textbook editors have a sense of humor, you just have to dig to find it.
In the old Soviet Union, state-funded (or "State-allowed-to-live / stay out of prison) authors & scientists used to bury their state criticisms in the footnotes. Sometimes quite extensive, but apparently rarely read by the censors.
Even if Cooper wins by a massive margin, I don't think Ted Budd will moderate his positions or votes.
He probably thinks the 2028 presidential election turnout will help him stay in the Senate. Be nice to see him and those three MAGA state Supreme Court judges washed out despite that.
Budd is high on his own supply. That guy has absolutely nothing on offer except his blind fealty to Tangerine Cthulhu, and that’s becoming more a liability than an asset lately. I hesitate to call two polls a trend, but two points do determine a one, if not a pattern and the last two polls showed Whatley trailing Cooper by a Full Stein. If that’s not just noise, then a Trump endorsement might turn out to be kryptonite by the time November arrives, and it’ll probably only get worse from there.
Oh, if Budd loses in 2028, I will rub my MAGA brother's nose in it. (He worked at the Greensboro airport and met Budd there while he was slumming it in the House.)
He lives in TX now, so if Cooper AND Talarico win in November, I will be sending him memes and crowing big time.
Hall of Fame basketball coach Tark the Shark was Jerry Tarkanian. He died in 2015. In addition to UNLV he also coached at Long Beach State and Fresno State, as well as 3 high schools, two community colleges and an NBA team (20 games as head coach for the Spurs in 1992).
Almost took the Lakers job too
Yeah… he was the one always chewing on a towel, right?
From a North Carolina perspective, I don’t think there’s any real shot Stein will go for Senate in 2028. He can cakewalk to reelection by another double digit margin based on his current approval ratings. I think he could be talked into a Senate run when Roy Cooper retires, either in 2032 or 2038, though. 2032 would make sense if Cooper is planning only a single term, and Stein is term-limited then. But 2028 is too early—he seems to love being governor too much. He’d probably easily beat Budd though, you’re right.
Jackson is pretty widely seen by state Democrats as the 2028 Senate frontrunner, and I like his odds against Budd this far out. He’s proven his ability to win a significant number of Trump voters already, and his political instincts are phenomenal.
I think Jackson is a GREAT candidate. If he runs against Budd, he'll probably announce it in January once Cooper is sworn in.
I was using “Full-Stein” (and “Half-Stein”) as a unit of measure equaling roughly 15 points in the polls (Stein’s margin over Mark Robinson). If you weren't here yesterday when the poll came out putting Cooper a Full-Stein ahead of Whatley’s, the reference isn’t as clear. For what it’s worth, I think a lot of that margin is owed to … Mark Robinson. I think Stein would have won *anyway*, but he wouldn't have won in a walk like he did. I like Stein a lot. He was my state senator when I still lived in Raleigh and before he ran for AG, and I walsh thought he did a good job repping the district.
And I wouldn’t mind seeing him run for Senate, but not in 2028. I could see him following Cooper though, since Cooper’s term would be up at the same time Stein’s would see him term-limited out. My gut tells me Cooper’s only in this for one lap. He’ll be 75 when this term runs its course, and running for another term would make him 81 when it ended.
And I agree about Jackson. He’s got the energy, the popularity and experience with the DC machine because of his time in the House (brief as it was).. My only hesitation is who would replace him as AG?
"Complete and total endorsement" is not only tautological, but it's not even accurate these days, what with them being moved on a whim and/or shared with an opponent.
Hmmm, "nobody will be happier than me" suggests that we'll need a happy-dance contest or something between you and MPC to know for sure. 🙂 MPC might be 23 votes ahead at the moment.
I'm waiting for a triple redundancy, such as the infamous "new and novel innovations." (I think this was Alexander Haig in the Reagan administration.)
Is the Wisconsin judicial decision a surprise? How damaging is it? And how long does this delay a more-equitable distribution of political representation for the State of Wisconsin?
I'm not surprised by it.
As for the Congressional redistricting, I think if Dems win a state trifecta in WI this year, they will redraw theirs to be 50-50 in 2027 for the 2028 cycle.
They also have to put independent an independent redistricting commission like Michigan’s on the ballot so they don’t get locked out of the process after 2030 again like they did in 2010. Either that or redraw the legislative maps to make the Dem legislative majorities wave proof, which seems less likely. They’d have to have several more districts that have strips going into Madison and Milwaukee, which may end up being quite risky and could spark a backlash in a state where Dems are more likely to be held to the “good government” standard.
That and Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina if we somehow win the trifecta in the latter. Pass that shit immediately.
Yup. NC is tough since we need 60% of the legislature to put something on the ballot, which we almost certainly cannot get.
We can at least pass a bill and that would be good enough to hold through 2032 barring Republican supermajorities overturning a Stein veto.
Most realistic option towards un-fucking North Carolina state government remains winning back the NCSC in 2028 though.
A state trifecta can rein in the lawless NCSC by shortening the mandatory retirement age for judges and allowing the governor to appoint replacements he/she chooses -- and not from a list of 3 provided by the party of the outgoing one.
So, according to the AP, TACO will be at the SCOTUS hearing on birthright citizenship today.
How much money on the guy falling asleep while trying to 'intimidate' "his" judges?
FL GOV Vindman with big 1st quarter haul $8.2 million 6 million COH https://x.com/chrismeagher/status/2039328956931776853?s=20
Sen, not gov
oops
You could edit it.
That's amazing. FL is an expensive state to campaign and he's gonna need all the money he can get (plus a major volunteer GOTV campaign).
Precisely. I would be just as interested in hearing how many volunteers the Vindman Campaign has recruited.
Can't wait to see Talarico's numbers.
As long as the DSCC/national groups aren’t diverting money here, sounds fine with me.
The amount Vindman raised exceeded what Moody raised during all of 2025 (including what she transferred) and he has more cash than she had as of 12/31. (Her 12/31 COH was $5.1 million.) According to the Vindman campaign, “the average donation was $39.44, with 27,600 of the contributions coming from Floridians.“ https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/01/vindman-fundraising-florida-senate-bid-00853729
https://x.com/trisha4colorado/status/
CO-4: 2024 Democratic nominee Trisha Calvarese is out, making Eileen Laubacher the presumptive nominee to face Rep. Lauren Boebert.
Another minor candidate, little-known progressive John Padora, failed to make the ballot.
PA Governor Susquehanna:
Shapiro 58
Garrity 36
https://x.com/SusquehannaPR/status/2039323234047340873?s=20
Man, these polls for PA GOV and NC U.S. SEN are really getting lopsided.
I’m presuming this is, at least privately, part of why TACO wants to TACO on Iran, in the hopes they narrow a bit once fighting “ends”
But Shapiro is well above 50, while Cooper's best is 50.
Which shows how tough of an incumbent Shapiro is for the GOP to unseat. They had their chance in 2022 and absolutely blew it with Doug Mastriano.
Supreme Court Birthright Citizenship case - Listening to oral arguments right now via CNN.
So far, two of the three liberals (Jackson hasn't questioned Trump's Solicitor General yet, unless I tuned in after she spoke) and Roberts appear to be clearly against Trump's citizenship executive order, especially Roberts. I would expect Jackson to be aligned with the other two liberals on this case.
It's difficult to pin down the positions of the other five conservative Justices (a potential bad sign for Trump). Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch seem to be leaning in favor of the Trump executive order. The swing votes appear to be Kavanaugh and Barrett, with the three liberals and Roberts likely to support striking down the EO.
What makes you think that? Even the GOP aligned judges are skeptical. Alito asked Sauer to address the humanitarian issue with people who are here, arrested and deported, but have established roots in terms of domicile. Yes, THAT guy.
One attorney who's listening to the arguments (JayJayLegal) thinks this will be a 8-1 or 9-0 decision against Trump's birthright citizenship EO.
Listening to the aruments some more (Jackson started questioning Sauer moments ago), Sauer struggled immensely with Kavanaugh and Barrett's questioning. This is likely at least a 6-3 ruling against Trump in a couple of months or so, if not even more lopsided against Trump.
The vibe I got from SCOTUSBlog was lopsided against EO, with an Alito/Thomas concurrence suggesting they’d be open-minded about a redefinition of birthright citizenship if Congress spearheaded it
The case is a joke. The text of the 14th amendment is clear that if you are born here and remain a resident, you're a citizen. And even if it weren't clear, you can't change the constitution by executive order.
Now that Cecilia Wang is presenting the ACLU's side of the arguments, Thomas (!!!) didn't seem to aggressively question Wang.
This could be an unanimous ruling against Trump in a couple of months.
Anything short of a 9-0 ruling will be an indictment of the current court. Birthright citizenship is explicitly, unambiguously, and clearly spelled out in the constitution. The constitution cannot be unconstitutional, and always overrides anything other than amendments to the constitution.
That this case didn't get dismissed out of hand is pathetic in and of itself.
Agreed.
Any opinion in favor of Trump's executive order is going to be effectively an argument against the plain text of the Constitution, which would be absolutely repugnant for anyone in a position of judicial authority to do.
Also, Trump left the SCOTUS gallery after Sauer finished his arguments, although it struck me as an intimidation tactic for Trump to show up in the gallery at all.
Sometimes 9-0 or 8-1is better than a dismissal. It puts it to bed.
I had a similar thought, a fully briefed and argued opinion could kill the idea more effectively.
I had that thought and I agree to an extent, but I think the hearing is also gives some level of legitimacy to the question, which is worse.
SCOTUS is, ostensibly, supposed to step in when there are legitimate constitutional questions at hand. Either through the core of the issue or due to disagreements across different circuits. An outright dismissal sends a message that the EO is so blatantly unconstitutional that it does not merit their time or consideration.
https://x.com/i/status/2039367957260709909
From @Taniel:
UPDATE: Wisconsin turnout, 6 days out
—218K ppl have already voted
(Compares to 405K at equivalent time in 2025)
—31.5% of ballots cast so far are in Dane & Milwaukee
(31.3% at equivalent time in 2025)
—18.3% are in conservative WOW counties
(19.5% at equivalent time in 2025)