Morning Digest: Court greenlights amendment that would end Arizona's partisan primary system

But Republicans are promoting a rival measure to keep the status quo in place

Make Elections Fair Arizona wants to end the Grand Canyon State’s current election system (Credit: Make Elections Fair Arizona)

Leading Off

AZ Ballot

The Arizona Supreme Court unanimously ruled on Friday that votes would indeed be counted for an amendment to abolish partisan primaries and institute a brand-new election system in this swing state.

The decision affirms a lower court ruling saying that opponents of Proposition 140 had failed to demonstrate that the measure lacked enough signatures to appear on the ballot. While it was too late to prevent the amendment from appearing on the ballot, Arizonans didn't know until Friday if the justices would issue a ruling that would have forbidden election officials from counting votes in this contest.

This decision, though, removes the last legal obstacle that could have prevented voters from having a say on Proposition 140. However, the bipartisan group promoting the plan, Make Elections Fair Arizona, now needs to both pass its plan and convince voters to reject a rival amendment. 

Republican lawmakers, who oppose this voter-initiated proposal and ranked-choice voting more generally, last year placed Proposition 133 on the ballot to protect the current system by requiring separate party primaries. 

And it may not just affirm the status quo: Proposition 133's opponents have warned that it could require cities to utilize party primaries for local elections. The state's largest municipality, Phoenix, currently uses a nonpartisan system for mayor and city council races where the candidates are not identified by party affiliation.

If both Proposition 133 and Proposition 140 were to pass, the one with the highest vote total would become law regarding any conflicting provisions. KTAR Legal Analyst Barry Markson last month predicted that such a situation would lead to another lawsuit because backers of "the now-losing proposition would say that although part of the referendum was in conflict with the other, not the entire thing was." (A similar situation could unfold in Nebraska over two rival abortion amendments.)

And while a victory for just Proposition 140 would end party primaries for Congress, state, and county-level offices starting in 2026, it leaves it up to state officials to decide just what system would take its place. 

The plan requires all candidates, regardless of party, to run on a single primary ballot, with the top vote-getters advancing to the general election. However, Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs and the legislature would need to decide whether two, three, four, or five candidates would reach the general election, and they're allowed to choose different numbers for different posts. If three or more contenders are allowed to move forward, then a ranked-choice voting system would be used to determine the winner.

The plan also would require "additional candidates" to advance in contests where more than one person can be elected, such as for the state House and the state Corporation Commission. It would be up to the governor and legislature to decide how many contenders could move forward within the parameters of the amendment.

If these state leaders failed to agree on all of these details by Nov. 1, 2025, though, it would be up to the secretary of state―a post currently held by Democrat Adrian Fontes―to make these calls. The legislature may only change the number of candidates who can advance "[n]ot more than once every six years."

3Q Fundraising

• CO-08: Yadira Caraveo (D-inc): $2.2 million raised, $2 million in cash on hand

• NY-04: Laura Gillen (D): $2.4 million raised

• WI-08: Kristin Lyerly (D): $1.1 million raised

Senate

MD-Sen

Barack Obama is the star of a new ad from Democrat Angela Alsobrooks that features the former president telling the audience, "Control of the Senate could come down to Maryland." Obama does not mention Republican Larry Hogan, who needs to win over a significant number of Democrats in order to have a chance in this dark blue state.

Alsobrooks isn't the only Senate candidate Obama is promoting. He's also recorded a digital and radio ad for Elissa Slotkin in Michigan, as well as a digital spot for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida.

Governors

IN-Gov

The Democratic Governors Association announced Friday that it was donating $600,000 to Democrat Jennifer McCormick's campaign for governor of Indiana, which makes this its first significant financial contribution in what's unexpectedly become an eventful contest. Politico's Adam Wren reports that this investment is almost as much as the $770,000 that McCormick has spent on ads.

Conservative organizations are also sending resources to elect Republican Mike Braun, who remains the frontrunner to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Eric Holcomb. Howey Politics reports that the Republican Governor's Association has provided him with $250,000, while a pair of state GOP groups together gave him another $200,000.

House

NY-01

Republican incumbent Nick LaLota has released an internal poll from Fabrizio, Lee, and Associates that shows the freshman congressman outpacing Democrat John Avlon 50-42 in New York's 1st District. This survey, which is the first we've seen of this matchup, also finds Donald Trump carrying this eastern Long Island constituency 50-44 four years after he carried it just 50-49. 

Avlon, who is a former CNN anchor and the co-founder of the centrist group No Labels, is waging a well-funded but uphill campaign to retake a seat that Republicans have held since the 2014 red wave. The Democratic legislature actually made the Suffolk County-based 1st District slightly redder last year during the most recent round of redistricting, and the GOP has performed well locally in recent elections.

So far, most major outside groups from both parties are directing their resources elsewhere. The one outfit that's logged any independent expenditures during the general election is Welcome PAC, a Democratic-aligned outfit that has spent nearly $1 million on digital ads against LaLota.

Ballot Measures

CO Ballot

Rep. Diana DeGette has come out in opposition to a ballot measure that would institute a top-four primary system in the state, a move that the Colorado Sun says makes her the most high-profile Democrat to urge a "no" vote on Proposition 131. "This initiative will introduce more money into our politics and add layers of confusion to a system that isn’t broken," the Denver congresswoman said in a statement. "At a time when election deniers are doing their best to break trust in our elections, this is the wrong time for such a drastic change."

Several Democratic legislators and local elected officials, including state Senate President Steve Fenberg, also recently announced their opposition to Proposition 131, while far-right Rep. Lauren Boebert also wants it to lose. The leadership of both the state Democratic and Republican parties are each calling for the plan's defeat as well.

On the "yes" side, the mayors of Colorado's three largest cities—Democrat Mike Johnston of Denver, Republican Mike Coffman of Aurora, and independent Yemi Mobolade of Colorado Springs—all declared their support last week. Gov. Jared Polis and Sen. John Hickenlooper are also each backing Proposition 131. 

The "yes" side enjoys a massive financial advantage thanks in large part to Kent Thiry, the wealthy former healthcare executive who is promoting the plan. Colorado Politics reports that new fundraising reports show Colorado Voters First, which is the main group behind Proposition 131, has raised a total of $9.2 million. Two organizations trying to stop the measure, by contrast, have taken in all of $116,000 between them.

ND Ballot

The Republican firm WPA Intelligence, polling on behalf of the North Dakota News Cooperative, shows a 38-28 plurality in favor of an amendment to require all future citizen-initiated measures to win voter approval in both a June primary and the subsequent November general election. 

A hefty 34%, though, remain undecided about Constitutional Measure 2, which would also impose other restrictions that would not apply to amendments that the GOP-dominated legislature might put before voters. This is the first survey we've seen of this contest. 

WPA also quizzes voters about the other four statewide constitutional amendments. Among these, Measure 5, which would legalize recreational marijuana, is ahead 45-40. The plan to do away with property taxes is failing, though, with a 40-28 spread in opposition to Measure 4. This plan is being promoted by former Rep. Rick Becker, a far-right figure who decisively lost the June GOP primary for the state's only U.S. House seat to Julie Fedorchak. 

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: HighGround Public Affairs for KTVK/KPHO: Ruben Gallego (D): 51, Kari Lake (R): 41 (48-45 Harris) (Aug.: 50-39 Gallego)

• NV-Sen: The Tarrance Group (R) for the Democracy Defense Project: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 48, Sam Brown (R): 41 (47-44 Harris)

• TX-Sen: CWS Research (R) for Texas Gun Rights: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 46, Colin Allred (D): 40 (51-41 Trump)

• NC-Gov: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Josh Stein (D): 53, Mark Robinson (R): 38 (51-47 Trump)

• CA Ballot: UC Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times: Raise minimum wage measure: Yes: 46, No: 36 (Aug.: 52-34 Yes)

• CA Ballot: UC Berkeley: Rent control measure: Yes: 37, No: 36 (Aug.: 40-34 Yes)

• CA Ballot: UC Berkeley: Expand felony charges measure: Yes: 60, No: 21 (Aug.: 56-23 Yes)

• San Francisco, CA Mayor: David Binder Research for Daniel Lurie: London Breed (inc): 23, Daniel Lurie: 22, Mark Farrell: 19, Aaron Peskin: 16, Ahsha Safaí: 4. In final round of simulated instant runoff: Lurie: 53, Breed (inc): 47. (All candidates are Democrats.)

CSW's Texas poll was completed nearly a month ago on Sept. 9, while The Tarrance Group's Nevada survey was finished on Sept. 19. RMG's poll of North Carolina was in the field after Hurricane Helene made landfall in the U.S. and caused widespread devastation throughout the Southeast, including in western North Carolina.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Win It Back PAC (Club for Growth affiliate) - anti-Ruben Gallego (D) (in English and Spanish)

• MT-Sen: Tim Sheehy (R) - anti-Jon Tester (D-inc) (here and here)

• NM-Sen: Martin Heinrich (D-inc)

• NV-Sen: Win It Back - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc)

• OH-Sen: Bernie Moreno (R) and the NRSC - anti-Sherrod Brown (D-inc)

• TX-Sen: Ted Cruz (R-inc) - anti-Colin Allred (D); Cruz

• AZ-01: Win It Back - anti-Amish Shah (D)

• AZ-02: Eli Crane (R-inc)

• AZ-06: Kirsten Engel (D) - anti-Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• CA-34: Jimmy Gomez (D-inc) (in English and Spanish)

• CA-49: Mike Levin (D-inc)

• IN-01: Randy Niemeyer (R)

• ME-02: DCCC - anti-Austin Theriault (R)

• NE-02: DCCC - anti-Don Bacon (R-inc)

• TN-07: Megan Barry (D)