A majority of registered voters nationally (55%) say they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, if the 2026 congressional elections were held today. 41% would support the Republican
We’re fast approaching a reverse 2010 midterm and the “weak” congressional ballot preference we’ve seen up until the fall for Democrats has now transitioned to big wave numbers pretty much everywhere.
2018 outlook already and we still got almost a year to go.
A 2010 sized shellacking for Republicans would be SO delicious, especially here in North Carolina. If we get the D+10 environment or better for state legislative races, we flip at least one state house and greatly reduce Phil Berger's majority in the state Senate.
The economy is about to go into a ditch, and it may happen just in time to completely annihilate whatever midterm chances the GOP have left.
I read in the FT that the AI companies would have to generate something like 4 Trillion in profits just to make back what has been spent on data centers and infrastructure, to break even on the investment already made. (currently they are losing money on EVERY customer)
By contrast, Apple, a phenomenally profitable, well run company with about as a strong a balance sheet you could think of, makes something like 115B in profits a year, meaning that even Apple would take 25 years or more to make that kind of money back.... and the kicker is, we have been building almost no new electricity generation capacity to match the buildout in data and computing capacity, just relying on our current grid, so in a few years there wont even be enough power in the US to run everything already built now. (a new nuclear plant can take a decade to 15 years from legislation to actually powering a lightbulb)
And yet, this has made the top 10 tech companies on the S&P 500, Nvidia and the like, so insanely valued and wealthy, it has dragged the market up almost 85% in 5 years.... while the bottom 60% have been getting crushed by inflation... something has to give, and the country has little runway left to turn it around..
What are the implications of this? Will AI fizzle out as an industry because it's not financially worthwhile? Will companies find ways to make AI actually profitable? Or will the existing companies become cemented as the only ones that can do business in AI because they already have infrastructure?
Massive collapse and consolidation like in the late 90s as the dotcom bubble burst. At that point Amazon lost 90% of its stock price, Cisco stock price collapsed and took 25 years to recover, hundreds of dotcom companies went bankrupt. (like Pets.com)
This is a little different in terms of investment, exposure, company structure etc, but you can expect these crazy tech valuations to return to earth as a lot of the losers get acquired or collapse, leading to a correction of some sort (20-30%?) as the hype dies down. The big players may have the scale to survive, but even OpenAI's Sam Altman was talking about maybe getting a government bailout/loans at some point. (this is a MASSIVE red flag)
If the guy heading up the tech company that's supposed to revolutionize everything is was discussing asking for govt support, the position is likely weaker than it may seem.
There are a lot of people in their 40s, 50s and 60s, who, despite the tarriffs, layoffs and all the other crazy **** are feeling pretty good, because their houses, their portfolios and the accounts are up 30-80%, which is giving the economic confidence and Trump a lot more support than they would have otherwise. Imagine a 30% correction hits these people and their wealth...
It will probably be similar to the 1983 video game crash and the dot-com bubble bursting circa 2000, but with far larger ramifications for the U.S. and global economies (especially compared to the video game crash, whose impacts were pretty much limited to that specific and narrow sector of the economy).
AOC has already come out against a potential bailout of AI companies and tech companies involved in AI, so I would expect the battle lines to be drawn along corporate/establishment and populist lines within both parties.
The worst-case scenario for AI would be no bailout and a massive collapse and consolidation of the AI industry. AI, despite arguably being a more flawed technology than video games were in the early 1980s or the internet was in the late 1990s, has established itself enough to avoid being completely eliminated as an industry, although the AI bubble bursting will bankrupt a lot of companies. Furthermore, a lot of people's retirement accounts (IRAs, 401(k)s, pensions, etc.) will face a massive loss in valuation because a lot of them are invested, either directly or indirectly, in AI company stocks, and this would be much worse than even the collapse of the dot-com bubble.
Remember, back in 1983, the video game industry, previously dominated by Atari but with a lot of competitors, all but died out until Nintendo entered the U.S. market with the Nintendo Entertainment System (which was named as such to avoid using the words "video", "game", and "console" in its official title despite clearly being a video game console) a couple of years after the video game crash. However, I don't think there's really a Nintendo-like savior of AI waiting in the wings because so many tech companies are involved in AI, so, like the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, what few AI or AI-involved companies emerge from an AI bust still in existence would be expected to dominate the AI industry, rather than a new market entrant to AI.
Why would anyone even consider a bailout of tech companies if AI burst? That's ridiculous. Tech companies and the banks in 2007-2008 are vastly different things. Preventing a worse financial meltdown made sense. Helping the head of Nvidia with his third mega yacht, or whatever, doesn't.
It’s important to note that AI capex is a much smaller slice of overall GDP than dotcom or especially shale oil were at their peaks.
That said, LLMs are not AGI and never will be. There’s a lot efficiency use in them but not $4tril worth. A 15-20% correction is likely sometime in the next two years (and indeed necessary), but a dotcom style burst seems at this point unlikely.
My guess is that a lot of the infra being built now eventually gets repurposed for some other kind of cloud networking use at scale at a steep discount to the buyer in 3-4 years
There's a lot of stuff AI does that is useful. The problem arises in that there is a mismatch between the hyped up uses and the productive uses.
Right now if a company can slap "AI" on their product stack somewhere, they do, simply to increase their appeal to investors. It doesn't matter what they do or what they make. I saw motherboard manufacturers calling themselves "AI first" companies, which makes absolutely zero sense for their product range. The stock market doesn't know or understand that though.
The uses that get by far the most hype are LLMs, which to my knowledge have no real pathway to serious profit. Maybe in the future there will be one, but there isn't a known bridge between the present and that future. It's an invest-first, hope for profit later, scenario. This is where Microsoft and Google and OpenAI and Oracle are funneling a ton of money.
The uses that actually do something useful aren't exciting enough or are too technical to get investors excited. I saw talk in the past about using AI (really Machine Learning (ML), but that's a rant for another day) to enable long range missiles to track specific targets even after losing communications due to jamming. If an anti-ship missile can run software that has been trained to identify a class of warships based on local-only sensors, it can find and hit those ships even if the missile is being jammed and/or if the ships moved. There's a lot of potential uses like that (most non-military), but they're all boring to the general public and also they don't need $500b in investments each.
Another interesting use is one that predates the current AI boom. I'm not sure about Android but on my iphone if I tag someone in a local picture, my phone will recognize that person in every other photo on my device. That is ML based and it's the type of computational work that was really difficult to do beforehand but is now relatively easy for a low power phone to do in the background without impacting battery life.
So on a technical level the basic systems will stick around, but the hyped up uses may or may not. I cannot talk about economic impacts as that's outside my wheelhouse.
Even within LLMs there’s a big difference between agentic models (useful, streamlined efficiencies from machine learning) and generative (bullshit that we call “AI slop” but which is largely what’s consumer facing)
this^, it makes me scared for my parent's retirement, but it gives me hope we kick their ass so bad in 26 that we can start a 1932 style realignment come 2028.
I will not even speak of what happens if we fail to deliver a vison like we did after taking power in 2009. We must punish those that broke the law (Miller, Homan, etc.), offer an optimistic future for the country, and start massively (in addition to massive social spending on everything) spending on education, particularly online literacy and civics. I.e., the mirror image of the paul weyrich richard viguire backed movement that turned began attacking liberal democracy in the wake of watergate.
I'd like to see a link to a spreadsheet showing all the upcoming elections. I know there are several in the next few weeks, one in Georgia. Is there someplace I can see where they all are? There are so many elections, and we have to be aware of them all so we can make sure anyone we know who lives there are voting. I guess I know there are lots of sights out there but is there one place I can trust to find all the upcoming elections that is constantly updated? It would be great to have a link to these elections in all your emails/newsletters.
I really love Nathaniel Rakitch's G-cal "calendar of obscure elections." Not 100% (he didn't have the Louisiana local elections from last week, for example) but pretty comprehensive.
If you click on The Downballot at the top of the post, it'll take you to their main Substack page. Click About and then scroll down to find a link to all their various data files, including special election calendars. Or, go to the-downballot.com directly.
SCOTUS would have to act before Thanksgiving to either deny TX's appeal or approve it via shadow docket. Since Alito oversees the swath of states that cover TX, he may approve it.
The question is whether the court will stay the three-judge panel decision while they decide the case. They could take it but not grant a stay. Even less likely is that they don't take it at all. This discusses the possibilities:
Yeah, I read that. The court decision issued yesterday was thorough and pointed out all the inconsistencies stated by Blondi and the TX GOP.
Still, I expect SCOTUS to issue some kind of decision or hold to let the Abbott-mander be used. If they let the 2021 map be used for 2026, I will be pleasantly surprised.
One interesting note (which may not apply with this hacky court) is that the map that TX would revert to is one that legislators themselves passed without any outside pressure or court action — so it’s hard to argue harm when the status quo map had the green light by defendants in 2021.
the justice assigned to the specific circuit court of appeals handles appeals from that specific circuit. for example, Justice Jackson has 1st Circuit responsibility
I don't know if there's a defined process; traditionally the Chief Justice is the circuit justice for the D.C. Cir. and the 4th Cir. (which covers Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina). Another tradition/quasi-rule is that justices oversee the circuits where they come from; e.g. Sotomayor is the circuit justice for the 2nd Cir., Alito for the 3rd Cir., Barrett for the 7th and Gorsuch for the 10th. I think Jackson got the 1st because Breyer had it before her.
Adding the Fed Cir to what usually(/always?) goes to the CJ, and Thomas was originally confirmed to the DC Cir as from GA and has the 11th Cir assignment. Kagan was confirmed as from MA to SCOTUS, but yeah, I imagine she preferred keeping the 9th after Kennedy and let the 1st go to Jackson.
Absolutely hilarious that after picking this redistricting fight, Republicans are looking like net losers once the dust settles. Truly the Find Out portion of the program.
My question is: are the national Democrats helping in the Tennessee special election in December? We grassroots Dems also need how to donate to this and other elections.
I've loved Steyer's work in the past launching campaigns and pouring money into candidates and causes I support but I don't know about this. Part of me thinks he could be the CA version of JB Pritzker, which is a good thing, but at the same time, the state really needs someone who understands it. At this point, I was leaning towards Porter but I'm now leaning more towards Becerra.
By the way, I loved his ads supporting Prop 50. One thing I have to get him, he can push a hell of a message. I'll always respect him for being an early leader in the call to impeach Trump during his first term.
Don't think it's that great. Republicans are arguing it was done to impermissibly bolster Hispanic representation rather than for partisan reasons. But there's no paper trail supporting that unlike in the Texas case.
Because the gerrymandered map would have required Lloyd Doggett to run against fellow incumbent Greg Casar, Doggett announced that he would retire. However, the annulment of the gerrymander might enable a distinguished progressive to continue his career.
Doggett is a good legislator, who I think wants to chair Ways and Means (and I think he'd be better than Neal). I just don't see Neal giving it up first or it going to Doggett if he does (Sánchez, Sewell, DelBene are much more likely). If the current maps hold, Doggett should still retire and just endorse a preferred successor.
god forbid he endorse a successor, as we see national dems trying to make an issue out of one house seat's primary in deep blue cook county illinois.
National democrats are currently proving LBJ's maxim that the only difference between a liberal and a cannibal is that a cannibal doesn't eat their own. Mind you the Epstein files are in the news, the economy is teetering, inflation is up, and democrats in the house want to shame Chuy Garcia for doing what every pol in chicago has always done. Kinda funny chuy doesn't get to play by the same rules the cook county machine got to play by, but i'm sure that's not because of his opposition to rahm back in the day.
Anna Eskamani, high profile progressive in the state house who's running for Mayor of Orlando in 2027, shared a draft map apparently going around repub advocacy circles (she speculates it originates directly from DeSantis staffers) to lobby legislative leaders to take up redistricting. Would attempt to axe out the districts of Max Frost (FL-10), Kathy Castor (FL-14), Lois Frankel (FL-22), Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-25). Remaining Dem seats would only be Darren Soto (FL-09), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (FL-20) and Frederica Wilson (FL-24). It's really insane to me that until 2020, the delegation was 14R-13D and could be down to 25R-3D...
Lol, that map assumes that Republicans will continue to win Florida by double digit margins indefinitely. How quickly they forget the special elections earlier this year, when Republicans underperformed Trump by 16% in the 6th and 22% in the 1st. If that continues, this map could be a massive dummymander.
I haven't seen anything from Florida in the last 10 years to suggest Republicans shouldn't be confident about winning by double-digit margins indefinitely. It will continue to be a sponge for greedy, conservative retirees. Even if the Hispanic population reverts to 2016 numbers, this map probably wouldn't be a dummymander because a few seats under existing lines would already be poised to bounce back to Dems. Not seeing much downside potential for Florida Republicans to adopt this map.
There's usually a handful of states that go counter to the trend of an even year general election. Florida is a very plausible pick as a highlight of that group for 2026. It already was in 2018.
I think that was posted a couple of days ago. The Florida Supreme Court would have to totally ignore the 2010 redistricting amendment’s language regarding partisan lines to uphold that. Which is possible
I really think they dgaf. They didn't care about the FL-05 case that blatantly is against the Fair Districts Amendment and FL-13 isn't supposed to cross Tampa Bay. It's controlled by DeSantis hack appointees, Canady the hyperpartisan (former Clinton impeachment manager with so many other ethical issues) and Labarga as the one normal Republican (who has to retire in 2027).
The Ohio Republican majority have fast-tracked a BS "election integrity" bill, which not only imposes citizenship requirements for voter registration but eliminates the 4-day grace period for absentee ballots postmarked before Election Day (save military and overseas voters), requiring that all ballots need to be delivered to the county boards of elections offices by 7:30 p.m. on Election Night in order to be counted.
They expect lame duck Governor DeWine to sign it. But if SCOTUS rules in favor of Mississippi, does that mean any grace period for ballots get reinstated for states that removed it, ie all Republican controlled?
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) will reportedly announce a run for governor of California tomorrow night on Jimmy Kimmel Live, a day after businessman Tom Steyer's announcement.
This is why I wish Harris or Padilla would have ran when they had a chance. Porter is now considered too controversial while Becerra + co. aren't picking up enough support to get over her or the Republicans. I imagine the easiest Democrat to sacrifice himself is Tony Thurmond, but I don't think he'll even drop out.
Though I don't personally believe her attitude towards reporters and her staff would necessarily derail a potential gubernatorial administration, the shifts in support are clear - she got quite a bit of backlash. However, I do believe Swalwell is even more controversial than her, given his connection with a Chinese spy and his ill-fated presidential run.
The story with Swalwell’s connection with the Chinese spy was already closed and he had not been accused of any wrongdoing. He was fully cooperative of the FBI investigation.
If Swalwell is more controversial, I don’t see it. John Kerry’s history with Skull & Bones is more controversial than with Swalwell.
I don't suspect Swalwell of any specific wrongdoing, but I am of the firm belief that when there is smoke, there is fire. The vast majority of elected officials in this country have skeletons in their closet, and Swalwell is no exception.
I'm not sure the shifts in support matter all that much. The percentages are too small. I think she went from polling at around 15-18% to more like 12-15%?
Of course this comes with a clear downside for her as well: by the same token that the shift in support matters little, her current lead matters little. Small 3-5% shifts are not substantial in most elections and can easily be the result of statistical noise or the differences between pollsters. Likewise, being in first place with 15% of the vote is far from a commanding position: falling out of the top two or dwindling to irrelevance is, while not guaranteed, not improbable at that polling level.
Not really. It would likely be a 2-3 person race between Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra. All the other candidates are making little noise at this point.
Tom Steyer might contribute something but knowing how his presidential run fared, I don’t see how he’s going to make an impact at all.
TN-7: After seeing the types of ads GOP PACs are running against Behn, I am very bearish on her chances. They include clips of her saying things that will surely turn off voters in that district. It's quite unfortunate considering she barely beat out other candidates in the primary who would've fit this district better.
It's unlikely a democrat could win the district in a first place, even in a blue wave year. The notion that a moderate democrat is automatically better than Behn is also flawed - progressives can and do win over unfavorable territory. It's about convincing voters to support left leaning policies, not shifting to the right to appease them. I highly doubt behn will win but it's not because she isn't a good fit for the district because she's too far left.
It’s about presenting yourself as someone open to ideas from all sides. There’s no progressive in Congress representing a seat as conservative as this one who was able to “convince voters to support left-leaning policies.”
I can't think of any progressive or DSA type who has pulled off a win in a solidly conservative district in the past 8 years. I just know Conor Lamb was able to win in PA-18 when it was R+11 which is about what TN-7 is today, and he presented himself as a moderate.
Lamb certainly doesn't sound like much of a moderate these days. He's trying to attack Fetterman for a potential 2028 challenge from the left. And his successor, Deluzio, is on the left too, but not as quite as progressive as some of his colleagues
That's now, not them. When is the last time a progressive Democrat convinced right-wing voters to support them? I guess the last time Sherrod Brown won? And other than him?
I'm not suggesting there is currently - I'm saying that it can happen with the right campaign, and that being a progressive does not automatically discount a campaign in a district like this.
Marist Poll:
A majority of registered voters nationally (55%) say they would support the Democratic candidate for Congress in their district, if the 2026 congressional elections were held today. 41% would support the Republican
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/a-look-to-the-2026-midterms-november-2025/
We’re fast approaching a reverse 2010 midterm and the “weak” congressional ballot preference we’ve seen up until the fall for Democrats has now transitioned to big wave numbers pretty much everywhere.
2018 outlook already and we still got almost a year to go.
A 2010 sized shellacking for Republicans would be SO delicious, especially here in North Carolina. If we get the D+10 environment or better for state legislative races, we flip at least one state house and greatly reduce Phil Berger's majority in the state Senate.
The economy is about to go into a ditch, and it may happen just in time to completely annihilate whatever midterm chances the GOP have left.
I read in the FT that the AI companies would have to generate something like 4 Trillion in profits just to make back what has been spent on data centers and infrastructure, to break even on the investment already made. (currently they are losing money on EVERY customer)
By contrast, Apple, a phenomenally profitable, well run company with about as a strong a balance sheet you could think of, makes something like 115B in profits a year, meaning that even Apple would take 25 years or more to make that kind of money back.... and the kicker is, we have been building almost no new electricity generation capacity to match the buildout in data and computing capacity, just relying on our current grid, so in a few years there wont even be enough power in the US to run everything already built now. (a new nuclear plant can take a decade to 15 years from legislation to actually powering a lightbulb)
And yet, this has made the top 10 tech companies on the S&P 500, Nvidia and the like, so insanely valued and wealthy, it has dragged the market up almost 85% in 5 years.... while the bottom 60% have been getting crushed by inflation... something has to give, and the country has little runway left to turn it around..
What are the implications of this? Will AI fizzle out as an industry because it's not financially worthwhile? Will companies find ways to make AI actually profitable? Or will the existing companies become cemented as the only ones that can do business in AI because they already have infrastructure?
Massive collapse and consolidation like in the late 90s as the dotcom bubble burst. At that point Amazon lost 90% of its stock price, Cisco stock price collapsed and took 25 years to recover, hundreds of dotcom companies went bankrupt. (like Pets.com)
This is a little different in terms of investment, exposure, company structure etc, but you can expect these crazy tech valuations to return to earth as a lot of the losers get acquired or collapse, leading to a correction of some sort (20-30%?) as the hype dies down. The big players may have the scale to survive, but even OpenAI's Sam Altman was talking about maybe getting a government bailout/loans at some point. (this is a MASSIVE red flag)
https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/sam-altman-distances-openai-from-data-center-bailout-talk
If the guy heading up the tech company that's supposed to revolutionize everything is was discussing asking for govt support, the position is likely weaker than it may seem.
There are a lot of people in their 40s, 50s and 60s, who, despite the tarriffs, layoffs and all the other crazy **** are feeling pretty good, because their houses, their portfolios and the accounts are up 30-80%, which is giving the economic confidence and Trump a lot more support than they would have otherwise. Imagine a 30% correction hits these people and their wealth...
It will probably be similar to the 1983 video game crash and the dot-com bubble bursting circa 2000, but with far larger ramifications for the U.S. and global economies (especially compared to the video game crash, whose impacts were pretty much limited to that specific and narrow sector of the economy).
AOC has already come out against a potential bailout of AI companies and tech companies involved in AI, so I would expect the battle lines to be drawn along corporate/establishment and populist lines within both parties.
The worst-case scenario for AI would be no bailout and a massive collapse and consolidation of the AI industry. AI, despite arguably being a more flawed technology than video games were in the early 1980s or the internet was in the late 1990s, has established itself enough to avoid being completely eliminated as an industry, although the AI bubble bursting will bankrupt a lot of companies. Furthermore, a lot of people's retirement accounts (IRAs, 401(k)s, pensions, etc.) will face a massive loss in valuation because a lot of them are invested, either directly or indirectly, in AI company stocks, and this would be much worse than even the collapse of the dot-com bubble.
Remember, back in 1983, the video game industry, previously dominated by Atari but with a lot of competitors, all but died out until Nintendo entered the U.S. market with the Nintendo Entertainment System (which was named as such to avoid using the words "video", "game", and "console" in its official title despite clearly being a video game console) a couple of years after the video game crash. However, I don't think there's really a Nintendo-like savior of AI waiting in the wings because so many tech companies are involved in AI, so, like the 2000 dot-com bubble burst, what few AI or AI-involved companies emerge from an AI bust still in existence would be expected to dominate the AI industry, rather than a new market entrant to AI.
Why would anyone even consider a bailout of tech companies if AI burst? That's ridiculous. Tech companies and the banks in 2007-2008 are vastly different things. Preventing a worse financial meltdown made sense. Helping the head of Nvidia with his third mega yacht, or whatever, doesn't.
It’s important to note that AI capex is a much smaller slice of overall GDP than dotcom or especially shale oil were at their peaks.
That said, LLMs are not AGI and never will be. There’s a lot efficiency use in them but not $4tril worth. A 15-20% correction is likely sometime in the next two years (and indeed necessary), but a dotcom style burst seems at this point unlikely.
My guess is that a lot of the infra being built now eventually gets repurposed for some other kind of cloud networking use at scale at a steep discount to the buyer in 3-4 years
There's a lot of stuff AI does that is useful. The problem arises in that there is a mismatch between the hyped up uses and the productive uses.
Right now if a company can slap "AI" on their product stack somewhere, they do, simply to increase their appeal to investors. It doesn't matter what they do or what they make. I saw motherboard manufacturers calling themselves "AI first" companies, which makes absolutely zero sense for their product range. The stock market doesn't know or understand that though.
The uses that get by far the most hype are LLMs, which to my knowledge have no real pathway to serious profit. Maybe in the future there will be one, but there isn't a known bridge between the present and that future. It's an invest-first, hope for profit later, scenario. This is where Microsoft and Google and OpenAI and Oracle are funneling a ton of money.
The uses that actually do something useful aren't exciting enough or are too technical to get investors excited. I saw talk in the past about using AI (really Machine Learning (ML), but that's a rant for another day) to enable long range missiles to track specific targets even after losing communications due to jamming. If an anti-ship missile can run software that has been trained to identify a class of warships based on local-only sensors, it can find and hit those ships even if the missile is being jammed and/or if the ships moved. There's a lot of potential uses like that (most non-military), but they're all boring to the general public and also they don't need $500b in investments each.
Another interesting use is one that predates the current AI boom. I'm not sure about Android but on my iphone if I tag someone in a local picture, my phone will recognize that person in every other photo on my device. That is ML based and it's the type of computational work that was really difficult to do beforehand but is now relatively easy for a low power phone to do in the background without impacting battery life.
So on a technical level the basic systems will stick around, but the hyped up uses may or may not. I cannot talk about economic impacts as that's outside my wheelhouse.
Even within LLMs there’s a big difference between agentic models (useful, streamlined efficiencies from machine learning) and generative (bullshit that we call “AI slop” but which is largely what’s consumer facing)
this^, it makes me scared for my parent's retirement, but it gives me hope we kick their ass so bad in 26 that we can start a 1932 style realignment come 2028.
I will not even speak of what happens if we fail to deliver a vison like we did after taking power in 2009. We must punish those that broke the law (Miller, Homan, etc.), offer an optimistic future for the country, and start massively (in addition to massive social spending on everything) spending on education, particularly online literacy and civics. I.e., the mirror image of the paul weyrich richard viguire backed movement that turned began attacking liberal democracy in the wake of watergate.
Won't Trump give lifetime pardons to everyone in his administration before he exits, assuming he does?
the hague exists for a reason
AI will have a lot of uses, but I'm skeptical that it will be profitable enough to justify current market valuations.
so is that the same thing as GCB D+14?
I'd like to see a link to a spreadsheet showing all the upcoming elections. I know there are several in the next few weeks, one in Georgia. Is there someplace I can see where they all are? There are so many elections, and we have to be aware of them all so we can make sure anyone we know who lives there are voting. I guess I know there are lots of sights out there but is there one place I can trust to find all the upcoming elections that is constantly updated? It would be great to have a link to these elections in all your emails/newsletters.
See my comment below, which I meant to post in reply to you, instead of as a new comment thread
I really love Nathaniel Rakitch's G-cal "calendar of obscure elections." Not 100% (he didn't have the Louisiana local elections from last week, for example) but pretty comprehensive.
https://x.com/baseballot/status/1929560172889809249?s=20
If you click on The Downballot at the top of the post, it'll take you to their main Substack page. Click About and then scroll down to find a link to all their various data files, including special election calendars. Or, go to the-downballot.com directly.
SCOTUS would have to act before Thanksgiving to either deny TX's appeal or approve it via shadow docket. Since Alito oversees the swath of states that cover TX, he may approve it.
The question is whether the court will stay the three-judge panel decision while they decide the case. They could take it but not grant a stay. Even less likely is that they don't take it at all. This discusses the possibilities:
https://www.democracydocket.com/news-alerts/what-comes-next-for-texas-blocked-gop-gerrymander/
Yeah, I read that. The court decision issued yesterday was thorough and pointed out all the inconsistencies stated by Blondi and the TX GOP.
Still, I expect SCOTUS to issue some kind of decision or hold to let the Abbott-mander be used. If they let the 2021 map be used for 2026, I will be pleasantly surprised.
One interesting note (which may not apply with this hacky court) is that the map that TX would revert to is one that legislators themselves passed without any outside pressure or court action — so it’s hard to argue harm when the status quo map had the green light by defendants in 2021.
How is it decided which justice oversees which states?
the justice assigned to the specific circuit court of appeals handles appeals from that specific circuit. for example, Justice Jackson has 1st Circuit responsibility
I don't know if there's a defined process; traditionally the Chief Justice is the circuit justice for the D.C. Cir. and the 4th Cir. (which covers Maryland, Virginia and North Carolina). Another tradition/quasi-rule is that justices oversee the circuits where they come from; e.g. Sotomayor is the circuit justice for the 2nd Cir., Alito for the 3rd Cir., Barrett for the 7th and Gorsuch for the 10th. I think Jackson got the 1st because Breyer had it before her.
Adding the Fed Cir to what usually(/always?) goes to the CJ, and Thomas was originally confirmed to the DC Cir as from GA and has the 11th Cir assignment. Kagan was confirmed as from MA to SCOTUS, but yeah, I imagine she preferred keeping the 9th after Kennedy and let the 1st go to Jackson.
The only other justices who cover more than one Circuit are Kavanaugh (6th and 8th) and Alito (3rd and 5th)
(And Roberts)
yes, considering we both already went over that I assumed that was taken as read.
Why do they in particular cover more than one circuit?
No idea!
https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/circuitassignments.aspx
That’s why we need 13 justices to cover 13 circuits!
There's definitely some logic behind that, but 99% of Americans have no idea how many circuit courts there are in America.
Absolutely hilarious that after picking this redistricting fight, Republicans are looking like net losers once the dust settles. Truly the Find Out portion of the program.
My question is: are the national Democrats helping in the Tennessee special election in December? We grassroots Dems also need how to donate to this and other elections.
CA-GOV: Billionaire Tom Steyer is jumping into the primary.
https://x.com/nytimes/status/1991154660778934600?s=20
Congrats to all the consultants who will soon have money for a boat.
This dude has just zero juice with the party base . . .the vanity runs need to stop.
party officer here, can confirm. Except for the former local Dem club chair who's super excited about him, called me today, because he's cute. Sigh.
Blech
I've loved Steyer's work in the past launching campaigns and pouring money into candidates and causes I support but I don't know about this. Part of me thinks he could be the CA version of JB Pritzker, which is a good thing, but at the same time, the state really needs someone who understands it. At this point, I was leaning towards Porter but I'm now leaning more towards Becerra.
By the way, I loved his ads supporting Prop 50. One thing I have to get him, he can push a hell of a message. I'll always respect him for being an early leader in the call to impeach Trump during his first term.
He should keep pouring money into their campaigns without running his own lol
We could use Steyer’s help in unseating as many House Republicans as possible in CA.
Biggest annoyance with this is it could increase the chances two republicans slip into the top 2.
How much risk is there of an injunction being placed on the CA maps? I know there was a suit asking for one
Don't think it's that great. Republicans are arguing it was done to impermissibly bolster Hispanic representation rather than for partisan reasons. But there's no paper trail supporting that unlike in the Texas case.
Plus the map was explicitly blessed by a statewide election, it will be difficult to justify striking it down.
OR-5:
https://www.centraloregondaily.com/news/elections/patti-adair-running-for-congress-oregon-5th-district/article_3f6b8eb1-e26e-4d11-b99c-c3522c7014d6.html
Republicans have a candidate running against Dem Rep. Janelle Bynum — that candidate being Deschutes County Commissioner Patti Adair.
Given the national environment, I highly doubt she has a chance.
I imagine every district that voted for Harris apart from maybe PA 1 will go blue next year. This is one of them
Because the gerrymandered map would have required Lloyd Doggett to run against fellow incumbent Greg Casar, Doggett announced that he would retire. However, the annulment of the gerrymander might enable a distinguished progressive to continue his career.
If he and Casar both make it back I hope this hasn't damaged their relationship
Either way it’s time to pass the torch. We’re in this huge delay with Epstein because older Dems just couldn’t call it quits.
Doggett is a good legislator, who I think wants to chair Ways and Means (and I think he'd be better than Neal). I just don't see Neal giving it up first or it going to Doggett if he does (Sánchez, Sewell, DelBene are much more likely). If the current maps hold, Doggett should still retire and just endorse a preferred successor.
god forbid he endorse a successor, as we see national dems trying to make an issue out of one house seat's primary in deep blue cook county illinois.
National democrats are currently proving LBJ's maxim that the only difference between a liberal and a cannibal is that a cannibal doesn't eat their own. Mind you the Epstein files are in the news, the economy is teetering, inflation is up, and democrats in the house want to shame Chuy Garcia for doing what every pol in chicago has always done. Kinda funny chuy doesn't get to play by the same rules the cook county machine got to play by, but i'm sure that's not because of his opposition to rahm back in the day.
There’s endorsement, and then there’s gaming the filing process so only your preferred candidate makes the cut. They are not the same.
I can almost guarantee that the corrupt criminal SC will overturn this ruling-go against McDonald trump , no way /hope I’m wrong -
"DD" is one of the known aliases that Trump has used in the past, I hope the court did some due diligence on that submission https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pseudonyms_used_by_Donald_Trump
I think that's a little too conspiratorial, also no way in hell Donald knows how to use redistricting software.
Anna Eskamani, high profile progressive in the state house who's running for Mayor of Orlando in 2027, shared a draft map apparently going around repub advocacy circles (she speculates it originates directly from DeSantis staffers) to lobby legislative leaders to take up redistricting. Would attempt to axe out the districts of Max Frost (FL-10), Kathy Castor (FL-14), Lois Frankel (FL-22), Jared Moskowitz (FL-25) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-25). Remaining Dem seats would only be Darren Soto (FL-09), Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (FL-20) and Frederica Wilson (FL-24). It's really insane to me that until 2020, the delegation was 14R-13D and could be down to 25R-3D...
https://www.instagram.com/p/DRK7NojEqjK/
Lol, that map assumes that Republicans will continue to win Florida by double digit margins indefinitely. How quickly they forget the special elections earlier this year, when Republicans underperformed Trump by 16% in the 6th and 22% in the 1st. If that continues, this map could be a massive dummymander.
I haven't seen anything from Florida in the last 10 years to suggest Republicans shouldn't be confident about winning by double-digit margins indefinitely. It will continue to be a sponge for greedy, conservative retirees. Even if the Hispanic population reverts to 2016 numbers, this map probably wouldn't be a dummymander because a few seats under existing lines would already be poised to bounce back to Dems. Not seeing much downside potential for Florida Republicans to adopt this map.
There's usually a handful of states that go counter to the trend of an even year general election. Florida is a very plausible pick as a highlight of that group for 2026. It already was in 2018.
I have no hope for that state.
I’m honestly impressed, that’s the boldest and most undemocratic gerrymander I’ve ever seen, and the districts don’t even look transparently ugly.
I think that was posted a couple of days ago. The Florida Supreme Court would have to totally ignore the 2010 redistricting amendment’s language regarding partisan lines to uphold that. Which is possible
They've already ignored the FDA in re: retrogression, so shrug.
I really think they dgaf. They didn't care about the FL-05 case that blatantly is against the Fair Districts Amendment and FL-13 isn't supposed to cross Tampa Bay. It's controlled by DeSantis hack appointees, Canady the hyperpartisan (former Clinton impeachment manager with so many other ethical issues) and Labarga as the one normal Republican (who has to retire in 2027).
I thought that map was just a laser eyes Twitter map.
Who do you think are DeSantis staffers or people brought in the 2nd Trump Admin?
Yes — it didn’t seem like it had any incumbent input
The Ohio Republican majority have fast-tracked a BS "election integrity" bill, which not only imposes citizenship requirements for voter registration but eliminates the 4-day grace period for absentee ballots postmarked before Election Day (save military and overseas voters), requiring that all ballots need to be delivered to the county boards of elections offices by 7:30 p.m. on Election Night in order to be counted.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohio-republicans-fast-track-major-changes-to-absentee-voting-registration/ar-AA1QKTDo?ocid=BingNewsVerp
They expect lame duck Governor DeWine to sign it. But if SCOTUS rules in favor of Mississippi, does that mean any grace period for ballots get reinstated for states that removed it, ie all Republican controlled?
Even if SCOTUS says grace periods are okay in that case, it wouldn't require states that removed them to have them again.
Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) will reportedly announce a run for governor of California tomorrow night on Jimmy Kimmel Live, a day after businessman Tom Steyer's announcement.
We're really getting the clown car full. If there isn't consolidation we risk a lockout.
This is why I wish Harris or Padilla would have ran when they had a chance. Porter is now considered too controversial while Becerra + co. aren't picking up enough support to get over her or the Republicans. I imagine the easiest Democrat to sacrifice himself is Tony Thurmond, but I don't think he'll even drop out.
Is Porter actually too controversial, though?
Given Becerra's connections in Sacramento recently being indicted, I'm once again leaning toward Porter.
But I will most likely not be supporting Swalwell, Steyer, or any other Dems. It's probably going to be one of those two for me.
Though I don't personally believe her attitude towards reporters and her staff would necessarily derail a potential gubernatorial administration, the shifts in support are clear - she got quite a bit of backlash. However, I do believe Swalwell is even more controversial than her, given his connection with a Chinese spy and his ill-fated presidential run.
The story with Swalwell’s connection with the Chinese spy was already closed and he had not been accused of any wrongdoing. He was fully cooperative of the FBI investigation.
If Swalwell is more controversial, I don’t see it. John Kerry’s history with Skull & Bones is more controversial than with Swalwell.
https://www.axios.com/2020/12/08/china-spy-california-politicians
I don't suspect Swalwell of any specific wrongdoing, but I am of the firm belief that when there is smoke, there is fire. The vast majority of elected officials in this country have skeletons in their closet, and Swalwell is no exception.
I'm not sure the shifts in support matter all that much. The percentages are too small. I think she went from polling at around 15-18% to more like 12-15%?
Of course this comes with a clear downside for her as well: by the same token that the shift in support matters little, her current lead matters little. Small 3-5% shifts are not substantial in most elections and can easily be the result of statistical noise or the differences between pollsters. Likewise, being in first place with 15% of the vote is far from a commanding position: falling out of the top two or dwindling to irrelevance is, while not guaranteed, not improbable at that polling level.
Not really. It would likely be a 2-3 person race between Katie Porter, Eric Swalwell and Xavier Becerra. All the other candidates are making little noise at this point.
Tom Steyer might contribute something but knowing how his presidential run fared, I don’t see how he’s going to make an impact at all.
https://x.com/MediumBuying/status/1990794323919843603
TN-7: After seeing the types of ads GOP PACs are running against Behn, I am very bearish on her chances. They include clips of her saying things that will surely turn off voters in that district. It's quite unfortunate considering she barely beat out other candidates in the primary who would've fit this district better.
It's unlikely a democrat could win the district in a first place, even in a blue wave year. The notion that a moderate democrat is automatically better than Behn is also flawed - progressives can and do win over unfavorable territory. It's about convincing voters to support left leaning policies, not shifting to the right to appease them. I highly doubt behn will win but it's not because she isn't a good fit for the district because she's too far left.
It’s about presenting yourself as someone open to ideas from all sides. There’s no progressive in Congress representing a seat as conservative as this one who was able to “convince voters to support left-leaning policies.”
I can't think of any progressive or DSA type who has pulled off a win in a solidly conservative district in the past 8 years. I just know Conor Lamb was able to win in PA-18 when it was R+11 which is about what TN-7 is today, and he presented himself as a moderate.
Lamb certainly doesn't sound like much of a moderate these days. He's trying to attack Fetterman for a potential 2028 challenge from the left. And his successor, Deluzio, is on the left too, but not as quite as progressive as some of his colleagues
That's now, not them. When is the last time a progressive Democrat convinced right-wing voters to support them? I guess the last time Sherrod Brown won? And other than him?
And Brown has never supported Medicare for all, so putting him in that progressive box is not straightforward.
There’s no dem in congress who represents a district this red period. Progressive or conservative.
I'm not suggesting there is currently - I'm saying that it can happen with the right campaign, and that being a progressive does not automatically discount a campaign in a district like this.