Here's an interesting question I'd like to ask posters here -- what is/are the worst, most incompetently run campaign(s) you've ever seen? Could be any party, ideology, race, etc.
On the flip side, which one(s) were the best, most brilliantly run?
One of the most brilliant campaign messages ever came from Margaret Thatcher. As the UK’s Labour government was struggling with high unemployment figures, Saatchi & Saatchi designed billboards with a simple and devastating message:
Martha Coakley in the special election against Scott Brown. She had no convincing narrative other than "it's my turn" and "it's the Kennedy seat", which Brown effectively countered with "it's the People's seat". What's worse, her "attack" ads merely reinforced the Republicans narrative. Brown would come on and say that he would deny the 60th vote to pass Obamacare, which was rather unpopular at that moment. Then Coakley would come on and say the exact same thing, but in nmuted colors and ominous music.
Why the Democrats nominated her for Governor after that, I have no idea. But she certainly earned the "Martha Chokeley" moniker people used after her second loss.
Speaking of Obamacare, I would love to see a postmortem on the analysis that said the mandate to purchase insurance was essential to make it work. That was by far the least popular piece of the program and when the Republicans eventually repealed it nothing happened. People still bought insurance if it was at an affordable price and didn't if they couldn't afford it. The notion that a significant number of people would wait until they were ill to purchase insurance turned out to be totally and completely wrong.
The "personal mandate" was a sweetener to get the health insurance industrial complex to drop its tooth-and-nail opposition. (That's also likely the reason that the pro-corporate chief justice ultimately voted to uphold it.)
It was pretty much economics 101 that you needed a mandate to prevent the "insurance death spiral" of an overload of sick patients and not enough healthy ones. Would also want to see robust analysis assessing what actually happened.
At the same time, while the marketplace didn't collapse the premiums would still probably be lower with a mandate in place.
It *is* economics 101, but it really just goes to show why economics is called a "dismal science". Econ 101 assumes rational actors. Humans aren't rational, especially when it comes to low probability scenarios. (The subfield of behavioral economics tries to correct for this, but it is a relatively novel area of study.)
I think the attempt to make the bill palatable to insurance companies that Brad mentions is the more likely explanation, given that they successfully derailed Clinton's health proposals. Of course they still opposed Obama too, though perhaps less vociferously.
Not to mention the Fenway Park comments and her calling not yet disgraced 2004 American League Championship Series and 2004 World Series hero Curt Schilling "another Yankees fan."
As a third generation Red Sox fan (and Boston sports fan in general) whose grandfather saw them lose in the World Series four times in his life, all in seven games, it's hard to forget.
Disagree with that given Bush the Younger still lost New Hampshire. Coakley probably wishes that the Rhode Island business scandal had occurred in 2008/09 though!
For best, I'd say John Bel Edwards. Brilliant, well executed, disciplined campaign. Though Trump 2024 was a close second. His messaging was very good, "Biden broke it, Trump will fix it" worked very well, even if it elided the fact that he didn't actually have plans to fix those things. And his ability to be sufficiently vague on key details to win over both sides of divisive issues was quite impressive.
It just pisses me off that very few (if any) so-called "journalists" actually bothered to point out that Trump had no plans to fix anything. I know it wouldn't have changed the outcome, though.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada, this year, blowing a 20+ point lead in a two month period. It was the political equivalent of the Atlanta Falcons being up 28-3 on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.
PeePee built himself up as a Trump-like figure spouting the same anti-woke, anti-society, me first crap and only opposed Trump because of the tariffs and 51sr state rhetoric. Losing and getting his ass handed to him by the voters of Carleton was entirely earned by his campaign manager and his team.
Slotkin's Senate win in Michigan was excellent, as was Whitmer's first Governor win. In terms of grass roots and long term campaigning, the Michigan Dems eventually breaking the GOP hold through independent redistricting and winning Supreme Court races was also excellent.
Joe Cunningham's governor race against Henry McMaster was a disaster. He wasn't going to win anyway, but his effort was crap.
Are we allowed to talk about the past presidential election if we’re talking about the general? Because Biden’s campaign for reelection really is up there, having to drop out of the race a few months before the election in the face of a revolt across the party with polling showing he’d be in danger of losing safe states is hard to top as the worst campaign I’ve ever seen. Between the lack of campaigning, the worst debate in the history of presidential politics, and the inability at any point in the campaign to come up with a satisfactory message on the two biggest issues on voters’ minds (the economy and immigration), the campaign was a disaster from top to bottom that only ever was seen as having a chance because of Trump’s perceived weakness.
I would be more willing to agree with that if it weren't for the fact that whoever was in the White House was going to pay the price in November. If anything 2000 would better qualify as worst. Especially since Al Gore learned the complete wrong lesson from the Lewinsky Affair and threw Bill Clinton under the bus. Downright wrong and stupid.
That’s fair, Gore somehow losing while the US was at peace with a booming economy because he had no charisma and ran away from the popular incumbent president is arguably even more impressively bad.
I'm not sure about that. You have to consider the context, not just the results. Do you agree or disagree that if Clinton could have run for a third term, he would have wiped the floor with G.W. Bush?
I'm not sold on the idea that Clinton would have gotten a third term if he ran again. Ditto for Obama 16 years later. The polls suggested that to be the case in both cases, but they were merely hypotheticals in both cases where the "elder statesman" who gets to stay above the fray while the actual nominees are slinging mud at each other. If Clinton and Obama had actually had to run campaigns for respective third terms, I don't think either would have been sure things as the country's fatigue with the two-term incumbents would have been more thoroughly exposed. Ultimately, I think Clinton would have fared pretty close to the same that Gore did. Of course, given how close that election ended up being, it's entirely possible that could have resulted in a narrow win rather than Gore's narrow defeat.
My opinion—FWIW—is that the pandemic and its aftermath effectively doomed the incumbent/incumbent's party in both 2020 and 2024.
"We made it less bad than it otherwise would have been" has never been an effective campaign message (and Trump 2020 didn't even really attempt to do that!).
Agree for the most part, but I think Dems would have been 50-50 or better to beat Trump if Biden had announced in early 2023 that he would not seek a second term. Any other Republican, even DeSantis, probably would have been favored.
The worst that immediately comes to mind is the 1994 campaign for CA Gov of Kathleen Brown (D) who was the state Treasurer at the time, so she won statewide office before. Also she was the daughter and sister of previous CA Governors.
I try not to think about that election much, but the short version was that the campaign ran out of money before the last weekend and had to pull all their TV ads. In the '90s television ads were more important than now. Earlier they spent a lot of money sending out a long policy booklet to millions of Californians, few of whom bothered to read it. That year was so bad that we temporarily lost the Assembly majority 41-39 to the CAGOP . The Repubs had a harder time of electing a Speaker. (Say hey, Willie Brown!)
Best campaign? Someone who won their race unexpectedly. How about Paul Wellstone 1990 MN-Sen...
I was thinking Wellstone in 1990 as well. And it didn't hurt that Rudy Boschwitz's opposition campaign would be on my short list for the worst-run campaigns either.
I was in preschool in 1990 and am thus no expert on this race, but Boschwitz calling Wellstone a “bad Jew” seems like it might not have been a great move.
If anyone is not saying the worst all time campaign of recent memory is anything except Liz Truss, the former Prime Minister of the UK, you don’t understand how big of a colossal failure she was (yes, technically not a campaign, but her tenure kind of counts when you have a majority that you can pass anything with).
She had the worst ever rating for any Prime Minister in history. Registering as low as 9% approval. She blew up their local currency the pound to the lowest ever compared against the USD. She managed to achieve this with a premiership that lasted September 19th to October 20th.
Let’s put it this way, in a more North American picture. Imagine Trump stepped down and was replaced with JD Vance as president by voting of Republican Party membership. Imagine Vance with a trifecta (without needing votes from the minority party in the Senate, basically a “free to do anything” political blank check).
Then after that 1 month in office he turns his presidency into 15-20% approval and making the dollar go to USD .35 as compared to CAD with his first budget.
Even then, he wouldn’t be as bad as Liz Truss was.
No argument here on that, but he’s had a much longer time to screw things up than Truss, so even if he and his party get tossed in the next election, it still wouldn’t be as bad as or break Truss’ record.
For MD-Gov, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002 and Anthony Brown in 2014 rank up (down?) there, though Brown later rebounded with wins for Congress and presently Attorney General.
Ben Jealous in 2018 may have been even worse, but that race against a popular incumbent wasn’t as winnable for any Democrat. (The other two were for open seats, albeit in not-great years.)
Yeah, I have to admit I didn’t see Brown’s 2014 loss coming. Did he just get caught napping? Turnout was awful, but that was true of Democrats nationwide.
But hey, we can take comfort in the fact that the GOP is now too extreme and undisciplined to nominate another Larry Hogan!
We have to admit that Reagan's 1980 and 1984 campaigns, though aided by treason, were brilliant. On the Democratic side, Obama in 2008, but also Rush Holt's "Twinkle, Twinkle, Kenneth Starr" ad in 1998 and AOC's upset win to get into Congress.
In Virginia, I'd say Creigh Deeds's 2009 gubernatorial campaign, with Mary Sue Terry's 1993 gubernatorial campaign being the runner-up. Depending on how this fall's elections turn out, Winsome Sears's campaign may end up taking the #1 or #2 spot from Deeds or Terry.
I'm heartened to see more Democratic military and/or clergy members run for elected office. Provided they're the "love your neighbor" type and not, say, a Republican scumbag like Mark Harris.
Hi! I'm new here but really love your work. Quick correction, if that's okay. Julie Bickelhaupt is a farmer but is also Chairwoman of the Carroll County (pop: ~15k) Commission.
Frank J. Guarini, Jr., who served as a congressman from a Hudson County district for fourteen years, celebrates his 101st birthday today.
The Jersey City Democrat is the oldest living former congressman from New Jersey, the oldest living former statewide candidate, the oldest living former state senator, and the oldest living member of the U.S. House of Representatives.
One of three living congressional centenarians. Another, Virginia Republican G. William Whitehurst, was one of my grad school professors at Old Dominion University in the late 1990s. There’s a residence hall on campus named for him that I lived in for a year.
I can't speak for other unaffiliated and independent voters in CA, but I myself as an unaffiliated voter in CA will definitely be voting for this amendment.
Beyond the fact that the poll shows the reapportionment proposition leading by no less than 22%, there is the additional datum that it shows only 8% undecided.
Some have thought that Newsom's ballot initiative might be unpopular. Nope.
It's probably going to pass. Voters understand the issue.
Florida State Representative and Orlando mayoral candidate Anna Eskamani won an award by the progressive-leaning publication Orlando Weekly for "best local big shot who's not an elected official" despite being a sitting (albeit term-limited to her current office) elected official:
She’s great but right now I see no path forward for her statewide. Hopefully she’s elected Orange County mayor and can bide her time while the FDP pulls itself together.
What do we think about this? It strikes me as a confirmation of some of our priors about young people swinging away from us but it seems less important than the GCB and Trump's approval. Most young people I know hate Trump but don't like Dems either but will only vote for Dems, but I'd bet the vast majority registered as indys.
The highest number of registered voters here in North Carolina are unaffiliated voters, which is a sizeable 38%. Democrats make up 32%, Republicans comprise 30% and third-party voters made up 0.94%
51% of voters aged 18-25 are unaffiliated, compared to 44% of age 26-40 and so forth.
I'm going to keep saying this--people will likely vote for a Democrat in their race and still say they don't like "the Democratic Party." It's a version of "people hate Congress, but love their Congressperson," which explains 90% re-election rates. I usually amend this by saying "people hate other people's Congressperson." The term limits crazies are always the ones who will re-elect Billy Bob Racist for 30 years.
There's I think a general sentiment young people have where Democrats are not paying enough attention to their struggles and are going for the most common issues that may not always be so black and white for them.
The NYC Mayoral Race is an example of where the Democratic Party should be laser focused on where the sentiment is targeted at, not strictly on Zohran Mamdani and whether he's going to help Democrats or not in his agenda. Mamdani is bringing up cost of living and housing issues A LOT on the campaign trail but the more Democrats get distracted with how "radical" he may be, the more they are insulating themselves from those who want to be driven to become Democrats.
I am not bringing up Mamdani because I am necessarily trying to be for or against him but rather talking about that Democrats should not be complacent when it comes to voter sentiment.
I'm willing to bet a lot of this was during the 2022-2024 period with high inflation being blamed on the incumbent party and Biden being perceived as old and ineffective. I wonder how much this trend may reverse or get offset, perhaps even entirely, as we speak. I highly doubt now with Trump and the GOP's ever growing unpopularity, inflation and unemployment rising, and global crisis worsening or emerging, that this trend is still continuing. I suppose we will see post 2026.
VICTORY! The disgraceful Proud Boys recruitment ad that was on a billboard near Breese, IL in Clinton County on Old US 50 came down fully, after the message of hate was flipped to the opposite side.
Granted MD Dems will need to make some...adjustments to make this possible, but it's good to be ready if and when things escalate. I also did this for fun.
UPDATE: Edited map to establish road contiguity in MD-01 in Harford County. I also made the 1st and 2nd a bit bluer.
Good work the both of you. My map was drawn to minimize disruption to current Dem incumbents and keep the Eastern Shore whole which is why I didn't go full butcher on Andy Harris' district.
So Graham Platners Maine Senate launch video got 3.2m views about 24 hours later on Twitter alone.
In fact it’s been so successful, one of the media rightwing rags the Daily Caller has put out a new article today attacking him as a far left DSA Maine Mamdani. The article itself is weak “he applied for a small business grant from a globalist billionaire, he attended a no kings rally, he supports Bernie Sanders, he donated to Jared Golden”. Free to read: https://archive.ph/U8gF7
Republicans are scared by him because he’s not the typical Democrat they face in elections and they’re so worried about him winning, they have to tell their own voters “don’t believe what he says, this guy isn’t for you” just 24 hours after launching his first ever political campaign. They actually fear he can win over their own supporters.
For a Democratic party’s voters that desperately wants to win power back and end Republican careers from top ticket to bottom + win back the Senate, that is the clearest signal ever that he can win. I really don’t know what would count as fearing a candidate if this hit piece that fails to actually land any blows, doesn’t.
Long way to go, not guaranteeing anything, but I’m in and I think Maine Democrats will be too. I look forward to watching this primary to see what our voters decide in the end.
Fundraising in the primary might be an issue because he starts with no money and no connections but no Democrat will have any problem raising money for the general, especially in a cheap state like Maine.
Supporting Bernie Sanders if anything, is a badge of honor and pride for many progressives, not an insult. Yes please keep insulting Mr. Platners. TBH tho I did have some hope for Jordan Wood, but Platners seems to have a superior background. Wood currently has an impressive war chest of $1.6 million, but let's see how Platners campaign plays out and see if they can match or surpass Wood's campaign.
They are attacking him for donating <100 dollars to Bernie in 2016. Last year, they attacked Osborn too for being a "Bernie bro". Now RW media is doing it to Platter and Talarico who is a self confessed Bernie supporter.
I am not too concerned with these attacks now since a majority of America seems to have accepted him in the mainstream unlike 10 years ago, with a +5 to +10 net approval in recent polls, only trailing Obama. Even Rebecca Cooke challenging Van Orden in slightly red district invited him to stump for her and sought his endorsement this time.
Sixth party system (no single party dominance, Democrats increasingly become the party of the youth, urban liberals and minorities while Republicans become the party of the "Solid South" and the white working class) as compared to the Fifth party system(New Deal coalition).
The 53% for Democrats in that poll is barely above what Harris got among Hispanic/Latino voters last year (51% per CNN exit polling data). It's possible that the undecided voters are a mix of GOP-leaning voters and, to a much lesser extent, only-Trump voters (i.e., voters who voted for Trump in the presidential race and nothing downballot).
Susan Collins to Get Hollywood Treatment at Fund-Raiser Featuring Democrats
Ms. Lansing is set to co-host the event with Casey Wasserman, the sports and entertainment mogul and chairman of the Los Angeles Olympics organizing committee, which is handling logistics for the Summer Games in 2028. Mr. Wasserman is a longtime Democratic giver as well, but he has taken steps to ingratiate himself with the right as of late, giving Olympic medals to President Trump at the White House this month and donating to some Republicans during this election cycle.That Ms. Collins is the toast of some liberal donors is something of an odd-bedfellows moment. But the senator has prided herself as independent, with fans among moderate Democratic voters and donors.
The fund-raiser will be held at the home of Sherry Lansing, a former Paramount Pictures chairwoman and prominent liberal donor, according to three people with knowledge of the fund-raiser. Ms. Lansing’s home in the Bel Air neighborhood is a mainstay on the philanthropy and Democratic fund-raising circuit, hosting the likes of Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis of California on her patio, which opens to sweeping views of Los Angeles.
I guess this is there way to ingratiate themselves with the republican senate, i'm really sure Susan Collins with save their arses when republicans target them.
Here's an interesting question I'd like to ask posters here -- what is/are the worst, most incompetently run campaign(s) you've ever seen? Could be any party, ideology, race, etc.
On the flip side, which one(s) were the best, most brilliantly run?
The Dukakis 1988 general election campaign was the worst.
One of the most brilliant campaign messages ever came from Margaret Thatcher. As the UK’s Labour government was struggling with high unemployment figures, Saatchi & Saatchi designed billboards with a simple and devastating message:
"LABOUR ISN’T WORKING."
https://c8.alamy.com/comp/E11JWP/aug-08-1978-conservative-poster-upsets-labour-the-conservative-poster-E11JWP.jpg
(You really gotta see the visual.)
Martha Coakley in the special election against Scott Brown. She had no convincing narrative other than "it's my turn" and "it's the Kennedy seat", which Brown effectively countered with "it's the People's seat". What's worse, her "attack" ads merely reinforced the Republicans narrative. Brown would come on and say that he would deny the 60th vote to pass Obamacare, which was rather unpopular at that moment. Then Coakley would come on and say the exact same thing, but in nmuted colors and ominous music.
Why the Democrats nominated her for Governor after that, I have no idea. But she certainly earned the "Martha Chokeley" moniker people used after her second loss.
Speaking of Obamacare, I would love to see a postmortem on the analysis that said the mandate to purchase insurance was essential to make it work. That was by far the least popular piece of the program and when the Republicans eventually repealed it nothing happened. People still bought insurance if it was at an affordable price and didn't if they couldn't afford it. The notion that a significant number of people would wait until they were ill to purchase insurance turned out to be totally and completely wrong.
The "personal mandate" was a sweetener to get the health insurance industrial complex to drop its tooth-and-nail opposition. (That's also likely the reason that the pro-corporate chief justice ultimately voted to uphold it.)
It was pretty much economics 101 that you needed a mandate to prevent the "insurance death spiral" of an overload of sick patients and not enough healthy ones. Would also want to see robust analysis assessing what actually happened.
At the same time, while the marketplace didn't collapse the premiums would still probably be lower with a mandate in place.
It *is* economics 101, but it really just goes to show why economics is called a "dismal science". Econ 101 assumes rational actors. Humans aren't rational, especially when it comes to low probability scenarios. (The subfield of behavioral economics tries to correct for this, but it is a relatively novel area of study.)
I think the attempt to make the bill palatable to insurance companies that Brad mentions is the more likely explanation, given that they successfully derailed Clinton's health proposals. Of course they still opposed Obama too, though perhaps less vociferously.
I remember their opposition being very vociferous, expensive and damaging. They blocked the public option.
Not to mention the Fenway Park comments and her calling not yet disgraced 2004 American League Championship Series and 2004 World Series hero Curt Schilling "another Yankees fan."
I had forgotten about that. Completely unforced error there.
As a third generation Red Sox fan (and Boston sports fan in general) whose grandfather saw them lose in the World Series four times in his life, all in seven games, it's hard to forget.
He of the literally red sock, pitching through an ankle injury. Endorsing Bush in 2004 probably gave him a small boost too.
Disagree with that given Bush the Younger still lost New Hampshire. Coakley probably wishes that the Rhode Island business scandal had occurred in 2008/09 though!
For best, I'd say John Bel Edwards. Brilliant, well executed, disciplined campaign. Though Trump 2024 was a close second. His messaging was very good, "Biden broke it, Trump will fix it" worked very well, even if it elided the fact that he didn't actually have plans to fix those things. And his ability to be sufficiently vague on key details to win over both sides of divisive issues was quite impressive.
It just pisses me off that very few (if any) so-called "journalists" actually bothered to point out that Trump had no plans to fix anything. I know it wouldn't have changed the outcome, though.
People like "aw shucks" politicians, whether we like it or not.
Trump is not one.
I would say Trump's messaging was effective (apparently), but not that his campaign was disciplined.
Agreed. (Nor is his presidency) "Disciplined" in my comment referred to Bel Edwards.
Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada, this year, blowing a 20+ point lead in a two month period. It was the political equivalent of the Atlanta Falcons being up 28-3 on the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.
In all fairness, Trump had a lot to do with the result of the Canadian election result.
PeePee built himself up as a Trump-like figure spouting the same anti-woke, anti-society, me first crap and only opposed Trump because of the tariffs and 51sr state rhetoric. Losing and getting his ass handed to him by the voters of Carleton was entirely earned by his campaign manager and his team.
While I agree that he deserved his fate, I am saying that he was put in a no win situation after Trump started attacking Canada.
The "anti-woke" stuff sure got toxic fast once Trump took power, too.
Maybe if he had separated himself ideologically but Canadians had no problem being convinced he was like trump.
Slotkin's Senate win in Michigan was excellent, as was Whitmer's first Governor win. In terms of grass roots and long term campaigning, the Michigan Dems eventually breaking the GOP hold through independent redistricting and winning Supreme Court races was also excellent.
Joe Cunningham's governor race against Henry McMaster was a disaster. He wasn't going to win anyway, but his effort was crap.
Are we allowed to talk about the past presidential election if we’re talking about the general? Because Biden’s campaign for reelection really is up there, having to drop out of the race a few months before the election in the face of a revolt across the party with polling showing he’d be in danger of losing safe states is hard to top as the worst campaign I’ve ever seen. Between the lack of campaigning, the worst debate in the history of presidential politics, and the inability at any point in the campaign to come up with a satisfactory message on the two biggest issues on voters’ minds (the economy and immigration), the campaign was a disaster from top to bottom that only ever was seen as having a chance because of Trump’s perceived weakness.
I would be more willing to agree with that if it weren't for the fact that whoever was in the White House was going to pay the price in November. If anything 2000 would better qualify as worst. Especially since Al Gore learned the complete wrong lesson from the Lewinsky Affair and threw Bill Clinton under the bus. Downright wrong and stupid.
That’s fair, Gore somehow losing while the US was at peace with a booming economy because he had no charisma and ran away from the popular incumbent president is arguably even more impressively bad.
Gore 2000 was a mess but putting his campaign in the same universe as Biden's 2024 reelection effort is like comparing a house fire to Chernobyl.
I'm not sure about that. You have to consider the context, not just the results. Do you agree or disagree that if Clinton could have run for a third term, he would have wiped the floor with G.W. Bush?
I think Clinton would have beaten Bush narrowly. Bush was a more appealing candidate than Dole, and people were a little weary of Clinton by 2000.
I'm not sold on the idea that Clinton would have gotten a third term if he ran again. Ditto for Obama 16 years later. The polls suggested that to be the case in both cases, but they were merely hypotheticals in both cases where the "elder statesman" who gets to stay above the fray while the actual nominees are slinging mud at each other. If Clinton and Obama had actually had to run campaigns for respective third terms, I don't think either would have been sure things as the country's fatigue with the two-term incumbents would have been more thoroughly exposed. Ultimately, I think Clinton would have fared pretty close to the same that Gore did. Of course, given how close that election ended up being, it's entirely possible that could have resulted in a narrow win rather than Gore's narrow defeat.
My opinion—FWIW—is that the pandemic and its aftermath effectively doomed the incumbent/incumbent's party in both 2020 and 2024.
"We made it less bad than it otherwise would have been" has never been an effective campaign message (and Trump 2020 didn't even really attempt to do that!).
Agree for the most part, but I think Dems would have been 50-50 or better to beat Trump if Biden had announced in early 2023 that he would not seek a second term. Any other Republican, even DeSantis, probably would have been favored.
The worst that immediately comes to mind is the 1994 campaign for CA Gov of Kathleen Brown (D) who was the state Treasurer at the time, so she won statewide office before. Also she was the daughter and sister of previous CA Governors.
I try not to think about that election much, but the short version was that the campaign ran out of money before the last weekend and had to pull all their TV ads. In the '90s television ads were more important than now. Earlier they spent a lot of money sending out a long policy booklet to millions of Californians, few of whom bothered to read it. That year was so bad that we temporarily lost the Assembly majority 41-39 to the CAGOP . The Repubs had a harder time of electing a Speaker. (Say hey, Willie Brown!)
Best campaign? Someone who won their race unexpectedly. How about Paul Wellstone 1990 MN-Sen...
I was thinking Wellstone in 1990 as well. And it didn't hurt that Rudy Boschwitz's opposition campaign would be on my short list for the worst-run campaigns either.
I was in preschool in 1990 and am thus no expert on this race, but Boschwitz calling Wellstone a “bad Jew” seems like it might not have been a great move.
If anyone is not saying the worst all time campaign of recent memory is anything except Liz Truss, the former Prime Minister of the UK, you don’t understand how big of a colossal failure she was (yes, technically not a campaign, but her tenure kind of counts when you have a majority that you can pass anything with).
She had the worst ever rating for any Prime Minister in history. Registering as low as 9% approval. She blew up their local currency the pound to the lowest ever compared against the USD. She managed to achieve this with a premiership that lasted September 19th to October 20th.
Let’s put it this way, in a more North American picture. Imagine Trump stepped down and was replaced with JD Vance as president by voting of Republican Party membership. Imagine Vance with a trifecta (without needing votes from the minority party in the Senate, basically a “free to do anything” political blank check).
Then after that 1 month in office he turns his presidency into 15-20% approval and making the dollar go to USD .35 as compared to CAD with his first budget.
Even then, he wouldn’t be as bad as Liz Truss was.
Starmer is working overtime to break Liz's record.
No argument here on that, but he’s had a much longer time to screw things up than Truss, so even if he and his party get tossed in the next election, it still wouldn’t be as bad as or break Truss’ record.
For MD-Gov, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in 2002 and Anthony Brown in 2014 rank up (down?) there, though Brown later rebounded with wins for Congress and presently Attorney General.
Ben Jealous in 2018 may have been even worse, but that race against a popular incumbent wasn’t as winnable for any Democrat. (The other two were for open seats, albeit in not-great years.)
Yeah, I have to admit I didn’t see Brown’s 2014 loss coming. Did he just get caught napping? Turnout was awful, but that was true of Democrats nationwide.
But hey, we can take comfort in the fact that the GOP is now too extreme and undisciplined to nominate another Larry Hogan!
We have to admit that Reagan's 1980 and 1984 campaigns, though aided by treason, were brilliant. On the Democratic side, Obama in 2008, but also Rush Holt's "Twinkle, Twinkle, Kenneth Starr" ad in 1998 and AOC's upset win to get into Congress.
Rush Holt! He would have made a great senator or governor.
Indeed. He's one of my all-time favorite members of Congress.
Ed FitzGerald for OH Governor in 2014?
Amusingly enough, he filed paperwork this year to challenge Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) in an attempted comeback.
https://www.cleveland.com/news/2025/07/ed-fitzgerald-cuyahogas-first-county-executive-and-one-time-governor-candidate-attempts-political-comeback.html?outputType=amp
In Virginia, I'd say Creigh Deeds's 2009 gubernatorial campaign, with Mary Sue Terry's 1993 gubernatorial campaign being the runner-up. Depending on how this fall's elections turn out, Winsome Sears's campaign may end up taking the #1 or #2 spot from Deeds or Terry.
Also, IIRC, Bob Beauprez's 2006 campaign for Colorado Governor was also terrible.
I'm heartened to see more Democratic military and/or clergy members run for elected office. Provided they're the "love your neighbor" type and not, say, a Republican scumbag like Mark Harris.
Hi! I'm new here but really love your work. Quick correction, if that's okay. Julie Bickelhaupt is a farmer but is also Chairwoman of the Carroll County (pop: ~15k) Commission.
Thank you for the flag! More importantly, welcome aboard—and thank you for the extremely kind words!
Sad that Rollins won't run again, he's a candidate I was excited about in both his runs
It's surprising, given the potential for a more favorable map and the name-rec advantage he would start with.
Running for Congress is hard!
It's hard when the other party has the advantage in a district but now he would have the advantage so yea a little surprising he's passing.
While running in a competitive election is certainly a higher degree of difficulty, I will maintain that running for Congress is hard, period.
He's still young (early 40s I think?). I understand wanting a break, and I doubt we've seen the last of him.
Probably won't have this opportunity again so most likely won't see him again
Frank J. Guarini, Jr., who served as a congressman from a Hudson County district for fourteen years, celebrates his 101st birthday today.
The Jersey City Democrat is the oldest living former congressman from New Jersey, the oldest living former statewide candidate, the oldest living former state senator, and the oldest living member of the U.S. House of Representatives.
https://newjerseyglobe.com/trailblazer/happy-101st-birthday-congressman-frank-guarini/
He's thinking of making a comeback next year ;).
To anyone else thinking of making a snarky comment today, this is the bar.
Tanned, tested, ready.
The next Ken Hechler
One of three living congressional centenarians. Another, Virginia Republican G. William Whitehurst, was one of my grad school professors at Old Dominion University in the late 1990s. There’s a residence hall on campus named for him that I lived in for a year.
David Binder, a prominent CA Dem pollster, has the redistricting amendment up 57-35: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/20/california-redistricting-newsom-poll/85737469007/
It only needs a simple majority to pass, right?
Yes.
Yeah. Colorado is prepping something similar but it'll take 55% and won't be able to be voted on until November 2026.
FWIW, they nailed the SF mayor race: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_San_Francisco_mayoral_election
I can't speak for other unaffiliated and independent voters in CA, but I myself as an unaffiliated voter in CA will definitely be voting for this amendment.
Beyond the fact that the poll shows the reapportionment proposition leading by no less than 22%, there is the additional datum that it shows only 8% undecided.
Some have thought that Newsom's ballot initiative might be unpopular. Nope.
It's probably going to pass. Voters understand the issue.
Florida State Representative and Orlando mayoral candidate Anna Eskamani won an award by the progressive-leaning publication Orlando Weekly for "best local big shot who's not an elected official" despite being a sitting (albeit term-limited to her current office) elected official:
https://www.instagram.com/p/DNlJ_hyRLFu/?igsh=MTlqNGg3ZTBwNXhpdw==
When you're a local legend in your hometown, you sometimes win awards you're not actually eligible for.
Also, this is the last time I'll mention the 2027 Orlando mayoral election on here until there's more than one candidate declared for that election.
She’s great but right now I see no path forward for her statewide. Hopefully she’s elected Orange County mayor and can bide her time while the FDP pulls itself together.
She's running for Orlando city mayor. Orlando and Orange County have separate mayoral offices.
I didn’t know that, thanks for the heads up. She would be great at either.
No mention of Terry Virts?
What do we think about this? It strikes me as a confirmation of some of our priors about young people swinging away from us but it seems less important than the GCB and Trump's approval. Most young people I know hate Trump but don't like Dems either but will only vote for Dems, but I'd bet the vast majority registered as indys.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/20/us/politics/democratic-party-voter-registration-crisis.html
Yes.
It's a troubling trend but by itself it doesn't prevent you from winning elections.
Yes, that's true. Independent voter registration was surging years ago and isn't letting up any steam.
Democrats can still win elections with Independents.
The highest number of registered voters here in North Carolina are unaffiliated voters, which is a sizeable 38%. Democrats make up 32%, Republicans comprise 30% and third-party voters made up 0.94%
51% of voters aged 18-25 are unaffiliated, compared to 44% of age 26-40 and so forth.
https://carolinademography.cpc.unc.edu/2024/10/10/who-are-north-carolinas-unaffiliated-voters-2024-update/
I'm willing to bet at least half of the 51% lean Democratic when they do vote.
I'm going to keep saying this--people will likely vote for a Democrat in their race and still say they don't like "the Democratic Party." It's a version of "people hate Congress, but love their Congressperson," which explains 90% re-election rates. I usually amend this by saying "people hate other people's Congressperson." The term limits crazies are always the ones who will re-elect Billy Bob Racist for 30 years.
There's I think a general sentiment young people have where Democrats are not paying enough attention to their struggles and are going for the most common issues that may not always be so black and white for them.
The NYC Mayoral Race is an example of where the Democratic Party should be laser focused on where the sentiment is targeted at, not strictly on Zohran Mamdani and whether he's going to help Democrats or not in his agenda. Mamdani is bringing up cost of living and housing issues A LOT on the campaign trail but the more Democrats get distracted with how "radical" he may be, the more they are insulating themselves from those who want to be driven to become Democrats.
I am not bringing up Mamdani because I am necessarily trying to be for or against him but rather talking about that Democrats should not be complacent when it comes to voter sentiment.
I'm willing to bet a lot of this was during the 2022-2024 period with high inflation being blamed on the incumbent party and Biden being perceived as old and ineffective. I wonder how much this trend may reverse or get offset, perhaps even entirely, as we speak. I highly doubt now with Trump and the GOP's ever growing unpopularity, inflation and unemployment rising, and global crisis worsening or emerging, that this trend is still continuing. I suppose we will see post 2026.
Sarah Godlewski makes it official: https://pbswisconsin.org/news-item/wisconsin-secretary-of-state-sarah-godlewski-enters-the-2026-race-for-lieutenant-governor/
VICTORY! The disgraceful Proud Boys recruitment ad that was on a billboard near Breese, IL in Clinton County on Old US 50 came down fully, after the message of hate was flipped to the opposite side.
https://www.ksdk.com/article/news/local/illinois-proud-boys-billboard-taken-down-extremist-recruiting-sign-breese-central-community-high-school/63-6d9d87cf-525d-456f-97a7-7bda7cefd4c9
I made this Maryland gerrymandering possibility that I call an 8-0 BTG (Break the Glass) map. All incumbents live in their districts and Kamala Harris won 50.1%-47.7% in MD-01 (update: now 50.5%-47.3%): https://davesredistricting.org/join/6c6271c4-a9cf-4792-bb3f-29c5fd81bd6b
Granted MD Dems will need to make some...adjustments to make this possible, but it's good to be ready if and when things escalate. I also did this for fun.
UPDATE: Edited map to establish road contiguity in MD-01 in Harford County. I also made the 1st and 2nd a bit bluer.
If Missouri follows through, Maryland should respond.
If water contiguity is allowed, then it's possible to make all eight districts solidly Democratic while having three Black VRA districts.
Correct.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/f26ca4f9-f429-4a47-832d-f883c7c4cc72
P.S. If only TDB allowed us to post images directly into comments the way DKE did...
This is the map I drew:
https://davesredistricting.org/join/020337f3-b312-4b36-a179-4a0eee6b43cb
Good work the both of you. My map was drawn to minimize disruption to current Dem incumbents and keep the Eastern Shore whole which is why I didn't go full butcher on Andy Harris' district.
So Graham Platners Maine Senate launch video got 3.2m views about 24 hours later on Twitter alone.
In fact it’s been so successful, one of the media rightwing rags the Daily Caller has put out a new article today attacking him as a far left DSA Maine Mamdani. The article itself is weak “he applied for a small business grant from a globalist billionaire, he attended a no kings rally, he supports Bernie Sanders, he donated to Jared Golden”. Free to read: https://archive.ph/U8gF7
Republicans are scared by him because he’s not the typical Democrat they face in elections and they’re so worried about him winning, they have to tell their own voters “don’t believe what he says, this guy isn’t for you” just 24 hours after launching his first ever political campaign. They actually fear he can win over their own supporters.
For a Democratic party’s voters that desperately wants to win power back and end Republican careers from top ticket to bottom + win back the Senate, that is the clearest signal ever that he can win. I really don’t know what would count as fearing a candidate if this hit piece that fails to actually land any blows, doesn’t.
Long way to go, not guaranteeing anything, but I’m in and I think Maine Democrats will be too. I look forward to watching this primary to see what our voters decide in the end.
Now we have to see how he will do in fundraising
Fundraising in the primary might be an issue because he starts with no money and no connections but no Democrat will have any problem raising money for the general, especially in a cheap state like Maine.
Supporting Bernie Sanders if anything, is a badge of honor and pride for many progressives, not an insult. Yes please keep insulting Mr. Platners. TBH tho I did have some hope for Jordan Wood, but Platners seems to have a superior background. Wood currently has an impressive war chest of $1.6 million, but let's see how Platners campaign plays out and see if they can match or surpass Wood's campaign.
They are attacking him for donating <100 dollars to Bernie in 2016. Last year, they attacked Osborn too for being a "Bernie bro". Now RW media is doing it to Platter and Talarico who is a self confessed Bernie supporter.
I am not too concerned with these attacks now since a majority of America seems to have accepted him in the mainstream unlike 10 years ago, with a +5 to +10 net approval in recent polls, only trailing Obama. Even Rebecca Cooke challenging Van Orden in slightly red district invited him to stump for her and sought his endorsement this time.
Which Graham?
Oh. Are we calling new politicians by their first names now?
Yea let's not confuse Platner with Lindsey Graham.
Bernie is also a senator from a nearby state. I imagine that would make him more mainstream in the area.
Bera taking on Kiley wouldn’t be a bad idea to be honest
No thanks, he never takes his races seriously and we can do a lot better than him in a new near safe district.
New - Generic Ballot poll (Latino voters)
🔵 Democrats 53%
🔴 Republicans 29%
Equis #B - RV - 8/1
Trump could have ended the Sixth party system but he is an incompetent radical after all.
Ended the what?
Sixth party system (no single party dominance, Democrats increasingly become the party of the youth, urban liberals and minorities while Republicans become the party of the "Solid South" and the white working class) as compared to the Fifth party system(New Deal coalition).
Too early to say, still correlates to 61-39 give or take a couple points. I'd settle for not getting worse.
The 53% for Democrats in that poll is barely above what Harris got among Hispanic/Latino voters last year (51% per CNN exit polling data). It's possible that the undecided voters are a mix of GOP-leaning voters and, to a much lesser extent, only-Trump voters (i.e., voters who voted for Trump in the presidential race and nothing downballot).
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/19/us/politics/hollywood-fundraiser-susan-collins-democrats.html
Susan Collins to Get Hollywood Treatment at Fund-Raiser Featuring Democrats
Ms. Lansing is set to co-host the event with Casey Wasserman, the sports and entertainment mogul and chairman of the Los Angeles Olympics organizing committee, which is handling logistics for the Summer Games in 2028. Mr. Wasserman is a longtime Democratic giver as well, but he has taken steps to ingratiate himself with the right as of late, giving Olympic medals to President Trump at the White House this month and donating to some Republicans during this election cycle.That Ms. Collins is the toast of some liberal donors is something of an odd-bedfellows moment. But the senator has prided herself as independent, with fans among moderate Democratic voters and donors.
The fund-raiser will be held at the home of Sherry Lansing, a former Paramount Pictures chairwoman and prominent liberal donor, according to three people with knowledge of the fund-raiser. Ms. Lansing’s home in the Bel Air neighborhood is a mainstay on the philanthropy and Democratic fund-raising circuit, hosting the likes of Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis of California on her patio, which opens to sweeping views of Los Angeles.
"Democrats"🤡
In other words, these are limousine liberals, moderates, etc. who are helping Susan Collins?
Rich people who see it in their personal interest to butter their bread on both sides.
Ahh yes, of course.
If you've ever spent time in the Marina District in San Francisco, oh boy, plenty of those types there!
Everywhere.
I guess this is there way to ingratiate themselves with the republican senate, i'm really sure Susan Collins with save their arses when republicans target them.