Residency in Texas for terms of voting is very fluid as you only have to have the "intention" to return to an address to keep voting there. This resulted in a huge (and ongoing) fight in the country's smallest county, Loving, where they almost always cast more votes than the census shows lives there!
Emphasis on the last phrase. If I want to split the hair, I’d go “But this part of Alabama”.
In the Tennessee valley, or suburbs of the larger cities, it is possible to get White support in mid teens, or twenties, or even high thirties in some pockets.
But for this part, I’d be surprised any Federal D gets more than single digits.
That’s generally how internal polls work for an incumbent congressperson. If they aren’t in the high 40s in their own poll as an incumbent, they likely aren’t winning unfortunately.
I really think a lot of politicos (not just Dems!) are underrating the importance of data centers are this cycle. People HATE the centers and I could really see it being a tipping-point issue in more competitive elections.
Democrats can have leverage on this issue to the extent where it would result in pushing for more regulation on technology, including the infrastructure that supports it.
The large AI data centers are only built by large corporations. The end goal of their use is to eliminate jobs. They do not contribute the community hosting them, and in fact add significant infrastructure costs.
There was a story not long ago that the majority of the members a city council were RECALLED by the voters. They had approved a data center in their town.
Its a complete missed opportunity if dems dont go after data centers, it even has Abbott in texas backtracking and talking about regulation after he wanted to flood our state with them.
I would appreciate it greatly if people--not solely dragonfire5004--would put quotation marks, you know these things " " ,around excepts they're quoting. It makes it much easier to discern what's in the poster's voice and what's the excerpt being quoted. I see this here a lot. It's possibly the only thing I don't like about the posts here. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ;>)
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I did for several months before I broke down and got the subscription. Financial duress or old-fashioned cheapness can make people do things that don't make much sense.
There are definitely frequent commenters who are free subscribers (as opposed to paid), but outright non-subscribers who comment are typically just trolls who never return. At least now, these would-be trolls will be forced to subscribe if they want to try to comment!
- Phil Scott being outfundraised is interesting. I’d assumed he was too popular in the state for that. Probably doesn’t mean much though.
- That AIPAC is spending to stop Cori Bush indicates to me that Bell might be vulnerable. I heard somewhere (I think on Bluesky) from someone who knows someone in St Louis that Bell is not popular and scandal-plagued. We’ll see where this goes.
- That Vicente Gonzalez poll is alarming. Should we be worried here?
- I’d agree it’s surprising and encouraging but his name recognition alone could probably win the race.
- I don’t know about Bell being scandal-ridden, but I do think they’re vulnerable to Bush especially with younger voters (which takes up 31% of the district) heavily leaning progressive so far this cycle.
-It seems we might need to be on edge, but hopefully an anomaly
Yep. Bell is awful, and I did not like his office or his reported sexual harassment when he was a prosecutor.
Bush, on the other hand, was a lousy congresswoman. Her constituent services were mostly non-existent unless you had some kind of special relationship with Bush (or Tish).
Bush came across as a blowhard who did little for her district (that has a lot of struggles).
I lived two blocks from Bush's congressional office. I lived on Washington, and worked on Market, so I walked past her office every day to and from work. Never once did I see the office open. They must have kept ridiculously short hours there.
I agree strongly that some other progressive could possibly demolish Bell. But few are pining for the return of Cory Bush
Please AIPAC would spend millions slandering whichever progressive dared oppose their golden boy. It would be competitive no matter what because of that. But I do agree that Bush probably isn’t the best candidate to go against Bell.
Bush is a fighter for average people. Her experience being homeless with kids gives her empathy for those struggling. We need more in Congress like her- instead of the bought and paid for Bell.
Platner isn’t the only career that should be over after this. If the DSCC hadn’t put a hand on the scale for Janet Mills and sucked out all the oxygen, we wouldn’t be in this position. Schumer must go as Senate leader for this.
Maybe the DSCC needs members who realize that each state is different and maybe it should not interfere in primaries unless to counter Republican interference. I also advocate listening to the people on the ground, especially in rural states.
Two of the most important Democrats both being from New York doesn't inspire confidence, and of the vice chairs only one is from a swing state (and it's Mark Kelly)
If there's any justice in the world, the Pod Save America crew should suffer consequences for running interference for Platner each time he had a skeleton fall out of the closet.
As a PSA listener, I don't think that's quite accurate. The only time they "ran interference" was giving him an interview after the tattoo revelation, and they always have an open door policy for any Dem candidates who want to talk. They interviewed Janet Mills as well.
They did ask him tough questions, but he then answered them in a compelling way.
Since then, I don't recall them ever boosting Platner. Instead, they simply noted that he was resonating more with Maine voters than Mills, which was true.
They in no way pressed him hard on the tattoo, LMAO. They blindly took his bullshit answer at face value with little pushback despite all the red flags about his lies then.
They pressed him on the Reddit posts, and again, after that interview, the hosts noted many times that more stuff coming out about Platner would create problems. It's not like they were constantly rah-rahing for Platner and never acknowledging the possibility of trouble.
Let me get this straight- Progressives recruited Platner, and apparently did no vetting Progressives endorsed him and raised money for him and stuck by him after his scandals started to come out and finally enough scandals have come out that he has to drop out and you want to blame the Democratic establishment for this mess? Give me a break. This mess belongs to the Progressives.
I don't completely disagree with you. The high-level progressive backers of Platner who didn't vet him/kept supporting him after the NYT article* do bear great blame. I still maintain that DSCC is to blame as well, because they pushed out Dan Kleban in favor of Janet Mills rather than just let the primary play out:
Mills would not have won. Her approval ratings were poor, she was disliked by groups including unions and I believe also the Native American population, and Platner not existing wouldn’t have saved her. Both the left and Schumer are to blame.
I fucking knew this whole scandal was going to be used to bash the left here. I was prepared for the comments. I still don’t think this is the left alone’s fault.
This current little disagreement started because a poster here used Platner to bash the party, but you knew he would be used to bash the left? It was the other way around.
No, what I was saying was that I knew the Platner scandal was going to be used to bash the left when it happened yesterday. I was dreading the response, which was pretty much exactly what I expected.
To be honest I am tired of ideological infighting in general, left or center. It’s going to cost our party if we don’t get it under control.
The reason the left is getting bashed is because they pushed a candidate without doing any vetting and they continued to back him after it became obvious that he had serious flaws and this mess could cost us an important Senate seat. If the left wants to run candidates for office in important races, they need to pick serious candidates who have been vetted and who are strong ideological fits for their seat. Instead they have been picking flawed candidates like Platner and Andrew Gillum or cranks like Chevalier, Kiros or Hong who will be a drag on the entire party. The left also has the nasty habit of sabotaging races when their candidate loses a seriously contested primary or when the Democratic candidate fails one of their endless "purity tests.". Politics is serious business with serious consequences for everyone. People get hurt when we lose important races and Republicans who campaigned on hurting immigrants, minorities, LGBT people and others get in the majority and attack those communities. Some of us are getting tired of seeing people getting hurt because the not ready for primetime left either pushes a terrible candidate on us or sits on their hands when their favored candidate loses the primary.
The left certainly aren’t alone in sabotaging races. Just a week or two ago Kara Eastman was brought up as a candidate where the previous Dem endorsed the GOP opponent. There is also the infamous Buffalo mayoral race where the incumbent mayor lost his primary and was blatantly pushed through by the party as a write in. I also do not like the insinuation that the left sabotage races regularly. If that were uniformly true, Biden would have lost in 2020.
“Strong ideological fits” - what do you mean by that? Are you telling progressives to change their ideology? Because I, for one, am not backing off my support for universal healthcare, for instance. I feel like the description of the left used in your analogy is a bit of a monolith. Brad Lander certainly wasn’t a flawed candidate. And while DAC and Kiros may not be popular here, they are in deep blue seats and are in no danger of losing. MTG and her crew didn’t stop Trump from winning again, and I really don’t think a random voter in, say, Iowa or Texas is going to base their vote on DAC.
Mind you, I agree that situations like that of Hong are not good, and there are cases where a progressive flat out cannot win. But like it or not, there are very left wing Democrats out there, and denying them a presence in Congress, even if you don’t like them, is, in my opinion, anti-democratic.
And as for the purity test comment, the number of online center-left fights I’ve seen has shown me the left is far from alone in using purity tests. Again, see Eastman and Walton. Is asking candidates to moderate large segments of their views not a purity test in and of itself? What happened to letting voters decide in the primaries?
This is not to absolve the left of all responsibility, mind you. I’m not happy about Platner not being vetted adequately either, I’m not happy about Hong, or Matt Dunlap, or all the idiots who didn’t vote for Kamala due to a topic that is banned here. I’m just saying that blaming the left alone for all these problems is simplistic, and sends the message that only voters of one ideology are allowed in what is supposed to be the big-tent opposition to Trump. As much as I didn’t and don’t like people like Manchin or Golden or MGP or whoever, I didn’t and don’t want them primaried because only they can win their seats.
You're right, but I'm not seeing blame of the left only for everything, but for things leftists deserve blame for. It wasn't the conservative Democrats who supported Platner, so their faults are not too topical in this context.
Perhaps. I got a little thrown off when DAC and Kiros got roped into it as neither are actually in swing seats (and I don’t think they will hurt us in other states) but I get the general point. Believe me, I’m not happy about how this was handled either.
I said a couple weeks ago that if the left wants to have a serious chance to get political power they need to nominate serious candidates who have been seriously vetted. They have been putting up too many candidates with serious personal flaws or who are bomb throwers. Nominate more James Talaricos and fewer Darializa Chevaliers.
I wish I could like this about a billion times. And, to clarify, I don't have a problem with candidates simply for being on the Left - it's when we get unserious candidates who can either cost us seats (i.e. Platner, Hong) or be hung around the necks of all Dems (Chevalier, Kiros) that the problems occur.
Maybe you haven't seen the numerous positive things I've said about AOC as just one example. It's not the left I cannot tolerate, it's unserious people representing us (or trying to). There are plenty of people well to my left who I respect and like, even if our politics don't align, and have said as much here. Go back and read what I wrote about Mamdani when he was elected. I do think that many of our "not ready for primetime" players are on the left. I don't think it's because they're on the left, but rather because that's where the insurgent energy is right now and that's more likely to bring those sorts of people to the fore. I also don't love this desire we seem to have for "fighters" rather than serious legislators. I don't generally talk in extreme terms, but if you can point me to an extreme comment I've made, I'm happy to apologize for it.
Problem is that I remember folks not so long ago claiming Mamdani would be hung around our necks. Some centrist folks went so far as to back someone who had to resign from office over sexual assault allegations instead.
I think Mamdani IS going to get hung around our necks in purple districts/states this fall. That said, he's clearly not "not ready for primetime" in the way Kiros and Chevalier (to say nothing on Galindo) are....
I think both Progressives and the Establishment are to blame.
If Schumer had not interfered and created a vacuum of basically no candidates all the way until October, then Platner wouldn't have been able to take off as easily.
This is more a general issue but when people say "the party didn't vet him" or "progressives need to vet better" do they mean that individual people should be hiring opposition research firms and comms folks to dig into the life of every person who runs for office? Some people just decide to run and through their personalities convince elected officials to support them. And of course people lie. This isn't the UK where the parties interview and "vet" candidates before giving them their formal support. Oppo dumps almost always come from other campaigns that pay people to find the dirt.
Honestly? I would absolutely support that for high profile elections where having a strong candidate is necessary. We don't do enough oppo research on our opponents, never mind our own potential candidates.
Right??! Also, I'm not the type to say "I told you all so"...wait, yes I am. I told you all so! As I said months ago - where there's smoke there's fire - and the drip drip drip of Platner revelations turned into a 5 alarm blaze (I realize I am mixing metaphors here). The only silver lining is that we can now choose the best possible replacement, so hopefully we are focused on figuring out who that is. Kleban would be a good choice, as could Jackson.
I'm not sure Kleban would be a bad choice, but I do take your point that replacing one untested, unvetted option with another risks recreating the same issue. I'm fine with Jackson and have said as much here - he's a good fit for Maine and would be a likely winner against Collins in this environment.
Ok, I wondered how Platner came to be a candidate. He was recruited by Dan Moraff, who was seeking a "working class" candidate. The NYT, Washington Post, National Review, WSJ all have stories on him. Apparently, he helped craft Platner as a candidate but just had a cursory background check on him, rather than paying for a more expensive vetting. Maybe we should be looking at the political operatives involved.
Absurd. Bernie's astroturfed joke sucked out the air the second he was pushed on the state. No one else had any traction. Mills was a hail Mary to stop the OBVIOUS train wreck we were all hurtling to.
That is not true at all. Mills entered with a big lead. I know Bernie-bashing is a favorite pastime for many on here, but he is not the source of all evil. Nor does he control the polling.
Platner had a 34 point lead in a poll when Mills entered. I try to avoid basing Sanders on here even though I can't stand him, but I will absolutely bash him for this. He pushed this fraud on us. He put the full weight of the national left wing movement behind him and helped make him the candidate. He and his people bear far more responsibility for this than our other incompetent leaders.
You know, not everyone on the left liked Platner. On left Bluesky I have been seeing attacks on him and his character for months. Progressives aren’t a monolith.
Oh sorry. Misinterpreted your comment. When you mentioned the national left wing movement I thought that was what you meant. That one’s on me, apologies.
I think the real trick here is that it's not an ideological wing of the party that is uniquely at fault in these cases.
If we want to blame progressives for Platner, we'd have to give moderate/establishment people blame for Swalwell. The two of them are impressively similar scenarios, in that there was reason for people in the know to back off from the candidate but they opted not to do so.
That's not even touching on the support from parts of the party for Cuomo, where his sexual assault problems were not only not a surprise, but outright known because the revelations happened before that election.
I blame individuals in all these cases. Sanders gets some blame for Platner, just as Schiff gets some blame for Swalwell, just as Suozzi gets some for Cuomo.
Speaking as a lefty, I believe I called him a shit sandwich here or in the discord. But, like Schumer, I agreed he was our best chance of winning...until he wasn't.
He deserves at least some blame for blindly throwing his weight behind this nobody without any vetting. He is not clean at all in this mess. Were it not for him, the progressive field probably wouldn’t have been frozen out for Platner.
I think it’s fair to look askance at his judgement in who he endorses and throws his weight behind early in particular. Then note upthread about Andrew Gillum being busted on drug charges comes to mind
My belief is that had Troy Jackson or any of the other Gov candidates stepped up initially to run for Senate, the DSCC would have coalesced around that person. But everyone was so shell-shocked by her 2020 performance that there was a huge void that an "outsider" filled. Don't think Mills wanted it at all (she's almost 80!!) but took one for the team to give folks a non-scandal option.
At the end of the day, there is only one person to blame: Graham Planter! He knew he had these skeletons in his background and he ran anyway. I never understand why people with things to hide runs or accepts high office. Sooner or later everything will come out. It's like Denny Hestert, he knew he was a child molester and still ran for office and for one of the highest offices in the land. You will always eventually either get exposed or blackmailed (Hestert got both).
Hastert came along in a different era—during the 1980s in a district that, at the time, would elect a comatose Republican. The list of politicians who would have been brought down by scandals like this had they not been in safe districts is a long one. Bill Young comes to mind.
The only way for him to lose the by-election is for the main left party (Greens, Liberal Democrats, Labour) to not stand a candidate and consolidate around the Conservatives. Farage got 46% of the vote alone in 2024 their polling vote has doubled from the amount they got in the 2024 election.
Farage has resigned his seat because he was on the verge of being expelled from the House of Commons for failing to declare large financial contributions, including from a convicted fraudster. He's attempting to get ahead of the story.
He also made claims saying he was the most attacked politician ever, which is a weird thing to say seem as Jo Cox and David Amess were killed in the last 10 years.
French courts went easy on far-right politician Marine Le Pen, taking her prison sentence down from 4 years to 1 year with an ankle monitor. This means she can run for the open presidency next year, but she says she won't.
ME-Sen - Shay Stewart-Bouley, who writes the Black Girl in Maine Substack newsletter, is hearing that Platner will drop out, although there's no confirmation from the Platner campaign:
Where are they now? - Former Tallahassee, FL mayor Andrew Gillum, who narrowly lost a race for governor as the Democratic nominee in 2018, was arrested on drug charges in Alabama, one of which is a felony and could land him in prison.
Not just weed - the article says "dangerous drugs, drug paraphernalia and marijuana"
As to what the other "dangerous drugs" are a mystery. Weed by itself is much less of an issue than other drugs, and medicinal use is legal in Alabama, though I guess his was recreational.
ME-Sen - Horror author Stephen King (not the same person as the former Iowa Congressman/white supremacist) seems to be the only person of note who is wanting Graham Platner to continue his campaign:
Yeah, King also said the Epstein files didn't exist, so...
Side note: those comments are disgusting and clearly misinformed. One person said he was "the candidate" for over a year. Platner joined the race less than 11 months ago.
Cenk has been actively working for the GOP side (in the same way Tulsi did before him) for years now. There is no reason whatsoever to treat him as a good faith actor.
Phew. Nevermind then, will delete.
First Paxton is loving having lived in California, now violating TX election law?
Talarico never stops getting more to work with here.
He was also seen with his mistress in London.
Party of family values!
Paxton has time to travel to London?
Did he ever meet Nigel Farage?
Residency in Texas for terms of voting is very fluid as you only have to have the "intention" to return to an address to keep voting there. This resulted in a huge (and ongoing) fight in the country's smallest county, Loving, where they almost always cast more votes than the census shows lives there!
Remarkable that there’s a narrow chance we could actually carry this seat
The district is nearly 40% AA. I haven't done the math, but I would imagine 20% of the white vote would be enough to win. But it's Alabama.
But it’s Alabama
Emphasis on the last phrase. If I want to split the hair, I’d go “But this part of Alabama”.
In the Tennessee valley, or suburbs of the larger cities, it is possible to get White support in mid teens, or twenties, or even high thirties in some pockets.
But for this part, I’d be surprised any Federal D gets more than single digits.
Fair point
Maybe is the suburbs of Birmingham but in rural Alabama I think it closer to 10%
Below 10%
It is quite likely that Rep Figures does get exactly around 44% in the fall.
That’s generally how internal polls work for an incumbent congressperson. If they aren’t in the high 40s in their own poll as an incumbent, they likely aren’t winning unfortunately.
True. Though to be fair, his district has been changed so it's not a typical incumbent race.
I really think a lot of politicos (not just Dems!) are underrating the importance of data centers are this cycle. People HATE the centers and I could really see it being a tipping-point issue in more competitive elections.
Democrats can have leverage on this issue to the extent where it would result in pushing for more regulation on technology, including the infrastructure that supports it.
Tech cannot be everything in society.
They are the perfect foil.
The large AI data centers are only built by large corporations. The end goal of their use is to eliminate jobs. They do not contribute the community hosting them, and in fact add significant infrastructure costs.
They're the perfect enemy to attack.
There was a story not long ago that the majority of the members a city council were RECALLED by the voters. They had approved a data center in their town.
Does anyone remember that story or where is was?
Its a complete missed opportunity if dems dont go after data centers, it even has Abbott in texas backtracking and talking about regulation after he wanted to flood our state with them.
I would appreciate it greatly if people--not solely dragonfire5004--would put quotation marks, you know these things " " ,around excepts they're quoting. It makes it much easier to discern what's in the poster's voice and what's the excerpt being quoted. I see this here a lot. It's possibly the only thing I don't like about the posts here. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ;>)
Please note that you now need to be a subscriber to The Downballot to post comments (Substack just rolled this out as a feature). This will clamp down on drive-by trolling by non-subscribers.
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Good. The trolling was becoming a bit of a problem, so I’m glad we have a solution.
Good work!
Out of curiosity, are a lot of regulars non-subscribers? I hope we don't see a sharp drop-off from regular commentators.
Not sure why anyone would comment on a newsletter they're not subscribed to in the first place, but people surprise you!
I did for several months before I broke down and got the subscription. Financial duress or old-fashioned cheapness can make people do things that don't make much sense.
Oh I meant paid or otherwise, I currently can't afford a paid subscription.
There are definitely frequent commenters who are free subscribers (as opposed to paid), but outright non-subscribers who comment are typically just trolls who never return. At least now, these would-be trolls will be forced to subscribe if they want to try to comment!
Fortuitous timing!
Some thoughts:
- Phil Scott being outfundraised is interesting. I’d assumed he was too popular in the state for that. Probably doesn’t mean much though.
- That AIPAC is spending to stop Cori Bush indicates to me that Bell might be vulnerable. I heard somewhere (I think on Bluesky) from someone who knows someone in St Louis that Bell is not popular and scandal-plagued. We’ll see where this goes.
- That Vicente Gonzalez poll is alarming. Should we be worried here?
The TX-34 poll is a Flores internal, and the best they can come up with is a 3-point lead, so that may actually be a good result.
Didn’t think of that scenario. That is a good point. Combined with other recent polls (like the Mike Carey one), we do seem to be in good shape.
- I’d agree it’s surprising and encouraging but his name recognition alone could probably win the race.
- I don’t know about Bell being scandal-ridden, but I do think they’re vulnerable to Bush especially with younger voters (which takes up 31% of the district) heavily leaning progressive so far this cycle.
-It seems we might need to be on edge, but hopefully an anomaly
Bell had an ethics scandal where he apparently bought a car for someone with campaign money.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/wesley-bell-used-35000-in-campaign
There was also the incident where his security roughed up some Jewish town hall attendees protesting his foreign policy stances.
Dunno, AIPAC definitely likes Bell, so we'd expect them to support him again, even if he's a likely winner. It was never likely to be safe for him.
-Aly Richards and Amanda Janoo are in the business world. They're bound to know how to fundraise.
-Yeah, spending on his behalf can only go so far, and this seems to be the year of the DSA, so who knows.
-I'm more concerned about the TX-28 poll with Tijerina comfortably ahead of Cuellar.
Bush and Bell have both been unpopular over years. It’s a bit of a race to the bottom there.
A progressive other than Bush coming back would probably be blowing him out
Yep. Bell is awful, and I did not like his office or his reported sexual harassment when he was a prosecutor.
Bush, on the other hand, was a lousy congresswoman. Her constituent services were mostly non-existent unless you had some kind of special relationship with Bush (or Tish).
Bush came across as a blowhard who did little for her district (that has a lot of struggles).
I lived two blocks from Bush's congressional office. I lived on Washington, and worked on Market, so I walked past her office every day to and from work. Never once did I see the office open. They must have kept ridiculously short hours there.
I agree strongly that some other progressive could possibly demolish Bell. But few are pining for the return of Cory Bush
Best thing I can say about Bush is that she's certainly costing AIPAC a lot of cash.
Please AIPAC would spend millions slandering whichever progressive dared oppose their golden boy. It would be competitive no matter what because of that. But I do agree that Bush probably isn’t the best candidate to go against Bell.
I think this is probably true. A DSA-type without Bush's baggage would probably win this in a walk, particularly under the new lines.
Bush is a fighter for average people. Her experience being homeless with kids gives her empathy for those struggling. We need more in Congress like her- instead of the bought and paid for Bell.
I have seen zero indication that Bush is anything besides a self-promoter.
She also fights against cancer... through spiritual healing https://nbcmontana.com/news/nation-world/squad-member-claimed-womans-tumors-disappeared-when-she-touched-them-rep-cori-bush-d-mo-democrat-missouri-congress-politics-pbs-firing-line-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-r-ga
In general I think Bush had her time in congress to prove she was serious and could be effective, and didn't succeed.
Platner isn’t the only career that should be over after this. If the DSCC hadn’t put a hand on the scale for Janet Mills and sucked out all the oxygen, we wouldn’t be in this position. Schumer must go as Senate leader for this.
Maybe the DSCC needs members who realize that each state is different and maybe it should not interfere in primaries unless to counter Republican interference. I also advocate listening to the people on the ground, especially in rural states.
Two of the most important Democrats both being from New York doesn't inspire confidence, and of the vice chairs only one is from a swing state (and it's Mark Kelly)
Kelly is from New Jersey, lol.
Okay, but he represents a swing state
If there's any justice in the world, the Pod Save America crew should suffer consequences for running interference for Platner each time he had a skeleton fall out of the closet.
Especially after they piled onto Biden in 2024.
As a PSA listener, I don't think that's quite accurate. The only time they "ran interference" was giving him an interview after the tattoo revelation, and they always have an open door policy for any Dem candidates who want to talk. They interviewed Janet Mills as well.
They did ask him tough questions, but he then answered them in a compelling way.
Since then, I don't recall them ever boosting Platner. Instead, they simply noted that he was resonating more with Maine voters than Mills, which was true.
They in no way pressed him hard on the tattoo, LMAO. They blindly took his bullshit answer at face value with little pushback despite all the red flags about his lies then.
They pressed him on the Reddit posts, and again, after that interview, the hosts noted many times that more stuff coming out about Platner would create problems. It's not like they were constantly rah-rahing for Platner and never acknowledging the possibility of trouble.
Let me get this straight- Progressives recruited Platner, and apparently did no vetting Progressives endorsed him and raised money for him and stuck by him after his scandals started to come out and finally enough scandals have come out that he has to drop out and you want to blame the Democratic establishment for this mess? Give me a break. This mess belongs to the Progressives.
I don't completely disagree with you. The high-level progressive backers of Platner who didn't vet him/kept supporting him after the NYT article* do bear great blame. I still maintain that DSCC is to blame as well, because they pushed out Dan Kleban in favor of Janet Mills rather than just let the primary play out:
https://www.notus.org/democrats/chuck-schumer-dscc-senate-primaries
This is absolutely *not* what I want DSCC to do. Kleban had no scandals and would have been a perfectly legitimate candidate.
*I still think Fifield sucks in many ways but that doesn't mean she was wrong about Platner's character.
How was Dan Kleban, a some guy, polling against Platner before Mills entered the race?
I don't know, but how would he have performed after the NYT reporting? We'll never know, because DSCC interfered.
Not particularly well
He was barely registering
Mills would not have won. Her approval ratings were poor, she was disliked by groups including unions and I believe also the Native American population, and Platner not existing wouldn’t have saved her. Both the left and Schumer are to blame.
I fucking knew this whole scandal was going to be used to bash the left here. I was prepared for the comments. I still don’t think this is the left alone’s fault.
This current little disagreement started because a poster here used Platner to bash the party, but you knew he would be used to bash the left? It was the other way around.
No, what I was saying was that I knew the Platner scandal was going to be used to bash the left when it happened yesterday. I was dreading the response, which was pretty much exactly what I expected.
To be honest I am tired of ideological infighting in general, left or center. It’s going to cost our party if we don’t get it under control.
The reason the left is getting bashed is because they pushed a candidate without doing any vetting and they continued to back him after it became obvious that he had serious flaws and this mess could cost us an important Senate seat. If the left wants to run candidates for office in important races, they need to pick serious candidates who have been vetted and who are strong ideological fits for their seat. Instead they have been picking flawed candidates like Platner and Andrew Gillum or cranks like Chevalier, Kiros or Hong who will be a drag on the entire party. The left also has the nasty habit of sabotaging races when their candidate loses a seriously contested primary or when the Democratic candidate fails one of their endless "purity tests.". Politics is serious business with serious consequences for everyone. People get hurt when we lose important races and Republicans who campaigned on hurting immigrants, minorities, LGBT people and others get in the majority and attack those communities. Some of us are getting tired of seeing people getting hurt because the not ready for primetime left either pushes a terrible candidate on us or sits on their hands when their favored candidate loses the primary.
The left certainly aren’t alone in sabotaging races. Just a week or two ago Kara Eastman was brought up as a candidate where the previous Dem endorsed the GOP opponent. There is also the infamous Buffalo mayoral race where the incumbent mayor lost his primary and was blatantly pushed through by the party as a write in. I also do not like the insinuation that the left sabotage races regularly. If that were uniformly true, Biden would have lost in 2020.
“Strong ideological fits” - what do you mean by that? Are you telling progressives to change their ideology? Because I, for one, am not backing off my support for universal healthcare, for instance. I feel like the description of the left used in your analogy is a bit of a monolith. Brad Lander certainly wasn’t a flawed candidate. And while DAC and Kiros may not be popular here, they are in deep blue seats and are in no danger of losing. MTG and her crew didn’t stop Trump from winning again, and I really don’t think a random voter in, say, Iowa or Texas is going to base their vote on DAC.
Mind you, I agree that situations like that of Hong are not good, and there are cases where a progressive flat out cannot win. But like it or not, there are very left wing Democrats out there, and denying them a presence in Congress, even if you don’t like them, is, in my opinion, anti-democratic.
And as for the purity test comment, the number of online center-left fights I’ve seen has shown me the left is far from alone in using purity tests. Again, see Eastman and Walton. Is asking candidates to moderate large segments of their views not a purity test in and of itself? What happened to letting voters decide in the primaries?
This is not to absolve the left of all responsibility, mind you. I’m not happy about Platner not being vetted adequately either, I’m not happy about Hong, or Matt Dunlap, or all the idiots who didn’t vote for Kamala due to a topic that is banned here. I’m just saying that blaming the left alone for all these problems is simplistic, and sends the message that only voters of one ideology are allowed in what is supposed to be the big-tent opposition to Trump. As much as I didn’t and don’t like people like Manchin or Golden or MGP or whoever, I didn’t and don’t want them primaried because only they can win their seats.
You're right, but I'm not seeing blame of the left only for everything, but for things leftists deserve blame for. It wasn't the conservative Democrats who supported Platner, so their faults are not too topical in this context.
Perhaps. I got a little thrown off when DAC and Kiros got roped into it as neither are actually in swing seats (and I don’t think they will hurt us in other states) but I get the general point. Believe me, I’m not happy about how this was handled either.
I said a couple weeks ago that if the left wants to have a serious chance to get political power they need to nominate serious candidates who have been seriously vetted. They have been putting up too many candidates with serious personal flaws or who are bomb throwers. Nominate more James Talaricos and fewer Darializa Chevaliers.
I wish I could like this about a billion times. And, to clarify, I don't have a problem with candidates simply for being on the Left - it's when we get unserious candidates who can either cost us seats (i.e. Platner, Hong) or be hung around the necks of all Dems (Chevalier, Kiros) that the problems occur.
Maybe you haven't seen the numerous positive things I've said about AOC as just one example. It's not the left I cannot tolerate, it's unserious people representing us (or trying to). There are plenty of people well to my left who I respect and like, even if our politics don't align, and have said as much here. Go back and read what I wrote about Mamdani when he was elected. I do think that many of our "not ready for primetime" players are on the left. I don't think it's because they're on the left, but rather because that's where the insurgent energy is right now and that's more likely to bring those sorts of people to the fore. I also don't love this desire we seem to have for "fighters" rather than serious legislators. I don't generally talk in extreme terms, but if you can point me to an extreme comment I've made, I'm happy to apologize for it.
As a member of the left, I agree with both you guys.
Problem is that I remember folks not so long ago claiming Mamdani would be hung around our necks. Some centrist folks went so far as to back someone who had to resign from office over sexual assault allegations instead.
I think Mamdani IS going to get hung around our necks in purple districts/states this fall. That said, he's clearly not "not ready for primetime" in the way Kiros and Chevalier (to say nothing on Galindo) are....
Yes, this.
I think both Progressives and the Establishment are to blame.
If Schumer had not interfered and created a vacuum of basically no candidates all the way until October, then Platner wouldn't have been able to take off as easily.
This is more a general issue but when people say "the party didn't vet him" or "progressives need to vet better" do they mean that individual people should be hiring opposition research firms and comms folks to dig into the life of every person who runs for office? Some people just decide to run and through their personalities convince elected officials to support them. And of course people lie. This isn't the UK where the parties interview and "vet" candidates before giving them their formal support. Oppo dumps almost always come from other campaigns that pay people to find the dirt.
Honestly? I would absolutely support that for high profile elections where having a strong candidate is necessary. We don't do enough oppo research on our opponents, never mind our own potential candidates.
Right??! Also, I'm not the type to say "I told you all so"...wait, yes I am. I told you all so! As I said months ago - where there's smoke there's fire - and the drip drip drip of Platner revelations turned into a 5 alarm blaze (I realize I am mixing metaphors here). The only silver lining is that we can now choose the best possible replacement, so hopefully we are focused on figuring out who that is. Kleban would be a good choice, as could Jackson.
I'm not sure Kleban would be a bad choice, but I do take your point that replacing one untested, unvetted option with another risks recreating the same issue. I'm fine with Jackson and have said as much here - he's a good fit for Maine and would be a likely winner against Collins in this environment.
Ok, I wondered how Platner came to be a candidate. He was recruited by Dan Moraff, who was seeking a "working class" candidate. The NYT, Washington Post, National Review, WSJ all have stories on him. Apparently, he helped craft Platner as a candidate but just had a cursory background check on him, rather than paying for a more expensive vetting. Maybe we should be looking at the political operatives involved.
Absurd. Bernie's astroturfed joke sucked out the air the second he was pushed on the state. No one else had any traction. Mills was a hail Mary to stop the OBVIOUS train wreck we were all hurtling to.
That is not true at all. Mills entered with a big lead. I know Bernie-bashing is a favorite pastime for many on here, but he is not the source of all evil. Nor does he control the polling.
Platner had a 34 point lead in a poll when Mills entered. I try to avoid basing Sanders on here even though I can't stand him, but I will absolutely bash him for this. He pushed this fraud on us. He put the full weight of the national left wing movement behind him and helped make him the candidate. He and his people bear far more responsibility for this than our other incompetent leaders.
And some of us have not forgotten the Fetterman fiasco.
You know, not everyone on the left liked Platner. On left Bluesky I have been seeing attacks on him and his character for months. Progressives aren’t a monolith.
When did I say the left was a monolith? I'm talking about Bernie Sanders?
Oh sorry. Misinterpreted your comment. When you mentioned the national left wing movement I thought that was what you meant. That one’s on me, apologies.
I don't think random people on Bluesky are relevant to any discussion.
I just meant in the context of, there is some form of backlash to Platner among the left base.
This is a good point and one we should all keep in mind. For what it's worth, moderates aren't a monolith either :)
I think the real trick here is that it's not an ideological wing of the party that is uniquely at fault in these cases.
If we want to blame progressives for Platner, we'd have to give moderate/establishment people blame for Swalwell. The two of them are impressively similar scenarios, in that there was reason for people in the know to back off from the candidate but they opted not to do so.
That's not even touching on the support from parts of the party for Cuomo, where his sexual assault problems were not only not a surprise, but outright known because the revelations happened before that election.
I blame individuals in all these cases. Sanders gets some blame for Platner, just as Schiff gets some blame for Swalwell, just as Suozzi gets some for Cuomo.
Speaking as a lefty, I believe I called him a shit sandwich here or in the discord. But, like Schumer, I agreed he was our best chance of winning...until he wasn't.
He deserves at least some blame for blindly throwing his weight behind this nobody without any vetting. He is not clean at all in this mess. Were it not for him, the progressive field probably wouldn’t have been frozen out for Platner.
I've also noticed that he hasn't withdrawn his endorsement, unlike pretty much everyone else.
I think it’s fair to look askance at his judgement in who he endorses and throws his weight behind early in particular. Then note upthread about Andrew Gillum being busted on drug charges comes to mind
So this is Schumers fault and not DSA/progressives bad choices? Interesting take.
Both are to blame.
Schumer wasn't able to get a candidate better than Mills to run, and progressives need to find better candidates when they put somebody forward.
Schumer needs to go, but this is a minor reason why.
My belief is that had Troy Jackson or any of the other Gov candidates stepped up initially to run for Senate, the DSCC would have coalesced around that person. But everyone was so shell-shocked by her 2020 performance that there was a huge void that an "outsider" filled. Don't think Mills wanted it at all (she's almost 80!!) but took one for the team to give folks a non-scandal option.
Schumer needs to go because the candidate he clearly opposed turned out not to be viable? You're gonna have to walk me through the logic there....
Please elaborate on what you mean here?
At the end of the day, there is only one person to blame: Graham Planter! He knew he had these skeletons in his background and he ran anyway. I never understand why people with things to hide runs or accepts high office. Sooner or later everything will come out. It's like Denny Hestert, he knew he was a child molester and still ran for office and for one of the highest offices in the land. You will always eventually either get exposed or blackmailed (Hestert got both).
Hastert came along in a different era—during the 1980s in a district that, at the time, would elect a comatose Republican. The list of politicians who would have been brought down by scandals like this had they not been in safe districts is a long one. Bill Young comes to mind.
Repost from the weekend post:
Yet another big journalist mistake here, although McConnell very much could be deceased.
The Hill accidentally released an article on McConnells life, how they release an article that specifically says DO NOT USE who knows.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2074274620308414591
I still don't get the reason for keeping it secret if he's dead, he won't be replaced by a Dem in any scenario
I think if they're covering something up, it's not that he's secretly dead. It's that he's alive but incapable of serving in some way.
I'm not going to speculate on if something is being kept secret.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has just resigned his Clacton seat in the wake of his recent financial scandals.
Reform have led in the polls since November 2024.
He will contest the by-election. Although he has said, if he loses he will resign the leadership.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn0v9l9x0g8t
The only way for him to lose the by-election is for the main left party (Greens, Liberal Democrats, Labour) to not stand a candidate and consolidate around the Conservatives. Farage got 46% of the vote alone in 2024 their polling vote has doubled from the amount they got in the 2024 election.
Or alternatively Restore could try to go for a knockout blow to supplant Reform
Potentially, the only danger of that is no one knows how popular Restore are anywhere really let alone in Clacton, a dangerous game to play.
Well looks like they’ll not be running.
https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2074510169514414475?s=46
Farage has resigned his seat because he was on the verge of being expelled from the House of Commons for failing to declare large financial contributions, including from a convicted fraudster. He's attempting to get ahead of the story.
He also made claims saying he was the most attacked politician ever, which is a weird thing to say seem as Jo Cox and David Amess were killed in the last 10 years.
Like when Trump said he was treated worse than Lincoln!
Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe has announced he will make an announcement on his plans later on today for the by-election.
https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2074489231985012838?s=46
Restore will not run, looks like it’s over.
https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2074510169514414475?s=46
There is a chance all major parties boycott it
This is now the case, we'll see how many random independents and minor party candidates run.
A few things:
-quite the mess in Alaska. I see new people ahead each poll, and it's surprising a former governor might not make top 4.
-On the AZ-1 item, his name is Jay Feely, with just two e's.
This is Walker's 4th run after one unpopular term and dropping out in mid-October in 2018. I think he's approaching perennial status.
Fixed, thank you!
6 candidates are at levels where it's hard to be sure they aren't all tied.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c70yk5xjyl1t
French courts went easy on far-right politician Marine Le Pen, taking her prison sentence down from 4 years to 1 year with an ankle monitor. This means she can run for the open presidency next year, but she says she won't.
Ah so it’s not just America got it 😩
ME-Sen - Shay Stewart-Bouley, who writes the Black Girl in Maine Substack newsletter, is hearing that Platner will drop out, although there's no confirmation from the Platner campaign:
https://www.threads.com/@blackgirlinmaine/post/Dafkt7dDo1U
He pretty much has to drop out at this point.
This isn't something he can survive, especially among Democratic voters.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/806085-gillum-arrested-on-drug-charges/
Where are they now? - Former Tallahassee, FL mayor Andrew Gillum, who narrowly lost a race for governor as the Democratic nominee in 2018, was arrested on drug charges in Alabama, one of which is a felony and could land him in prison.
it's just weed but nonetheless sad to see his life has gone so sideways.
Not just weed - the article says "dangerous drugs, drug paraphernalia and marijuana"
As to what the other "dangerous drugs" are a mystery. Weed by itself is much less of an issue than other drugs, and medicinal use is legal in Alabama, though I guess his was recreational.
Oh i misread that portion.
I'm constantly filling out my Gwen Graham apology form
He probably would have been Governor if he had picked someone else as a running mate.
Yes and I'm saying with nothing else changing but Gillum picking someone other than Chris Kennedy, I believe he would have won.
You are clearly not understanding or not paying attention to what I'm actually saying so I'm out, thanks!
ME-Sen - Horror author Stephen King (not the same person as the former Iowa Congressman/white supremacist) seems to be the only person of note who is wanting Graham Platner to continue his campaign:
https://www.threads.com/@echoesofstreet/post/DaeEwwaDahV
Obviously, I disagree with Stephen King on this issue.
Yeah, King also said the Epstein files didn't exist, so...
Side note: those comments are disgusting and clearly misinformed. One person said he was "the candidate" for over a year. Platner joined the race less than 11 months ago.
Marjorie Taylor Greene and Cenk Uygur. Great company.
Cenk also praised Trump for getting FIFA to rescind the red card suspension of Flo Balogun (only for the USMNT to lose to Belgium anyways).
Cenk has been actively working for the GOP side (in the same way Tulsi did before him) for years now. There is no reason whatsoever to treat him as a good faith actor.
He endorsed Rick Caruso back in 2022 as well. Blech.
Not to mention he and fellow long-time Young Turks co-host Ana Kasparian getting too reasonable with Tucker Carlson on his podcast.
Saw a funny post this morning: "After the latest allegations, Susan Collins vows to confirm Graham Platner to the Supreme Court."