Please note that you now need to be a subscriber to The Downballot to post comments (Substack just rolled this out as a feature). This will clamp down on drive-by trolling by non-subscribers.
This includes both paid and free subscribers, though we may limit commenting to just paid subscribers in the future.
- Phil Scott being outfundraised is interesting. I’d assumed he was too popular in the state for that. Probably doesn’t mean much though.
- That AIPAC is spending to stop Cori Bush indicates to me that Bell might be vulnerable. I heard somewhere (I think on Bluesky) from someone who knows someone in St Louis that Bell is not popular and scandal-plagued. We’ll see where this goes.
- That Vicente Gonzalez poll is alarming. Should we be worried here?
- I’d agree it’s surprising and encouraging but his name recognition alone could probably win the race.
- I don’t know about Bell being scandal-ridden, but I do think they’re vulnerable to Bush especially with younger voters (which takes up 31% of the district) heavily leaning progressive so far this cycle.
-It seems we might need to be on edge, but hopefully an anomaly
Yep. Bell is awful, and I did not like his office or his reported sexual harassment when he was a prosecutor.
Bush, on the other hand, was a lousy congresswoman. Her constituent services were mostly non-existent unless you had some kind of special relationship with Bush (or Tish).
Bush came across as a blowhard who did little for her district (that has a lot of struggles).
I lived two blocks from Bush's congressional office. I lived on Washington, and worked on Market, so I walked past her office every day to and from work. Never once did I see the office open. They must have kept ridiculously short hours there.
I agree strongly that some other progressive could possibly demolish Bell. But few are pining for the return of Cory Bush
Platner isn’t the only career that should be over after this. If the DSCC hadn’t put a hand on the scale for Janet Mills and sucked out all the oxygen, we wouldn’t be in this position. Schumer must go as Senate leader for this.
Maybe the DSCC needs members who realize that each state is different and maybe it should not interfere in primaries unless to counter Republican interference. I also advocate listening to the people on the ground, especially in rural states.
If there's any justice in the world, the Pod Save America crew should suffer consequences for running interference for Platner each time he had a skeleton fall out of the closet.
As a PSA listener, I don't think that's quite accurate. The only time they "ran interference" was giving him an interview after the tattoo revelation, and they always have an open door policy for any Dem candidates who want to talk. They interviewed Janet Mills as well.
They did ask him tough questions, but he then answered them in a compelling way.
Since then, I don't recall them ever boosting Platner. Instead, they simply noted that he was resonating more with Maine voters than Mills, which was true.
They in no way pressed him hard on the tattoo, LMAO. They blindly took his bullshit answer at face value with little pushback despite all the red flags about his lies then.
They pressed him on the Reddit posts, and again, after that interview, the hosts noted many times that more stuff coming out about Platner would create problems. It's not like they were constantly rah-rahing for Platner and never acknowledging the possibility of trouble.
Let me get this straight- Progressives recruited Platner, and apparently did no vetting Progressives endorsed him and raised money for him and stuck by him after his scandals started to come out and finally enough scandals have come out that he has to drop out and you want to blame the Democratic establishment for this mess? Give me a break. This mess belongs to the Progressives.
I don't completely disagree with you. The high-level progressive backers of Platner who didn't vet him/kept supporting him after the NYT article* do bear great blame. I still maintain that DSCC is to blame as well, because they pushed out Dan Kleban in favor of Janet Mills rather than just let the primary play out:
Mills would not have won. Her approval ratings were poor, she was disliked by groups including unions and I believe also the Native American population, and Platner not existing wouldn’t have saved her. Both the left and Schumer are to blame.
I fucking knew this whole scandal was going to be used to bash the left here. I was prepared for the comments. I still don’t think this is the left alone’s fault.
This current little disagreement started because a poster here used Platner to bash the party, but you knew he would be used to bash the left? It was the other way around.
No, what I was saying was that I knew the Platner scandal was going to be used to bash the left when it happened yesterday. I was dreading the response, which was pretty much exactly what I expected.
To be honest I am tired of ideological infighting in general, left or center. It’s going to cost our party if we don’t get it under control.
I think both Progressives and the Establishment are to blame.
If Schumer had not interfered and created a vacuum of basically no candidates all the way until October, then Platner wouldn't have been able to take off as easily.
Absurd. Bernie's astroturfed joke sucked out the air the second he was pushed on the state. No one else had any traction. Mills was a hail Mary to stop the OBVIOUS train wreck we were all hurtling to.
That is not true at all. Mills entered with a big lead. I know Bernie-bashing is a favorite pastime for many on here, but he is not the source of all evil. Nor does he control the polling.
Platner had a 34 point lead in a poll when Mills entered. I try to avoid basing Sanders on here even though I can't stand him, but I will absolutely bash him for this. He pushed this fraud on us. He put the full weight of the national left wing movement behind him and helped make him the candidate. He and his people bear far more responsibility for this than our other incompetent leaders.
You know, not everyone on the left liked Platner. On left Bluesky I have been seeing attacks on him and his character for months. Progressives aren’t a monolith.
Oh sorry. Misinterpreted your comment. When you mentioned the national left wing movement I thought that was what you meant. That one’s on me, apologies.
He deserves at least some blame for blindly throwing his weight behind this nobody without any vetting. He is not clean at all in this mess. Were it not for him, the progressive field probably wouldn’t have been frozen out for Platner.
I think it’s fair to look askance at his judgement in who he endorses and throws his weight behind early in particular. Then note upthread about Andrew Gillum being busted on drug charges comes to mind
The only way for him to lose the by-election is for the main left party (Greens, Liberal Democrats, Labour) to not stand a candidate and consolidate around the Conservatives. Farage got 46% of the vote alone in 2024 their polling vote has doubled from the amount they got in the 2024 election.
Farage has resigned his seat because he was on the verge of being expelled from the House of Commons for failing to declare large financial contributions, including from a convicted fraudster. He's attempting to get ahead of the story.
He also made claims saying he was the most attacked politician ever, which is a weird thing to say seem as Jo Cox and David Amess were killed in the last 10 years.
An excellent article about why the DSA candidates are winning primaries so much or in other words it’s not an ideological revolt as our voters have suddenly all become socialists. Instead, it’s a revolt of the status quo from all wings/voters of our party. The current leaders got us Trump, twice!
You don’t think our voters would be apocalyptically angry about that psychological turmoil they’ve been put through? Enough to shift their prior voting patterns? Even if that means voting someone to their left as moderates and centrists have been doing this cycle?
Our party broke our voter base’s trust, so now they’re looking for anyone who resolutely says they’re going to fight Trump/MAGA with everything they’ve got.
Another great piece written by the incredible data analyst G Elliott Morris:
One thing nobody has shown yet is that the revolt against establishment Democrats is not confined to left-wing voters. In this week’s Deep Dive I show these DSA candidates are polling well not just among people who call themselves progressives, but center-left voters and moderates, too. And I analyze the actual speech they’ve campaigned on to understand why.
Democrats want their leaders to fight, not move left or right
My answer to this article’s central question is that the current factor driving many Democrats to support left-wing candidates isn’t ideology, but a revolt against the party’s leadership and political establishment more broadly. The central conflict is less over seizing the means of production and more akin to what I’ve called the anti-system axis in American politics. Let me explain what I mean by this, and why I think the data conclusively shows Democratic primary voters aren’t being drawn primarily to the leftism of these DSA candidate, but rather their anti-party orientation.
I would appreciate it greatly if people--not solely dragonfire5004--would put quotation marks, you know these things " " ,around excepts they're quoting. It makes it much easier to discern what's in the poster's voice and what's the excerpt being quoted. I see this here a lot. It's possibly the only thing I don't like about the posts here. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ;>)
French courts went easy on far-right politician Marine Le Pen, taking her prison sentence down from 4 years to 1 year with an ankle monitor. This means she can run for the open presidency next year, but she says she won't.
I really think a lot of politicos (not just Dems!) are underrating the importance of data centers are this cycle. People HATE the centers and I could really see it being a tipping-point issue in more competitive elections.
ME-Sen - Shay Stewart-Bouley, who writes the Black Girl in Maine Substack newsletter, is hearing that Platner will drop out, although there's no confirmation from the Platner campaign:
Where are they now? - Former Tallahassee, FL mayor Andrew Gillum, who narrowly lost a race for governor as the Democratic nominee in 2018, was arrested on drug charges in Alabama, one of which is a felony and could land him in prison.
Not just weed - the article says "dangerous drugs, drug paraphernalia and marijuana"
As to what the other "dangerous drugs" are a mystery. Weed by itself is much less of an issue than other drugs, and medicinal use is legal in Alabama, though I guess his was recreational.
ME-Sen - Horror author Stephen King (not the same person as the former Iowa Congressman/white supremacist) seems to be the only person of note who is wanting Graham Platner to continue his campaign:
Yeah, King also said the Epstein files didn't exist, so...
Side note: those comments are disgusting and clearly misinformed. One person said he was "the candidate" for over a year. Platner joined the race less than 11 months ago.
MI-Sen/MN-Sen - Suzanne Lambert, the social media influencer who got into a bizarre feud with Haley Stevens's campaign a few days ago, is claiming that Congressional staffers for Stevens and Angie Craig loathe working for them:
Unlike, for example, Katie Porter, I don't know of any allegations of a hostile work environment against Stevens or Craig, although I would guess that the two are more ideologically moderate than the median staffer for a Democratic Member of Congress.
I wonder if we'll get a wave of Congressional Progressive Caucus members endorsing Flanagan. Angie Craig has dominated the outside-of-Minnesota Congressional endorsements up to this point, although virtually all of them have been from moderate/establishment factions of the party.
Frost continues to impress me. I was unsure of him at first since he pivoted to the right like his friend Manny Rutinel when he began running, but he's been great so far.
Please note that you now need to be a subscriber to The Downballot to post comments (Substack just rolled this out as a feature). This will clamp down on drive-by trolling by non-subscribers.
This includes both paid and free subscribers, though we may limit commenting to just paid subscribers in the future.
And as a reminder, if you haven't already familiarized yourself with our Rules of the Road for our community, please do so here: https://www.the-downballot.com/p/the-downballots-community-rules-of
Good. The trolling was becoming a bit of a problem, so I’m glad we have a solution.
Good work!
Some thoughts:
- Phil Scott being outfundraised is interesting. I’d assumed he was too popular in the state for that. Probably doesn’t mean much though.
- That AIPAC is spending to stop Cori Bush indicates to me that Bell might be vulnerable. I heard somewhere (I think on Bluesky) from someone who knows someone in St Louis that Bell is not popular and scandal-plagued. We’ll see where this goes.
- That Vicente Gonzalez poll is alarming. Should we be worried here?
The TX-34 poll is a Flores internal, and the best they can come up with is a 3-point lead, so that may actually be a good result.
Didn’t think of that scenario. That is a good point. Combined with other recent polls (like the Mike Carey one), we do seem to be in good shape.
- I’d agree it’s surprising and encouraging but his name recognition alone could probably win the race.
- I don’t know about Bell being scandal-ridden, but I do think they’re vulnerable to Bush especially with younger voters (which takes up 31% of the district) heavily leaning progressive so far this cycle.
-It seems we might need to be on edge, but hopefully an anomaly
Bell had an ethics scandal where he apparently bought a car for someone with campaign money.
https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/wesley-bell-used-35000-in-campaign
Dunno, AIPAC definitely likes Bell, so we'd expect them to support him again, even if he's a likely winner. It was never likely to be safe for him.
-Aly Richards and Amanda Janoo are in the business world. They're bound to know how to fundraise.
-Yeah, spending on his behalf can only go so far, and this seems to be the year of the DSA, so who knows.
-I'm more concerned about the TX-28 poll with Tijerina comfortably ahead of Cuellar.
Bush and Bell have both been unpopular over years. It’s a bit of a race to the bottom there.
A progressive other than Bush coming back would probably be blowing him out
Yep. Bell is awful, and I did not like his office or his reported sexual harassment when he was a prosecutor.
Bush, on the other hand, was a lousy congresswoman. Her constituent services were mostly non-existent unless you had some kind of special relationship with Bush (or Tish).
Bush came across as a blowhard who did little for her district (that has a lot of struggles).
I lived two blocks from Bush's congressional office. I lived on Washington, and worked on Market, so I walked past her office every day to and from work. Never once did I see the office open. They must have kept ridiculously short hours there.
I agree strongly that some other progressive could possibly demolish Bell. But few are pining for the return of Cory Bush
Platner isn’t the only career that should be over after this. If the DSCC hadn’t put a hand on the scale for Janet Mills and sucked out all the oxygen, we wouldn’t be in this position. Schumer must go as Senate leader for this.
Maybe the DSCC needs members who realize that each state is different and maybe it should not interfere in primaries unless to counter Republican interference. I also advocate listening to the people on the ground, especially in rural states.
If there's any justice in the world, the Pod Save America crew should suffer consequences for running interference for Platner each time he had a skeleton fall out of the closet.
Especially after they piled onto Biden in 2024.
As a PSA listener, I don't think that's quite accurate. The only time they "ran interference" was giving him an interview after the tattoo revelation, and they always have an open door policy for any Dem candidates who want to talk. They interviewed Janet Mills as well.
They did ask him tough questions, but he then answered them in a compelling way.
Since then, I don't recall them ever boosting Platner. Instead, they simply noted that he was resonating more with Maine voters than Mills, which was true.
They in no way pressed him hard on the tattoo, LMAO. They blindly took his bullshit answer at face value with little pushback despite all the red flags about his lies then.
They pressed him on the Reddit posts, and again, after that interview, the hosts noted many times that more stuff coming out about Platner would create problems. It's not like they were constantly rah-rahing for Platner and never acknowledging the possibility of trouble.
Let me get this straight- Progressives recruited Platner, and apparently did no vetting Progressives endorsed him and raised money for him and stuck by him after his scandals started to come out and finally enough scandals have come out that he has to drop out and you want to blame the Democratic establishment for this mess? Give me a break. This mess belongs to the Progressives.
I don't completely disagree with you. The high-level progressive backers of Platner who didn't vet him/kept supporting him after the NYT article* do bear great blame. I still maintain that DSCC is to blame as well, because they pushed out Dan Kleban in favor of Janet Mills rather than just let the primary play out:
https://www.notus.org/democrats/chuck-schumer-dscc-senate-primaries
This is absolutely *not* what I want DSCC to do. Kleban had no scandals and would have been a perfectly legitimate candidate.
*I still think Fifield sucks in many ways but that doesn't mean she was wrong about Platner's character.
How was Dan Kleban, a some guy, polling against Platner before Mills entered the race?
I don't know, but how would he have performed after the NYT reporting? We'll never know, because DSCC interfered.
Not particularly well
Mills would not have won. Her approval ratings were poor, she was disliked by groups including unions and I believe also the Native American population, and Platner not existing wouldn’t have saved her. Both the left and Schumer are to blame.
I fucking knew this whole scandal was going to be used to bash the left here. I was prepared for the comments. I still don’t think this is the left alone’s fault.
This current little disagreement started because a poster here used Platner to bash the party, but you knew he would be used to bash the left? It was the other way around.
No, what I was saying was that I knew the Platner scandal was going to be used to bash the left when it happened yesterday. I was dreading the response, which was pretty much exactly what I expected.
To be honest I am tired of ideological infighting in general, left or center. It’s going to cost our party if we don’t get it under control.
I think both Progressives and the Establishment are to blame.
If Schumer had not interfered and created a vacuum of basically no candidates all the way until October, then Platner wouldn't have been able to take off as easily.
Absurd. Bernie's astroturfed joke sucked out the air the second he was pushed on the state. No one else had any traction. Mills was a hail Mary to stop the OBVIOUS train wreck we were all hurtling to.
That is not true at all. Mills entered with a big lead. I know Bernie-bashing is a favorite pastime for many on here, but he is not the source of all evil. Nor does he control the polling.
Platner had a 34 point lead in a poll when Mills entered. I try to avoid basing Sanders on here even though I can't stand him, but I will absolutely bash him for this. He pushed this fraud on us. He put the full weight of the national left wing movement behind him and helped make him the candidate. He and his people bear far more responsibility for this than our other incompetent leaders.
And some of us have not forgotten the Fetterman fiasco.
You know, not everyone on the left liked Platner. On left Bluesky I have been seeing attacks on him and his character for months. Progressives aren’t a monolith.
When did I say the left was a monolith? I'm talking about Bernie Sanders?
Oh sorry. Misinterpreted your comment. When you mentioned the national left wing movement I thought that was what you meant. That one’s on me, apologies.
He deserves at least some blame for blindly throwing his weight behind this nobody without any vetting. He is not clean at all in this mess. Were it not for him, the progressive field probably wouldn’t have been frozen out for Platner.
I've also noticed that he hasn't withdrawn his endorsement, unlike pretty much everyone else.
I think it’s fair to look askance at his judgement in who he endorses and throws his weight behind early in particular. Then note upthread about Andrew Gillum being busted on drug charges comes to mind
So this is Schumers fault and not DSA/progressives bad choices? Interesting take.
Both are to blame.
Schumer needs to go, but this is a minor reason why.
Repost from the weekend post:
Yet another big journalist mistake here, although McConnell very much could be deceased.
The Hill accidentally released an article on McConnells life, how they release an article that specifically says DO NOT USE who knows.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2074274620308414591
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage has just resigned his Clacton seat in the wake of his recent financial scandals.
Reform have led in the polls since November 2024.
He will contest the by-election. Although he has said, if he loses he will resign the leadership.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn0v9l9x0g8t
The only way for him to lose the by-election is for the main left party (Greens, Liberal Democrats, Labour) to not stand a candidate and consolidate around the Conservatives. Farage got 46% of the vote alone in 2024 their polling vote has doubled from the amount they got in the 2024 election.
Farage has resigned his seat because he was on the verge of being expelled from the House of Commons for failing to declare large financial contributions, including from a convicted fraudster. He's attempting to get ahead of the story.
He also made claims saying he was the most attacked politician ever, which is a weird thing to say seem as Jo Cox and David Amess were killed in the last 10 years.
Restore Britain leader Rupert Lowe has announced he will make an announcement on his plans later on today for the by-election.
https://x.com/rupertlowe10/status/2074489231985012838?s=46
An excellent article about why the DSA candidates are winning primaries so much or in other words it’s not an ideological revolt as our voters have suddenly all become socialists. Instead, it’s a revolt of the status quo from all wings/voters of our party. The current leaders got us Trump, twice!
You don’t think our voters would be apocalyptically angry about that psychological turmoil they’ve been put through? Enough to shift their prior voting patterns? Even if that means voting someone to their left as moderates and centrists have been doing this cycle?
Our party broke our voter base’s trust, so now they’re looking for anyone who resolutely says they’re going to fight Trump/MAGA with everything they’ve got.
Another great piece written by the incredible data analyst G Elliott Morris:
https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-07-07-democratic-fracture-not-ideology
One thing nobody has shown yet is that the revolt against establishment Democrats is not confined to left-wing voters. In this week’s Deep Dive I show these DSA candidates are polling well not just among people who call themselves progressives, but center-left voters and moderates, too. And I analyze the actual speech they’ve campaigned on to understand why.
Democrats want their leaders to fight, not move left or right
My answer to this article’s central question is that the current factor driving many Democrats to support left-wing candidates isn’t ideology, but a revolt against the party’s leadership and political establishment more broadly. The central conflict is less over seizing the means of production and more akin to what I’ve called the anti-system axis in American politics. Let me explain what I mean by this, and why I think the data conclusively shows Democratic primary voters aren’t being drawn primarily to the leftism of these DSA candidate, but rather their anti-party orientation.
I would appreciate it greatly if people--not solely dragonfire5004--would put quotation marks, you know these things " " ,around excepts they're quoting. It makes it much easier to discern what's in the poster's voice and what's the excerpt being quoted. I see this here a lot. It's possibly the only thing I don't like about the posts here. Thank you for your attention to this matter! ;>)
A few things:
-quite the mess in Alaska. I see new people ahead each poll, and it's surprising a former governor might not make top 4.
-On the AZ-1 item, his name is Jay Feely, with just two e's.
This is Walker's 4th run after one unpopular term and dropping out in mid-October in 2018. I think he's approaching perennial status.
Fixed, thank you!
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c70yk5xjyl1t
French courts went easy on far-right politician Marine Le Pen, taking her prison sentence down from 4 years to 1 year with an ankle monitor. This means she can run for the open presidency next year, but she says she won't.
Ah so it’s not just America got it 😩
Brown sees the wedge issue’s potency in red America.
https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/2074493471247728721
#OHPol: "He's been called the face of data centers in Ohio. Why? Because Jon Husted spent years aggressively recruiting data centers to the state"
Sherrod Brown is up with a new #OHSen ad.
I really think a lot of politicos (not just Dems!) are underrating the importance of data centers are this cycle. People HATE the centers and I could really see it being a tipping-point issue in more competitive elections.
ME-Sen - Shay Stewart-Bouley, who writes the Black Girl in Maine Substack newsletter, is hearing that Platner will drop out, although there's no confirmation from the Platner campaign:
https://www.threads.com/@blackgirlinmaine/post/Dafkt7dDo1U
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/806085-gillum-arrested-on-drug-charges/
Where are they now? - Former Tallahassee, FL mayor Andrew Gillum, who narrowly lost a race for governor as the Democratic nominee in 2018, was arrested on drug charges in Alabama, one of which is a felony and could land him in prison.
it's just weed but nonetheless sad to see his life has gone so sideways.
Not just weed - the article says "dangerous drugs, drug paraphernalia and marijuana"
As to what the other "dangerous drugs" are a mystery. Weed by itself is much less of an issue than other drugs, and medicinal use is legal in Alabama, though I guess his was recreational.
I'm constantly filling out my Gwen Graham apology form
ME-Sen - Horror author Stephen King (not the same person as the former Iowa Congressman/white supremacist) seems to be the only person of note who is wanting Graham Platner to continue his campaign:
https://www.threads.com/@echoesofstreet/post/DaeEwwaDahV
Obviously, I disagree with Stephen King on this issue.
Yeah, King also said the Epstein files didn't exist, so...
Side note: those comments are disgusting and clearly misinformed. One person said he was "the candidate" for over a year. Platner joined the race less than 11 months ago.
Marjorie Taylor Greene and Cenk Uygur. Great company.
Cenk also praised Trump for getting FIFA to rescind the red card suspension of Flo Balogun (only for the USMNT to lose to Belgium anyways).
Saw a funny post this morning: "After the latest allegations, Susan Collins vows to confirm Graham Platner to the Supreme Court."
AL-02: Another internal.
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2074495058544369937
Impact Research poll | 6/24-6/25 LV
US House 2026 | Alabama’s 2nd congressional district
(Trump +14 | 2024)
🟥Rhett Marques 45%
🟦Shomari Figures 44% (incumbent)
(Democratic pollster)
Remarkable that there’s a narrow chance we could actually carry this seat
It is quite likely that Rep Figures does get exactly around 44% in the fall.
MI-Sen/MN-Sen - Suzanne Lambert, the social media influencer who got into a bizarre feud with Haley Stevens's campaign a few days ago, is claiming that Congressional staffers for Stevens and Angie Craig loathe working for them:
https://www.threads.com/@itssuzannelambert/post/DadO-_BkdZa
Unlike, for example, Katie Porter, I don't know of any allegations of a hostile work environment against Stevens or Craig, although I would guess that the two are more ideologically moderate than the median staffer for a Democratic Member of Congress.
MN-Sen - U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost (D-FL) endorses Peggy Flanagan:
https://www.threads.com/@peggyflanagan/post/Dafs871EhT5
I wonder if we'll get a wave of Congressional Progressive Caucus members endorsing Flanagan. Angie Craig has dominated the outside-of-Minnesota Congressional endorsements up to this point, although virtually all of them have been from moderate/establishment factions of the party.
Frost continues to impress me. I was unsure of him at first since he pivoted to the right like his friend Manny Rutinel when he began running, but he's been great so far.