Morning Digest: As Michigan GOP meets to pick Supreme Court nominees, its candidates are almost penniless

A lot of election deniers in the bunch, including one notorious Trump fave

Matt DePerno, a Republican candidate for the Michigan Supreme Court (at right) (credit: Matt DePerno Facebook)

Leading Off

MI Supreme Court

Both Democrats and Republicans will hold conventions on Saturday to choose their nominees for a pair of seats on the Michigan Supreme Court, which Republicans are hoping to win to reclaim a majority. Democrats, by contrast, could expand their 4-3 edge on the bench to a wider 5-2 advantage.

There's little suspense as to which candidates Democrats will choose but a great deal of uncertainty about the direction GOP delegates will take. One of the two seats on the November ballot is held by Republican Justice David Viviano, who is not seeking another eight-year term. In the race to succeed him, Republicans will decide between state Rep. Andrew Fink and Court of Appeals Judge Mark Boonstra, who has Donald Trump's endorsement.

Both Republicans, as the Michigan Advance's Jon King highlighted in March, have a record opposing LGBTQ+ rights. Boonstra authored an opinion in 2021 in which he deliberately misgendered a transgender defendant, which prompted the Supreme Court to make Michigan the first state to require judges to use the preferred pronouns of anyone who appears before the bench. Fink, for his part, unsuccessfully tried to weaken an expanded civil rights law approved by the state's Democratic-run legislature.

The only Democrat seeking this seat is Kimberly Ann Thomas, who leads the Juvenile Justice Clinic at the University of Michigan Law School. Thomas, who launched her campaign before Viviano announced his retirement in March, reported raising more than $800,000 through Aug. 8—10 times what any of the GOP candidates in either race have brought in.

The second seat up this year is held by Democratic Justice Kyra Harris Bolden, whom Gov. Gretchen Whitmire appointed in 2022 after Chief Justice Bridget McCormack stepped down. Bolden, who is campaigning for the final four years of McCormack's term, also faces no intraparty opposition and has hauled in a hefty $1.1 million.

A trio of Republicans, however, still think they can beat her, including one familiar name from the 2022 cycle. That name belongs to Matthew DePerno, an election conspiracy theorist who was on the wrong side of a 53-45 drubbing at the hands of Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel.

A special prosecutor went on to indict DePerno the following year for allegedly participating in a scheme to illegally obtain a voting machine following the 2020 election in order to perform unauthorized "tests." 

A state disciplinary board is also considering whether to suspend DePerno's law license―or even disbar him―over a completely different matter, though it says any action would come after Election Day.

The panel has alleged that DePerno committed professional misconduct while serving as an attorney for former state Rep. Todd Courser, a Republican whose career came to a grim end in 2015 after the public learned that he and colleague Cindy Gamrat devised a fake gay sex scandal to try to hide their real—straight—sex scandal.

DePerno, the board argues, waged frivolous lawsuits on Courser's behalf and falsely accused The Detroit News of publishing deceptively edited audio of his client. It also says that DePerno made evidence-free allegations insinuating that the judge in the case and the paper's attorney had a "personal relationship." DePerno has responded by telling Bridge Michigan he's the target of political "persecution" by the state and dismissed the accusations as "a booger they can't get off their finger."

DePerno has two opponents on Saturday, Branch County Judge Patrick William O'Grady and attorney Alexandria Taylor. O'Grady has insisted that will "remain impartial in all civil and criminal matters," though that didn't stop him from blasting his would-be Democratic colleagues as members of "a far-left court."

Taylor, for her part, was one of the Republicans fined last year for taking part in a "frivolous" lawsuit to stop thousands of legal ballots from being counted in the midterms. Taylor, who previously waged a barely noticed bid for the U.S. Senate this cycle before switching races in April, has echoed DePerno by accusing Nessel of taking part in the "weaponization of our system against political adversaries and opponents."

Though Trump endorsed DePerno both in his failed bid for attorney general and in his unsuccessful quest last year to become chair of the state GOP, he hasn't yet weighed in on Saturday's other contest.

Following their conventions, the parties' picks will compete in statewide elections this November, but the ballot will not display any partisan affiliations. Incumbent judges, however, are identified as "Justice of Supreme Court", which gives them a major edge given the low salience of judicial races. This year, only Bolden will enjoy that advantage.

The eventual Republican nominees will also start the general election with little money to get their message out. Fink had raised the most through early August, but his $80,000 haul was anything but impressive. It was still exponentially more, though, than the $136—no missing zeroes—that DePerno raised.

Governors

NH-Gov, NH-01, NH-02

The University of New Hampshire is out with a new poll of its home state's Sept. 10 primaries for governor and both congressional districts.

In the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, UNH shows former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig with a 39-30 advantage against Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington. The result is similar to the 37-28 lead for Craig that another Granite State school, Saint Anselm College, recently found.

Both institutions also agree that that former Sen. Kelly Ayotte is poised to easily dispatch former state Senate President Chuck Morse for the Republican nomination. UNH places her ahead 65-21, while Saint Anselm showed her winning 59-25.

Meanwhile, in the Republican primary for the 1st Congressional District, UHN has former Executive Councilor Russell Prescott outpacing Manchester Alderman Joe Kelly Levasseur 19-10 in the contest to take on Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, with no one else earning more than 4%. Saint Anselm, by contrast, found Levasseur with a 15-10 advantage against Prescott, though both schools concur that a majority of voters are still undecided. Joe Biden carried this eastern New Hampshire seat 52-46 in 2020.

Turning to the Democratic primary in the 2nd District, UNH shows former Biden administration official Maggie Goodlander with a 34-28 edge over former Executive Councilor Colin Van Ostern, who has retiring Rep. Annie Kuster's endorsement. Saint Anselm, for its part, showed Goodlander up by a larger 41-31 spread.

Finally, on the GOP side in the 2nd, UNH's poll gives businessman Vikram Mansharamani a 21-17 advantage against 2022 primary candidate Lily Tang Williams, while Saint Anselm had the two tied 16-16. Biden scored a 54-45 victory four years ago in the 2nd District, which is based in western and northern New Hampshire.

House

NJ-09

Two Democratic members of the New Jersey state Assembly, Shavonda Sumter and Benjie Wimberly, announced Thursday that they would run to succeed the late Rep. Bill Pascrell in the safely blue 9th District. State law requires local Democratic leaders choose a new nominee by Aug. 29, so anyone interested in replacing Pascrell, who died on Wednesday, has to make their plans clear almost immediately.

And the field may soon expand, as Paterson Mayor André Sayegh told the New Jersey Globe on Thursday that he hoped to decide "within the next few days" whether to seek the party's nomination. The Globe also writes that Bergen County Commissioner Tracy Silna Zur is interested, and the Paterson Press has mentioned several other possible contenders. Things are moving fast, though, and one potential candidate, Assemblyman Gary Schaer, has already said he won't run.

House

The progressive group Future Majority released five House polls on Tuesday, all conducted by the Democratic firm Change Research. We summarize them just below:

• CA-22: David Valadao (R-inc): 44, Rudy Salas (D): 38 

• NE-02: Tony Vargas (D): 48, Don Bacon (R-inc): 43

• NY-17: Mike Lawler (R-inc): 43, Mondaire Jones (D): 38, Anthony Frascone (WFP): 6

• PA-07: Susan Wild (D-inc): 47, Ryan Mackenzie (R): 43

• PA-17: Chris Deluzio (D-inc): 48, Rob Mercuri (R): 40

While the memo says that respondents in these five districts overall favored Kamala Harris 45-43, it did not provide a breakdown of this question by district.

Until now, we'd only seen polls this year for two of these races, Nebraska's 2nd and Pennsylvania's 7th. The GOP firm Remington Research earlier this week released a survey of the former contest giving Bacon a 46-44 edge against Vargas, a state senator whom he narrowly beat in 2022, even as respondents favored Kamala Harris 50-42. Four years ago, Joe Biden carried this constituency in the Omaha area by a 52-46 margin.

Over in Pennsylvania's 7th, meanwhile, a late July Tarrance Group poll paid for by Mackenzie, who is a state representative, and his allies at the NRCC placed Wild ahead 47-45. Biden in 2020 won this district, which is based in the Lehigh Valley, by a tight 50-49 spread.

But for the other three contests, this is our first look at any polling data. In California's 22nd District, Valadao narrowly held off Salas, who was a member of the California Assembly at the time, in their first matchup two years ago. Democrats, however, are hoping that presidential year turnout will make the difference in a Central Valley seat that backed Biden 55-42.

New York's 17th in the Hudson Valley, meanwhile, unexpectedly became a three-way race in June when a little-known candidate named Anthony Frascone defeated Jones, who represented a previous incarnation of this constituency, in the primary for the progressive Working Families Party. (New York allows candidates to claim multiple party nominations, under a system called fusion voting.) 

Biden took the seat by a decisive 54-44 margin in 2020, but the GOP is hoping that the dramatic gains they made in this area during the midterms will prove to be permanent.

Finally, there's the battle between Deluzio and Mercuri, who is a member of the state House, in Pennsylvania's 17th District. Biden took this constituency, which is based in the western and northern Pittsburgh suburbs, 52-46 in 2020.

Ballot Measures

AR Ballot

Arkansas' conservative Supreme Court ruled that a proposed abortion rights amendment had failed to qualify for the general election ballot. The 4-3 decision means that the state's near-total abortion ban will remain in force.

The group behind the amendment, Arkansans for Limited Government, turned in 101,000 signatures last month. It needed officials to both validate around 91,000 of them and to confirm it hit certain thresholds in 50 of Arkansas' 75 counties. Republican Secretary of State John Thurston, though, told organizers that he wouldn't include roughly 14,000 signatures gathered by paid signature collectors because, he said, the group had failed to properly fill out the requisite paperwork.

Supporters of the amendment argued that Thurston's office never informed them of any problems until it was too late to do anything and responded by taking the matter to court. The justices, however, ultimately sided with Thurston.

Organizers denounced the ruling but indicated they would try again to restore abortion rights in a future year. "Despite this infuriating result, our fight isn't over," the group said in a statement. "We can't—and won't—rest until Arkansas women have access to safe, standard health care and the autonomy to make decisions about their bodies free from governmental interference."

FL Ballot

The Florida Supreme Court sided with Republicans on Wednesday when it ruled that an abortion rights amendment would be accompanied on the November ballot by a "fiscal impact statement" that pro-choice groups have denounced as a "dirty trick to mislead voters."

A state panel, which includes representatives from Gov. Ron DeSantis' administration and the Republican-run legislature, approved text last month telling voters that there was "uncertainty about whether the amendment will require the state to subsidize abortions with public funds." The statement also said that, in addition to potentially costly litigation, a win for Amendment 4 could also mean "[a]n increase in abortions [that] may negatively affect the growth of state and local revenues over time."

All constitutional amendments in Florida need to win at least 60% of the vote in order to go into effect. While most poll show Amendment 4, which would undo the state's six-week abortion ban, with majority support, recent surveys disagree whether or not it's clearing the 60% threshold.

Poll Pile

• ME-Sen: University of New Hampshire: Angus King (I-inc): 43, Demi Kouzounas (R): 33, David Costello (D): 9, Jason Cherry (I): 3 (58-41 Harris in two-way, 55-38 Harris with third-party candidates)

• TX-Sen: YouGov for the University of Houston and Texas Southern University: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 47, Colin Allred (D): 45, Ted Brown (L): 3 (50-45 Trump with third-party candidates) (July: 47-44 Cruz)

• NC-Gov: SurveyUSA for High Point University: Josh Stein (D): 48, Mark Robinson (R): 34 (46-45 Harris in two-way) (March: 44-42 Stein)

In Maine, we've seen almost no polling this cycle for the state's U.S. Senate contest, but there's been no indication that King, an incumbent who caucuses with the Democrats, is in any trouble. Races for Congress in Maine are conducted using a ranked-choice ballot, though instant-runoff tabulations weren't necessary in 2018, when King prevailed 54-35.

In Texas, Allred has massively outspent Cruz $22 million to $2 million on advertising, reports AdImpact. Neither candidate has yet reserved much for the remainder of the contest, though this will almost certainly change as Election Day draws closer.

In North Carolina, this is the largest lead that any publicly released poll has shown for Stein, though a recent Siena College survey placed him ahead 49-39. The last poll to give Robinson the edge was a June release from the GOP firm Spry Strategies that showed him up 43-39.

Ad Roundup

• AZ-Sen: Kari Lake (R) and the NRSC - anti-Ruben Gallego (D); Gallego (in Spanish)

• MI-Sen: NRSC - anti-Elissa Slotkin (D)

• NV-Sen: NRSC - anti-Jacky Rosen (D-inc) (here, here, and here)

• WI-Sen: Eric Hovde (R) - anti-Tammy Baldwin (D-inc)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc)

• CO-03: Adam Frisch (D)

• IA-03: Lanon Baccam (D)

• ME-02: Workers for America's Future - pro-Jared Golden (D-inc)

• MI-08: Paul Junge (R) - anti-Kristen McDonald Rivet (D)

• NM-02: American Action Network - anti-Gabe Vasquez (D-inc)