I'm not sure if anyone else remembers the 2006 election when Virgil Goode, who Perriello defeated two years later, easily beat a Democrat named Al Weed. Goode's campaign issued a press release the morning after the election with the headline "Goode Smokes Weed", which got some laughs.
Does anyone have any insight as to why voter turnout was so much higher in Albuquerque than Miami? The cities have similar populations (560,000 vs 450,000) but Albuquerque had more than 3x as many votes (128,381 vs 37,239).
Miami is likely to have more wealthy, young, partying types who don't really care about municipal politics. The city's social and cultural orientation is far more "hip" than ABQ, which is likely to have more retirees.
Both cities have universities, but Miami has way more enrollment, so although Miami is traditionally thought of as a place to retire to, you're probably right.
Really important thing to note about the Miami mayor race; party affiliation was 41.4 D, 33.7 R and 24.9 NPA so a D+7.7 electorate yet she won by 19. Last year it was D+6.4 with more NPAs and Harris won by less than a point. Persuasion played a big part in this shift
"An ‘AstroTurf Recruitment Process’: National Republicans Propped Up Jasmine Crockett to Push Her Into a Senate Run
The NRSC started including Crockett’s name in polling and conducted “a sustained effort” to get Crockett, the party’s preferred candidate to run against, into the race."
The NRSC robocalled high propensity Dems, urged them to call Jasmine Crockett’s office urging her to run for Senate — then connected the caller to the office. The GOP also ran and pushed around polls suggesting she’d win. Crockett then believed the astroturfed hype and launched her bid:"
OK you can forgive dem voters for falling for this but what does it say about Crockett that she thinks her bombthrower partisan message will sell in a T+13 state? No we will not be out voting them, our only prayer is some persuasion.
Are we really buying into the idea that Crockett is so easily duped? Seems sort of in the trumpesqe “low IQ” type insult. Crockett is a savvy politician, ambitious for sure but not an easy mark. I’m not buying this narrative that the reoubs tricked her.
I don’t buy the narrative either although I have no doubt the TX GOP will use Crockett’s rhetoric against her in the primary and general election if she’s the Senate nominee.
According to what she said on MSNow last night, she's banking in much higher turnout from Dems, a la Georgia, and some crossover. The argument vis a vis Ossoff and Warnock works, but they are much different politically than Crockett, imo, and that's the weakness of the argument.
The difference is Trump won TX by 13 points more than he did GA. And she literally said yesterday she needs no Trump voters, so curious what moves she will be making to get that "crossover."
Ossoff and Warnock won through a high % of cross-over votes, and in the run-off, deflated GOP turnout. They didn't win via a large bevy of infrequent/non-voting Dems turning out. That's the fool's gold certain progressives have been touting since 2016.
We found out most low-propensity voters are actually vibe/economy voters. Right now they’d support Democrats with GOP in power, when Biden was president they’d support Republicans.
Policy doesn’t matter, they’ll accept anything the GOP or Democrats propose, as long as they aren’t the current party in power. I don’t know why you’re so stuck with this narrative of a right wing revolution, but it’s factually not true unless you only consider 2024 and no current data or 2025 results.
Really smart people with big egos (and I don't mean that in a mostly critical sense in this case) can be deluded into believing their chances are higher than they really are, and the resulting overconfidence even works sometimes, so I think it's plausible she could have been duped.
It blows my mind that someone involved in politics as a profession can't see the landscape. I think Crockett is great but she has no where to go outside her urban dallas congressional district. As someone from Texas her message just isn't going to sell
If anything, all Jasmine Crockett is going to do is drive more primary voters to support James Talarico.
39% of Texans are Hispanic and a sizable portion of them are likely going to vote in the primary. I don’t think they want to consider a candidate as headline grabbing as Crockett, especially since this does nothing on the bread and butter issues they care about.
1) She got gerrymandered out of her district, yes?
2) A shift of, on average, 13 points to the left so far.
3) Trump won TX by less that 14.
4) Paxton will run well behind a generic republican.
5) Dem voters want fighters overwhelmingly.
6) She feels that energizing new voters to vote is key in TX (she isn't wrong there).
While I tend to think a Dem winning TX is a longshot, in this environment, maybe not. Though I think racism & misogyny are additional obstacles for her.
But we just won Miami big with a female candidate.
That's part of what's so frustrating about this. She could have stayed in the House for several more terms. Instead, she'll be succeeded in Congress by her pastor.
The wide majority of politicians have highly inflated egos (which isn't always a negative) so I don't think it often takes much for folks to convince them to they can win certain longshot races.
Exactly. The ego is nearly mandatory for the job. They need to have an outsized ego to think that they specifically are the right person for such important positions representing such larger numbers of people.
And there are a lot of Beto - Trump voters, especially in those south Texas border counties. Mike Madrid has found Latino voters in south Texas are frustrated with both parties and economically motivated. I think those are clearly the most movable voters both from R to D and from not voting to voting.
Will Talarico’s “it’s the top vs bottom that matters not left vs right” message work better than Crockett’s “Republicans are stealing from you and making life unfair and unaffordable for you”message? I don’t know. In an age of voters craving authenticity, I think Crockett fits. In an age of attention competition, I think Crockett fits.
As long as they keep their focus on Republicans in DC & Austin, I suspect a competitive primary will benefit Democrats.
As far as RSCC getting in involved, they are making a big bet in their ability to evaluate the electorate and at this point, they are positively motivating voters towards Crockett. It’s a weird astroturfing campaign because it only intends to pick a winner, but not to weaken them.
Crockett said that some Texas Hispanics have a slave mentality, some Republicans are predisposed to violence and some Black men are misogynists among other stuff.
Okay. Crockett makes it easy to be a Republican campaign consultant.
All those Beto voters who voted for Trump were certainly willing to overlook an incredible amount of insulting statements that Trump made. It’s possible that they found it refreshing that Trump clearly didn’t care about kissing up to them. It’s up to Crockett to convince those voters that she’ll deliver for them.
And the Texas public will also hear Crockett take swing after swing at Republicans on corruption, hypocrisy, and greed. She’s the equivalent of a MMA fighter. It wouldn’t surprise me if she buries Paxton’s career by weakening him so much he loses the primary. It’s not obvious to me that Texas wouldn’t back a gunslinger even if they don’t always agree.
To me, we should just let Texas primary voters parse the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. Same with in Maine, Michigan, and Iowa.
Well written, but it's very different for people who habitually vote Republican to tolerate or approve of shit-talking by a Republican than by a Democrat.
I don’t expect that Crockett can get habitual Republican voters. Exception being the voters already disgusted by the corruption in DC who might feel that their leaving is validated by Crockett’s moral clarity.
But since 2018 & 2020, Texas has many new Republican voters especially in those border districts. In fact two border districts voted for Trump and for a Democratic House Member. Plus Texas is home to Joe Rogan and the newer Trump voters that he appeals to are drawn to what they feel is authenticity rather than ideology. Neither of these two groups are habitual Republican voters yet. Combine them with real independents and all the off year election fall off Democrats who might be excited to vote for this no-nonsense, wild, and different candidate and I can see a winning coalition.
I am not arguing that Crockett is the best candidate, only against the argument that she obviously can’t win. And that we shouldn’t trust Texas Democrats to select the best candidate.
LOL even. I hope her campaign crashes and burns. She couldn't even criticize corporate spending or support campaign finance reform when asked about it.
“Why propose doing something we can’t currently do” is what you’re arguing.
Think about what you’re saying for a second. How many innovations and changes in American society for the better would never have come because it wasn’t possible at the time. Stop being constrained by current reality and start envisioning a better future.
Who cares if they don’t have the votes right now? Has that ever stopped Republicans before? I implore you and every other Democrat to think bigger and dream higher, anything is possible if we’re willing to fight for it.
Spanberger endorsed Luria then "Virginia Democrats expect it to become bluer in a potential redraw. Navy reservist James Osyf suspended his Democratic campaign Tuesday, saying in a statement he would “await clarity on the outcome of the Commonwealth’s redistricting plan.”"
Elise Stefanik must be fuming when, after having agreed to step down as Trump's nominee for ambassador to the UN, Trump now won't even endorse her over Bruce Blakeman for governor.
Progressives got their best recruit in NY-10. Goldman starts his race as a heavy *underdog* if DSA decides not to run a candidate. Lander is beloved in his district and has broad support across the Democratic Left. I would love to see AIPAC and DMFI blow a couple million at the very least. I hope it goes to double digits. As Jerry Nadler said "Lander will win, I have seen polling."
NEW: Progressives have cleared the field for Lander. Alexa Avilés has decided against getting into NY-10, denounces Goldman, dark money, AIPAC, real estate lobby. “A split field runs too great a risk of allowing him another damaging term,” the dem socialist says.""
Have progressives ever been this organized and focused across the nation since their decline after the New Democrat revolution in the 1990s ? The secret people behind this candidate recruitment and clearing the field efforts across the nation in different primaries (incl the NYC mayoral race), as per reports, are strategists/consultants Morris and Rebecca Katz (no relation).
I’d argue it’s more the principle of representing one’s district effectively. Goldman’s district is much to his left, just as Jamaal Bowman’s was to his right. And just as Latimer better represents his constituents, so too would Lander — Bowman was a mostly reliable vote too.
being a reliable vote on most things from one of the safest districts isn't going to cut it, it's not like he's defending the turf jared golden had to defend
I like Goldman but Lander is my favorite pol in NY. I hope Goldman has a future, the AG's office will probably be open soon, but I'd vote for Lander here.
It comes down to what is and isn't possible out of a district.
Goldman represents a seat that could easily field someone like AOC, if such a candidate were available. On the flipside, someone like Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is solidly to Goldman's right, but represents a district where that's still amazing.
We shouldn't settle for "reliable vote" in a D+32 district where statewide democratic candidates routinely get ~80% of the vote. We can do way better than merely reliable.
What more could you want from a congressperson than a reliable vote? He's one of 435, i don't expect groundbreaking law to come from them especially in a country that hates progressive legislation. Landers voting record will be 95% identical to Goldman's, i just think it's dumb when the act like Goldman has been "damaging" but this is the same crowd that gave us "defund the police".
Goldman's voting record and public statements on that banned topic is completely to the opposite of what his leftie constituents want, in polls.
He refused to support Zohran for his views on the banned topic and relentlessly smeared him, including by saying that he was fearing for his life due to Zohran which was de-facto supporting Cuomo on the eve of the election. This was damaging to his constituents who overwhelmingly voted for Zohran.That's the reason why he is being primaried and everyone is coalescing around Lander.
You have a habit of telling other people that they can't discuss the forbidden topic, and then bringing it up yourself. There's a reason why the topic is forbidden, and that rule applies to you too.
I saw a comment from you a couple days ago that did the exact same thing, and it actually bothered me enough that I almost said something then. Now I see you scolding and condescending to someone else for it. Maybe this is a good reminder for everyone to stop saying using the phrase "the forbidden topic" while still just opening saying whatever the hell they want.
You brought it up on your own, I brought it up because what exactly is damaging to NY-10 that Aviles says is, was repeatedly being asked and bad faith police attacks were being brought up.
I was going to say, who is Jennifer Jenkins? But it appears that she is a former Brevard County School Board member who's running for U.S. Senate. Why would someone with that background have a chance at a Senate race?
We don't have anyone better in FL right now? I'll admit though I have a soft spot for her since I grew up there and know how far right the activists in that county can be and all the shit she has had to endure.
Undeniably so. The GOP retained the HOD in VA, won Miami Mayor, and won the Supreme Court race in PA in 2017. Sherrill won by more than Murphy, and he was coming off of an unpopular Christie tailwind with the Vaad endorsement. And we didn’t even contest a Republican-held Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.
The only thing that might err in 2017’s favor was the Alabama Senate race, but that was obviously so Roy Moore-specific to be a useful barometer.
Independent poll of Maine has Mills leading Platner by 10. Both tied with Collins in low 40s, but I imagine most the undecideds disapprove of both Collins and Trump based on their -17 and -19 figures, respectively. PanAtlantic was the only poll that previously had Collins at positive approval this year at +4 I believe.
Yeah I think Collins popularity is gone. if Collins wins it's going to be through negative attacks on her opponents. Mills on age + tagging all national problems to her being governor and Platner for all of the controversies they can find.
New Maine Senate poll has Mills and Collins tied, Platner leading Collins by one, and Mills leading Platner by 10 in the primary. Mills' -8 favorability here is a big red flag to me. Really not sure why we always struggle here so much. It'll probably be enough in 2026 but sheesh.
Can’t wait to see Darrell Issa face an even more fiercely competitive race in CA-48 than back in 2016 when in CA-49 he had Doug Applegate as his opponent.
In the legislature, Sen. Kandie Smith and Reps. Dante Pittman and Gloristine Brown represent territory in the new district. Sen. Smith is ideal - she has been in the legislature for about 7 years and was mayor and councilwoman in Greenville beforehand. Brown now holds Smith's seat in the House, while Pittman holds a seat in Wilson.
I think Boebert and open seats made the other two seats seem more competitive than they normally would be, but we are contesting a few other seats with similar margins. And if we're not going to be able to redistrict CO, we need to make a hard play for these other two seats.
The 3rd was just within 10 points, and Hurd may be vulnerable to a far-right primary challenge. The 5th was also just within 10 points, and I wouldn't attribute Boebert's underperformance to running in an open seat, but rather her style being electorally noxious (see her near-loss in 2022). I feel CO 3/4/5 are all Likely R, but the Dems should find strong candidates.
Give it time. We’re still almost 11 months away from the Midterm Elections – and I am sure the DCCC (and other organizations) will expand the map where they are investing.
The 5th is tricky because of the independent who filed to run. Obviously his vote share will dwindle as the election cycle goes forward as all I candidates do in a D v R v I race, but Republicans won’t need a majority to win the district in 2026 and there’s still a very high floor for them even with the changes in Colorado Springs. So if it was a 1 v 1 I’d think they’d take the plunge, but a 3 way race is far more unpredictable and harder to win for us.
I'm not sure if anyone else remembers the 2006 election when Virgil Goode, who Perriello defeated two years later, easily beat a Democrat named Al Weed. Goode's campaign issued a press release the morning after the election with the headline "Goode Smokes Weed", which got some laughs.
Panic! at Tedisco
Let’s Go Ralph!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Al Weed was also the Democratic nominee in 2004, when Goode defeated him by a larger margin than in 2006. I wonder if he made the same statement then.
Al Weed or All Weed?
Ron Swanson said in that one episode of Parks & Recreation, “Give me all the bacon and eggs you have.”
Perhaps, “Give me All the Weed you have?”
I was hoping for "Carnahan Smokes Blunt" to be a headline in 2010.
Sadly, that turned out not to be the case.
Does anyone have any insight as to why voter turnout was so much higher in Albuquerque than Miami? The cities have similar populations (560,000 vs 450,000) but Albuquerque had more than 3x as many votes (128,381 vs 37,239).
560 is not similar to 450. :)
Different age/citizenship distribution as well. The former has over 380k registered voters, the latter around 175k.
The turnout rates were 33% vs 21%. Nothing out of bounds for municipal races.
33% is still higher than 21%. What explains the difference?
Miami is likely to have more wealthy, young, partying types who don't really care about municipal politics. The city's social and cultural orientation is far more "hip" than ABQ, which is likely to have more retirees.
Both cities have universities, but Miami has way more enrollment, so although Miami is traditionally thought of as a place to retire to, you're probably right.
The hive mind doesn’t miss a vote
*Pluribus reference
Really important thing to note about the Miami mayor race; party affiliation was 41.4 D, 33.7 R and 24.9 NPA so a D+7.7 electorate yet she won by 19. Last year it was D+6.4 with more NPAs and Harris won by less than a point. Persuasion played a big part in this shift
"An ‘AstroTurf Recruitment Process’: National Republicans Propped Up Jasmine Crockett to Push Her Into a Senate Run
The NRSC started including Crockett’s name in polling and conducted “a sustained effort” to get Crockett, the party’s preferred candidate to run against, into the race."
https://www.notus.org/senate/jasmine-crockett-nrsc-texas-senate
"Ryan Grim
@ryangrim
The NRSC robocalled high propensity Dems, urged them to call Jasmine Crockett’s office urging her to run for Senate — then connected the caller to the office. The GOP also ran and pushed around polls suggesting she’d win. Crockett then believed the astroturfed hype and launched her bid:"
https://x.com/ryangrim/status/1998607386022494425
If true, the actual primary vote won’t be as favorable for her.
OK you can forgive dem voters for falling for this but what does it say about Crockett that she thinks her bombthrower partisan message will sell in a T+13 state? No we will not be out voting them, our only prayer is some persuasion.
She's a narcissist
Are we really buying into the idea that Crockett is so easily duped? Seems sort of in the trumpesqe “low IQ” type insult. Crockett is a savvy politician, ambitious for sure but not an easy mark. I’m not buying this narrative that the reoubs tricked her.
I don’t buy the narrative either although I have no doubt the TX GOP will use Crockett’s rhetoric against her in the primary and general election if she’s the Senate nominee.
What legitimate polling could she possibly see that shows she has a path to victory
Fake polling probably.
According to what she said on MSNow last night, she's banking in much higher turnout from Dems, a la Georgia, and some crossover. The argument vis a vis Ossoff and Warnock works, but they are much different politically than Crockett, imo, and that's the weakness of the argument.
How awesome would it be if she did win though?
The difference is Trump won TX by 13 points more than he did GA. And she literally said yesterday she needs no Trump voters, so curious what moves she will be making to get that "crossover."
Ossoff and Warnock won through a high % of cross-over votes, and in the run-off, deflated GOP turnout. They didn't win via a large bevy of infrequent/non-voting Dems turning out. That's the fool's gold certain progressives have been touting since 2016.
Yeah it seems some people in the party will just never learn the lesson here lol.
Yep. We found out most low-propensity voters are actually right-wing populists, not would-be Democrats waiting to get their wings.
No.
We found out most low-propensity voters are actually vibe/economy voters. Right now they’d support Democrats with GOP in power, when Biden was president they’d support Republicans.
Policy doesn’t matter, they’ll accept anything the GOP or Democrats propose, as long as they aren’t the current party in power. I don’t know why you’re so stuck with this narrative of a right wing revolution, but it’s factually not true unless you only consider 2024 and no current data or 2025 results.
Really smart people with big egos (and I don't mean that in a mostly critical sense in this case) can be deluded into believing their chances are higher than they really are, and the resulting overconfidence even works sometimes, so I think it's plausible she could have been duped.
It blows my mind that someone involved in politics as a profession can't see the landscape. I think Crockett is great but she has no where to go outside her urban dallas congressional district. As someone from Texas her message just isn't going to sell
I agree 100%.
If anything, all Jasmine Crockett is going to do is drive more primary voters to support James Talarico.
39% of Texans are Hispanic and a sizable portion of them are likely going to vote in the primary. I don’t think they want to consider a candidate as headline grabbing as Crockett, especially since this does nothing on the bread and butter issues they care about.
https://data.census.gov/all?g=040XX00US48
The landscape is that:
1) She got gerrymandered out of her district, yes?
2) A shift of, on average, 13 points to the left so far.
3) Trump won TX by less that 14.
4) Paxton will run well behind a generic republican.
5) Dem voters want fighters overwhelmingly.
6) She feels that energizing new voters to vote is key in TX (she isn't wrong there).
While I tend to think a Dem winning TX is a longshot, in this environment, maybe not. Though I think racism & misogyny are additional obstacles for her.
But we just won Miami big with a female candidate.
No she was not gerrymandered out of her district
That's part of what's so frustrating about this. She could have stayed in the House for several more terms. Instead, she'll be succeeded in Congress by her pastor.
She technically was, as she lives just outside of the new 30th... but no one would fault her for running there, so the point stands
The wide majority of politicians have highly inflated egos (which isn't always a negative) so I don't think it often takes much for folks to convince them to they can win certain longshot races.
Exactly. The ego is nearly mandatory for the job. They need to have an outsized ego to think that they specifically are the right person for such important positions representing such larger numbers of people.
I think Crockett ran her own polling, she did not rely on the GOP stuff.
That she shared with Allred & Talarico.
If I lived in Texas, I would vote for Talarico.
And there are a lot of Beto - Trump voters, especially in those south Texas border counties. Mike Madrid has found Latino voters in south Texas are frustrated with both parties and economically motivated. I think those are clearly the most movable voters both from R to D and from not voting to voting.
Will Talarico’s “it’s the top vs bottom that matters not left vs right” message work better than Crockett’s “Republicans are stealing from you and making life unfair and unaffordable for you”message? I don’t know. In an age of voters craving authenticity, I think Crockett fits. In an age of attention competition, I think Crockett fits.
As long as they keep their focus on Republicans in DC & Austin, I suspect a competitive primary will benefit Democrats.
As far as RSCC getting in involved, they are making a big bet in their ability to evaluate the electorate and at this point, they are positively motivating voters towards Crockett. It’s a weird astroturfing campaign because it only intends to pick a winner, but not to weaken them.
Crockett said that some Texas Hispanics have a slave mentality, some Republicans are predisposed to violence and some Black men are misogynists among other stuff.
Okay. Crockett makes it easy to be a Republican campaign consultant.
All those Beto voters who voted for Trump were certainly willing to overlook an incredible amount of insulting statements that Trump made. It’s possible that they found it refreshing that Trump clearly didn’t care about kissing up to them. It’s up to Crockett to convince those voters that she’ll deliver for them.
And the Texas public will also hear Crockett take swing after swing at Republicans on corruption, hypocrisy, and greed. She’s the equivalent of a MMA fighter. It wouldn’t surprise me if she buries Paxton’s career by weakening him so much he loses the primary. It’s not obvious to me that Texas wouldn’t back a gunslinger even if they don’t always agree.
To me, we should just let Texas primary voters parse the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates. Same with in Maine, Michigan, and Iowa.
Well written, but it's very different for people who habitually vote Republican to tolerate or approve of shit-talking by a Republican than by a Democrat.
So true.
I don’t expect that Crockett can get habitual Republican voters. Exception being the voters already disgusted by the corruption in DC who might feel that their leaving is validated by Crockett’s moral clarity.
But since 2018 & 2020, Texas has many new Republican voters especially in those border districts. In fact two border districts voted for Trump and for a Democratic House Member. Plus Texas is home to Joe Rogan and the newer Trump voters that he appeals to are drawn to what they feel is authenticity rather than ideology. Neither of these two groups are habitual Republican voters yet. Combine them with real independents and all the off year election fall off Democrats who might be excited to vote for this no-nonsense, wild, and different candidate and I can see a winning coalition.
I am not arguing that Crockett is the best candidate, only against the argument that she obviously can’t win. And that we shouldn’t trust Texas Democrats to select the best candidate.
We shouldn't always trust that primary voters will choose the right candidate. There are so many examples of them making serious mistakes.
"Annie Karni
@anniekarni
News: Haley Stevens goes rogue, moves to impeach RFK for undercutting public health.
It’s a move not blessed by leadership and some see it as a sign of her struggling to gain traction in a heated Senate primary"
https://x.com/anniekarni/status/1998731488099987510
LOL even. I hope her campaign crashes and burns. She couldn't even criticize corporate spending or support campaign finance reform when asked about it.
Not sure how that's going rogue. It's something that every Democrat in Congress should be supporting.
RFK Jr. cannot be impeached as long as the GOP has a majority in the House. It's going to distract from the affordability message and she knows it.
We can't walk and chew gum at the same time?
Why do something useless that energizes MAHA voters and will not pass?
He should be impeached, the idea that we can’t do both or that this is simply to benefit her campaign is pretty cynical.
Fuck the MAHA folks, RFK has gone far beyond what I think most voters expected.
How will you get the votes to impeach him until 2026?
If that's true, it's only because voters had absolutely no clue what RFK has spent the last decade obsessing about.
“Why propose doing something we can’t currently do” is what you’re arguing.
Think about what you’re saying for a second. How many innovations and changes in American society for the better would never have come because it wasn’t possible at the time. Stop being constrained by current reality and start envisioning a better future.
Who cares if they don’t have the votes right now? Has that ever stopped Republicans before? I implore you and every other Democrat to think bigger and dream higher, anything is possible if we’re willing to fight for it.
Why be upset about this, sounds like a great idea
I mean, yeah, it's likely that attention is a motivating factor here on Stevens's part, but it's also a perfectly fine thing to do.
I mean politicians are gonna pull this stuff, you can't tell me purposefully getting arrested by ICE isn't also a campaign tactic.
The information on Osyf is not exactly correct.
Spanberger endorsed Luria then "Virginia Democrats expect it to become bluer in a potential redraw. Navy reservist James Osyf suspended his Democratic campaign Tuesday, saying in a statement he would “await clarity on the outcome of the Commonwealth’s redistricting plan.”"
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/12/10/congress/spanberger-endorses-luria-00683599
Elise Stefanik must be fuming when, after having agreed to step down as Trump's nominee for ambassador to the UN, Trump now won't even endorse her over Bruce Blakeman for governor.
Its hilarious, you love to see it.
What does Stefanik expect Trump to do at this point? Endorse her in the gubernatorial race because she couldn’t be counted on staying in the House?
I think the issue is one would expect him to endorse her for all the jerking around he did with her U.N nomination.
True but Stefanik forgot that Trump wants to stay in power so ensuring she remained in the House was his order.
If she’s going against Trump’s orders by running for Governor of NY, she reaped what she sowed with him.
Progressives got their best recruit in NY-10. Goldman starts his race as a heavy *underdog* if DSA decides not to run a candidate. Lander is beloved in his district and has broad support across the Democratic Left. I would love to see AIPAC and DMFI blow a couple million at the very least. I hope it goes to double digits. As Jerry Nadler said "Lander will win, I have seen polling."
I looked up DMFI. Most of you probably recognized the initials of Democratic Majority for Israel, but if you didn't, now you do. :-)
"Emily Ngo
@emilyngo
32m
NEW: Progressives have cleared the field for Lander. Alexa Avilés has decided against getting into NY-10, denounces Goldman, dark money, AIPAC, real estate lobby. “A split field runs too great a risk of allowing him another damaging term,” the dem socialist says.""
https://x.com/emilyngo/status/1998786201814446496
Have progressives ever been this organized and focused across the nation since their decline after the New Democrat revolution in the 1990s ? The secret people behind this candidate recruitment and clearing the field efforts across the nation in different primaries (incl the NYC mayoral race), as per reports, are strategists/consultants Morris and Rebecca Katz (no relation).
Damn you think these people are talking about republicans. Goldman has been a reliable vote in the house to call him "damaging" is stupid.
I’d argue it’s more the principle of representing one’s district effectively. Goldman’s district is much to his left, just as Jamaal Bowman’s was to his right. And just as Latimer better represents his constituents, so too would Lander — Bowman was a mostly reliable vote too.
Bowman was reliably a buffoon.
I was talking strictly voting record, I'm aware of his antics.
being a reliable vote on most things from one of the safest districts isn't going to cut it, it's not like he's defending the turf jared golden had to defend
It's really simple: If you're a leftist, a split of leftists is damaging to your point of view.
Seriously. Lander would probably be an upgrade but Goldman isn’t Ed Case or something
I like Goldman but Lander is my favorite pol in NY. I hope Goldman has a future, the AG's office will probably be open soon, but I'd vote for Lander here.
He could be a good AG, but is Tish James term-limited?
Nope, no limits.
I'd be happy for her to serve another term if she wants to.
Goldman has always had his eyes on a statewide prize.
I do agree with you on this.
It comes down to what is and isn't possible out of a district.
Goldman represents a seat that could easily field someone like AOC, if such a candidate were available. On the flipside, someone like Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is solidly to Goldman's right, but represents a district where that's still amazing.
We shouldn't settle for "reliable vote" in a D+32 district where statewide democratic candidates routinely get ~80% of the vote. We can do way better than merely reliable.
What more could you want from a congressperson than a reliable vote? He's one of 435, i don't expect groundbreaking law to come from them especially in a country that hates progressive legislation. Landers voting record will be 95% identical to Goldman's, i just think it's dumb when the act like Goldman has been "damaging" but this is the same crowd that gave us "defund the police".
Goldman has also made votes that I and other members of the left were not in favor of. Such as his vote to condemn the ICC.
Also, not all of the left support “defund the police”. If that was not your implication I apologize, that was how I interpreted it.
Goldman's voting record and public statements on that banned topic is completely to the opposite of what his leftie constituents want, in polls.
He refused to support Zohran for his views on the banned topic and relentlessly smeared him, including by saying that he was fearing for his life due to Zohran which was de-facto supporting Cuomo on the eve of the election. This was damaging to his constituents who overwhelmingly voted for Zohran.That's the reason why he is being primaried and everyone is coalescing around Lander.
This is a gratuitous and unnecessary comment.
You have a habit of telling other people that they can't discuss the forbidden topic, and then bringing it up yourself. There's a reason why the topic is forbidden, and that rule applies to you too.
I saw a comment from you a couple days ago that did the exact same thing, and it actually bothered me enough that I almost said something then. Now I see you scolding and condescending to someone else for it. Maybe this is a good reminder for everyone to stop saying using the phrase "the forbidden topic" while still just opening saying whatever the hell they want.
You brought it up on your own, I brought it up because what exactly is damaging to NY-10 that Aviles says is, was repeatedly being asked and bad faith police attacks were being brought up.
This primary will be 95% about the forbidden issue.
Doubt it, Lander's views on the issue are relatively uncontroversial
No, we haven't.
I see a lot of nasty comments in denial on Jennifer Jenkins's Xitter page about Eileen Higgins winning the Miami mayoral race.
GOP and the bots are hitting the copium HARD.
I was going to say, who is Jennifer Jenkins? But it appears that she is a former Brevard County School Board member who's running for U.S. Senate. Why would someone with that background have a chance at a Senate race?
My guess is that she can use her background as a sharp contrast to RDS' disastrous policies and how Moody is a rubber stamp for both him and TACO.
We don't have anyone better in FL right now? I'll admit though I have a soft spot for her since I grew up there and know how far right the activists in that county can be and all the shit she has had to endure.
Maybe she'll end up being next year's Kay Hagan, although she was a state legislator. I hope Jenkins is a good campaigner!
Why has Stratton not gotten any traction in IL-sen?
She probably doesn't have any name recognition. Lt. govs in Illinios are picked by the governor candidate, she's never run statewide on her own.
Money. Raja has a lot and is spending it.
Also, she doesn't stand for anything in particular. She's not identified with any issue. Candidates like that get beaten by candidates with $.
2025 Elections Were Better Than 2017 For Democrats with a much smaller playing field.
Taniel
@Taniel
The 2025 elections are near-over, as of yesterday. So I set out to do my annual review of legislative races.
And it brought into view just how bad the year was for the GOP, in one stat:
Democrats flipped 21% of all GOP-held seats at play.
My latest: https://boltsmag.org/legislative-elections-results-2025/
Undeniably so. The GOP retained the HOD in VA, won Miami Mayor, and won the Supreme Court race in PA in 2017. Sherrill won by more than Murphy, and he was coming off of an unpopular Christie tailwind with the Vaad endorsement. And we didn’t even contest a Republican-held Wisconsin Supreme Court seat.
The only thing that might err in 2017’s favor was the Alabama Senate race, but that was obviously so Roy Moore-specific to be a useful barometer.
Independent poll of Maine has Mills leading Platner by 10. Both tied with Collins in low 40s, but I imagine most the undecideds disapprove of both Collins and Trump based on their -17 and -19 figures, respectively. PanAtlantic was the only poll that previously had Collins at positive approval this year at +4 I believe.
https://www.newscentermaine.com/article/news/politics/maine-politics/mills-platner-maine-us-senate-race-susan-collins-pan-atlantic-research-poll/97-78602517-3f27-4144-bf7b-894bb2366fc5
Yeah I think Collins popularity is gone. if Collins wins it's going to be through negative attacks on her opponents. Mills on age + tagging all national problems to her being governor and Platner for all of the controversies they can find.
The difference is that "you're old" and "you're establishment" are just as applicable to Collins as Mills, while Platner is... unique
New Maine Senate poll has Mills and Collins tied, Platner leading Collins by one, and Mills leading Platner by 10 in the primary. Mills' -8 favorability here is a big red flag to me. Really not sure why we always struggle here so much. It'll probably be enough in 2026 but sheesh.
https://hs-21701012.f.hubspotstarter.net/hubfs/21701012/67th%20Omnibus%20Poll%20December%202025.pdf?utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_qWyGL4keanJ5LSdiKL6c5WZV-1bzCKylYwKxtbhhKyeZjebUL8XLBb0fyCN-GbIYvmJH9vOeAAN3J59WkcFJnVG8viQ&_hsmi=393840029&utm_content=393840029&utm_source=hs_email
Young dems overwhelmingly support Platner, older dems support Mills. That’s how I thought it would shake out, but interesting to see data on it.
So basically tattoo connoisseurs vs people not keen on tattoos.
I wonder how much of Mills’s disapproval is coming from Platner primary supporters. Nothing else explains her sharp drop in approval.
Wishing Chuck Schumer and the DSCC would get behind Crockett so she instantly becomes toxic in the primary... lol
I realize you're making a sarcastic joke, but Schumer's picks have hardly been radioactive all the time.
DCCC added 5 districts to their target list as the House battlefield grows:
https://x.com/jamesd0wns/status/1998727678203936847
James Downs
@jamesd0wns
The DCCC this morning announced an expansion of its offensive priorities, adding CA-48, FL-15, NC-03, NC-11, and TX-35.
Can’t wait to see Darrell Issa face an even more fiercely competitive race in CA-48 than back in 2016 when in CA-49 he had Doug Applegate as his opponent.
I’m glad they’re adding Nc-3 to the list but I’m wondering who they could recruit?
In the legislature, Sen. Kandie Smith and Reps. Dante Pittman and Gloristine Brown represent territory in the new district. Sen. Smith is ideal - she has been in the legislature for about 7 years and was mayor and councilwoman in Greenville beforehand. Brown now holds Smith's seat in the House, while Pittman holds a seat in Wilson.
Still not a single other seat in Colorado besides CO-08. Seriously?
I think Boebert and open seats made the other two seats seem more competitive than they normally would be, but we are contesting a few other seats with similar margins. And if we're not going to be able to redistrict CO, we need to make a hard play for these other two seats.
The 3rd was just within 10 points, and Hurd may be vulnerable to a far-right primary challenge. The 5th was also just within 10 points, and I wouldn't attribute Boebert's underperformance to running in an open seat, but rather her style being electorally noxious (see her near-loss in 2022). I feel CO 3/4/5 are all Likely R, but the Dems should find strong candidates.
Give it time. We’re still almost 11 months away from the Midterm Elections – and I am sure the DCCC (and other organizations) will expand the map where they are investing.
The 5th is tricky because of the independent who filed to run. Obviously his vote share will dwindle as the election cycle goes forward as all I candidates do in a D v R v I race, but Republicans won’t need a majority to win the district in 2026 and there’s still a very high floor for them even with the changes in Colorado Springs. So if it was a 1 v 1 I’d think they’d take the plunge, but a 3 way race is far more unpredictable and harder to win for us.
Is there a candidate in TX-35?
Johnny Garcia, a deputy sheriff of Bexar County