I seem to remember Trump's approval rating being in the low-40s at the time of the 2018 midterms. Trump's approval is at least a few points lower than that now.
I don't think the 2018 data will accurately reflect how things shake out in 2026. For one thing, the Jacksonville area has moved to the left compared to the state overall, and that could put FL-04 in play. I'm also not sold on all 3 Hispanic Southeast Florida districts flipping.
I despise Menin but I at least am happy she occasionally will work with Mamdani. (Still suspicious donors/local party leaders are grooming her to be a Mamdani challenger in 2029.)
I'd be fine with Stevens, but not El-Sayed. That said, I suspect either one of them would win the GE, although El-Sayed would likely make it much closer than it should be. Either Stevens or McMorrow should cruise to victory in the GE in this environment.
Based on the trendlines, their prior poll was very friendly to Stevens. They might be right, they might be wrong, we won't know until the election is over. But right now, their methodology is one that favors Stevens relative to what other pollsters are doing.
In that context, her losing 9 points of support is the most interesting detail. There's one other return poll I found, which also showed Stevens losing support since the start of the year, but only 4 points instead of 9 (Emerson Jan -> April).
Glengariff is a gop hack - Michigan has some of the worst pollsters in the business. Glengariff paid by the Detroit Chamber is basically nonsense. Steve Mitchell must have been on vacation as he’s the only bigger hack they could have hired.
The only Michigan pollster to put any stock in is EPIC-MRA and I still take their numbers with a grain of salt. But Bernie Porn at epic still has the best name in the business.
The trendlines are interesting. Stevens leading (not what other polls have shown), but with a significant drop in support that is not fully accounted for. The MoE must be doing a lot of work here.
This might be one of those things where typical Dem primary voters like all three of them and people like us get hung up on the narcissism of small differences.
I wouldn't say the differences between them are small, but I agree that primary voters probably have at least vaguely positive opinions of all three.
It's part of what makes primaries harder to poll: voters are more fluid than in a general election. In a primary most voters will like most, if not all, of their options available to them. They're making their decision on a blend of personal preferences and strategic expectations. It's why Becerra was able to rise in the polls so suddenly.
I cant think of a single proposed or anticipated thing or event coming down the pike for the rest of this year, that has even a prayer of turning public sentiment around for them. There's no big bills planned, no single issue campaigns to focus on, no one new with charisma to get behind, no singular bad guys like Bin Laden to capture. Just a vague hope that the economy improves after they've inflicted a thousand cuts. What, they'll get 2-3 points from a midterm convention maybe?
Really the only thing preventing a complete collapse is the markets being at or near all time highs propped up by AI and data center capex, with the positive effect that has on accounts and valuations. Any 15-20% downturn, and they are utterly doomed. And there are plenty of icebergs in the water which could cause a 15% correction this year, and almost nothing that would create another cycle of upside that would be felt by Nov.
That NYT focus group article that dropped today (while many levels of infuriating on a micro level) is bad news for Republicans because they need these voters to show up this November. Instead they'll emulate JD Vance and sit on the couch.
The 2nd day up to now has been near parity, with Rs ahead by 300 ballots or so.
Over all, plus VBM, D ballots are leading by about 5000. About 8pt.
Dem turnout so far has a higher percentage of Black voters, almost 70%. And heavier from the Black majority exurbs south of i285 perimeter and the secondary cities.
I remember some polling showing Bottoms more popular with Dem primary voters out of the urban core, than within it. Probably some truth in that.
I wonder if the challengers to the two SCOGA justices are gaining any traction with Dem GA voters. I think if the ballot showed the partisan lean of the justices, it would.
Judicial races are officially non-partisan. They would only show which seat (to succeed judge AAA), candidates’ names, and who is the incumbent (like AAA running as incumbent to succeed the seat of AAA). No party designation.
For the handful of voters choosing neither D nor R ballots, only the judicial and referendum questions will be on their ballot.
It looks like Dems are ahead by over 1000 on the day and over 6500 total across the two days? Obviously still early, but a good sign. Dem vote centers open later in early voting typically.
Yesterday’s IPEV ahead by around 6300. Also ahead several hundred in VBM returned (there are 28k or so outstanding VBM ballots, about 4k more D than R requested)
So overall in the cast votes, D ballots ahead by around 7000, 11pt or so.
"Take solace it's only April" is certainly a hopeful way to go about things. Historically the party in the white house gets less and less popular as the election draws closer.
It takes a major event, like Dobbs, to shake that up. And they're too high on their own supply to realize that what they think will make them more popular actually accomplishes the exact opposite, like attacking Iran.
As long as I have been a long-time California native and resident, I’ve never seen as many debates being held in the gubernatorial race as in this one.
I'm surprised MeidasTouch or Pod Save America (who are all based in Los Angeles) haven't stepped in to host a debate. At least they would stream it live on YouTube instead of broadcast it on cable news.
Reminds me of the debate introduction from Veep before Jonah Ryan talks about African foreign policy: "featuring candidates polling between 5% and not statistically significant".
Georgia has three state supreme court races on its ballot. Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan are running for two of them! Great candidates!
Unfortunately, Justice Ben Land, who was appointed by Governor Kemp, did not draw a challenger. That means Justice Land, who helped ensure that Georgia could keep its near-absolute abortion ban on the books, will serve at least one more term!
Anyone know why Democrats failed to find a challenger against Justice Land?
It seems like Rankin and Jordan jumped in at the last minute. I'm sure that if these two women unseat the incumbents, there will be a challenger for all three seats up in May 2028 (right before the presidential election).
It's possible that the weak performance in 2024, where a seemingly strong candidate did well in rural areas and completely tanked in cities, may have discouraged many from running.
The House Majority PAC ad reservations mostly point to IA-01 and IA-03, but they've reserved a lot of ad space in the Cedar Rapids market, which covers most of IA-02. I keep telling people to watch IA-02. Those northeast Iowa counties did swing horrifically to Trump, but the GOP nominee (Joe Mitchell) doesn't look like a great fit for the district to me. He only just moved to northeast Iowa in September 2025 after growing up in the southeast part of the state (IA-01) and spending the last several years in Des Moines (IA-03).
So do Cornyn and Paxton. In fact, that's the point...Abbott is doing better than others with Rs after their name.
Edit: really I think Abbott is performing normally, and Cornyn and Paxton are underperforming because of their own unpopularity and because of Trump's.
I'd agree with your edit. Republicans' unpopularity is magnified at the federal level, so not too surprising that the electoral impact is set to be largest with elections for federal offices. Cornyn and Paxton are tied to Trump in a way that Abbott is not.
Plus: realignments tend to start with federal elections first, and filter down to local elections later. This lines up with historical patterns.
I agree with everything you said. I'd like to add that voters typically consolidate once the primary is over. I'd expect the R number to be higher in the general than in pre-runoff head to heads.
Yes, but Cornyn and Paxton are likely to face a much stronger opponent in November than Abbott will. Trump was a shit-hole candidate in 2016 but his opponent proved to be weaker than everyone thought she would be. These polls measure a candidates strength and appeal in relation to their (likely) opponent and, like others here have said, the senate candidates are tied too much to trump and it is hurting them in polling v. Talarico who apparently has pretty broad support.
Should be noted that Greg Abbott led Beto O’Rourke by a wider margin in multiple polls up until this point.
O’Rourke did start to cut Abbott’s margin in the polls where he was down anywhere between 5-8%. However, this happened in September 2022, which was too little, too late.
Hinojosa seems to be doing better than O’Rourke polling wise but still has six months to tighten things more.
I think Hinojosa could come really close, but I have my doubts she can win, even if I’m pretty high on Talarico’s chances in the Senate race. I do think the open AG race could be winnable, and maybe a few others with weak Republican incumbents, like the unusually powerful LG office. I hope Democrats adequately fund and focus on those races in case Talarico does win big enough to pull one or more others statewide Democratic officers across with him.
Abbott’s an extremely tough incumbent to unseat but considering his 2022 re-election margin of victory dropped compared to his past elections, if he wins re-election by an even smaller margin, this could bode well for future gains for TX Democrats.
Also, on a side note, for what it’s worth it should be noted that Abbott’s wife is Hispanic.
I was surprised by that too. But he has a ton of yard signs out, mainly in the upstate where he's from, while I've seen none for others. Wilson and Evette are on TV after 10 pm which is when I am normally on and not streaming. Kimbrell's local district is in the epicenter of the SC measles outbreak (biggest in the nation...woo hoo!) and he's had to backtrack on his anti-vax stances as day cares and schools in the area got shut down or quarantined. Nancy Mace is Macing. Getting some free pub from public statements but not much else I've seen.
I wish we had a more notable Dem in this race. Wilson, if he wins, has many vulnerabilities with scandals that he hasn't prosecuted bc he protects good old boys.
Cunningham? God no. The frat bro persona works for the GOP here, but not the Dems. The problem is we have no bench and Clyburn staying put in SC06 forever means we don't even have anyone on the federal level to move up. I like Jermaine Johnson, but 4 years in the state house coming off of a career as a pro hoops player in Europe is a thin resume. He's my choice though. McLeod is a bozo, but he's a connected Goodoleboy. Yuck. Billy Webster got in late, former Clinter admin scheduler and Payday Loan company owner. Meh.
Russell Ott or Justin Bamberg have larger profiles and would have been good. Heck even Bob Inglis could switch parties since he's been at odds with the Rs for a long time.
PA-Sen 2028 - Looks like this legal filing by a group of defendants including the National Park Service in the Trump ballroom case was likely written by Trump himself and attempts to use John Fetterman's definition of "Trump Derangement Syndrome" without actually defining it:
I don't think this could easily be worked into a TV ad against Fetterman in a Democratic primary if Fetterman runs for re-election, but it would be hilarious if someone actually tried that.
On a slightly related note, there were literal fucking Redcoats marching on White House grounds moments ago.
I seem to remember Trump's approval rating being in the low-40s at the time of the 2018 midterms. Trump's approval is at least a few points lower than that now.
He was still well above water on his handling of the economy, which makes 2018 all the more impressive IMO.
I don't think the 2018 data will accurately reflect how things shake out in 2026. For one thing, the Jacksonville area has moved to the left compared to the state overall, and that could put FL-04 in play. I'm also not sold on all 3 Hispanic Southeast Florida districts flipping.
Worth noting that some of this polling happened during the assassination attempt. So, it does not appear to have made much of a difference.
So I haven't followed this one closely - what is the big difference between the two if any?
I'd absolutely take a moderate like Mead or even Cheney in Wyoming over a far right figure like Hageman.
I despise Menin but I at least am happy she occasionally will work with Mamdani. (Still suspicious donors/local party leaders are grooming her to be a Mamdani challenger in 2029.)
Why would she be a Mamdani challenger? From what I have read she seems like a progressive.
Is the pollster legit? This makes me worried.
Well there’s your answer. No wonder Stevens is favored
Stevens is favored in these polls, but there has been a definite drop for her as her opponents catch up and build their vote share
https://x.com/umichvoter/status/2049155315912814829
May 2025
Registered voters
Stevens 34% / El-Sayed 22% / McMorrow 14%
Definite voters
Stevens 34% / El-Sayed 24% / McMorrow 12%
---
April 2026
Likely voters
Stevens 25% / El-Sayed 23% / McMorrow 16%
Definite voters
Stevens 25% / El-Sayed 23% / McMorrow 18%
I'd be fine with El-Sayed as the nominee but not Stevens.
I'd be fine with Stevens, but not El-Sayed. That said, I suspect either one of them would win the GE, although El-Sayed would likely make it much closer than it should be. Either Stevens or McMorrow should cruise to victory in the GE in this environment.
Based on the trendlines, their prior poll was very friendly to Stevens. They might be right, they might be wrong, we won't know until the election is over. But right now, their methodology is one that favors Stevens relative to what other pollsters are doing.
In that context, her losing 9 points of support is the most interesting detail. There's one other return poll I found, which also showed Stevens losing support since the start of the year, but only 4 points instead of 9 (Emerson Jan -> April).
Glengariff is a gop hack - Michigan has some of the worst pollsters in the business. Glengariff paid by the Detroit Chamber is basically nonsense. Steve Mitchell must have been on vacation as he’s the only bigger hack they could have hired.
The only Michigan pollster to put any stock in is EPIC-MRA and I still take their numbers with a grain of salt. But Bernie Porn at epic still has the best name in the business.
What is worrying to you about this poll?
I am not a Stevens fan — although the poll’s veracity has been questioned so that’s good at least.
The trendlines are interesting. Stevens leading (not what other polls have shown), but with a significant drop in support that is not fully accounted for. The MoE must be doing a lot of work here.
Rare to see undecided (listed as "not sure" in this poll) gain support in a poll.
This might be one of those things where typical Dem primary voters like all three of them and people like us get hung up on the narcissism of small differences.
I wouldn't say the differences between them are small, but I agree that primary voters probably have at least vaguely positive opinions of all three.
It's part of what makes primaries harder to poll: voters are more fluid than in a general election. In a primary most voters will like most, if not all, of their options available to them. They're making their decision on a blend of personal preferences and strategic expectations. It's why Becerra was able to rise in the polls so suddenly.
I cant think of a single proposed or anticipated thing or event coming down the pike for the rest of this year, that has even a prayer of turning public sentiment around for them. There's no big bills planned, no single issue campaigns to focus on, no one new with charisma to get behind, no singular bad guys like Bin Laden to capture. Just a vague hope that the economy improves after they've inflicted a thousand cuts. What, they'll get 2-3 points from a midterm convention maybe?
Really the only thing preventing a complete collapse is the markets being at or near all time highs propped up by AI and data center capex, with the positive effect that has on accounts and valuations. Any 15-20% downturn, and they are utterly doomed. And there are plenty of icebergs in the water which could cause a 15% correction this year, and almost nothing that would create another cycle of upside that would be felt by Nov.
Every year sees about a 9% pullback on average and we’ve had that with Iran, though I could see another summer swoon coming down the pike perhaps
That NYT focus group article that dropped today (while many levels of infuriating on a micro level) is bad news for Republicans because they need these voters to show up this November. Instead they'll emulate JD Vance and sit on the couch.
Good stuff. Does anyone have the partisan figures on the Ohio early vote?
https://data.ohiosos.gov/portal/election-dashboards
Amazing, thanks! Great news for us there!
2022 is a bit weird, as D side had no serious competition, but R side got some.
2024 is also hardly a good baseline. The may primary was running on Congressional and legislative races only. No statewide competition.
https://sos.ga.gov/page/election-data-hub-unofficial-turnout
The 2nd day up to now has been near parity, with Rs ahead by 300 ballots or so.
Over all, plus VBM, D ballots are leading by about 5000. About 8pt.
Dem turnout so far has a higher percentage of Black voters, almost 70%. And heavier from the Black majority exurbs south of i285 perimeter and the secondary cities.
I remember some polling showing Bottoms more popular with Dem primary voters out of the urban core, than within it. Probably some truth in that.
1 billion. Haha.
Yeah, the later volume was indeed more D votes. Today added 2k more ballots.
Now the primary turnout is ahead by 9k out of 71k total, about 12-13pt.
I wonder if the challengers to the two SCOGA justices are gaining any traction with Dem GA voters. I think if the ballot showed the partisan lean of the justices, it would.
Judicial races are officially non-partisan. They would only show which seat (to succeed judge AAA), candidates’ names, and who is the incumbent (like AAA running as incumbent to succeed the seat of AAA). No party designation.
For the handful of voters choosing neither D nor R ballots, only the judicial and referendum questions will be on their ballot.
It looks like Dems are ahead by over 1000 on the day and over 6500 total across the two days? Obviously still early, but a good sign. Dem vote centers open later in early voting typically.
Oh, yesterday’s numbers got updated a bit.
Today is near parity, with Ds ahead by 300 now.
Yesterday’s IPEV ahead by around 6300. Also ahead several hundred in VBM returned (there are 28k or so outstanding VBM ballots, about 4k more D than R requested)
So overall in the cast votes, D ballots ahead by around 7000, 11pt or so.
Newt Gingrich is an awful little man.
"Take solace it's only April" is certainly a hopeful way to go about things. Historically the party in the white house gets less and less popular as the election draws closer.
It takes a major event, like Dobbs, to shake that up. And they're too high on their own supply to realize that what they think will make them more popular actually accomplishes the exact opposite, like attacking Iran.
The low-propensity Trump voters who sat out 2022 don't seem particularly likely to show up in 2026, either.
“People should know by now to not count us out”
Wiles could have said this after the GOP lost both the NJ and VA gubernatorial races last year.
eight voices...waste of time
As long as I have been a long-time California native and resident, I’ve never seen as many debates being held in the gubernatorial race as in this one.
And the average voter will still likely not see any of them
Of course.
I'm surprised MeidasTouch or Pod Save America (who are all based in Los Angeles) haven't stepped in to host a debate. At least they would stream it live on YouTube instead of broadcast it on cable news.
Reminds me of the debate introduction from Veep before Jonah Ryan talks about African foreign policy: "featuring candidates polling between 5% and not statistically significant".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_koPVVhB7j8
Georgia has three state supreme court races on its ballot. Miracle Rankin and Jen Jordan are running for two of them! Great candidates!
Unfortunately, Justice Ben Land, who was appointed by Governor Kemp, did not draw a challenger. That means Justice Land, who helped ensure that Georgia could keep its near-absolute abortion ban on the books, will serve at least one more term!
Anyone know why Democrats failed to find a challenger against Justice Land?
It seems like Rankin and Jordan jumped in at the last minute. I'm sure that if these two women unseat the incumbents, there will be a challenger for all three seats up in May 2028 (right before the presidential election).
It's possible that the weak performance in 2024, where a seemingly strong candidate did well in rural areas and completely tanked in cities, may have discouraged many from running.
The House Majority PAC ad reservations mostly point to IA-01 and IA-03, but they've reserved a lot of ad space in the Cedar Rapids market, which covers most of IA-02. I keep telling people to watch IA-02. Those northeast Iowa counties did swing horrifically to Trump, but the GOP nominee (Joe Mitchell) doesn't look like a great fit for the district to me. He only just moved to northeast Iowa in September 2025 after growing up in the southeast part of the state (IA-01) and spending the last several years in Des Moines (IA-03).
TX Sen Poll:
Talarico 44% Cornyn 41%
Talarico 46% Paxton 41%
1,018 LV's; M/E +/-3.3. Conducted 4/17-20 by Texas Public Opinion Research.
https://www.texastribune.org/2026/04/28/texas-us-senate-poll-talarico-cornyn-paxton-2026-midterms/
Among Latino voters, Talarico leads Cornyn by a 32 and Paxton by 27. So much for Texas Latinos voting red.
It's odd that Talarico's lead with Latinos is smaller when facing Paxton.
Could just be statistical noise when looking at a smaller subset.
Correct me if I'm wrong but this is our first lead in a poll for this race. We had our first lead in an Iowa poll last week too. An encouraging trend!
I think Talarico has been ahead by a few in PPP and other Dem polls and tied in Emerson.. so good that the trend is up!
TX Gov. Poll: Abbott 48%; Hinojosa 43%. (Same link as senate poll.)
I'll never understand why Texans like Greg Abbott so much.
Also, who is voting for both Talarico and Abbott?
Apparently a lot of people
Since everyone is under 50% most of is probably different sizes and configurations of the undecided not cross voting
Moderately conservative suburban whites in the Dallas and Houston metroplexes
There's only 1-3 point difference between Talirico and Hinojosa, so no a huge cross vote.
could it be simply that he has an (R) after his name?
So do Cornyn and Paxton. In fact, that's the point...Abbott is doing better than others with Rs after their name.
Edit: really I think Abbott is performing normally, and Cornyn and Paxton are underperforming because of their own unpopularity and because of Trump's.
I'd agree with your edit. Republicans' unpopularity is magnified at the federal level, so not too surprising that the electoral impact is set to be largest with elections for federal offices. Cornyn and Paxton are tied to Trump in a way that Abbott is not.
Plus: realignments tend to start with federal elections first, and filter down to local elections later. This lines up with historical patterns.
I agree with everything you said. I'd like to add that voters typically consolidate once the primary is over. I'd expect the R number to be higher in the general than in pre-runoff head to heads.
Yes, but Cornyn and Paxton are likely to face a much stronger opponent in November than Abbott will. Trump was a shit-hole candidate in 2016 but his opponent proved to be weaker than everyone thought she would be. These polls measure a candidates strength and appeal in relation to their (likely) opponent and, like others here have said, the senate candidates are tied too much to trump and it is hurting them in polling v. Talarico who apparently has pretty broad support.
Should be noted that Greg Abbott led Beto O’Rourke by a wider margin in multiple polls up until this point.
O’Rourke did start to cut Abbott’s margin in the polls where he was down anywhere between 5-8%. However, this happened in September 2022, which was too little, too late.
Hinojosa seems to be doing better than O’Rourke polling wise but still has six months to tighten things more.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/texas-2022-greg-abbott-leads-beto-orourke-by-eight-in-gubernatorial-election/
https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3857
https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/lone-star-politics/abbott-maintains-lead-over-orourke-in-latest-dallas-morning-news-poll/3047972/?amp=1
I think Hinojosa could come really close, but I have my doubts she can win, even if I’m pretty high on Talarico’s chances in the Senate race. I do think the open AG race could be winnable, and maybe a few others with weak Republican incumbents, like the unusually powerful LG office. I hope Democrats adequately fund and focus on those races in case Talarico does win big enough to pull one or more others statewide Democratic officers across with him.
Abbott’s an extremely tough incumbent to unseat but considering his 2022 re-election margin of victory dropped compared to his past elections, if he wins re-election by an even smaller margin, this could bode well for future gains for TX Democrats.
Also, on a side note, for what it’s worth it should be noted that Abbott’s wife is Hispanic.
His mother-in-law used to appear in ads for him but she died in 2020.
-Disappointed that Jasmine Clark is taking crypto money.
-Surprised Ralph Norman has risen to second place in SC. It feels like anyone's race except for Kimbrell.
I was surprised by that too. But he has a ton of yard signs out, mainly in the upstate where he's from, while I've seen none for others. Wilson and Evette are on TV after 10 pm which is when I am normally on and not streaming. Kimbrell's local district is in the epicenter of the SC measles outbreak (biggest in the nation...woo hoo!) and he's had to backtrack on his anti-vax stances as day cares and schools in the area got shut down or quarantined. Nancy Mace is Macing. Getting some free pub from public statements but not much else I've seen.
I wish we had a more notable Dem in this race. Wilson, if he wins, has many vulnerabilities with scandals that he hasn't prosecuted bc he protects good old boys.
Who would you suggest as notable? The state auditor? Run Joe Cunningham again?
Cunningham? God no. The frat bro persona works for the GOP here, but not the Dems. The problem is we have no bench and Clyburn staying put in SC06 forever means we don't even have anyone on the federal level to move up. I like Jermaine Johnson, but 4 years in the state house coming off of a career as a pro hoops player in Europe is a thin resume. He's my choice though. McLeod is a bozo, but he's a connected Goodoleboy. Yuck. Billy Webster got in late, former Clinter admin scheduler and Payday Loan company owner. Meh.
Russell Ott or Justin Bamberg have larger profiles and would have been good. Heck even Bob Inglis could switch parties since he's been at odds with the Rs for a long time.
PA-Sen 2028 - Looks like this legal filing by a group of defendants including the National Park Service in the Trump ballroom case was likely written by Trump himself and attempts to use John Fetterman's definition of "Trump Derangement Syndrome" without actually defining it:
https://www.facebook.com/share/18asZ17qBQ/
I don't think this could easily be worked into a TV ad against Fetterman in a Democratic primary if Fetterman runs for re-election, but it would be hilarious if someone actually tried that.
On a slightly related note, there were literal fucking Redcoats marching on White House grounds moments ago.
I think we can probably put our hatred of Redcoats to bed now. 😂 (Unless you were hoping King Charles would reprise 1812.)