They could say something with the same intent (refusing to take blame) while still at least making noises about taking the issue seriously. It's not hard.
“No pain no gain” is a reasonable thing for a personal trainer to say. For a candidate for office defending his party YOLOing the U.S. economy to keep their manbaby cult leader happy? Nah
The article made it sound like they were already in the process of moving the district to Lean D; Issa's retirement just made them do it sooner than intended. Sabato, Gonzales, and Cook tend to move districts in batches at regular intervals once elections start getting underway. Once a few more states have had their primaries, there will probably be an update that would've included CA-48. It's only when people retire or there are major shakeups that they feel comfortable making adjustments to single districts.
I had to look him up, even though technical he's from my generation of rap music (except that I only listen to rap when I play baseball walk up songs for high schoolers, and I'm not sure they know who 2 live crew is).
Hard for me to see how the GOP could even remotely unseat Governor Shapiro.
I’ve had my criticisms of Shapiro but he’s been quite competent as Governor and hasn’t shown any vulnerabilities I can think of that the GOP can throw against him.
Yikes lol he is super popular - I hadn't heard of him before the race, but I mentioned he was running to my friends who are familiar with tejano music - up here in IL - and they said he's a pretty big deal.
News from the (Far) North: The MP from Nunavut, Lori Idlout, has crossed the floor from the NDP to join the Liberals. The government now just needs to win back the two seats in the Toronto area at next month's byelections and they will have a razor-thin majority. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/idlout-crossing-floor-liberals-9.7123443
Thanks, eloquent statement. And to be honest, I've always been happy the few times Republican Senators became Democrats. But it's worth questioning, at least.
Also worth pointing out is that the NDP wree in a supply and confidence arrangement in the last government term which nobody voted on technically either, so floor crossing isn't any less legitimate in my view.
You both make valid arguments. On the other hand, it is really, really funny in the current situation after the Liberals were supposed to be dead meat 18 months ago.
My “favorite” switch was when Matty Martinez switched to the GOP in 2000 after losing the democratic primary. Congressional Republicans were like “we don’t care, we don’t want you”
CA Gov: A new poll by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and sponsored by Politico finds that Republicans have been consolidating behind Steve Hilton, lowering the chances for a R v. R top two finish. The survey of 1004 LVs was taken 2/25-3/3. The result:
Swalwell is basically running even with Porter and Steyer. We are starting to see more separation between the Repubs as people start focusing on the campaign. I am a little surprised that Hilton is the one pulling ahead. He is more like a traditional CAGOP than full MAGA in style, though his policy positions are not much different from Sheriff Bianco.
I'm OK with Hilton in the top two. The real race is among the top tier Democrats to be the next Governor of California. I doubt that any of the others will break into the main group. The biggest impact of Mayor Mahan's campaign will be to enrich media companies with his ad buys.
1.) There is a lawsuit against Indiana's recent prohibition on using student ID to vote. The plaintiffs are represented, I understand, by the Elias Law Group (Marc Elias heads Democracy Docket).
2.) Indiana's Republican administration, led by Secretary of State Diego Morales and Governor Mike Braun, is partnering with Turning Point USA to register voters:
In addition to opposing the illegality of the state government partnering with a partisan entity, Indiana Democrats need to launch their own voter registration drive.
Interesting times in Utah! Moore is widely seen as a more moderate Republican but with Lisonbee stepping into the race this will drag him farther right. The Democrats need a strong challenger here and they *might* (strong emphasis on might!) take this seat too. The other interesting Utah race is going to be between Maloy and Lyman in the southern part of the state. With Lyman being an election denier and having a Trump pardon it’ll be interesting to see if Maloy can hold up against him in this district that is more favorable towards Lyman and his coalition.
Absolutely unlikely, especially with no strong contender yet in the race. You’d need great name recognition coupled with a hunger for national media and a likely war chest to beat Moore, but never say never? Look at AOC and Mamdani. Granted, both are deeply progressive in NYC which would not win in this district, but they were strong social media candidates that came out of nowhere to unseat the defendant.
Yeah, by the time primary day came around a Mamdani victory looked more likely than not. It wasn't guaranteed, but it was the more likely outcome. The real surprise wasn't that he won, but that he won on the first round without needing to go into ballot reallocation.
AOC and Mamdani won Dem primaries in deep blue constituencies. Not sure I see the applicability to trying to unseat a Republican rep in a district Trump won by 30+ points. Not saying an upset is impossible (particularly given the relative antipathy between the Mormon community and MAGA) but not sure I see how the AOC and Mamdani examples are useful?
The 10 straight thing is misleading. We should stop saying it.
That would mean Dems have gone 10/10 in the last 10 opportunities to flip GOP held seats in specials, that is not true.
We have had 10 flips and they have not had any. But that is not winning 10 straight. We have lost plenty of specials, just not one where it was a previously held Dem seat.
The actual streak is with the holds, not the pickups.
Yeah I don't really see a situation where "10 straight" works. Even if you exclude the AR-Senate election because it didn't have a Democrat, there was an OK-House special election within 10 specials that we didn't flip.
UTAH: How about a reasonably good Independent? Whatever happened to Evan McMullin? Is he contemplating running for office in 2026? If so, in which race would we prefer him to run?
I’d say running for Governor might be a more suitable path first instead of the Senate. Perhaps McMullin can built stature and clout here in this way first.
Before last night, New Hampshire had been somewhat underwhelming for special elections this cycle. Republicans held the swingy Coös County seat in November, albeit narrowly. Billie Butler slightly underperformed Harris in the Stafford County special last June. The former you could attribute to the prior Dem incumbent being a retread. The latter probably had a bit of transphobia driving it. Last night was a major reversal, with high turnout to boot. Is that a sign that Ayotte might be in real danger? Was the Republican candidate worse than a generic Republican? Statistical noise from such a big state House with small districts?
Wait, did republicans seriously draw themselves that optimistic of a gerrymander for the state senate and gov council? One that completely collapses in the face of an environment favoring us. I never looked up the presidential numbers for the council or senate, but I had assumed that republicans were far smarter about it...
Probably a little both of all three. Because if this energy keeps up in NH of all states, it's possible (considering how small the state legislative districts are) to flip control of the legislature and send Ayotte packing.
Couple of comments on the CA-Gov mess focused only on polling. First, in addition to the UC Berkeley/ Citrin poll posted by Hilltopper, there's a second new poll from Emerson. This one has:
and second, regarding the CADem party polling, last night I spoke w/ one of the party officials who voted to authorize the polls. This is entirely separate from any of the other polls. They are retaining a Black/Latino led firm. The first poll will be released on March 24. There's nothing backing up the polling -- no IE money, no agreement reached to drop out, etc. Just the polls.
I have major criticisms of party leadership decisions here, but that's another story.
Of course they can't force the campaigns to drop out but i guess it's just putting pressure on the obvious campaigns that are going nowhere to get a clue.
For 2028, Democrats should push to get a proposition on the ballot to end the top two primary system and revert back to the old system the way it is. Then we reform things better election wise.
Abel Maldonado and Co are no longer relevant and influential. Why we still keep the top two system in place I have no idea.
feel like the way out of top 2 is to copy Alaska and do top 4 with tanked choice, would be very similar to top 2 but drastically reduce the chance of a lock out
Ranked choice yes but in CA, so far it works better in the general election as opposed to the primary. At least locally in Berkeley, Oakland and San Francisco this is the case.
From a democracy standpoint, every political party has the right to run in the general election. Ranked choice should follow general election results.
Glad to see it. Having a former police officer who literally put his life on the line for democracy would be a great voice to have in the House Dem caucus.
I do give Dunn credit as the son of a veteran. I say that as the daughter of a veteran. When a parent serves in the military, so does a spouse and children. However, you are correct that Vote Vets should have been clear.
I am too and, more prosaically, haven’t Hoyer and Pelosi had a rivalry since their youth when they were both just starting out in politics? So it would track that they would endorse different candidates in the same primary.
Just imagine being Lasher and Bores, doing everything right in their political career the right way and seeking promotion only to be potentially dogwalked by a social media influencer and nepo baby because of his surname (second surname more accurately).
i don't think that's entirely true. My family in maine is surrounded during the summer by Mass residents, many of whom lean conservative but never switched their registration away from Democratic. They hated Ted, don't really remember JFK and happily voted against the then scion of the family.
On the other end of the coin, I hate to admit it, but so many of my partner Sarah's friends live in Boston and voted for Markey because they "think the Kennedy's are an out of touch dynasty" saying things like "f the kennedys," and a lot of that garbage.
In a sense it makes sense, not many Mass residents still remember the glory days of the Kennedy dynasty, and fail to remember John, Bobby, and Teddy did so much good for this country, with teddy arguably doing the most good--simply because he lived the longest.
My kennedy apologism does not extend to bobby jr, and never did fwiw.
I'd disagree, personally. JPK3 was challenging an incumbent senator with zero personal, ethical, or ideological issues, who was a good fit for the state and not seen as having "abandoned" them in any sense. Despite that, he came fairly close (55-45) to winning.
The only reason Kennedy had any serious chance against Markey was because of his last name. That's the reason he was able to get in the house in the first place, for that matter. He didn't have the background to have zero serious primary opponents for an open seat back in 2012.
Subjective but I am still happy that Markey won because JK3 is extremely close with AIPAC. This was one of the reasons why progressive organizations and AOC went all in for Markey.
If we’re breakeven with whites this fall in Texas then hello Senator Talarico
“We can’t admit Trump is an idiot so you’ll just have to suffer” isn’t much better of a message granted!
It's kind of incredibly tone deaf and just lazy.
They could say something with the same intent (refusing to take blame) while still at least making noises about taking the issue seriously. It's not hard.
“No pain no gain” is a reasonable thing for a personal trainer to say. For a candidate for office defending his party YOLOing the U.S. economy to keep their manbaby cult leader happy? Nah
Sabato had CA-48 as tossup before Issa resigned?
It was Lean Democrat the whole time. No way a Lean Blue district could have been won by Issa.
The article made it sound like they were already in the process of moving the district to Lean D; Issa's retirement just made them do it sooner than intended. Sabato, Gonzales, and Cook tend to move districts in batches at regular intervals once elections start getting underway. Once a few more states have had their primaries, there will probably be an update that would've included CA-48. It's only when people retire or there are major shakeups that they feel comfortable making adjustments to single districts.
I’d say Sabato made a fail.
CA-48 was Lean Blue right after Prop 50 passed. No reason why they had to take this long.
manley would be an upgrade imo, but i know nothing about fl politics
Lol Campbell has only 1%. Celebrity power can’t get you everything
I had to look him up, even though technical he's from my generation of rap music (except that I only listen to rap when I play baseball walk up songs for high schoolers, and I'm not sure they know who 2 live crew is).
You don't remember the controversy about their lyrics and suggestions to censor them.
Anybody in that district who mainly knows him from that era of their life probably would prefer him not being their member of Congress, haha
Dunno about that.
Mercifully, that's one one bit of pop culture drama I've avoided
Hopefully this helps with some downballot races for both the US House and the state legislature.
Hello Reps. Bob Harvie, Bob Brooks, Paige Cognetti and Janelle Stelson, hopefully
Hard for me to see how the GOP could even remotely unseat Governor Shapiro.
I’ve had my criticisms of Shapiro but he’s been quite competent as Governor and hasn’t shown any vulnerabilities I can think of that the GOP can throw against him.
Yikes lol he is super popular - I hadn't heard of him before the race, but I mentioned he was running to my friends who are familiar with tejano music - up here in IL - and they said he's a pretty big deal.
If you invite a pol who sings to your kids bday party, do you have to report the venue and cake as in kind donations to the campaign?
(Asking only half tongue in cheek)
News from the (Far) North: The MP from Nunavut, Lori Idlout, has crossed the floor from the NDP to join the Liberals. The government now just needs to win back the two seats in the Toronto area at next month's byelections and they will have a razor-thin majority. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/idlout-crossing-floor-liberals-9.7123443
If only a couple of of representatives in the US House, and three or four senators would "cross the floor", right here in America!
Not a fan of floor crossings. They should step down and then run for their new party in a special election
Thanks, eloquent statement. And to be honest, I've always been happy the few times Republican Senators became Democrats. But it's worth questioning, at least.
Also worth pointing out is that the NDP wree in a supply and confidence arrangement in the last government term which nobody voted on technically either, so floor crossing isn't any less legitimate in my view.
I agree. That's not the party their constituents voted for.
You both make valid arguments. On the other hand, it is really, really funny in the current situation after the Liberals were supposed to be dead meat 18 months ago.
LMAO Chairman Mark attracting those in for the long march! : r/EhBuddyHoser https://share.google/FbgmrcMDPYsX1xYLj
In a small-r republican system, you're (at least in theory) electing the person, not the party
That’s what Phil Gramm did in 1983.
My “favorite” switch was when Matty Martinez switched to the GOP in 2000 after losing the democratic primary. Congressional Republicans were like “we don’t care, we don’t want you”
I think if the party or it's leadership takes a right turn from what they were, then crossings make perfect sense.
CA Gov: A new poll by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and sponsored by Politico finds that Republicans have been consolidating behind Steve Hilton, lowering the chances for a R v. R top two finish. The survey of 1004 LVs was taken 2/25-3/3. The result:
Hilton 19%
Steyer 13%
Porter 11%
Swalwell 11%
Bianco 11%
Becerra 5%
Villaraigosa 4%
Mahan 3%
Yee 2%
Calderon 2%
Thurmond 1%
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/11/poll-hilton-dems-california-govenor-race-00822123?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
Will CA Democrats consolidate behind Swalwell?
Probably not. Why should we?
Swalwell is basically running even with Porter and Steyer. We are starting to see more separation between the Repubs as people start focusing on the campaign. I am a little surprised that Hilton is the one pulling ahead. He is more like a traditional CAGOP than full MAGA in style, though his policy positions are not much different from Sheriff Bianco.
I'm OK with Hilton in the top two. The real race is among the top tier Democrats to be the next Governor of California. I doubt that any of the others will break into the main group. The biggest impact of Mayor Mahan's campaign will be to enrich media companies with his ad buys.
Emerson poll has Swalwell up with 17 to Hilton 13 and Steyer and Blanco at 11.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-swalwell-takes-lead-in-governor-primary-25-undecided-election-for-la-mayor-wide-open/
I expected that Hilton would be the ideal GOP nominee. He has more appeal than Bianco does in demographics wider than just MAGA.
But that’s not saying a lot.
Two Important Stories on Voting from Indiana:
1.) There is a lawsuit against Indiana's recent prohibition on using student ID to vote. The plaintiffs are represented, I understand, by the Elias Law Group (Marc Elias heads Democracy Docket).
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/03/11/indiana-ag-pushes-back-against-court-effort-to-halt-student-id-voting-ban-before-2026-election/?emci=88647eeb-a41c-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=faced2a1-3d1d-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
2.) Indiana's Republican administration, led by Secretary of State Diego Morales and Governor Mike Braun, is partnering with Turning Point USA to register voters:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/03/10/indiana-officials-further-linking-up-with-conservative-group-turning-point-usa/?emci=88647eeb-a41c-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=faced2a1-3d1d-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
In addition to opposing the illegality of the state government partnering with a partisan entity, Indiana Democrats need to launch their own voter registration drive.
Interesting times in Utah! Moore is widely seen as a more moderate Republican but with Lisonbee stepping into the race this will drag him farther right. The Democrats need a strong challenger here and they *might* (strong emphasis on might!) take this seat too. The other interesting Utah race is going to be between Maloy and Lyman in the southern part of the state. With Lyman being an election denier and having a Trump pardon it’ll be interesting to see if Maloy can hold up against him in this district that is more favorable towards Lyman and his coalition.
Interesting, but just how Republican is Moore's district?
66-34 under new map (composite from elections this decade per DRA)
So a very unlikely flip.
Absolutely unlikely, especially with no strong contender yet in the race. You’d need great name recognition coupled with a hunger for national media and a likely war chest to beat Moore, but never say never? Look at AOC and Mamdani. Granted, both are deeply progressive in NYC which would not win in this district, but they were strong social media candidates that came out of nowhere to unseat the defendant.
I don't say never but definitely don't think Mamdani is relevant at all. AOC was a big upset, yes.
Yeah, by the time primary day came around a Mamdani victory looked more likely than not. It wasn't guaranteed, but it was the more likely outcome. The real surprise wasn't that he won, but that he won on the first round without needing to go into ballot reallocation.
AOC and Mamdani won Dem primaries in deep blue constituencies. Not sure I see the applicability to trying to unseat a Republican rep in a district Trump won by 30+ points. Not saying an upset is impossible (particularly given the relative antipathy between the Mormon community and MAGA) but not sure I see how the AOC and Mamdani examples are useful?
Just how much antipathy is there, really? It hasn't seemed very evident since 2024, if we believe opinion polls.
Marist GCB:
Dems 53-44
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/NPR_PBS-News_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202603091024.pdf
Nice nice keep it right around +10
The 10 straight thing is misleading. We should stop saying it.
That would mean Dems have gone 10/10 in the last 10 opportunities to flip GOP held seats in specials, that is not true.
We have had 10 flips and they have not had any. But that is not winning 10 straight. We have lost plenty of specials, just not one where it was a previously held Dem seat.
The actual streak is with the holds, not the pickups.
Yeah I don't really see a situation where "10 straight" works. Even if you exclude the AR-Senate election because it didn't have a Democrat, there was an OK-House special election within 10 specials that we didn't flip.
UTAH: How about a reasonably good Independent? Whatever happened to Evan McMullin? Is he contemplating running for office in 2026? If so, in which race would we prefer him to run?
He lives in the 3rd district, which got considerably redder with the new map.
Is there nothing that would be viable for him to run for?
I’d say running for Governor might be a more suitable path first instead of the Senate. Perhaps McMullin can built stature and clout here in this way first.
Before last night, New Hampshire had been somewhat underwhelming for special elections this cycle. Republicans held the swingy Coös County seat in November, albeit narrowly. Billie Butler slightly underperformed Harris in the Stafford County special last June. The former you could attribute to the prior Dem incumbent being a retread. The latter probably had a bit of transphobia driving it. Last night was a major reversal, with high turnout to boot. Is that a sign that Ayotte might be in real danger? Was the Republican candidate worse than a generic Republican? Statistical noise from such a big state House with small districts?
Wait, did republicans seriously draw themselves that optimistic of a gerrymander for the state senate and gov council? One that completely collapses in the face of an environment favoring us. I never looked up the presidential numbers for the council or senate, but I had assumed that republicans were far smarter about it...
Probably a little both of all three. Because if this energy keeps up in NH of all states, it's possible (considering how small the state legislative districts are) to flip control of the legislature and send Ayotte packing.
Couple of comments on the CA-Gov mess focused only on polling. First, in addition to the UC Berkeley/ Citrin poll posted by Hilltopper, there's a second new poll from Emerson. This one has:
🟦Eric Swalwell 17.3%
🟥Steve Hilton 13.3%
🟥Chad Bianco 11.4%
🟦Tom Steyer 10.9%
🟦Katie Porter 8.4%
🟦Matt Mahan 3.2%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 3.2%
🟦Xavier Becerra 3.0%
🟦Betty Yee 2.3%
🟦Tony Thurmond 1.0%
Someone else 1.3%
Undecided 24.5%
link: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-swalwell-takes-lead-in-governor-primary-25-undecided-election-for-la-mayor-wide-open/
and second, regarding the CADem party polling, last night I spoke w/ one of the party officials who voted to authorize the polls. This is entirely separate from any of the other polls. They are retaining a Black/Latino led firm. The first poll will be released on March 24. There's nothing backing up the polling -- no IE money, no agreement reached to drop out, etc. Just the polls.
I have major criticisms of party leadership decisions here, but that's another story.
Of course they can't force the campaigns to drop out but i guess it's just putting pressure on the obvious campaigns that are going nowhere to get a clue.
"Undecided" should actually be at the top of the column, not the bottom. After all, "Undecided" is leading Swalwell by 7.3 %.
For 2028, Democrats should push to get a proposition on the ballot to end the top two primary system and revert back to the old system the way it is. Then we reform things better election wise.
Abel Maldonado and Co are no longer relevant and influential. Why we still keep the top two system in place I have no idea.
Unfortunately I don't think it would be easy to repeal Top 2 via proposition because dumb systems like it tend to be popular with the normies.
How is top two popular with normies? I never heard any of them argue they wanted this in the first place.
feel like the way out of top 2 is to copy Alaska and do top 4 with tanked choice, would be very similar to top 2 but drastically reduce the chance of a lock out
That's a better system electorally than top 2 and traditional anyway.
Ranked choice yes but in CA, so far it works better in the general election as opposed to the primary. At least locally in Berkeley, Oakland and San Francisco this is the case.
From a democracy standpoint, every political party has the right to run in the general election. Ranked choice should follow general election results.
"Politico: Pelosi backs former Capitol Police officer over Hoyer’s preferred successor in Maryland #MD05
The former House speaker is endorsing Harry Dunn (D) over retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-MD) former campaign manager."
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2031707377477595339
Glad to see it. Having a former police officer who literally put his life on the line for democracy would be a great voice to have in the House Dem caucus.
If I am remembering correctly, he is also a veteran.
Thank you for the correction.
I do give Dunn credit as the son of a veteran. I say that as the daughter of a veteran. When a parent serves in the military, so does a spouse and children. However, you are correct that Vote Vets should have been clear.
I am too and, more prosaically, haven’t Hoyer and Pelosi had a rivalry since their youth when they were both just starting out in politics? So it would track that they would endorse different candidates in the same primary.
Well, both Hoyer and Pelosi happen to be Maryland natives. I have no idea about their rivalry.
AFAIK their rivalry started when they both ran for Minority Whip in like 2003, not before.
Ahhh ok. Thanks for the heads up.
He also pulled a gun on his wife….so there’s that !
Just imagine being Lasher and Bores, doing everything right in their political career the right way and seeking promotion only to be potentially dogwalked by a social media influencer and nepo baby because of his surname (second surname more accurately).
Technically the surname Schlossberg has no resonance politically but i see what you mean.
Agree to disagree on all fronts.
the kennedy magic gives and takes, jk3 would have been a great senator, and I say that as a huge fan of senator markey
He surely didn't lose -because- he was a Kennedy.
i don't think that's entirely true. My family in maine is surrounded during the summer by Mass residents, many of whom lean conservative but never switched their registration away from Democratic. They hated Ted, don't really remember JFK and happily voted against the then scion of the family.
On the other end of the coin, I hate to admit it, but so many of my partner Sarah's friends live in Boston and voted for Markey because they "think the Kennedy's are an out of touch dynasty" saying things like "f the kennedys," and a lot of that garbage.
In a sense it makes sense, not many Mass residents still remember the glory days of the Kennedy dynasty, and fail to remember John, Bobby, and Teddy did so much good for this country, with teddy arguably doing the most good--simply because he lived the longest.
My kennedy apologism does not extend to bobby jr, and never did fwiw.
Re: your first paragraph: You're saying that conservative Democrats voted for Markey in that primary?
Yes Markey performed well in rural areas.
There are very liberal Democrats in rural areas of Massachusetts such as the Berkshires, I thought.
I'd disagree, personally. JPK3 was challenging an incumbent senator with zero personal, ethical, or ideological issues, who was a good fit for the state and not seen as having "abandoned" them in any sense. Despite that, he came fairly close (55-45) to winning.
The only reason Kennedy had any serious chance against Markey was because of his last name. That's the reason he was able to get in the house in the first place, for that matter. He didn't have the background to have zero serious primary opponents for an open seat back in 2012.
Yeah he was involved with the anti marijuana SAM group so didn’t mind him losing at all.
Subjective but I am still happy that Markey won because JK3 is extremely close with AIPAC. This was one of the reasons why progressive organizations and AOC went all in for Markey.