News from the (Far) North: The MP from Nunavut, Lori Idlout, has crossed the floor from the NDP to join the Liberals. The government now just needs to win back the two seats in the Toronto area at next month's byelections and they will have a razor-thin majority. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/idlout-crossing-floor-liberals-9.7123443
You both make valid arguments. On the other hand, it is really, really funny in the current situation after the Liberals were supposed to be dead meat 18 months ago.
My “favorite” switch was when Matty Martinez switched to the GOP in 2000 after losing the democratic primary. Congressional Republicans were like “we don’t care, we don’t want you”
CA Gov: A new poll by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and sponsored by Politico finds that Republicans have been consolidating behind Steve Hilton, lowering the chances for a R v. R top two finish. The survey of 1004 LVs was taken 2/25-3/3. The result:
Swalwell is basically running even with Porter and Steyer. We are starting to see more separation between the Repubs as people start focusing on the campaign. I am a little surprised that Hilton is the one pulling ahead. He is more like a traditional CAGOP than full MAGA in style, though his policy positions are not much different from Sheriff Bianco.
I'm OK with Hilton in the top two. The real race is among the top tier Democrats to be the next Governor of California. I doubt that any of the others will break into the main group. The biggest impact of Mayor Mahan's campaign will be to enrich media companies with his ad buys.
1.) There is a lawsuit against Indiana's recent prohibition on using student ID to vote. The plaintiffs are represented, I understand, by the Elias Law Group (Marc Elias heads Democracy Docket).
2.) Indiana's Republican administration, led by Secretary of State Diego Morales and Governor Mike Braun, is partnering with Turning Point USA to register voters:
In addition to opposing the illegality of the state government partnering with a partisan entity, Indiana Democrats need to launch their own voter registration drive.
Interesting times in Utah! Moore is widely seen as a more moderate Republican but with Lisonbee stepping into the race this will drag him farther right. The Democrats need a strong challenger here and they *might* (strong emphasis on might!) take this seat too. The other interesting Utah race is going to be between Maloy and Lyman in the southern part of the state. With Lyman being an election denier and having a Trump pardon it’ll be interesting to see if Maloy can hold up against him in this district that is more favorable towards Lyman and his coalition.
Absolutely unlikely, especially with no strong contender yet in the race. You’d need great name recognition coupled with a hunger for national media and a likely war chest to beat Moore, but never say never? Look at AOC and Mamdani. Granted, both are deeply progressive in NYC which would not win in this district, but they were strong social media candidates that came out of nowhere to unseat the defendant.
The 10 straight thing is misleading. We should stop saying it.
That would mean Dems have gone 10/10 in the last 10 opportunities to flip GOP held seats in specials, that is not true.
We have had 10 flips and they have not had any. But that is not winning 10 straight. We have lost plenty of specials, just not one where it was a previously held Dem seat.
The actual streak is with the holds, not the pickups.
Yeah I don't really see a situation where "10 straight" works. Even if you exclude the AR-Senate election because it didn't have a Democrat, there was an OK-House special election within 10 specials that we didn't flip.
UTAH: How about a reasonably good Independent? Whatever happened to Evan McMullin? Is he contemplating running for office in 2026? If so, in which race would we prefer him to run?
Before last night, New Hampshire had been somewhat underwhelming for special elections this cycle. Republicans held the swingy Coös County seat in November, albeit narrowly. Billie Butler slightly underperformed Harris in the Stafford County special last June. The former you could attribute to the prior Dem incumbent being a retread. The latter probably had a bit of transphobia driving it. Last night was a major reversal, with high turnout to boot. Is that a sign that Ayotte might be in real danger? Was the Republican candidate worse than a generic Republican? Statistical noise from such a big state House with small districts?
Probably a little both of all three. Because if this energy keeps up in NH of all states, it's possible (considering how small the state legislative districts are) to flip control of the legislature and send Ayotte packing.
There's one important thing to keep in mind here. As disappointing as the narrow loss in Coos was, the Dem still outperformed Harris by between 3 and 4 percent there. And if every Democrat in New Hampshire outperformed Harris by between 3 and 4 percent this fall, then we'd pick up 4 state Senate seats (9, 11, 12, and 18) to tie the chamber, easily win a majority in the state House, and win all five Executive Council seats. So even just that small improvement would have a major impact in New Hampshire. It goes to show how thinly the Republicans have spread their voters here.
And if every Democrat in New Hampshire outperformed Harris by as much as Boudman did yesterday, then we would literally pick up 12 state Senate seats for a 20D-4R chamber (the only ones they'd hold are 17, 19, 22, and 23). We would also easily win a 2/3 majority in the state House, and possibly get as many as 300 seats.
Couple of comments on the CA-Gov mess focused only on polling. First, in addition to the UC Berkeley/ Citrin poll posted by Hilltopper, there's a second new poll from Emerson. This one has:
and second, regarding the CADem party polling, last night I spoke w/ one of the party officials who voted to authorize the polls. This is entirely separate from any of the other polls. They are retaining a Black/Latino led firm. The first poll will be released on March 24. There's nothing backing up the polling -- no IE money, no agreement reached to drop out, etc. Just the polls.
I have major criticisms of party leadership decisions here, but that's another story.
Of course they can't force the campaigns to drop out but i guess it's just putting pressure on the obvious campaigns that are going nowhere to get a clue.
Glad to see it. Having a former police officer who literally put his life on the line for democracy would be a great voice to have in the House Dem caucus.
He's not, it was actually a point of contention when VoteVets endorsed him over one of the four veterans in the 2024 primary (Juan Dominguez, Don Quinn, Jake Pretot, and Mike Rogers).
I do give Dunn credit as the son of a veteran. I say that as the daughter of a veteran. When a parent serves in the military, so does a spouse and children. However, you are correct that Vote Vets should have been clear.
Just imagine being Lasher and Bores, doing everything right in their political career the right way and seeking promotion only to be potentially dogwalked by a social media influencer and nepo baby because of his surname (second surname more accurately).
And it was taken before Husted made this embarrassing comment: "People living in poverty are just not very, um, experienced at navigating the real world, right?"
According to Jake Sherman, it looks like Jim Clyburn will be retiring from Congress, citing the congressman having a "campaign announcement" scheduled for tomorrow morning at 10:30 a.m.
News from the (Far) North: The MP from Nunavut, Lori Idlout, has crossed the floor from the NDP to join the Liberals. The government now just needs to win back the two seats in the Toronto area at next month's byelections and they will have a razor-thin majority. https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/idlout-crossing-floor-liberals-9.7123443
If only a couple of of representatives in the US House, and three or four senators would "cross the floor", right here in America!
Not a fan of floor crossings. They should step down and then run for their new party in a special election
I agree. That's not the party their constituents voted for.
You both make valid arguments. On the other hand, it is really, really funny in the current situation after the Liberals were supposed to be dead meat 18 months ago.
LMAO Chairman Mark attracting those in for the long march! : r/EhBuddyHoser https://share.google/FbgmrcMDPYsX1xYLj
In a small-r republican system, you're (at least in theory) electing the person, not the party
That’s what Phil Gramm did in 1983.
My “favorite” switch was when Matty Martinez switched to the GOP in 2000 after losing the democratic primary. Congressional Republicans were like “we don’t care, we don’t want you”
CA Gov: A new poll by the UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research and sponsored by Politico finds that Republicans have been consolidating behind Steve Hilton, lowering the chances for a R v. R top two finish. The survey of 1004 LVs was taken 2/25-3/3. The result:
Hilton 19%
Steyer 13%
Porter 11%
Swalwell 11%
Bianco 11%
Becerra 5%
Villaraigosa 4%
Mahan 3%
Yee 2%
Calderon 2%
Thurmond 1%
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/11/poll-hilton-dems-california-govenor-race-00822123?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it
Will CA Democrats consolidate behind Swalwell?
Probably not. Why should we?
Swalwell is basically running even with Porter and Steyer. We are starting to see more separation between the Repubs as people start focusing on the campaign. I am a little surprised that Hilton is the one pulling ahead. He is more like a traditional CAGOP than full MAGA in style, though his policy positions are not much different from Sheriff Bianco.
I'm OK with Hilton in the top two. The real race is among the top tier Democrats to be the next Governor of California. I doubt that any of the others will break into the main group. The biggest impact of Mayor Mahan's campaign will be to enrich media companies with his ad buys.
Emerson poll has Swalwell up with 17 to Hilton 13 and Steyer and Blanco at 11.
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-swalwell-takes-lead-in-governor-primary-25-undecided-election-for-la-mayor-wide-open/
Two Important Stories on Voting from Indiana:
1.) There is a lawsuit against Indiana's recent prohibition on using student ID to vote. The plaintiffs are represented, I understand, by the Elias Law Group (Marc Elias heads Democracy Docket).
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/03/11/indiana-ag-pushes-back-against-court-effort-to-halt-student-id-voting-ban-before-2026-election/?emci=88647eeb-a41c-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=faced2a1-3d1d-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
2.) Indiana's Republican administration, led by Secretary of State Diego Morales and Governor Mike Braun, is partnering with Turning Point USA to register voters:
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/03/10/indiana-officials-further-linking-up-with-conservative-group-turning-point-usa/?emci=88647eeb-a41c-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&emdi=faced2a1-3d1d-f111-9a48-000d3a14b640&ceid=630426
In addition to opposing the illegality of the state government partnering with a partisan entity, Indiana Democrats need to launch their own voter registration drive.
TPA is technically/legally nonpartisan unfortunately, just like a Dem-aligned voter reg with CAP Action would be "nonpartisan"
Interesting times in Utah! Moore is widely seen as a more moderate Republican but with Lisonbee stepping into the race this will drag him farther right. The Democrats need a strong challenger here and they *might* (strong emphasis on might!) take this seat too. The other interesting Utah race is going to be between Maloy and Lyman in the southern part of the state. With Lyman being an election denier and having a Trump pardon it’ll be interesting to see if Maloy can hold up against him in this district that is more favorable towards Lyman and his coalition.
Interesting, but just how Republican is Moore's district?
66-34 under new map (composite from elections this decade per DRA)
So a very unlikely flip.
Absolutely unlikely, especially with no strong contender yet in the race. You’d need great name recognition coupled with a hunger for national media and a likely war chest to beat Moore, but never say never? Look at AOC and Mamdani. Granted, both are deeply progressive in NYC which would not win in this district, but they were strong social media candidates that came out of nowhere to unseat the defendant.
I don't say never but definitely don't think Mamdani is relevant at all. AOC was a big upset, yes.
Marist GCB:
Dems 53-44
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/NPR_PBS-News_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202603091024.pdf
Nice nice keep it right around +10
The 10 straight thing is misleading. We should stop saying it.
That would mean Dems have gone 10/10 in the last 10 opportunities to flip GOP held seats in specials, that is not true.
We have had 10 flips and they have not had any. But that is not winning 10 straight. We have lost plenty of specials, just not one where it was a previously held Dem seat.
The actual streak is with the holds, not the pickups.
Yeah I don't really see a situation where "10 straight" works. Even if you exclude the AR-Senate election because it didn't have a Democrat, there was an OK-House special election within 10 specials that we didn't flip.
UTAH: How about a reasonably good Independent? Whatever happened to Evan McMullin? Is he contemplating running for office in 2026? If so, in which race would we prefer him to run?
He lives in the 3rd district, which got considerably redder with the new map.
Is there nothing that would be viable for him to run for?
Before last night, New Hampshire had been somewhat underwhelming for special elections this cycle. Republicans held the swingy Coös County seat in November, albeit narrowly. Billie Butler slightly underperformed Harris in the Stafford County special last June. The former you could attribute to the prior Dem incumbent being a retread. The latter probably had a bit of transphobia driving it. Last night was a major reversal, with high turnout to boot. Is that a sign that Ayotte might be in real danger? Was the Republican candidate worse than a generic Republican? Statistical noise from such a big state House with small districts?
Probably a little both of all three. Because if this energy keeps up in NH of all states, it's possible (considering how small the state legislative districts are) to flip control of the legislature and send Ayotte packing.
There's one important thing to keep in mind here. As disappointing as the narrow loss in Coos was, the Dem still outperformed Harris by between 3 and 4 percent there. And if every Democrat in New Hampshire outperformed Harris by between 3 and 4 percent this fall, then we'd pick up 4 state Senate seats (9, 11, 12, and 18) to tie the chamber, easily win a majority in the state House, and win all five Executive Council seats. So even just that small improvement would have a major impact in New Hampshire. It goes to show how thinly the Republicans have spread their voters here.
And if every Democrat in New Hampshire outperformed Harris by as much as Boudman did yesterday, then we would literally pick up 12 state Senate seats for a 20D-4R chamber (the only ones they'd hold are 17, 19, 22, and 23). We would also easily win a 2/3 majority in the state House, and possibly get as many as 300 seats.
Couple of comments on the CA-Gov mess focused only on polling. First, in addition to the UC Berkeley/ Citrin poll posted by Hilltopper, there's a second new poll from Emerson. This one has:
🟦Eric Swalwell 17.3%
🟥Steve Hilton 13.3%
🟥Chad Bianco 11.4%
🟦Tom Steyer 10.9%
🟦Katie Porter 8.4%
🟦Matt Mahan 3.2%
🟦Antonio Villaraigosa 3.2%
🟦Xavier Becerra 3.0%
🟦Betty Yee 2.3%
🟦Tony Thurmond 1.0%
Someone else 1.3%
Undecided 24.5%
link: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/california-2026-poll-swalwell-takes-lead-in-governor-primary-25-undecided-election-for-la-mayor-wide-open/
and second, regarding the CADem party polling, last night I spoke w/ one of the party officials who voted to authorize the polls. This is entirely separate from any of the other polls. They are retaining a Black/Latino led firm. The first poll will be released on March 24. There's nothing backing up the polling -- no IE money, no agreement reached to drop out, etc. Just the polls.
I have major criticisms of party leadership decisions here, but that's another story.
Of course they can't force the campaigns to drop out but i guess it's just putting pressure on the obvious campaigns that are going nowhere to get a clue.
"Undecided" should actually be at the top of the column, not the bottom. After all, "Undecided" is leading Swalwell by 7.3 %.
"Politico: Pelosi backs former Capitol Police officer over Hoyer’s preferred successor in Maryland #MD05
The former House speaker is endorsing Harry Dunn (D) over retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer’s (D-MD) former campaign manager."
https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/2031707377477595339
Glad to see it. Having a former police officer who literally put his life on the line for democracy would be a great voice to have in the House Dem caucus.
If I am remembering correctly, he is also a veteran.
He's not, it was actually a point of contention when VoteVets endorsed him over one of the four veterans in the 2024 primary (Juan Dominguez, Don Quinn, Jake Pretot, and Mike Rogers).
https://marylandmatters.org/2024/04/19/veterans-pac-ruffles-feathers-by-not-endorsing-a-veteran-in-md-congressional-race/
Thank you for the correction.
Ofc, they definitely made that mistake easier to make.
I do give Dunn credit as the son of a veteran. I say that as the daughter of a veteran. When a parent serves in the military, so does a spouse and children. However, you are correct that Vote Vets should have been clear.
Just imagine being Lasher and Bores, doing everything right in their political career the right way and seeking promotion only to be potentially dogwalked by a social media influencer and nepo baby because of his surname (second surname more accurately).
Technically the surname Schlossberg has no resonance politically but i see what you mean.
Agree to disagree on all fronts.
the kennedy magic gives and takes, jk3 would have been a great senator, and I say that as a huge fan of senator markey
There's also a new development in the PA-08 race. I'm sure Paige
Cognetti can make some political hay out of this since she has the primary to herself on the Dem side.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/03/10/unearthed-audio-appears-to-contradict-rep-rob-bresnahans-stock-trading-claims-00819366
don't know the track record of these guys but worth sharing i think
https://x.com/PpollingNumbers/status/2031691939490209848
New - Senate poll - Ohio
🔵 Brown 47%
🔴 Husted (Incumbent) 45%
On message #B - LV - 3/8
"On Message is Brad Todd’s joint. It is a Republican outlet. Obviously this comes before Republicans and Crypto PACs drop a huge payload on Brown"
https://x.com/EricMGarcia/status/2031729504800883070
Brown needs to use this quote in EVERY single attack ad on Husted.
And as we've seen recently, well-funded incumbents can be unseated by challengers with a fraction of the money.
And it was taken before Husted made this embarrassing comment: "People living in poverty are just not very, um, experienced at navigating the real world, right?"
https://x.com/SherrodBrown/status/2031473472845594741
According to Jake Sherman, it looks like Jim Clyburn will be retiring from Congress, citing the congressman having a "campaign announcement" scheduled for tomorrow morning at 10:30 a.m.