So here's a question for you all - in your opinion, what are the most impressive R -> D flips in special elections in Trump's second term?
Here are my top 3.
3) NH-HD-Carroll 7. Maybe I'm biased because this was in my state, but this was a hugely impressive win since this area has been solidly Republican for a long time, and Democrats didn't win any seats here even in 2018.
2) PA-SD-36. It's hard to get more historically Republican than Lancaster County, a place that has only voted Democratic for President once in the past 150 (!) years, and even that was 1) in the midst of LBJ's massive 1964 landslide, and 2) by a margin of less than 1 percent. And for the Lancaster suburbs (which used to be solidly Republican themselves) to now be blue enough to outvote the 80% Republican rural areas, is just insane.
1) TX-SD-9. Most of this district is rock-ribbed Republican suburbs, that haven't voted for a Democrat for any office in decades. This one gets the top spot not just because the district voted for Trump by 17 percent, but because the Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, won the election by a 15 percent margin. I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw this result.
If we’re including non-legislative special elections, definitely the Georgia Public Service Commission special elections. I agree with your top two in Texas and Pennsylvania.
Emily Gregory's victory in HD-87 last night is also a very big symbolic victory. You have a Democratic candidate prevailing in a district Trump won in 2024 by double digits, and she narrowly flipped it by over a point.
It shows that independents are breaking BIG for Democrats, as well as a decent slice of squishy Republican voters. It's similar to how Rehmet won his TX state Senate seat in a R-favorable district.
GA-Sen: There is bad blood between the Trump WH and Gov. Brian Kemp, for Kemp endorsing Derek Dooley in the Republican primary. Trump wanted to agree to endorse someone else, but Kemp went ahead all in for Dooley.
I have to question the Vote Vets ad for Josh Turek, not because I favor either candidate in that primary, but because of its attempt to connect his spina bifida with his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam.
Here is what the Cleveland Clinic says about likely causes of spina bifida:
Risk factors of spina bifida
Talk to your provider to learn more about whether or not you’re at risk of having a child with this condition. For example, your child may be at higher risk if you:
Don’t get enough folic acid
Take certain medications (like some antiseizure medications)
Have a condition like diabetes or obesity
Have a high fever or overheat during early pregnancy
Your risk also increases if you have the condition or you’ve already had a child with a neural tube defect (genetics).
If Vote Vets wants to support Turek with an ad campaign, that is its choice. However, spreading misinformation, if the ad is indeed making that connection with Agent Orange, is irresponsible.
Thank you for the links. I looked at all of them. While the V.A. does cover children of veterans exposed to Agent Orange who have spina bifida, I note that the first two references state that a clear connection has not yet been established. Yes, the children should be covered if there is even a chance that Agent Orange caused their condition, whether or not we have conclusive evidence. However, we should also acknowledge that there is still no definitive answer. Continued studies may establish such a link. We are not there yet.
We should actually have a healthcare system that would cover all children with this condition regardless of why they have it.
Again, I have no problems with Vote Vets making whatever endorsement it wishes, but for me, more compelling reasons would be statements about Turek's positions on the issues facing our country and why he is the best candidate to meet the moment.
unpopular take maybe: the va has suppressed treatment of so many diseases/illnesses that stem from combat operations that at this point, I'm not really mad if we highlight (even slightly incorrectly) the dangers of sending our young people to die overseas.
I believe it would increase support for greater VA funding, something that is sorely needed now that we do not have the great jon tester leading the charge for a VA veterans truly deserve
In this kind of blue-leaning environment, it's certainly possible Democrats could break the supermajority in the FL legislature (which would help Jolly, should he win, drive a hard bargain with his vetoes).
Is there any point in making a donation to Padilla Stout or is that just throwing money away?
Why would it be throwing it away?
Because if she has no chance of winning my limited funds can go elsewhere where it might actually make a difference.
Based on the amount of overperformance by Democratic candidates since last year, there's no reason to assume she has no chance.
So here's a question for you all - in your opinion, what are the most impressive R -> D flips in special elections in Trump's second term?
Here are my top 3.
3) NH-HD-Carroll 7. Maybe I'm biased because this was in my state, but this was a hugely impressive win since this area has been solidly Republican for a long time, and Democrats didn't win any seats here even in 2018.
2) PA-SD-36. It's hard to get more historically Republican than Lancaster County, a place that has only voted Democratic for President once in the past 150 (!) years, and even that was 1) in the midst of LBJ's massive 1964 landslide, and 2) by a margin of less than 1 percent. And for the Lancaster suburbs (which used to be solidly Republican themselves) to now be blue enough to outvote the 80% Republican rural areas, is just insane.
1) TX-SD-9. Most of this district is rock-ribbed Republican suburbs, that haven't voted for a Democrat for any office in decades. This one gets the top spot not just because the district voted for Trump by 17 percent, but because the Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, won the election by a 15 percent margin. I could hardly believe my eyes when I saw this result.
If we’re including non-legislative special elections, definitely the Georgia Public Service Commission special elections. I agree with your top two in Texas and Pennsylvania.
Emily Gregory's victory in HD-87 last night is also a very big symbolic victory. You have a Democratic candidate prevailing in a district Trump won in 2024 by double digits, and she narrowly flipped it by over a point.
It shows that independents are breaking BIG for Democrats, as well as a decent slice of squishy Republican voters. It's similar to how Rehmet won his TX state Senate seat in a R-favorable district.
Taylor Rehmet and Mike Zimmer in Iowa.
https://www.notus.org/republicans/brian-kemp-derek-dooley-trump-georgia-endorsement
GA-Sen: There is bad blood between the Trump WH and Gov. Brian Kemp, for Kemp endorsing Derek Dooley in the Republican primary. Trump wanted to agree to endorse someone else, but Kemp went ahead all in for Dooley.
Kemp has pretty good instincts usually so I’m baffled at him going to the mat for Dooley
I believe they are longtime friends from youth, not just like political or professional circles.
Kemp has good instincts on himself only. Not running this year to damage himself.
Look at his last appointment to the other seat.
You mean Kelly Loeffler? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
I don't know if he'll fare well against Warnock in 2028, should he run.
Not sure Warnock is running for POTUS? Since obviously Kemp is not setting his eyes on the Senate.
I thought Kemp would run for Senate. After Trump is out, the GOP is going to be radioactive for a bit.
I have to question the Vote Vets ad for Josh Turek, not because I favor either candidate in that primary, but because of its attempt to connect his spina bifida with his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam.
Here is what the Cleveland Clinic says about likely causes of spina bifida:
Risk factors of spina bifida
Talk to your provider to learn more about whether or not you’re at risk of having a child with this condition. For example, your child may be at higher risk if you:
Don’t get enough folic acid
Take certain medications (like some antiseizure medications)
Have a condition like diabetes or obesity
Have a high fever or overheat during early pregnancy
Your risk also increases if you have the condition or you’ve already had a child with a neural tube defect (genetics).
If Vote Vets wants to support Turek with an ad campaign, that is its choice. However, spreading misinformation, if the ad is indeed making that connection with Agent Orange, is irresponsible.
https://www.publichealth.va.gov/exposures/agentorange/birth-defects/spina-bifida.asp
https://embryo.asu.edu/pages/agent-orange-cause-spina-bifida
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19894129/
https://www.vetsprobono.org/impact-stories/article.815041-Vietnam_Veteran_Wins_Landmark_VA_Benefits_Case_for_Daughter_with_Spina_Bifi
https://sbfv.org.au/wp-content/uploads/Agents-Orange-Benefits-Act.pdf
Thank you for the links. I looked at all of them. While the V.A. does cover children of veterans exposed to Agent Orange who have spina bifida, I note that the first two references state that a clear connection has not yet been established. Yes, the children should be covered if there is even a chance that Agent Orange caused their condition, whether or not we have conclusive evidence. However, we should also acknowledge that there is still no definitive answer. Continued studies may establish such a link. We are not there yet.
We should actually have a healthcare system that would cover all children with this condition regardless of why they have it.
Again, I have no problems with Vote Vets making whatever endorsement it wishes, but for me, more compelling reasons would be statements about Turek's positions on the issues facing our country and why he is the best candidate to meet the moment.
Do you have a reason to think Turek has not been found eligible for these exact benefits and that's the basis of him making this claim?
I did not know that Turek made this claim. I focused on the Vote Vets ad.
unpopular take maybe: the va has suppressed treatment of so many diseases/illnesses that stem from combat operations that at this point, I'm not really mad if we highlight (even slightly incorrectly) the dangers of sending our young people to die overseas.
I believe it would increase support for greater VA funding, something that is sorely needed now that we do not have the great jon tester leading the charge for a VA veterans truly deserve
In this kind of blue-leaning environment, it's certainly possible Democrats could break the supermajority in the FL legislature (which would help Jolly, should he win, drive a hard bargain with his vetoes).
Is it just me or is anyone else still giddy about two of the three FL legislative seats flipping, plus Phil Berger conceding his loss?
It's pretty awesome but I'm not really giddy over anything right now. Recovering from RSV.
Oh my God I hope you’re doing all right. I know that’s pretty terrible.
Ugh so annoying to have the other TX-33 candidates endorse Allred.
Trump hits second term job approval low on RCP. -15.3
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating