Nunn saying that he won't run and Trump saying that he is running tells you all about the Republican party. When a man can't abide by his own decision and Trump tells him that he is running tells it all. If anyone had any doubts about the republicans having a mind of their own and being capable of making decisions of their own choice - that was proved wrong. The only one running the republican party is Trump and every Republican in Congress is ruled by Trump. The only thoughts that they can have are Trump's thoughts. Not a free world anymore, one that people can make informed decisions on their own, but have to do whatever their big daddy tells them to do. So sad, that they are so stupid that they can't even think for themselves and say "no, I make my own decisions." What a way to run a government or anything else. I know the democrats have to grow a spine, but so do the republicans.
Yeah assuming we get some kind of a wave IA-03 should be ripe enough to say: "You don't even want to be our representative, your choice to be on this debate stage is not even your own."
This in a competitive district where being "100% MAGA", whether true or not, is not the general election selling point that Trump and allies think it is...
Proportionally speaking, Hawaii has produced a lot of crappy Dems. Case has countless offenses, his views, his votes, his mouth, his selfish electoral decisions...for decades now. Tulsi Gabbard is one of the worst humans alive. Her father was on the frontlines against gay marriage. Kai Kahele worked remotely so he could work as a commercial pilot on the side (imagine if a Dem were caught doing something like that today, with the margins and what's at stake). David Ige's administration scared the holy shit out of every single person in his entire state. Abercrombie spent most of his terms as one of the least popular governors in the country. I've liked Brian Schatz in the past, but his vote to fund the Trump government was an obvious tack to the nonexistent middle to help him become Dem Leader, apparently one not much different than Chuck Schumer. LOVE Mazie Hirono.
Strong position for Mamdani considering this is a full general election electorate being polled and indicates a lot of non-Mamdani voting Democrats in the primary and Independents who didn’t vote are backing him now. It also suggests that even if 1 of the 3 non-Mamdani candidates dropped out, it still likely wouldn’t be enough to beat him.
For their gambit to have any chance of success, 2 of the 3 need to drop out. Pretty clear Mamdani should focus on Brooklyn and Queens as his two weakest areas for the general election. Both places with large groups of working class minority voters, who tended to back Cuomo and are likely more moderate than he is. Work to do for him and his campaign, but a great start.
Don't know enough to argue his full career but the "Cuomo not the homo" thing is a stain. His 84 convention speech (wasn't around but took the time to listen) was great though also shows how little convention speeches effect the outcome of an election.
"Fred Dicker, who is working on a biography of Governor Andrew Cuomo, interviewed Neal Barsky, the creator of the documentary Koch. Dicker said there was “no physical evidence” that such signs ever existed, and asked Barsky whether the story about them could be “a canard.” (Investigative journalist Wayne Barrett has also said he’s never seen physical evidence that the signs existed, or met anyone who has.)
"Barsky, in a tweet after the interview, said, “I’m pretty sure they existed; maybe not as many as some say.”"
It arguably made Mario Cuomo's career as a serious national politician, which manifested itself in his "Hamlet On the Hudson" act: in the later 80s and early 90s he was constantly touted for president and played along with the speculation to some degree, but of course never actually ran and maybe never really wanted to.
For a more satisfying example of a Democratic convention keynote launching a national career, there's of course Barack Obama.
Yeah the 2004 speech was my first introduction to him as a teenager. I didn't think he could win in a country that just reelected W after the Iowa caucuses then I was sold. My grandmother often remarked that he was the best politician/speaker she had heard since the 60s.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t NYC like 66% Democratic? So 32% of 66% is like 18% of the general electorate. Which isn’t nothing, but unless you think Republicans will shift from Silwa to the one other candidate (in this hypothetical), it seems pretty clear that only 1 of the 3 dropping out won’t be enough. 2 of the 3 must for there to be any chance as it sits right now.
That doesn’t include the possibility Mamdani’s campaign gains support away from the non-Mamdani candidates, which judging by his volunteer army and shock upset in the primary, I wouldn’t exactly bet against that either. Of course no candidate can actually drop their name from the ballot, but they can stop campaigning and endorse someone else.
I do think that plenty of Republicans would vote for Adams or Cuomo to counter Mamdani in a General Election, but only if one of them becomes the clear alternative to Mamdani. There's no particular love for Silva. In fact, I suspect most NYC Republicans would prefer Adams to Silva...unclear if that's true of Cuomo. Overall, I'd consider Adams to be the bigger danger to Mamdani than Cuomo.
The Epstein issue is clearly hurting Trump, AG Pam Bondi, and Kash Patel and Dan Bongino of the FBI, with the MAGA world – and it’s not going away. That may well impact the overall political discourse and thus elections.
The latest ad from The Lincoln Project about the unreleased Epstein Files is terrific, entirely in line with the Drudge Report, and well worth sharing far and wide!
The best part is that there probably isn’t a file showing what MAGA thinks it would show (and one never existed) but they hyped it up so much on the campaign trail they can’t now back down
They think that both Bill and Hillary Clinton, plus Barack Obama, are in the Epstein files. Bill is on it, but Hillary or Obama aren't. Nor the Bidens for that matter.
QAnon and MAGA losing their shit over FDJT's coverup of the Epstein files is GOLD for Democratic opposition groups. Wedge it like they did with Benghazi.
Laura Loomer, a leading anti-intellectual of the MAGA blogosphere, is calling for special counsel to investigate Epstein files. I’m sure AG Bondi and DJT are thrilled about this development. Pass the popcorn, please!
Hope Trump keeps on continuing doing what he’s doing, especially to the conspiracy theory nutcases like Alex Jones. Still trying to decipher why the whole Epstein fiasco is making him barf. Oh wait, it’s Jones’ base.
Although I am most definitely not being complacent, getting conspiracy theorists pissed is certainly not what I was anticipating heading to 2026.
Given the loyalty/purity tests the left is accused of giving to Democrats (sometimes justly), curious if they apply to Andrew Cuomo's independent bid? Did he find a line to run on or will he make his own party line? The creepy rejected nepo sex pests who left office in disgrace party?
“Our goal is to create a situation in which the political divide no longer runs between the AfD and the other political currents, but rather one in which a bourgeois-conservative camp and a radicalizing left-wing camp face each other, comparable to the situation in the U.S.,” reads an internal party paper, seen by POLITICO. The aim, according to the strategy, is to create a “duel between two irreconcilably opposed camps.”
Edit: I don't see this happening because Germany is a free market Social Democracy with strong safety nets not end stage capitalism.
I am implying that some progressives are spending more time attacking the Democratic establishment than they do attacking Trump and therefore they aided Trump in his rise to power much as Ernst Thalmann did when he refused to work with the more centrist coalition to stop Hitler in Germany. Some people can't see beyond their own ideological urinating contest to realize that we can't afford infighting over ideology when stopping Trump should be our only priority right now.
Regardless, Thalmann was a literal communist so I would be careful with using him as an example of what you think factions of the left are doing.
Also that's a bit rich considering multiple centrist Democrats have refused to endorse Mamdani in a mayor's race with a non-zero chance of electing Adams or Cuomo.
That Cuomo is running in the general after losing the primary? This one is a bit indisputable.
That he's part of the moderate/establishment wing of the party and has had support from them? Not as purely objective as the former point but again I would find dispute on this one difficult to imagine.
Implied: maybe you disagree that the example of Cuomo is relevant? Itself tying into the next part, that this goes both ways at best? Only one data point is fair to dispute, but there's no real shortage of challenges to progressives with establishment support. Cori Bush and Bowman were both challenged and defeated by establishment supported candidates. Summer Lee continues to be challenged in the primary by establishment candidates every cycle. Omar doesn't get challenged every cycle but she does often enough and with lots of establishment money thrown in when it happens. There was the other case in NY where the establishment backed the incumbent mayor after he lost the democratic primary to a progressive. And more...
Now you can point to some of them having issues, and yes, that's fair. But compare the establishment treatment of them (try to run out of town immediately) with the treatment of someone like Menendez who was plagued by his corruption for years and years and was only opposed after it reached a ridiculous level of damage.
Circling back to NYC, even without Cuomo it's clear that there's a lot of the establishment that hates th idea of running Mamdani as our candidate and would give just about anything (other, apparently, than supporting a non sex pest) to change that.
Again, I find this one hard to dispute.
That really only leaves my last point, that I think in balance things fall more on the moderate/establishment wing than on the progressive wing. And I will grant this one is the one that falls the most to opinion... But if that's the only disagreement, I find it odd and disappointing for someone to pick that as the deal breaker for having a discussion at all.
Nader 2000, Bernie or Bust, Stein 2016, 2020, 2024, and probably 2028. Don't vote for Kamala because of that issue we can't talk about, Cenk Uyger Jimmy Dore, Sam Seder and Kyle Kulinski's entire career- I could go on and on on ways that the left have sandbagged the Democratic party for years and I could talk about the damage done to immigrants, racial minorities, LGBT people, the poor and on and on but let's concentrate only on the New York Mayoral race. Look, I know that some people here have fallen in love with Mamdani but I also know that candidates like him would get wiped out if they were to run statewide in essential states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Check out the election results in Allegany County, Pa (Pittsburgh) in 2022 and 2024 where every Democratic candidate up and down the ticket won by around 25 percent until you got to the two DSA candidates who were the nominees for County Prosecutor and County Executive. Both of those candidates ran over 20 percent behind the rest of the ticket. I know he is not very popular here but in 2022 John Fetterman outran Summer Lee, the progressive candidate for the house by almost 20 percent. These are verifiable facts. I wish we had a more progressive electorate than we do but we have the voters that we have. Constantly badmouthing the party day in and day out online and running candidates who are out of the political mainstream has not only hurt the party, but has seriously annoyed people who get kicked in the teeth every time the GOP wins.
Fetterman ran as a progressive in 2022. He did not become conservative until much later. And Jimmy Dore isn't even on the left anymore -- he's become an anti-vaxxer. Also, plenty on the left voted for Kamala -- I know I did. Unless you have evidence that the majority of the left did not support Kamala (and I'm talking votes, not "prominent leftist didn't endorse Kamala") I do not buy it.
Also, I'm fairly sure Mamdani wasn't brought up to argue he'd do well elsewhere -- he was brought up to argue that you are being hypocritical in accusing the left of being insufficiently loyal to the party, when the center is refusing to support their own nominee solely because said nominee is a progressive (or because he is a Muslim). This is a frequent problem with some on the center -- they accuse the left of disloyalty to the party, then when the left wins that goes out the window because "they're far left!" or some crap. (Not all the center, mind you -- Joe Walsh just came out and attacked Dean Phillips for saying that the left shouldn't be in the party, and some of the Dem establishment in NY have indeed endorsed Mamdani -- I'm talking grifter types like Phillips, Axelrod, the mega-donors, etc..)
Tipped, but no-one is accusing the _majority_ of the left of not supporting Harris. It's always a minority that votes for the Greens or does not vote, isn't it?
"Look, I know that some people here have fallen in love with Mamdani but I also know that candidates like him would get wiped out if they were to run statewide in essential states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
So let's not support them in primaries when they run for state-wide positions in PA and WI.
90 percent of Bernie supporters voted for Hillary. Do you how many of 2008 Clintonians voted for Obama?
YouGov found that 24 percent of those who voted for Clinton during the 2008 primary backed McCain over Democratic nominee Obama in the general election.
John Fetterman ran as a progressive populist and this is a verfiable fact. He ran on Medicare for All, weed legalization, filibuster elimination, protecting fracking, anti BDS pro 2 state etc and had been endorsed by Bernie Sanders twice in the past and had endorsed him twice in return. Sanders did not endorse in 2022 because Kenyatta was also running as a progressive. Fetterman absolutely needs to be primaried in 2028 and I am going to support Conor Lamb who's a real party line Dem. Lamb supports buying assault rifles but I am against such imposing cultural purity tests.
Chris Deluzio, Sanders endorsed Progressive caucus whip ran 2 points ahead of Harris in a Pennsylvania swing district which used to be held by Lamb. Now to be fair, he's a pragmatic progressive, emphasizes "economic patriotism" and is not radical.
I think 2000 is enough electoral generations in the past to not be relevant for the current discussion which is talking about recent behavior. But hey I hate everyone that was on the Nader train too, so make of that what you will.
For 2016, 2020, 2024, I'd absolutely agree on 2016 and 2024 for voters, but not 2020. There were five times as many third party votes from the right as there were from the left in 2020. There is no credible way you can count 2020 for this purpose. Even for 2024 there were twice as many conservative third party votes as progressive third party votes; although the discussion there is primarily absenteeism and not third party voting, it's worth highlighting that some level of not voting for the major party candidate is baked into each party's coalition — roughly 0.5-1% of the total electorate by the looks of it in modern history.
I find the difference between your examples and mine is telling. In 2016 and 2024 there was no organized effort from mainstream progressive voices to vote third party or not vote at all. Sanders disavowed the "Bernie or bust" groups, he endorsed Clinton, endorsed Biden, and endorsed Harris. Who is the most prominent progressive individual or organization to endorse these efforts? As far as I know it's all cranks and influencers. Contrast with my examples where we have little-known people like Bill Clinton endorsing Cuomo. Or Hillary Clinton endorsing Latimer. Or Omar's primary opponents being endorsed by the mayor of Minneapolis and a former MN secretary of state and another former state AG. And there's all the AIPAC endorsements and money in there, but I don't want to delve too deeply on that subject except to highlight said organization's establishment and moderate state.
To the best of my knowledge the most prominent endorsement a progressive challenger has gotten against a non-scandal plagued incumbent is Ayanna Pressley. She was endorsed by Mara Healey when Healey was the AG of MA. Problem there is that Healey is herself establishment.
Yes, we shouldn't run Mamdani everywhere. He is, however, (1) our nominee and (2) the nominee for NYC, a rather blue leaning place. Don't strawman on the topic of him.
But step back a moment. You got some examples. That's great! Well, not great in the sense that they exist to have examples, but it's good that we all have some agreed upon basics of what's going on. I never said that there is *none* of this happening from progressives. I said that, at worst, there is an equal amount from both sides and that I'd argue there's more of it from the moderates. You never addressed this, you addressed an argument I never made.
While Sanders did endorse Clinton, he refused to do so until well after it was clear he had lost and the primaries were over. He had ample opportunities to denounce the "rigged primary" lie during the campaign. He had plenty of chances to say "the results weren't what we wanted, but they were fair and that means we fight harder." He wouldn't say or do that. His endorsement was half hearted at best and seemed more self serving than anything. Especially since again he refused to try to temper down his most zealous fans.
The reality is as Mitt Romney learned in 2012, there is no Etch a Sketch for the general election.
People like Rahm Emanuel, Torres and Philips; centrist Democratic strategists and commentators thrash Dems brand more than they attack Republicans by repeatedly invoking toxicity, bathrooms, classrooms, weakness and wokeness which other Democrats who appear on cable news like Ro Khanna, Klobuchar then have to answer.
It's a really imperfect analogy because we don't have political coalitions in the US. There is decent evidence that left-wing voters staying home may have cost us the 2024 election, but that's very different than what happened at the end of the Weimar Republic, where the KPD refused to join an anti-Nazi government, leading to Hitler's election as chancellor. There isn't an elected Democrat who has called for progressives to withhold their support for the Democratic leadership in congress, for example.
There is just one poll conducted by a Muslim cultural Institute along with YouGov which says that. Gaza wasn't even in the top 10 issues polled in all surveys. Nate Cohn, David Shor Blue Rose Research and Pew Research's individual reports say that with higher turnout, Trump would have won a landslide.
Not being a top ten issue overall doesn't exclude it from being very important to a small segment of the electorate. Indeed that's how "wedge" issues work broadly speaking. I agree that the evidence is somewhat conflicted and open to multiple interpretations, but that isn't a particularly strong point against the case.
No-one could really be the equivalent to the leader of a huge party controlled by Stalin, though. The self-styled left-wingers you mention are a bunch of lesser players.
New: Memo from Democratic ad firm Van Ness Creative Strategies first shared with Semafor says the party's leaders are still failing to communicate online. The firm says if Democratic elected officials still feel uncomfortable posting "now is a great time to retire."
Interesting that they call Mamdani's campaign "extremely online". Yes, he went viral online in a big way, but he also spent a lot of time talking to people in person, and it's been pointed out that he had a huge number of volunteers canvassing. So while it's obviously crucial to appeal to people online, no-one should have the illusion that in-person campaigning has become unimportant.
It seems like to lesson from Mamdani is to be in-person everywhere and film and post it so you’re online everywhere. My 17 year-old son learned about Mamdani before I did because Mamdani’s content showed up my son’s feed and we live in the Midwest.
Though Trump has yet to tip his (small) hands, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has come down squarely on the side of the incumbent, John Cornyn, in his primary race against Ken Paxton for Senate from Texas. Responding to State Senator Angela Paxton's announcement that she was suing her husband, the state attorney general, for divorce, NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez stated: “What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time.” However, Paxton is leading Cornyn by a wide margin in the polls. Spousal abuse is no impediment to placing a MAGA miscreant in office.
In regards to Alabama, and really a lot of other races, it feels like a "Navy Seal Veteran" is running in about 10% of every race out there. I'm exaggerating, but a lot of them seem to be seeking office.
The basically final ad spending for each AZ07 candidate in the Democratic primary. Along with data showing very high turnout, likely to surpass both 2022 and 2024 general election primaries.
We worked closely with Sam Almy, the data guru at Uplift Campaigns, to do the math for the returned ballots in the CD7 special election — specifically Democratic ballots — up until last Thursday.
So far, 42,137 Democratic Primary ballots have been returned. That’s 4,500 more than 2024 and about 500 away from 2022’s figure.
Seeing that returns are higher than 2024 does seem to suggest that there is more enthusiasm in the Democratic base, he added.
And the interest goes beyond the base. A lot more independents asked for a Democratic ballot this year, compared to the 2024 primary.
Last year, 1,875 returns were from independent voters casting a Democratic ballot.
This year, 5,423 returns are from independent voters casting a Democratic ballot.
I'm guessing that the differences in ad spending aren't so great as to make the difference in the votes. All 3 candidates would have gotten their messages out.
You’re probably right, but I do think it’s interesting the person who raised the most in the special election primary campaign spent the least on ads (Hernandez).
Has Clyburn retracted his endorsement of Cuomo "on character" now that he has ditched the party? Or is he fine with him ditching the Democratic party post-double digit loss. Does "vote blue no matter who" apply when they don't get their way?
what's the intel on the PA Supreme Court race? I'm just beginning to tune in. 3 Dem justices, all simply need to win a retention election? any serious threat or organizing being done around them? critical for a majority of the court?
fwiw my group got pretty heavily involved in both Judge Janet and Judge Susan races in WI, both fundraising and phone banking.
Nunn saying that he won't run and Trump saying that he is running tells you all about the Republican party. When a man can't abide by his own decision and Trump tells him that he is running tells it all. If anyone had any doubts about the republicans having a mind of their own and being capable of making decisions of their own choice - that was proved wrong. The only one running the republican party is Trump and every Republican in Congress is ruled by Trump. The only thoughts that they can have are Trump's thoughts. Not a free world anymore, one that people can make informed decisions on their own, but have to do whatever their big daddy tells them to do. So sad, that they are so stupid that they can't even think for themselves and say "no, I make my own decisions." What a way to run a government or anything else. I know the democrats have to grow a spine, but so do the republicans.
"And one sphincter to rule them all."
Yeah assuming we get some kind of a wave IA-03 should be ripe enough to say: "You don't even want to be our representative, your choice to be on this debate stage is not even your own."
This in a competitive district where being "100% MAGA", whether true or not, is not the general election selling point that Trump and allies think it is...
https://x.com/admcrlsn/status/1944729943021166672
Hawaii's conservative Democrat Ed Case will probably get a primary challenge.
New - Congress poll - Pennsylvania #10
🔵 Stelson 46%
🔴 Perry (Inc) 43%
Public policy #C (🔵) - RV - 7/11
Good, Case sucks and I say that being fairly moderate. Hawaii can do much better
Proportionally speaking, Hawaii has produced a lot of crappy Dems. Case has countless offenses, his views, his votes, his mouth, his selfish electoral decisions...for decades now. Tulsi Gabbard is one of the worst humans alive. Her father was on the frontlines against gay marriage. Kai Kahele worked remotely so he could work as a commercial pilot on the side (imagine if a Dem were caught doing something like that today, with the margins and what's at stake). David Ige's administration scared the holy shit out of every single person in his entire state. Abercrombie spent most of his terms as one of the least popular governors in the country. I've liked Brian Schatz in the past, but his vote to fund the Trump government was an obvious tack to the nonexistent middle to help him become Dem Leader, apparently one not much different than Chuck Schumer. LOVE Mazie Hirono.
One-party states (and Hawaii is an extreme version of that even by lopsided U.S. standards) with insular politics tend to produce a lot of duds
Hirono is amazing. I hope she's around a while longer.
Brian Schatz has done no wrong. He's sane and has a moral compass.
Voting for the Trump funding bill was doing wrong, as far as many Democrats are concerned.
And we all know why he did it, which makes it doubly wrong.
Literally any Dem is an upgrade
And the PA-10 rematch is on...
https://nitter.poast.org/JanelleStelson/status/1944742762072424799#m
Sounds good; she came close the last time.
In the past, I thought Justin Douglas would make a good candidate; now, I think he might end up being Fetterman Jr.
There's another rematch in Iowa. Rebecca Cooke, a Blue Dog and New Dem, was recently endorsed by Bernie Sanders. She's running in a light red seat.
Cooke is WI-03, correct?
Yes, and apparently, Sanders is currently the most popular politician among Independents after Obama which is why she sought his endorsement.
Ed Fucking Case is still in Congress?
Cuomo doesn't know when to take a hint. Mamdani is going to beat him like a drum.
NYC poll Mamdani up by 16. https://x.com/ryanodonnellpa/status/1944739141712773153
Strong position for Mamdani considering this is a full general election electorate being polled and indicates a lot of non-Mamdani voting Democrats in the primary and Independents who didn’t vote are backing him now. It also suggests that even if 1 of the 3 non-Mamdani candidates dropped out, it still likely wouldn’t be enough to beat him.
For their gambit to have any chance of success, 2 of the 3 need to drop out. Pretty clear Mamdani should focus on Brooklyn and Queens as his two weakest areas for the general election. Both places with large groups of working class minority voters, who tended to back Cuomo and are likely more moderate than he is. Work to do for him and his campaign, but a great start.
Hope Mandani clears 50 and crushes Cuomo for good. Also "Fight and deliver" what a joke.
Cuomo neglects to mention in the party name that he's for fighting democrats in order to deliver to republicans.
In other words, continuing the strategy and policy Andrew Cuomo implemented as Governor of New York.
Perhaps it’s impermissible to say, but I really wish we could bury Andrew and bring Mario back to life. Mario was a politician of integrity!
Don't know enough to argue his full career but the "Cuomo not the homo" thing is a stain. His 84 convention speech (wasn't around but took the time to listen) was great though also shows how little convention speeches effect the outcome of an election.
Prevalent or a canard?
"Fred Dicker, who is working on a biography of Governor Andrew Cuomo, interviewed Neal Barsky, the creator of the documentary Koch. Dicker said there was “no physical evidence” that such signs ever existed, and asked Barsky whether the story about them could be “a canard.” (Investigative journalist Wayne Barrett has also said he’s never seen physical evidence that the signs existed, or met anyone who has.)
"Barsky, in a tweet after the interview, said, “I’m pretty sure they existed; maybe not as many as some say.”"
https://www.politico.com/states/new-york/city-hall/story/2013/03/mario-cuomo-was-disappointed-homo-signs-or-not-007262
(Granted, that article is from 2013. No idea what’s come to light since then.)
Appreciate the response, thanks.
I'm pretty sure there was a whispering campaign, at least; no?
The article hints at that.
It arguably made Mario Cuomo's career as a serious national politician, which manifested itself in his "Hamlet On the Hudson" act: in the later 80s and early 90s he was constantly touted for president and played along with the speculation to some degree, but of course never actually ran and maybe never really wanted to.
For a more satisfying example of a Democratic convention keynote launching a national career, there's of course Barack Obama.
Yeah the 2004 speech was my first introduction to him as a teenager. I didn't think he could win in a country that just reelected W after the Iowa caucuses then I was sold. My grandmother often remarked that he was the best politician/speaker she had heard since the 60s.
It's hard to know what Mario Cuomo would have done with a Democratic State Senate. I liked him, though.
The Upper West and Upper East Sides of Manhattan were weak spots for Mamdani.
Dropping out isn't a thing. We already know who will be on the ballot; the only question is how hard everyone campaigns.
Cuomo still getting 32% of Dems. If he or Adams drop out, this becomes roughly a toss-up race. Mamdani better hope they both stay in....
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t NYC like 66% Democratic? So 32% of 66% is like 18% of the general electorate. Which isn’t nothing, but unless you think Republicans will shift from Silwa to the one other candidate (in this hypothetical), it seems pretty clear that only 1 of the 3 dropping out won’t be enough. 2 of the 3 must for there to be any chance as it sits right now.
That doesn’t include the possibility Mamdani’s campaign gains support away from the non-Mamdani candidates, which judging by his volunteer army and shock upset in the primary, I wouldn’t exactly bet against that either. Of course no candidate can actually drop their name from the ballot, but they can stop campaigning and endorse someone else.
There is also the possibility that Mamdani faceplants in the general election.
That said, I agree, if Mamdani is really on 40% in a five-way race, he's probably going to win no matter what.
I do think that plenty of Republicans would vote for Adams or Cuomo to counter Mamdani in a General Election, but only if one of them becomes the clear alternative to Mamdani. There's no particular love for Silva. In fact, I suspect most NYC Republicans would prefer Adams to Silva...unclear if that's true of Cuomo. Overall, I'd consider Adams to be the bigger danger to Mamdani than Cuomo.
Neither will likely drop out; they're both criminals—charged or not—with massive egos.
Any link to the full polling results?
68% of the vote under 45%
Young NYCers are certainly believing in Mamdani and his focus on cost of living.
The Epstein issue is clearly hurting Trump, AG Pam Bondi, and Kash Patel and Dan Bongino of the FBI, with the MAGA world – and it’s not going away. That may well impact the overall political discourse and thus elections.
The latest ad from The Lincoln Project about the unreleased Epstein Files is terrific, entirely in line with the Drudge Report, and well worth sharing far and wide!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzwEQVJ4gOA
https://drudgereport.com/
The best part is that there probably isn’t a file showing what MAGA thinks it would show (and one never existed) but they hyped it up so much on the campaign trail they can’t now back down
They think that both Bill and Hillary Clinton, plus Barack Obama, are in the Epstein files. Bill is on it, but Hillary or Obama aren't. Nor the Bidens for that matter.
QAnon and MAGA losing their shit over FDJT's coverup of the Epstein files is GOLD for Democratic opposition groups. Wedge it like they did with Benghazi.
Laura Loomer, a leading anti-intellectual of the MAGA blogosphere, is calling for special counsel to investigate Epstein files. I’m sure AG Bondi and DJT are thrilled about this development. Pass the popcorn, please!
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5399594-trump-epstein-laura-loomer-bondi/
Hope Trump keeps on continuing doing what he’s doing, especially to the conspiracy theory nutcases like Alex Jones. Still trying to decipher why the whole Epstein fiasco is making him barf. Oh wait, it’s Jones’ base.
Although I am most definitely not being complacent, getting conspiracy theorists pissed is certainly not what I was anticipating heading to 2026.
What a pleasant surprise!
Pass the nachos, please! I’m not fond of popcorn.
Given the loyalty/purity tests the left is accused of giving to Democrats (sometimes justly), curious if they apply to Andrew Cuomo's independent bid? Did he find a line to run on or will he make his own party line? The creepy rejected nepo sex pests who left office in disgrace party?
He created his own party.
Saw it upthread but thanks. Still think creepy rejected nepo sex pests who left office in disgrace party would be a more suitable fit.
Any bets on whether or not New York passes a sore loser law as a result of this election?
You mean to have no fusion voting? I'd say no, because that's so ingrained in New York politics.
Couldn't both co-exist? I haven't thought it through.
They could perhaps prohibit people from creating new parties unilaterally or after declaring a run in one party, but I don't see it.
German far right’s strategy for seizing power: Foment US-style polarization
The approach appears to be inspired in part by Donald Trump’s attacks on the left in the United States.
https://www.politico.eu/article/german-far-right-strategy-seizing-power-foment-us-style-polarization/
“Our goal is to create a situation in which the political divide no longer runs between the AfD and the other political currents, but rather one in which a bourgeois-conservative camp and a radicalizing left-wing camp face each other, comparable to the situation in the U.S.,” reads an internal party paper, seen by POLITICO. The aim, according to the strategy, is to create a “duel between two irreconcilably opposed camps.”
Edit: I don't see this happening because Germany is a free market Social Democracy with strong safety nets not end stage capitalism.
How very Weimar of them.
And we have plenty of US politicians auditioning for the role of Ernst Thalmann.
Are you implying that US progressives are communists?
I am implying that some progressives are spending more time attacking the Democratic establishment than they do attacking Trump and therefore they aided Trump in his rise to power much as Ernst Thalmann did when he refused to work with the more centrist coalition to stop Hitler in Germany. Some people can't see beyond their own ideological urinating contest to realize that we can't afford infighting over ideology when stopping Trump should be our only priority right now.
Regardless, Thalmann was a literal communist so I would be careful with using him as an example of what you think factions of the left are doing.
Also that's a bit rich considering multiple centrist Democrats have refused to endorse Mamdani in a mayor's race with a non-zero chance of electing Adams or Cuomo.
It's not the progressive wing of the party that's running someone who lost the primary in NYC's mayoral election.
At best this comparison goes both ways. I'd argue that in net it's more the establishment/moderate wing that is contributing more to infighting.
If you honestly believe this then there is no point in continuing to argue with you.
Which part do you disagree with?
That Cuomo is running in the general after losing the primary? This one is a bit indisputable.
That he's part of the moderate/establishment wing of the party and has had support from them? Not as purely objective as the former point but again I would find dispute on this one difficult to imagine.
Implied: maybe you disagree that the example of Cuomo is relevant? Itself tying into the next part, that this goes both ways at best? Only one data point is fair to dispute, but there's no real shortage of challenges to progressives with establishment support. Cori Bush and Bowman were both challenged and defeated by establishment supported candidates. Summer Lee continues to be challenged in the primary by establishment candidates every cycle. Omar doesn't get challenged every cycle but she does often enough and with lots of establishment money thrown in when it happens. There was the other case in NY where the establishment backed the incumbent mayor after he lost the democratic primary to a progressive. And more...
Now you can point to some of them having issues, and yes, that's fair. But compare the establishment treatment of them (try to run out of town immediately) with the treatment of someone like Menendez who was plagued by his corruption for years and years and was only opposed after it reached a ridiculous level of damage.
Circling back to NYC, even without Cuomo it's clear that there's a lot of the establishment that hates th idea of running Mamdani as our candidate and would give just about anything (other, apparently, than supporting a non sex pest) to change that.
Again, I find this one hard to dispute.
That really only leaves my last point, that I think in balance things fall more on the moderate/establishment wing than on the progressive wing. And I will grant this one is the one that falls the most to opinion... But if that's the only disagreement, I find it odd and disappointing for someone to pick that as the deal breaker for having a discussion at all.
Spot on, here. It's always "Vote Blue, No Matter Who" But not like that.
Nader 2000, Bernie or Bust, Stein 2016, 2020, 2024, and probably 2028. Don't vote for Kamala because of that issue we can't talk about, Cenk Uyger Jimmy Dore, Sam Seder and Kyle Kulinski's entire career- I could go on and on on ways that the left have sandbagged the Democratic party for years and I could talk about the damage done to immigrants, racial minorities, LGBT people, the poor and on and on but let's concentrate only on the New York Mayoral race. Look, I know that some people here have fallen in love with Mamdani but I also know that candidates like him would get wiped out if they were to run statewide in essential states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Check out the election results in Allegany County, Pa (Pittsburgh) in 2022 and 2024 where every Democratic candidate up and down the ticket won by around 25 percent until you got to the two DSA candidates who were the nominees for County Prosecutor and County Executive. Both of those candidates ran over 20 percent behind the rest of the ticket. I know he is not very popular here but in 2022 John Fetterman outran Summer Lee, the progressive candidate for the house by almost 20 percent. These are verifiable facts. I wish we had a more progressive electorate than we do but we have the voters that we have. Constantly badmouthing the party day in and day out online and running candidates who are out of the political mainstream has not only hurt the party, but has seriously annoyed people who get kicked in the teeth every time the GOP wins.
Fetterman ran as a progressive in 2022. He did not become conservative until much later. And Jimmy Dore isn't even on the left anymore -- he's become an anti-vaxxer. Also, plenty on the left voted for Kamala -- I know I did. Unless you have evidence that the majority of the left did not support Kamala (and I'm talking votes, not "prominent leftist didn't endorse Kamala") I do not buy it.
Also, I'm fairly sure Mamdani wasn't brought up to argue he'd do well elsewhere -- he was brought up to argue that you are being hypocritical in accusing the left of being insufficiently loyal to the party, when the center is refusing to support their own nominee solely because said nominee is a progressive (or because he is a Muslim). This is a frequent problem with some on the center -- they accuse the left of disloyalty to the party, then when the left wins that goes out the window because "they're far left!" or some crap. (Not all the center, mind you -- Joe Walsh just came out and attacked Dean Phillips for saying that the left shouldn't be in the party, and some of the Dem establishment in NY have indeed endorsed Mamdani -- I'm talking grifter types like Phillips, Axelrod, the mega-donors, etc..)
Tipped, but no-one is accusing the _majority_ of the left of not supporting Harris. It's always a minority that votes for the Greens or does not vote, isn't it?
"Look, I know that some people here have fallen in love with Mamdani but I also know that candidates like him would get wiped out if they were to run statewide in essential states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin."
So let's not support them in primaries when they run for state-wide positions in PA and WI.
As a member of the left, I feel like most of that is a fair comment.
90 percent of Bernie supporters voted for Hillary. Do you how many of 2008 Clintonians voted for Obama?
YouGov found that 24 percent of those who voted for Clinton during the 2008 primary backed McCain over Democratic nominee Obama in the general election.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanders%E2%80%93Trump_voters Sanders-Trump voters were socially conservative, economically left and not necessarily Democrats according to later studies.
Notable Sanders-Trump voters ==
• [[Anna Khachiyan]]
• [[Dasha Nekrasova]]
• [[Joe Rogan]]
• [[M.I.A. (rapper)|M.I.A.]]
• [[Tulsi Gabbard]]
Rogan endorsed Ron Paul in 2012.
The rest voted for McCain? That many?
John Fetterman ran as a progressive populist and this is a verfiable fact. He ran on Medicare for All, weed legalization, filibuster elimination, protecting fracking, anti BDS pro 2 state etc and had been endorsed by Bernie Sanders twice in the past and had endorsed him twice in return. Sanders did not endorse in 2022 because Kenyatta was also running as a progressive. Fetterman absolutely needs to be primaried in 2028 and I am going to support Conor Lamb who's a real party line Dem. Lamb supports buying assault rifles but I am against such imposing cultural purity tests.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Fetterman#Political_positions
Chris Deluzio, Sanders endorsed Progressive caucus whip ran 2 points ahead of Harris in a Pennsylvania swing district which used to be held by Lamb. Now to be fair, he's a pragmatic progressive, emphasizes "economic patriotism" and is not radical.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_17th_congressional_district
Summer Lee underperformed Harris by 2.5 percentage points.
I think 2000 is enough electoral generations in the past to not be relevant for the current discussion which is talking about recent behavior. But hey I hate everyone that was on the Nader train too, so make of that what you will.
For 2016, 2020, 2024, I'd absolutely agree on 2016 and 2024 for voters, but not 2020. There were five times as many third party votes from the right as there were from the left in 2020. There is no credible way you can count 2020 for this purpose. Even for 2024 there were twice as many conservative third party votes as progressive third party votes; although the discussion there is primarily absenteeism and not third party voting, it's worth highlighting that some level of not voting for the major party candidate is baked into each party's coalition — roughly 0.5-1% of the total electorate by the looks of it in modern history.
I find the difference between your examples and mine is telling. In 2016 and 2024 there was no organized effort from mainstream progressive voices to vote third party or not vote at all. Sanders disavowed the "Bernie or bust" groups, he endorsed Clinton, endorsed Biden, and endorsed Harris. Who is the most prominent progressive individual or organization to endorse these efforts? As far as I know it's all cranks and influencers. Contrast with my examples where we have little-known people like Bill Clinton endorsing Cuomo. Or Hillary Clinton endorsing Latimer. Or Omar's primary opponents being endorsed by the mayor of Minneapolis and a former MN secretary of state and another former state AG. And there's all the AIPAC endorsements and money in there, but I don't want to delve too deeply on that subject except to highlight said organization's establishment and moderate state.
To the best of my knowledge the most prominent endorsement a progressive challenger has gotten against a non-scandal plagued incumbent is Ayanna Pressley. She was endorsed by Mara Healey when Healey was the AG of MA. Problem there is that Healey is herself establishment.
Yes, we shouldn't run Mamdani everywhere. He is, however, (1) our nominee and (2) the nominee for NYC, a rather blue leaning place. Don't strawman on the topic of him.
But step back a moment. You got some examples. That's great! Well, not great in the sense that they exist to have examples, but it's good that we all have some agreed upon basics of what's going on. I never said that there is *none* of this happening from progressives. I said that, at worst, there is an equal amount from both sides and that I'd argue there's more of it from the moderates. You never addressed this, you addressed an argument I never made.
Good post. I think we should distinguish between supporting candidates in a primary and supporting non-Democrats in a general election, though.
While Sanders did endorse Clinton, he refused to do so until well after it was clear he had lost and the primaries were over. He had ample opportunities to denounce the "rigged primary" lie during the campaign. He had plenty of chances to say "the results weren't what we wanted, but they were fair and that means we fight harder." He wouldn't say or do that. His endorsement was half hearted at best and seemed more self serving than anything. Especially since again he refused to try to temper down his most zealous fans.
The reality is as Mitt Romney learned in 2012, there is no Etch a Sketch for the general election.
People like Rahm Emanuel, Torres and Philips; centrist Democratic strategists and commentators thrash Dems brand more than they attack Republicans by repeatedly invoking toxicity, bathrooms, classrooms, weakness and wokeness which other Democrats who appear on cable news like Ro Khanna, Klobuchar then have to answer.
This is a problem too
It's a really imperfect analogy because we don't have political coalitions in the US. There is decent evidence that left-wing voters staying home may have cost us the 2024 election, but that's very different than what happened at the end of the Weimar Republic, where the KPD refused to join an anti-Nazi government, leading to Hitler's election as chancellor. There isn't an elected Democrat who has called for progressives to withhold their support for the Democratic leadership in congress, for example.
There is just one poll conducted by a Muslim cultural Institute along with YouGov which says that. Gaza wasn't even in the top 10 issues polled in all surveys. Nate Cohn, David Shor Blue Rose Research and Pew Research's individual reports say that with higher turnout, Trump would have won a landslide.
Not being a top ten issue overall doesn't exclude it from being very important to a small segment of the electorate. Indeed that's how "wedge" issues work broadly speaking. I agree that the evidence is somewhat conflicted and open to multiple interpretations, but that isn't a particularly strong point against the case.
Who do you have in mind as playing this role?
No-one could really be the equivalent to the leader of a huge party controlled by Stalin, though. The self-styled left-wingers you mention are a bunch of lesser players.
New: Memo from Democratic ad firm Van Ness Creative Strategies first shared with Semafor says the party's leaders are still failing to communicate online. The firm says if Democratic elected officials still feel uncomfortable posting "now is a great time to retire."
https://x.com/maxwelltani/status/1944746699034918967
Interesting that they call Mamdani's campaign "extremely online". Yes, he went viral online in a big way, but he also spent a lot of time talking to people in person, and it's been pointed out that he had a huge number of volunteers canvassing. So while it's obviously crucial to appeal to people online, no-one should have the illusion that in-person campaigning has become unimportant.
It seems like to lesson from Mamdani is to be in-person everywhere and film and post it so you’re online everywhere. My 17 year-old son learned about Mamdani before I did because Mamdani’s content showed up my son’s feed and we live in the Midwest.
Though Trump has yet to tip his (small) hands, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has come down squarely on the side of the incumbent, John Cornyn, in his primary race against Ken Paxton for Senate from Texas. Responding to State Senator Angela Paxton's announcement that she was suing her husband, the state attorney general, for divorce, NRSC spokesperson Joanna Rodriguez stated: “What Ken Paxton has put his family through is truly repulsive and disgusting. No one should have to endure what Angela Paxton has, and we pray for her as she chooses to stand up for herself and her family during this difficult time.” However, Paxton is leading Cornyn by a wide margin in the polls. Spousal abuse is no impediment to placing a MAGA miscreant in office.
"A person close to Paxton told NOTUS the day his divorce was announced was his second best day of small-donor fundraising since he launched."
https://www.notus.org/2026-election/texas-senate-mess
https://x.com/Mr_Berman/status/1944750702808420543
Lol!
I wonder if another far fight candidate like Wesley Hunt get in now that Paxton is caught up in his divorce drama.
I could see that
Of course there already is another far-right candidate - his name is John Cornyn, and he almost never strays from the MAGA line.
For MAGA, voting with them all the time is not enough- you need to be a cultural bomb thrower as well.
In regards to Alabama, and really a lot of other races, it feels like a "Navy Seal Veteran" is running in about 10% of every race out there. I'm exaggerating, but a lot of them seem to be seeking office.
Are they Democratic veterans?
Usually no, but some are.
Rarely, I think. But I wouldn't exactly expect the Seals to have a ton of Dems.
Appears that Walz is out for 2028 https://x.com/daveweigel/status/1944797411672470027
Probably not for discussion here, though if Walz announced that he were running again for governor or nothing at all it would be.
Please do not discuss 2028 since the Downballot admins as well as the community is against it.
Denying is a crucial part in running for President as Ross Barkan writes BTW.
The basically final ad spending for each AZ07 candidate in the Democratic primary. Along with data showing very high turnout, likely to surpass both 2022 and 2024 general election primaries.
https://x.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1944768810256384277
#AZPol: Tomorrow's #AZ07 special primary has seen $2.1m in ad spending.
Candidates' ad support:
Adelita Grijalva: $817k
Deja Foxx: $742k
Daniel Hernandez: $526k
https://tucsonagenda.substack.com/p/eager-electorate?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true
We worked closely with Sam Almy, the data guru at Uplift Campaigns, to do the math for the returned ballots in the CD7 special election — specifically Democratic ballots — up until last Thursday.
So far, 42,137 Democratic Primary ballots have been returned. That’s 4,500 more than 2024 and about 500 away from 2022’s figure.
Seeing that returns are higher than 2024 does seem to suggest that there is more enthusiasm in the Democratic base, he added.
And the interest goes beyond the base. A lot more independents asked for a Democratic ballot this year, compared to the 2024 primary.
Last year, 1,875 returns were from independent voters casting a Democratic ballot.
This year, 5,423 returns are from independent voters casting a Democratic ballot.
I'm guessing that the differences in ad spending aren't so great as to make the difference in the votes. All 3 candidates would have gotten their messages out.
You’re probably right, but I do think it’s interesting the person who raised the most in the special election primary campaign spent the least on ads (Hernandez).
I'm generally thinking (and hoping) that Adelita wins easily despite the efforts of Deja Foxx and her "Tucson Families Fed Up" PAC.
Has Clyburn retracted his endorsement of Cuomo "on character" now that he has ditched the party? Or is he fine with him ditching the Democratic party post-double digit loss. Does "vote blue no matter who" apply when they don't get their way?
I have no issue with the fact that Biden won due to Clyburn's endorsements but kingmakers should not exist anymore.
First day to collect petition signatures for the ballot in IL is August 5th so potential candidates need to be preparing now.
Danny Davis may try to help Boykin by announcing his retirement at the end of October just before the filing deadline on Nov 3.
what's the intel on the PA Supreme Court race? I'm just beginning to tune in. 3 Dem justices, all simply need to win a retention election? any serious threat or organizing being done around them? critical for a majority of the court?
fwiw my group got pretty heavily involved in both Judge Janet and Judge Susan races in WI, both fundraising and phone banking.
Correct, it's just a retention election
MI-04: Democratic State Senator announces run for the seat.
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2025/07/14/democrat-sean-mccann-running-for-congress-in-west-michigan-targeting-bill-huizenga/85025684007/
Whoa! McCann is a great get