$5M is a lot of money in 5 state legislative races. Those Indiana legislators acted with integrity. I hope that it works out for them one way or another.
Michael, I pointed out that Conor had written "Indians" instead of "Indiana". He corrected the typo, so I removed my comment as superfluous. That’s all.
Jim Banks is as MAGA as they get, so I am not surprised that he is helping to bankroll this effort. Turning Point's political involvement would seem to me yet another reason it should not be allowed to have chapters in Indiana high schools.
One one hand, I’d like to see people who showed even the tiniest bit of backbone to Trump not be punished for it. On the other hand, I can see the benefit to it being made unambiguously clear to everyone that there is no room for dissent in today’s Republican Party. Maybe get some more people believing the party isn’t for them anymore.
I just think that makes it harder for the next local official to stand up against Trump. But even if that’s not the case, I never want someone to lose because they act with honor and principle.
No matter what Trump does in Texas Cornyn is done. There is enough 2nd and 3rd person ballots to win. The Democrat has a great chance to win. In the blue states (except California and Nevada) have a great way of strengthening their calls for help for the middle and lower income folks by combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections which will boost voter turnout and save millions of taxpayers money which is needed to make up for Trump's cuts. Another way to boost voter turnout and save money is to enact universal vote by mail.
I think Mike is referring to voters who voted for Hunt in the first round of the GOP primary who intend to vote for Paxton in the runoff, but I'm not sure.
Quantum were the bad guys in Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace, but I think they were only named in Quantum of Solace. After that they were replaced by Spectre as the even more secret shadow organization.
Independent polling firm founded by Jason Corley with GOP lean based on their social media history. Don’t take well to being called a republican pollster. Were accurate in 2024 and were very confident in their NJ 2025 governor poll even criticising other polling companies only to miss by around 12 points
Having said that, interestingly they appear to have been doing a number of GOP primary polls recently so they may have contacts. Also they appear to have slightly R friendly electorate demographics based on their congressional ballot polls even with positive D result so may be slightly more baked in GOP lean
Trump being fixated on certain things that happened years ago is also a symptom of frontotemporal dementia. It's going to cost him and the GOP dearly come November.
I’d love to see that be more front and center “Ask yourself what’s more likely, was there a widespread, nationwide program of fraud for this one race, that hasn’t been substantiated despite countless attempts to find it over the last six years, or is it just that this guy can’t handle the fact that he lost to Joe Biden?”
In general I’d like to see Dems revisit going after Trump’s character, not in the “he’s a bigot” or “he’s a madman” sense (of course he is those things) but in a “he’s pathetic” sort of way. The guy wears his neuroses and insecurities on his sleeve, he’s the least subtle human being on the planet. Point them out!
The way to hurt Trump is to paint him as a pathetic loser. A TACO. Someone who can’t think straight and can’t even plan a war. Paint him as someone subservient and incapable of standing up to Vlad Putin.
Have Stormy Daniels cut some snarky TV ads hinting that Trump is submissive – and with a twinkle in her eye inviting voters to "put Little Donald in his place this November".
He's lazy. He refuses to do the work, like build a coalition for his war so American troops don't bear the sole cost and to keep oil costs within reason. Rather than make the case, he makes up Sh....
I mean Trump has been fixated on perceived injustices to his ego for DECADES. I don't see any signs of dementia. He's just becoming more crocketchidy and tunnel-visoned with age as happens with many.
I'm posting on here from my new (and hopefully permanent!) Substack account for the first time, so I'll provide some of my takes on the Illinois primaries tomorrow:
Weather - Election Day turnout may be a bit down, relative to the high interest in statewide, Congressional, and other primaries, in the Chicago area and in the northern third of the state due to snow falling last night and today. Tomorrow's weather forecast for the Chicago area is mostly sunny and cold.
IL-Gov-R - Bailey, even though he's pretending to be a moderate this time around (he pretended to be a Chicagoan four years ago), has such a pervasive cult of personality in the southern two-thirds of the state that I don't think Dabrowski has much of a chance of winning the GOP nomination.
IL-Sen-D - This is basically a two-way race between Raja and Stratton. Raja's coalition will probably consist of the wealthier and/or less progressive parts of the Chicago area plus rural downstate, whereas Stratton's coalition will probably consist of urban downstate areas and the poorer and/or predominantly Black areas of the Chicago metro, although she'll probably do well in the predominantly Hispanic/Latino areas of the Chicago metro as well. If Kelly wins any areas, it would probably be some of the rural areas in IL-2 (think of places like Iroquois County, which usually provide very few Democratic primary votes). Kevin Ryan, another candidate, actually has more Instagram followers than Raja, Stratton, or Kelly, which I find noteworthy since Ryan hasn't had statistically significant support (i.e., more than MoE) in any pre-primary poll.
IL-2-D - I would regard Donna Miller as a slight frontrunner, although Miller and Jesse Jackson, Jr. splitting the moderate/establishment vote, as well as Toni Preckwinkle being on the ballot in Cook County, gives Peters an opening. If Donna and Mary Miller (no relation) both get elected to Congress, I don't know how the House would differentiate between the two Millers of Illinois in roll calls (such as for the vote on the Speaker). The pro-AI groups are the ones supporting JJ2, and their ads look extremely cheaply produced (and likely AI-generated in their entirety).
IL-9-D - This may be a prediction I end up regretting later, but I think Abughazaleh is a slight favorite here, especially given how AIPAC and other big-money groups have acted frantically trying to fracture Kat's coalition (to the extent you can call it a coalition) in the closing days. Both the moderate (Fine, Andrew, and, to a lesser extent, Biss) and progressive (several candidates, including Abughazaleh, Huynh, Amiwala, and, to some extent, Biss) voting blocs are split between multiple candidates, especially the latter.
Vermilion County Treasurer-R - This will be an interesting Republican primary to watch, as incumbent Darren Duncan (former congressional candidate, lost to Mary Miller in a previous version of IL-15 in 2020) has been affected by multiple scandals, including a scandal involving trying to improperly influence the replacement process for county clerk here in Vermilion County after the previous county clerk resigned, and Duncan has an ideologically similar (in this case, very right-wing) primary challenger, Jason Whaling. The Vermilion Times, which is an online-only independent publication of sorts based in Danville, has an excellent write-up about the Duncan scandals here: https://vermiliontimes.com/2026/03/09/vermilion-county-treasurer-darren-duncan-only-erika-and-i-know/ There is no Democratic candidate in this race, so, unless there's a candidate slated after the primary or write-in candidates file for the general election, the GOP primary is the de facto general election in this race.
I'm not familiar enough with the IL-7 or IL-8 Democratic primaries, or the Republican U.S. Senate primary, to provide any commentary on those.
IL-08 seems to be between Bean (establishment) and Ahmed (progressive), and I haven't seen any of the other candidates with much traction. We interviewed everyone except Bean in that race but decided not to endorse. I think Bean wins but could be wrong.
IL-07 is Ford's race to lose. Kina Collins is the serious progressive challenger but she's coasting on name recognition from her prior runs, and is low on funds.
I still say Biss wins in IL-09. The AIPAC money is definitely the story of the cycle.
Rooting for Robert Peters in IL-02 but I don't think he's likely to win.
to be clear, and understanding that all this hinges on voters approving the VA referendum: VA-05 has Tom Perriello; VA-06 Rasoul; and VA-07 is the Helmer/ D. McAuliffe/ maybe-Guzman mess, right?
IIRC, Tom Perriello lives in either Charlottesville or Albemarle County, which means he lives in the proposed VA-06. Therefore, he'll have to compete against Sam Rasoul and Beth Macy in the primaries.
Even if Perriello lived in the proposed VA-05, he would be huge underdog against Shannon Taylor. Henrico County (where Taylor is the incumbent Commonwealth's Attorney) makes up about one third of the new VA-05, and the Richmond area makes up about four fifths of the new VA-05.
Message from Tony the Democrat at Postcards to Voters:
NEW Campaign
#433 Shawn Harris in GA
Election Date: 04/07/26
The campaign has given us a targeted list of voters they believe are most likely to respond positively to your friendly handwritten election reminders. This is the special congressional runoff to fill MTG’s seat. The whole country will be talking about the turnout on election night. Let's do this. Write on!
Still, I think it's right to know if a representative lives in their district. Just the name of the town, not the exact address, would be nice. Or the neighborhood if said town is split between districts.
Yes but Steyer’s optics are bad here considering it was the GOP who went after Swalwell over the notion of not living in California before he brought up the topic. Swalwell also got a condo in DC but has family living with him back at home in Livermore.
Pretty obvious Swalwell needs a place to stay in DC while serving in the House. If Swalwell advances from the gubernatorial primary and wins the general election, he’ll likely sell his condo. No big deal.
It seems evident Swalwell is the Democratic front runner in the race and Steyer is trying to run a campaign where he can get traction at this point. I really hope Steyer spends more of his energy helping down ballot Democrats win and pick up seats.
Also, Steyer ought to have smarter political tactics if Swalwell, known for being a straight shooter, will get furious over his personal address being revealed by Steyer.
The problem I see comparison you are making with Swalwell vs. Stark is that Swalwell actually is a native of and grew up in Dublin. Stark was a native Wisconsinite who moved to the Bay Area long ago and got his MBA at UC Berkeley, when MBAs were a much newer kind of degree compared to how they are today. Stark also prior to 2012 had been serving in Congress since 1975 so he became more of an establishment House Democrat in all those years, even while he was staunchly liberal and against the Iraq War.
Although questioning Swalwell's residence isn't by default a problem (it should be asked of any political candidate), Livermore is right next to Dublin. Also, a relative of Swalwell's mentor in his high school, Dublin High School, owns the property. I really doubt residents of Dublin and nearby care about this.
The idea that this could create a constitutional crisis for CA for Swalwell's residency issues is such BS.
Trump going out of his way to keep talking about Neal Dunn's near resignation for health issues until he blurts out that it was a terminal diagnosis that Dunn's likely to die by June.
He threw Roy Cohn under the bus back in the 1980’s before he died of AIDS.
I am one to dissent over Trump throwing his kids under the bus. He has more emotional connection with them than anyone outside of his family. Public persona may be different than what Trump is behind the scenes.
No question re polls being a snapshot. People just need to remember that in federal races in NC, both parties have a low ceiling and a high floor. We should expect it to be close.
NC only went to Trump by a point. I see Earls and the two incumbent Court of Appeals justices narrowly winning re-election (as well as Walcyzk winning the open CoA seat). There were ICE raids here as well, which prompted Earls to make a statement (as well as her nepo baby colleague rebuking her).
I misremembered it. But I wager if people who voted for TACO in 2024 in NC could change their vote after the horrific first year of his second term, he'd lose the state.
It’s not guaranteed, but expecting a 2024 electorate in 2026 also seems like a very unwise decision. It almost certainly is going to be a bluer electorate, with the current GCB an already large 7-8 point shift to the left from what 2024 was. That said, treating the race as a Tossup race is the right call, it’ll take work to win even with Cooper as our nominee.
I don’t know if this one is for any candidate or organization. PPP is not known manipulating much of its findings, but it has generally been on the “too rosy” side esp for its home state.
PPP weighted to reported 2024 vote as they typically do, and the sample reported 51-47 Trump. The actual result was 51-48. The consensus seems to be more Trump voters than Harris voters are 'misremembering' their vote. Also, this sample had Trump approval at 47/50 which is probably higher than it actually is. If Cooper's up 3 with that sample I think he'll do fine.
Yes. Also Cooper and Earls and Democrats in general would probably want to push polls showing closer races than a blowout. They want to keep donors and enthusiasm up and not have it be a complete snooze fest.
Accordingly I think this is probably close to worst-case scenario for us. I’m not very concerned as a North Carolinian.
First year in awhile I have no clue who is even trying on the GOP side. Despite their losses, they usually run someone notable, who has already won an election at least. Duke Aiona in 2010/2014, Andria Tupola who was state house minority leader in 2018 (and now a city councilor), Aiona again in 2022 (who faced a legit challenge from BJ Penn who held him under 50).
Wikipedia only lists Mike Gabbard as a potential candidate lol. That's not who I spoke to but I probably shouldn't say anything further for employment reasons.
Just dropped off my ballot in IL (in CD-4, so no primary for me) but voted for Stratton. Seems like she is closing strong, but Raja is still probably the favorite.
Putting on my Kornacki hat for the other races:
CD-2 - didn't realize Peters had closed the fundraising gap, but he hasn't had much outside support on the airwaves. Think Jackson Jr. will be boosted by his father's passing (this is the spiritual base of Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition in CD-2) and his name recognition, but maybe Preckwinkle still has enough ground game for her protege, Peters. Think Jackson Jr is the favorite.
CD-7 - Collins is a solid progressive, but you can't run a name-rec campaign with no money, and she finished behind Conyears-Ervin (who had an open ethics investigation at the time) in this same race two years ago. There are too many candidates with real money and/or ground games in play. Think Friedman and Fisher will probably overperform; hard to say what Ford will actually produce. Think it will come down to Conyears-Ervin and Friedman, with Fisher and labor's pick Driver as wild cards.
CD-8 - I think either Bean wins, but not by a lot, or it's a nail-biter between her and Ahmed; he appears to be closing strong. the progressive/left-liberal vote is split, which will hurt Ahmed.
CD-9 - Biss or Abughazaleh, it may be close but hard to say - Kat seems to be closing well, but I think Fine voters are probably switching to Biss, while voters of other prog candidates like Amiwala or Simmons aren't. Could see Fine finishing fourth tbqh.
CD-2: Thoughts on Donna Miller's placement in the primary? It reminds me of NJ-11, with Peters being Analilia Mejia, Jackson being Tom Malinowski (with the added nepotism, baggage and sympathy), and Miller being Tahesha Way (due to her AIPAC money).
CD-7: I would say Ford is the frontrunner, but agree that Friedman will overperform.
CD-8: Who else would you consider to be progressive? Morrison, Bankole and Tully have establishment credentials like Bean (i.e. Bankole is endorsed by Dick Durbin) and I don't think Dunung and Vetticad are major enough to split the vote that much.
CD-2 - you know, I had not thought of it in NJ-11 terms, but that's a smart read, that very well could happen. I suppose it will come down to how well she does in the suburbs since that will likely be her base - if she's strong there, it might make up for underperforming in the city, compared to Peters and Jackson Jr.
CD-7 - I don't know, he doesn't have the money Friedman or Fisher has (although decent), or the outside spending Conyears-Ervin has, or the potential ground game of Collins, Driver, or even Showalter. Not to mention, a lot of these candidates are west-side-based and will probably split the vote 6 or 7 ways. Really interested to see who performs well on the south side.
CD-8 - Bankole, Morrison, Tully, and Khot are probably closer to Ahmed than Bean. I would guess their voters would all be gettable by Ahmed in an RCV situation.
There is no way Peters=Mejia. As @Mike Johnson says, Peters hasn't exhibited any energy at all, for all his talk of being an organizer. Preckwinkle is focused on Preckwinkle--if she has a choice between you and her, she chooses her every time.
My guess is Biss for CD-9 (I supported him for Governor in 2018), but whatever we think about Kat, she's run an impressive campaign. Not sure I like the whole parachuting in thing, but I think some places are a bit too tribal about how long you should live there before you think of running for office.
ME-Sen: A few minor candidates on both sides withdrew, leaving Sen. Susan Collins with no intraparty opposition. Of course, Gov. Janet Mills and harbormaster Graham Platner are the leading Democrats, with another, David Costello (the troubled 2024 nominee against Sen. Angus King), also filing.
ME-Gov: The wide fields in both parties stay somewhat the same: King, Shah, Bellows, Pingree and Jackson for the Democrats; Charles, Bush, Mason, Libby, McCarthy and Midgely for the Republicans.
ME-2: Penobscot Wabanaki chief and noted drunk driver Kirk Francis did not file. State Auditor Matt Dunlap, state Sen. Joe Baldacci, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood are all still in, while former Gov. Paul LePage is running for the Republican nomination uncontested.
Oh, and, in ME-1: state Rep. Tiffany Roberts was disqualified in her primary challenge to Rep. Chellie Pingree.
Senate Republicans more and more are coming around to the possibility of a catastrophic midterm in November for the GOP. And it’s not just the usual suspects getting more anxious. It’s Senators Grassley, Paul and Moran giving increasingly dire public warnings.
Republican senators are getting louder in warning President Trump that economic headwinds caused by the administration’s tariff regime combined with the sharp reduction in global oil supplies could set the GOP up for a rude political awakening in November.
Soft jobs numbers and higher-than-desired inflation have been a persistent problem during Trump’s second term, but the double whammy of a full-scale military conflict with Iran and fresh uncertainty about Trump’s ability to reach trade deals after the Supreme Court struck down a key element of his tariff authority has created new economic risks, GOP lawmakers warn.
Ain’t discussions using betting markets’ “data” violating TDB rules?
First I'd be hearing about it, but yeah betting markets are dumb
No using betting markets for analytical purposes, or discussing your own bets, thanks.
Newsworthy stories about betting markets are still okay.
It seems more people were offended by mention of a betting site than found its results newsworthy.
Because they are not newsworthy.
I see it as a data point about public perception, nothing more, but message received, everyone.
To the extent that betting markets are notable at all, I suppose it is noteworthy that they've flipped to believing Dems will take the Senate.
$5M is a lot of money in 5 state legislative races. Those Indiana legislators acted with integrity. I hope that it works out for them one way or another.
Thanks.
What comment was deleted? So annoying!
Michael, I pointed out that Conor had written "Indians" instead of "Indiana". He corrected the typo, so I removed my comment as superfluous. That’s all.
Yep. Autocorrect frequently makes changes I don’t want, but when I fat figure “s” instead of “a”, it doesn’t have my back.
It would be nice if they lost to Democrats in November, though.
Jim Banks is as MAGA as they get, so I am not surprised that he is helping to bankroll this effort. Turning Point's political involvement would seem to me yet another reason it should not be allowed to have chapters in Indiana high schools.
One one hand, I’d like to see people who showed even the tiniest bit of backbone to Trump not be punished for it. On the other hand, I can see the benefit to it being made unambiguously clear to everyone that there is no room for dissent in today’s Republican Party. Maybe get some more people believing the party isn’t for them anymore.
I just think that makes it harder for the next local official to stand up against Trump. But even if that’s not the case, I never want someone to lose because they act with honor and principle.
So Trump is going to endorse Cornyn and Paxton? What a wuss.
That way he can't stop winning! /s
“That way no matter who comes out on top, I win”
- Mac from Always Sunny and, also, apparently the President of the United States
No matter what Trump does in Texas Cornyn is done. There is enough 2nd and 3rd person ballots to win. The Democrat has a great chance to win. In the blue states (except California and Nevada) have a great way of strengthening their calls for help for the middle and lower income folks by combining the local elections with the even year midterm elections which will boost voter turnout and save millions of taxpayers money which is needed to make up for Trump's cuts. Another way to boost voter turnout and save money is to enact universal vote by mail.
What do you mean by "2nd and 3rd person ballots"?
I think Mike is referring to voters who voted for Hunt in the first round of the GOP primary who intend to vote for Paxton in the runoff, but I'm not sure.
I see.
Ohio Quantus:
Husted 45 Brown 44
Acton 46 Ramaswamy 45
https://quantusinsights.org/f/quantus-insights-ohio-voters-signal-competitive-2026-environment#ddfaccf9-bede-412a-8ce9-6f9ddda07554
Definitely a competitive race in Ohio!
I've never heard of Quantus. Any insight into them?
Weren't they the bad guys in the Daniel Craig eta Bond films?
Probably snark, but that was Spectre.
Special Executive for Counter-Intelligence, Terrorism, Revenge and Extortion.
Quantum were the bad guys in Casino Royale and Quantum of Solace, but I think they were only named in Quantum of Solace. After that they were replaced by Spectre as the even more secret shadow organization.
I think they started in 2024, when they had a pretty good track record.
Independent polling firm founded by Jason Corley with GOP lean based on their social media history. Don’t take well to being called a republican pollster. Were accurate in 2024 and were very confident in their NJ 2025 governor poll even criticising other polling companies only to miss by around 12 points
So a red lean to date, but they may have adjusted their methodology after whiffing New Jersey.
Having said that, interestingly they appear to have been doing a number of GOP primary polls recently so they may have contacts. Also they appear to have slightly R friendly electorate demographics based on their congressional ballot polls even with positive D result so may be slightly more baked in GOP lean
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/going-problem-republicans-want-trump-094000866.html
Trump being fixated on certain things that happened years ago is also a symptom of frontotemporal dementia. It's going to cost him and the GOP dearly come November.
It's more that his ego and meglomania can't handle losing. He can never admit it, even to himself.
I’d love to see that be more front and center “Ask yourself what’s more likely, was there a widespread, nationwide program of fraud for this one race, that hasn’t been substantiated despite countless attempts to find it over the last six years, or is it just that this guy can’t handle the fact that he lost to Joe Biden?”
Or, how come he doesn't complain about an election being rigged when he wins.
Which is going to become an increasing problem for us as the Iran quagmire deepens
Yes, the aggressors - the U.S. and Israel - are losing this war.
In general I’d like to see Dems revisit going after Trump’s character, not in the “he’s a bigot” or “he’s a madman” sense (of course he is those things) but in a “he’s pathetic” sort of way. The guy wears his neuroses and insecurities on his sleeve, he’s the least subtle human being on the planet. Point them out!
“He’s a little bitch” would be the most line of attack against his character imo because it’s the most accurate, gendered language aside
The way to hurt Trump is to paint him as a pathetic loser. A TACO. Someone who can’t think straight and can’t even plan a war. Paint him as someone subservient and incapable of standing up to Vlad Putin.
Have Stormy Daniels cut some snarky TV ads hinting that Trump is submissive – and with a twinkle in her eye inviting voters to "put Little Donald in his place this November".
What he's doing doesn't help you or your family.
Voters have successfully told us twice that they don't care if he's a megalomaniac as long as groceries are cheap.
He's lazy. He refuses to do the work, like build a coalition for his war so American troops don't bear the sole cost and to keep oil costs within reason. Rather than make the case, he makes up Sh....
He IS a malignant narcissist WITH dementia. It's both.
More importantly, Trump cannot admit to himself that he’s pulling the same crap leading to the Iran War as Bush Jr did in leading up to the Iraq War.
Who’s the fool now?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=H4ThZcq1oJQ&pp=ygUOVHJ1bXAgaXJhcSB3YXI%3D
I mean Trump has been fixated on perceived injustices to his ego for DECADES. I don't see any signs of dementia. He's just becoming more crocketchidy and tunnel-visoned with age as happens with many.
I'm posting on here from my new (and hopefully permanent!) Substack account for the first time, so I'll provide some of my takes on the Illinois primaries tomorrow:
Weather - Election Day turnout may be a bit down, relative to the high interest in statewide, Congressional, and other primaries, in the Chicago area and in the northern third of the state due to snow falling last night and today. Tomorrow's weather forecast for the Chicago area is mostly sunny and cold.
IL-Gov-R - Bailey, even though he's pretending to be a moderate this time around (he pretended to be a Chicagoan four years ago), has such a pervasive cult of personality in the southern two-thirds of the state that I don't think Dabrowski has much of a chance of winning the GOP nomination.
IL-Sen-D - This is basically a two-way race between Raja and Stratton. Raja's coalition will probably consist of the wealthier and/or less progressive parts of the Chicago area plus rural downstate, whereas Stratton's coalition will probably consist of urban downstate areas and the poorer and/or predominantly Black areas of the Chicago metro, although she'll probably do well in the predominantly Hispanic/Latino areas of the Chicago metro as well. If Kelly wins any areas, it would probably be some of the rural areas in IL-2 (think of places like Iroquois County, which usually provide very few Democratic primary votes). Kevin Ryan, another candidate, actually has more Instagram followers than Raja, Stratton, or Kelly, which I find noteworthy since Ryan hasn't had statistically significant support (i.e., more than MoE) in any pre-primary poll.
IL-2-D - I would regard Donna Miller as a slight frontrunner, although Miller and Jesse Jackson, Jr. splitting the moderate/establishment vote, as well as Toni Preckwinkle being on the ballot in Cook County, gives Peters an opening. If Donna and Mary Miller (no relation) both get elected to Congress, I don't know how the House would differentiate between the two Millers of Illinois in roll calls (such as for the vote on the Speaker). The pro-AI groups are the ones supporting JJ2, and their ads look extremely cheaply produced (and likely AI-generated in their entirety).
IL-9-D - This may be a prediction I end up regretting later, but I think Abughazaleh is a slight favorite here, especially given how AIPAC and other big-money groups have acted frantically trying to fracture Kat's coalition (to the extent you can call it a coalition) in the closing days. Both the moderate (Fine, Andrew, and, to a lesser extent, Biss) and progressive (several candidates, including Abughazaleh, Huynh, Amiwala, and, to some extent, Biss) voting blocs are split between multiple candidates, especially the latter.
Vermilion County Treasurer-R - This will be an interesting Republican primary to watch, as incumbent Darren Duncan (former congressional candidate, lost to Mary Miller in a previous version of IL-15 in 2020) has been affected by multiple scandals, including a scandal involving trying to improperly influence the replacement process for county clerk here in Vermilion County after the previous county clerk resigned, and Duncan has an ideologically similar (in this case, very right-wing) primary challenger, Jason Whaling. The Vermilion Times, which is an online-only independent publication of sorts based in Danville, has an excellent write-up about the Duncan scandals here: https://vermiliontimes.com/2026/03/09/vermilion-county-treasurer-darren-duncan-only-erika-and-i-know/ There is no Democratic candidate in this race, so, unless there's a candidate slated after the primary or write-in candidates file for the general election, the GOP primary is the de facto general election in this race.
I'm not familiar enough with the IL-7 or IL-8 Democratic primaries, or the Republican U.S. Senate primary, to provide any commentary on those.
Biss is more progressive than Huynh lol
IL-08 seems to be between Bean (establishment) and Ahmed (progressive), and I haven't seen any of the other candidates with much traction. We interviewed everyone except Bean in that race but decided not to endorse. I think Bean wins but could be wrong.
IL-07 is Ford's race to lose. Kina Collins is the serious progressive challenger but she's coasting on name recognition from her prior runs, and is low on funds.
I still say Biss wins in IL-09. The AIPAC money is definitely the story of the cycle.
Rooting for Robert Peters in IL-02 but I don't think he's likely to win.
Good luck on your new venture.
Sam Rasoul (VA state house) still signaling toward a launch in VA-06.
https://x.com/Sam_Rasoul/status/2033558025479283022
to be clear, and understanding that all this hinges on voters approving the VA referendum: VA-05 has Tom Perriello; VA-06 Rasoul; and VA-07 is the Helmer/ D. McAuliffe/ maybe-Guzman mess, right?
I think the shuffle would be:
-VA-01: Vindman
-VA-02: Luria, Strickler
-VA-03: Scott
-VA-04: McClellan
-VA-05: Perriello, Taylor
-VA-06: Macy, Rasoul
-VA-07: Helmer, McAuliffe, Guzmán
-VA-08: Beyer
-VA-10: Subramanyam
-VA-11: Walkinshaw, Fram (she's here now, think she might end up in VA-10)
IIRC, Tom Perriello lives in either Charlottesville or Albemarle County, which means he lives in the proposed VA-06. Therefore, he'll have to compete against Sam Rasoul and Beth Macy in the primaries.
Even if Perriello lived in the proposed VA-05, he would be huge underdog against Shannon Taylor. Henrico County (where Taylor is the incumbent Commonwealth's Attorney) makes up about one third of the new VA-05, and the Richmond area makes up about four fifths of the new VA-05.
Message from Tony the Democrat at Postcards to Voters:
NEW Campaign
#433 Shawn Harris in GA
Election Date: 04/07/26
The campaign has given us a targeted list of voters they believe are most likely to respond positively to your friendly handwritten election reminders. This is the special congressional runoff to fill MTG’s seat. The whole country will be talking about the turnout on election night. Let's do this. Write on!
Here is a link on how to become an approved volunteer: https://postcardstovoters.org/volunteer/
CA-GOV:
Come on Tom Steyer. Did you need to do this after the GOP raised questions about Eric Swalwell’s residence?
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/california-governors-race-swalwell-residency-sworn-declaration-steyer-questions/
Doxxing politicians in this age of death threats and assassinations is terrible.
Still, I think it's right to know if a representative lives in their district. Just the name of the town, not the exact address, would be nice. Or the neighborhood if said town is split between districts.
Yes, but that's a horse of a very different color.
Yes but Steyer’s optics are bad here considering it was the GOP who went after Swalwell over the notion of not living in California before he brought up the topic. Swalwell also got a condo in DC but has family living with him back at home in Livermore.
Pretty obvious Swalwell needs a place to stay in DC while serving in the House. If Swalwell advances from the gubernatorial primary and wins the general election, he’ll likely sell his condo. No big deal.
It seems evident Swalwell is the Democratic front runner in the race and Steyer is trying to run a campaign where he can get traction at this point. I really hope Steyer spends more of his energy helping down ballot Democrats win and pick up seats.
Also, Steyer ought to have smarter political tactics if Swalwell, known for being a straight shooter, will get furious over his personal address being revealed by Steyer.
https://people.com/swalwell-accuses-steyer-endangering-kids-residency-challenge-11924691
Whether Swalwell actually lives at the residence he claims has been an issue for a long time. Here is a place to learn much more about the issue: https://eastbayinsiders.substack.com/p/new-questions-about-eric-swalwells
Ironically, in Swalwell's campaign against Pete Stark, he had a video ad claiming that Stark lived in DC and not in the district.
(Edited to correct the link.)
The problem I see comparison you are making with Swalwell vs. Stark is that Swalwell actually is a native of and grew up in Dublin. Stark was a native Wisconsinite who moved to the Bay Area long ago and got his MBA at UC Berkeley, when MBAs were a much newer kind of degree compared to how they are today. Stark also prior to 2012 had been serving in Congress since 1975 so he became more of an establishment House Democrat in all those years, even while he was staunchly liberal and against the Iraq War.
Although questioning Swalwell's residence isn't by default a problem (it should be asked of any political candidate), Livermore is right next to Dublin. Also, a relative of Swalwell's mentor in his high school, Dublin High School, owns the property. I really doubt residents of Dublin and nearby care about this.
The idea that this could create a constitutional crisis for CA for Swalwell's residency issues is such BS.
Trump going out of his way to keep talking about Neal Dunn's near resignation for health issues until he blurts out that it was a terminal diagnosis that Dunn's likely to die by June.
https://x.com/BenjaminSWeiss/status/2033585017406759320
Not electoral of course, but Trump also announced on Truth Social today that WH chief of staff Susie Wiles has breast cancer.
https://www.nydailynews.com/2026/03/16/susie-wiles-breast-cancer-white-house-chief-staff/
On Dunn...how can you morally do that to his wife and 3 children? Forcing him to stay in office until he dies?
If the GOP ever had morals, they are long dead now.
Trump doesn't care about anyone except Trump.
If he'd throw his own kids under the bus in a heartbeat (and he would, Ivanka included), he couldn't care less about Neal Dunn.
He threw Roy Cohn under the bus back in the 1980’s before he died of AIDS.
I am one to dissent over Trump throwing his kids under the bus. He has more emotional connection with them than anyone outside of his family. Public persona may be different than what Trump is behind the scenes.
Trump morals? ROTFL. Sociopaths tend not to have any.
He's literally a psychopathic killer.
His morals are in his pants. Aside from that, he loved himself, the sound of his voice and getting attention.
Nuff said.
Trump is getting worse and worse, keeps revealing his party's health issues. Can't Wiles or Dunn sue him for violating HIPAA releases?
HIPAA only applies to medical professionals. If Dunn told Trump this, there's no violation.
PPP poll of NC finds Roy Cooper leading Michael Whatley 47-44 and Anita Earls leading Sarah Stevens 43-40. (556 RVs; 3/13-14; M/E 4.7%)
PPP probably knows NC as well as any pollster so I see this as a reality check. Both races are winnable but will be close. Indeed, the undecideds heavily voted for Trump in 2024. https://e1.nmcdn.io/assets/ppp/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/NorthCarolinaResults31626.pdf
They may or may not be close. Polls are at best a snapshot, not a prediction of the eventual outcome.
No question re polls being a snapshot. People just need to remember that in federal races in NC, both parties have a low ceiling and a high floor. We should expect it to be close.
I agree that it's reasonable to act on the idea that it'll be close, though without assuming it definitely will be.
Probably a good reality check that North Carolina is still North Carolina. Any state that voted Trump is not guaranteed
NC only went to Trump by a point. I see Earls and the two incumbent Court of Appeals justices narrowly winning re-election (as well as Walcyzk winning the open CoA seat). There were ICE raids here as well, which prompted Earls to make a statement (as well as her nepo baby colleague rebuking her).
It was more like 3 points in 2024
I misremembered it. But I wager if people who voted for TACO in 2024 in NC could change their vote after the horrific first year of his second term, he'd lose the state.
He would against Generic Democrat, but what about Harris?
I won't move NC past the Tossup Category until we actually win the seat. Well said.
It’s not guaranteed, but expecting a 2024 electorate in 2026 also seems like a very unwise decision. It almost certainly is going to be a bluer electorate, with the current GCB an already large 7-8 point shift to the left from what 2024 was. That said, treating the race as a Tossup race is the right call, it’ll take work to win even with Cooper as our nominee.
Even more concerning that North Carolina polls usually favor Democrats and a three-point Cooper margin was still best PPP could do.
I don’t know if this one is for any candidate or organization. PPP is not known manipulating much of its findings, but it has generally been on the “too rosy” side esp for its home state.
PPP weighted to reported 2024 vote as they typically do, and the sample reported 51-47 Trump. The actual result was 51-48. The consensus seems to be more Trump voters than Harris voters are 'misremembering' their vote. Also, this sample had Trump approval at 47/50 which is probably higher than it actually is. If Cooper's up 3 with that sample I think he'll do fine.
Yes. Also Cooper and Earls and Democrats in general would probably want to push polls showing closer races than a blowout. They want to keep donors and enthusiasm up and not have it be a complete snooze fest.
Accordingly I think this is probably close to worst-case scenario for us. I’m not very concerned as a North Carolinian.
Eh NC has always skewed more right than polling/political analysis assumed, so I'd weight my samples more R until proven otherwise.
Tbh, PPP has been more on the too-rosy side wrt NC.
Lmao I just spoke to a Republican candidate for Governor in Hawaii as part of my job
Didn't know those existed (Republican candidates for HI-Gov). That's like running a Democrat in Wyoming or my state of WV.
There are dozens of us!
First year in awhile I have no clue who is even trying on the GOP side. Despite their losses, they usually run someone notable, who has already won an election at least. Duke Aiona in 2010/2014, Andria Tupola who was state house minority leader in 2018 (and now a city councilor), Aiona again in 2022 (who faced a legit challenge from BJ Penn who held him under 50).
Wikipedia only lists Mike Gabbard as a potential candidate lol. That's not who I spoke to but I probably shouldn't say anything further for employment reasons.
Just dropped off my ballot in IL (in CD-4, so no primary for me) but voted for Stratton. Seems like she is closing strong, but Raja is still probably the favorite.
Putting on my Kornacki hat for the other races:
CD-2 - didn't realize Peters had closed the fundraising gap, but he hasn't had much outside support on the airwaves. Think Jackson Jr. will be boosted by his father's passing (this is the spiritual base of Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition in CD-2) and his name recognition, but maybe Preckwinkle still has enough ground game for her protege, Peters. Think Jackson Jr is the favorite.
CD-7 - Collins is a solid progressive, but you can't run a name-rec campaign with no money, and she finished behind Conyears-Ervin (who had an open ethics investigation at the time) in this same race two years ago. There are too many candidates with real money and/or ground games in play. Think Friedman and Fisher will probably overperform; hard to say what Ford will actually produce. Think it will come down to Conyears-Ervin and Friedman, with Fisher and labor's pick Driver as wild cards.
CD-8 - I think either Bean wins, but not by a lot, or it's a nail-biter between her and Ahmed; he appears to be closing strong. the progressive/left-liberal vote is split, which will hurt Ahmed.
CD-9 - Biss or Abughazaleh, it may be close but hard to say - Kat seems to be closing well, but I think Fine voters are probably switching to Biss, while voters of other prog candidates like Amiwala or Simmons aren't. Could see Fine finishing fourth tbqh.
CD-2: Thoughts on Donna Miller's placement in the primary? It reminds me of NJ-11, with Peters being Analilia Mejia, Jackson being Tom Malinowski (with the added nepotism, baggage and sympathy), and Miller being Tahesha Way (due to her AIPAC money).
CD-7: I would say Ford is the frontrunner, but agree that Friedman will overperform.
CD-8: Who else would you consider to be progressive? Morrison, Bankole and Tully have establishment credentials like Bean (i.e. Bankole is endorsed by Dick Durbin) and I don't think Dunung and Vetticad are major enough to split the vote that much.
Morrison is the other major progressive. Bankole is also pretty good.
CD-2 - you know, I had not thought of it in NJ-11 terms, but that's a smart read, that very well could happen. I suppose it will come down to how well she does in the suburbs since that will likely be her base - if she's strong there, it might make up for underperforming in the city, compared to Peters and Jackson Jr.
CD-7 - I don't know, he doesn't have the money Friedman or Fisher has (although decent), or the outside spending Conyears-Ervin has, or the potential ground game of Collins, Driver, or even Showalter. Not to mention, a lot of these candidates are west-side-based and will probably split the vote 6 or 7 ways. Really interested to see who performs well on the south side.
CD-8 - Bankole, Morrison, Tully, and Khot are probably closer to Ahmed than Bean. I would guess their voters would all be gettable by Ahmed in an RCV situation.
There is no way Peters=Mejia. As @Mike Johnson says, Peters hasn't exhibited any energy at all, for all his talk of being an organizer. Preckwinkle is focused on Preckwinkle--if she has a choice between you and her, she chooses her every time.
My guess is Biss for CD-9 (I supported him for Governor in 2018), but whatever we think about Kat, she's run an impressive campaign. Not sure I like the whole parachuting in thing, but I think some places are a bit too tribal about how long you should live there before you think of running for office.
https://www.maine.gov/sos/elections-voting/upcoming-elections
Maine candidate filing:
ME-Sen: A few minor candidates on both sides withdrew, leaving Sen. Susan Collins with no intraparty opposition. Of course, Gov. Janet Mills and harbormaster Graham Platner are the leading Democrats, with another, David Costello (the troubled 2024 nominee against Sen. Angus King), also filing.
ME-Gov: The wide fields in both parties stay somewhat the same: King, Shah, Bellows, Pingree and Jackson for the Democrats; Charles, Bush, Mason, Libby, McCarthy and Midgely for the Republicans.
ME-2: Penobscot Wabanaki chief and noted drunk driver Kirk Francis did not file. State Auditor Matt Dunlap, state Sen. Joe Baldacci, and former congressional aide Jordan Wood are all still in, while former Gov. Paul LePage is running for the Republican nomination uncontested.
Oh, and, in ME-1: state Rep. Tiffany Roberts was disqualified in her primary challenge to Rep. Chellie Pingree.
Francis is the Penobscot chief.
Senate Republicans more and more are coming around to the possibility of a catastrophic midterm in November for the GOP. And it’s not just the usual suspects getting more anxious. It’s Senators Grassley, Paul and Moran giving increasingly dire public warnings.
https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5780103-trump-faces-gop-economic-backlash/
Republican senators are getting louder in warning President Trump that economic headwinds caused by the administration’s tariff regime combined with the sharp reduction in global oil supplies could set the GOP up for a rude political awakening in November.
Soft jobs numbers and higher-than-desired inflation have been a persistent problem during Trump’s second term, but the double whammy of a full-scale military conflict with Iran and fresh uncertainty about Trump’s ability to reach trade deals after the Supreme Court struck down a key element of his tariff authority has created new economic risks, GOP lawmakers warn.