Mamdani’s 'team' takes on the old guard in a trio of key primaries
Our guide to the top races in New York, Maryland, South Carolina, and Utah
Zohran Mamdani’s influence in congressional elections will be tested on Tuesday as the mayor campaigns for a trio of candidates running in competitive races in New York City, a night that will also see three other states host primaries.
But these three elections for the House are far from the only contests to watch in the Empire State. While Mamdani has remained neutral in the Democratic race to succeed longtime Rep. Jerry Nadler, rival groups affiliated with the AI sector have helped make this one of the most expensive primaries anywhere in the nation.
Donald Trump’s sway over GOP primaries, which has been under strain in recent weeks, is also under scrutiny in upstate New York’s North Country. There, he’s trying to convince Republicans to nominate a wealthy sticker company owner who’s prone to violent rhetoric and is despised by local leaders.
New York, however, doesn’t have the spotlight to itself on Tuesday.
Maryland is hosting its own set of high-dollar showdowns, including a race starring a well-heeled challenger who has repeatedly shattered spending records. Utah, meanwhile, will use a new court-drawn congressional map for the first time, which has set off the state’s most important Democratic primary in memory.
South Carolina, finally, will hold runoffs for contests where no one earned a majority of the vote in the first round of primaries two weeks earlier. The race for governor has attracted particularly close attention, as Trump, whose gubernatorial picks fell short this month in both Iowa and Georgia, executed a last-minute pirouette to avoid getting linked to yet another losing candidate.
Below is our guide to the major races in all four states. When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
You can also find interactive congressional district maps from Dave’s Redistricting App for Maryland, New York, South Carolina, and Utah linked to each state’s name.
The first polls close at 7 PM ET in South Carolina. Please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in. You can also bookmark our cheat-sheet listing all of these contests, which we’ll update as each race is called.
New York
Polls close at 9 PM ET.
NY-07 (D) (72-26 Harris)
NY-10 (D) (79-19 Harris)
NY-13 (D) (79-20 Harris)
Mamdani’s slate drew outsized attention during the New York Knicks’ victorious run during the NBA finals when the mayor starred in a basketball-themed ad alongside all three of his preferred candidates: Assemblywoman Claire Valdez, former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, and activist Darializa Avila Chevalier.
But while each member of Mamdani’s “team” is campaigning in a safely Democratic constituency, the dynamics differ widely among the three contests.
Valdez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, is one of four Democrats running to succeed Rep. Nydia Velazquez, who’s retiring after 17 terms in office, in the 7th District in northern Brooklyn and western Queens.
Her main opponent is Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, who has Velazquez’s endorsement. Reynoso, who is not affiliated with the DSA but is closely identified with the broader progressive movement, also has the support of several influential unions and the labor-backed Working Families Party.
Reynoso’s borough forms about 60% of the 7th District, while Valdez, who hails from Queens, currently represents less than 4% of the congressional district they’re both seeking. Valdez, though, is hoping that her stronger fundraising, as well as large spending from allied groups, will help her erase whatever geographic advantage Reynoso may have had.
Valdez and Reynoso are not the only candidates on the ballot in the 7th District, but the other two, City Councilmember Julie Won and attorney Vichal Kumar, have generated less attention.
A mid-May poll from Emerson College showed Valdez edging out Reynoso 23-21, with Won in third place with 13%, and Kumar taking just 1%.
Just to the southwest in the 10th District, which includes Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Park Slope, Lander is trying to deny renomination to Rep. Dan Goldman, who is serving his second term.
Lander says that Golman’s vocal support for Israel’s government and his endorsement from AIPAC make him the wrong person to hold this seat. Goldman, who has condemned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has pushed back and argued that his opposition to Trump is a far more important issue for voters than Israel.
Goldman, an heir to the Levi Strauss fortune, has far outspent Lander thanks to his stronger fundraising and willingness to self-fund. But it may not be enough: Last month, Emerson showed Lander defeating the incumbent in a 57-23 landslide.
Avila Chevalier, finally, is challenging five-term Rep. Adriano Espaillat for the 13th District in upper Manhattan and the western Bronx. Avila Chevalier, who at 32 is nearly four decades younger than the 71-year-old incumbent, has portrayed herself as an alternative to “the politics of the past.”
The challenger, a DSA member who rose to prominence in 2024 as a leader of the pro-Palestinian protests at Columbia University, has also faulted Espaillat for taking contributions from AIPAC and for endorsing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo over Mamdani in last year’s Democratic primary.
Espaillat, who later supported Mamdani in the general election, has fired back with ads focused on Avila Chevalier’s now-deleted tweets denigrating prominent Democrats like Joe Biden and Kamala Harris and calling to defund the police. Espaillat’s allies, who have spent considerably more than Avila Chevalier’s backers, have pushed a similar message.
A poll conducted in early June for Avila Chevalier’s allies showed her leading the incumbent 39-35, with two minor candidates taking just 2% apiece. Espaillat’s side responded with their own survey showing the congressman ahead 35-27, but that poll also showed a significant number of voters undecided.
NY-01 (D) (54-44 Trump)
Army National Guard veteran Chris Gallant is the Democratic frontrunner to take on Republican Rep. Nick LaLota for the 1st District on Long Island, a constituency in eastern Suffolk County that has moved hard to the right in recent years. LaLota’s allies, however, are working to make sure a different Democrat advances instead.
