Tuesday’s elections could have a major—yet largely overlooked—consequence for American democracy: Democrats could gain control of enough state governments to pass an agreement that would require the president to be elected by popular vote.
Under the proposal, known as the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, member states agree to assign their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes nationwide.
Crucially, participants would only switch over to this system once states that collectively account for a majority of electoral votes join the compact, which was first introduced in 2006. The compact’s 19 current members (which include Washington, D.C.) today have 222 of the 270 electoral votes needed for activation.
Even if the accord were to hit the 270 mark next year, though, the compact might not come into force immediately, as we’ll explain.
While there’s nothing inherently partisan about the proposal, Republicans have almost universally opposed the idea over the last decade. As a result, the compact’s ultimate fate will likely depend on Democrats, who’ve already passed it in every state they currently control and now need just 48 more electoral votes to put it over the top.
That could happen this week if Democrats make sufficient gains and hold on to their existing power in seven states, which collectively have 68 electoral votes—20 more than are needed to reach 270. Below we catalog exactly what needs to happen for Democrats to succeed in each of these states: