Election scientist Rachel Bitecofer accurately predicted the blue wave of 2018 back in late 2017-early 2018. She predicted 40 seats would flip due to negative partisanship, almost exactly the number Dems won by in November 2018. Even with the vicious red state gerrymandering after the 2020 census, she thinks the same number of seats (possibly more) will flip next year.
Who knows whether any Senate seats will flip, but the worse FDJT makes our economy, the better environment for some shock R-to-D Senate seat flips.
Not to be bragging but i also picked right around 40 seat Dem pick up in 2018. 40 seats in 2026 is quite optimistic but my Quija board is settling on 30-35...which I will gladly settle for in 2026.
I'm certainly concerned about the many threats to democracy, but Democrats or non-partisan officials run elections in many states and localities and elections will be held as usual. We absolutely should be vigilant for things like what is going on in NC with the Supreme Court seat though.
NC GOP are the worst Republican state party now (I live here). That's no easy feat considering how awful they are in OH, FL, IA and elsewhere too!
Part of the reason they are trying to steal the seat rightfully won by the incumbent justice is because they were thrown off by the Dem wins for AG, LG, and state superintendent outright (they wrote off the governor's race) -- and the cure period that put Riggs as the winner over Griffin put them over the edge. They are scared of how Anderson Clayton whipped the state Dem party back into fighting shape -- and they want to keep their state Supreme Court from flipping back to Dem control in 2028.
Because if Riggs prevails, Earls wins re-election next year and 2 or all three seats flip in 2028 -- their partisan gerrymandering and 12-week abortion ban goes sayonara in time for the 2030 midterms AND census.
I lived in NC for just under a decade and indeed the NC GOP is something else. Their efforts to take away powers from Cooper in the lame duck in 2016 were the roadmap for other GOP legislatures to attempt to do the same.
I hope Phil Berger is still around when he's back in the minority. I want to see him witnessing a Dem-led state SC and legislature toss out every red meat law and power grab he and Moore forced through.
I agree that strong candidates who run to win are vital. I say that as someone in Indiana who has not seen strong candidates in any of the local and state legislative races. Democrats could not even find a strong candidate to run in the Senate race, which has given us ultra-MAGA Senator Banks. We did have strong candidates in Jennifer McCormick for governor and Destiny Wells for Attorney General, who got in early and worked hard. Lori Camp, seeing that no one was bothering to run in the Democratic primary for the second Congressional district, jumped into the race right before the primary deadline and made a valiant effort. However, the Indiana Democratic party continues to ignore the 60% of Hoosiers who do not even vote. Until that changes, Indiana will remain red. We have new state party leadership, so I can hope, but I also had hope when the previous leadership changed, and it was a long four years.
I think Indiana governor's races would be (at least somewhat) competitive if they were held in off years.
Having to run on the same ballot as the GOP presidential nominee makes the governorship a HUGE lift for Democrats (e.g., Romney pulled Pence over the finish line in 2012).
The Indiana Republicans are hatching a plan to hold ALL elections every four years, instead of having the local municipal, school board, township, and county elections in the off cycle. They claim it will save money, but these local races will get lost in the national elections.
Bill Clintonite Emanuel was the same guy who resurrected the Blue Dogs from the dead in 2006, lobbied Obama for a small ineffective stimulus and is again trying to a make a comeback by focusing on trans issues lmao.
Election scientist Rachel Bitecofer accurately predicted the blue wave of 2018 back in late 2017-early 2018. She predicted 40 seats would flip due to negative partisanship, almost exactly the number Dems won by in November 2018. Even with the vicious red state gerrymandering after the 2020 census, she thinks the same number of seats (possibly more) will flip next year.
Who knows whether any Senate seats will flip, but the worse FDJT makes our economy, the better environment for some shock R-to-D Senate seat flips.
Not to be bragging but i also picked right around 40 seat Dem pick up in 2018. 40 seats in 2026 is quite optimistic but my Quija board is settling on 30-35...which I will gladly settle for in 2026.
I am predicting a flip of North Carolina and Texas and very close races in Alaska, Nebraska and Florida.
Isn't Susan Collins vulnerable? I hope ME's outgoing governor Janet Mills runs against her.
When I worked for the LATimes Poll in 1988, they said that it was not a prediction but a snapshot in time.
I hope we have a House and Senate to flip. While this is great, if Trump is not stopped from instituting a dictatorship, we’re toast.
I'm certainly concerned about the many threats to democracy, but Democrats or non-partisan officials run elections in many states and localities and elections will be held as usual. We absolutely should be vigilant for things like what is going on in NC with the Supreme Court seat though.
Pedalling as fast as I can…
NC GOP are the worst Republican state party now (I live here). That's no easy feat considering how awful they are in OH, FL, IA and elsewhere too!
Part of the reason they are trying to steal the seat rightfully won by the incumbent justice is because they were thrown off by the Dem wins for AG, LG, and state superintendent outright (they wrote off the governor's race) -- and the cure period that put Riggs as the winner over Griffin put them over the edge. They are scared of how Anderson Clayton whipped the state Dem party back into fighting shape -- and they want to keep their state Supreme Court from flipping back to Dem control in 2028.
Because if Riggs prevails, Earls wins re-election next year and 2 or all three seats flip in 2028 -- their partisan gerrymandering and 12-week abortion ban goes sayonara in time for the 2030 midterms AND census.
Please add Red Indiana to that list where the Republicans are trying to out-MAGA the national party.
Indiana needs their version of Ben Wikler or Anderson Clayton running the state D party. Young blood are the future of this country (and party).
It's not a matter of age but the ability to think outside of established patterns. However, I do wish we could clone Ben Wickler.
I lived in NC for just under a decade and indeed the NC GOP is something else. Their efforts to take away powers from Cooper in the lame duck in 2016 were the roadmap for other GOP legislatures to attempt to do the same.
I hope Phil Berger is still around when he's back in the minority. I want to see him witnessing a Dem-led state SC and legislature toss out every red meat law and power grab he and Moore forced through.
Payback is going to be BIG.
If anyone has any questions about the post, I am happy to answer them. Thank you for reading!
I agree that strong candidates who run to win are vital. I say that as someone in Indiana who has not seen strong candidates in any of the local and state legislative races. Democrats could not even find a strong candidate to run in the Senate race, which has given us ultra-MAGA Senator Banks. We did have strong candidates in Jennifer McCormick for governor and Destiny Wells for Attorney General, who got in early and worked hard. Lori Camp, seeing that no one was bothering to run in the Democratic primary for the second Congressional district, jumped into the race right before the primary deadline and made a valiant effort. However, the Indiana Democratic party continues to ignore the 60% of Hoosiers who do not even vote. Until that changes, Indiana will remain red. We have new state party leadership, so I can hope, but I also had hope when the previous leadership changed, and it was a long four years.
I think Indiana governor's races would be (at least somewhat) competitive if they were held in off years.
Having to run on the same ballot as the GOP presidential nominee makes the governorship a HUGE lift for Democrats (e.g., Romney pulled Pence over the finish line in 2012).
The Indiana Republicans are hatching a plan to hold ALL elections every four years, instead of having the local municipal, school board, township, and county elections in the off cycle. They claim it will save money, but these local races will get lost in the national elections.
And Pence on the VP ticket in 2016 got Holcomb over the line.
Bill Clintonite Emanuel was the same guy who resurrected the Blue Dogs from the dead in 2006, lobbied Obama for a small ineffective stimulus and is again trying to a make a comeback by focusing on trans issues lmao.