What a great start to February. May the Republican slide continue. Very curious to know if this means he is actually losing some Christian nationalists, or are we seeing a different electorate being motivated to show up.
I checked on Ballotpedia and slightly less that 95K voters showed up for the runoff vs. slightly less than 119K for the special general election in Nov. As noted, he increased his vote share from 47.6% to 57.25 in the runoff, so clearly not as many GOP voters turned out for the runoff.
State senate must be a 4 yr term in TX, so the last general election was in 2022. As noted in the article, the GOP candidate won then 60-40. But almost 278K voters voted in that election. So overall turnout in the Special election wasn't that great!
Therefore I would cast my vote for the flip being in large part due to having a motivated Democratic electorate! But the GOP candidate could be just too MAGA! Moms for liberty-type candidates took a real drubbing in school board races across the country in 2025!
If will be interesting to see what happens in the "rematch" between these two candidates in Nov.
The US Senate is in play in November. Now Democrats just need to execute and control everything they can control. (One of those things they can control is ensuring James Talarico wins his primary down in Texas.)
These are a bit too optimistic, I think. I'd characterize ME as a toss-up, OH and AK as Tilt R, TX as Lean R. IA I'd call Likely R, but could see an argument for Lean R. FL and NE are Likely R at best and MT and KS as Safe R, regardless of who runs. On the other hand, I'd consider MI to be Tilt D, and maybe even Lean D, unless Abdul-Sayed wins the primary.
This Texas election result is astounding – a political earthquake!
Have we just entered a new political era where Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” is the “Kiss of Death” for Republican candidates? That is my hope for the November midterm elections!
I'm guessing that since the onset of Trump II, more voters in far-flung areas are seeing what the Republicans are actually about. Addressing "pocketbook issues" isn't part of it.
From today's WI State Journal. Tom Tiffany is the presumptive GOP candidate for governor, who just received Trump's endorsement, then proceeded to Mike Johnson the murder videos out of neighboring MN. Pretti went to high school in Green Bay, and portions of western WI are essentially Twin Cities collar counties.
Just noted that Uygur's Wikipedia entry calls the Young Turks "a progressive and a left-wing populist sociopolitical news and commentary program." Eh wot? Not a fan of Greenwald either. Too much undiluted testosterone in that lot.
I am *so* glad that others choked on that! As a younger person I was a pretty serious student of the Middle East, including the last days and final collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Talaat Pasha and Enver Pasha were in my pantheon of evil, for the Armenian genocide but also for their vicious suppression of stirrings of Arab independence in the Levant. My first impressions of Uygur and his Young Turks were negative, esp. because of their sexism, so I've never been an admirer.
I am also an amateur late Ottoman history buff but not a student like you. I really have thought a lot about the quote: "Who remembers the annihilation of the Armenians." - Adolf Hitler.
It led me to things you wouldn't imagine: I read about how Hitler and Mussolini admired the way Mustafa Kemal Pasha completed the late ottoman genocides of Armenian, Greeks and Kurds after the 3 pashas, resurrected the CUP as the CHP, created Turkey from the ashes of the empire as a nation state. What struck me was not only the evil and brutality, but the fact that this process was later legitimized, celebrated, and largely forgotten internationally and seen as a template by them.
True about how the process was "legitimized, celebrated and largely forgotten internationally," and (given what else was going on at the time in the Middle East) I suspect that Turkey's lack of oil helps explain the neglect. Also its proximity to the rising USSR, which took up a lot of attention -- and later gave Turkey critical importance to "the West."
I couldn't for the life of me remember the name of the third of the three pashas, though I was sure it began with "D". Which it does, in the transliteration I learned first: Djemal.
Good for you. I judge individuals by the company they keep. Thank goodness we live in a country where we are free to think, choose, and express our opinions.
Democrats, Don Buckter, are for the most part, fighting for the people and he keeps saying how they are down to 27% approval They keep Trump at 37 per cent the manipulators. Yet, the special elections speak otherwise.
Much of The Downballot's readership already knows this, but it's worth pointing out that TX Senate districts are huge, bigger than a US House district. Meaning that the caveats about reading too much from a small constituency don't apply, (though it's still a special election).
Imagine if Republicans just won a Harris+17 district. The media would obsess over it for *days.* Hell, Chuck Todd would be dragging out his "Shellack-o-meter" again even as we speak.
This week may finally have broken the psychological long jam of fear that High Maga has killed rational democracy….stay firm, do not surrender to despair 👍🏻👏🤞🙏💕
Doesn’t that make both TX houses competitive? Because if Dems flip one or even both in November, you make Abbott a lame duck. I think even the incumbent governor is vulnerable now.
Remnet was grossly outspent but he won by a commanding amount. Who’s to say Hinojosa might show the MAGA governor the door?
Senate is I believe out of question based on which seats are up, now all 3 potentially competitive seats are held by Dems. The state house, on the other hand, is absolutely in play.
But should we win all the seats we currently hold in November, the state senate is achievable in ‘28
Gotta love seeing a book banner getting beaten!
Wonderful. Maybe the cult of Trump is starting to finally erode.
What a great start to February. May the Republican slide continue. Very curious to know if this means he is actually losing some Christian nationalists, or are we seeing a different electorate being motivated to show up.
Excellent question!
I checked on Ballotpedia and slightly less that 95K voters showed up for the runoff vs. slightly less than 119K for the special general election in Nov. As noted, he increased his vote share from 47.6% to 57.25 in the runoff, so clearly not as many GOP voters turned out for the runoff.
State senate must be a 4 yr term in TX, so the last general election was in 2022. As noted in the article, the GOP candidate won then 60-40. But almost 278K voters voted in that election. So overall turnout in the Special election wasn't that great!
Therefore I would cast my vote for the flip being in large part due to having a motivated Democratic electorate! But the GOP candidate could be just too MAGA! Moms for liberty-type candidates took a real drubbing in school board races across the country in 2025!
If will be interesting to see what happens in the "rematch" between these two candidates in Nov.
Wow, thanks for doing the legwork there, Cheryl!
I am at heart a data nerd!! 😊 (And a retired data analyst!) So when I have questions, I know where to look for the answers.
Low turnout special elections and runoff elections are a special interest of mine.
This victory gives me hope.
The US Senate is in play in November. Now Democrats just need to execute and control everything they can control. (One of those things they can control is ensuring James Talarico wins his primary down in Texas.)
The US Senate is in play this cycle! We need 4 flips to win it. (Fetterman is still a wild card even then)
R = held by Republican
Solid D: Minnesota
Lean D: Georgia (Ossoff)
Tilt D: R-Maine , R-North Carolina (Cooper), Michigan
Tossup: R-Ohio (Brown), R-Alaska (Peltola), R-Texas (if Talarico wins)
Tilt R: R-Iowa (if Turek wins), R-Florida (Alex Vindman), R-Nebraska (Independent Osborn)
Lean R: R-Montana (Independent Bodnar), R-Kansas (if Sharice Davids runs)
We also need to hold NH with Shaheen retiring.
That’s a Lean D seat. With the recent special elections, I think Pappas will be good for Nov.
These are a bit too optimistic, I think. I'd characterize ME as a toss-up, OH and AK as Tilt R, TX as Lean R. IA I'd call Likely R, but could see an argument for Lean R. FL and NE are Likely R at best and MT and KS as Safe R, regardless of who runs. On the other hand, I'd consider MI to be Tilt D, and maybe even Lean D, unless Abdul-Sayed wins the primary.
This Texas election result is astounding – a political earthquake!
Have we just entered a new political era where Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” is the “Kiss of Death” for Republican candidates? That is my hope for the November midterm elections!
I'm guessing that since the onset of Trump II, more voters in far-flung areas are seeing what the Republicans are actually about. Addressing "pocketbook issues" isn't part of it.
We can only hope so!
Trump's awful primary picks (Kari Lake, Herschel Walker, Roy Moore, etc.) have already cost Republicans more than a few winnable seats.
From today's WI State Journal. Tom Tiffany is the presumptive GOP candidate for governor, who just received Trump's endorsement, then proceeded to Mike Johnson the murder videos out of neighboring MN. Pretti went to high school in Green Bay, and portions of western WI are essentially Twin Cities collar counties.
Take that Bill Maher always talking BS as to Democrats not winning elections.
I gave up on Mr. Maher the evening he broke bread with Trump at the White House right after the election.
Cenk Uygar doesn't share your sentiment.
More reason why I as a Berkeley liberal continue to watch Bill Maher's show.
Cenk Uygar?? The moron who named his "Young Turks" after the group responsible for the Armenian Genocide?
https://www.armenian-genocide.org/young_turks.html
Well even Ana Kasparian, an Armenian American was his co-host but Uyghur has become a centre-right "populist" like Greenwald nowadays.
Just noted that Uygur's Wikipedia entry calls the Young Turks "a progressive and a left-wing populist sociopolitical news and commentary program." Eh wot? Not a fan of Greenwald either. Too much undiluted testosterone in that lot.
toxic
I know she’s bad on trans issues but has she really gone full Greenwald?
Nope. That's Uygur.
I am *so* glad that others choked on that! As a younger person I was a pretty serious student of the Middle East, including the last days and final collapse of the Ottoman Empire. Talaat Pasha and Enver Pasha were in my pantheon of evil, for the Armenian genocide but also for their vicious suppression of stirrings of Arab independence in the Levant. My first impressions of Uygur and his Young Turks were negative, esp. because of their sexism, so I've never been an admirer.
I am also an amateur late Ottoman history buff but not a student like you. I really have thought a lot about the quote: "Who remembers the annihilation of the Armenians." - Adolf Hitler.
It led me to things you wouldn't imagine: I read about how Hitler and Mussolini admired the way Mustafa Kemal Pasha completed the late ottoman genocides of Armenian, Greeks and Kurds after the 3 pashas, resurrected the CUP as the CHP, created Turkey from the ashes of the empire as a nation state. What struck me was not only the evil and brutality, but the fact that this process was later legitimized, celebrated, and largely forgotten internationally and seen as a template by them.
True about how the process was "legitimized, celebrated and largely forgotten internationally," and (given what else was going on at the time in the Middle East) I suspect that Turkey's lack of oil helps explain the neglect. Also its proximity to the rising USSR, which took up a lot of attention -- and later gave Turkey critical importance to "the West."
I couldn't for the life of me remember the name of the third of the three pashas, though I was sure it began with "D". Which it does, in the transliteration I learned first: Djemal.
Good for you. I judge individuals by the company they keep. Thank goodness we live in a country where we are free to think, choose, and express our opinions.
Democrats, Don Buckter, are for the most part, fighting for the people and he keeps saying how they are down to 27% approval They keep Trump at 37 per cent the manipulators. Yet, the special elections speak otherwise.
Rafael, I’m a paid subscriber to “The Hopium Cjhronicles”. Simon does good work for the Dems.
He's a neocon and basically a Never Trump conservative. Too many neocons cosplayed as liberals for the first decade of this century.
Block the blockhead.
Much of The Downballot's readership already knows this, but it's worth pointing out that TX Senate districts are huge, bigger than a US House district. Meaning that the caveats about reading too much from a small constituency don't apply, (though it's still a special election).
Imagine if Republicans just won a Harris+17 district. The media would obsess over it for *days.* Hell, Chuck Todd would be dragging out his "Shellack-o-meter" again even as we speak.
This week may finally have broken the psychological long jam of fear that High Maga has killed rational democracy….stay firm, do not surrender to despair 👍🏻👏🤞🙏💕
Republicans lost downballot too, and it wasn’t even close.
https://x.com/CurrentRevolt/status/2017836777696825404
Also tonight: BOTH
@CollinGOP
endorsed candidates lost.
56-44 and 60-40 defeats.
This guy is also a progressive Democrat who is a union leader at Lockheed Martin and the VP of the Texas AFL-CIO.
What great news! I love waking up to these special election weekend updates!!
Doesn’t that make both TX houses competitive? Because if Dems flip one or even both in November, you make Abbott a lame duck. I think even the incumbent governor is vulnerable now.
Remnet was grossly outspent but he won by a commanding amount. Who’s to say Hinojosa might show the MAGA governor the door?
Senate is I believe out of question based on which seats are up, now all 3 potentially competitive seats are held by Dems. The state house, on the other hand, is absolutely in play.
But should we win all the seats we currently hold in November, the state senate is achievable in ‘28
Flipping the state House puts the kibosh on further red meat MAGA proposals by Abbott and forces the state Senate to hew closer to the middle.
Who’s the lucky SOB who got to tell T-word about Losing (yet again)?
I’m so happy! Great to see. I pray people keep voting in the midterms.