A last-ditch scramble to stop a democratic socialist looks doomed
Another hefty primary preview includes three states that are unexpectedly on tap
Wisconsin will once again find itself at the center of the political universe on Tuesday as state Rep. Francesca Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, appears poised to win the high-profile Democratic primary for governor.
Hong’s contest, though, is only one of many to watch across the nation on an evening that will see seven states hold important races.
Democrats in neighboring Minnesota will also decide on a nominee in a competitive and expensive Senate battle. Democratic Rep. John Larson of Connecticut, meanwhile, is trying to avoid becoming the latest longtime incumbent to be tossed out by his own party. Further north in New England, Vermont Democrats will pick their nominee to take on Republican Gov. Phil Scott, a proven vote-getter who may finally be vulnerable.
Donald Trump, who supported losing candidates on two different primary nights last week, will again have his picks tested in GOP primaries in the Midwest. Trump is backing a Wisconsin candidate whom detractors have branded a “nepo baby,” while he’s also urging Minnesota Republicans to nominate a pillow salesman whose love of election conspiracies rivals Trump’s own.
But Tuesday will be even beefier than it was supposed to be.
Republicans in Alabama responded to the Supreme Court’s decision to gut the Voting Rights Act by passing a new gerrymander transforming the plurality Black and Democratic-leaning 2nd Congressional District into a majority white and Republican-friendly constituency.
To ram that change through, the GOP postponed the primary for the 2nd, as well as three other districts impacted by the new lines, from May to August. (The primaries for Alabama’s other races, including the three untouched congressional districts, took place as planned this spring.)
The sudden death of Sen. Lindsey Graham last month, meanwhile, triggered a special primary to replace him on the ballot. And unless one of the 10 candidates on the ballot unexpectedly wins a majority of the vote on Tuesday, Republicans will go back to the polls in just two weeks.
Voters in California’s 14th District, finally, will elect a representative to replace Eric Swalwell, a Democrat who resigned in disgrace in April after multiple women accused him of sexual assault.
Below is our guide to the major races in each state. When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.
You can also find interactive congressional district maps from Dave’s Redistricting App for Alabama, Connecticut, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, linked to each state’s name. The special election for California’s 14th District will be conducted using the map that was in place for 2022 and 2024 rather than the new boundaries voters approved last year, while Vermont has a single congressional district.
The first polls close at 7 PM ET in South Carolina and Vermont. Please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to watch and analyze the election returns with fellow community members as they come in!
Wisconsin
Polls close at 9 PM ET / 8 PM local time
WI-Gov (D) (50-49 Trump)
State Rep. Francesca Hong, who would be the first self-described socialist to lead any state, is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination as Wisconsin’s volatile primary for governor comes to a close. The winner will take on Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who has only minimal intraparty opposition, in what will be an intensely watched general election.
Hong’s main intraparty rival is Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who initially dropped out of the race in early July before reactivating his campaign 10 days later. Crowley, who returned to the race following Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez’s departure after she fired her campaign manager for alleged financial mismanagement, has the support of Gov. Tony Evers, who is not seeking a third term.
Evers has argued that Hong would have a difficult time against Tiffany in this perennial swing state. Evers has drawn attention to Hong’s old social media posts, including her 2020 calls for “defunding the police as a first step towards abolishing the police” and to “Cancel Thanksgiving,” to make his case to Fox 6 that she “has spent her entire campaign dealing not with the issues, but what’s on the Twitter.”
But Hong, who has sought to distance herself from those messages, has been hard to stop. Poll after poll has found the legislator far ahead of Crowley as the other two Democrats who are still running, state Sen. Kelda Roys and former state Cabinet member Joel Brennan, trail even further behind.
Crowley is hoping that last week’s Democratic Senate primary in neighboring Michigan, where progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens after polls showed him up by double digits, means that Hong’s lead is not as wide as surveys suggest. Crowley, though, would need the polling—including his campaign’s own numbers—to be off by even more than they were in Michigan.
Hong also has one big advantage that El-Sayed lacked. While El-Sayed had to overcome massive outside spending, Crowley’s allies waited until just about the last possible moment to begin attacking Hong on TV. WisPolitics reported the day before the primary that a pro-Crowley group was finally going on the air to argue that Hong’s “record is a distraction we can’t afford.”
Republicans, meanwhile, have spent weeks meddling in the Democratic primary to boost Hong.
The Republican Governors Association has spent over $3 million on commercials ostensibly attacking Hong as someone who “opposes President Trump’s deportation policies, and she wants to abolish ICE.” An obscure outfit called Middle Class Priorities, which Democrats have accused of being a Republican front, has also aired positive commercials for Hong.
WI-03 (D) (53-46 Trump)
Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke, who’s managed to secure endorsements from everyone from Bernie Sanders to the DCCC to the Blue Dog Coalition, looks like the heavy favorite to win the right for a rematch against Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in the competitive 3rd District based in southwestern Wisconsin.
