Morning Digest: It looks like the GOP is meddling in yet another Democratic primary

The newest target is Michigan's swingy 7th District

Screenshot from Michigan Sunrise PAC ad touting Democrat William Lawrence

Leading Off

MI-07

Republicans seem to be meddling in yet another Democratic primary, the 18th such time this year they’ve done so, according to a tracker maintained by The Downballot.

The latest apparent intervention, which was first flagged by Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick, is in Michigan’s competitive 7th District, where three Democrats are vying to take on first-term Republican Rep. Tom Barrett: former diplomat Bridget Brink, former Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam, and activist William Lawrence.

Lawrence, the co-founder of the climate advocacy group Sunrise Movement, is the most vocally progressive of the trio, and Democratic operatives believe his left-wing views could cost them the race. In a raft of since-deleted tweets, for instance, he expressed support for abolishing the police and prisons—positions he’s since disavowed.

The more moderate Brink and Maasdam have spent a good deal of time attacking one another on the airwaves, potentially leaving an opening for Lawrence to win the nomination. It’s that opening that Republicans may now be looking to exploit.

A group called Michigan Sunrise PAC, which was formed just a week ago, has now begun helping Lawrence and has reported spending almost $600,000 on advertising, text messages, and mailers so far.

Its ads attack Maasdam for having once been registered to vote as a Republican in Florida while emphasizing Lawrence’s support from figures like Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. They do not mention Brink.

The PAC’s origins are, as is so often the case, shrouded in darkness. However, the Congressional Leadership Fund, which is the top GOP super PAC involved in House races and has been involved in past efforts to meddle in Democratic primaries, notably did not comment when asked by Axios’ Andrew Solender about the new spending.

Mutnick also points out that Michigan Sunrise is using an obscure bank called Black Hills Community Bank that is based in South Dakota and is also used by South Dakota Republicans like Rep. Dusty Johnson and state Attorney General Marty Jackley. The bank has just two branches and ranks 1,809th in size among American banks based on total assets.

The name of the PAC, of course, is very similar to that of the organization Lawrence helped create, but the two appear unconnected. Rather, the Sunrise Movement has its own PAC, called Sunrise PAC. While the Sunrise Movement has endorsed Lawrence, its PAC has not reported spending any money on this race.

One angle, though, proved to be a false lead: An alert from AdImpact misidentified Michigan Sunrise’s media buyer as the same firm used by Republicans to interfere in last month’s Democratic primary in New York’s 17th District. That alert, however, was quickly corrected, and the firm’s name was replaced with another.

Lawrence had previously received close to $580,000 in help from actual allies, chief among them National Nurses United. However, he’s also been hit by more than $1.9 million in attack ads from outside groups, including a PAC connected to the Congressional Black Caucus.

Brink has likewise been targeted by heavy spending from a pro-Maasdam super PAC that has put $1.3 million toward defeating her. Maasdam hasn’t taken much incoming from third parties but has received nearly $1.7 million in help from VoteVets.

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Senate

ME-Sen

As expected, former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson easily secured the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate on Saturday, winning the votes of 566 of 571 delegates who participated.

Once the Maine Democratic Party submits the necessary paperwork to the secretary of state’s office, which it must do by Monday, Jackson will replace Graham Platner as the party’s nominee to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November.

MI-Sen

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens on Friday ahead of Stevens’ showdown in next week’s Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat against former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed.

Whitmer is the second major statewide elected official to weigh in on the contest. Earlier this month, retiring Sen. Gary Peters also backed Stevens in the race to replace him.

MT-Sen

In an unusual public statement, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it would not support Democrat Alani Bankhead’s campaign for Senate in Montana after Bankhead slammed the committee in an op-ed.

Earlier this month, Bankhead decried “the absolute lack of support or even encouragement from my national Democratic colleagues” at the DSCC in a guest essay at the Flathead Beacon.

In response, the group’s executive director, Devan Barber, told Semafor that “the DSCC partners with viable campaigns who have a path to victory, which Ms. Bankhead does not.”

Some Montana Democrats, most notably former Sen. Jon Tester, have called for the party to rally around former University of Montana president Seth Bodnar, who is running as an independent. However, Barber did not mention Bodnar in his comments to Semafor.

Republicans, though, have already started running ads attacking Bodnar, even though Bankhead has vociferously rejected calls that she drop out in favor of her much better-funded independent rival. Limited polling has shown Republican nominee Kurt Alme with huge leads if both Bankhead and Bodnar remain in the race, while hypothetical one-on-one matchups suggest a much closer affair.

Candidates have until Aug. 9 to withdraw their names from the November general election ballot.

SC-Sen

A super PAC that supported Lindsey Graham’s bid for reelection has now switched over to helping his sister, Sen. Darline Graham, win a full term.

Security Is Strength spent almost $1.5 million ahead of last month’s Republican primary to help the late senator turn back a challenge from businessman Mark Lynch, part of a $15 million effort by Graham and his allies that resulted in a 57-29 win.

Now the PAC says it’ll devote $900,000 to boost Darline Graham, who was recently appointed to her brother’s seat, in next month’s special GOP primary. The group’s initial spot touts Donald Trump’s endorsement of the new incumbent.

Governors

SD-Gov

South Dakota’s first-ever runoff on Tuesday has exposed a gap in the state’s campaign finance laws: Candidates aren’t required to file new fundraising reports between the primary and the second round of voting.

Keloland’s Bob Mercer notes that both Gov. Larry Rhoden and businessman Toby Doeden, who are facing off for the Republican nomination for governor, don’t have to make any further financial disclosures until mid-October.

In response to a query from Mercer, Rhoden’s campaign would only say that it had raised about $1.9 million since the June 2 primary and expected to spend roughly $1.7 million, but it did not offer details about its donors or expenditures.

Doeden was even less forthcoming, saying, “I have financed 99% of this campaign with my own money, including the runoff.” Mercer added that neither campaign responded when asked if they’d support legislation to close this loophole.

The lone public poll of the runoff, conducted by Emerson College for Keloland, found Rhoden with a large 62-32 lead. The winner will take on former Democratic state Sen. Dan Ahlers in November. Democrats have not won a race for governor in South Dakota since 1974, the longest gubernatorial drought for either party in any state.

House

IA-03

Republican Rep. Zach Nunn violated the cardinal rule of dealing with trackers when he struck the camera of a Democratic staffer who was asking him questions about rural hospital closures on Capitol Hill on Thursday.

Nunn, who represents Iowa’s swingy 3rd District, also told the tracker he was speaking with a constituent, but the person shown walking alongside the congressman was in fact NOTUS reporter Reese Gorman. According to his LinkedIn page, Gorman lives in Washington, DC.

Nunn, who faces a serious challenge from Democratic state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, responded by saying the encounter was not his “finest moment” but suggested he had been harassed.

“This wasn’t my finest moment, I shouldn’t have responded this way, and I set a bad example,” he said. “Partisan political operatives are paid to roam Capitol Hill and harass members. These are the exact kind of dirty games that make people hate politics.”

TN-05

A PAC supported by wealthy clean energy investors is seeking to defeat Republican Rep. Andy Ogles in next month’s primary, even though Democrats’ slim hopes of flipping Tennessee’s deep-red 5th District rest on the scandal-plagued incumbent emerging as the nominee.

That doesn’t seem to trouble the Invest in Tomorrow Coalition, whose spokesperson, Tom Matzzie, told Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick that the group is going after Ogles because of his “extreme anti-clean energy” views. Its larger goal, he said, is “to communicate a message to the other members of Congress that if you take these extreme positions, the industry is watching.”

Democrats “are perturbed by the clean-energy spending,” Mutnick says, precisely because they know that Ogles’ primary opponent, former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher, would be vastly harder to beat in November. The likely Democratic nominee is Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder, who has led all candidates in fundraising.

But Matzzie said that Invest in Tomorrow was unfamiliar with Hatcher’s views on renewable energy and did not want to get “sucked into those partisan games.”

It’s a familiar stance for the group, whose top donor is cryptocurrency billionaire Chris Larsen. Earlier this year, the PAC spent more than $1 million to defeat Texas Rep. Chip Roy in the GOP primary for state attorney general. But as the New York Times noted in May, Roy’s victorious opponent, state Sen. Mayes Middleton, is a co-author of legislation that would place sharp limits on new wind and solar projects.

In Tennessee, Invest in Tomorrow recently began airing positive ads on Hatcher’s behalf, but as Mutnick reports, it’s now moved on to running negative spots attacking Ogles over his history of resume inflation—precisely one of the vulnerabilities that have given Democrats like Molder hope. The congressman is also under investigation by the FBI and House Ethics Committee over alleged campaign finance violations.

The PAC has reported spending almost $700,000 so far and says it plans to put in $1 million ahead of the Aug. 6 primary.

State Legislatures

FL State House

Florida state Rep. Paula Stark will not appear on the ballot after a state judge dismissed her lawsuit seeking to reinstate her name, a decision that will automatically result in Stark’s seat flipping to Democrats.

Judge Joshua Hawks previously rejected Stark’s claim that she had in fact properly submitted paperwork to seek a third term but gave her an additional week “to show cause” as to why her suit “should not be dismissed.” Stark failed to do so, prompting Hawks to issue a dismissal. She could still appeal, but Florida Politics reported late last week that neither Stark nor her attorney responded to a request for comment.

Next month, two Democrats will face off in the primary for Stark’s 47th District south of Orlando: businessman Jorge Figueroa and Anthony Nieves, a former financial crimes investigator for the state. According to data from the Voting and Election Science Team and Dave’s Redistricting App, this heavily Latino district voted for Donald Trump by a 51-48 margin in 2024 but had backed Joe Biden 56-43 four years earlier.

Poll Pile

• FL-22: GQR for Pia Dandiya:

  • Belinda Keiser (R): 46, Dandiya (D): 45

• VA-02: Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC:

  • Elaine Luria (D): 47, Jen Kiggans (R-inc): 47