Morning Digest: Senate Democrats say they'll expand the battlefield to Texas and Florida

But victory means pulling off a feat no Democrat has managed in 16 years

Rep. Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee against Sen. Ted Cruz in Texas (Credit: Colin Allred for Senate)

Leading Off

FL-Sen, TX-Sen

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced on Thursday that it would air TV ads for the first time in Florida and Texas, saying it was making a "multi-million dollar investment" in the hopes of unseating Sens. Rick Scott and Ted Cruz.

The DSCC, which did not disclose how much it would devote to these two expensive states, is hoping its opening offensive will give it a chance to expand the battleground in a year that, until now, it's been entirely on the defensive.

With Senate Republicans all but assured of flipping West Virginia and polling ahead of Sen. Jon Tester in Montana, Democrats are looking for any opportunity to shift the map onto red turf. Should Tester's opponent, Republican Tim Sheehy, prevail, that would likely hand the Senate to the GOP unless Democrats can break through elsewhere

But if Texas Rep. Colin Allred and former Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell are to win, they'll likely need to pull off an accomplishment that only three challengers have managed in the last 30 years: Since 1992, only three sitting senators have lost reelection while their party's presidential nominee was carrying their state.

The most recent instance came in 2008, when Alaska Republican Ted Stevens lost a tight race to Democrat Mark Begich. Notably, Stevens' defeat came just eight days after he was convicted on federal corruption charges.

Both Florida and Texas are likely to remain red at the top of the ticket: Donald Trump carried both states during each of his presidential bids, and Kamala Harris' campaign currently isn't targeting either state.

And while these two giant Sun Belt states attract far less attention from pollsters than battlegrounds like Pennsylvania, what limited data there is shows the GOP ticket in the lead. Polling averages from 538 have Trump ahead in Florida 50-46, while Scott has a similar 46-42 advantage. The situation is a bit different for Cruz, though: While he outpaces Allred 47-44, that's smaller than Trump's 51-45 edge.

But both Democratic candidates are hoping their opponents' flaws will give them an opening to win over crossover support.

Scott's main weakness may be a plan he unveiled in 2022 to "sunset" all federal legislation after five years—including Social Security. Democrats across the nation were all too happy to highlight Scott's proposal, including Joe Biden, who attacked it in his State of the Union address the next year. But some of the most damning criticism came from a fellow Republican.

"I think it will be a challenge for him to deal with this in his own reelection in Florida, a state with more elderly people than any state in America," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of the Floridian who months earlier had tried to oust him as the GOP's Senate leader. Mucarsel-Powell has also attacked Scott for opposing a ballot measure that would undo Florida's six-week abortion ban.

Cruz, for his part, has tried to soften his far-right image. Allred, though, has other ideas. "We should gradually increase the retirement age," the audience sees Cruz declare in one of the congressman's ads. The commercial goes on to highlight the senator's infamous vacation to Cancun during the 2021 freeze that left his constituents in the cold, an attack that Allred's used against him in other spots.

The DSCC's opening buys come at a time when Republicans appeared poised to dominate the airwaves. AdImpact, which does not yet factor in the committee's investment, says that Cruz's side has $18 million in ad time reserved for the rest of the campaign, which is 10 times what Democrats have booked.

And while Democrats in Florida hold a $1.2 million to $380,000 advantage, Scott's massive wealth allows him to regain the initiative if he feels threatened. The senator self-funded $14 million through the end of July and can easily contribute much more: In 2018, he poured in $64 million in his successful campaign to defeat Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson.

Senate

NE-Sen-A

The National Republican Senatorial Committee is spending about $170,000 on a coordinated ad buy with Nebraska Sen. Deb Fischer, reports AdImpact, a sum that is close to the maximum allowed by law. The move comes a week after a conservative group called Heartland Resurgence began spending close to $500,000 on ads attacking independent Dan Osborn in a race where Democrats aren't fielding a candidate. 

Governors

IN-Gov

A GBAO internal poll for the Democratic Governors Association unexpectedly finds Republican Mike Braun leading Democrat Jennifer McCormick just 44-41 in the race for governor of Indiana, with a notable 8% going to Libertarian Donald Rainwater. The memo for this survey, which was first publicized by Inside Elections, says that Donald Trump leads by 10 points, though it did include any of the presidential candidates’ percentage of the vote.

Braun, who is the Hoosier State's junior U.S. senator, had looked like the easy favorite to succeed his fellow Republican, termed-out Gov. Eric Holcomb, ever since he won the May primary. The race briefly attracted attention in June when GOP delegates picked a far-right pastor named Micah Beckwith to serve as Braun's running mate, but that still didn't appear to have hindered the senator's chances.

AdImpact reported Thursday that each party has less than $100,000 in ad time reserved, so well-funded groups so far aren't behaving like McCormick, a former Republican who soured on her old party during her tenure as the state's last elected schools chief, is a threat to Braun. But McCormick's side is hoping that these results will convince skeptics to take a fresh look at her race to flip an office the GOP has held since the 2004 elections.

The one independent survey we've seen was a mid-September Emerson poll that showed Braun with a 45-34 lead over McCormick, a finding that did little to change impressions. Another 6% went to Rainwater, who took 11% against Holcomb four years ago. Respondents favored Trump 57-40, which is almost identical to his 2020 showing.

However, a Democratic poll completed earlier this month showed a dramatically different state of play. Destiny Wells, who is challenging GOP Attorney General Todd Rokita, released an internal from Lake Research Partners showing Braun outpacing McCormick just 41-39, with Rainwater at 9%. That survey, which showed Rokita ahead 44-41, found Trump carrying Indiana 52-42.

NJ-Gov

Rep. Donald Norcross on Thursday endorsed former state Senate President Steve Sweeney, a longtime ally of his family, in next year's Democratic primary to succeed term-limited New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy.

Two of the congressman's brothers—longtime South Jersey Democratic boss George Norcross and attorney Philip Norcross—were indicted on corruption charges by state prosecutors in June. Neither Donald Norcross, who is on a glide path to reelection this year, nor Sweeney were implicated.

The New Jersey Globe's Joey Fox notes that Norcross is the first member of the state's congressional delegation to take sides in a primary that's likely to include two of his colleagues, Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill. That number is likely to grow soon, though: Assemblyman Herb Conaway, who is poised to win an open House seat in November, is also backing Sweeney.

House

NE-02

New polling and spending data in Nebraska's Omaha-based 2nd District are giving Democrats reason to be optimistic about finally unseating Republican Rep. Don Bacon after many years of trying.

The positive poll numbers came from Democrat Tony Vargas, who publicized a new survey from Global Strategy Group on Wednesday showing him with a 49-45 lead over Bacon—an increase from the 46-44 edge his pollster found in June. Two other polls taken since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden at the top of the ticket have also found Vargas ahead while Bacon has led in just one.

Global Strategy Group's memo did not include any numbers on the presidential race, but after a failed, last-ditch effort by Donald Trump and Gov. Jim Pillen to convince state lawmakers to adopt a winner-take-all system for awarding Nebraska's electoral votes, it appears that Republicans have all but given up on the 2nd District at the presidential level.

As the Washington Post's Paul Kane reports, Harris and her allies are outspending Trump by an almost comical margin on the airwaves Omaha: Democrats are collectively investing around $15 million (including money spent by Biden before he dropped out) while Trump's side is set to spend less than $200,000, per AdImpact.

That winner-take-all push failed because a key holdout, Republican state Sen. Mike McDonnell, refused to go along—and a downballot election might have been the reason.

NBC reports that Democrats helped convince McDonnell, a former Democrat who is considering running for Omaha mayor next year, to stand firm by presenting polling data "that outlined just how much his chances of winning a mayoral race improved if he didn't go along with Trump."

McDonnell would not only have risked siding with Trump in a city that's repeatedly rejected him but also diminished Omaha's influence in the presidential race, a move that likely would not have played well with voters.

But one area Republican showed no hesitation in jumping on board with Trump's plan: Don Bacon. Whether or not his stance makes it into any Democrat ads, it's unlikely to endear him to Omahans.

DCCC

The DCCC added three more Democratic candidates on Thursday to its "Red to Blue" list that highlights top campaigns: Whitney Fox, who is hoping to flip Florida's 13th District by defeating Republican Rep. Anna Paulina Luna; April McClain Delaney, who is seeking to hold Maryland's open 6th District; and John Avlon, who is looking to unseat Republican Rep. Nick LaLota in New York's 1st District. The committee has yet to spend in any of these races, however.

Poll Pile

• AZ-Sen: Marist College: Ruben Gallego (D): 54, Kari Lake (R): 44 (50-49 Trump)

• AZ-Sen: Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) for Fox News: Gallego (D): 55, Lake (R): 42 (50-47 Trump) (Aug.: 56-41 Gallego)

• MD-Sen: Braun Research for the Washington Post and University of Maryland: Angela Alsobrooks (D): 51, Larry Hogan (R): 40 (63-31 Harris) (March: 50-36 Hogan)

• MI-Sen: YouGov for the University of Massachusetts-Lowell: Elissa Slotkin (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 34 (48-43 Harris) (Early Sept.: 48-41 Slotkin)

• NV-Sen: Noble Predictive Insights: Jacky Rosen (D-inc): 50, Sam Brown (R): 36 (47-47 presidential tie) (March: 41-35 Rosen)

• PA-Sen: RMG Research for the Napolitan Institute: Bob Casey (D-inc): 50, Dave McCormick (R): 44 (49-49 presidential tie)

• PA-Sen: YouGov for the UMass Lowell: Casey (D-Inc): 47, McCormick (R): 38 (48-46 Harris) (Early Sept.: 48-41 Casey)

• TX-Sen: Emerson College for The Hill and Nexstar Media: Ted Cruz (R-inc): 49, Colin Allred (D): 45 (51-46 Trump) (Early Sept.: 48-44 Cruz)

• VA-Sen: Emerson for The Hill, WAVY, WRIC, WFXR, and WDCW: Tim Kaine (D-inc): 51, Hung Cao (R): 41 (52-44 Harris)

• NC-Gov: Marist: Josh Stein (D): 54, Mark Robinson (R): 43 (49-49 presidential tie) (March: 49-47 Stein)

• AZ Ballot: Beacon and Shaw for Fox: Abortion amendment: Yes: 72, No: 26 (Aug.: 73-23 Yes)

YouGov's last polls of the Michigan and Pennsylvania Senate races were conducted on behalf of a different client, CBS.

Ad Roundup

• OH-Sen: Sherrod Brown (D-inc); Senate Majority PAC - anti-Bernie Moreno (R)

• PA-Sen: Dave McCormick (R); McCormick - anti-Bob Casey (D-inc) (here and here)

• TX-Sen: Colin Allred (D) - anti-Ted Cruz (R-inc); Truth and Courage PAC - anti-Allred

• WA-Gov: Bob Ferguson (D)

• AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R-inc); Ciscomani - anti-Kirsten Engel (D)

• CA-47: Environmental Defense Fund - anti-Scott Baugh (R) and pro-Dave Min (D)

• IA-01: Christina Bohannan (D)

• IA-03: Zach Nunn (R-inc) (here and here)

• IL-17: Eric Sorensen (D-inc) - anti-Joe McGraw (R)

• MT-01: Monica Tranel (D) - anti-Ryan Zinke (R-inc)

• NC-01: Laurie Buckhout (R) - anti-Don Davis (D-inc); Congressional Leadership Fund - anti-Davis

• NE-02: Don Bacon (R-inc) - anti-Tony Vargas (D); CLF - anti-Vargas

• OH-09: DCCC - anti-Derek Merrin (R)