The Downballot

The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose

Election Day is still almost two months off, but Republicans have already begun making once-touted recruits walk the plank. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why the decision by GOP power players to torpedo one of their own candidates in a New York House race that…

5 days ago · 7 likes · David Nir and David Beard

Election Night

Delaware

Primary season finally comes to an end on Tuesday as voters in Delaware select nominees for federal, state, and municipal offices.

Neither Sen. Chris Coons nor Rep. Sarah McBride, who represent the First State’s lone congressional district, faces serious opposition in their respective primaries on the Democratic side, but there’s more action further down the ballot.

Gov. Matt Meyer, who will not be up for reelection until 2028, has aligned with the left-wing Working Family Party to support intraparty challengers to two Democratic state senators. Senate President Pro Tem Dave Sokola, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking reelection, responded last month by arguing Meyer was trying to punish members of the upper chamber for blocking parts of his agenda.

Bolts also has a look at other races to watch in Delaware on the last primary night of the year. However, there is still one state left where voters haven’t selected their candidates for Congress.

Louisiana’s Republican-led government this spring canceled party primaries for the state’s six U.S. House seats to give the GOP time to pass a new gerrymander. All candidates will instead compete in all-party general elections on Nov. 3 rather than in separate primaries, though contenders need to win a majority of the vote to win outright.

In any races where no one clears that threshold, then the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff on Dec. 12—a date that will formally mark the end of the 2026 election cycle.

House

Independent Expenditures

With Labor Day in the rearview, deep-pocketed third-party groups have finally ramped up their spending on the races that will determine control of the House, where Democrats need to net just three seats to take the majority.

To keep tabs on the contests that the heaviest hitters are prioritizing, The Downballot is pleased to share our new tracker of independent expenditures for the 2026 midterms.

As we have every cycle since 2018, we’re compiling spending reports from the four largest groups involved in House races: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC for Democrats, and the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans.

We collect these disclosures from these “Big Four” on a weekly basis and organize them by district. The first such reports from this foursome actually started appearing just before Labor Day, with a little over $3 million—mostly from Republicans—getting directed to 10 battlegrounds. Because we update every Monday, you can find that initial burst of spending on the tab labeled “Sept. 7.”

Efforts ramped up considerably in week two. Another 11 districts came online, with nearly $13 million more devoted to what’s now a 21-seat battleground. And in addition to our weekly updates, we also maintain a running total of all spending to date on our “Summary” tab.

The spending decisions these four groups make are the best guide to understanding which elections both parties see as the most competitive, since they’re guided by private polls and reams of other data that aren’t available to the public.

Of course, those decisions are never perfect. Sometimes even those with access to the most money and the best polling make mistakes. Even so, this information remains invaluable, as upsets, by their nature, are rare.

So far, we haven’t seen any major surprises, as both HMP and CLF telegraphed their intentions earlier this year when they announced $386 million in fall TV ad reservations. Some investments, though, stand out more than others.

In particular, southwestern Michigan’s 4th District stands out because, unlike the other 20 districts on our tracker, the Big Four have never spent there. But Donald Trump carried the district by a relatively slender 52-46 margin in 2024, and Democrats are excited about their nominee, state Sen. Sean McCann, who’s proven to be a strong fundraiser. So far, HMP has put in more than $660,000 while Republicans have yet to engage on behalf of Rep. Bill Huizenga.

On the other side of the state, meanwhile, Republicans apparently are not giving up on the 8th District, despite an epic debacle in last month’s primary. In that contest, an unknown engineer named Tom Smith who dropped out a month earlier nonetheless defeated a candidate backed by Donald Trump named Amir Hassan, likely due to Islamophobia.

CLF, though, still seems to think that Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet is still vulnerable and has devoted more than $360,000 to the race. We say “seems,” though, because even though super PACs like CLF and HMP are tasked with winning majorities in Congress, they sometimes act at the behest of wealthy donors whose goals may differ. Notably, Democrats have yet to step in to aid their well-financed incumbent.

It’s also important to take note of what our tracker does not include. So far, you’ll notice that we’ve recorded no spending from the DCCC and NRCC, and unfortunately, that’s unlikely to change.

In June, the Supreme Court struck down a federal law limiting how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates, making independent expenditures no longer necessary. Consequently, there’s little reason for committees like the DCCC and NRCC to ever file an independent expenditure report again. We’ll keep those columns available, though, in case anything does trickle through.

We also don’t include the many, many other groups that are also putting money into House contests, including outfits like Trump’s MAGA Inc. That’s because our tracker is designed to give an overview of how the biggest players see the battleground. That picture can become cloudier rather than clearer if you add in more data, especially from groups with unclear aims.

We invite you to bookmark our tracker to stay on top of the unfolding fight for the House. And when we refresh it each week, we’ll also note any important developments in the Morning Digest.

AR-02

A conservative group has spent close to $420,000 to help Republican Rep. French Hill fend off Democrat Chris Jones in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, a constituency the GOP gerrymandered after the last census following some well-financed Democratic efforts to flip it.

FEC filings from Committee for American Leadership, which Politico flagged on Monday, represent the first outside spending from anyone for the general election between Hill and Jones, a physicist and pastor. The top House super PACs for both sides have not reserved any ad time in the 2nd District, a central Arkansas seat that Donald Trump carried 57-41 in 2024.

Both parties have largely treated this race as uncompetitive even though the only two publicly available polls have found the Democrat with a small lead.

Jones, who would be the first Black person to represent Arkansas in Congress, released an internal poll in May from 2040 Strategy Group showing him defeating Hill 46-43. Hendrix College later conducted a survey in August for the website Talk Business & Politics, putting Jones ahead by a similar 48-44 spread.

But Jones, whom Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders defeated in a landslide in the 2022 race for governor, has struggled to convince major Democratic donors and outside groups that he poses a serious threat to Hill, the chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee.

While Jones raised close to $1.2 million through June, the incumbent brought in roughly $4.4 million in his quest for a seventh term. Hill ended the second quarter of 2026 with an even larger $3 million to $200,000 cash advantage.

The GOP has held the 2nd since the 2010 Republican wave election, when Tim Griffin was elected to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder. Griffin retired just four years later, but another GOP wave helped sweep Hill to victory over a well-regarded Democratic rival.

While Hill had no trouble during his first bid for reelection in 2016, his next two races were closer: In 2018, he won by a 52-46 margin, and in 2020, he prevailed 55-45. But Arkansas Republicans, who had firm control over the state’s three other congressional districts, soon made the 2nd several points redder during redistricting.

Hill easily won in 2022 as fellow Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders sped past Jones in the race for governor. The congressman likewise claimed his sixth term with ease in 2024 as Trump was carrying his district by 16 points.

Utility Regulators

TX Railroad Commission

Bo French, the Republican nominee for a seat on Texas’ powerful Railroad Commission, showed no remorse Monday over tweets he posted attacking University of Texas students of Southeast Asian descent that even some fellow Republicans denounced as racist.

“The establishment raised and spent $7 million against me in the primary,” French told conservative radio host Mark Davis. “Many of the people who criticized me yesterday were some of the same people involved in that effort. It’s no surprise that the less-conservative people in Texas are the ones attacking me.”

The outcry began Sunday morning after French shared a photo of students celebrating the Texas Longhorns’ upset comeback victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes in Saturday’s highly anticipated football game. French, though, was evidently disgusted to see these students, many of whom were of Southeast Asian ancestry, reveling in the moment.

“I heard UT graduation this year looked like this,” French tweeted. “I didn’t believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.”

The candidate fired off a second post soon after featuring the same photo, writing, “Like body-cams exposed criminals, social media is exposing how many Americans have been displaced by foreigners. It’s everywhere and far worse than any of us could imagine.”

French faces Democrat Jon Rosenthal this fall in a hotly contested race for a spot on the three-member Railroad Commission, which, despite its name, regulates the state’s oil and gas industry.

Some Texas Republicans were quick to denounce their candidate. Sen. John Cornyn, who lost renomination to Ken Paxton the same evening that GOP voters chose French over incumbent Jim Wright, wrote on X, “Are other Republican elected officials going to condemn the intolerance and racism, or look the other way while it becomes normalized. This is how great political parties self-destruct. Sad.”

But while some other Republicans like state House Speaker Dustin Burrows condemned French’s post, the GOP’s two most prominent candidates had other ideas.

Paxton, who headlined French’s campaign launch party last year, instead disapprovingly shared a tweet by Democratic rival James Talarico thanking Cornyn for rebuking French and calling on Paxton to do the same. Paxton, who did not mention French, instead wrote, “Only one person in this race has a history of dividing Texans by race, and it’s James Talarico.”

Gov. Greg Abbott, who stumped for French’s opponent during the GOP primary this spring, also refused to criticize him.

“A selective picture of Longhorn fans celebrating our biggest home victory-ever-actually shows a way that Texans unite,” the governor, who is seeking reelection, said in a statement that also did not reference French. “That doesn’t mean that Texas cannot also lead in having the toughest immigration laws of any state in America and freezing H1B visas at our universities.”

Rosenthal, though, argued Abbott had it right back in May when he unsuccessfully warned Republicans that French’s “agenda would wreck the miracle that we have in producing more oil and gas than ever before.”

“I spent 25 years as an oil and gas engineer. Bo French spent Sunday morning sorting our student section by skin color,” Rosenthal wrote. “Greg Abbott said Bo French would ‘wreck’ our oil and gas industry. A man who can’t tell a Longhorn from a foreigner has no business regulating anything in TX.”

Rosenthal, a member of the state House, is aiming to be the first Democrat to serve on the Railroad Commission of Texas, which goes by the abbreviation RRC, in more than three decades.

Republicans have controlled all three seats on the body since the 1994 election, and they’ve beaten back Democratic attempts to make inroads. Members of the panel—which hasn’t had any jurisdiction over train travel since 2005—are elected statewide for six-year terms, with one seat on the ballot each election cycle.

But while candidates for utility regulating bodies like the RRC have long been overshadowed by contenders for offices higher up the ballot, races like these have started to draw considerably more notice at a time when issues like soaring electricity bills and the proliferation of data centers have become some of the most high-profile topics in American politics.

Georgia Democrats in particular are optimistic that they can take control of their state’s Public Service Commission, a GOP-dominated body with duties comparable to Texas’ RRC, this fall.

Meanwhile, Arizona Democrats are in the midst of a multi-year push to win the Corporation Commission, which has often been nicknamed that state’s “fourth branch of government.” Clean energy advocates in eastern Nebraska are also campaigning to take control of the Omaha Public Power District, a publicly owned utility that serves more than 900,000 people across a 13-county region.

French, though, has drawn infamy well outside of Texas—and for reasons having nothing to do with energy regulation.

French was serving as party chair for Tarrant County, a populous community home to Fort Worth, in June of last year when he posted a poll to X asking whether “Jews” or “Muslims” were “a bigger threat to America.”

He characteristically ignored calls from fellow Republicans for his resignation and only stepped down in November when he decided to oppose Wright for renomination. The challenger spent the ensuing months spreading an Islamophobic message and calling for the deportation of up to 100 million.

Wright warned that French was the wrong person to serve on the RRC, telling the New York Times this spring, “[T]his really isn’t a political office. This is a regulatory office.” GOP voters disagreed, though, ousting Wright by a tight 50.5 to 49.5 margin in a May runoff.

French has continued to use the general election to promote bigotry toward many Americans. The Republican has attacked Rosenthal for wearing a facemask in 2021 emblazoned with the words “Protect Trans Kids,” as well as for recognizing Pride Month.

Rosenthal, for his part, argues voters have other things on their minds as they decide who should be on the RRC.

“[T]hey’re worried about our energy grid, they’re worried about our electric bills, they’re worried about pollution,” he told the Texas Tribune in June. He added, “I personally wish for a world where government just goes back to being boring and doing their dang job.”

Poll Pile

All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.

NE-Sen: SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC:
- Dan Osborn (I): 46, Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 42.
- Grant Forbes, a firm that works with Democrats in Pennsylvania, tells The Downballot that it is not involved in any Nebraska campaigns and commissioned the poll for its own interest.
NH-Sen: co/efficient:
- Chris Pappas (D): 46, John Sununu (R): 46.
- Co/efficient, a Republican firm, says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.”
NE-Gov: SurveyUSA:
- Jim Pillen (R-inc): 43, Lynne Walz (D): 35, other: 13%.
- The poll did not name Brett Lindstrom, the nominee of the America First Party. Respondents were instead asked if they support “Another Candidate.”
NH-Gov: co/efficient:
- Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 55, Cinde Warmington (D): 34.
FL-27: Bendixen & Amandi International for the DCCC:
- Eliott Rodriguez (D): 45, Maria Elvira Salazar (R-inc): 45.

Morning Digest: The GOP’s biggest game of chicken ends with both sides chickening out

David Nir — Mon, 14 Sep 2026 12:04:06 GMT

Ken Paxton (right), Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas. (Credit: Ken Paxton Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-Sen

The GOP’s biggest game of chicken just ended with both sides chickening out.

AdImpact reports that an affiliate of the Senate Leadership Fund is spending more than $50 million on its opening ad campaign to help Republican Ken Paxton fend off Democrat James Talarico.

The intervention comes one week after Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. began spending $10 million to boost Paxton in Texas’ Senate race.

Both organizations are finally taking action at the end of a summer that saw Talarico, who finished June with a vast $21.5 million to $1.8 million cash advantage, make use of his strong fundraising to dominate the airwaves.

Republicans, by contrast, were anything but enthusiastic about sinking massive sums of money into an expensive state where they’ve controlled both U.S. Senate seats since 1993. At the end of July, the New York Times’ Theodore Schleifer reported that the GOP had exactly $0 reserved in ads for the general election.

Republicans were never likely to cut Paxton loose altogether, but no one wanted to lead the rescue mission. Schleifer described a “high-stakes game of chicken” between SLF and MAGA Inc. as each faction kept waiting for the other to get involved.

Unnamed donors aligned with SLF told Schleifer they believed Trump’s super PAC should open its wallet because of Trump’s own decisions. The GOP’s supreme leader endorsed Paxton’s campaign against Sen. John Cornyn in May despite grim predictions that the scandal-plagued Paxton would force Republicans to spend far more money in a general election.

Paxton went on to defeat Cornyn in a landslide, but the freshly minted Republican nominee reportedly tried to reassure his reluctant new allies that he wouldn’t be a drain on their coffers. According to Schleifer, Paxton told SLF officials in June that he “hoped the race wouldn’t be so close to warrant a heavy spend.”

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Few Republicans would harbor such hopes now. An aggregate of surveys compiled by FiftyPlusOne gave Talarico a 47.6 to 44.4 advantage as of Friday, and the last poll to show Paxton ahead—by all of 1 point—was conducted more than a month ago.

Now, with Texas at risk of going blue for the first time in decades, both MAGA Inc. and SLF have begun waging expensive ad campaigns to improve Paxton’s image and tear down Talarico.

One new spot from the SLF-linked Texas PAC goes all-in on transphobia and twice features a clip of Talarico saying, “Defending trans Texans is something we have to do every day.” The ad debuted two days after Talarico told Fox News, “I will oppose trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it risks safety or fairness.”

A second commercial from Texas PAC focuses entirely on Paxton’s record as state attorney general. The narrator praises the Republican for successfully prosecuting sex traffickers in a case involving a 14-year-old.

Talarico, however, began attacking Paxton on the airwaves late last month, calling his opponent “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”

Unlike Paxton, Talarico isn’t dependent on outside groups to get his message out, but it remains to be seen whether prominent Democratic organizations will start spending now that their Republican counterparts have finally engaged.

The Senate Majority PAC, in a statement mocking SLF for having to get involved, would only say of its own plans, “We’re watching Texas closely, and will continue to.”

The newspaper chain McClatchy just laid off more than 90 journalists at 17 different publications—a grim development that comes just a few years after the company was acquired by a hedge fund. But while Wall Street firms are busy buying up once-beloved brands and then selling them off for parts to satisfy ravenous investors, that will never happen here at The Downballot.

Why? Because we don’t have investors. Our model is completely different. The only people we’re accountable to are our readers. Our approach only works, though, if we can become financially sustainable. If you can help us, we’d be incredibly grateful. At our annual subscription rate, it works out to just $6.25 a month. Thank you so much.

The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose

5 days ago · 4 likes · David Nir and David Beard

House

No Going Back PAC, an affiliate of Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., just booked ad time in more than a dozen House races, the New York Times reported on Friday.

Data shared by the Times’ Teddy Schleifer shows that the group’s largest reservation is $6.8 million for Florida’s 25th District, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer for a constituency the GOP gerrymandered earlier this year.

Tracking the full extent of MAGA Inc.’s activities, though, is difficult in part because it has a growing network of affiliates. The Bangor Daily News reports that one such organization, called Safety and Affordability PAC, has booked $4.4 million to help Republican Paul LePage flip Maine’s open 2nd District. LePage is going up against Democrat Matt Dunlap in the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.

Mayors & County Leaders

Chicago, IL Mayor

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson announced Sunday that he would seek reelection next year, a decision that sets up what will be a challenging race for a second term.

Johnson, a progressive Democrat who was elected in a close contest in 2023, has posted weak poll numbers for most of his tenure leading this loyally blue city. One typical recent poll, a June survey from the University of Chicago, gave him a 23-54 approval score.

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Johnson’s critics charge he’s done a poor job dealing with issues like crime and the city’s projected $98 million budget gap, while the mayor has defended his record leading the country’s third-largest city, especially with a hostile administration in the White House.

Earlier this year, Johnson told WTTW, “It has been a barrage of just crisis after crisis that I’ve had to manage, but again, you know, I’ve made it very clear that it’s a lot more effective and easier to lead when you are leading with your values and your convictions.”

Johnson’s arguments, though, haven’t deterred high-profile fellow Democrats from challenging him. The race has attracted more than a dozen contenders, including prominent figures like Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and Rep. Mike Quigley.

All candidates will run together in a single, officially nonpartisan primary on Feb. 23. A runoff would take place on April 6 unless one contender wins a majority of the vote, something that hasn’t happened since 2011.

Poll Pile

All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.

IA-Sen: YouGov:
- Josh Turek (D): 45, Ashley Hinson (R): 43.
- YouGov provided data for two different likely voter screens: one that it calls “loose” and the other it calls “strict.” We have reported the former and will continue to do so, as the latter includes only respondents who say they will “definitely” vote.
KS-Sen: co/efficient:
- Roger Marshall (R-inc): 49, Adam Hamilton (D): 44, David Graham (L): 2.
- Co/efficient, a Republican firm, says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.”
MT-Sen: Rutgers University for the Montana Free Press:
- Kurt Alme (R): 38, Seth Bodnar (I): 30, Alani Bankhead (D): 16, Kyle Austin (L): 5.
SD-Sen: Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs:
- Mike Rounds (R-inc): 45, Bengs (I): 42.
CT-Gov: GreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart University:
- Ned Lamont (D-inc): 52, Ryan Fazio (R): 37.
- July: 50-30 Lamont.
IA-Gov: YouGov:
- Rob Sand (D): 51, Zach Lahn (R): 40.
KS-Gov: co/efficient:
- Ty Masterson (R): 51, Cindy Holscher (D): 43.
CA-34: Upswing Research for Guardrails Alliance:
- Angela Gonzales-Torres (D): 41, Jimmy Gomez (D-inc): 38.
- Guardrails Alliance was formed this year to counter pro-AI groups like Leading the Future. The group has not made an endorsement, but its website features Gomez on a list of candidates backed by Leading the Future.
NV-02: GBAO for the Nevada Alliance:
- Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D): 38, David Flippo (R): 37, Lynn Chapman (Independent American Party): 14.
- The Nevada Alliance is a Democratic-aligned organization. The group does not appear to have made an endorsement in this race.
MO Ballot: Amendment 3 (repeal abortion rights amendment): YouGov/St. Louis University:
- No: 44, Yes: 43.
- The poll also asked about a referendum seeking to permanently repeal a Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander. The Downballot wrote up those results in the previous Digest.
MO Ballot: Amendment 6 (restrict legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-approved initiatives): YouGov/SLU:
- Yes: 48, No: 21.
MO Auditor: YouGov/SLU:
- Scott Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 45, Quentin Wilson (D): 43.

Weekly open thread

James Lambert — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 21:01:20 GMT

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Morning Digest: Democrats try to weaponize data centers against a difficult GOP target

David Nir — Fri, 11 Sep 2026 12:04:03 GMT

(Credit: Bob Harvie commercial)

Leading Off

PA-01

Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Harvie is using his first ad of the general election to attack Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick over data centers, a topic Fitzpatrick has never had to address during any of his prior campaigns.

“Big tech is taking over our lives, and they want more,” says Harvie, a member of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, as he narrates the spot. As the audience sees footage of Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, the candidate continues by declaring that these forces are “grabbing our land, water, electricity, and sticking us with the bill.”

The challenger then turns his attention to Fitzpatrick, who is seeking his sixth term representing the swingy 1st Congressional District outside of Philadelphia.

“Tech got Brian Fitzpatrick too,” Harvie says. “After taking their money, Fitzpatrick voted for $20 million in data center giveaways and made it impossible for communities like ours to stop new data centers.” After calling for “a moratorium,” the Democrat concludes, “Big tech owns enough. They shouldn’t own our congressman, too.”

Harvie’s ad, which comes as Amazon is in the midst of building a 250-acre hyperscale data center in the 1st District, is one of many hitting the airwaves this year on the topic, which has recently surged in salience.

Until last year, data centers had seldom been a potent campaign issue. One rare exception came in 2023 during the Democratic primary in the race to lead Prince William County, Virginia.

Deshundra Jefferson, a first-time candidate, scored an upset win over Ann Wheeler, the chair of the Board of County Supervisors, in a contest that saw the incumbent’s support for a major project known as the “Digital Gateway” turn into a political liability. (After years of persistent opposition, the effort finally died this summer.)

Data centers, however, largely remained in the background in much of the country—until Donald Trump returned to the White House. And ever since, they’ve become a major political liability.

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In explaining his landslide victory for a seat on Georgia’s Public Service Commission last year, Democrat Peter Hubbard told Wired that the “number one issue” he heard about from voters was “affordability” in the face of soaring electricity bills.

“But a very close second,” he continued, “was data centers and the concern around them just sucking up the water, the electricity, the land—and not really paying any taxes.”

Opposition to data centers swiftly became a major issue in primaries this year, especially among Democrats determined to set themselves apart from their intraparty rivals. It also played a role in some Republican races, though. Utah Senate President Stuart Adams, notably, lost renomination to challenger Stephanie Hollist, who faulted Adams for supporting the construction of a controversial 20,000-acre complex.

During the general election, however, Democrats have been far more aggressive in tying Republicans to unpopular projects. AdImpact said in late August that Democrats had been responsible for about three-quarters of all commercials about data centers to date, and nearly every ad on the subject from both parties has framed it negatively.

Some Republicans have tried to turn the issue around by portraying Democrats as the ones who want to force such plans on unwilling Americans, but the nation’s top Republican has other ideas.

“The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week. “If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign.”

Polls, though, show that Americans overwhelmingly don’t want data to reign anywhere near them. A recent national survey from YouGov found 61% of Americans saying they oppose “a new data center being built in your community,” including 46% who say they “strongly oppose” such projects. Just 22% expressed support.

Harvie is hoping voter antipathy will give him a lift against Fitzpatrick, but the congressman has other ideas. Fitzpatrick responded to his opponent’s new commercial with a digital ad dubbing Harvie “Bucks County’s #1 fan of data centers.”

Harvie, HuffPost notes, praised an announcement from Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro about Amazon’s plan to build in Bucks County, tweeting, “New revenue from this project will directly support our schools, infrastructure, and will help our local economy thrive for years to come.”

Harvie, though, argues that Fitzpatrick failed to stand up to the tech industry when he had the chance.

Last year, the Republican voted against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” when it reached the House floor, but Politico notes he helped move the plan along. The legislation included financial incentives to build in designated “Opportunity Zones,” which Republicans have said could be used to spur data center construction.

Harvie is counting on voters to agree that it’s finally time to eject Fitzpatrick, who has regularly outperformed the top of the GOP ticket in both midterm and presidential years.

The congressman was elected in 2016 to replace his older brother, Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, after his sibling retired. He quickly emulated his brother by cultivating a centrist image while still largely voting for his party’s agenda. Democrats came close to defeating the new incumbent in 2018 during Trump’s first midterm, but he prevailed 51-49 even as Trump’s unpopularity dragged down battle-tested Republicans in many other races.

Fitzpatrick went on to win his next three elections with ease, culminating in his 56-43 victory in 2024 even though Kamala Harris narrowly carried the 1st District by a tight 49.7 to 49.4 spread.

Trump’s sinking approval ratings and Harvie’s prominence give Democrats their best chance to take down Fitzpatrick since the last blue wave, but the incumbent remains a formidable opponent.

Fitzpatrick has secured endorsements from traditionally Democratic constituencies like environmental groups and unions, and he also enjoys a massive fundraising advantage. The congressman ended June with close to $6.4 million in the bank, a figure that dwarfed the roughly $800,000 Harvie had available.

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC in April reserved around $13 million in ad time in the Philadelphia media market that could be used to target Fitzpatrick, but it remains to be seen how much it will direct to the race. At least some of these bookings will likely be used to aid Democrat Bob Brooks against Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the neighboring 7th District, one of the swingiest House districts in the nation.

HMP, though, gave Harvie reason to be optimistic about its interest in his race last month when it released an internal poll showing Fitzpatrick ahead just 49-48. That survey from GQR became public shortly after Harvie published his own poll from Global Strategy Group, giving the incumbent a slightly larger 47-43 edge. Neither Republicans nor nonpartisan groups have released any polls of this race.

To make The Downballot sustainable for the long term, we’re going to need to hire a third writer. But to do that, we’ll need to reach at least 4,000 paid subscribers by the end of this year. It’s still a doable goal—we’re currently at 3,567—but growth has unfortunately tailed off lately.

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The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose

5 days ago · 3 likes · David Nir and David Beard

Redistricting Roundup

MO Redistrict, MO Ballot

The Supreme Court on Thursday morning stayed a federal district court ruling that had directed Missouri officials not to use any congressional map for the November elections other than a new Republican-drawn gerrymander, meaning that the midterms will be held under the lines in place in both 2022 and 2024.

In separate proceedings that afternoon, the Missouri Supreme Court found Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins in contempt for seeking to move forward using the GOP map, even though the justices ruled last week that it had never taken legal effect because opponents successfully qualified a referendum seeking to repeal it.

However, Chief Justice Brent Powell also said that Hoskins had “corrected his contemptuous conduct” by instructing local election officials to use the previous map. Because of that, in a written order issued later on Thursday, the court declined to punish Hoskins.

As a result of the Supreme Court’s decision, which was issued without objections from any justices, Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver will be the heavy favorite to win a 12th term in the 5th Congressional District, the chief target of the GOP’s gerrymander. Republican Rep. Ann Wagner will also face a more difficult race against Democrat Fred Wellman in the conservative 2nd District, which Republicans tried to make redder.

The GOP-led legal challenge over the maps will continue before the lower federal courts, but there’s no chance it could upend the status quo before Election Day since ballots are about to be printed. And given the Supreme Court’s disdain—Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected similar arguments on Tuesday—it’s unlikely to succeed even if Republicans keep pursuing it.

Voters will also have the chance to permanently reject the GOP map in November when the repeal referendum, now designated Proposition A, appears on the ballot. The only poll of the measure, however, shows that many voters have yet to make up their minds. A survey late last month conducted by St. Louis University and YouGov found 35% in favor of the map, 32% opposed, and 33% unsure. “No” must win a majority for the repeal to succeed.

According to the most recent fundraising reports, the map’s opponents have a sizable financial advantage—and that’s only likely to grow following their legal victories. As of June 30, People Not Politicians reported raising $7.2 million and had more than $500,000 in the bank, while Put Missouri First, the main group supporting the map, brought in $3.1 million and had just $92,000 on hand.

House

CA-40

Rep. Young Kim released an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies on Thursday showing her with a tiny 35-34 deficit against Rep. Ken Calvert as the two Republicans head toward a rare incumbent vs. incumbent general election.

In June’s top-two primary for California’s 40th District, Calvert led Kim 35-21, while the top Democrat, Esther Kim-Varet, was shut out after taking 17%. Democrats had deliberately made the district redder when they redrew the congressional map last year so that other nearby districts in Southern California could become more Democratic—a transformation that helped explain why Kim-Varet was unable to advance.

Kim, though, appears to be trying to appeal to Democratic voters who now lack a candidate of their own. While both incumbents spent the primary arguing over which of them was the truest ally of Donald Trump, Politico reported this week that Kim recently removed all mentions of MAGA’s master from the front page of her website.

A spokesperson for Kim denied that she was distancing herself from Trump, who has not taken sides in what’s now one of the few remaining races in the nation between two Republicans. (Louisiana will hold all-party primaries for the U.S. House on Nov. 3 following the passage of its new GOP-drawn gerrymander.)

Calvert, for his part, still prominently features Trump on his campaign site. His team also informed the Los Angeles Times that he went to Texas for Trump’s midterm convention this week, an event Kim opted not to attend.

Calvert’s backers, though, aren’t emphasizing Trump quite so much in their own messaging. Both the Times and Politico note that an allied super PAC hasn’t mentioned Trump in any general election ads.

But while Trump has maintained his public neutrality, Calvert has one prominent figure in his corner. Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate for governor, endorsed the congressman in July.

There’s been no independent polling of the general election between Calvert, who has represented a variety of communities in and around Riverside County since his first election to Congress in 1992, and Kim, an Orange County Republican who won her seat in 2020. The only prior data came in a July survey for Kim’s allies that, like this newer poll, gave Calvert a 1-point edge.

Ballot Measures

NE Ballot

The Nebraska Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that a proposed constitutional amendment to limit the ability of politicians to interfere in the ballot initiative process could not go before voters in November because it violates the state’s prohibition on amendments that address more than a single subject.

Last month, Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen refused to certify the proposal on the same grounds. In response, the group supporting the measure, Respect Nebraska Voters, appealed to the state Supreme Court, but in a 6-1 ruling, it agreed with Evnen.

The majority held that the plan “addresses at least two subjects”: protecting laws already enacted by initiatives and restricting the ability of lawmakers to alter the initiative process itself. The lone dissenter, Justice Jonathan Papik, disagreed, saying the full measure could be characterized as affecting “the Legislature’s authority over the people’s reserved power to make laws.”

In a statement following the ruling, Respect Nebraska Voters said it would “continue to engage with Nebraskans to ensure that community voices are heard and respected by lawmakers” but did not address whether it might try again in the future with a narrower proposal.

Legislatures

IN State Senate

The Indiana Supreme Court ruled Thursday that state Sen. Spencer Deery had prevailed by three votes in the May Republican primary against Paula Copenhaver, a challenger backed by Donald Trump.

Last month, the state’s Recount Commission rejected six votes cast for Deery on technical grounds, including issues like clerks failing to sign ballots. The court, however, rejected that reasoning in a brief one-page order, saying it would issue a more detailed opinion at a later date.

The decision, which came four months after Trump and his allies defeated six other state senators who defied him on gerrymandering, could make it tougher for Republicans to pass a new congressional map next cycle.

Poll Pile

All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.

FL-Sen: Change Research for Freedom Project USA:
- Angie Nixon (D): 47, Ashley Moody (R-inc): 47.
- Freedom Project USA does not appear to have made an endorsement in any Florida contests, including those also polled below.
ME-Sen: YouGov:
- Troy Jackson (D): 48, Susan Collins (R-inc): 44.
NC-Sen: Elon University/YouGov:
- Roy Cooper (D): 49, Michael Whatley (R): 38.
- July: 53-42 Cooper.
NC-Sen: East Carolina University:
- Cooper (D): 46, Whatley (R): 39.
TX-Sen: Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for the AARP:
- James Talarico (D): 48, Ken Paxton (R): 44.
FL-Gov: Change:
- David Jolly (D): 47, Byron Donalds (R): 44.
ME-Gov: YouGov:
- Hannah Pingree (D): 47, Bobby Charles (R): 36, Rick Bennett (I): 2.
NV-Gov: Emerson College for KLAS-TV:
- Aaron Ford (D): 44, Joe Lombardo (R-inc): 42.
TX-Gov: Fabrizio/Impact:
- Greg Abbott (R-inc): 49, Gina Hinojosa (D): 46.
TN-09: Hart Research for Tennessee Rise PAC (pro-Justin Pearson):
- Brent Taylor (R): 48, Pearson (D): 44.
FL-AG: Change:
- Jose Javier Rodriguez (D): 46, James Uthmeier (R-inc): 46.
FL Chief Financial Officer: Change:
- Annette Taddeo (D): 44, Blaise Ingoglia (R-inc): 44.

Morning Digest, sponsored by NDTC: After keeping the GOP waiting all year, MAGA Inc. is finally helping out

David Nir — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 12:03:49 GMT

Republican Rep. Scott Perry (right) is receiving help from a group reportedly funded by Donald Trump’s super PAC. (Credit: Scott Perry Facebook)

Leading Off

Senate, PA-10

A new group called No Going Back PAC, which just booked at least $49 million in ad time to boost Republicans across six Senate races and help GOP Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th District, is reportedly receiving its funding from Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc.

The New York Times, citing data from AdImpact, reports that the super PAC’s largest investment is in Michigan, where it’s spending close to $15 million to aid Republican Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed.

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The group is also engaging in Alaska, Georgia, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio; the Times’ Teddy Schleifer has the exact breakdown of each race. It’s not clear, however, how much it plans to spend to help Perry, the only House candidate on this roster, in his rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson, who came close to defeating him in 2024.

The bookings come just days after MAGA Inc. itself put $10 million into Texas’ Senate contest to aid Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico. The Times says that it’s not clear why the organization decided to fund No Going Back PAC Inc. rather than spend directly in the other races it’s targeting.

It also remains to be seen how much of MAGA Inc.’s $400 million war chest will even be used to help Republican candidates this year.

In April, Axios reported that the behemoth super PAC intended “to begin unloading its massive war chest around Memorial Day,” but the holiday came and went without any major activity. Independence Day also passed without anything new, which led Republicans to wonder whether it would ever get involved.

As the summer wound down, The Atlantic reported that new investments might be forthcoming—though Republicans might not have been thrilled to hear it. According to the magazine, Trump told his inner circle that he wanted his PAC to run ads promoting his record in office rather than focus on downballot candidates. Such an approach, as the story noted, could benefit Democrats, who are eager to ensure voters keep the GOP’s unpopular leader top of mind.

The Washington Post subsequently wrote last week that some unnamed sources close to Trump believe he’ll keep much of MAGA Inc.’s cash for purposes like covering his legal fees and helping his preferred successor win the White House two years from now.

“I’m going to spend whatever amount of money necessary to try and help us,” Trump told reporters Friday of his plans for the midterms. “This is my money that I control.”

But while MAGA Inc. is finally taking action, its procrastination could prove costly.

Candidates and third-party organizations prefer to reserve ad time in the spring so they can lock in cheaper rates before high demand sends prices upward. By waiting as long as it has, MAGA Inc. will now need to pay more to reach the same number of viewers—and the cost will only increase as Election Day draws closer.

Outside groups like Trump’s PAC also have to spend more than candidates, who are legally entitled to cheaper advertising rates, to reach the same number of viewers. Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin noted this week that Senate candidates in Texas currently can pay less than half of what third-party groups must cough up to reach voters, a gulf that will also widen during the stretch run.

The Downballot Podcast

The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose

The Davids also recap Tuesday’s primaries in New Hampshire, including a Democratic battle in a swingy open seat that, once again, ought to be fiercely contested by Republicans but won’t be. They wrap up with the chaotic situation unfolding in Missouri, where dueling court rulings have ordered election officials to use different congressional maps in November, prompting chaos, confusion, and a massive flurry of legal filings.

Election Recaps

RI-Gov (D & R) (56-42 Harris)

Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes defeated Rhode Island Gov. Dan McKee in a 62-38 landslide in Wednesday’s Democratic primary, a win that came four years after McKee narrowly fended off Foulkes in their first bout.

But McKee, whose subsequent term was dominated by the abrupt 2023 closure of the Washington Bridge and other local problems, has now become the state’s first governor to lose reelection since 1994. The last to go down was fellow Democrat Bruce Sundlun, who was likewise ejected by his own party in a primary after a tenure dominated by the state’s economic struggles.

McKee is the first chief executive in any state to lose a primary since 2018. That year, Kansas Republican Jeff Colyer, who had become governor just six months earlier, narrowly lost to Kris Kobach, who in turn lost the general election to Democrat Laura Kelly.

McKee is also the first elected governor to fail to win renomination since 2014, when Hawaii Democrat Neil Abercrombie fell to David Ige in a historic 67-32 blowout.

Foulkes will take on Aaron Guckian, a former executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association who defeated former actress Elaine Pelino 51-49 in the Republican primary. She’ll also face businessman Ken Block, a former Republican running as an independent.

Foulkes, though, is well-positioned to win the general election in this solidly blue state. A poll from the University of New Hampshire conducted in late August showed her leading Block by a wide 40-19 margin, with Guckian in third place with 15%.

McKee wasn’t the only high-profile Democratic incumbent to lose a primary on Wednesday. Providence Mayor Brett Smiley fell to state Rep. David Morales, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who ran to his left, 53-47. Morales’ victory over Smiley, the first incumbent mayor to lose renomination in the history of Rhode Island’s capital city, sets him up for an easy general election.

Redistricting Roundup

MO Redistricting, MO Ballot

A three-judge panel of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals on Wednesday afternoon rejected a motion by opponents of Missouri’s new Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander to stay a ruling by a district court judge that forbids any map other than the GOP’s plan from being used in the November midterms.

People Not Politicians, the group behind the referendum seeking to repeal the Republican map, immediately asked the U.S. Supreme Court to grant the stay that the 8th Circuit rejected. That request will be addressed individually by Justice Brett Kavanaugh, unless he chooses to refer the matter to the full court.

A day earlier, Kavanaugh dismissed a Republican request to block last week’s ruling by the Missouri Supreme Court concluding that, because the repeal referendum qualified for the ballot, the new GOP map had never taken legal effect. As a result, the state’s top court directed that this fall’s general elections be held under the map used in 2022 and 2024.

However, shortly after Kavanaugh’s decision, a federal district court granted a different Republican request to enjoin the use of any map except the GOP map, known as HB1. That ruling sparked chaos and confusion, leaving local election administrators unsure of how to proceed, and prompted People Not Politicians to seek a stay.

Kavanaugh instructed Missouri Republicans to respond to the group’s stay request by 10 AM Thursday, less than 24 hours after it was filed. Steven Mazie, a Supreme Court reporter for The Economist, characterized the abbreviated schedule as a “sign they want to foreclose this fuckery ASAP.”

Governors

AZ-Gov, NV-Gov

Two neighboring governors in western swing states—Democrat Katie Hobbs of Arizona and Republican Joe Lombardo of Nevada—both enjoy massive spending advantages over their opponents as they each seek a second term.

Arizona Family wrote Tuesday that Hobbs has spent at least $10 million on TV ads, while her Republican opponent, Rep. Andy Biggs, had yet to take to the airwaves. 12News subsequently reported that the state GOP was launching a $1.75 million TV buy against Hobbs, a three-week ad campaign that still leaves the incumbent with a wide edge.

And the clock is ticking for Republicans to narrow that gap. Early voting begins on Oct. 7, and due to the popularity of mail voting in Arizona, most ballots are cast before Election Day.

Biggs, however, may struggle to convince well-heeled Republicans he’s worth helping before it’s too late. According to an aggregate of surveys compiled by FiftyPlusOne, Hobbs enjoys a 48-39 advantage over Biggs—a dramatically different margin from the Democrat’s first victory in 2022, when she prevailed by less than a point.

Polls conducted over the last month, though, dramatically differ on where they see the race. A mid-August poll from the conservative firm NextGen Polling gave Hobbs a minuscule 39-38 edge. The governor, conversely, posted a huge 50-34 advantage in a survey conducted around that same time by HighGround, a polling company run by a longtime Republican strategist who has also donated to Democrats.

Over in neighboring Nevada, though, Republicans are the ones dominating the ad race. The Nevada Independent writes that Lombardo and his backers have spent $36 million as of Friday, while Democrat Aaron Ford and his allies have deployed just under $2 million.

Nevada Democrats are similarly waiting for the Democratic Governors Association to give Ford a much-needed boost, but there’s still no word on when the cavalry might arrive. An unnamed source would only tell the Indy late last month, “When the DGA comes in, and they will, it will be bad news for Joe Lombardo.”

Nevada, like Arizona, is a state where most voters will have their say before Election Day. Early voting starts on Oct. 17.

Lombardo holds a modest 49-44 edge in FiftyPlusOne’s polling average, but there’s considerably less data to work with than in Arizona. The most recent surveys were all conducted in July, and all were conducted for partisan clients.

Poll Pile

IA-Sen: Global Strategy Group for Josh Turek:
- Turek (D): 46, Ashley Hinson (R): 42, Thomas Laehn (L): 6.
KY-Sen: GSG for Charles Booker:
- Andy Barr (R): 49, Booker (D): 40.
ME-Sen: CNN/SSRS:
- Troy Jackson (D): 48, Susan Collins (R-inc): 45.
MI-Sen: CNN/SSRS:
- Abdul El-Sayed (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 44.
TX-Sen: YouGov for Univision:
- James Talarico (D): 48, Ken Paxton (R): 43.
ME-Gov: CNN/SSRS:
- Hannah Pingree (D): 52, Bobby Charles (R): 39.
- The poll did not include independent Rick Bennett.
MI-Gov: CNN/SSRS:
- Jocelyn Benson (D): 50, John James (R): 41.
TX-Gov: YouGov:
- Gina Hinojosa (D): 47, Greg Abbott (R-inc): 47.
AL-02: Tulchin Research for House Majority PAC:
- Shomari Figures (D-inc): 47, Rhett Marques (R): 47.
FL-22: Impact Research for HMP:
- Pia Dandiya (D): 46, Casey Askar (R): 44.
MI-AG: Glengariff Group for WDIV and the Detroit News:
- Eli Savit (D): 36, Doug Lloyd (R): 35.
MI-SoS: Glengariff:
- Garlin Gilchrist (D): 42, Anthony Forlini (R): 36.

The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose

David Nir — Thu, 10 Sep 2026 11:03:00 GMT

Morning Digest: In ominous sign for GOP, Republicans triage their first House race

David Nir — Wed, 09 Sep 2026 12:03:23 GMT

State Sen. Peter Oberacker, Republican nominee for New York’s 19th Congressional District. (Credit: Peter Oberacker Facebook)

Leading Off

NY-19

Republicans triaged their first House race of 2026 just before Labor Day—a worrying sign for the party’s hopes of holding the chamber, not least because it’s decided to narrow the playing field much earlier than in recent years.

The unlucky Republican at the center of this is state Sen. Peter Oberacker, who is challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Riley in New York’s 19th District.

The news that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest conservative super PAC in House races, had abandoned Oberacker first became known on Friday when a spokesperson for the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC flagged that CLF had canceled more than $1.4 million in TV ad time for the race.

Punchbowl News’ Ally Mutnick also reported on Friday that the National Republican Congressional Committee had quietly removed the senator from its MAGA Majority program. The NRCC had placed Oberacker on its inaugural list in March, touting it as a “slate of strong candidates running in key battleground districts across the country who embody the Trump agenda.”

By Tuesday, Oberacker’s hopes had died their final death, when Axios’ Andrew Solender reported that CLF had cut all of its ad reservations for the race. In April, the PAC had announced it had booked nearly $4.6 million for the Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse media markets, all of which was intended for this contest.

Six months ago, Oberacker did indeed appear to be a strong contender to flip the 19th District, a constituency in southeastern upstate New York that was a top House battleground during the previous two election cycles.

Republican Marc Molinaro first won this seat in 2022 by defeating Riley 51-49 in a contest that saw the four largest House groups—the CLF and NRCC on the right and HMP and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on the left—spend a combined $12 million.

That foursome would deploy another $21 million two years later when Riley sought a rematch, which once again made this one of the most expensive House races of the year. This time, though, it was Riley who came out on top 51-49 as Kamala Harris was carrying the 19th by a tight 50-49 spread.

Republicans spent most of 2025 looking for a candidate to retake the seat, and Oberacker finally stepped forward in October. After facing down only minor intraparty opposition in the primary, the senator went on to raise more than $1 million through the end of June.

Riley, however, benefited from his long head start to take in close to $5 million. The congressman also ended the second quarter of the year with an imposing $3.2 million to $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage.

Recently, the race drew national attention—of an unwelcome sort for Oberacker—when Politico’s Madison Fernandez reported that the Republican had taken to Facebook in 2015 to craft a Veterans Day post recognizing his grandfather’s service fighting and dying for Nazi Germany in World War II.

Oberacker, who told Fernandez he’d deleted the post at some point over the ensuing decade, added, “Having been on the antisemitism task force for the Senate Republicans, I would look at it a little bit differently now.”

Oberacker’s allies didn’t give any indication that they believed the stumble left him too weakened to win, but an unnamed GOP source told Solender that it was a factor. Oberacker’s “internals have him down,” they said, “[A]nd then there’s the Nazi thing, which is not a killer, but when you add them all up it’s like, ‘eh.’”

The GOP’s increasingly dire prospects in November, though, may be a problem no Republican nominee could have hoped to overcome in a district like this one.

Republicans have long talked about targeting Democratic-held constituencies that Donald Trump only narrowly lost in 2024, such as New Hampshire’s 1st District, an open seat that held its primary on Tuesday. (See our NH-01 item below.) Trump’s poor approval ratings, however, have left candidates like Oberacker struggling to persuade skeptical voters who elected a Democrat in 2024 to back a Republican this time.

Oberacker, though, has the dubious distinction of being the first House nominee of 2026 whose allies have canceled ad time intended to help him win a difficult race, a practice often referred to as triage. But he’s unlikely to be the last.

While Republican outside groups enjoy a considerable financial advantage over their Democratic counterparts, their funds are not unlimited. The GOP still needs to protect as many of its vulnerable seats as possible while also going after Democrats defending red turf. As the polls grow worse, blue-titling districts become a luxury Republicans can ill afford to target.

As the general election approaches, then, major groups will have to decide where to spend more and where to scale back—and even which races to give up on altogether.

Sometimes, top spenders triage contests because they feel their nominee is well ahead and want to free up money for more competitive races. Oberacker, though, does not fall into that happy category.

What also stands out is how early in the election cycle CLF’s move has come. The four top groups involved in House races only began to triage in late September in both 2020 and 2022, and not until the end of October in 2024.

But while CLF and the NRCC seem to agree that there’s no use propping up Oberacker, these organizations and their counterparts aren’t monolithic and don’t always agree on which candidates still need help. Outside groups can also resume spending on a race they’d triaged if they believe a candidate they’d counted out is gaining strength in the 11th hour.

For now, though, New York’s 19th District is the only House race any major players have scaled back on, but there will be more.

To keep track of these decisions over the next eight weeks, The Downballot has put together a new installment of our House race triage tracker. This resource, which we’ll continuously update from now until Election Day, keeps tabs on which groups are pulling back on their planned spending, and whether any such decisions favor Democrats or Republicans.

Election Recaps

NH-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John Sununu decisively won their respective primaries on Tuesday ahead of their closely watched general election battle to succeed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat who is not seeking reelection.

Pappas prevailed 65-33 against biochemist Karishma Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who campaigned to his left. The Associated Press estimates that only 88% of the vote is tabulated so this margin may change, but Pappas’ win isn’t in doubt.

Sununu, who had Donald Trump and powerful GOP groups on his side, scored an even larger win against former Sen. Scott Brown, who briefly represented Massachusetts in the upper chamber more than a decade ago. Sununu leads 68-27 with an estimated 84% of the vote in.

NH-01 (D & R) (51-49 Harris)

Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, won a tight Democratic primary for the seat that Pappas is giving up to run for the Senate. With an estimated 91% reporting, Shaheen leads Marine veteran Maura Sullivan 37-35, with Hampton Selectwoman Carleigh Beriont at 22%.

Shaheen will face wealthy developer Anthony DiLorenzo, whom Donald Trump endorsed in July, in the general election for New Hampshire’s 1st District in the eastern part of the state. DiLorenzo outpaced businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky 52-26 with an estimated 88% of the vote tabulated in the GOP primary.

Election Night

RI-Gov (D & R) (56-42 Harris)

Rhode Island is hosting a rare Wednesday primary, but the Ocean State’s biggest race appears to have ended before it even began.

Democratic Gov. Dan McKee has badly trailed Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive who came close to defeating him in 2022, in every publicly available poll of their rematch. Two surveys conducted in late August showed his situation as dire as ever: Emerson College found Foulkes ahead 45-30, while the University of New Hampshire gave her an even larger 56-18 advantage.

McKee, who ascended from the lieutenant governor’s office in 2021 when Gov. Gina Raimondo resigned to join Joe Biden’s Cabinet, beat Foulkes 33-30 the following year, then went on to easily win the general election.

But his first full term has been dominated by vexing problems. The governor’s most high-profile issue is the long-delayed replacement for the Washington Bridge, a major traffic link in the Providence area that abruptly closed in 2023 after state officials declared it structurally unsafe.

Republicans will choose between Aaron Guckian, a former executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association who was the 2022 nominee for lieutenant governor, and Elaine Pelino, a self-described “stand up comedian/host” and “proud MAGA Republican.”

The major party nominees will also face businessman Ken Block, a former Republican running as an independent. UNH’s recent poll showed Foulkes far ahead in a hypothetical three-way race regardless of which Republican advanced, while McKee had just a 1-point edge over Block.

Redistricting Roundup

MO Redistricting, MO Ballot

Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected an emergency request by Republicans to block a ruling by the Missouri Supreme Court forbidding the state from using a new GOP-drawn congressional map on Tuesday, but soon after, a federal district judge said the state could use only that map.

Republicans had asked the U.S. Supreme Court to stay the Missouri court’s ruling last Thursday on a variety of grounds, but Kavanaugh turned them aside without explanation and chose not to refer the matter to his colleagues. (Kavanaugh is responsible for all emergency requests that originate within the jurisdiction of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, a seven-state region that includes Missouri.)

Just minutes later, however, U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark, an appointee of Donald Trump, issued a temporary restraining order barring officials from using anything but the new Republican map, known as HB 1. That order came in a separate lawsuit filed on Friday by Republican Rep. Bob Onder and state Sen. Rick Brattin, the GOP nominee in the 5th District, as well as two Missouri voters.

Because HB 1 was used to conduct last month’s primaries, Clark concluded that switching back to the map used in the previous two election cycles for the November general election would “disenfranchise” voters in violation of the federal Constitution.

He therefore granted the plaintiffs’ motion, “enjoin[ing], on federal law grounds, Secretary of State [Denny] Hoskins—as well as his officers, agents, employees, and attorneys—from implementing, using, publishing, distributing, or mandating the use of any congressional district map other than the HB 1 map for the November 3, 2026 general election.”

However, the Missouri Supreme Court was just as emphatic in instructing election administrators not to use HB 1. Because the map is the target of a referendum seeking to repeal it, the court unanimously held that “HB 1 did not go into effect and will not go into effect unless and until approved by the voters.”

The justices therefore ordered that Hoskins “and all of those acting in concert with him are restrained and enjoined from implementing, using, or mandating the use of the congressional redistricting in HB 1 for the November 2026 general election.”

The dueling rulings could put county clerks in a precarious position. If they implement HB 1, they risk violating an order from the state’s highest court, while if they implement the previous map, they risk violating an order from a federal court.

One election law expert, Chris Geidner, described the two orders as “arguably conflicting,” while another, Justin Levitt, disagreed. Though he sharply criticized Clark’s order on social media, Levitt also said that it’s the only one that’s binding on administrators.

The dispute will likely be resolved soon, however. People Not Politicians, the group sponsoring the referendum, immediately asked the 8th Circuit to stay Clark’s ruling. In a filing, it argued that clerks would face an impossible choice if the decision is not paused.

“If the TRO remains in effect, elections officials will effectively be in contempt of either the Missouri Supreme Court or the federal district court if they implement either HB 1 or the 2022 map, leaving ballots and voters in flux,” lawyers for the group wrote.

Senate

KS-Sen

Republican Sen. Roger Marshall sued more than 700 patients of his obstetrics and gynecology practice over unpaid bills and, through his attorneys, frequently sought garnishments and even arrests, the New York Times’ Sarah Kliff reported on Tuesday.

At least 81 patients were arrested after missing court dates, according to Kliff, including one couple who said they were taken into custody amid an Easter weekend egg hunt with their grandchildren due to an outstanding bill for an emergency hysterectomy. Another woman was sued over a $129 bill nine months after she’d given birth and had her bank account garnished.

In response, a spokesperson for Marshall said the senator had long treated patients regardless of their financial status and added, “Judges issue warrants when people repeatedly miss court dates, not doctors.”

However, as Kliff explains, court documents show that Marshall’s attorneys “repeatedly requested arrest warrants.” He also required patients to sign a contract specifying an 18% interest rate on unpaid balances. Though Marshall gave up his medical practice once he was elected to the House in 2016, Kliff reports that some collection efforts continued even after he entered Congress.

The senator faces an unusually stiff challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor who’s proven to be a strong fundraiser. Several Democratic internal polls conducted over the summer showed a close race, and Republicans haven’t answered with contradictory data.

They have, however, responded with some notable outside spending. A Massachusetts-based super PAC called the Main Street Fund, which was set up the day of the Aug. 4 primary, has spent more than $1.3 million on TV ads that misleadingly stitch together snippets of Hamilton’s sermons to make him look like an extremist.

Hamilton, however, is getting a boost from another new group called People Over Politics, which so far has laid out a little over $840,000 on TV ads hammering Marshall for his efforts to block the release of the Epstein files.

TX-Sen

Two super PACs—one affiliated with Donald Trump and the other with Elon Musk—are at long last helping Republican Ken Paxton in his difficult election battle against Democrat James Talarico.

MAGA Inc. filed reports with the FEC last week disclosing $10 million in spending on Texas’ Senate race, which represents its first significant outlay in any general election this cycle. The investment comes as Trump continues to keep his party guessing as to how much of the group’s $400 million war chest will be directed toward aiding Republican candidates when Trump isn’t on the ballot.

Musk’s America PAC, meanwhile, reported shelling out $1.6 million to boost Paxton. The offensive came less than a week after the group disclosed it had spent $800,000 on behalf of Republican House candidates across the country. It went on to launch ads on Tuesday in the hotly competitive Senate contests in both Iowa and Ohio.

But while Paxton, who has badly trailed Talarico in fundraising, very much needs the support, outside spending can only do so much to offset his financial problems.

As Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin highlights, third-party groups currently need to spend more than twice as much as candidates to reach the same number of viewers. Rubashkin also notes that this gulf will only grow as Election Day draws closer and ad prices climb.

Governors

AK-Gov

Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who oversees Alaska’s elections, has reinstated former state Attorney General Treg Taylor as a candidate for governor after refusing to certify him for the general election ballot last week.

Dahlstrom disqualified Taylor based on a report from the Alaska Public Offices Commission, which recommended rejecting his candidacy because he failed to comply with financial disclosure laws. Those laws require candidates who own rental properties to name their renters, which Taylor, claiming to have 234 tenants, refused to do.

But the lieutenant governor reversed herself on Friday after receiving an analysis from the state attorney general’s office, which Taylor ran until resigning to run for governor last year. That new report, Dahlstrom asserted in a statement, “identified numerous potential discrepancies between filed statements and public records” for dozens of candidates.

“The Department of Law’s informal review has raised questions about the recommendations made on August 31,” she continued. “I will not withhold certification from two candidates on recommendations that, in light of this additional information, I cannot apply with confidence across the field of candidates. Certification decisions have to rest on a process that can be defended as to every candidate.”

(Dahlstrom had also disqualified a candidate for the state House, Republican Jose Tagle, who has likewise been reinstated.)

At a Monday press conference, a spokesperson for the attorney general’s office emphasized that the new review was “limited and expedited,” adding, “This was done over the course of a day and a half. So I can’t emphasize enough that this is a preliminary review. We didn’t have time to contact candidates.”

An attorney for Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy further noted, “And just because there are potential discrepancies, that doesn’t mean that those candidates violated the law.”

When Taylor was initially removed from the ballot, he was replaced by his running mate, businesswoman Candice English, while English was in turn replaced by Taylor’s wife, Jodi Taylor. English will now return to the No. 2 spot.

Taylor finished fifth in last month’s top-four primary, but because former state Sen. Tom Begich dropped out in favor of a fellow Democrat, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the ex-attorney general moved up a slot. However, he faces two other Republicans on November’s ranked-choice ballot: conservative activist Bernadette Wilson and former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson.

Grab Bag

Where Are They Now?

Former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin, a Republican who was elected in 2015 but lost reelection four years later, was sentenced to 60 days in jail on Friday for contempt of court.

The sentence, which began immediately, came after Bevin failed to submit financial documents or attend court hearings concerning a child support case brought by his adopted son. Jonah Bevin, 19, has accused Matt Bevin and his now-former wife, Glenna Bevin, of placing him in a youth facility in Jamaica where he was repeatedly abused.

The former governor, who was arrested Thursday while working as an extra in a Christmas movie, has not sought office since his loss to Democrat Andy Beshear seven years ago. Bevin, however, is still playing a role in two high-profile elections this fall.

Ralph Alvarado, Bevin’s running mate during the 2019 campaign, is the Republican nominee for Kentucky’s 6th District, a conservative open seat that Democrat Zach Dembo is trying to flip.

An Alvarado spokesperson responded to Bevin’s arrest last week by telling Spectrum News 1, “Court orders are not optional, and everyone should comply with the court’s directive. Failure to do so has consequences.” Alvarado himself, however, has yet to comment.

Bevin’s legacy is also a factor in the campaign concerning a constitutional amendment that would restrict the governor’s pardon powers.

The plan, which will go before voters in November, would prohibit the state’s chief executive from issuing pardons within 60 days of an upcoming gubernatorial election. This blackout period would end five weeks following Election Day, when the incumbent has either begun a new term or a new governor has taken office.

Bevin sparked calls for this change in 2019 when he issued more than 600 pardons following his loss to Beshear. The recipients included a convicted murderer whose brother and sister-in-law held a fundraiser for Bevin in 2018, though the outgoing governor ardently denied that it had anything to do with his pardon.

Poll Pile

MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for WDIV and the Detroit News:
- Mike Rogers (R): 46, Abdul El-Sayed (D): 44.
MT-Sen: Peak Insights for Kurt Alme:
- Alme (R): 44, Seth Bodnar (I): 22, Alani Bankhead (D): 19, Kyle Austin (L): 2.
MI-Gov: Glengariff:
- Jocelyn Benson (D): 47, John James (R): 43.
CA-48: SurveyUSA for KGTV:
- Marni von Wilpert (D): 45, Jim Desmond (R): 42.
GA-07: 20/20 Insight for Tony Kozycki:
- Rich McCormick (R-inc): 46, Kozycki (D): 43.
NM-02: SurveyUSA for KOB:
- Gabe Vasquez (D-inc): 46, Greg Cunningham (R): 43.
NV-02: Strategies 360 for Teresa Benitez-Thompson:
- Dave Flippo (R): 45, Benitez-Thompson (D): 42, Lynn Chapman (Independent American Party): 7.
NY-21: Impact Research for Blake Gendebien:
- Anthony Constantino (R): 47, Gendebien (D): 44.
KS-SoS: Public Policy Polling for Jennifer Day:
- Pat Proctor (R): 39, Day (D): 37.
St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics:
- Charlie Crist: 52, Ken Welch (inc): 27.
- Both candidates are Democrats.

How The Downballot reports on and analyzes polls

David Nir — Tue, 08 Sep 2026 12:01:53 GMT

From our earliest days more than two decades ago, election polls have always been of interest to us at The Downballot, since they can tell us a great deal about a given race and the electorate at large. But they also have their limitations, which is why we have strict requirements before we include a poll in our coverage.

These are requirements we’ve adhered to for a long time and have written about before. The world of polling has changed a good deal since the last time we visited the topic in depth, though, so we felt an update was warranted.

Below, we discuss each of our requirements, as well as other factors we take into account to best derive meaning from survey data.

Requirements

Pollster name

Most pollsters have reputations, some good and some bad. Without knowing who conducted a poll, we have no way to place it in the context of that pollster’s other work. And if a pollster is new to us and doesn’t yet have a track record, that’s something we want to know, too—and convey to our readers.

Put another way: If a pollster isn’t proud enough to put their name on their work, what does that say about the quality of the work? By the same token, campaigns and political organizations sometimes try to leak polling data without mentioning who produced it. That’s not acceptable to us.

There’s also the problem of outright fake polls. Fortunately, these are rare, but sniffing them out is part of our job, and if we encounter an unfamiliar name, we always investigate that outfit’s bona fides before referencing their work.

Pollster’s partisan affiliation

If a pollster is a partisan outfit—in other words, if it works for either Republican or Democratic clients—we want to know that, because studies show that partisan polls that become public tend to lean in favor of their own side.

We’re not accusing partisan pollsters of stacking the deck (though it’s possible some might), since most generally want to get an accurate read of the races they’re surveying. But unlike independent pollsters, data from partisan outfits is only ever released selectively by clients, who, of course, have every incentive to share only numbers they believe are favorable to themselves.

Client, if any

Some pollsters conduct and release polls independently—that is, they’re paid for by the pollster themselves. These can include universities and, sometimes, partisan pollsters.

Many polls that get released publicly, however, are conducted for clients. These clients vary widely. Some are nonpartisan news organizations whose goal is to educate the public about where an election stands. Others, by contrast, are internal polls—those conducted for a client who is either directly involved in the election (like a candidate or super PAC) or has a rooting interest.

We accept internal polls, but it’s always important to know when someone might have skin in the game, which is why we strongly prefer when a client’s name is disclosed. Sometimes, however, it is not. In such cases, our next preference is for a general description of who the client is (or isn’t). Whenever we have the necessary information, we will explain what a client’s interest in a race is or might be.

If, however, we can’t determine whether or not there was a client for an internal poll, or who that client might be, we’ll always say so, so that our readers can deploy an appropriate measure of skepticism.

When campaigns or those with a rooting interest in a race release internal polls, they almost always do so to support a particular narrative, to boost fundraising, or both. Always be on the lookout for such possibilities.

Sample size

If a pollster has contacted too few voters, the results are more apt to be off-base—and also more apt to fluctuate without cause from poll to poll. In the polling industry, a sample size of 300 is often considered the bare minimum acceptable for a poll, and it’s therefore the minimum we require to include a poll in our coverage.

Human respondents

Polls must test the opinions of actual human beings. We do not accept simulated responses created by artificial intelligence or other tools.

Field dates

Knowing when a poll was actually conducted is crucial. Is the data recent? Or is it old? Naturally, we strongly prefer fresh numbers, but campaigns and other organizations will often release dusty polls that may no longer reflect the state of play. In those cases, we often will decline to write them up—they’re old news.

We don’t have a hard and fast cutoff, but generally speaking, if a poll is more than a month old, we’re unlikely to include it. The further away we are from an election, the more flexible we’ll be. Conversely, as we get closer to Election Day, this window will shrink.

In addition, sometimes a major development will take place while a poll is in the field, or immediately afterwards. By knowing the field dates, we can be on the lookout for any news that might have affected the numbers that the poll might not have been able to account for due to its timing.

If a poll is in the field too long, that can render the data suspect. It increases the chance that voters’ views may have shifted from the start of the field period to its end, especially if there’s been a noteworthy intervening event. If a poll has been in the field for more than 14 days, our practice is not to write it up.

Likewise, if a poll is in the field for just a single day, that can reduce its chances of reaching a representative sample of voters. We do not set a minimum field period for including a poll; this is just an issue to be aware of.

Toplines

It’s not enough to just know a candidate is ahead by 3 points. There’s a world of difference between a race where one candidate leads another 51-48, where there aren’t many voters left undecided, and one where a candidate leads 43-40, where a sizable proportion of voters are still up for grabs.

We therefore need to know the actual percentage of the vote each candidate is getting in the poll in question, not just the margin between them. (All too often, press reports will only supply the latter.)

Undecided voters

One of the most important numbers in a poll is how many voters are still undecided between candidates. If a pollster does not allow voters to say they’re still making up their minds and instead forces them to choose a side, they’re leaving out a critical piece of information about the state of the race. We therefore do not publish polls that do not offer some form of “undecided” as an option.

Voter screen

A pollster should always indicate whether they’ve spoken with registered voters (that is, those whose names simply appear on voter registration rolls) or likely voters (those who, by using some type of filter, the pollster thinks are actually likely to vote in the election in question). While these are the two most common ways of screening voters, pollsters will sometimes use more customized models of the electorate. In any case, pollsters should explain their methodology.

Sometimes pollsters will provide results for more than one model. We always report data for likely voters, or whichever model comes closest to approximating a traditional definition of likely voters. Occasionally, a pollster will release a poll surveying only “adults” rather than voters. We don’t report on these sorts of polls because they don’t reflect the electorate (many adults are not registered to vote).

Candidate names

We only report polls that identify candidates by name (excluding generic congressional ballot or generic legislative ballot questions). In other words, a survey that asks whether respondents support “the Republican, John Smith, or a Democrat” without naming the latter will not pass muster with us.

Partisan identification of candidates

In partisan elections (which represent the overwhelming majority of races we cover), many voters make decisions about which candidates to support based on their partisan affiliation. Therefore, pollsters should identify candidates to respondents by the party they’ll be identified with on the ballot.

If a pollster doesn’t include this information, then they’re leaving out important details and failing to accurately mimic the way voters will make their choices when they actually cast their ballots. We therefore do not accept polls that do not provide respondents with candidates’ partisan affiliations.

Initial ballot

A proper horserace poll asks respondents which candidate they support before sharing any information about any candidates. This is known as the “initial ballot,” and it’s the only type of question we’ll accept.

Many surveys—almost always internal polls—also share information about the candidates, whether positive, negative, or both. These are known as “informed ballot” questions, and they can be very useful tools for campaigns and their allies seeking to understand which messages will be most powerful when communicated to voters.

However, they describe a hypothetical world in which respondents have just been exposed to information that may or may not wind up reaching the broader electorate. For instance, a candidate might trail by 10 points on an initial ballot question but lead by 10 points on an informed ballot question. The latter reflects an idealized situation that can never be fully replicated in real life.

We do not report the results of informed ballot questions. However, when necessary, we may note their existence to help explain why someone might release an internal poll that might otherwise appear unfavorable.

Unfortunately, unscrupulous campaigns and their supporters sometimes release informed ballot tests in ways that make them appear to be initial ballot tests. This is a shameful practice, but it’s one we’re always on guard for.

If someone publishing a poll doesn’t make the above information publicly available or adhere to the practices we describe, then we will not include it, barring rare exceptions.

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Other things we look at

In addition to the requirements above, there are a number of other things we look at when examining every poll we come across. Not all of these apply to every single poll, but the questions below are always important to think about.

Did the pollster push “leaners”?

Sometimes, pollsters will ask undecided voters which candidate they “lean” toward. This practice is known as “pushing leaners” and usually yields useful information about voter preferences. If a pollster provides numbers with and without leaners, we will report the numbers that include leaners.

What kinds of questions did the pollster ask before getting to the “horserace” (i.e., the head-to-head matchups between candidates)?

Pollsters sometimes ask issue-related questions, and best practices dictate they should be asked after the horserace. That’s because these kinds of questions can “prime” voters to lean one way or the other, especially if they’re on contentious topics or asked in ways that suggest the pollster has an axe to grind.

How did the pollster ask about an office holder’s job approval rating?

The best way is to ask whether voters simply approve or disapprove (potentially including whether they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve or disapprove). Sometimes, however, pollsters will ask along a four-point scale, such as “excellent,” “good,” “fair,” or “poor.”

That “fair” (or sometimes “just fair”) is a very tricky phrase. To some voters, that might be closer to “good”; to others, closer to “poor.” Because of that ambiguity, we generally do not report on approval ratings when they’re asked this way.

Did the pollster include every credible candidate in the race?

Sometimes, pollsters will leave out one or more credible candidates. For primary polling, this can make the numbers significantly less useful. (By contrast, sometimes a candidate will have dropped out or entered the race after a pollster has conducted a survey but before it releases the data. This is a problem, too.)

Judgment, however, is often necessary. Who qualifies as “credible” is something every pollster struggles with, especially in races with large fields of candidates. Asking respondents to sit through a question featuring a dozen or even 20 candidates risks making it harder to obtain completed interviews.

However, if we feel a notable candidate has not been included but should have been, we likely won’t cover the poll, though if we do, we’ll be sure to note the omission.

In addition, public releases of internal polls conducted before primaries often do not include all potential general election matchups between credible candidates. This doesn’t call into question the accuracy of the poll, but it does leave open the question as to whether other candidates fare better. (There’s a good chance that other names were tested but just not included in such a release.)

Conversely, a candidate may include primary rivals when releasing data on the general election, often to argue that they would fare best. Data on such matchups merits skepticism since the candidate who paid for the poll has an incentive to want their primary opponents to look worse.

What languages did the pollster interview respondents in?

The majority of the time, English alone will suffice. But in some jurisdictions with large Latino populations, it’s hard—if not impossible—to get an accurate read on the electorate without also conducting interviews in other languages, most frequently Spanish and/or Chinese.

Has the pollster also provided a breakdown of its sample composition and/or its crosstabs?

In an ideal world, pollsters would always tell us the basics about their sample, including the proportion of respondents by gender, party affiliation, age, race/ethnicity, and other demographics. Unfortunately, many don’t, which requires us to trust that they’ve produced a sample that’s likely to reflect the electorate (and therefore requires us to exercise greater skepticism).

Similarly, crosstabs allow us, for instance, to see the proportion of men vs. women who say they’ll vote for a particular candidate. That gives us richer data to analyze, and also helps us evaluate the accuracy of a poll. But always be careful: Sub-samples are smaller than the total sample, so they are correspondingly less likely to be accurate.

For instance, a national poll of 500 people might include only 60 Black respondents. While that’s likely an appropriately representative proportion, examining the views of Black voters on the basis of such a small sample is something we avoid.

How has the poll been weighted?

After a pollster has contacted respondents, they’ll almost certainly wind up with a sample that does not reflect the electorate they expect to see on Election Day because various demographics tend to respond to polls at a higher rate than other populations. Therefore, pollsters need to “weight” their sample so that it resembles the electorate they expect to see, giving more weight to under-represented groups and vice-versa.

There are many different criteria by which a poll can be weighted, including demographic (such as race, gender, age, and educational attainment) and political (such as party affiliation, ideology, or how a person says they’ve voted in the past).

There’s no one recipe for achieving accuracy, and over the years, pollsters have continually modified their approach. For instance, weighting by education was once less common but became largely standard after the 2016 elections, when education levels emerged as a meaningful political dividing line.

More recently, it’s become more common for pollsters to rely more heavily on political characteristics in their weighting, such as recalled vote. Such metrics can pose complications—people don’t always remember how they voted, for instance, or may not tell the truth, and how they voted in one election may not correspond with how they vote in the next one. Many pollsters, though, believe that weighting in this manner will improve accuracy.

What is the source of the polling data?

The quality of the actual presentation of polling data can vary widely. Polls from independent pollsters (such as colleges and universities) and those conducted for media outlets, for instance, typically include all of the information we require and more, presented in a transparent way.

However, internal polling can surface in a variety of ways. In the best cases, sponsors share formal polling memos that include the information we need. Other releases are more fragmentary and may emerge in a news article or social media post. In such cases, we will only rely on data shared by reliable outlets.

We do not accept polls from low-quality, anonymous engagement farms on social media that often share data without providing any links.

Has the pollster professed any beliefs that reflect conspiracy theories about elections or election denialism?

We take a heterodox approach to polling—there are many ways to get it right, and no one has a monopoly on the truth. But the truth is what we all must seek. Excluding polls is not something we do lightly, but when a pollster espouses beliefs about elections that are demonstrably false, we are unable to conclude that such a person does in fact believe in seeking the truth.

Such firms include the Trafalgar Group, McLaughlin & Associates, and Rasmussen Reports. We remain vigilant in looking out for any other such outfits.

We are especially grateful to Mary Radcliffe and G. Elliott Morris of FiftyPlusOne, who generously offered valuable feedback for this piece. We also consulted FiftyPlusOne’s own methodology statement and drew several helpful ideas from it.

Weekly open thread

James Lambert — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 21:00:20 GMT

Want to join the conversation? Paid subscribers get full access to the comments and help keep this space thriving.

Morning Digest: Missouri's top court blocks new GOP gerrymander by reinstating referendum

David Nir — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 12:00:42 GMT

Missouri’s newly reinstated congressional map, shaded according to their performance in the 2024 presidential election (credit: Dave’s Redistricting Map)

The Downballot will be taking a short break for Labor Day weekend. We’ll be back in your inbox with a special report on Tuesday, and the Morning Digest will return on Wednesday. Have a great holiday!

Leading Off

MO Ballot, MO Redistricting

Democracy advocates won two major legal victories on Thursday evening when the Missouri Supreme Court reinstated a pair of ballot measures for the November midterms, one seeking to repeal the state’s new congressional map and the other aimed at cracking down on the legislature’s ability to interfere with direct democracy.

In the redistricting case, the court unanimously ruled that Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins was not empowered to reject the referendum, which was filed by a group called People Not Politicians.

Last month, Hoskins refused to certify the measure, saying that the state constitution “does not authorize a referendum on congressional redistricting passed by the Missouri General Assembly.”

The justices, however, sharply disagreed. In a 14-page opinion, they concluded that “the plain language” of the constitution “authorizes a referendum as to ‘any act of the general assembly’ and no exception applies.” The effort to place the repeal on the ballot was therefore “legal, sufficient, and timely.”

Because a law targeted by a referendum is retroactively suspended until a vote can be held once the measure is certified, the court further ordered that the state’s new Republican-drawn gerrymander not be used in November.

Instead, it said that the district adopted by lawmakers in 2022 “remain in full force and effect for the November 2026 general election.” The new map would only come into effect if a majority of voters approve it in the referendum vote.

State Attorney General Catherine Hanaway immediately said she would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court.

If the ruling stands, though, its most dramatic impact will be felt in the 5th Congressional District, a Democratic bastion based in Kansas City that was the GOP’s chief target. Republicans had sought to oust longtime Rep. Emanuel Cleaver by carving up the city and dividing it between three districts.

The revamped 5th would have stretched almost from the state border with Kansas deep into rural central Missouri some 200 miles away, ensuring that it would have voted for Donald Trump by a wide 58-40 margin.

Now, though, it’s been restored to its previous configuration, a compact district that instead supported Kamala Harris 61-38. (We’ve updated our database of presidential election results by congressional district to reflect the new ruling.)

Cleaver had forged ahead with his campaign for reelection despite the new gerrymander, but now he’ll be the heavy favorite to win a 12th term.

Thursday’s ruling could also be felt in the 2nd District, a Republican-held seat in the St. Louis suburbs and exurbs that the GOP sought to make somewhat redder to shore up Rep. Ann Wagner.

The new map would have given Trump a 55-43 win in the 2nd, but that will now drop back to 53-45. Wagner faces a challenge from Democrat Fred Wellman, an Army veteran and podcast host.

The court did not say, however, how election officials should handle the fact that primaries were held last month under the now-suspended map, though officials have several options.

Under one scenario, the state could simply allow nominees to keep running in the district with the same number, even though different lines were used in the primary. State law also allows parties to pick new nominees in the event of vacancies, though it’s not clear whether the relevant deadlines have passed.

Another option would be to hold new primaries on Nov. 3, with a general election to follow. Still another possibility would be to switch to an all-party election in November, with a runoff if no one wins a majority. This approach was used in Texas in 2006 when the U.S. Supreme Court invalidated part of the state’s congressional map after the primary but before the general election.

While Republicans could potentially try to pass another gerrymander next year even if voters shoot down their most recent plan in November, the Missouri Supreme Court’s restoration of the proposed amendment to prohibit legislative tampering with citizen-sponsored initiatives could render that impossible.

Hoskins likewise rejected that measure, which is sponsored by a group called Respect Missouri Voters, saying at a press conference that it violated the state constitution’s prohibition on amendments that address more than a single subject.

The problem, though, was that he didn’t say so in a legally required document explaining his reasons called a certificate of insufficiency. In another unanimous opinion, the state Supreme Court upbraided Hoskins for his failure.

“Because his certificate fails to identify any reason the petition is insufficient under the Missouri Constitution, it does not comply with section 116.150.2 and preserves nothing for this Court’s review,” the justices wrote, referring to the statute in question.

The court, though, nonetheless addressed Hoskins’ “unpreserved” arguments about the single-subject requirement, saying they “lack merit.” The amendment’s provisions all “relate to the single overarching subject of ‘protecting Missouri citizens’ constitutionally reserved lawmaking power,’” the court said.

Those provisions would amend the state constitution to make the ability to bring initiatives and referendums a “fundamental right” and bar lawmakers from weakening either of these powers.

It would further prevent the legislature from repealing or modifying laws passed by initiative—and, crucially for the purposes of redistricting, repassing laws rejected via referendum—unless a four-fifths supermajority in both chambers agrees.

In addition, it would enshrine the current requirements for the signatures necessary to place a measure on the ballot and would also affirm that only a simple statewide majority is required to approve an initiative or referendum. Lastly, it would allow the courts to rewrite misleading summary statements drafted by elected officials.

Election Night

New Hampshire holds its primaries on Tuesday, with contests for the U.S. Senate and the 1st Congressional District sharing center stage on one of the final primary nights of 2026. Below, we preview both contests.

NH-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John Sununu are favored to win their respective primaries for the Granite State’s open Senate seat, but they still need to dispatch stubborn intraparty opponents.

Pappas, who has the support of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other prominent Democrats, spent most of the campaign with seemingly little to fear from Karishma Manzur, a biochemist and member of the Democratic Socialists of America.

A late August poll from the University of New Hampshire, however, showed Pappas with just a 47-34 edge over his underfunded opponent. The congressman’s team quickly responded by releasing an internal poll from GQR showing him with a huge 71-15 advantage over Manzur.

Sununu, who is running for office for the first time since he lost this same seat to Shaheen in 2008, has the support of Donald Trump and powerful GOP groups like the National Republican Senatorial Committee for his comeback.

His opponent is former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown, who moved north after his 2012 loss to Elizabeth Warren only to lose to Shaheen in 2014. Every publicly available poll, though, shows Sununu easily defeating Brown.

NH-01 (D & R) (51-49 Harris)

Eight Democrats are on the ballot for the eastern New Hampshire constituency Pappas is leaving behind, but most of the attention has focused on the expensive battle between two of them.

Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, posted wide leads in every survey through June. But Marine veteran Maura Sullivan, who lost the 2018 primary to Pappas, picked up support in the final months of the campaign. A trio of recent surveys shows Sullivan leading Shaheen by between 2 to 6 percentage points.

Carleigh Beriont, a member of the town council in Hampton and lecturer at Harvard University, is hoping to take advantage of the rumble between Shaheen and Sullivan by positioning herself as a progressive alternative to the two frontrunners. She got a boost late in the campaign when state Rep. Heath Howard dropped out and endorsed Beriont.

Attorney Christian Urrutia has also raised a notable sum, but he’s struggled to generate media attention or support in the polls. Three underfunded candidates round out the field.

Republicans have a smaller field of four to sort through, though two candidates have likewise seized most of the attention.

Wealthy developer Anthony DiLorenzo has Trump’s endorsement, and he’s spent considerably more than his rivals. But businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky, who took a close second place in the 2024 primary to face Pappas, is hoping for a different result this time. State Rep. Brian Cole and a little-known contender named Lindsey Anderson round out the race.

A pair of recent polls disagree on whether DiLorenzo or Noveletsky has the advantage going into Tuesday. Saint Anselm College placed DiLorenzo ahead 30-17, while UNH gave Noveletsky a narrow 28-25 lead.

Next week’s elections will mark the last time that New Hampshire, long known for its first-in-the-nation presidential primaries, holds nomination contests for congressional and state-level office near the end of the election cycle. A new law moves them to the second Tuesday in June starting in 2028, a time when many other states go to the polls.

But while New Hampshire remains almost last for the 2026 primary season, it’s not quite the closing act. Rhode Island will vote just one day later on Wednesday, a day state leaders picked to avoid going to the polls immediately after Labor Day. Delaware, finally, holds the last primary of the year on Sept. 15.

Redistricting Roundup

MD Redistricting

Maryland’s Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that a Democratic-backed amendment to make it easier for lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map can go before voters in November, overturning a pair of lower courts that had blocked the proposal.

In a 5-2 decision, however, the court concluded that a portion of the language that was set to appear on ballots was “misleading” and ordered that different wording take its place.

The amendment clarifies that the state constitution’s criteria for drawing electoral districts, which include compactness, contiguity, and regard for “natural boundaries and the boundaries of political subdivisions,” apply only to maps for the legislature and not for Congress.

It further specifies that no part of the constitution “provides applicable criteria for the boundaries of a congressional districting plan.” In 2022, a state judge struck down a Democratic-drawn map on the grounds that it violated the state constitution as a partisan gerrymander. If voters approve the new amendment, such a ruling would no longer be possible.

That would give Democrats free rein to pass a new map targeting the 1st Congressional District, the only Republican-held seat in the state.

Judges

NC Supreme Court

Democrats got a potential boost in their multi-year quest to retake North Carolina’s Supreme Court on Thursday when Republican Justice Phil Berger Jr. announced he wouldn’t seek reelection in 2028. However, it’s still possible he could instead seek a more powerful spot on the state’s highest court.

Berger, who is part of the body’s 5-2 Republican majority, made his announcement two months before the closely watched race between Democratic Justice Anita Earls and Republican Sarah Stevens, a former state representative.

While the contest between Earls and Stevens, who badly trails the incumbent in fundraising, won’t change the balance of power, it’s still a key step in the Democrats’ drive to flip the body two years from now.

If Earls secures a new eight-year term this fall, her party would next need to win races for two of the three GOP-held seats that will be on the ballot in 2028. A Stevens victory, conversely, would require Democrats to sweep all of them.

Either outcome would have placed Berger, the son and namesake of state Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger, at the center of a heated race during the next presidential election.

And he may still be. While Berger revealed Thursday that he won’t seek another term as an associate justice, his statement included the line, “As for what comes next, I am giving serious thought to other ways I might serve the people of this state.”

Berger declined to reveal more, but the conservative site Carolina Journal suggested he could run for chief justice next cycle. That position, which is directly elected by voters, is currently held by Republican Paul Newby, who won a tight race in 2020 on the same night Berger was elected to replace him as an associate justice.

It remains to be seen, though, what Newby, who will be 73 in 2028, will do. While the state requires judges to retire at age 76, the law still allows Newby to seek a partial term and serve through the end of May of 2031.

Should Newby decide against running again, however, plenty of Republicans are sure to eye his office. And they may not be inclined to defer to Berger, whose powerful father narrowly lost his March primary to remain in the legislature.

If Berger does run for chief justice, though, he’d be following the path Newby himself took just a few years ago on his way to becoming one of the most influential politicians in the Tar Heel State.

Newby, who was elected associate justice in 2004, was the only Republican on the seven-member body in 2020 when he opted to give up his seat to challenge Chief Justice Cheri Beasley, a Democrat. That same year, Berger ran to succeed Newby, while Republican Tamara Barringer campaigned against Democratic Justice Mark Davis.

All three Republicans narrowly prevailed in their respective statewide races, with Newby winning by just 401 votes—a margin of 50.004 to 49.996. Berger and Barringer both won 51-49.

Democrats still maintained a 4-3 majority after that tough night, but it wouldn’t last much longer. Two more Republicans, Trey Allen and Richard Dietz, flipped Democratic-held seats in 2022, giving their party a 5-2 edge on the Supreme Court.

Newby, who now had both the authority of the chief justice and a partisan majority to back him up, swiftly set about exercising his new power.

While the outgoing Democratic majority had ruled in December of 2022 that partisan gerrymandering violated the state constitution, Newby authored the decision overturning it the following April. Republicans in the legislature quickly passed a new congressional map that eliminated three Democratic seats and made a fourth one considerably redder.

Newby has also made extensive use of his influence over judicial bodies across the state. In an in-depth profile of Newby last year in ProPublica, Doug Bock Clark explained how the chief justice demoted or forced out “as many as nine senior judges with little public explanation.”

And it’s not just judges who are in danger. Clark’s sources said Newby’s team ejected many court employees who were “outspoken liberals or openly LGBTQ+” and replaced them with ardent conservatives.

Newby and his allies could soon see their power grow even more dramatically. The GOP-dominated legislature recently passed a bill that would allow the Republican justices to unilaterally remove their Democratic colleagues—including Earls—from the bench. Democratic Gov. Josh Stein denounced the proposal in vetoing it last month, but an override remains possible.

But while the GOP’s back-to-back wins in 2020 and 2022 left Republicans in control of the bench, Democrats soon began planning a long-term push to retake the court in 2028. First, they had to focus on defending the two seats they still held.

They achieved step one in 2024 when Justice Allison Riggs defeated Republican challenger Jefferson Griffin by 734 votes, a loss Griffin would spend six months attempting to overturn.

A win for Earls this fall, meanwhile, would give Democrats another key victory heading into the crucial 2028 election year, when Newby, Berger, and Barringer’s seats will be on the ballot.

Poll Pile

IA-Sen: Emerson College for Nexstar:
- Ashley Hinson (R): 50, Josh Turek (D): 45.
- Aug.: 48-45 Hinson.
NH-Sen: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for the NRSC:
- John Sununu (R): 37, Chris Pappas (D): 36, all others 1% or less.
IA-Gov: Emerson:
- Rob Sand (D): 49, Zach Lahn (R): 46.
- Aug.: 48-43 Sand.
NY-Gov: Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy:
- Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 50, Bruce Blakeman (R): 34.
- Education Reform Now Advocacy is an affiliate of Democrats for Education Reform. In May, DFER praised Hochul for signaling her support for a new federal school voucher program, but she has yet to decide whether New York will participate.
FL-09: SEA Research & Political Design for Darren Soto:
- Soto (D-inc): 41, Dan Green (R): 41.
FL-16: SEA for Kelly Kirschner:
- Kirschner (D): 40, Sydney Gruters (R): 39.

Morning Digest: Massachusetts could adopt a top-two primary. Democrats are warning of disaster.

David Nir — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 12:04:46 GMT

Democratic Rep. Pete Aguilar lost his first bid for Congress thanks to a top-two lockout in a blue district in California. Massachusetts Democrats are warning of similar disasters should their state adopt top-two primaries. (Credit: Pete Aguilar Facebook)

Leading Off

MA Ballot

Massachusetts just held its party primaries using the same rules familiar to most American voters, but a fall ballot measure would bring the top-two system to the Bay State.

The approval of this plan, known as Question 3, would require the state to follow the same approach as California and Washington. In the primary, all candidates from all parties would compete on a single ballot rather than in separate partisan contests. The two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, would then advance to the general election.

Question 3, which would take effect on Jan. 1, 2028, would apply to races for the U.S. House and Senate as well as state-level posts like governor and the legislature. The top-two rules would not, however, apply to elections for president.

The plan’s proponents argue that it would introduce more competition to a liberal state where Democratic primaries are almost always tantamount to election.

“Right now, too many legislators face meaningful political pressure only from party insiders or a narrow segment of primary voters, and too many legislators fear competition more than inaction,” Danielle Allen, a prominent Harvard University professor who chairs the group behind Question 3, wrote in a March essay for the Boston Globe.

Allen, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for governor in 2022, also argued that Massachusetts residents are already used to holding elections this way. Many cities, including Boston, require candidates for mayor and other municipal offices to run on a single ballot, though in these contests, contenders aren’t listed by party affiliation.

But while there’s never any question that anyone who wins a general election to lead dark-blue communities like Boston will identify as a Democrat, the proposal’s critics point out that the top-two primary has led to negative consequences elsewhere.

“California ran this experiment. The results are terrible,” Democratic state Rep. Andres Vargas said last week in a statement released by Voter Rights MA, a coalition urging a “no” vote. “In one race, four Democrats split the vote in a majority-minority district Obama won by sixteen points. Yet, because of the top two system, those voters spent November choosing between only two Republicans.”

That nightmare scenario occurred in 2012 in California’s 31st District, a largely Latino constituency that Democrat Pete Aguilar seemed poised to win. The presence of three minor Democrats on the primary ballot, however, resulted in none of them moving forward.

Instead, GOP Rep. Gary Miller took first with 27%, while state Sen. Bob Dutton, the only other Republican on the ballot, edged out Aguilar 25-23 for the crucial second-place spot. Miller went on to defeat Dutton that fall even though Barack Obama carried the 31st District by a wide 57-41 margin against Mitt Romney.

Democrats were determined to avoid a repeat two years later after Miller opted to retire rather than try his luck again, but Aguilar still came close to getting left out in the cold. This time, though, he narrowly secured second place before prevailing in the fall. He continues to represent the district to this day and is now the third-ranking Democrat in the House.

But this experience and other near-misses in the Golden State over the ensuing decade—plus a 2016 debacle in Washington that saw two Republicans advance in the race for state treasurer—have left California Democrats fearful about any chance of a lockout. A prominent Democratic consultant is now spearheading a 2028 amendment to repeal the top-two primary, a campaign that began this spring amidst a chaotic race for governor.

Stress over the top-two primary dominated June’s contest as Democrats fretted that their huge field of hopefuls could divide the state’s large liberal-leaning bloc enough for the two leading Republicans, former Fox News host Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, to move forward.

While it was always unlikely that such a lockout could come to pass, the very idea dominated conversation and strategy about the race for months. The anxiety grew so intense that the chair of the Democratic Party, Rusty Hicks, even released an open letter in March urging any Democrat who didn’t “have a viable path” not to place their name on the ballot—a move that sparked a backlash.

“There are people who are calling for candidates to get out of the race,” former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, a Democrat who hovered around 5% in the polls at the time, said at a debate. “Isn’t it interesting that the candidates they are asking to get out of the race are the candidates of color?”

Hicks’ intervention failed to convince almost any low-polling candidates—including Becerra, who was hoping to become the first Latino to be elected governor—to drop out of the race. Two major events in April, however, dramatically altered the playing field.

The first came when Donald Trump endorsed Hilton, a move that helped the candidate consolidate Republican voters who might have otherwise backed Bianco. Then, less than a week later, Rep. Eric Swalwell, one of the leading Democrats, dropped out of the race after multiple women accused him of sexual assault.

Becerra, once an afterthought, benefited from the chaos and soon surged in the polls. Ultimately, it was Republicans who almost wound up on the wrong side of a lockout: Becerra took first with 28% while Hilton edged out billionaire Tom Steyer, the other top Democrat, just 25-22.

But while California’s primary didn’t produce the disaster Democrats feared—Becerra is now all but assured of defeating Hilton in the fall—Voter Rights MA is framing the contest as a warning for voters in Massachusetts.

“[California] voters were pressured to abandon their candidate of choice in order to get behind the most well-funded candidates in order to not spoil the election for their party, with a billionaire almost buying his way into the general election,” the group says on its website.

The organization, however, has work to do to convince voters ahead of the general election. A poll conducted in mid-August by UMass Amherst and YouGov showed 51% of voters in support of Question 3, with only 32% against. No other polling has been released all summer.

Question 3’s detractors, though, may have reason to be optimistic that voters will ultimately balk at making major changes to their elections. In 2020, the last time Massachusetts had such an opportunity, voters rejected a proposal to institute ranked-choice voting by a 55-45 margin.

And last cycle, voters in seven other states spurned ballot measures that would have changed their election systems in various ways, including implementing ranked-choice voting and replacing party primaries with top-four or top-five primaries. A plan to bring ranked-choice voting to Washington, D.C., though, did pass overwhelmingly.

Unlike some very shady political influencers who secretly accept money in exchange for endorsing candidates—and yes, this really happens—The Downballot is always completely transparent about our sponsors. We’ve worked hard over many years to earn your trust, and we know we can lose it in an instant.

If you appreciate our deep commitment to transparency while we deliver our unique coverage of overlooked elections, then we hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription today. Every word we write is because we believe in it, not because someone is lining our pockets on the sly.

The Downballot Podcast

How Democratic ‘spam PACs’ victimize vulnerable seniors

We’ve all been bombarded with those histrionic text messages making over-the-top requests for donations, but they’re more than just annoying—there are hidden victims of these hyper-aggressive fundraising practices.

On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica discusses his deep investigation into the ways Democratic organizations are deploying these frenzied messages, which end up exploiting many senior citizens—some of whom have responded by donating literally thousands of times.

But the harm runs even deeper. As Bonica explains, even as these techniques rake in huge sums from the elderly, they’ve alienated many other donors. That’s created a serious risk of a broader crash in grassroots fundraising that could seriously undermine Democrats, something Republicans have already experienced thanks to their own slash-and-burn approach.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday’s primaries in Massachusetts and preview next week’s contests in New Hampshire and Rhode Island. Finally, they make sense of the chaos in Alaska, where a deadline for candidates to drop out following the state’s unique top-four primary prompted a reshuffle of the November ballot in all of the top races.

Senate

SC-Sen

Rep. Ralph Norman put out a statement Wednesday pledging to “support our Republican nominee” for Senate, a move that came two days after he advised undecided voters, “Vote for Ralph Norman.”

Last week, Norman narrowly lost a runoff to appointed Sen. Darline Graham, whom Donald Trump ardently backed. Graham faces Democrat Annie Andrews this fall.

Poll Pile

KS-Sen: GSG for People Over Politics Action Fund (anti-Roger Marshall)
- Adam Hamilton (D): 44, Marshall (R-inc): 43, David Graham (L): 5.
TX-Sen: Overton Insights for the Texas Public Policy Foundation:
- James Talarico (D): 44, Ken Paxton (R): 43.
TX-Gov: Overton:
- Greg Abbott (R-inc): 47, Gina Hinojosa (D): 46.
AZ-02: GBAO for Jonathan Nez:
- Eli Crane (R-inc): 46, Nez (D): 44.
- A GBAO poll conducted for Nez in June showed Crane leading 44-41. However, that survey included Libertarian Curtis Goodwin, who took 7%. The release for this new poll did not mention Goodwin.
NH-01 (D): Tavern Research:
- Maura Sullivan: 33, Stefany Shaheen: 27, Carleigh Beriont: 12, all others 4% or less.
TX-35: Normington, Petts & Associates for House Majority PAC:
- Carlos De La Cruz (R): 45, Johnny Garcia (D): 44.

How Democratic 'spam PACs' victimize vulnerable seniors

David Nir — Thu, 03 Sep 2026 11:02:51 GMT

On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, Stanford political scientist Adam Bonica discusses his deep investigation into the ways Democratic organizations and “spam PACs” are deploying these frenzied messages, which end up exploiting many senior citizens—some of whom have responded by donating literally thousands of times.

Morning Digest: Families of dead Americans don't want Republicans to use them in ads. The GOP isn't stopping.

David Nir — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 12:02:54 GMT

(credit: screenshot from ad paid for by the NRSC and authorized by Husted for Senate)

Leading Off

NC-Sen, OH-Sen

Republicans are facing a backlash in two crucial Senate races from family members condemning the GOP for using their loved ones’ tragic deaths to attack Democrats.

North Carolina resident Ronald Hayes told NC Newsline this week that he was deceived by the Senate Leadership Fund, which he said had asked him to discuss the 2024 murder of his 23-year-old son Shemar on camera for what he believed would be an ad on the scourge of gun violence.

Instead, SLF, the top GOP super PAC involved in Senate races, produced a commercial attacking Democrat Roy Cooper, falsely suggesting the former governor had allowed Shemar’s killer to leave prison early.

“Once I saw the commercial, I called [the ad makers] back, and I asked them again, and they stated again that they are independent,” Hayes said. “I told them that I felt that this was deceiving, it was conniving, and it was sneaky how they used me and my family to get out their word.”

The incident came just days after the National Republican Senatorial Committee drew condemnation for airing an ad in Ohio blaming former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s votes for an April collision that claimed the lives of a family of three.

“Sherrod Brown opened our borders to dangerous illegals—the consequences were deadly,” the narrator claims. The commercial then plays audio of a reporter saying that a man named Modou Ngom “was behind the wheel of this semi-truck” when it crashed—resulting in the deaths of Lynnea and Luke Soposki and their one-year-old son—as a photo of the deceased family fills the screen.

In response, relatives of the Soposkis expressed their deep displeasure with the ad.

“Footage of the crash site and a photograph of the three of them are being used, without our consent, in an advertisement from Senator Jon Husted’s campaign,” the family said in a statement posted by Lynnea’s brother, Jesse Mallen. “Our grief is not raw material for a campaign.”

Mallen told the New York Times that the family only made their objections public after receiving no response from the Husted campaign, which approved the spot, according to the ad’s disclaimer.

“What we all want is to be able to grieve in peace and privacy, and for our family to not be used in such a classless way by a politician, especially without being consulted,” Mallen told the paper. “We certainly would not have said yes, but quite frankly, I think they knew that.”

Husted initially declined to comment about the commercial linking Brown to Ngom, whom federal authorities have accused of using fraudulent identities to become an American citizen. The senator, though, finally told reporters on Saturday that he wanted the commercial to stop running.

“Our campaign had nothing to do with it,” Husted said in remarks quoted by the Columbus Dispatch, even though the ad says at the end that it was “authorized by Husted for Senate.”

“As soon as we learned that the family didn’t like the ad, we told the people who put it up to take it down,” he continued. “They’ve suffered enough. They don’t need to suffer any more.”

The commercial, however, is still on the NRSC’s YouTube account, something Mallen highlighted in his interview with the paper. He also said that Husted’s campaign never contacted him or other family members after they went public.

The SLF’s spot targeting Cooper in North Carolina, likewise, remains online, as does an accompanying press release describing how Hayes “shares the tragic story of his son Shemar’s murder.”

“The commercial looks as if I’m trying to sway North Carolinians from voting the way that they want to vote, and that wasn’t my agenda,” Hayes told NC Newsline of what he says is his involuntary role in the contest between Cooper and former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley. “I wanted to let the community know about gun violence and about my son being murdered.”

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

Runoffs were the big story this week, with close races in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Georgia. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Kari Chisholm discuss how two Trump-endorsed candidates—Darline Graham in South Carolina and Mike Mazzei in Oklahoma—narrowly won their races, along with their prospects in …

17 days ago · 6 likes · 2 comments · David Beard

Election Recaps

MA-Sen (D) (61-36 Harris)

Sen. Ed Markey decisively fended off Rep. Seth Moulton 65-35 in the Democratic primary. The 80-year-old Markey, who should have no trouble defeating attorney John Deaton in the general election, said during the primary that he is seeking his final term in office.

MA-Gov (R) (61-36 Harris)

Former medical technology executive Mike Minogue overwhelmingly beat venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve 76-24 in the GOP primary for the right to take on Democratic Gov. Maura Healey, a win that came after Minogue self-funded at least $15 million. Polls, however, have found Healey in no danger against either Republican.

MA-01 (D) (56-42 Harris)

Rep. Richard Neal, a 19-term incumbent and the top Democrat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, held off teacher Jeromie Whalen just 54-46 in the primary for the 1st District in the western part of the state.

The Associated Press estimates 93% of the vote has been tabulated, so the final result may be slightly different once the remaining ballots are tabulated. There’s no question, though, that this is the smallest margin of victory of Neal’s long congressional career.

Neal’s showing was especially unimpressive given his prominence and huge financial advantage against Whalen, who struggled to raise money or convince outside groups to spend on his behalf.

And while the 77-year-old congressman is now well-positioned both to secure a 20th term and to become chair of the Ways and Means Committee should his party return to the majority, Whalen’s unexpectedly strong showing could inspire future primary challenges.

MA-06 (D) (59-39 Harris)

Dan Koh, a former Biden administration official who sported endorsements from both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, defeated state Rep. Tram Nguyen 41-30 in the six-person Democratic primary. Koh, whose side decisively outspent Nguyen and the rest of the field, is now on a glide path to succeed Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton in the 6th District, a constituency in the northeast corner of the state.

MA-08 (D) (62-36 Harris)

Rep. Stephen Lynch fended off attorney Patrick Roath 55-45 in the Democratic primary for the 8th District, which includes part of Boston and communities to the south.

Lynch, who has spent his quarter-century in Congress as one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, prevailed despite being outraised during the campaign. But Lynch, like Neal, came closer to losing renomination than ever before, and the 71-year-old incumbent could face another tough primary the next time he’s on the ballot.

Senate

NE-Sen, NE-Gov

Nebraska’s two newest political parties nominated candidates for the November ballot in key contests ahead of Tuesday’s deadline, with Democrats and Republicans both charging that the efforts are designed to undermine them.

In the race for Senate, where independent Dan Osborn is seeking to oust Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts with the help of Democrats, both the America First Party and the Nebraska Working People Party put forth nominees. The former tapped Chuck Conboy, while the latter selected Robin Richards, the party’s chair.

Osborn had hoped for a one-on-one matchup with Ricketts and was greatly aided in his quest when Democrat Cindy Burbank dropped her bid in July. (Democrats declined to name a replacement, and a lawsuit seeking to force them to do so was recently rejected.) One other name will still appear on the ballot—Mike Marvin of the Legal Marijuana Now Party—but he quit the race last month.

It’s not clear how Conboy and Richards might affect the headline battle between Osborn and Ricketts, but both major parties sought to block recognition of the new entities in separate challenges.

The national Working Families Party, in concert with state Democrats, argued that the name of the Working People Party was too similar to their own. Republicans, meanwhile, said that the name of the America First Party would cause “confusion.”

However, the same judge, ruling in both cases, said that Democrats had failed to file their objections in a timely manner, while Republicans had failed to demonstrate voters would be “confused” under relevant state law. The state Supreme Court unanimously upheld both decisions.

In the governor’s race, meanwhile, only the America First Party named a candidate, choosing former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom. Lindstrom served in office as a Republican and sought the GOP nod for the open 2nd Congressional District earlier this year but quit before the primary.

Soon after, he dropped his party affiliation and later kicked off a campaign for governor as an independent. However, last month, Lindstrom failed to make the ballot after election officials said that many of the signatures he’d submitted were fraudulent, prompting him to seek the embrace of one of the new third parties.

Initially, Lindstrom suggested he might partner with the Working People Party but ultimately went in the opposite direction. He’ll now face Republican Gov. Jim Pillen and former state Sen. Lynne Walz, the Democratic nominee, as well as a Legal Marijuana Now candidate, Rick Beard.

SC-Sen

Still smarting over his defeat in last week’s special GOP primary, Rep. Ralph Norman told reporters on Monday that he’d advise ambivalent voters to cast a ballot for him in the general election even though he won’t be on the ballot—and can’t be.

In a press gaggle on Capitol Hill after members returned to Congress following a five-week summer break, one reporter asked Norman, “What would you say to an undecided voter in South Carolina ahead of November?”

The congressman, who lost to Sen. Darline Graham 52-48 in a runoff, responded tersely, “Vote for Ralph Norman.”

While Norman did not explicitly mention a write-in campaign, South Carolina would forbid such an attempt thanks to a so-called sore-loser law. According to the relevant statute, “a person who was defeated as a candidate for nomination to an office in a party primary or party convention must not have his name placed on the ballot for the ensuing general or special election.”

Graham faces Democrat Annie Andrews in the general election.

TX-Sen

Republican Ken Paxton is getting his first major infusion of outside support, but neither of the two major groups who’ve been playing chicken with one another is involved.

Rather, according to Politico, a pro-Paxton super PAC called Lone Star Liberty is spending $15 million on spots that seek to build up the attorney general and tear down his Democratic rival, state Rep. James Talarico.

The two biggest players, however, have remained silent. Neither the Senate Leadership Fund, which is tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, nor MAGA Inc., Donald Trump’s deep-pocketed super PAC, has yet to engage. In July, the New York Times reported that the two erstwhile allies are “not so secretly hoping that the other one swoops in” to save the embattled Paxton.

Compared to resources that SLF or MAGA Inc. can deploy, Lone Star Liberty’s spending is just a drop in the bucket. Semafor reported on Monday that Republicans “say they need tens of millions more in a state where it costs more than $5 million a week to run a statewide ad campaign.”

Talarico, meanwhile, has dominated the airwaves thanks to his superior fundraising. He also leads in the polls: According to an aggregate compiled by FiftyPlusOne, Talarico is averaging a 47-44 lead over Paxton.

House

NC-11

The House voted 413-2 to censure Rep. Chuck Edwards for allegedly sexually harassing female aides, with only Edwards and fellow Republican Rep. Ralph Norman voting against the measure. As a consequence, Edwards was obligated to stand in the well of the House as Speaker Mike Johnson read the censure resolution aloud.

The congressman, who ended his reelection campaign for North Carolina’s 11th District last month shortly after the House Ethics Committee recommended he be censured, is only the 29th representative in history to receive this punishment. He’s also the first member of the majority party to be censured since 2010, when the late Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel of New York was formally admonished for ethics violations.

Poll Pile

MI-Sen: Michigan State University:
- Abdul El-Sayed (D): 50, Mike Rogers (R): 45.
SC-Sen: Impact Research:
- Annie Andrews (D): 42, Darline Graham (R-inc): 39, Kasie Whitener (L): 6.
- This survey was conducted for an unnamed pro-Andrews group from Aug. 14-22. Last week, the Andrews campaign released its own survey, also conducted by Impact Research, that found the race tied at 41 apiece. That poll was in the field from Aug. 18-24.
NM-Sen: Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal:
- Ben Ray Lujan (D-inc): 53, Larry Marker (R): 38.
MI-Gov: MSU:
- Jocelyn Benson (D): 52, John James (R): 43.
CA-07: Data for Progress for pro-Mai Vang groups:
- Vang (D): 32, Doris Matsui (D-inc): 28.
- The poll was conducted for the Justice Democrats, Working Families Party, and Leaders We Deserve.
FL-13: Hart Research Associates for House Majority PAC:
- Leela Gray (D): 44, Anna Paulina Luna (R-inc): 43, Tony D’Arrigo (I): 7.
- Gray (D): 51, Luna (R-inc): 46.

Morning Digest: Wild deadline maneuvers cause major upheaval in Alaska's marquee races

David Nir — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 12:01:32 GMT

Former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (center), the lone Democrat still running for governor after his top rival dropped out and endorsed him. (Credit: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins Facebook)

Leading Off

AK-Sen, AK-Gov, AK-AL

Alaska’s marquee elections saw major gyrations just ahead of Monday night’s deadline for candidates to withdraw, as some contenders quit to give their party a better chance in November while others facing long odds of victory also bowed out.

The contest for the state’s open governorship experienced the greatest upheaval. In that race, former state Sen. Tom Begich said on Friday that he was giving up his campaign and endorsing former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a fellow Democrat.

In last month’s top-four primary, Begich finished in second with 20.8% of the vote, not far behind Kreiss-Tomkins’ 22.5% showing. But according to the Anchorage Daily News, Begich said that data showed Democrats were likelier to win the general election by fielding just a single candidate.

“It was a better chance of winning if one of us went on alone,” Begich told the paper. He also said he was worried about his fundraising prospects, explaining, “Being able to get enough resources to run a successful campaign is hard when you’re No. 2, not No. 1, in the outcome in a primary.”

Even though Alaska’s general elections use ranked-choice voting to determine a winner if no one wins an outright majority, there’s no guarantee that a Kreiss-Tomkins supporter would also rank Begich and vice versa. This problem, known as ballot exhaustion, will no longer be a concern for Democrats, at least, because Kreiss-Tomkins is now the only Democrat left.

Republicans, by contrast, remain divided as they aim to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Conservative activist Bernadette Wilson was the top vote-getter among Republicans, but because of the huge size of the GOP field, she wound up far behind Begich with 10% of the vote.

Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson trailed with 8%, but by virtue of his fourth-place showing, he moved on to the general election, too. Some fellow Republicans urged him to bow out in favor of Wilson, but he released a defiant video last week accompanied by a statement saying, “We are not backing down, we are not stepping aside, and we are not going anywhere.”

Under Alaska law, though, when someone who finishes among the top four in the primary withdraws, the fifth-place candidate moves up.

But with Begich’s departure, things grew especially hazy. On Monday, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who oversees Alaska’s elections, disqualified the fifth-place contender, former state Attorney General Treg Taylor. Taylor earned 7% in the primary but was not permitted to move on because he’d refused to comply with financial disclosure laws.

In races for other posts, the sixth-place candidate would have then taken his place. However, in elections for governor, a disqualified or withdrawn candidate’s running mate is next in line to replace them. That resulted in the elevation of little-known businesswoman Candice English, who then had to choose a new person to serve as her running mate.

English tapped Taylor’s wife, Jodi Taylor, for that newly vacant role. However, the ADN reported that Jodi Taylor filed the same incomplete financial disclosures her husband had, meaning she potentially risks disqualification, too.

The high-profile battle for Senate saw far less disruption, though Democrats once again benefited when LGBTQ rights activist David Leslie, who wound up in fourth with just 1% of the vote, chose to withdraw. That left former Rep. Mary Peltola, who took first place with 50%, as the sole Democrat in the race.

Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan trailed Peltola with 41%, and he also has to deal with retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, who is also running under the GOP banner and snagged 2.5%. Republicans had sought to remove Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot, likely fearing that some voters might rank him and not the incumbent, but the Alaska Supreme Court restored his candidacy.

Leslie’s decision also elevated perennial Republican candidate Gerald Heikes onto the ballot, creating another potential irritant for the senator.

Finally, the race for Alaska’s lone seat in the U.S. House experienced a cascade of departures that saw the promotion of a candidate who finished in eighth place.

The top two contenders are Republican Rep. Nick Begich, who scored 45% of the vote, and commercial fisherman Bill Hill, an independent who won 33%. The most prominent Democrat who’d been running, pastor Matt Schultz, dropped out in July and endorsed Hill. He still finished third with 8% but confirmed his withdrawal with state officials.

In fourth was Democrat Eric Hafner, who took 4% despite never even campaigning—because he’s in the midst of serving a 20-year sentence in a federal prison in New York for threatening to kill police officers, judges, and elected officials.

Hafner was likewise situated when he ran for the House two years ago. Democrats tried to have him booted from the ballot but were unsuccessful in court.

Schultz’s exit created a fresh opening, but no one was very keen to take it. The fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-place finishers all bowed out, leaving the honor to Libertarian Jim McDermott.

In addition to all of these contests, Alaska voters will also decide in November whether to repeal or retain their unique top-four primary and ranked-choice general elections.

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

19 days ago · 6 likes · 2 comments · David Beard

Election Night

Massachusetts goes to the polls on Tuesday for one of the final primary nights of 2026, though its highest-profile bout seems to have fizzled out well before the election.

That contest—the Democratic Senate primary between incumbent Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton—isn’t the only one on the docket, though. Below, we preview all of the most important races that will impact both the November elections and the makeup of Congress next year.

MA-Sen (D) (61-36 Harris)

While Moulton’s decision to challenge Markey initially looked as though it might spell the end of the senator’s career, recent polls show Markey with a wide advantage.

A new survey from Emerson College finds Markey ahead 60-33, a big shift from his slender 37-32 advantage in the school’s May poll. The University of New Hampshire likewise placed Markey ahead 63-28 in a survey released last week after showing him ahead just 41-35 in June.

Moulton, 47, has spent the campaign urging Democrats to embrace “generational change” and reject the 80-year-old senator. Markey, however, has pushed back by highlighting his progressive views. Last month, the senator told the New York Times, “I always think of myself as the youngest guy in the room when it comes to ideas.”

At the same time, Markey has portrayed Moulton as too conservative to represent one of the nation’s most liberal states. The incumbent, notably, has highlighted Moulton’s comments to the Times just after Donald Trump’s 2024 win, in which the congressman declared, “I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”

Moulton attempted to distance himself from his comments at a debate last month, telling trans voters, “I deeply recognize your trauma, and I’m sorry if my comments hurt you.” Markey, though, was not appeased.

“Congressman Moulton’s apology was more about political expediency than personal accountability,” he told 19th News. “He hurt those families. He hurt those kids.”

MA-Gov (R) (61-36 Harris)

Former medical technology executive Mike Minogue, who has thrown down at least $15 million of his own money, faces Brian Shortsleeve, a venture capitalist who served in then-Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration, for the right to take on Democratic Gov. Maura Healey.

The GOP nomination, though, may not be as valuable as Minogue’s massive self-funding suggests. Polls show Healey easily defeating both potential rivals in her campaign for a second term.

MA-01 (D) (56-42 Harris)

Rep. Richard Neal, a Democrat who was first elected in 1988 to represent the western reaches of the state, faces intraparty opposition from teacher Jeromie Whalen in the 1st District.

Whalen, 39, has pitched himself as a younger and more progressive outsider challenging the 77-year-old Neal. Whalen, however, has struggled to raise money to go up against the well-funded Neal, and outside groups have spent little to help him get his name out.

MA-06 (D) (59-39 Harris)

Six Democrats are on the ballot in the 6th District, a constituency in the northeast corner of the state that Rep. Seth Moulton is giving up to run for the Senate.

Dan Koh, a former Biden administration official, has raised considerably more money from donors than any of his rivals, and he’s also benefited from roughly $1.8 million in outside spending. He also has both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in his corner.

State Rep. Tram Nguyen, however, is hoping to pull off an upset by pitching herself as an alternative to the well-connected Koh, but one who nonetheless knows how to achieve results. (Her website touts her as an “effective State Representative” and an “outsider.”) While Nguyen hasn’t come close to matching Koh’s resources, she’s nonetheless received close to $700,000 in third-party support.

Nguyen also got some welcome news on Saturday when veterinarian Mariah Lancaster announced they were dropping out and endorsing Nguyen.

Three other candidates round out the field: software engineer Beth Andres-Beck and former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, who have both struggled to raise money, and wealthy attorney John Beccia, who has self-funded more than $4 million.

MA-08 (D) (62-36 Harris)

Rep. Stephen Lynch, long one of the most moderate Democrats in the House, faces a challenge from the left from attorney Patrick Roath in the 8th District, which includes part of Boston and communities to the south.

Roath has outraised Lynch, and he’s benefited from more than $500,000 in outside support. The incumbent, however, has touted his long experience and has a history of turning back primary challengers who’ve argued his constituents deserve a more liberal representative.

Senate

NH-Sen

Rep. Chris Pappas, the favorite of national Democrats, has responded to a public poll finding him in a surprisingly close battle in next week’s primary with a survey of his own that predicts a blowout.

Last week, the University of New Hampshire released data showing Pappas up 47-34 on biochemist Karishma Manzur—a drop from the 53-29 edge he enjoyed in June, and a far cry from the 65-11 advantage he sported in January.

Pappas, though, is arguing that little has changed this year. In a new internal poll from GQR, he leads Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, by a huge 71-15 margin. The congressman also has a comparably outsized financial advantage: As of Aug. 19, he reported raising almost $15.4 million, while his challenger had brought in just $415,000.

Whoever prevails will go on to face the winner of the GOP primary, where former Sen. John Sununu has consistently held wide leads over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

House

LA-05, LA-06

The Louisiana Republican Party’s executive committee voted Thursday to back Louisiana Board of Regents chair Misti Cordell in the 5th Congressional District—and to add a second endorsement in the neighboring 6th District after initially backing just a single candidate.

A little over a week ago, the state GOP opted to support state Sen. Blake Miguez over fellow state Sen. Rick Edmonds in the 6th, an open seat Republicans dramatically transformed with their new gerrymander.

Tyler Bridges of NOLA.com, however, reports that Gov. Jeff Landry was “angered” by that decision and applied pressure to make sure Miguez wouldn’t be the GOP’s only endorsed candidate. The executive committee held a new vote days later and endorsed both Miguez and Edmonds.

While Landry hasn’t publicly taken sides in this contest, Bridges notes that the governor and Miguez are anything but friendly. One source traces the conflict to a November 2024 X post in which Miguez wrote, “The legislature should not consider any revenue measures without a clear plan to the public from @LAGovJeffLandry on how he will reduce the size of future government spending.”

Landry responded, “Now is not the time for political posturing or worrying about one’s next political office. @BlakeMiguezLA seems to want to run to social media instead of offering his own plan.” Landry also encouraged Miguez’s constituents to “ask him what his proposal is, what has he done, how is he going to take us from the bottom to the top?!”

Bridges, meanwhile, writes that there’s no indication Landry worked to help Cordell, whom he’s personally close to, win the GOP endorsement in the 5th, a dark-red seat that Rep. Julia Letlow is giving up to run for the Senate. The governor also hasn’t publicly come out in support of Cordell, who is going up against three Republican legislators in the fall.

Ballot Measures

NE Ballot

Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen greenlit a constitutional amendment to restrict the participation of trans students in school sports on Monday while rejecting another seeking to prevent Nebraska politicians from interfering with citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives.

The latter proposal would require lawmakers to muster a four-fifths supermajority before altering or repealing any measure approved by voters. It would also impose the same threshold for any changes made to the process for qualifying initiatives or referendums and would further require such changes “to advance a compelling state interest achieved by the least restrictive means.”

Evnen said that backers had likely submitted the necessary number of signatures but concluded that the proposal violated the state’s prohibition on amendments that address more than one subject. The group supporting the measure, Respect Nebraska Voters, said in a statement that it would challenge the determination in court.

The other measure, meanwhile, would require schools to designate every athletic team as “based on biological sex,” limited to male, female, or mixed. Teams designated as female “shall not be open to students of the male sex,” prohibiting trans students from joining such teams.

Nebraska’s GOP-dominated legislature already passed a law imposing the same restrictions last year, but conservatives now want to enshrine it in the state constitution. Evnen said on Monday that supporters’ signatures had passed muster, allowing the amendment to appear on the November ballot.

Poll Pile

MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA:
- Abdul El-Sayed (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 43.
MS-Sen: Data for Progress for Way to Lead PAC (pro-Scott Colom):
- Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-inc): 44, Colom (D): 38, Ty Pinkins (I): 7.
- Hyde-Smith (R-inc): 47, Colom (D): 41.
KS-Gov: Global Strategy Group for Cindy Holscher:
- Holscher (D): 47, Ty Masterson (R): 46.
MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA:
- Jocelyn Benson (D): 45, John James (R): 41.
NM-Gov: Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal:
- Deb Haaland (D): 49, Gregg Hull (R): 43.
PA-Gov: Bravo Group for PennLive:
- Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 56, Stacy Garrity (R): 25.
- July: 53-28 Shapiro.
MI-10: Global Strategy Group for House Majority PAC:
- Christina Hines (D): 45, Mike Bouchard (R): 45.
NC-07: Public Policy Polling for Kimberly Hardy:
- David Rouzer (R-inc): 45, Hardy (D): 39, Maad Abu-Ghazalah (L): 3.
- Rouzer (R-inc): 49, Hardy (D): 43.
PA-01: GQR for HMP:
- Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 49, Bob Harvie (D): 48.
TN-05: Impact Research for Chaz Molder:
- Charlie Hatcher (R): 48, Molder (D): 40.

No Morning Digest today

David Nir — Mon, 31 Aug 2026 12:02:44 GMT

As I wrote last week, The Downballot is taking some unexpected time off—a handful of late-summer Fridays—as I recover from reconstructive knee surgery. For that reason, we regret that we don’t have a Morning Digest for you today, but rest assured that we will tomorrow.

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Thank you so much,

David

Weekly open thread

James Lambert — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 21:00:46 GMT

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Morning Digest: One more longtime House Democrat looks to avoid a primary upset

David Nir — Fri, 28 Aug 2026 12:01:21 GMT

Rep. Stephen Lynch of Massachusetts. (Credit: Stephen Lynch campaign site)

Note: The Downballot will be taking off on Friday, so we will not be publishing a Morning Digest on Monday. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Have a great weekend!

Leading Off

MA-08, MA-01

Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch is hoping to avoid becoming the final member of Congress to lose renomination this year, but attorney Patrick Roath still has a difficult task in Tuesday’s primary for Massachusetts’ 8th District.

Roath began running against Lynch, who has spent his quarter-century in the House as one of his party’s most centrist members, in May of last year as Democrats across the nation began calling for longtime incumbents to step aside.

Roath, who at 39 is more than three decades younger than the 71-year-old congressman, has made change a centerpiece of his effort. He launched his campaign last spring by calling for “new leadership” in the 8th District, a longtime Democratic bastion that includes parts of Boston and communities to the south.

Roath, who served in then-Gov. Deval Patrick’s administration, has hauled in more money than Lynch since he started his effort. Since launching his bid, he’s taken in almost $1.3 million through Aug. 12, when the most recent fundraising period ended, compared to just over $900,000 for the congressman. Lynch, though, has still enjoyed a spending edge thanks to money he had already stockpiled.

Roath is getting assistance from outside groups, but not on the same scale as other high-profile primary challengers in races elsewhere this cycle. FEC reports show that third-party outfits, led by David Hogg’s Leaders We Deserve, have spent about $500,000 to help Roath and attack Lynch.

Leaders We Deserve’s offensive includes mailers citing both new and old offenses to make its case that Lynch, who has served in Congress since 2001, is “MAGA’s favorite Democrat.”

One flyer goes after the congressman, who last year was the sole member of the state’s nine-member, all-Democratic House delegation to back the Laken Riley Act, which turbocharged Donald Trump’s anti-immigration agenda. It also reminds voters that Lynch opposed the Affordable Care Act in 2010, a vote that came even after an in-person Oval Office meeting with then-President Barack Obama.

But while that nay vote dogged Lynch in 2013 when he competed in a special election after Sen. John Kerry resigned to become secretary of state—fellow Rep. Ed Markey decisively beat him in the primary en route to winning the general election—it has yet to cost him his House seat. Hogg’s outfit, however, argues that Democratic voters in the 8th District have finally had enough of their congressman.

Leaders We Deserve unveiled an internal poll early this month showing Lynch beating Roath by a small 50-43 margin, a big shift from his 54-32 advantage in an unreleased July survey also conducted for the group. These surveys, which were conducted by Z to A Research, are the only polling anyone has released of this contest all summer.

The incumbent’s backers haven’t countered with more favorable numbers, but they’re not spending like they believe he’s in trouble. To date, Lynch’s allies have spent less than $100,000 to help him.

Lynch likewise isn’t behaving as though he thinks he needs much assistance. He told the Boston Globe last week that he’s beaten opponents with “more money and more of a buzz around them.”

But while “buzz” is unquantifiable, Lynch had, until now, outraised every opponent he’s ever faced, and always by wide margins.

That includes his two most notable primary challengers: physician Robbie Goldstein, whom he beat 66-33 in 2020, and Mac D’Alessandro, a former SEIU regional political director whom he defeated by a similar 65-35 margin a decade earlier. Neither benefited from nearly enough outside spending to overcome the financial gap.

Lynch has also continued to embrace the political center despite his constituency’s strong Democratic lean: Kamala Harris carried the 8th District 62-36, according to calculations by The Downballot.

“We need more people in the middle to give that strength to the Democrats, so that we can actually be a party that governs, and not simply a party of protesters ... against the party in power,” he told GBH.

Lynch also rejects the idea that voters should want a younger representative.

“We’ve got a pretty young Congress right now, so I think you need a balance,” he said at a debate. The Boston Globe notes that the average age for House members is 58, though the median American is just 39.

Lynch, who led an ironworkers union based in South Boston before he entered Congress, has also gone on the offensive by highlighting the fact that Roath is originally from Connecticut.

“I did grow up in Connecticut, my god I’m so sorry,” Roath snarked to Spectrum News. The challenger, though, turned more serious as he argued that Lynch’s attempts to portray him as an interloper are “an insult to all the people who grew up in other parts of the country and world or state and have moved into this district.”

Lynch’s primary is taking place on the same day that Rep. Richard Neal, a fellow Democrat who has represented the western reaches of the state since 1989, is trying to fend off intraparty opposition from teacher Jeromie Whalen in the 1st District.

Whalen, who’s drawn eyeballs while barnstorming the district in a bright-yellow van, has also earned attention outside the Bay State, but he’s received considerably less financial support than Roath.

Whalen raised just under $340,000 through mid-August, and he’s benefited from less than $30,000 in outside help. Neal, the top Democrat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, has spent more than $3 million to win another term.

Massachusetts’ nominating contests come near the end of what’s been a tough primary season for House incumbents. Seven Democrats have been ejected by their own party’s voters this year, while four Republicans have met the same fate.

These members have lost for a variety of reasons, including scandal, redistricting, age, and ideological conflicts with their party’s base. But while Roath and his allies have made Lynch’s votes a particular emphasis, the challenger has also argued that the congressman hasn’t demonstrated leadership at a pivotal moment in American history.

“It might have been fine for a long time to have a member of Congress who is kind of going with the flow, who’s a backbencher, who votes on most of the bills, but is not leading, and that time is over,” Roath told the editorial board for the Boston Globe, which went on to endorse him.

“That is not what we can have right now,” he continued. “We need every single one of these Democratic seats to be punching above their weight.”

The Downballot Podcast

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

Due to a technical issue, this week’s podcast was published after yesterday’s Digest, so we’re re-upping it in case you were unable to access it. We apologize for the inconvenience.

Runoffs were the big story this week, with close contests in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Georgia. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Kari Chisholm discuss how two Trump-endorsed candidates—Darline Graham in South Carolina and Mike Mazzei in Oklahoma—narrowly won their races, along with their prospects in the general election. They also preview next week’s primaries in Massachusetts, including Rep. Seth Moulton’s faltering challenge to Sen. Ed Markey.

Then in our deep dive, we channel the spirit of fantasy football season for a “Senate flip” fantasy draft. David and Kari take turns “drafting” each of this year’s top Senate races, based on how likely every seat is to change hands. Of course, as with any draft, there’s plenty of analysis of every prospect!

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

19 days ago · 1 like · 1 comment · David Beard

House

MA-06

State Rep. Tram Nguyen received a trio of notable endorsements this week as she aims to upset Dan Koh, a former Biden administration official who leads all recent polling, in Tuesday’s busy Democratic primary for Massachusetts’ open 6th District.

On Monday, Nguyen publicized endorsements from two members of the state’s congressional delegation: Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who is one of the most prominent progressives in the chamber, and Rep. Lori Trahan, who defeated Koh by 145 votes in the 2018 primary for the neighboring 3rd District.

Attorney General Andrea Campbell joined them on Thursday in endorsing Nguyen’s campaign to replace Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat who is leaving his House seat behind to challenge Sen. Ed Markey for renomination. Moulton himself has not taken sides in the primary for the 6th District, a reliably blue constituency in the region north of Boston known as the North Shore.

Koh, for his part, has both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in his corner, as well as a big financial advantage over the rest of the field thanks to both his strong fundraising and heavy outside spending.

Koh also recently released an internal poll from Global Strategy Group showing him leading Nguyen 35-20. Wealthy attorney John Beccia took third with 12%, while the remaining three candidates—former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, veterinarian Mariah Lancaster, and software engineer Beth Andres-Beck—registered single-digit support.

Those numbers, though, showed some upward trajectory for Nguyen from a few weeks earlier as her rivals have largely remained stagnant. An early August poll from GSG found Koh leading with 34% as Beccia and Nguyen took 15% and 14%, respectively. No one else has released any surveys all summer.

Poll Pile

SD-Sen: Impact Research for Brian Bengs:
- Bengs (I): 44, Mike Rounds (R-inc): 44.
TX-Sen: Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research:
- James Talarico (D): 48, Ken Paxton (R): 42.
- July: 45-40 Talarico.
CT-Gov: University of New Hampshire:
- Ned Lamont (D-inc): 52, Ryan Fazio (R): 37.
- June: 49-36 Lamont.
MA-Gov: UNH:
- Maura Healey (D-inc): 54, Michael Minogue (R): 30. (June: 51-32 Healey)
- Healey (D-inc): 55, Brian Shortsleeve (R): 28. (June: 50-32 Healey)
NH-Gov: UNH:
- Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 49, Cinde Warmington (D): 39.
- June: 44-39 Ayotte.
PA-Gov: Franklin & Marshall College:
- Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 50, Stacy Garrity (R): 25.
- June: 50-28 Shapiro.
RI-Gov (D): UNH:
- Helena Foulkes: 56, Dan McKee (inc): 18.
- June: 42-22 Foulkes.
RI-Gov: UNH:
- Foulkes (D): 42, Elaine Pelino (R): 20, Ken Block (I): 18.
- McKee (D-inc): 26, Block (I): 25, Pelino (R): 19.
- Foulkes (D): 40, Block (I): 19, Aaron Guckian (R): 15.
- McKee (D-inc): 27, Block (I): 26, Guckian (R): 17.
SC-Gov: Hart Research Associates for Jermaine Johnson:
- Alan Wilson (R): 50, Johnson (D): 42.
TX-Gov: Slingshot:
- Greg Abbott (R-inc): 49, Gina Hinojosa (D): 42.
- July: 45-42 Abbott.
AZ-02: Peak Insights for Eli Crane:
- Crane (R-inc): 53, Jonathan Nez (D): 42.
KY-06: Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC:
- Zach Dembo (D): 45, Ralph Alvarado (R): 44.
NC-03: Tulchin Research for HMP:
- Greg Murphy (R-inc): 44, Raymond Smith (D): 41.
TX-AG: Slingshot:
- Mayes Middleton (R): 44, Nathan Johnson (D): 41.
- July: 39-38 Middleton.
TX-LG: Slingshot:
- Dan Patrick (R-inc): 47, Vikki Goodwin (D): 41.
TX Comptroller: Slingshot:
- Don Huffines (R-inc): 43, Sarah Eckhardt (D): 41.
TX Agriculture Commissioner: Slingshot:
- Nate Sheets (R): 44, Clayton Tucker (D): 40.
TX Land Commissioner: Slingshot:
- Dawn Buckingham (R-inc): 44, Benjamin Flores (D): 40.
TX Railroad Commissioner: Slingshot:
- Bo French (R): 45, Jon Rosenthal (D): 41.

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

David Beard — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 17:37:48 GMT

Then in our deep dive, we channel the spirit of fantasy football season for a “Senate flip” fantasy draft. David and Kari take turns “drafting” each of this year’s top Senate contests, based on how likely every seat is to change hands. Of course, as with any draft, there’s plenty of analysis of every prospect!

Morning Digest: Thought Max Miller would become a GOP pariah? Nope.

David Nir — Thu, 27 Aug 2026 12:04:00 GMT

Rep. Max Miller of Ohio (left). (Credit: Max Miller Facebook)

Leading Off

OH-07

Republicans in competitive races are not separating themselves from Rep. Max Miller despite abuse allegations leveled against the Ohio congressman by his ex-wife—and if anything, they’re doing just the opposite.

“Look, my view is this is the most important election for preserving Republican control of the House, the Senate, and also protecting the Republican control of the state,” Vivek Ramaswamy, the GOP nominee for governor, told a gathering last weekend in audio first shared by HuffPost.

Ramaswamy, who was responding to an attendee asking whether he would “go out and campaign with” Miller, concluded, “If we compromise that, we’re done.”

A spokesperson for Amy Acton, Ramaswamy’s Democratic opponent, was quick to connect him to the scandal-ridden congressman.

“Vivek Ramaswamy stands side-by-side with creeps and abusers, from known Epstein associates to Max Miller,” her team told HuffPost. Polls show Acton and Ramaswamy neck-and-neck, despite Ohio’s shift to the right over the past decade.

Ramaswamy, though, is far from the only Republican who has avoided treating Miller, who refused to remove his name from the ballot before the deadline to do so passed earlier this month, as a pariah.

Politico reported earlier this month that of the 16 Republican members of Congress who received donations from Miller’s leadership PAC this year, only Rep. Brad Finstad of Minnesota said he wouldn’t keep the money. Nearly all the rest avoided commenting, but a spokesperson for New York Rep. Mike Lawler told the site he didn’t plan to return the $10,000 contribution.

Lawler, one of the most vulnerable Republicans in the chamber, defended himself in a subsequent interview with CNN’s Dana Bash.

“Max has been accused, Max has also made accusations against his ex-wife,” Lawler said of his colleague. “It is tragic, and obviously I don’t condone any level of abuse, but ultimately there has been nothing that has been corroborated here.”

Noting that Lawler reported having close to $5 million on hand at the end of June, Bash pressed him as to why he would not part with such a small fraction of his war chest. Lawler responded, “Dana, do you have information that proves the allegation? I mean, are you aware of something the rest of us are not?”

But Lawler offered a very different response earlier this summer when a similar scandal beset a high-profile Democratic candidate.

“Watching the media and Democrats fall all over themselves defending Graham Platner is truly next level,” Lawler tweeted in June, after the New York Times reported that three women recounted “volatile and ‘toxic’ relationships” with the Maine Senate candidate.

“After all the sanctimonious lectures about everything, it turns out, they don’t actually care about Nazi affiliations or sexual abuse and harassment.”

Platner’s bid collapsed the following month after Jenny Racicot, who had spoken to the Times about her relationship with Platner, told Politico he’d raped her in 2021. Democrats immediately called for the nominee to drop out, with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee bluntly warning that it would “not invest in the Maine Senate race if Platner remains on the ballot.” Platner ended his campaign two days later.

Republican leaders, though, reacted very differently this summer as story after story detailed Emily Moreno’s abuse allegations against Miller, her now-former husband.

Donald Trump, whom Miller worked for during his first administration, pointedly refused to tell the congressman to drop out. Politico subsequently reported that Trump’s team urged Ohio Republicans to avoid calling for Miller to end his quest for a third term.

Some Republicans still tried to pressure Miller to quit the race in time for the GOP to nominate a replacement candidate, albeit much less overtly than Democrats had sought to boot Platner.

Days before the deadline to drop out, the Republican firm co/efficient released a poll showing ironworker Brian Poindexter, the Democratic nominee, beating Miller by a huge 47-33 spread, though it’s not clear who if anyone sponsored the survey.

“The data no longer supports a viable path to victory for Max Miller,” the pollster said of his prospects in Ohio’s 7th District, a suburban Cleveland constituency Trump would have carried 55-44 in 2024. The memo, which highlighted the incumbent’s toxic 20-57 favorable rating, concluded, “Whatever Republican path exists in Ohio’s 7th does not run through him.”

But Miller saw things differently. He not only chose to remain in the race but also said he would loan his campaign $1 million.

Democrats have responded to Miller’s refusal to step aside by making the 7th District a top priority. The House Majority PAC announced on Aug. 14 that it was reserving an additional $6 million in ad time to target Miller, on top of the $1 million it booked this spring. Prominent Republican outside groups have not disclosed any planned spending to help Miller.

Poindexter, for his part, has largely avoided addressing the allegations surrounding his opponent. When the topic has come up, the Ohio Capital Journal recently explained, the Democrat “usually acknowledges the severity of the situation before pivoting to focus on Miller’s policies.”

Instead, he’s highlighted his labor background while downplaying his party affiliation.

“I’m not in this to carry the flag for the Democratic Party,” he told the Capital Journal. “I’m in this to flip a seat for working families.”

The Downballot Podcast

The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft

Redistricting Roundup

MD Redistricting, MD Ballot

Maryland Judge Robert Thompson ruled Wednesday against a proposed constitutional amendment that would make it easier for lawmakers to eliminate the state’s last Republican congressional district in time for the 2028 elections, but he paused his order to give the legislature time to appeal to the state Supreme Court.

Democrats, who authored the proposal, quickly confirmed they would ask the state’s highest court, where a majority of the members were appointed by then-Republican Gov. Larry Hogan, to allow the amendment to appear on the fall ballot.

But Thompson, who is also a Hogan appointee, ruled that they acted too late to comply with a state law requiring the secretary of state to certify summaries for statewide ballot measures by July 1.

The state attorney general, who is defending the amendment in court, has argued that this deadline doesn’t apply because the legislature, rather than election officials, crafted the summary.

Senate

AK-Sen

Retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, who is running as a Republican, will advance to the general election against GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan and former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, the Associated Press projected Tuesday evening.

The AP, which made its call a week after Alaska’s top-four primary, has not yet projected which minor candidate will take the fourth and final spot in the fall contest, which will be conducted using ranked-choice voting. Democrat David Leslie and Republican Gerald Heikes are locked in a tight race for this berth with about 1% of the vote each.

Governors

AK-Gov

Bernadette Wilson, a longtime Republican operative and former radio host, will compete in the general election for Alaska’s open governorship, the Associated Press projected on Tuesday.

Wilson is set to join a pair of Democrats, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and former state Sen. Tom Begich, in November. A trio of Republicans—former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, former Attorney General Treg Taylor, and former state Sen. Click Bishop—are locked in a close race for the fourth and final spot.

However, the general election may not necessarily feature two Democrats and two Republicans. Before the primary, Kreiss-Tomkins and Begich discussed the possibility of one of them dropping out so their party could consolidate behind a single contender for the general election.

If a winner declines to keep running, the fifth-place vote-getter would take their spot in the fall. If two contenders were to exit, the sixth-place finisher would also move forward.

Alaska voters won’t need to wait much longer to know who their four options will be. State election officials say they plan to finish their tabulations on Friday, and anyone who qualifies for the general election has until Monday to remove their name from the ballot.

GA-Gov

Despite Donald Trump’s behind-the-scenes machinations, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones still refuses to support billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson more than two months after Jackson’s upset victory in the Republican primary runoff for Georgia’s open governorship.

NOTUS Ben T.N. Mause writes that Trump offered to make Jones “ambassador to one of Europe’s largest countries,” but only if Jones were to endorse Jackson. However, Mause adds that unresolved legal matters between the two candidates, who filed defamation lawsuits against one another during the race, remain a stumbling block, with Jones wanting a $25 million settlement.

“The president didn’t offer me anything in exchange for an endorsement,” Jones told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution in response. But while Jones didn’t rule out eventually backing Jackson, he noted, “Let’s not forget they filed a defamation lawsuit against me.”

Jones’ new comments come more than a month after he refused to say whether he’d even cast a ballot for his victorious rival in the general election, when he’ll go up against Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms, the former mayor of Atlanta.

“We’ll see,” Jones told the AJC in July. “Obviously, I’m interested in supporting and keeping Georgia Republican-run and keeping it red. And I think November is going to be a challenge.”

House

NH-01

Sen. Maggie Hassan on Wednesday endorsed former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen ahead of the competitive Democratic primary for New Hampshire’s open 1st District on Sept. 8.

Hassan serves alongside the candidate’s mother, retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, but she highlighted her connection with the younger Shaheen in a statement.

“Stefany Shaheen and I first got to know each other as moms of children with tough health challenges,” she said. “Stefany’s fight for her daughter gave her the strength and experience to fight for all families.”

Poll Pile

IA-Sen: Suffolk University:
- Ashley Hinson (R): 45, Josh Turek (D): 41.
MA-Sen (D): University of New Hampshire:
- Ed Markey (inc): 63, Seth Moulton: 28.
- June: 41-35 Markey.
MA-Sen: UNH:
- Markey (D-inc): 49, John Deaton (R): 30, Joe Tache (Party of Socialism and Liberation): 7. (June: 50-34 Markey)
- Moulton (D): 38, Deaton (R): 25, Tache (PSL): 16. (June: 50-30 Moulton)
NE-Sen: Impact Research for Dan Osborn:
- Osborn (I): 47, Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 47.
- Feb.: 48-47 Ricketts.
NH-Sen (D): UNH:
- Chris Pappas: 47, Karishma Manzur: 34.
- June: 53-29 Pappas.
NH-Sen (R): UNH:
- John Sununu: 60. Scott Brown: 20.
- June: 59-20 Sununu.
NH-Sen: UNH:
- Sununu (R): 45, Pappas (D): 43. (June: 47-44 Pappas)
- Pappas (D): 45, Brown (R): 40. (June: 52-38 Pappas)
RI-Sen (D): UNH:
- Jack Reed (inc): 54, Connor Burbridge: 18.
- June: 63-25 Reed.
RI-Sen: UNH:
- Reed (D-inc): 51, Ray McKay (R): 31.
- June: 52-35 Reed.
SC-Sen: Impact Research for Annie Andrews:
- Andrews (D): 41, Darline Graham (R-inc): 41, Kasie Whitener (L): 5.
- The poll was conducted Aug. 18-24. Graham won the Republican primary runoff on Aug. 25.
IA-Gov: Suffolk:
- Rob Sand (D): 48, Zach Lahn (R): 44.
WI-Gov: Marquette University Law School:
- David Crowley (D): 49, Tom Tiffany (R): 44.
NH-01 (D): UNH:
- Maura Sullivan: 24, Stefany Shaheen: 19, Carleigh Beriont: 11, Heath Howard: 10, all others 4% or less, undecided: 29.
- June: Shaheen: 33, Howard: 10, Sullivan: 8, Beriont: 3.
- The poll was in the field Aug. 20-24. Howard dropped out on the evening of Aug. 24 and endorsed Beriont.
NH-01 (R): UNH:
- Hollie Noveletsky: 28, Anthony DiLorenzo: 25, Brian Cole: 7, all others 1% or less, undecided: 38.
- June: Noveletsky: 15, DiLorenzo: 10, Cole: 4.
NH-02 (D): UNH:
- Maggie Goodlander (inc): 59, Paige Beauchemin: 19.
- June: 66-12 Goodlander.
NH-02 (R): UNH:
- Lily Tang Williams: 58, all others 2% or less.
- June: 56-7 Williams.
TX-15: Texas Southern University:
- Bobby Pulido (D): 50, Monica De La Cruz (R-inc): 45.
TX-28: TSU:
- Henry Cuellar (D-inc): 45, Tano Tijerina (R): 34, Marlon Duran (G): 6.
TX-34: TSU:
- Vicente Gonzalez (D-inc): 45, Eric Flores (R): 42, Eddie Espinoza (G): 3, Chris Royal (L): 2.

Morning Digest: Trump’s picks come out on top in tight GOP runoffs

David Nir — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 12:03:50 GMT

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham. (Credit: Darline Graham Facebook)

Leading Off

SC-Sen, OK-Gov

Both of Donald Trump’s endorsed candidates narrowly prevailed on Tuesday in their respective Republican primary runoffs.

Appointed Sen. Darline Graham held off Rep. Ralph Norman 52-48 in the contest to replace the late Lindsey Graham, the incumbent’s brother and immediate predecessor, as the GOP nominee in South Carolina. Graham, who scored a lower percentage of the vote than her sibling’s underwhelming 57% share in June, will be the favorite against pediatrician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic primary two months ago.

Meanwhile Mike Mazzei, a former Oklahoma state senator, won the party’s nod for his state’s open governorship by an even tighter 50.3 to 49.7 spread against Attorney General Gentner Drummond. Mazzei, who also secured termed-out Gov. Kevin Stitt’s endorsement against Drummond, is the frontrunner against state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson, who won her Democratic primary in June.

Graham and Mazzei each benefited from Trump’s endorsement against intraparty opponents who sought to take advantage of their unflattering debate moments. Andrews responded to Graham’s win by challenging the senator, who said on stage last month that “I’m not that informed on national security,” to a minimum of three debates.

Outside groups also mobilized to boost both of Trump’s candidates.

AdImpact reports that Graham and her allies spent over $7 million during the two-week GOP runoff, compared to only $2 million for Norman’s side. The intervention was just enough to give Norman the unusual distinction of losing a primary for governor and Senate in the same year.

An affiliate of the hardline anti-tax Club for Growth, meanwhile, targeted Drummond for defeat. Politico, citing data from AdImpact, reports the group spent $8 million against Drummond, an effort that included ads claiming he suffered from “TDS: Trump derangement syndrome.” Trump himself also piled on with Truth Social posts blasting Drummond.

Democrats claim another big special election victory

Democrat Brandon Dukes won the last special election before November and became the 31st Democrat to flip a legislative seat since the beginning of 2025—compared to zero for Republicans. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay discuss that race as well as the last big primary night of 2026, with a …

a month ago · 6 likes · David Beard and Joe Sudbay

Election Recaps

GA-13

Everton Blair will become the first gay person to represent Georgia in Congress following his victory in Tuesday’s all-Democratic special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. David Scott.

Blair defeated activist Marcye Scott, the daughter of the late congressman, 54-46 in the special election runoff for the remaining months of the older Scott’s term representing Georgia’s 13th District. Blair will be succeeded in January by state Rep. Jasmine Clark, who defeated him in the May primary for a full term in the new Congress.

House

NH-01

State Rep. Heath Howard announced Monday he was dropping out of the Sept. 8 Democratic primary and endorsing Hampton Selectwoman Carleigh Beriont, whom he pitched as a progressive alternative to the two frontrunners.