Leading Off

GA-Gov

Healthcare billionaire Rick Jackson upset Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the Republican primary runoff for governor of Georgia on Tuesday night—and handed a smarting defeat to Jones’ top backer, Donald Trump.

Jackson's 53-47 win comes two weeks after Trump’s “COMPLETE AND TOTAL ENDORSEMENT” failed to carry Rep. Randy Feenstra to victory in Iowa over Zach Lahn, another wealthy businessman who captured the Republican nomination for his state’s open governorship.

The win for Jackson, whose $100 million personal investment allowed him to swamp the mere $25 million in self-funding his opponent offered up, also came as an embarrassment for term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp, who endorsed Jones just two days before the runoff.

Kemp argued Monday that Jones would be the strongest nominee to defeat former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who is seeking to become the first Democrat to win an election for governor since 1998.

But Kemp’s failure to help Jones get over the finish line could have serious repercussions for his drive to pass new congressional and legislative gerrymanders in time for the 2028 elections.

Last month, Kemp called a special session to address redistricting that’s set to begin on Wednesday, just one day after the runoffs. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, however, reported Tuesday morning that some members of the GOP majority in the state House were already wary of dismantling heavily Black districts.

Their reluctance doesn’t stem from concern for Black Georgians. Rather, Bluestein explained that some Republicans fear that such gerrymanders could “energize Democrats and distract from the party’s message on the economy and public safety.”

Now, Kemp’s ability to keep his party in line on redistricting may have just gotten weaker. Bluestein relayed on election night as Jackson led in the vote count, “House lawmakers I’m talking to are signaling it’s DOA.” And with Jones, who also serves as president of the Senate, now a lame duck, legislators are likely to feel less hesitancy in opposing him. (Both Jones and Jackson said they support remapping.)

While Kemp is about to find out whether he can still bring his reluctant members in line, Republicans will need to wait until November to learn whether Jackson can defend an office his party has held for more than two decades. If Lance Bottoms breaks the GOP’s long winning streak, though, she’ll make history as the first Black woman ever elected to lead any state.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Election Recaps

All race calls and estimates of the proportion of the vote that’s been tabulated come from the Associated Press. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race.

Alabama

AL-Sen (R) (65-34 Trump)

Rep. Barry Moore decisively defeated Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson 56-44 in the Republican primary runoff for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, a win that puts him on a glide path in the fall general election.

Moore, one of the most notorious election deniers in the House, benefited from both Donald Trump’s endorsement and a massive spending edge. While some polls showed Hudson ahead, Moore’s advantages proved to be far too much to overcome.

California

CA-14 (special) (66-30 Harris)

State Sen. Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez, the president of the board for Bay Area Rapid Transit, appear set to face off in an all-Democratic special election runoff on Aug. 18 ahead of their showdown in November for a full term.

Wahab leads with 43% in California’s 14th District, while Hernandez holds a 17-13 edge over businesswoman Rakhi Israni, a third Democratic candidate. The AP, which estimates that 80% of the vote is in, has called the first spot for Wahab, but it has not made a projection about who her opponent will be.

Georgia

GA-Sen (R) (50-48 Trump)

Rep. Mike Collins, boosted by a last-minute endorsement from Trump, will now take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff after the congressman scored a 56-44 win over former college football coach Derek Dooley, who had the support of term-limited Gov. Brian Kemp.

Ossoff, however, has been preparing for years and enjoys a massive financial advantage. As of late May, the incumbent reported raising more than $70 million and had $32.5 million stockpiled. Collins, by contrast, has brought in under $5 million and had under $1.2 million in the bank, though he likely spent much of that before the runoff.

Republicans, aware of the gap in both money and charisma, don’t seem especially excited about their chances.

“If you went to a laboratory and tried to create the worst general election candidate for this state and environment possible, you couldn’t do better than Mike Collins,” one unnamed “prominent Georgia Republican strategist” recently told MS Now.

This operative cited Collins’ “ton of personal baggage” and “unique ability to offend female voters,” warning that Republicans “have to hope he doesn’t take everyone else down with him.”

GA-11 (R) (61-38 Trump)

Physician John Cowan is now well on his way to Washington after turning back former congressional aide Rob Adkerson by a wide 65-35 margin in the GOP runoff for Georgia’s open 11th District. Cowan’s previous bid for Congress ended in a high-profile runoff loss to Marjorie Taylor Greene in the neighboring 14th District in 2020.

GA-LG (D & R) (50-48 Trump)

Democrat Josh McLaurin and Republican Greg Dolezal, who are each members of the state Senate, will vie to serve as Georgia’s next lieutenant governor following their victories in Tuesday’s runoffs.

This powerful post, whose occupant sets much of the agenda in the state Senate, is open because Republican incumbent Burt Jones opted to wage an unsuccessful bid for governor.

GA-SoS (D & R) (50-48 Trump)

The race to serve as Georgia’s top election official will pit Democrat Penny Brown Reynolds against Republican Tim Fleming after both easily won their respective runoffs for secretary of state on Tuesday night. The two are vying to succeed Republican Brad Raffensperger, who unsuccessfully ran for governor last month.

GA Public Service Commission (R) (50-48 Trump)

Power plant engineer Joshua Tolbert will face Democrat Angelia Pressley after winning the GOP primary runoff in a key race for Georgia’s Public Service Commission.

Republicans currently hold a 3-2 majority on the board, but if Pressley wins and Democrats successfully defend another seat, held by incumbent Peter Hubbard, they would take control of the powerful body, which regulates public utilities.

Hubbard recently appeared on The Downballot podcast to discuss his race, including the issues—like soaring electricity bills and unwelcome data center construction—that are motivating voters.

GA State Senate District 7 (special) (56-42 Harris)

Democrat Adrienne White defended a vacant seat in the Georgia Senate after her party warned that Republicans could flip the district due to disproportionate turnout generated by the GOP runoffs for U.S. Senate and governor.

White narrowly defeated Republican Aizaz Shaikh 51-49 with all precincts reporting, except for provisional ballots. While the margin may shift slightly, the AP has called the race for White.

Democrats in this Gwinnett County constituency were right to be worried that Republicans eager to vote in their two marquee races could reshape the electorate. Statewide, Republican voters cast nearly twice as many ballots as Democrats, who last month renominated Sen. Jon Ossoff without opposition and picked former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms to be their nominee for governor.

White and her allies, however, overcame those headwinds and prevented Republicans from flipping their first Democratic-held legislative seat at the ballot box anywhere in the nation since Trump returned to the White House.

Shaikh will be the GOP nominee again for a full two-year term, but White, who only ran in the special, will not be his opponent. Instead, he’ll face state Rep. Ruwa Romman, who defeated attorney Rahul Garabadu 60-40 in Tuesday’s Democratic primary runoff.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Oklahoma

Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on Aug. 25.

OK-Sen (R) (66-32 Trump)

Rep. Kevin Hern, who had the backing of Trump and the entire GOP establishment, easily turned aside minor opposition to secure the Republican nomination for Oklahoma’s open Senate seat.

OK-Gov (R) (66-32 Trump)

Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei will face off in a runoff for Oklahoma’s open governorship after both fell far short of a majority on Tuesday night.

Drummond finished first with 26.3% while Mazzei, a former state budget secretary who unexpectedly received Trump’s endorsement last month, was just behind with 25.9%. Chip Keating, another one-time member of termed-out Gov. Kevin Stitt’s administration and the son of former Gov. Frank Keating, ended up well behind in third place with 18%.

The eventual GOP nominee will be the favorite against state House Minority Leader Cyndi Munson, who captured the Democratic nomination with close to three-quarters of the vote, in the race to succeed termed-out GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt.

OK-01 (R) (60-38 Trump)

Wealthy state Rep. Mark Tedford will go up against Jackson Lahmeyer, an evangelical pastor backed by Trump, in the runoff for the Tulsa-based constituency Rep. Kevin Hern is leaving behind to run for the Senate.

Tedford, who self-funded more than $1 million, finished a clear first with 32%. Lahmeyer outpaced businessman Nathan Butterfield 26-16 for second, a performance that came just days after the British tabloid Daily Mail reported that Lahmeyer had sent sexual messages to a former Miss Oklahoma USA and that his wife had discovered the relationship last month.

Lahmeyer, who responded by acknowledging he’d “cross[ed] a boundary line through text messaging,” still denounced what he called a “distorted story” and insisted the “matter was already dealt with privately between me and my wife.” Trump, for his part, took to Truth Social one day before the election to again urge Republicans to nominate Lahmeyer.

Washington, D.C.

All primaries with three or more candidates are conducted using a ranked-choice ballot. Voters rank candidates in their order of preference, and if no one takes a majority, the last-place candidate gets eliminated and has their votes reassigned to their voters’ next preferences.

Election officials say they intend to release ranked-choice tabulations by June 21 for all ballots that have been counted by then, with final results on or close to June 26.

Washington, D.C. Mayor (D) (90-6 Harris)

Councilmember Janeese Lewis George leads former Councilmember Kenyan McDuffie 53-37 in the Democratic primary for mayor, with an estimated 64% reporting. The AP has not made a call in the race between Lewis George, a self-described democratic socialist, and McDuffie, who is closer to business groups.

The Democratic nominee will be all but assured to replace Mayor Muriel Bowser, who is not seeking a fourth term as leader of the nation’s capital.

Washington, D.C. Delegate (D) (90-6 Harris)

Councilmember Robert White scored an outright win in the Democratic primary for delegate, which sets him up to replace retiring incumbent Eleanor Holmes Norton as the capital’s nonvoting member in Congress. White, a vocal progressive, turned in a landslide victory over Brooke Pinto, a more moderate colleague on the Council of the District of Columbia, and three other candidates.

House

MD-06

Former Rep. David Trone has released an internal poll giving him a small lead over Rep. April McClain Delaney heading into Tuesday’s Democratic primary, a week after McClain Delaney shared her own numbers showing her well ahead in a contest that has smashed spending records.

Trone’s survey from Global Strategy Group finds him with a 43-40 advantage against McClain Delaney in his comeback bid for Maryland’s 6th District, which Trone gave up in 2024 to wage an unsuccessful campaign for the Senate. The firm’s memo also says that a pair of previously unreleased surveys from another firm, Impact Research, gave him a 2-point edge last month.

McClain Delaney’s pollsters, however, see a very different race between her and Trone, whose yard signs urge people to “re-elect” him. Hart Research placed her ahead 52-37 in early June, while she led by that same margin in mid-May.

But there’s no ambiguity about which candidate holds the financial advantage in the primary for this Democratic-leaning constituency based in western Maryland and the northwestern exurbs of Washington, D.C.

Trone, the founder and owner of the Total Wine chain of liquor stores, has loaned his new effort an enormous $25 million, which makes this the third time he’s broken the record for self-funding in a House campaign.

Trone first set a high-water mark in 2016 when he poured $13.4 million, or roughly $19 million in 2026 dollars, into his campaign for the 8th District, but he still lost the primary to now-Rep. Jamie Raskin.

But Trone had more success two years later when he threw down almost $18 million—about $24 million adjusted for inflation—on his bid to replace McClain Delaney’s husband, Rep. John Delaney, in the neighboring 6th District after Delaney launched an ill-fated bid for president.

No well-heeled House candidate exceeded Trone’s investment during the ensuing three election cycles, according to OpenSecrets. Trone, though, set a different record in 2024 when he spent $62 million of his fortune to finance his quest to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin.

However, he convincingly lost the primary to now-Sen. Angela Alsobrooks 53-43, while McClain Delaney won the contest to replace him in the House. But Trone was far from done with politics: Last year, the ex-congressman launched a campaign to reclaim the 6th from McClain Delaney, whom he faulted for supporting the Laken Riley Act.

McClain Delaney, for her part, has self-funded more than $8 million to win renomination, a figure that would have allowed her to outspend almost any other opponent. The congresswoman, who has Alsobrooks and other prominent Maryland Democrats in her corner, is using her resources to argue she’s the more reliable liberal in the race.

One commercial faults Trone for joining with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in calling for a constitutional convention to institute congressional term limits if Congress fails to act first. The narrator warns that such a change would give conservatives the chance to “put an abortion ban into our Constitution.”

MN-02

State Rep. Kaela Berg’s allies at EMILYs List have launched what the Minnesota Star Tribune says is “the first major ad” ahead of the August Democratic primary for Minnesota’s open 2nd District.

The opening spot, which is part of a reported $500,000 buy, begins by highlighting Berg’s other job as a flight attendant, where she “organized her union for livable wages.” (The Minnesota legislature, like many others, is a part-time body.) The ad continues, “The private jet guys have plenty of representation in DC. Kaela Berg gets it because she lives it.”

Berg faces state Sen. Matt Klein, former state Sen. Matt Little, and three little-known candidates in the primary for the House seat that Rep. Angie Craig is giving up to seek the Democratic nomination for Senate.

The winner will be favored against state Sen. Eric Pratt, who has the Republican side to himself, in a suburban Twin Cities constituency Kamala Harris carried 52-46.

Mayors & County Leaders

Orange County, CA Board of Supervisors

Two races that will determine whether Orange County Democrats retain control of the Board of Supervisors will head to runoffs in November.

With almost all of the vote counted from the June 2 nonpartisan primary, Democratic incumbent Katrina Foley holds a tiny 47.0 to 46.8 majority over Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon in the 5th District. The balance went to Lucy Vellema, an underfunded candidate who benefited from spending by Dixon’s allies at the conservative Lincoln Club.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Dixon’s backers may have helped Vellema to prevent Foley from securing the majority of the vote she needed to win outright and avoid a second round of voting this fall. But while Foley will need to keep running, she still finished first after initially trailing. Dixon led 49-45 the morning after the election, but Foley pulled ahead as more ballots were counted.

Foley’s 5th District, which includes Costa Mesa, part of Irvine, and other communities in the southern part of the county, backed Kamala Harris just 49-48—a margin of 318 votes. Foley, who won her spot on the Board in a 2021 special election, secured a full term the following year with a 51-49 win that gave Democrats control of the Board of Supervisors for the first time since 1976.

To keep it, though, Democrats must both reelect Foley and defend the 4th District that Supervisor Doug Chaffee, who has often been at odds with his party, is termed out of.

This time, though, both Chaffee and the Orange County Democratic Party are aligned in backing Buena Park Mayor Connor Traut’s campaign to win a seat Harris carried 52-45. Traut leads County Board of Education member Tim Shaw, the choice of the local GOP, by a small 33-31 spread.

Two other candidates took 18% apiece: Fullerton Mayor Fred Jung, a former Democrat who became an independent last year and had the Lincoln Club’s support; and La Habra City Councilwoman Rose Espinoza, who ran for the state Assembly in 2022 as a Democrat.

If Foley and Traunt both win in the fall, Democrats will remain in charge of the board. Democratic Supervisor Vicente Sarmiento won reelection outright this month with almost two-thirds of the vote, while the two Republican-held seats won’t be on the ballot again until 2028.

Poll Pile

• ME-Sen: Wick for 2Way:

  • Graham Platner (D): 48, Susan Collins (R-inc): 45.

• MA-Sen: Suffolk University for the Boston Globe:

  • Ed Markey (D-inc): 55, John Deaton (R): 30.

  • Seth Moulton (D): 54, Deaton (R): 26.

• MA-Gov: Suffolk:

  • Maura Healey (D-inc): 56, Michael Minogue (R): 31.

  • Healey (D-inc): 56, Brian Shortsleeve (R): 29.

• MI-Gov (R): Mitchell Research & Communications:

  • John James: 28, Mike Cox: 27, Perry Johnson: 23, Aric Nesbitt: 4.

  • May: James: 32, Johnson: 23, Cox: 19, Nesbitt: 7.

• MI-Gov (R): Tarrance Group for James:

  • James: 38, Johnson: 26, Cox: 22, Nesbitt: 12.

• MI-Gov (R): Strategic National for Johnson:

  • Johnson: 27, James: 24, Cox: 12, Nesbitt: 6, undecided: 31.

• SC-Gov (R): JMC Analytics and Polling:

  • Alan Wilson: 63, Pamela Evette: 28.

  • JMC says it is “not affiliated with any candidate running for Governor.”

• NY-13 (D): Mercury Public Affairs for National Black Empowerment Action Fund (pro-Adriano Espaillat):

  • Adriano Espaillat (inc): 35, Darializa Avila Chevalier: 27.

Leading Off

CO-Gov

Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet’s plan to escape Congress by running for governor has run into an unexpectedly tough obstacle in the form of Attorney General Phil Weiser—one his allies are now trying to dislodge with a barrage of attack ads.

“Phil Weiser claims he’s Colorado’s watchdog,” begins the narrator in a new spot from Rocky Mountain Way, a group partially funded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. “[B]ut after oil and gas companies helped elect Weiser, he rolled over, failed to join dozens of lawsuits to stop Trump’s giveaways to corporate polluters.”

But Weiser, who refused to join other Centennial State Democrats in deferring to Bennet after the senator unexpectedly joined the race last year, is firing back just as aggressively.

“Michael Bennet voted to increase funding for ICE every year of Trump’s first term,” Weiser’s narrator says in a recent ad. “Just last year, right after Trump was sworn in, Bennet voted to give ICE more power to detain and deport immigrants. His votes hurt Colorado families.”

The exchange comes as a pair of recent polls suggest that Bennet is no longer the undisputed frontrunner to win the primary on June 30—and may even be the underdog. Weiser led 41-34 in a survey conducted in late May by Colorado Community Research, which told The Downballot the poll was not conducted for a client.

Weiser’s side, though, isn’t quite so optimistic that he’s already in front. Bennet had a 36-30 advantage in a Public Policy Polling survey done just days later for a pro-Weiser group, though the memo argued the attorney general has far more room to grow than the well-known senator.

Bennet’s strong name recognition was one reason that he spent most of the contest as the favorite to capture the Democratic nomination in what’s become a solidly blue state over the past two decades. Bennet, who won reelection in 2022 by an unexpectedly wide margin, caught observers by surprise early last year when he began talking about running to succeed termed-out Gov. Jared Polis.

His ultimate decision to seek the governor’s mansion in April wound up dramatically transforming the race. While just about everyone had anticipated a packed primary, every Democrat who had been considering whether to run ended up staying out of the race, including Secretary of State Jena Griswold.

Weiser, who launched his campaign three months before Bennet, opted to continue running, but polls initially showed him far behind. Much of the chatter surrounding Colorado politics turned to speculation about who Bennet might appoint to fill the final two years of his term in the Senate—a question that would only matter if Bennet were elected governor.

Weiser, though, has argued that Bennet isn’t doing enough in Washington now to show that he deserves a new job.

“Congress should be a check on a lawless, bullying administration,” Weiser said at a debate on Saturday. “It hasn’t been.”

The attorney general has simultaneously faulted Bennet for missing too many votes while also trying to appeal to voters who would prefer the senator remain where he is. Weiser’s campaign has even distributed bumper stickers reading, “Weiser for governor. Bennet for Senate.”

Bennet has pushed back by defending his record in Congress and saying he’s the leader Colorado needs to replace Polis, who became persona non grata in Democratic circles last month after he commuted former Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters’ conviction for participating in a breach of her county’s election systems.

“I’m sorry that I’ve missed a few votes in this moment when we’re right at the end of this race, but I stand by my record of service to Colorado,” the senator said at Saturday’s debate. Bennet also argued that Weiser wasn’t “ambitious” enough to deal with challenges like global warming and affordability.

The eventual Democratic nominee will be favored to defeat whoever emerges from the three-way GOP primary—a contest that has attracted national attention for reasons no Republican should be happy about.

In recapping Christian ministry founder Victor Marx’s recent sitdown with 9News reporter Kyle Clark, HuffPost explained, “Victor Marx does exorcisms by phone, says he killed a man at age 7, and will not tell you how to call in military airstrikes as a civilian (but says he’s done it before).”

Marx, though, enjoys a massive financial advantage over state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, who has said she’s the Republican who can best appeal to independents who have soured on the GOP.

State Rep. Scott Bottoms, who has fired off evidence-free allegations that there are “pedophile rings” operating in the state capitol, rounds out the Republican field.

We’re in the thick of the 2026 primary season, with races on tap today in three states and Washington, D.C.—plus a special election in California. To help you follow along with all the action, we’ve put together our new preview of all the key races spanning dark red Alabama to the bluest precincts of the nation’s capital.

To unlock access to this entire post, plus every other primary preview we’ll publish this year—and there are many more to come!—all you have to do is upgrade to a paid subscription. It’s just $7 a month or a steeply discounted $60 a year. Thank you!

Subscribe to unlock our primary preview

The Downballot

Nancy Mace's spectacular crashout

South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace’s political career imploded in astonishing fashion on Tuesday night when she finished fifth in the GOP primary for governor—one of the most notable results that co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. There’s also Lindsey Graham, who needed $15 million in outside help to s…

Listen now

6 days ago · 3 likes · 2 comments · David Nir and David Beard

Senate

AK-Sen

Election officials in Alaska have disqualified retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan from running for the post occupied by Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan this fall.

In a letter sent on Monday, the head of the state’s Division of Elections concluded that the challenger did not launch his bid as “an actual good-faith candidacy for the office of United States Senator” but rather did so “with a purpose to confuse or mislead and to thereby compromise the ballot’s fairness or neutrality.”

Subscribe to unlock our primary preview

Dan J. Sullivan can file an appeal with the courts but has not yet said whether he might do so.

MT-Sen

Former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar earned endorsements on Monday for his independent bid for Montana’s open Senate seat from the last two Democrats elected to that post, Jon Tester and Max Baucus. He also received the support of former Republican Gov. Marc Racicot and a former state GOP chair, Susan Geise.

In January, Tester urged Democrats to unite behind Bodnar rather than field a candidate of their own. That hasn’t come to pass, however: Also on Monday, the Democratic nominee, Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead, held a press conference to reiterate that she has no plans to leave the race.

“I’m never dropping out, ever, ever, ever,” she said, “It will be a cold day in hell. I don’t know how much clearer I say that. It’s never going to happen. We’re in this to win it.”

Governors

SC-Gov

South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman, who finished third in last week’s GOP primary for governor, has endorsed state Attorney General Alan Wilson ahead of his runoff next week against Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette.

Norman, who took 17% of the vote, is the second also-ran to get behind Wilson. On election night, the attorney general earned the support of Rep. Nancy Mace, who had previously accused him of failing to prosecute four men she accused of rape and said she would “personally make sure that he is never governor.” Mace finished fifth with just 12%.

The fourth-place candidate, businessman Rom Reddy, has said he does not plan to endorse in the runoff after taking 14% in the primary. In the first round of voting, Evette, who has Donald Trump’s backing, edged out Wilson 29-26.

But a pair of polls, both conducted during the first two days of the runoff campaign, show Wilson with the advantage.

An Opinion Diagnostics survey finds the attorney general ahead 46-39, though that represented a drop from the 48-29 lead the firm gave him earlier this month. Wilson’s team has also released an internal poll from National Public Affairs giving him a wider 52-36 advantage over Evette.

Subscribe to unlock our primary preview

House

CA-11

Wealthy activist Saikat Chakrabarti, who finished a distant third in the primary for California’s open 11th District, has endorsed San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan in the general election and says he’ll fund a super PAC to support her campaign against state Sen. Scott Wiener.

Wiener won 41% of the vote in the top-two primary while Chan, who had the backing of retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi, took 30 and Chakrabarti 18. All are Democrats.

FL-15

Republican Rep. Laurel Lee, who had looked set to earn a stiff primary challenge following the passage of Florida’s new congressional map, wound up drawing no intra-party opponents when Friday’s filing deadline came and went.

In early May, Hernando County Commissioner Steve Champion kicked off a bid against Lee, but just a few weeks later, he dropped out, saying in a statement that the “Republican majority is too important to jeopardize in any way.”

Lee faced potential jeopardy because almost two-thirds of the redrawn 15th District was new to her, but after Champion bailed, no one else stepped up. Two little-known Democrats are running against the incumbent, but she’ll be heavily favored in November given the district’s strong conservative lean.

FL-24

The field for Florida’s open 24th Congressional District expanded just ahead of Friday’s filing deadline when two more prominent local Democrats entered the race.

Attorney Kendrick Meek Jr., whose father and grandmother both served previous versions of this district, kicked off a bid on Friday, two days after filing paperwork with the state.

Joining Meek that same day was Marshall Davis, an acclaimed figure in the Miami arts scene whose name now adorns the Marshal L. Davis African Heritage Cultural Arts Center.

Several other Democrats were already running for the safely blue seat held by retiring Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson, including Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, former County Commissioner Jean Monestime, physician Rudy Moise, and state Sen. Shevrin Jones.

Secretaries of State

NV-SoS

Election conspiracy theorist Jim Marchant has prevailed in last week’s Republican primary and will get his rematch against Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, the Associated Press projected on Monday evening.

Marchant, a former member of the Assembly, scored a narrow 33-31 victory over Shirley Folkins-Roberts, a nonprofit co-founder backed by Gov. Joe Lombardo. Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is best known for her disastrous 2010 Senate campaign against the late Harry Reid, took third place with 26%.

Aguilar won a tight 49-47 victory in 2022 against Marchant, who declared during that campaign that anyone who had won an election in Nevada since 2006 was “installed by the deep-state cabal.”

Ballot Measures

NE Ballot

A Republican-led group backing a ballot initiative to award all of Nebraska’s electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis has dropped its efforts ahead of a July 2 deadline to submit signatures.

The measure would have amended the state Constitution to end Nebraska’s practice of giving an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district. Republicans in the state legislature have also sought to advance a similar amendment but have lacked the votes to overcome a filibuster because of GOP defections.

Prosecutors & Sheriffs

Hennepin County, MN Attorney

Democratic state Rep. Cedrick Frazier won his party’s endorsement on Saturday ahead of this summer’s officially nonpartisan primary for Hennepin County attorney, an influential post that incumbent Mary Moriarty is giving up after one term.

Frazier scored the win against former acting U.S. Attorney Anders Folk, attorney Matt Pelikan, and Hao Nguyen, who works as a prosecutor in neighboring Ramsey County. Local prosecutor Diane Krenz, the fifth and final candidate running to replace Moriarty, did not compete for the endorsement at the Democrats’ weekend convention.

While Frazier’s victory doesn’t guarantee him a spot in the fall general election, the endorsement gives him access to resources like the state party’s voter database. The nod can also help Frazier, who already had the support of prominent figures like Rep. Ilhan Omar and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, stand out in this busy race.

All five will face off on a single ballot on Aug. 11, with the top two vote-getters advancing to the fall general election. While the race is officially nonpartisan, the next attorney for Hennepin County, a solidly blue community that includes Minneapolis and many of its suburbs, is likely to be a Democrat.

Poll Pile

• GA-Gov: Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy:

  • Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 52, Burt Jones (R): 42.

  • Lance Bottoms (D): 53, Rick Jackson (R): 38.

• MN-Gov: Mason-Dixon for the Minnesota Star Tribune, KARE 11, and the University of Minnesota:

  • Amy Klobuchar (D): 48, Lisa Demuth (R): 40.

  • Klobuchar (D): 48, Kendall Qualls (R): 37.

  • Klobuchar (D): 53, Mike Lindell (R): 36.

• AL-02 (R): Peak Insights:

  • Rhett Marques: 30, Joshua McKee: 10, other candidates 4% or less, undecided: 42.

The power of Donald Trump’s blessing will once again be tested in multiple races on Tuesday, as voters in Alabama and Georgia head back to the polls for runoffs while Oklahoma and Washington, D.C., hold their primaries.

While Trump has weighed in on behalf of many candidates, it’s a pair of high-profile statewide contests where his choices face the greatest headwinds, thanks to the emergence of two insurgent candidates.

Nowhere is that more true than in Alabama’s Senate race, where Trump gave his backing to Rep. Barry Moore all the way back in January. But the congressman nonetheless finds himself locked in a difficult battle against a political newcomer.

In Georgia, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones likewise received an endorsement from Trump long ago—all the way back in August. But billionaire Rick Jackson has endeared himself to the MAGA base by positioning himself as an outsider.

In addition to the states above, California is holding an election for its vacant 14th Congressional District. Oklahoma and California will stage runoffs in August if no one clears a majority, while D.C. will use its brand-new ranked-choice voting system for the first time.

Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch on another coast-to-coast election night. When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And as always, please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night, starting at 7 PM ET when polls start to close in Georgia.

Alabama

Polls close at 8 PM ET / 7 PM local time.

AL-Sen (R) (65-34 Trump)

Rep. Barry Moore, Trump’s pick for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat, is locked in a surprisingly unpredictable primary runoff against Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson.

Moore, one of the most notorious election deniers in the House, finished a strong first last month with 39%, while Hudson took second with 26%. But Hudson, who is campaigning as a conservative outsider, is hoping Moore will be vulnerable in a year that’s already seen GOP voters reject seven House incumbents who wanted a promotion.

Hudson and his allies are also arguing that Moore, who served in the Army National Guard, falsely suggested that he’d served in combat overseas. Moore has pushed back by insisting he’d “never claimed to be” in combat, while his allies have sought to link Hudson to Democratic donors.

Pollsters disagree on which man has the advantage for the GOP nomination, which is tantamount to victory in this dark red state. One survey conducted shortly after Memorial Day gave Hudson a 10-point advantage, while another poll done just days later showed Moore with a comparable lead.

Georgia

Polls close at 7 PM ET.

GA-Sen (R) (50-48 Trump)

Rep. Mike Collins faces Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, in the Republican nomination battle to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

Collins outpaced Dooley 41-30 last month, while Rep. Buddy Carter, who finished in third with 25%, did not back either finalist. Collins, though, earned a far more influential—albeit very late—endorsement from Trump.

Read more

Leading Off

TX-23, FL-20

Republican governors in two red states with congressional seats that have been vacant for almost two months still have not called special elections, even as a grave new agricultural threat just surfaced in one of them.

That threat is the New World screwworm, a fly whose eggs, laid in the wounds of warm-blooded animals, transform into flesh-eating larvae that can kill their hosts. The fly poses a particular risk to livestock, though it can also harm wildlife, pets, and even humans.

Thanks to aggressive eradication efforts, the screwworm, which is endemic in South America and the Caribbean, has largely been kept out of the United States. But that changed this month, when the USDA announced that an infestation had been found in a calf in Zavala County, Texas.

It so happens that Zavala County is located in the southwestern corner of Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, which has been without representation since mid-April, when Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales resigned after the House Ethics Committee said it would investigate a relationship he had with a former staffer.

That, the Texas Tribune reports, has left frustrated ranchers without a voice on Capitol Hill who can advocate for them within the federal government. Both candidates running in the November general election, Republican Brandon Herrera and Democrat Katy Padilla Stout, say they’ve sought to help ranchers, but, lacking any formal authority, their abilities are limited.

However, Herrera, a far-right “gunfluencer” who had been challenging Gonzales before he quit, has avoided calling on Gov. Greg Abbott to schedule a special election. Padilla Stout, by contrast, has said the new crisis demands one.

“We have an emergency that is specifically in the district,” she told the Tribune. “If this isn’t cause for calling a special election, I don’t know what is.”

Under Texas law, Abbott has no fixed timetable for calling an election, though the Constitution instructs that governors “shall issue Writs of Election to fill such Vacancies” when they arise.

Abbott’s refusal to act could therefore spur a legal challenge, but for unclear reasons, it hasn’t—at least not yet. If no special election is held, that could leave constituents unrepresented until Congress reconvenes in January, a gap of 264 days.

A similar situation is playing out in South Florida, albeit without the menace of flesh-eating parasites.

There, the majority-Black 20th District has been vacant since late April, when Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick stepped down amid an escalating ethics investigation and a pending criminal trial on corruption charges.

Like Abbott, Gov. Ron DeSantis has wide leeway over when to call a special election, and like Abbott, he still hasn’t done so—something he’s frequently done in the past, including in this very district.

Following Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings’ death in 2021, DeSantis dragged his feet for a month before finally scheduling an election, and he only did so after a candidate filed a lawsuit seeking that he be ordered to do so.

Yet even when DeSantis did take action, he set a timetable that resulted in the district remaining vacant for at least 280 days—around twice as long as the wait in previous specials.

It wasn’t hard to imagine why DeSantis might have behaved as he did. The safely blue 20th District was certain to elect another Democrat to succeed Hastings, so leaving it unfilled as long as possible prevented the party from replenishing its caucus.

But when it’s suited him, DeSantis has moved quickly. In one case in 2022, for instance, DeSantis waited just 13 days to set an election for a deep-red district in the state House—a seat Republicans had little chance of losing.

In Texas, though, that’s a real worry for the GOP, even though it shouldn’t be.

Republicans originally drew the heavily Latino 23rd as a solidly red district and left it that way when they further gerrymandered the state’s congressional boundaries last year. Under the new map, the district would have voted for Donald Trump by a 57-42 margin—exactly as it had under the old lines.

But boomeranging attitudes toward Republicans among many Latino voters have changed the calculus. Combined with Herrera’s extensive history of extremism and bigotry, Democrats believe Padilla Stout has a real shot at an upset in the fall.

And in a lower-turnout special election—the sort Democrats have dominated during Trump’s second term—her chances could be even better. If Abbott never calls one, though, Democrats will never find out.

The Downballot

Nancy Mace's spectacular crashout

South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace’s political career imploded in astonishing fashion on Tuesday night when she finished fifth in the GOP primary for governor—one of the most notable results that co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. There’s also Lindsey Graham, who needed $15 million in outside help to s…

Listen now

6 days ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Senate

GA-Sen

Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Mike Collins in the wee hours on Sunday, a move that came just two days before the Republican primary runoff to face Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

Trump, writing on Truth Social at 12:56 AM ET, both praised “‘MAGA’ Mike Collins” and took the time to bash Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach backed by Gov. Brian Kemp.

“I don’t know Derek Dooley, and neither does anyone else, but he seems like a nice person,” Trump said of Collins’ opponent, the son of the son of late University of Georgia coach Vince Dooley. “Unfortunately, he has lived outside of Georgia for most of his life, didn’t vote in 2020 or 2016, and said that I lost Georgia in 2020 when, in actuality, the facts have now proven that I won by a lot!”

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Dooley, who both failed to vote during Trump’s first two campaigns and acknowledged to supporters in February that “the president lost Georgia,” was already the underdog even before MAGA’s master gave him this last-second piece of bad news.

Collins, an election conspiracy theorist who ran ads during his 2022 House campaign claiming, “[Y]ou count the legal votes that were cast in the state of Georgia, Donald Trump won this state,” led Dooley 41-30 in the first round of the primary on May 19.

And while the congressman’s campaign was thrown into crisis days later after he parted ways with his longtime strategist over a tweet mocking rape allegations against former NBC News host Matt Lauer by the wife of a pro-Dooley operative, the story doesn’t seem to have changed the trajectory of the race.

A JMC Analytics poll showed Collins ahead 55-39 after days of bad press at the end of May, and no other surveys have been released in the ensuing weeks.

Governors

FL-Gov

Democratic state Rep. Dotie Joseph entered the race for Florida’s open governorship just ahead of Friday’s candidate filing deadline, saying she was moved to run by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings’ recent decision to drop out of the race following a prostate cancer diagnosis.

Demings’ departure had left former Rep. David Jolly as the only notable Democrat running, but Joseph said she wanted to give voters a choice. According to the Miami Herald, she said that “while she respects Jolly’s turnaround from Republican to Democrat, ‘his record speaks for itself.’”

The winner of the Democratic nomination will likely face Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, in the general election.

GA-Gov

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones received an endorsement Sunday from Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, the term-limited incumbent Jones is campaigning to replace, just ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff. Jones, whom Donald Trump backed last year, faces billionaire Rick Jackson, who has been airing ads linking himself to Kemp.

The winner will take on former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, who secured the Democratic nomination last month.

House

CA-04, CA-14, CA-43

The Associated Press on Friday evening called the second general election spot in three House races in California.

Longtime Rep. Mike Thompson learned that evening that he’ll face a competitive battle in the 4th District against venture capitalist Eric Jones, a fellow Democrat who had been in third place in the week-and-a-half since the June 2 top-two primary but pulled into second as more ballots were counted.

With almost all of the vote in, Thompson is in front with 41%, while Jones narrowly outpaced Republican Ray Riehle 22-21. Jones and his allies spent millions during the first round arguing that the 14-term incumbent is no longer the right person to represent this reliably blue constituency, which includes part of California’s wine country and other communities like the college town of Davis. They now have almost five more months to make their case.

The vacant 14th District in the East Bay will also host an all-Democratic general election. State Sen. Aisha Wahab took a strong first with 38%, while BART board president Melissa Hernandez defeated Republican Wendy Huang 17-13 for the second slot in the fall.

Wahab and Hernandez, though, will face off again much sooner. The two Democrats, as well as Huang and eight other candidates, are competing on Tuesday in the special election to replace Democrat Eric Swalwell, who resigned in disgrace in April. A runoff would take place on Aug. 18 if no one wins a majority of the vote, so voters in the 14th could end up filling out ballots in four separate elections this year.

Finally, Democratic Rep. Maxine Waters will have nothing to worry about now that she’ll face a Republican rather than another Democrat in the 43rd District, a constituency in and around South Los Angeles that favored Kamala Harris 73-24.

Waters is far ahead with 64%, while Republican Cristian Morales beat out Democrat Myla Rahman 17-15 for second. Rahman argued she’d be a “more energetic, younger, more relatable” representative than the 87-year-old Waters, but she raised little money to advance her case against the 18-term incumbent.

FL-07

Democrat Alan Grayson, a former congressman who long ago morphed into a perennial candidate, jumped into the race for Florida’s 7th District right before the filing deadline.

Several Democrats were already running to take on scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Cory Mills, though the DCCC recently endorsed former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, the fundraising leader.

FL-11

Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini gave up his bid for Florida’s open 11th Congressional District and endorsed former County Property Appraiser Carey Baker in the GOP primary on Friday. Baker, who lost reelection in 2024, had filed to run just days earlier, after Sabatini had been in the race for more than a month.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Sabatini had unsuccessfully challenged the state’s longstanding resign-to-run law, which would have required him to give up his post to seek the seat held by retiring GOP Rep. Daniel Webster. Sabatini refused to quit his current job, though, saying on social media that “[i]t would be irresponsible to do so because there’s too much on the line for Lake County.”

FL-22

Palm Beach County Mayor Sara Baxter abandoned her three-day-old bid for Florida’s open 22nd District, just hours after Donald Trump posted on Truth Social Thursday evening that he “would rather have her stay on the Palm Beach County Commission (where so many important things are happening!), than run for Congress.”

Trump called Baxter a “fantastic person, and highly qualified” but said that “on a somewhat selfish basis,” he wanted her to seek reelection—another request she complied with.

Trump didn’t specify any reasons for his affection for Baxter, but last month, she cast the deciding vote to give his family business control over the name “Donald J. Trump International Airport.” That’s how Palm Beach International Airport will soon be known following a vote by the Florida legislature to rename it earlier this year.

Several other Republicans are still running for the open 22nd District, which the GOP’s new gerrymander made much redder, though Trump didn’t express a particular preference for any alternatives. The most prominent Democrat running is businesswoman Pia Dandiya, who has already raised more than $1 million.

MD-05

Former Capital Police officer Harry Dunn is airing a new ad attacking Del. Adrian Boafo over the support he’s received from the crypto industry in the Democratic primary for Maryland’s open 5th Congressional District.

The spot’s narrator begins by charging that “crypto billionaires are spending millions to buy Maryland’s election.” It then reads aloud recent comments by Democratic Sen. Chris Van Hollen, who recently held a press conference criticizing the torrent of money that’s flooded into the race on behalf of Boafo.

“They are spending because they believe the beneficiary of their spending—in this case, one candidate, Adrian Boafo—will be a dependable vote in support of their special interests,” he said. Van Hollen has not endorsed anyone in the contest.

To date, Boafa has been the beneficiary of more than $8 million in outside spending, with a pro-crypto super PAC called Protect Progress shelling out nearly $5 million and AIPAC’s political arm deploying close to $3 million.

The rest of the large field of hopefuls vying to succeed retiring Rep. Steny Hoyer has received just $135,000 in third-party aid, all of which has gone toward former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker.

MI-13

State Rep. Donavan McKinney on Friday earned endorsements from the Michigan AFL-CIO and the state’s branch of the United Auto Workers in his bid to unseat Rep. Shri Thanedar in the August Democratic primary for the safely blue 13th District.

NJ-09

A week and a half after New Jersey’s primaries, the Associated Press finally called the Republican primary in the 9th District for Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino, who will take on Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou in November.

Pino defeated attorney Tiffany Buress, the wife of former New York Giants wide receiver Plaxico Burress, by a narrow 51-49 margin.

Following Pou’s unexpectedly close 51-46 win in 2024, Republicans had hoped that this district, which is home to many Latino voters, would present a ripe opportunity for them in the midterms.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

But many of those same voters have already swung back toward Democrats. Donald Trump unexpectedly carried the 9th by a 49-48 margin two years ago, a huge turnaround from Joe Biden’s 59-40 edge in 2020. However, in last year’s election for governor, the district returned to form as Democrat Mikie Sherrill also posted a 59-40 win, according to calculations from the New Jersey Globe.

NY-17

A mystery group with apparent links to Republicans is spending $1.5 million to air ads seeking to tie former National Security Council official Cait Conley to ICE ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary in New York’s competitive 17th District.

The new negative spots, from an outfit called Progressive Champions PAC, highlight consulting work Conley did for an AI firm that has touted its involvement with the data surveillance giant Palantir and the Department of Homeland Security.

“True activists fought ICE’s atrocities,” a voiceover intones, “but Conley kept collecting. That’s not progressive—that’s profiteering.”

Conley, the frontrunner for the Democratic nod to take on GOP Rep. Mike Lawler, called the charges “false” in a statement. She slammed the ad’s sponsor as a “MAGA Dark-Money Super PAC” but also pointed a finger at her top rival, Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson.

Davidson, she charged, “has actually called on these outside groups for support in a desperate attempt to save her flailing campaign, directing them with a redbox message they are now mirroring exactly.”

“Red boxes” are dedicated sections on a campaign’s website that are designed to circumvent laws forbidding candidates from coordinating with outside groups. Davidson’s redbox calls on her supporters to air TV ads with a message very similar to that used in the PAC’s new ad, but she disavowed the new campaign.

“Hearing that a dark money group formed by Republicans is trying to create chaos in our Democratic primary here in #NY17,” she wrote on X. “I want to be clear the GOP has no place here. Stay out.”

Conley also sought to tie the effort to other recent attempts by Republicans to meddle in Democratic primaries, most of which have been unsuccessful. Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick noted that Progressive Champions uses the same Alabama bank as an outfit called Real Change PAC, which sought to interfere in recent Democratic races in New Jersey and Maine.

Leading Off

Special Elections

Georgia Democrats are warning that Republicans could flip a state Senate seat in a special election on Tuesday, an outcome that would leave Democrats down a member heading into a crucial special session devoted to redistricting that begins the very next day.

“In a district that would normally be an easy win for Democrats, Republican voters are vastly outpacing Democratic voters in the first three days,” former state Rep. Beth Moore told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution of the early voting numbers in the race for the 7th Senate District, based in Gwinnett County outside Atlanta.

The problem is one of timing. As Moore alluded, Democrat Adrienne White would normally be the favorite over Republican Aizaz Shaikh in a constituency that, according to calculations by The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried 56-42 two years ago.

But the special election will take place on the same day that Republicans—and only Republicans—hold closely watched runoffs in their primaries for the U.S. Senate and governor.

Moore told the AJC that disproportionate GOP turnout for those statewide contests could result in a “nightmare scenario” for Democrats further down the ballot. Activist Seth Taylor, likewise, called the GOP’s early voting advantage a “five-alarm fire” that Democrats need to address before it’s too late.

While this seat, which Democrat Nabilah Parkes resigned in March to focus on her campaign for lieutenant governor, will be on the ballot again in November, Democrats worry that Shaikh would strengthen Republicans at the worst time possible.

Last month, GOP Gov. Brian Kemp called a special session to redraw Georgia’s maps for Congress, the state Senate, and the state House—as well as “any other state office elected by district”—in time for the 2028 elections.

Republicans currently hold a 33-21 majority in the 56-member Senate (another Democratic seat is vacant) and a large edge in the House, so they’ll have the numbers to pass their preferred maps no matter how this special election goes—at least on paper.

But recent GOP infighting over new maps has derailed the redistricting process in other states, including Indiana and South Carolina. Democrats, therefore, don’t want to make it any easier for the GOP to ram through new gerrymanders.

A win for Shaikh, an Air Force veteran, would also give his party some rare good news during a tough midterm cycle.

Shaikh would be the first Republican to flip a Democratic-held legislative seat anywhere in the nation since Trump returned to the White House. Democrats, by contrast, have flipped 12 Republican-controlled districts through special elections, plus another 18 seats in New Jersey and Virginia during those states’ regularly scheduled contests last November.

Shaikh also won the Republican nomination for a full two-year term last month without opposition, but White will not be his opponent again this fall. That’s because White, who works in the banking industry, is running only in the special election. On her website, she explained her decision by saying, “Gwinnett deserves a state senator focused on protecting our community, not campaigning for reelection.”

Conversely, the two Democrats competing in Tuesday’s primary runoff for a full term opted not to enter the special election.

State Rep. Ruwa Romman said in March she would have been forced to resign from the lower chamber if she’d run for the rest of Parkes’ term, which would have left her constituents without representation during the remainder of the legislature’s regular session. Attorney Rahul Garabadu, meanwhile, said he wanted to focus entirely on his campaign for a full term.

Parkes, though, will also be on the ballot on Tuesday as she competes against state Sen. Josh McLaurin in the Democratic runoff for lieutenant governor. That contest, however, is far less likely to drive Democrats to the polls compared to the GOP battles in Georgia’s two marquee statewide elections.

“Republicans are voting. Democrats need to vote too,” Taylor wrote in a Facebook post shared by White. “Adrienne White can absolutely win this race, but only if Democratic voters actually show up.”

The Downballot is a proudly pro-democracy site, and that means we cover stories whether they’re good news for democracy—or bad news.

We can’t just bury our heads when the news is grim and only listen to what we want to hear. At the same time, spreading unwarranted doom about American politics encourages defeatism and only boosts the enemies of democracy.

Every day, we strive to strike the right balance because we’re fanatically committed to the truth. If you appreciate our commitment to reality-based elections coverage without sugar-coating or catastrophizing, then we hope you’ll upgrade to a paid subscription to support our unique work.

Support our reality-based news coverage

The Downballot

Nancy Mace's spectacular crashout

South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace’s political career imploded in astonishing fashion on Tuesday night when she finished fifth in the GOP primary for governor—one of the most notable results that co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. There’s also Lindsey Graham, who needed $15 million in outside help to s…

Listen now

5 days ago · 1 like · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Senate

MI-Sen

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made his preference for Rep. Haley Stevens explicit by telling Punchbowl News, “I think she has the best chance to win” the general election.

Schumer’s comments came the week after the New York Times reported that he’d asked donors to support her in the August Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat.

Until now, though, Schumer had remained publicly silent about which candidate he’d like to see take on former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has the Republican side to himself.

Stevens faces former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow in the primary, both of whom were quick to argue that Wolverine State Democrats should reject a candidate backed by Schumer.

House

NY-17

Former National Security Council official Cait Conley is the beneficiary of what Punchbowl News reports is a $500,000 ad buy from the political arm of the centrist New Democrat Coalition ahead of the June 23 Democratic primary.

The spending comes two weeks after VoteVets launched what it said was a $1 million ad buy to help Conley win the nomination to take on Republican Rep. Mike Lawler in New York’s 17th District. So far, it’s disclosed expenditures of more than $800,000.

Third-party groups have not reported spending to aid any of the other four Democrats running to represent this competitive constituency in the Hudson Valley.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Ballot Measures

OH Ballot

Ohio voters will decide this fall whether to enshrine the state’s voter ID requirement in the state constitution.

The GOP-dominated state House voted along party lines to place the proposed amendment on the ballot on Wednesday evening, two days after Donald Trump ordered Republicans to “PASS THIS NOW.” The state Senate, which is also controlled by the GOP, passed the proposal last week.

Some hardliners had criticized the amendment because it does not require that anyone casting a ballot by mail provide a photo ID, raising the possibility that they could derail it. But they were appeased when lawmakers swiftly passed a separate bill that, if signed by Republican Gov. Mike DeWine, would mandate that voters include a copy of their ID when they either request an absentee ballot or mail one in.

Election administrators from both parties, however, are not happy with the new rules for mail voters.

According to the Associated Press, Licking County Elections Director Brian Mead, a Republican representing Ohio’s bipartisan Election Officials Association, called the bill “dire” in testimony before the legislature on Tuesday.

“It was one of those things where we have concerns on both sides,” Mead said.

Poll Pile

• CO-Gov (D): Colorado Community Research:

  • Phil Weiser: 41, Michael Bennet: 34.

• SC-Gov (R): Opinion Diagnostics:

  • Alan Wilson: 48, Pamela Evette: 29.

  • The poll was conducted June 1-2. The first round of the primary took place on June 9, and Wilson and Evette advanced to the runoff.

• NY-13 (D): Data for Progress for the Justice Democrats (pro-Darializa Avila Chevalier):

  • Darializa Avila Chevalier: 39, Adriano Espaillat (inc): 35, two other candidates receive 2% each.

• SC-01 (R): Meeting Street Insights for Winning for Women (pro-Jenny Costa Honeycutt):

  • Jenny Costa Honeycutt: 35, Mark Smith: 28.

  • The poll was conducted June 2-4 shortly before the first round of the primary.

Leading Off

NV-02

The Associated Press projected Wednesday morning that Air Force veteran David Flippo had decisively won the Republican nomination for Nevada’s open 2nd Congressional District, a development Democrats hope will give them an opening to flip a conservative constituency they’ve never held before.

Flippo, who picked up Donald Trump’s endorsement late in the campaign, will take on former state Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson, who easily secured the Democratic nod on Tuesday.

During the primary, Benitez-Thompson highlighted her long history in northern Nevada, while Flippo spent the race on the receiving end of attacks portraying him as an interloper from the wrong end of the state.

“Vegas Dave Flippo. He ran for Congress in Las Vegas,” began the narrator in a recent ad targeting him. “He’s a fraud just shopping for another political office.”

Retiring Rep. Mark Amodei has also taken issue with his would-be successor’s brief history in the 2nd District, a vast constituency home to the Reno area, the state capital of Carson City, and most of Nevada’s rural communities—a region often known as the “cow counties.”

“We’ve got a phenomenal tradition here of supporting people that are neighbors, people that are friends, people that have qualifications, people that work the issues, and people who call Nevada—our part of Nevada—home,” Amodei emphasized in a video in support of former state Senate Minority Leader James Settelmeyer ahead of the primary.

But Flippo, who moved some 400 miles north from Las Vegas to Reno after Amodei announced in February that he wouldn’t run again, has offered an unusual defense for his distinct lack of ties to the district.

“I’m from everywhere,” he told a clutch of supporters in remarks quoted by the Nevada Independent. “I don’t have a hometown.”

At the same event, he also argued that his military service prevented him from laying down deep roots anywhere.

“I’ve made Nevada my home,” he said. “I’ve lived here longer than anywhere else, other than maybe the Middle East, and I’ve lived here over a decade. So, I spent a lot of time in the Middle East, but I can’t run for Congress in the Middle East.”

Flippo, though, repeatedly struggled to launch his political career in Sin City.

In 2022, he unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination for a state Assembly seat in Las Vegas. He then sought to challenge Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in the 4th Congressional District, which is based in the northern Las Vegas area but also includes a slice of rural central Nevada. However, he narrowly lost the primary after Trump endorsed his main opponent.

Undeterred, Flippo announced last spring that he would again seek the GOP nomination to take on Horsford, but his new campaign to flip this blue-leaning district attracted relatively little attention as Trump’s declining approval ratings limited the GOP’s opportunities to go on offense.

Still, Flippo remained confident about his chances, tweeting in November, “This is how we will win, one vote, one street, one neighborhood at a time.”

But Amodei’s decision to retire convinced Flippo it was time to seek out new streets and new neighborhoods.

In March, he abruptly changed course, switching from the 4th District to the newly open—and far redder—2nd.

“[W]e need to give President Trump the firepower that he needs to fight the liberals in Washington,” he asserted in a video relaunching his campaign. This time, Trump responded favorably to his pitch by rewarding Flippo with his endorsement. That seal of approval helped Flippo blow past Settelmeyer, who had Amodei and Gov. Joe Lombardo in his corner.

Benitez-Thompson, however, thinks that local voters want something different than what Flippo has to offer. The Democrat, a former Miss Nevada who became the first Latina to serve as majority leader in the Assembly following the 2016 elections, has said she’s running “to represent Northern Nevada families, seniors, veterans, students, and immigrants - not Trump and DC.”

Benitez-Thompson, though, has a challenging task ahead of her as she tries to become the first Democrat to represent the 2nd District in its more than four decades of existence.

Following the 1980 census, Nevada, which had been confined to just a single at-large congressional district for more than a century, finally gained a second seat in the House. Republican Barbara Vucanovich won the 1982 race to become the first representative for the 2nd District in the northern half of the state, while Democrat Harry Reid revived his stalled political career by winning the 1st District in Las Vegas.

While strong population growth in and around Vegas led to the state earning a third, and later a fourth, congressional district in the 21st century, the 2nd has remained a GOP bastion centered on northern Nevada. Though Republicans haven’t always sailed to victory here―Democrats fell about 5 points short in both 1992 and 2006―the GOP has never lost.

Democrats last made a serious effort to flip the 2nd during a closely watched 2011 special election, but Amodei instead scored a blowout 58-36 win against Democratic state Treasurer Kate Marshall. (Marshall, whose political career survived that huge setback, took a strong first place on Tuesday in the nonpartisan primary for mayor of Reno.)

Amodei’s critics hoped to finally beat him in 2024 by consolidating around an independent rather than fielding a Democratic opponent. But Amodei went on to defeat Greg Kidd, a wealthy businessman who ran without a party affiliation, 55-36 as Trump was carrying his district 56-42.

Kidd decided to run as a Democrat shortly before Amodei announced he wouldn’t seek another term, but Benitez-Thompson easily defeated him on Tuesday.

Benitez-Thompson, however, has only raised around $80,000 from donors, though she argued to the Independent that she “knew I could outpeople” her well-heeled primary rival.

“I’ve lived in this community for a long, long time,” she said. “Heck, you know, even my best friend from elementary school is helping out on the campaign.”

Benitez-Thompson will need to dramatically up her fundraising game to have a chance of beating Flippo, but she may also benefit from a lack of unity in GOP ranks.

Notably, Settelmeyer did not mention Flippo at all in a statement acknowledging his loss. And Amodei’s most recent tweet is still one from late May telling Trump he’d made a “mistake” by backing Flippo.

“With all due respect Mr. President, Nevada already has five representatives who live in Clark County. Your endorsement if followed, would make it six out of six,” Amodei wrote last month. “CD-2 has been especially good to you throughout your three runs. This endorsement is an incredibly curious way to say thank you to those people who have been the bedrock of your political endeavors here in original Nevada.”

The Downballot is supported by readers like you—and we wouldn’t have it any other way. Corporate megadonors and billionaire sugar daddies might sound like a nice thing to have, but they can yank their support and leave you stranded on a whim. Just ask anyone who worked at the Washington Post about Jeff Bezos.

We don’t want to live like that—and we don’t have to, thanks to you. If you appreciate the unique content we deliver every weekday, then we hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support our work if you haven’t already done so.

Upgrade to support our unique work

The Downballot Podcast

Nancy Mace’s spectacular crashout

South Carolina Rep. Nancy Mace’s political career imploded in astonishing fashion on Tuesday night when she finished fifth in the GOP primary for governor—one of the most notable results that co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast. There’s also Lindsey Graham, who needed $15 million in outside help to survive a race against a guy who advocated for “medical cocaine,” plus several important uncalled races in Maine, where ranked-choice tabulations will determine the winners next week.

State Sen. Mike Gianaris also explains how New York Democrats are moving to counteract the GOP’s new turbocharged gerrymanders. Gianaris tells us why the state’s redistricting system, which was designed to prop up Republicans, is so broken, and how a new constitutional amendment would allow Democrats to enact a new congressional map before 2028. But, he cautions, the vote on that amendment—likely in November of next year—will be a difficult and expensive battle.

Governors

FL-Gov

Former Rep. David Jolly, the lone prominent Democrat seeking Florida’s open governorship, has tapped former Rep. Gwen Graham, who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2018, as his running mate.

Graham, the daughter of the late Bob Graham, who served as both governor and senator, was a colleague of Jolly’s in the House during her lone term in office. (At the time, Jolly was still a Republican.) Their careers were both cut short in 2016, though, thanks to a new court-imposed map that made Graham’s district much redder and Jolly’s significantly bluer.

The following cycle, Graham waged a bid for governor but lost the Democratic primary to Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum by a 34-31 margin. Gillum went on to lose to Republican Ron DeSantis by less than one percentage point.

The Jolly-Graham ticket is likely to face Republican Rep. Byron Donalds, who has not yet picked a nominee for lieutenant governor.

House

CA-06, CA-22

The DCCC added former state Sen. Richard Pan and Visalia school board trustee Randy Villegas to its Red to Blue list for top candidates on Wednesday, after both of their primaries were called a day earlier.

Pan is facing Rep. Kevin Kiley, who ditched his Republican affiliation in March but still caucuses with the GOP, in California’s 6th District. Villegas, meanwhile, defeated a DCCC-backed candidate, Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains, for the right to take on Republican Rep. David Valadao in California’s 22nd District.

FL-11

Wealthy businessman Joe Strada announced Tuesday that he’d run to replace retiring Rep. Dan Webster, a fellow Republican, saying he’d self-fund $5 million. Strada is one of several Republicans campaigning for the 11th District, a Central Florida constituency Donald Trump would have carried 57-42, though the lineup won’t be set until filing closes on Friday.

FL-24

Miami-Dade County Mayor Daniella Levine Cava, one of the most prominent Democrats in South Florida, has endorsed County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert in the busy race to replace retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson in the safely blue 24th District.

And the field appears set to grow still larger. Attorney Kendrick Meek Jr., the son and namesake of Wilson’s immediate predecessor, filed paperwork with the state on Wednesday for a potential campaign. The younger Meek, whose grandmother, Carrie Meek, also held this seat, does not appear to have run for office before.

Several other Democrats are vying for this seat, including state Sen. Shevrin Jones, physician Rudy Moise, former County Commissioner Jean Monestime, and businesswoman Christine Sanon-Jules.

FL-28, FL-27

Businessman Hector Mujica said Wednesday he was ending his campaign against Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez because of what he characterized as “a voter registration discrepancy” that prevented him from continuing his bid for the Democratic nomination for Florida’s 28th District.

Mujica’s departure leaves Navy veteran Phil Ehr, who lost to Gimenez 65-35 in 2024, as the only notable Democrat in the race.

Florida Politics, though, reported earlier this week that Mujica has been encouraging former federal prosecutor Robin Peguero to take on Gimenez. Peguero, who faces a contested primary for the right to take on GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar in the neighboring 27th District, has not said anything publicly about such a switch ahead of Friday’s filing deadline.

Upgrade to support our unique work

Mujica had announced in April that he’d take on Gimenez in the 28th, a heavily Latino constituency in the Miami area. But his already challenging task of flipping this seat, which Donald Trump would have carried 62-37 in 2024, became just about impossible last month after Florida Politics reported that voter registration data showed he’d temporarily left the Democratic Party to become an independent less than a year ago.

State law requires that candidates spend the 365 days before candidate filing opens as a registered member of the party whose primary they want to run in. According to these records, though, Mujica only returned to the Democrats last July.

Mujica’s team responded by denying he’d changed his voter registration to no party affiliation last year, saying he’d fallen victim to a “clerical or administrative error” they were trying to fix. Mujica, though, said Wednesday that he’s now concluded there was no way to avoid “weeks of expensive litigation, uncertainty, and distraction” that would have overshadowed his campaign.

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen: Tulchin Research for Fighting For Michigan (pro-Abdul El-Sayed):

  • Abdul El-Sayed (D): 46, Mike Rogers (R): 41.

  • The release did not mention either of the other two Democrats running in the August primary.

• NV-Gov: GSG for Aaron Ford:

  • Joe Lombardo (R-inc): 45, Aaron Ford (D): 42.

  • The poll was conducted before Nevada’s primary, from May 5-11.

• FL-20 (D): Listener Group for Elijah Manley:

  • Debbie Wasserman Schultz (inc): 39, Elijah Manley: 21, Dale Holness: 15, Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick: 3, Luther Campbell: 2, Maisha Williams: 1.

• MD-06 (D): Hart Research for April McClain Delaney:

  • April McClain Delaney (inc): 52, David Trone: 37.

  • Unreleased May poll: 49-34 Delaney.

State Sen. Mike Gianaris also explains how New York Democrats are moving to counteract the GOP’s new turbocharged gerrymanders. Gianaris tells us why the state’s redistricting system, which was designed to prop up Republicans, is so broken, and how a new constitutional amendment would allow Democrats to enact a new congressional map before 2028. But, he cautions, the vote on that amendment—likely in November of next year—will be a difficult and expensive battle.

Leading Off

CO-08

A deep-pocketed supporter of state Rep. Manny Rutinel in the June 30 Democratic primary for Colorado’s 8th District is turning to an unusual messenger in a new ad: Pope Leo XIV.

“I hear very troubling accounts of algorithms that can block access to healthcare, employment, and security on the basis of data tainted by prejudice and injustice,” the Chicago-born pope is shown saying in a recent speech unveiling the first major teaching of his papacy. In that document, called “Magnifica Humanitas,” or “Magnificent Humanity,” Leo warned of the dangers posed by artificial intelligence.

A narrator then extols Rutinel, saying a law he sponsored “made Colorado the first state with sweeping artificial intelligence regulations.” The voice-over adds that “Manny took on the AI companies—don’t let them defeat him” before the ad closes out with another clip of Leo saying, “Artificial intelligence needs to be disarmed.”

The spot is being aired by You Can Push Back, a super PAC that Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin notes is funded solely by tech billionaire Chris Larsen. According to FEC filings, the PAC has spent just shy of $1 million to help Rutinel. It had previously spent nearly $2 million to help Assemblyman Alex Bores in the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th District.

But You Can Push Back is getting some, well, pushback over its latest commercial. The Colorado Catholic Conference, which is governed by the state’s four bishops, sharply criticized the ad in a post on X.

“The Catholic Church in Colorado and the Vatican do not endorse @MannyRutinel or any political candidate,” the organization wrote. “The Colorado Catholic Conference, as the united voice of the Catholic Bishops of Colorado, objects to the use of Pope Leo XIV’s image and words to imply endorsement of Rutinel.”

The group also attacked Rutinel’s stance on abortion, saying his voting record amounts to “direct participation in the grave evil of abortion and violates Catholic Church teaching.”

Rutinel faces former state Rep. Shannon Bird for the right to take on first-term Republican Rep. Gabe Evans in the swingy 8th District.

Election Recaps

All race calls and estimates of the proportion of the vote that’s been tabulated come from the Associated Press. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race.

Maine

Ranked-choice tabulations will begin on June 12 for any contests where no one wins a majority. The secretary of state’s office anticipates they will be “completed prior to the Juneteenth holiday.”

ME-Sen (D) (52-45 Harris)

Oyster farm owner Graham Platner easily won the Democratic primary to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term representing Maine.

Collins’ allies at Pine Tree Results are already preparing to launch a new ad attacking Platner that features Mainers reacting to various social media posts he wrote, including ones in which he denigrated rural Americans and cops. According to Politico, the new spot is part of a seven-figure buy.

ME-Gov (D & R) (52-45 Harris)

While there are still a significant number of votes to count in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, there’s no question that ranked-choice tabulations will be required to determine the nominees to replace Mills, who cannot seek a third term as governor.

With 81% of the estimated vote in on the Democratic side, Nirav Shah, the state’s former health director, currently leads former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree 27-23. Former state Senate President Troy Jackson and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows are close behind at about 21% each, with businessman Angus King III bringing up the rear with just 8%.

Bellows, Jackson, and Pingree joined together last month to each urge their voters to rank the other two. Neither Shah nor King, by contrast, asked their supporters to rank any other candidates.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Attorney Bobby Charles leads in the Republican primary with 38%, while fitness chain founder Ben Midgley and former health care executive Jonathan Bush are back with about 20% apiece. Former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason is a distant fourth with 11%, while each of the other three candidates has less than 4% of the vote. The AP estimates 72% is tabulated.

The eventual nominees for both parties will face state Sen. Rick Bennett, a longtime Republican who dropped his party affiliation last year to run as an independent. Ranked-choice voting will not be used in the general election for governor or the legislature, though it will be employed again this fall in U.S. Senate and House races.

ME-02 (D) (54-44 Trump)

Ranked-choice voting will also be needed to decide the Democratic nominee for this conservative open seat in northern Maine.

With an estimated 72% in, state Sen. Joe Baldacci, the favorite candidate of national Democrats, leads with 31%. Former congressional staffer Jordan Wood and state Auditor Matt Dunlap are just behind with 29.4% and 28.9%, respectively, while the balance goes to social worker Paige Loud.

The winner will go up against former Gov. Paul LePage, who has no opposition in the Republican primary, in the contest to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.

Nevada

NV-02 (R & D) (56-42 Trump)

Air Force veteran David Flippo appears to have prevailed in the Republican primary for this open seat in northern Nevada, though the Associated Press hasn’t called the race as of Wednesday morning. The Democratic nominee will be former state Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson, who had no trouble winning her primary.

Flippo, who received Trump’s endorsement late in the campaign, leads former state Senate Minority Leader James Settelmeyer 46-35 with an estimated 83% of the vote in. Both Gov. Joe Lombardo and retiring Rep. Mark Amodei supported Settelmeyer over Flippo, who was running his second campaign for the 4th District in the Las Vegas area before switching races in March.

But while Flippo’s intraparty critics seem to have failed to convince enough Republicans to reject the man they called “Vegas Dave,” Benitez-Thompson hopes his weak ties to the area will give her a better chance to score a historic victory in the fall. Benitez-Thompson would be the first Democrat to ever represent the 2nd Congressional District during its more than four decades of existence.

NV-03 (D & R) (50-49 Trump)

Democratic Rep. Susie Lee easily fended off a primary challenge from wealthy cardiologist James Lally, while businessman Marty O’Donnell glided past three opponents on the Republican side.

O’Donnell, who helped compose the soundtracks for several entries in the “Halo” videogame franchise, had both Trump and Lombardo’s support two years after he took a disappointing fourth place in the 2024 primary for this seat. Lee and O’Donnell will now compete for a competitive constituency in the southern Las Vegas area that Lee first won in 2018.

NV-04 (R) (50-48 Harris)

Businessman Cody Whipple scored a landslide win in the three-way Republican primary to face Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in the 4th District, a constituency based in the northern Las Vegas area and rural central Nevada. Trump’s national unpopularity, though, will make it difficult for Whipple to prevail in a seat Trump failed to carry two years ago.

NV-AG (D & R) (51-47 Trump)

Democrat Nicole Cannizzaro and Republican Adriana Guzman Fralick will face off in what will be a closely watched general election to replace Attorney General Aaron Ford, the Democratic nominee to take on Lombardo.

Cannizzaro, who serves as the majority leader of the state Senate, beat state Treasurer Zach Conine by a 61-35 margin. Guzman Fralick, an attorney backed by both Trump and Lombardo, scored an almost identical victory against Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian, who can add this to his long list of defeats.

NV-SoS (R) (51-47 Trump)

Election conspiracy theorist Jim Marchant holds a small lead in the Republican primary to face Democratic Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar, though the AP has not called the race. Aguilar in 2022 narrowly defeated Marchant, a former member of the Assembly who insisted that anyone who had won an election in Nevada since 2006 was “installed by the deep-state cabal.”

With an estimated 87% in, Marchant enjoys a 33-31 advantage over Shirley Folkins-Roberts, a nonprofit co-founder backed by Lombardo. Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is best known for her disastrous 2010 Senate campaign against the late Harry Reid, is in third place with 26%.

North Dakota

ND Ballot (67-31 Trump)

North Dakota voters overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment known as Constitutional Measure 1 that limits future amendments to a single subject, a rule found in many other state constitutions.

South Carolina

A June 23 runoff will take place in any primaries where no candidate earns a majority of the vote.

SC-Sen (R) (58-40 Trump)

Sen. Lindsey Graham avoided a primary runoff against wealthy businessman Mark Lynch, but despite $15 million in spending by the incumbent and allied outside groups, he racked up an unimpressive 57% of the vote. Graham will face Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician who easily won her primary.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

SC-Gov (R & D) (58-40 Trump)

South Carolina’s GOP primary for governor will head to a runoff in two weeks between Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, and state Attorney General Alan Wilson, the son of longtime Rep. Joe Wilson.

With most of the vote counted, Evette led Wilson 29-26, well below the majority needed to avoid a second round. The results, however, spelled the end of not one but two House careers: Rep. Ralph Norman took third with 17%, while Rep. Nancy Mace finished in a humiliating fifth place with just 12% of the vote. Mace immediately endorsed Wilson for the second round.

The winner of the faceoff between Evette and Wilson will go up against Democratic state Rep. Jermaine Johnson, who would be the state’s first Black governor.

SC-01 (D & R) (56-43 Trump)

Both parties will host runoffs on June 23 in the race to succeed Rep. Nancy Mace, whose bid for governor crashed and burned on Tuesday night.

The Democratic contest will feature retired Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore, a victim of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s purge of top military leaders, and attorney Mac Deford, a Coast Guard veteran who narrowly lost the 2024 primary for this district. Lacore led Deford 36-29 and has far outpaced him in fundraising.

The GOP’s second round, meanwhile, will pit Charleston County Councilwoman Jenny Costa Honeycutt against state Rep. Mark Smith. Honeycutt edged past Smith 22-18, while self-funding physician Sam McCown finished just out of the money with 16%. Former Gov. Mark Sanford took fourth with 12% despite dropping out of the race in April.

SC-04 (R) (61-37 Trump)

Republican Rep. William Timmons easily fended off a challenge from businessman David Atchley after surviving his last primary by just a 52-48 margin. In that previous race, Timmons had been dogged by allegations of infidelity, but Atchley was unable to gain similar traction.

Timmons, who this time prevailed 66-20, said during the campaign that this would be his final reelection campaign.

Senate

AL-Sen

Donald Trump’s pick for Alabama’s open U.S. Senate seat is locked in a nasty runoff next week, and his critics are ripping him over what had once looked like a strength: his military service.

“Stolen valor: The most disgusting, despicable lie,” the narrator says at the start of a new ad from Alabama Conservatives, a group supporting Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson. “And breaking reports say that Barry Moore has been caught red-handed.”

The commercial goes on to accuse Moore, a three-term congressman who earned Trump’s backing in January, of having “misrepresented his military record for years, even shamefully pretending to have served in combat.” The audience then hears audio of Moore saying, “I’ve been in those combat boots. I understand what it’s like.”

The ad cites a piece from the far-right site Gateway Pundit alleging that Moore has long identified himself as a retired staff sergeant in the Army National Guard even though his discharge papers show that he was only a cadet when he left the service. The site also claimed that military records say that Moore was never deployed.

The congressman’s campaign responded by providing the Alabama Daily News with discharge papers showing he had received the pay grade of a staff sergeant even though he was still in training.

Moore himself posted a video on Wednesday in which he said, “I was never in combat, and I never claimed to be.” In an X post sharing the video, he also wrote that Hudson was “willing to insult the 39,738 Alabamians who serve in the National Guard and Army Reserves.”

Moore’s team took issue with the suggestion that the candidate’s line about his combat boots, which came from a 2020 ad during his first successful bid for Congress, was dishonest. His campaign told CBS 42 that “members of the National Guard wear combat boots to train.”

Moore, one of the most notorious election deniers in the House, became the GOP frontrunner earlier this year when Trump blessed his bid for the Senate seat that Republican Tommy Tuberville is giving up to run for governor. Moore remained the favorite after he secured 39% of the vote in the first round of the primary on May 19, while Hudson was well behind with 26%.

But Hudson, who edged out Attorney General Steve Marshall for the second spot in the runoff—no one secured the requisite majority needed to win outright—believes he has a shot to defeat Moore next week.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

“You gotta think: 10, 15 million dollars in spend on the congressman, every endorsement under the sun, and 61 percent of the people in the state voted against him,” Hudson remarked of his opponent in comments to Politico last week. “It wasn’t because they didn’t know him, it’s because they didn’t want him.”

Moore’s allies also acknowledge that Hudson, who is campaigning as a conservative outsider, is a potential threat. An affiliate of the hardline Club For Growth welcomed Hudson to the runoff last month with ads blasting him as “a stalking horse for Democrat bigwig donors.”

Pollsters, though, disagree on which man is favored to capture the GOP nomination to represent this dark red state.

Hudson posts a 42-38 advantage in a new survey released Tuesday from Strategy Management, which says it has no client.

The Alabama Poll, which regularly surveys its home state, previously placed Hudson ahead 49-39 shortly after Memorial Day. The GOP firm co/efficient, though, showed Moore prevailing 46-37 in a poll conducted just days later.

MI-Sen

AIPAC’s United Democracy Project is spending more than $2 million on an ad campaign promoting Rep. Haley Stevens ahead of the August Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat, while one of her rivals, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, is getting a nearly $5 million boost.

UDP’s opening spot, as is almost always the case with the group’s ads, does not mention Israel or any related topic. The commercial instead utilizes footage of Barack Obama calling Stevens “a critical part of my team that helped the American auto industry come roaring back,” while the narrator praises her for “fighting back against Trump’s Medicare cuts.”

The Detroit News says that UDP and other Stevens allies have spent or reserved close to $9 million on TV ads through June 15.

But Stevens’ side will soon have company on the airwaves. The New York Times reports that an obscure group called Yes MI Action Committee has booked nearly $5 million to support McMorrow.

Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, the final Democrat in the race, has yet to benefit from major outside spending, though that’s also about to change.

Fighting for Michigan PAC tells Axios it will launch “a multimillion-dollar independent expenditure campaign” to help El-Sayed, who has led in some recent polling, though it did not specify how much it plans to spend. The group’s first ad touts El-Sayed’s local roots, medical background, and the endorsement he earned from Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

Governors

CA-Gov

Former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra will square off against former Fox News host Steve Hilton in November after the Associated Press called the second slot in the general election for the Trump-backed Hilton on Thursday evening.

With approximately 90% of votes tallied, Becerra leads Hilton 28-25, with the third-place Democrat, billionaire investor Tom Steyer, at 23%. Immediately following last week’s primary, Hilton had a 28-25 edge on Becerra, while Steyer was at 20. Later-counted ballots boosted both Democrats and reduced Hilton’s vote-share, but they weren’t enough to catapult Steyer into second place.

WI-Gov

Former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan on Tuesday became the first of the seven Democratic candidates competing for Wisconsin’s open governorship to begin airing TV ads ahead of the state’s August primary.

Brennan, whose opening spot features his children highlighting his time in the business and nonprofit world, as well as his service as Gov. Tony Evers’ “top cabinet official,” tells the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel he’s spending six figures to introduce himself.

But he won’t be the only candidate on TV for long. Brennan faces former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, state Rep. Francesca Hong, former state cabinet member Missy Hughes, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, and state Sen. Kelda Roys in a contest that lacks a frontrunner.

The winner will almost certainly go up against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who faces only minor intraparty opposition.

House

CA-06

The Associated Press projected on Tuesday evening that Rep. Kevin Kiley, a former Republican running as an independent, and former state Sen. Richard Pan, the leading Democrat, would move on to the November election for California’s 6th District.

With more than 90% of votes tallied, Kiley held a 25-23 lead on Pan, with another Republican, Michael Stansfield, at 20. Immediately after election night, however, Kiley and Stansfield occupied the top two slots with 27 and 22 percent, respectively. Thanks in part to a split field of five Democrats, Pan was just behind with 21%.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Those partial results briefly generated fears that Democrats could get locked out of the general election, but as is often the case in California, later-counted ballots saw the Democratic candidates all increase their share of the vote while Kiley and Stansfield both sagged.

Facing a difficult path to reelection under California’s new, Democratic-drawn map, Kiley ditched his GOP affiliation in March and appeared on the ballot without a party preference. However, he continues to caucus with House Republicans and has received financial support from Speaker Mike Johnson.

CA-07

The AP called the second general election slot in California’s 7th District for Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang on Thursday evening, though Vang now actually leads Rep. Doris Matsui 31-29 with most votes counted.

On Friday, the AP called the first slot for Matsui, who at the time held a slender 30-28 lead on Vang, a fellow Democrat who has called for a new generation of more progressive leadership. Matsui’s allies had sought to prop up little-known Republican Zachariah Wooden as a way to block Vang from advancing, but Wooden wound up a distant third with 22% of the vote.

CA-22

Randy Villegas, an outspoken progressive with support from figures like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, has defeated a more moderate fellow Democrat, Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains, and will take on Republican Rep. David Valadao in the fall, the AP projected on Tuesday.

With more than 90% of the estimated vote counted, Valadao leads Villegas 41-32, with Bains, who had the assistance of the DCCC, at 27. While the AP called the first slot for Valadao on election night, though, when he had a wider 45-30 edge on Villegas, his share of the vote has steadily dropped since then. With the two Democrats combining for nearly 60% of the vote, that could spell serious trouble for the GOP in November.

CA-40

California’s 40th District will host an all-Republican general election between two incumbents as the Associated Press projected on Tuesday that Rep. Young Kim would join Rep. Ken Calvert for a second bout in November.

The AP called the first spot for Calvert on election night, when he led Kim 36-22, while Democrat Esther Kim Varet was in third with 16%. Later-counted votes did not appreciably change the standings: With approximately 85% of the vote tallied, Calvert holds a 35-21 advantage over Kim, while Kim Varet only nosed upward to 17%.

While the outcome was disappointing for Democrats on one level, they deliberately drew the Orange County-based 40th District to pull in as many Republican-leaning voters as possible with their redrawn map, allowing them to make surrounding districts bluer.

FL-22

Palm Beach County Mayor Sara Baxter announced Monday she would seek the Republican nomination for Florida’s open 22nd Congressional District.

Baxter, who faced a tough primary challenge in August to keep her seat on the County Commission, will instead now compete in a busy nomination contest for a constituency the GOP just gerrymandered extensively.

The Republican lineup already included three notable names, all of whom can self-fund: crypto businessman Michael Carbonara, university administrator Belinda Keiser, and fast-food franchise owner Casey Askar. The eventual nominee will likely take on businesswoman Pia Dandiya, the only prominent Democrat in the race.

Candidate filing closes on Friday, so the field will be set soon. Donald Trump would have carried the new 22nd 55-44 in 2024, though Joe Biden would have taken it 51-48 four years earlier.

Poll Pile

• CO-Sen (D): Colorado Community Research:

  • John Hickenlooper: 41, Julie Gonzales: 34.

• MN-Sen (D): GQR for Peggy Flanagan:

  • Peggy Flanagan: 55, Angie Craig: 38.

  • Jan.: 49-36 Flanagan.

Leading Off

ME-Gov

Republicans remain as hostile as ever to ranked-choice voting, but they’re almost certainly going to need it to pick a nominee for Maine’s open governorship on Tuesday.

Attorney Bobby Charles, a former drug enforcement officer at the State Department and a frequent Fox News guest, has posted a double-digit advantage over his six primary rivals in every available poll. All of those surveys, though, have found Charles far short of the majority he’d need to make the ranked-choice process irrelevant.

Two of Charles’ opponents are hoping the system will give them the boost they need to pull off a surprise: Real estate developer David Jones and fitness chain founder Ben Midgley have asked their respective supporters to rank the other as their second choice.

Jones has also tried to convince fellow conservatives that they need to embrace ranked-choice voting now so they can get rid of it later.

“I sued Janet Mills over Ranked-Choice Voting, believe me - I’m no fan,” he wrote last week on social media. “I will sign the bill to repeal RCV when it reaches my desk.” Jones, though, added, “Republicans need to actually understand how RCV works and beat the Democrats at their own game.”

The frontrunner, though, would prefer that Republican voters not rank anyone except their first choice.

“I would never advocate that people use ranked choice voting, because I believe that it’s unconstitutional,” Charles told CBS13 on Wednesday. His website even features an unmissable splash screen urging voters to fill in the bubble next to his name for every slot on the ballot.

But Charles’ views haven’t exactly gained traction in the courts. While the Maine Supreme Court issued an advisory opinion in April reaffirming that the state constitution bars RCV from being used in general elections for state-level offices, the process is allowed for primaries. (Races for the U.S. Senate and House use RCV for both primaries and general elections.)

And after Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin was defeated in his bid for reelection by Democrat Jared Golden thanks to RCV in 2018, the federal courts soundly rejected his arguments that the system violates the federal Constitution.

However, a recent poll suggests that many Republicans agree with Charles that they should select only a single candidate.

SurveyUSA, polling for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote, last week showed Charles leading among first-choice votes with 34%, with Jonathan Bush, a former health care executive and the nephew of the late President George H.W. Bush, a distant second at 17%. Two other Republicans, former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason and Midgley, were at 10% apiece, while Jones and the remaining two candidates were stuck in the single digits.

The firm then asked the 466 respondents to rank their second choice, but only 381 did—an 18% drop off.

More and more Republicans checked out as SurveyUSA continued to quiz them about their next three choices, with only 120 expressing an opinion about who they’d rank as their fifth choice—scarcely a quarter of the original group.

And while the pollster stopped at five, Republicans will be able to rank up to nine options: One for each of the active candidates, plus James Libby, who dropped out in April but is still on the ballot, as well as a write-in slot.

SurveyUSA found that Charles remained the dominant frontrunner after simulating the RCV process, though the ultimate sample size was far below the minimum of 300 that The Downballot requires to report on polls.

Democrats will almost certainly also need to jump through the RCV hoop to determine their nominee, but the same poll showed far more of their voters plan to take part in the process. Of the 483 Democratic respondents who selected a first-choice candidate, 346—72%— continued to the fourth and final round.

And SurveyUSA found that, unlike on the GOP side, RCV may well lead to a different Democratic nominee on Tuesday than if candidates were required to secure only a plurality of the vote.

The poll initially showed former state health director Nirav Shah in front with 25%, with former Senate President Troy Jackson and former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree behind with 20% and 19%, respectively. Businessman Angus King III took fourth with 14%, while Secretary of State Shenna Bellows brought up the rear with 11%.

But Jackson, Pingree, and Bellows are all urging their voters to rank the other two, and SurveyUSA found they were listening. Pingree gradually picked up support and narrowly overtook Jackson before defeating Shah 52-48 in the last round.

But there’s plenty of uncertainty going into Tuesday, not least because this will likely be just the second time that Maine has used RCV in a statewide primary. The only prior instance came in the Democratic primary for governor in 2018, which was also the first year ranked-choice ballots were used. Mills ultimately prevailed in the fourth and final round when tabulations were completed eight days after the primary.

The Democrats and Republicans running to succeed Mills, who is now termed out, may be in for a similar wait. Election officials will start RCV tabulations on Friday for any races where no one captures a majority of the vote, and Bellows’ office anticipates being finished by “prior to the Juneteenth holiday” next week.

Be sure to check out our new preview of all of tonight’s top races, covering 20 contests across four states!

To unlock access to our full report—as well as every future primary preview we publish—we encourage you to upgrade to a paid subscription today:

Unlock our preview & support our work

The Downballot

Tuesday's massive primary night

The biggest primary night of the year unfolded on Tuesday—and it’s still not over. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top action and update listeners on where things stand in key contests that remain uncalled. On the docket is California’s race for governor, where…

Listen now

12 days ago · 4 likes · 2 comments · David Nir and David Beard

Election Recaps

Los Angeles, CA Mayor

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass will face City Councilmember Nithya Raman, a fellow Democrat, in the fall general election, the Associated Press projected on Monday evening.

The call came one day after updated vote totals placed Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, ahead of Republican Spencer Pratt in the contest for the crucial second-place spot in the June 2 nonpartisan primary. The newest tallies show Bass remains in front with 34% of the vote, while Raman holds a 29-26 advantage over Pratt.

The AP estimates 93% of the vote has been tabulated so these margins may still shift, but the general election is now set.

Governors

NH-Gov

Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte is already going up with TV ads attacking her likely Democratic opponent, former Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington—though for New Hampshire voters, the spot might induce feelings of deja vu.

Ayotte’s ad begins with a portentous voiceover reading on-screen text that says, “The following is an unedited television ad from Cinde Warmington’s previous Democratic opponent.”

What follows is more than a dozen seconds of footage from a spot run by former Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig attacking Warmington’s work as a lobbyist for the pharmaceutical industry during the Democratic primary in 2024.

“As a lobbyist for Purdue Pharma, Warington was paid to defend OxyContin,” Craig’s narrator intoned. “Then Warmington worked for a disgraced pain clinic that made millions hooking people on opioids. Cindy Warmington works for them. She can’t be our governor.”

Ayotte’s narrator then returns to conclude, “Democrats know the truth. Cindy Warmington is an opioid lobbyist. She’s wrong for New Hampshire.”

The Ayotte version is edited in that it clips several bits from Craig’s ad, which was 30 seconds long, though the sum and substance remain unchanged.

In 2002, Warmington testified before the state legislature that OxyContin was a “miracle drug for many patients” that “has very few side effects” in an effort to thwart legislation cracking down on opioids. (The bill passed and became law.) She also later served as counsel for the troubled chain of pain clinics referenced in the ad, which ultimately collapsed under new ownership last year.

During her previous campaign, Warmington responded with ads arguing that her work on behalf of OxyContin came “long before Purdue Pharma’s lies were known.” But Craig prevailed 48-42 in the primary before losing to Ayotte 54-44 in the general election.

This time around, Warmington is the only Democrat running, and barring an unexpected last-minute entry ahead of Friday’s filing deadline, she’s likely to remain so.

House

FL-09

Republican Dan Green, a Navy veteran and former Defense Department official during the first Trump administration, has entered the race for Florida’s freshly gerrymandered 9th Congressional District.

According to Florida Politics, Green says he plans to self-fund $1 million. Several other Republicans are already running to take on Democratic Rep. Darren Soto in a radically overhauled district that the GOP’s new map made much redder. The filing deadline for House candidates is Friday.

FL-24

State Sen. Shevrin Jones announced a bid on Tuesday for Florida’s 24th District, a safely blue—and heavily Black—constituency in the Miami area that recently became open following Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson’s decision to retire.

Jones, who was first elected to the legislature in 2012, would be the first openly gay person to represent Florida in Congress. His highest-profile opponent in the August Democratic primary is likely Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert, who jumped in last week, though several others are running as well.

Anyone else interested in joining the contest, though, must act quickly, as the candidate filing deadline for House races is Friday.

MA-06

Two influential labor organizations have come down on different sides of the Democratic primary in Massachusetts’ open 6th District: The state branch of AFL-CIO, which represents more than 800 local unions, has endorsed former White House official Dan Koh, while the SEIU State Council, a coalition of four unions, is backing state Rep. Tram Nguyen.

Overall, though, Koh has cleaned up with organized labor, thanks in key part to his close relationship with former U.S. Labor Secretary Marty Walsh. Koh previously served as chief of staff to Walsh when he was Boston’s mayor in the previous decade, then followed him to Washington when he joined Joe Biden’s Cabinet.

Now, the Boston Globe reports, Walsh “has been leaning on local labor leaders” on Koh’s behalf. The effort appears to be paying dividends, as more than 30 unions have flocked to Koh’s banner, far more than any of his rivals.

NY-13

Rep. Adriano Espaillat, who faces a challenge from activist Darializa Avila Chevalier in the June 23 Democratic primary, is airing a new ad highlighting his opponent’s since-deleted tweets attacking prominent Democrats.

As a narrator charges that Avila Chevalier “won’t stand by Kamala Harris,” a censored version of a post reading “I have no nuance to add. Fuck Kamala Harris” is shown on screen. Similar messages appear regarding Joe Biden, whom Avila Chevalier said she would not vote for in 2020. Her final featured tweet attacks “Black men” and “Arab men” for “fetishizing ugly colonizer women.”

A super PAC called United for Progress that’s supporting Espaillat is also airing a similar spot, which Politico says is backed by a “six-figure buy.”

Meanwhile, allies of Avila Chevalier are striking back with a new ad starring Noor Abdalla, who discusses the Trump administration’s efforts to deport her husband, pro-Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil. When she sought help from her congressman, she says, “Espaillat left me in the dark.”

The group airing the ad, American Priorities, recently reported spending $500,000 to help Avila Chevalier—the latest foray in what has become an expensive battle. Latino advocacy groups, led by BOLD America, have deployed more than $2 million on behalf of Espaillat, while American Priorities and the Justice Democrats have combined to spend $1.2 million to boost his challenger, who has the endorsement of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

Obituaries

Bob Packwood

Oregon Sen. Bob Packwood, whose long career as a moderate Republican ended in disgrace in 1995, died on Saturday at the age of 93.

Shortly after he won a fifth term in 1992, the Washington Post reported that Packwood had a history of sexual misconduct targeting female aides. Three years later, the Senate voted to expel Packwood, prompting him to resign.

The Oregonian has much more on Packwood’s life and legacy in its obituary.

Poll Pile

• IA-Sen: Public Policy Polling for the DSCC:

  • Ashley Hinson (R): 46, Josh Turek (D): 46.

• MI-Sen: Tulchin Research for Fighting For Michigan (pro-Abdul El-Sayed):

  • Abdul El-Sayed: 41, Haley Stevens: 23, Mallory McMorrow: 18.

• SD-Sen: Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs:

  • Mike Rounds (R-inc): 43, Brian Bengs (I): 23, Julian Beaudion (D): 18.

  • Rounds (R-inc): 56, Beaudion (D): 31.

  • Rounds (R-inc): 44, Bengs (I): 40.

• MI-04: GBAO for Sean McCann:

  • Sean McCann (D): 48, Bill Huizenga (R-inc): 45.

After a high-profile rescue mission led by Donald Trump crashed and burned in Iowa last week, Trump’s influence over his party will be tested once again in several more primaries on Tuesday.

Trump has endorsed in half a dozen high-profile contests across four states, but two of his picks face especially loud opposition: South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who has long struggled to win over his state’s conservative base; and David Flippo, who is trying to win over skeptical Republicans in northern Nevada after relocating from Las Vegas just months ago.

Below, you’ll find our guide to these primaries, as well as the other top races to watch, in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina. You can also find interactive congressional maps from Dave’s Redistricting App linked to each state’s name just above. (North Dakota has just a single congressional district.)

When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

And please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night, starting at 7 PM ET when polls start to close in South Carolina.

South Carolina

Polls close at 7 PM ET. A June 23 runoff will take place in any primaries where no candidate earns a majority of the vote.

SC-Sen (R) (58-40 Trump)

Sen. Lindsey Graham is about to find out whether Trump’s seal of approval and a huge infusion of outside help are enough to overcome a hardline opponent who says he’s part of the problem in Congress.

Mark Lynch, a wealthy businessman who has self-funded $5 million, has argued that Graham has been anything but loyal to Trump and Republicans during his more than three decades in Congress.

Graham and allies, though, have deployed millions to tout the senator as a loyal MAGA footsoldier and attack Lynch, including over his arrests on drug charges in the 1980s. Trump himself is also no fan of the challenger, whom he’s blasted as “a LUNATIC” who “would be a DISASTER for the Republican Party.”

Polling has been scarce, but one recent data point suggests this race, which features four minor Republicans, could go into overtime. The Citadel, the prominent military academy that regularly polls its home state, found Graham leading Lynch 46-36, leaving him a few points short of the majority necessary to avoid a runoff.

The eventual GOP nominee will likely face pediatrician Annie Andrews, a well-funded Democrat who faces two little-known primary opponents.

SC-Gov (R & D) (58-40 Trump)

Five major Republicans are competing for the two spots in the all-but-certain runoff for the post that GOP Gov. Henry McMaster, the longest-serving governor in the state’s history, is finally termed out of.

Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who is McMaster’s preferred successor, received Trump’s endorsement less than two weeks before Election Day. That nod from MAGA’s master alone could power Evette, who had been closely bunched with her many rivals, into the second round.

Read more

Leading Off

IA-Gov

State Auditor Rob Sand, the Democrats’ nominee in the race for Iowa’s open governorship, is already going on the attack to blast his newly minted Republican opponent as a “part-time Iowan.”

“An economy near the bottom, but number one in rising cancer rates,” begins the narrator of Sand’s new TV spot. “Turning Iowa around will be a full-time job, but Zach Lahn isn’t even a full-time Iowan.”

“Lahn lives, voted, and hit it rich in Kansas as a political insider, working for billionaires and special interests, commuting to Iowa on his private plane,” she continues as viewers see footage of Lahn flying what’s presumably his aircraft. “Lahn says, if elected, he’d ‘be in Iowa as much as humanly possible.’ But you can’t be a full-time Governor if you’re a part-time Iowan.”

Just a few weeks before Tuesday’s primary, the Des Moines Register reported that Lahn, a wealthy investor, had flown from Iowa to Wichita, Kansas, in a plane he owns (and sometimes flies) 37 times since Oct. 1—an average of once every six days.

“I have a blended family, and some of my children are based out of Wichita,” Lahn (pronounced “Lane”) told the paper. “And I’m trying my best to be present for things. And also, we use the plane to shuttle kids back and forth from Iowa as a tool that we use.”

He added that if he wins the race to succeed Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds, who is not seeking reelection, he’d change his approach.

“But if I’m elected governor, it would be a different arrangement, and we’d work it out,” he said. “Because, you know, we’d be in Iowa as much as humanly possible.”

The Kansas Reflector followed up with more details about Lahn’s ties to Wichita, where he helped launch a private K-12 school called Wonder in 2018. The funding for that school was provided by Chase Koch, the son of billionaire Charles Koch, and his wife, Annie. (Lahn, who grew up in Iowa, had previously worked as the Montana state director for Americans for Prosperity, the Koch network’s political arm.)

Chase and Annie Koch later divorced, as did Lahn and his first wife, Lauren. Lahn then married Annie Koch and remained in Kansas, where he voted in elections from 2018 to 2022. Only in October of 2024 did he re-register to vote in Iowa—just early enough to help establish the minimum two years of residency necessary to be eligible to serve as governor under the state Constitution.

Lahn wound up launching a bid for that very office last fall. Though a first-time candidate and political unknown, he boosted his name recognition by blitzing the airwaves, thanks in part to a $2 million loan he made to his campaign last year.

Still, the establishment choice, Rep. Randy Feenstra, continued to look like the frontrunner and released a poll in April showing him with a wide 41-8 lead on the newcomer.

But Lahn played up his role as an outsider and his far-right views on immigration, even touting an endorsement from former Rep. Steve King, an avowed white nationalist whom Feenstra unseated in 2020 after GOP leaders had grown embarrassed by his rhetoric. Lahn, though, was unabashed, saying King “loves the state of Iowa - its heritage, its culture, and its people.”

That message seemed to resonate with Republican voters, prompting Donald Trump to wage a last-minute rescue mission by endorsing Feenstra just days before the primary. It wasn’t enough, as Lahn squeaked by Feenstra in a 38-37 upset.

Feenstra didn’t make much of an issue of Lahn’s Kansas connection, instead running ads about a $1 million investment Lahn had made in a maker of sex toys.

But Sand, a lifelong Iowan who didn’t have a primary to worry about, is betting that his new rival’s extensive ties to the state will be a more potent issue.

David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! With traditional media behemoths falling apart at the seams, lots of independent media outlets have stepped up to fill the gap—and I know that means lots of sites are asking for your support.

There’s no one quite like us, though. Only The Downballot brings you the most important news about the most important elections every single weekday, with no bogus “scandals,” meaningless Beltway fluff, or wishful thinking tainting our newsletter. We just give you what you need, and give it to you straight—no more, no less.

If you appreciate our relentless focus on our mission, then you know that there’s really no replacement for the work we do. So if you haven’t yet, I hope you’ll consider supporting The Downballot by becoming a paid subscriber. Thank you!

Upgrade to support our unique work

The Downballot

Tuesday's massive primary night

The biggest primary night of the year unfolded on Tuesday—and it’s still not over. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top action and update listeners on where things stand in key contests that remain uncalled. On the docket is California’s race for governor, where…

Listen now

12 days ago · 3 likes · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Election Recaps

CA-Gov

The Associated Press projected Friday evening that Democrat Xavier Becerra has advanced out of the June 2 top-two primary in the race for California’s open governorship. However, it remains to be seen whether his general election opponent will be fellow Democrat Tom Steyer or Republican Steve Hilton, though the latter appears more likely.

Becerra, a former state attorney general who later served in Joe Biden’s cabinet as health secretary, leads with 27% as of Sunday morning. Hilton, a former Fox News host and Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, holds a 26-21 edge over Steyer, a billionaire environmentalist, for second place.

Steyer has gained some ground since election night, when Hilton sat it first with 28%, Becerra had 25%, and Steyer 20%. However, with the AP estimating that 72% of the vote has been tabulated, his chances of closing the remaining gap look slim.

CA-06

Democrat Richard Pan is now in second place after a partial vote count on election night showed him in third, though the AP has not called either spot in the general election for California’s open 6th Congressional District.

Updated counts released Friday place Rep. Kevin Kiley, a member of the Republican caucus running as an independent, in first with 25%. Pan, a former state senator, holds a 23-21 lead over Michael Stansfield, a little-known Republican.

Immediately following election night, Kiley was in the top position with 27% while Stansfield was in second at 22% and Pan just behind with 21%. The AP estimates 66% of the vote has been counted in this Sacramento-area constituency.

CA-07

The AP projects veteran Rep. Doris Matsui will advance to the general election for California’s 7th District, but with an estimated 66% of the vote tallied, it has not yet called the race for second place.

Matsui is in front with 30%, while Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, a fellow Democrat, leads Republican Zachariah Wooden 28-23 for second.

IN-SoS

Marine veteran Beau Bayh won the Democratic nomination for Indiana secretary of state on Saturday by defeating Blythe Potter, an Army veteran who was waging a long-shot campaign, 61-39 at the Democratic Party’s convention.

Bayh, the son of former Sen. Evan Bayh, will have to wait two more weeks to learn whether his Republican opponent will be Secretary of State Diego Morales, whose tenure has been defined by numerous bad headlines, or one of the three candidates challenging Morales at the GOP’s upcoming convention.

Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard, who led Indiana’s capital city as a Republican more than a decade ago, is also campaigning as an independent.

Los Angeles, CA Mayor

Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman moved into the all-important second slot in the primary for mayor on Sunday evening, all but ensuring that incumbent Karen Bass will face a fellow Democrat in November.

Raman, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, was in third place behind the leading Republican, former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, after an initial batch of votes was tallied on election night. But subsequent vote drops kept shrinking Pratt’s lead and ultimately put Raman ahead 27.1 to 26.7 when new ballots were added to the count on Sunday. Bass remains in first with 35% of the vote, which the AP estimates is 83% complete.

Given the trend in later-counted ballots, which have been bluer than those tallied earlier, there’s little chance that Pratt can regain his edge, to Bass’ chagrin.

Pratt’s candidacy was unsuccessfully boosted by Bass’ allies in the belief that it would be easier for the unpopular mayor to defeat a Republican in this overwhelmingly liberal city. Now, though, Bass will almost certainly have to defend her record from the left—and may seek to woo Republican voters who will likely lack one of their own to support in the general election.

Senate

MI-Sen

The United Auto Workers, one of the largest and most influential unions in Michigan, on Friday endorsed two Democrats vying for a pair of open statewide offices: former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, who’s running for Senate, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who’s seeking the governorship.

While Benson has long been the heavy favorite over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, El-Sayed is locked in a much tougher three-way battle with Rep. Haley Stevens and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow.

The UAW’s decision to back El-Sayed is particularly notable because Stevens has long touted the extensive support she’s received from organized labor, noting last month that her 12 union endorsements were “triple her closest opponent.”

Governors

FL-Gov

Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings announced on Friday that he was dropping his bid for governor following a diagnosis of prostate cancer. His decision leaves former Rep. David Jolly as the only notable Democrat seeking Florida’s open governorship.

House

UT-03

A super PAC run by former Utah Rep. Chris Stewart has shelled out nearly $900,000 to help Rep. Celeste Maloy ahead of the June 23 GOP primary, where she faces a challenge from far-right state Rep. Phil Lyman. The group’s ads focused on Donald Trump’s endorsement of the congresswoman, who survived her last primary two years ago by just 176 votes following a recount.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): Co/efficient:

  • Barry Moore: 46, Jared Hudson: 37.

  • Co/efficient says the poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”

• ME-Sen: Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Pine Tree Results PAC (pro-Susan Collins):

  • Graham Platner (D): 46, Susan Collins (R-inc): 46.

• SC-Gov (R): The Tyson Group:

  • Alan Wilson: 19, Pamela Evette: 18, Ralph Norman: 15, Rom Reddy: 11, Nancy Mace: 11, undecided: 25.

• SC-Gov (R): co/efficient:

  • Evette: 23, Reddy: 17, Wilson: 16, Norman: 15, Mace: 11.

  • April: Evette: 21, Wilson: 18, Norman: 13, Mace: 12, Reddy: 11.

  • Co/efficient says the poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”

• SC-Gov (R): Starboard Communications:

  • Wilson: 19, Evette: 19, Reddy: 14, Norman: 13, Mace: 11.

  • April: Wilson: 20, Norman: 14, Mace: 13, Evette: 12, Reddy: 10.

• MN-02 (D): GQR for Matt Klein:

  • Matt Little: 26, Matt Klein: 19, Kaela Berg: 16, undecided: 39.

• Washington, D.C. Mayor (D): The Washington Post/George Mason University/Braun Research:

  • Janeese Lewis George: 36, Kenyan McDuffie: 25, other candidates 4% or less, undecided: 25.

  • After simulated ranked choice: Lewis George: 40, McDuffie: 29, undecided/neither: 31.

Leading Off

SC-Sen

Allies of South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham have now spent over $10 million to help him fend off wealthy businessman Mark Lynch in next week’s Republican primary, while the well-funded incumbent has spent months attacking his opponent.

Graham and Lynch, though, may have to keep slugging it out for another two weeks, according to a new poll of this rarely surveyed contest.

The Citadel, the famed Charleston military academy that polls its home state twice a year, finds Graham leading Lynch 46-36, with the remaining 18% saying they’re undecided. Because candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff, four minor Republicans on the ballot may get enough support to force a second round on June 23.

Almost three-quarters of respondents, though, predict the four-term incumbent will win his party’s nomination, and they have reason to be bullish about Graham’s prospects.

While the senator has long had a shaky relationship with his state’s conservative base—Graham won an unimpressive 56% of the vote in his 2014 primary—the most powerful voice in GOP politics remains in his corner.

Last year, Donald Trump endorsed Graham, a one-time presidential primary rival and friend of John McCain who long ago morphed into a MAGA lackey. Trump is also no fan of Lynch, whom he blasted on Truth Social in April as “a LUNATIC” who “would be a DISASTER for the Republican Party.”

Graham and his allies have likewise worked hard to disqualify Lynch. One Graham ad in April attacked the challenger for having suggested that “medical cocaine” should be legal, while a more recent spot highlights Lynch’s arrests on drug charges in the 1980s.

Lynch, who says he changed his life long ago, thinks Republicans should care about Graham’s far more recent political transgressions.

One Lynch ad utilizes footage from the 2016 presidential primary showing Trump calling Graham a “nutjob” and “one of the dumbest human beings I’ve ever seen.”

Lynch, who has loaned his campaign $5 million, has also argued that Graham hasn’t abandoned his pre-Trump habit of occasionally voting across party lines.

Lynch fired off a social media post on Wednesday claiming Graham, along with Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins, are “the only 3 REPUBLICAN SENATORS that voted with Biden more than 50% of the time.” Lynch concluded, “We can dump one of these ladies on Tuesday June 9th!”

And while Lynch has received nowhere near as much outside support as the incumbent, one third-party group is hoping xenophobia will convince Republicans to dump Graham, who has served in Congress since his election to the House in 1994.

Politico reports that a PAC called Courageous Conservatives is spending just over $700,000 on ads charging that Graham “let in illegals by the tens of millions these past 30 years” and allowed statues of Robert E. Lee and John Calhoun to be removed.

“The foreigners Graham let in are now putting up statues to their gods,” the narrator asserts. “Graham has failed South Carolina, our families, and our history.”

The winner will almost certainly go up against pediatrician Annie Andrews, who faces only two underfunded rivals in the Democratic primary.

Andrews will be the underdog in the fall in this conservative state, where Democrats last won a statewide race in 2006, but she’s hoping Trump’s national unpopularity will give her a path.

Graham has also warned that Andrews, who raised $8 million through May 20, could be a threat—especially if Lynch emerges with the GOP nod. Last month, the senator argued to Semafor, “[I]f somehow Lynch got through, it would become one of the most contentious races in the country. I think electability would be a problem for him.”

“They are very clearly behaving as if it really matters which one of them emerges from this primary,” Andrews told the site. “Both of them think they’re the only one who can beat me, and I find that incredibly entertaining.”

For more than two decades, readers have trusted us to deliver candid, factual coverage of elections, and we’ve never wavered from that mission. You may disagree with our conclusions sometimes—in fact, we hope you do!—but we will never give you cause to question our honesty.

If you believe in our cause, then we’d be extremely grateful if you’d consider becoming a paid subscriber. We’re in a position to achieve financial sustainability this year, so it would be awesome if you’d help us get there. We ask supporters for just $7 a month or an even cheaper $60 a year. Thank you so much.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

The Downballot

Tuesday's massive primary night

The biggest primary night of the year unfolded on Tuesday—and it’s still not over. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top action and update listeners on where things stand in key contests that remain uncalled. On the docket is California’s race for governor, where…

Listen now

12 days ago · 2 likes · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Redistricting Roundup

NY Redistricting

Both chambers of New York’s Democratic-dominated legislature on Wednesday approved a constitutional amendment that would allow lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map ahead of the 2028 elections.

Legislators must pass the amendment a second time after they reconvene next year before it can appear on the ballot, likely in November of 2027.

Senate

ME-Sen

In a lengthy article published on Thursday, the New York Times reported that three women who’d had romantic involvements with Graham Platner recounted “volatile and ‘toxic’ relationships that were unsettling and at times emotionally wrenching.”

Platner, the oyster farmer who’s emerged as likely the Democratic nominee in Maine’s Senate race, “could be charming and charismatic” but was “demeaning to women and, in at least one case, even physically threatening,” the paper wrote. He also “drank heavily and was regularly unfaithful.”

Platner’s campaign disputed some of the recollections of the three women, two of whom spoke on the record. His team rejected claims by one woman, Lyndsey Fifield, that Platner had been rough with her physically. Fifield also said that Platner was aware that the death’s head chest tattoo he had covered up last fall was a Nazi Totenkopf, which his campaign denied.

Governors

ME-Gov

Allies of former Senate President Troy Jackson and supporters of former state health director Nirav Shah have both launched negative ads targeting their rivals ahead of next week’s Democratic primary for Maine’s open governorship.

The onslaught comes, though, as a new poll shows a third candidate, former state House Speaker Hannah Pingree, winning in a ranked-choice simulation.

The poll, conducted by SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote, finds Shah leading with 25% of first-choice votes, while Jackson takes 20% and Pingree 19%. The two remaining candidates are further back: businessman Angus King III is at 14%, and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows takes 11%. Another 11% are undecided.

Voters, though, were also asked to rank the remaining candidates. When votes are reallocated accordingly, Pingree surges to the front with a narrow 52-48 win over Shah in a hypothetical fourth and final round. Nearly all prior polling has shown Shah in first, but only in the first round, as few surveys have sought to simulate full ranked-choice tabulations.

Despite topping SurveyUSA’s poll, Pingree has avoided the sort of attacks that Jackson and Shah have been lobbing at one another.

The first volley in that dustup came late last week from the Working Families Party, which is urging voters to rank Jackson, Pingree, and Bellows on their ballots. The WFP has not expressed a preference between the three, who formed a slate just before Memorial Day, but it knows which candidate it doesn’t want to see move forward.

“Shah was appointed by a Republican mega-millionaire in Illinois and failed,” the WFP’s narrator says in a recent ad. “Democrats called his mistakes ‘the height of irresponsibility and negligence.’”

Shah led Illinois’ health department during then-Republican Gov. Bruce Rauner’s administration and held that role when an outbreak of Legionnaires’ disease began at a veterans’ facility in 2015. Both Sens. Dick Durbin and Tammy Duckworth called for Shah’s resignation over failures to contain the disease and for waiting six days to notify the public and the families of those impacted.

Shah, who would go on to hold the same position in Maine during the COVID pandemic, defended his response this week while adding, “Any executive worth their salt has made errors, and then, hopefully has learned from them.”

The WFP’s spot attacking Shah, which the Bangor Daily News reports is backed by a $175,000 buy, does not mention any of the three candidates the party supports, or King.

But it prompted a response from Shah’s backers at 314 Action, which aids candidates with STEM backgrounds, who launched their own ad on Wednesday questioning Jackson’s commitment to abortion rights.

“He earned a 100% rating from Maine Right to Life, voted for legislation that could ban abortions,” the narrator declares. “Jackson said abortions should be illegal, even when the life of the mother is at risk.”

Jackson quickly pushed back on this latest foray from 314, which has spent around $800,000 to help Shah.

Jackson, who said in 2012 that he opposed abortion rights, tweeted on Wednesday that he’d “passed the most progressive abortion law in the country” during his subsequent tenure as Senate president.

Republicans also have a contested primary, and attorney Bobby Charles leads his six rivals in every poll. His status as the frontrunner has also made him a target, both at debates and on the air.

Real estate broker David Jones and fitness chain founder Ben Midgley have both encouraged their backers to rank the other as their second-choice option. Jones said this week that he was refusing to rank Charles at all on his own ballot.

The GOP lineup also features former state Senate Majority Leader Garrett Mason; University of Maine Trustee Owen McCarthy; former Paris Town Selectman Robert Wessels; and Jonathan Bush, a former healthcare executive and nephew of George H.W. Bush.

A thirteenth candidate is also running for governor, but unlike his rivals, he knows he’ll be on the ballot this November.

Election officials announced this week that state Sen. Rick Bennett, a longtime Republican who dropped his party affiliation last year, was the only independent candidate who turned in the necessary 4,000 signatures ahead of the June 1 deadline.

While both parties’ primaries will be conducted via ranked-choice voting, the system will not be used in the general election to replace Democratic Gov. Janet Mills, who cannot seek a third term.

SC-Gov

Republican state Sen. Josh Kimbrell, who’d barely registered in the polls, dropped his bid for South Carolina’s open governorship less than a week before Tuesday’s primary and endorsed Attorney General Alan Wilson instead.

House

CA-34

Rep. Jimmy Gomez will face Angela Gonzales-Torres, a community activist and fellow Democrat, in the general election for California’s safely blue 34th District, the Associated Press projected Wednesday evening.

Gomez, who first won a 2017 special election to represent downtown Los Angeles and nearby areas, seemed on track for his first easy victory in years. But the congressman’s position became more precarious just hours before polls closed on Tuesday when CNN reported that the House Ethics Committee was investigating him for sexual misconduct.

Previously, Gomez’s troubles were strictly electoral in nature. For three cycles in a row, a fellow Democrat, former prosecutor David Kim, had challenged Gomez for reelection and lost just 51-49 in the general election on his second try in 2022. The incumbent fared better in 2024, but when Kim passed on a fourth attempt, it appeared no one else would pose a serious threat.

Still, three Democrats stepped forward to oppose Gomez, including Gonzales-Torres, a former leader of the Historic Highland Park Neighborhood Council. She earned outsized attention in September when she was endorsed by the Justice Democrats, a prominent group that frequently backs left-wing challengers to Democratic incumbents.

Gonzales-Torres, however, still struggled to raise the kind of money necessary to win. It was even possible that Calvin Lee, the lone Republican on the ballot, would instead advance past the top-two primary—an outcome that would have all but guaranteed Gomez victory in a constituency that favored Kamala Harris 73-22 in 2024.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

But Gonzales-Torres easily outpaced Lee and may now face a wounded opponent. The Ethics Committee is reportedly looking into allegations that Gomez was seen kissing a staffer for another representative at a 2023 party hosted by then-Rep. Eric Swalwell, who would later resign in disgrace. The story was first reported by the New York Post.

Gomez responded by saying he had made “personal mistakes outside my marriage that have caused real pain to my wife and family.” The congressman, though, maintained his “actions were consensual in nature and haven’t violated the law or House ethics rules.”

The news broke too late to impact many votes in Tuesday’s primary, and the congressman had no trouble securing a spot in the general election. ​​Gonzales-Torres, though, now has five months to make her case that this is one of several reasons voters need to oust Gomez.

“He has accepted millions from AIPAC,” ​​Gonzales-Torres tweeted Wednesday evening after learning she’d earned a spot in the general election. “He was Eric Swalwell’s campaign chair and is now under investigation too for sexual misconduct. We’re done.”

CO-08

Democratic state Rep. Manny Rutinel is getting a major infusion of help from the political arm of Somos Votantes, a Latino advocacy group that tells Politico it plans to spend $1.5 million ahead of the June 30 primary for Colorado’s competitive 8th District.

Somos PAC’s new ads slam Rutinel’s lone rival, former state Rep. Shannon Bird, for her response to ICE. In one spot, a narrator charges, “This is simple. When Trump sent ICE to terrorize children and hardworking families, Shannon Bird stood with Trump and Republicans to let it happen.”

Text on-screen references legislation to clamp down on ICE that the legislature passed last year, noting that Bird was the only Democrat to vote against it in committee. The ad then goes on to praise Rutinel for standing up to Trump and ICE.

The race for the right to take on Republican Rep. Gabe Evans was already an expensive one even before this new foray. Allies of Bird have spent more than $1.5 million so far, while Rutinel’s backers had deployed more than $1.2 million prior to Somos’ involvement.

FL-22

University administrator Belinda Keiser has joined the Republican primary for Florida’s open 22nd District and says she plans to self-fund $1 million for her bid.

Keiser is a vice chancellor at Keiser University, which was founded in the 1970s by her husband, Arthur Keiser, who is the school’s chancellor. She was also an elector for Donald Trump in 2024.

Keiser joins several other Republicans in seeking this newly gerrymandered district, which is designed to favor the GOP. The lone Democrat running is businesswoman Pia Dandiya, who has already stockpiled more than $1 million for her campaign.

FL-24

Miami-Dade Commissioner Oliver Gilbert said Thursday that he was running to represent Florida’s open and safely Democratic 24th District, while state Sen. Shevrin Jones told his supporters he would be making “an important announcement” on Tuesday. Jones’ decision to set up a fundraising committee with the FEC, though, doesn’t leave much suspense about his plans.

NY-01

New York Republicans are meddling in the June 23 Democratic primary to face GOP Rep. Nick LaLota in New York’s 1st District, a constituency covering the eastern half of Long Island that Donald Trump carried 54-44 in 2024.

Newsday reports the state GOP is sending out mailers to Democratic primary voters that ostensibly attack Lukas Ventouras, a 25-year-old law school student, for wanting to abolish ICE and for supporting “more government-run health care.”

Ventouras had previously attracted little attention ahead of his primary against Army National Guard veteran Chris Gallant, who has raised considerably more money.

DCCC

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee added a third batch of candidates to its Red to Blue list of top contenders on Thursday, though one in particular stands out.

Three of the newcomers recently won primaries in competitive districts: political strategist Denise Powell in Nebraska’s 2nd; former Navy helicopter pilot Rebecca Bennett in New Jersey’s 7th; and San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert in California’s 48th.

The fourth, though, still faces a primary: former NASA chief of staff Bale Dalton, who’s running in Florida’s 7th District against Navy veteran Marialana Kinter and businesswoman Jennifer Adams, the party’s 2024 nominee.

And unlike the contests above, Dalton’s race is much more of a reach for Democrats, as the 7th voted for Donald Trump by a 55-43 margin.

However, the seemingly endless litany of scandals plaguing Republican Rep. Cory Mills may give the party an opening, and the DCCC does not appear to be the only believer. In April, the deep-pocketed House Majority PAC announced it had reserved almost $4 million in fall TV ad time in the Orlando media market, which could be used for this race.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Poll Pile

• MN-Sen: Impact Research for Angie Craig:

  • Angie Craig (D): 51, Michele Tafoya (R): 44.

  • Peggy Flanagan (D): 51, Tafoya (R): 44.

• OK-Sen (R): JMC Analytics and Polling:

  • Kevin Hern: 41, Gary Ty England: 8, Brian Ragain: 4, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 44.

  • JMC says it is “not affiliated with any candidate running for Governor or Senator.”

• CT-Gov (D): Change Research for Impact CT:

  • Ned Lamont (inc): 58, Josh Elliott: 20.

  • Impact CT has not made an endorsement in this race.

• ME-Gov (R): SurveyUSA for the Bangor Daily News and FairVote:

  • Bobby Charles: 34, Jonathan Bush: 17, Garrett Mason: 10, Ben Midgley: 10, Owen McCarthy: 7, David Jones: 2, Robert Wessels: 2.

• OK-Gov (R): JMC:

  • Mike Mazzei: 26, Gentner Drummond: 21, Jake Merrick: 12, Chip Keating: 12, Charles McCall: 8, other candidates 2% or less.

• MA-06: Workbench Strategy for Tram Nguyen:

  • Tram Nguyen: 28, Dan Koh: 18, Beth Andres-Beck: 9, Mariah Lancaster: 8, Jamie Belsito: 7, John Beccia: 6.

• MD-05 (D): Clarity Campaign Labs for Protect Progress (pro-Adrian Boafo):

  • Adrian Boafo: 17, Rushern Baker: 10, Quincy Bareebe: 10, Wala Blegay: 5, Harry Dunn: 5, Arthur Ellis: 2, Harry Jarin: 1, undecided: 43.

• MO-02: FM3 Research for Fred Wellman:

  • Ann Wagner (R-inc): 44, Fred Wellman (D): 41.

• NJ-07: Z to A Research for 314 Action:

  • Rebecca Bennett (D): 47, Tom Kean (R-inc): 43.

  • 314 Action, which supported Tina Shah in Tuesday’s Democratic primary, previously released only the portion of this poll testing Shah against Kean.

• SC-01: Pulse Decision Science for Jenny Costa Honeycutt:

  • Jenny Costa Honeycutt: 20, Mark Smith: 16, Logan Cunningham: 7, Sam McCown: 6, Alex Pelbath: 6, undecided: 37.

• WI-03: Impact Research for Rebecca Cooke:

  • Rebecca Cooke (D): 50, Derrick Van Orden (R-inc): 46.

  • Feb.: 49-48 Cooke.

The Davids also speak with Georgia Democrat Peter Hubbard, who won a spot on the state’s Public Service Commission in a shocking landslide last year. Hubbard explains why races like his have become so salient, particularly as Americans face soaring utility bills and unwelcome data center construction. And with Democrats in position to take a majority on the PSC this fall, he tells us how the commission could achieve a “win-win-win” for Georgians by promoting renewable energy.

Leading Off

FL-20

In a rare and possibly unprecedented move, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has declined to endorse Democratic Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz’s bid for reelection as Black Democrats in South Florida seek to stop her from continuing her career in a heavily Black district.

When asked whether he supported Wasserman Schultz’s choice to run in Florida’s 20th District, Jeffries told reporters at a Tuesday press conference, “Haven’t made a decision as it relates to that particular race.”

“Everybody has a right to run where they see fit, they’ve got to go make their case to the people that they hope to represent moving forward, and that’s what I communicated directly to Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz,” he continued.

Jeffries’ reluctance to back Wasserman Schultz “stunned some of his colleagues,” according to Axios’ Andrew Solender.

“He’s never done that,” one unnamed senior House Democrat told the outlet. “He supports incumbents.”

But the circumstances in this case—brought about by the Florida GOP’s new gerrymander and former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s April resignation—are extremely unusual.

Thanks to an aggressive Republican redraw, Wasserman Schultz was left without an obvious district in which to run. Instead, she chose a non-obvious option: the safely blue 20th District in Broward County, where only 2% of her current constituents now live.

But before she even announced her plans, local Black leaders urged the congresswoman not to run in the 20th, where voting-age Black residents make up a 42% plurality of the electorate and Latinos another 22%.

“With only two remaining Black access congressional districts in Florida, the significance of representation in District 20 cannot be overstated,” the Florida Legislative Black Caucus said in a statement. “Congresswoman Wasserman Schultz’s decision to pursue reelection in this historically Black district, despite explicit requests from the Black community to seek candidacy in a neighboring district, is disheartening.”

Black politicians have now moved beyond words in their efforts to keep Wasserman Schultz from winning. According to the Miami Herald, four candidates, all African American, met earlier this week to discuss the possibility of uniting behind a single standard-bearer with the goal of defeating the longtime congresswoman in the Aug. 18 primary.

However, those four—rapper Luther Campbell, former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, activist Elijah Manley, and Cherfilus-McCormick—have yet to agree on who that standard-bearer should be.

Manley, though, expressed optimism to the Herald, saying, “I think we’re all going to come to some agreement before the end of qualifying,” which is June 12.

Upgrade your subscription to support us!

The Downballot Podcast

Tuesday’s massive primary night

The biggest primary night of the year unfolded on Tuesday—and it’s still not over. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap all the top action and update listeners on where things stand in key contests that remain uncalled. On the docket is California’s race for governor, where Republicans are now looking at a possible lockout, as well as major battles in Iowa, Montana, and South Dakota, plus a whole ton of House races.

The Davids also speak with Georgia Democrat Peter Hubbard, who won a spot on the state’s Public Service Commission in a shocking landslide last year. Hubbard explains why races like his have become so salient, particularly as Americans face soaring utility bills and unwelcome data center construction. And with Democrats in position to take a majority on the PSC this fall, he tells us how the commission could achieve a “win-win-win” for Georgians by promoting renewable energy.

Election Recaps

SD-Gov

Rep. Dusty Johnson conceded South Dakota’s Republican primary for governor on Wednesday morning, setting up the state’s first-ever runoff on July 28. That second round will feature wealthy businessman Toby Doeden, who finished first with 31% of the vote, and Gov. Larry Rhoden, who edged past Johnson 25-23 to secure the runner-up slot.

South Dakota has required runoffs in races for Congress and governor for 40 years, but as Eric Ostermeier explained earlier this year, the law has never been triggered because the threshold for winning outright—just 35%—is so low.

MT-01

Gun safety activist Ryan Busse conceded the Democratic primary for Montana’s open 1st District on Wednesday morning to smokejumper Sam Forstag, who defeated him 37-33.

Forstag will now take on conservative radio host Aaron Flint in the race to replace retiring GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke. While the 1st District, based in the western part of the state, leans decidedly to the right, the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC previously announced it had booked nearly $1.5 million in fall TV ad time to try to flip the seat.

Redistricting Roundup

AL Redistricting

The Supreme Court on Tuesday stayed a recent lower court ruling that found that Alabama’s new congressional boundaries still discriminated against Black voters, allowing Republicans to move forward with a map that eliminates one of the state’s two districts where African Americans have the ability to elect their preferred candidates.

Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, whose majority-Black 2nd District was dismantled by the new map, slammed the Supreme Court’s decision but reiterated his intention to seek reelection.

“The Supreme Court has now confirmed that there is no longer a Voting Rights Act in America, and states are essentially free to discriminate against minority voters with no consequences,” he warned in a statement late on Tuesday night. “This is a dangerous ruling that sets the State and this nation back decades.”

“Too many people fought and sacrificed for me to have the opportunity to serve in Congress for me to just walk away,” he continued. “I will stay in this fight to build a better future for Alabama and a better country.”

Last month, Figures said he would run in the redrawn 2nd District, which saw its Black voting-age population reduced from 49% to 40%. As a consequence of becoming much whiter, the district also became much redder, too, shifting from a 54-45 margin for Kamala Harris to a 57-42 win for Donald Trump.

It also no longer includes the congressman’s hometown of Mobile, which is now in the 1st District. Figures briefly considered running in the 1st, but that district, which would have voted for Trump 67-31, would have been all but impossible for any Democrat to win.

The Supreme Court’s new decision will likely be felt beyond Alabama as well. While the state’s maps had been the subject of long-running litigation under the Voting Rights Act, the federal district court that blocked the latest plan relied on an entirely different legal principle to bar its use: the Constitution’s prohibition on racial gerrymandering.

That doctrine was not at issue in the Supreme Court’s April ruling in Callais v. Louisiana that gutted the VRA. However, as legal commentators—and a furious dissent by Justice Sotomayor joined by her two liberal colleagues—have pointed out, the court’s brief, unsigned order on Tuesday now makes racial gerrymandering claims impossible to prove, too.

Senate

MT-Sen

On her first day as the Democrats’ newly minted nominee for Montana’s open Senate race, Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead reiterated that she wouldn’t drop out to boost independent Seth Bodnar’s campaign against Republican Kurt Alme.

“We said it over and over again: I will not drop out of this race,” Bankhead wrote on social media. “No one approached myself or anyone on staff to bend the knee to anyone.”

“If you preferred me as a candidate but voted for someone else out of the fear that I would drop out, you allowed yourself to be manipulated,” she continued. “I am sending the most heartfelt ‘thank you’ to the people who think critically, who do their own research, who contacted the campaign and asked directly.”

Click to support The Downballot!

House

MD-05

AIPAC’s United Democracy Project affiliate is spending over $1 million on ads praising Del. Adrian Boafo ahead of the packed June 23 Democratic primary for the seat that longtime Rep. Steny Hoyer is not seeking reelection to.

The commercials praise Boafo for supporting legislation “to unmask ICE” and tout his endorsements from Hoyer, Gov. Wes Moore, and Sen. Angela Alsobrooks. The spots, as usual with UDP, do not mention Israel or any related topic.

NY-07, NY-10, NY-13

American Priorities, an organization formed to counter AIPAC’s influence in Democratic primaries, tells the New York Times it plans to spend a total of $2 million to aid the same three congressional candidates New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani is supporting on June 23.

The group is backing Assemblywoman Claire Valdez’s campaign for the open 7th District; former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander’s primary challenge to Rep. Dan Goldman in the 10th; and activist Darializa Avila Chevalier’s bid to deny renomination to Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the 13th. All three constituencies are safely Democratic.

NY-17

Rockland County Legislator Beth Davidson is tying former National Security Council official Cait Conley’s connections to ICE in what appears to be the first negative TV ad from any Democrat ahead of the June 23 primary in New York’s 17th District.

“She’s on the payroll of two AI firms that help Trump and ICE track, target, and detain law-abiding immigrants and U.S. citizens,” Davidson says of her main intraparty opponent. “And she still works for them—even after ICE killed two Americans.”

Politico and The Intercept separately reported in February that Conley consulted for a pair of firms that support the Trump administration’s operations against immigrants. Conley’s team pushed back by saying she was involved in anti-terrorism work and that she had nothing to do with ICE’s activities.

Davidson and Conley are the two leading Democrats vying to take on Rep. Mike Lawler, one of the most vulnerable House Republicans in the country.

Attorneys General

NV-AG

Donald Trump endorsed attorney Adriana Guzman Fralick over Douglas County Commissioner Danny Tarkanian, who may be the most prominent perennial candidate in the country, one week ahead of Tuesday’s Republican primary for Nevada attorney general.

Tarkanian and Guzman Fralick, who already had Gov. Joe Lombardo in her corner, are facing off for the right to succeed Democratic incumbent Aaron Ford, Lombardo’s likely opponent this fall.

Democrats have their own competitive contest between state Treasurer Zach Conine and state Senate Majority Leader Nicole Cannizzaro.

One recent fault line in the Democratic race is the financial support the two candidates have received from affluent donors. Cannizzaro has highlighted the millions that wealthy cryptocurrency executive Jeffrey Berns has contributed to Conine’s PAC, while the treasurer has sought to tie Cannizzaro to the payday lending industry.

Secretaries of State

GA-LG, GA-SoS

State Sen. Josh McLaurin received endorsements this week from U.S. Sens. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff ahead of the June 16 Democratic primary runoff for lieutenant governor of Georgia. McLaurin faces Nabilah Parkes, a fellow state senator he led by a narrow 41-39 spread in the first round on May 19.

Warnock also announced his support for former Judge Penny Brown Reynolds’ campaign for the Democratic nomination for secretary of state. Ossoff has not taken sides in the runoff between Brown Reynolds and Fulton County Commissioner Dana Barrett, whom Reynolds led 42-35 in the primary.

Mayors & County Leaders

Chicago, IL Mayor

State Comptroller Susana Mendoza on Wednesday became the first prominent candidate to announce a campaign against Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, a fellow Democrat who is up for reelection next year.

Mendoza, who unsuccessfully ran for this post in 2019, argued in her kickoff that the incumbent has failed to address what she called the city’s “three major crises,” which she labeled “a financial crisis, a public safety crisis, and a crisis of confidence that they will get better.”

Johnson, who has not yet announced if he’ll seek a second term, has pushed back on his critics, calling 2025 “one of the most transformative years in violence reduction in our city’s history.” He’s also castigated Donald Trump for besieging the city while making the case he’s effectively stood up to the administration’s assault.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

“We have endured quite a bit,” the mayor told WTTW last month. “It has been a barrage of just crisis after crisis that I’ve had to manage, but again, you know, I’ve made it very clear that it’s a lot more effective and easier to lead when you are leading with your values and your convictions.”

But Johnson, a prominent progressive who won a tight race in 2023, has struggled to convince his constituents he’s the right man for this difficult job. A Suffolk University poll conducted in April gave him an underwater 34-44 favorable rating, while other surveys have shown him with even worse scores.

Johnson’s vulnerabilities—in January, Chicago Magazine called him “the weakest mayor in modern memory”—have prompted numerous candidates to consider the race.

Both U.S. Rep. Mike Quigley and Cook County Treasurer Maria Pappas have said they intend to run, though neither has gone as far as Mendoza in actually launching a campaign. Other influential figures like Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, who has over $18 million in the bank for his uncompetitive reelection campaign this year, are also eying the contest.

All candidates will run on one officially nonpartisan primary ballot next February. A runoff would take place in April unless one contender wins a majority of the vote.

Poll Pile

• ME-Sen: Public Policy Polling for Graham Platner:

  • Graham Platner: 49 (D), Susan Collins (R-inc): 45.

• OH-Sen: Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research for Fox News:

  • Sherrod Brown (D): 53, Jon Husted (R-inc): 45.

• CO-Gov (D): PPP for Fighting For Colorado (pro-Phil Weiser):

  • Michael Bennet: 36, Phil Weiser: 30.

• OH-Gov: Beacon and Shaw:

  • Amy Acton (D): 50, Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 49.

Leading Off

IA-Sen

Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek will face Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in what will be a closely watched general election for Iowa’s open U.S. Senate seat.

Turek, who benefited from $10 million in support from VoteVets, defeated state Sen. Zach Wahls 63-37 in Tuesday’s primary. Hinson, whom Donald Trump and Senate Republicans consolidated behind after Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced her retirement last September, fended off former state Sen. Jim Carlin 74-26.

Given Iowa’s rightward march over the last decade-plus, Hinson should have been the favorite to replace Ernst, whose unexpectedly wide victory in 2014 marked the start of a new era of GOP dominance in what had been a longtime swing state.

But even though Trump carried the Hawkeye State in all three of his campaigns—culminating with his 56-43 victory during his final race—2026 is shaping up very differently.

Ad reservations tell one part of the story.

In April, the top GOP super PAC involved in Senate races, the Senate Leadership Fund, announced it had booked $29 million in fall TV time—a sign Republicans were concerned about defending Ernst’s seat.

Democrats, meanwhile, responded by reserving $13 million to aid the party’s eventual nominee—resources that can now help Turek, who won two gold medals and a bronze as a wheelchair basketball player at the Paralympics. They’re also running strong candidates to flip the open governorship and three U.S. House seats.

Both parties have good reason to think Iowa may be in for a course correction. Democratic candidates outperformed Kamala Harris by double digits in each of the six legislative special elections the state hosted last year, including in two races where they flipped Republican-held seats and consequently broke the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate. (The state hasn’t hosted any specials this year.)

Notably, these contests predated Trump’s decision to wage war on Iran, a move that has proved politically disastrous. Hinson herself acknowledged last week that the conflict could harm her and the rest of the GOP this fall.

“I do hope we can get this done by the next couple of weeks,” the congresswoman told voters in comments first shared Tuesday by Politico. “If it drags on beyond that, it’s a political liability for us too, because we’ve lost Iowa soldiers.”

Iowa’s Senate primaries, though, were by no means the only major contests on the single largest primary night of the year. Below is a state-by-state summary of where things stood as of early Wednesday in all of the other major races in Iowa, as well as those in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.

All race calls and estimates of the proportion of the vote that’s been tabulated come from the Associated Press unless otherwise noted. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race.

Election Recaps

California

All candidates running for Congress and for state office compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries; the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 3 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in June by taking a majority of the vote, except in special elections and some officially nonpartisan races.

Many key contests remain uncalled. Vote-counting takes some time thanks to the security measures needed to verify the large number of mail ballots. Counties must certify results between June 26 and July 2.

CA-Gov (58-38 Harris)

California Democrats have almost certainly avoided the top-two lockout they long dreaded, but with only 58% of the estimated vote in, the Associated Press has yet to project which candidates will occupy either of the two general election spots.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News host and Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, leads with 28%, with two Democrats behind him. Former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who went on to serve in Joe Biden’s cabinet, holds a 25-20 lead over billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer.

Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, the other leading Republican, is a distant fourth with 11%.

CA-01 (special) (61-36 Trump)

Republican Assemblyman James Gallagher secured the majority of the vote necessary to avoid a second round of voting on Aug. 4. Gallagher will replace GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa, who died in January, for the final seven months of LaMalfa’s term representing the old and safely Republican version of the 1st Congressional District in northeastern California.

With 55% of the estimated vote tallied, Gallagher leads with 63% of the vote. A pair of Democrats, state Sen. Mike McGuire and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney, trail well behind with about 18% each.

CA-01 (54-42 Harris)

Gallagher, however, will be in for a tough fight against McGuire to hold the new version of the 1st District, a constituency that McGuire and his colleagues in the Democratic-led legislature dramatically overhauled and made much bluer.

Gallagher leads with 47% of the vote as of Wednesday morning, while McGuire holds a 38-13 lead over Denney. Only 50% of the estimated vote has been tabulated, but while the margins may shift, the AP has called the two general election spots for Gallagher and McGuire.

CA-03 (53-43 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Ami Bera will face Republican Robb Tucker, a member of the Nevada County Board of Supervisors, in the general election instead of one of the three Democrats who challenged the incumbent.

This matchup makes Bera, who currently represents a little more than a third of the residents of the new 3rd District (he holds the old 6th District), the favorite to win an eighth term in the Sacramento area.

CA-04 (56-41 Harris)

Rep. Mike Thompson will be in the general election, but the 14-term incumbent is waiting to learn whether his opponent will be a well-funded fellow Democrat or a little-known Republican.

Thompson leads with 37% as of Wednesday morning, while Republican Ray Riehle holds a 24-21 edge over Democrat Eric Jones, a venture capitalist who has raised and self-funded millions. The AP estimates that only 50% of the vote has been tabulated in this constituency, which includes part of California’s wine country and other communities like the college town of Davis.

CA-06 (53-44 Harris)

Only 48% of the estimated vote has been counted in this Sacramento-area seat as of Wednesday morning, and it remains to be seen who will occupy either general election spot.

Rep. Kevin Kiley, a member of the Republican caucus running as an independent, leads with 27%. A little-known Republican named Michael Stansfield holds a slim 22-21 edge over former state Sen. Richard Pan, the leading Democrat. Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho, another Democratic candidate, is in fourth with 11%.

CA-07 (55-42 Harris)

Veteran Rep. Doris Matsui is in front with 31% while Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, her fellow Democrat, holds a 24.9 to 24.1 edge over Republican Zachariah Wooden. The AP estimates only 47% of the vote has been counted, and it has not called either of the general election spots.

CA-11 (82-14 Harris)

State Sen. Scott Wiener and San Francisco Supervisor Connie Chan will compete in an all-Democratic general election to succeed Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, who is retiring after nearly four decades in Congress.

With 50% of the estimated vote in, Wiener leads with 41%. Chan, who has Pelosi’s endorsement, holds a 29-15 advantage over Saikat Chakrabarti, a wealthy political activist.

CA-14 (65-31 Harris)

Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab will be in the general election for the East Bay seat that Democrat Eric Swalwell resigned from in disgrace, but with only 47% of the estimated vote in, the race for second place remains undecided.

Wahab leads with 34% as BART board president Melissa Hernandez, her fellow Democrat, holds a tiny 16.1 to 16.0 edge against Republican Wendy Huang. Dena Maldonado, another Republican, is just behind with 14.8%, followed by wealthy businesswoman Rakhi Israni, a Democrat who is at 11.5%.

All five of these candidates, plus six others, are running in the June 16 special election for the remainder of Swalwell’s term. A runoff would take place on Aug. 18 if no one wins a majority of the vote.

CA-22 (50-48 Trump)

Democrats are waiting to learn which of their two candidates will go up against Republican Rep. David Valadao in the general election for this swingy seat in the Central Valley.

Valadao leads with 45%, while school board trustee Randy Villegas holds a 30-26 edge against Assemblymember Jasmeet Bains. The AP estimates 56% of the vote is in.

CA-32 (61-36 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman will compete against a Republican in the fall race to represent this safely blue seat in the San Fernando Valley rather than go through an expensive general election against a fellow Democrat.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Republican Larry Thompson leads with 37% as of Wednesday morning, while Sherman is outpacing Jake Levine, a former member of the Biden administration, 36-13. The AP, which has called both general election spots, estimates 62% of the vote has been tabulated.

CA-34 (73-22 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Jimmy Gomez had no trouble advancing to the general election in California’s safely blue 34th District on Tuesday, but earlier that same day, CNN reported that the House Ethics Committee is investigating him for sexual misconduct.

The panel is reportedly looking into a New York Post story from April that alleged Gomez, who is married, was seen kissing an aide to another representative at a party in 2023. The congressman’s team told the tabloid the encounter “didn’t happen.”

Gomez, though, seemingly reversed himself in a statement to CNN for its new story, saying, “Years ago, I made personal mistakes outside my marriage that have caused real pain to my wife and family.”

“Although my actions were consensual in nature and haven’t violated the law or House ethics rules,” he continued, “that doesn’t diminish the impact that these mistakes have made on those I care about the most.”

The news broke too late to impact many votes in the top-two primary, but Gomez could be in for a tougher fight in November if a fellow Democrat advances to the general.

With an estimated 59% of the vote tallied, Gomez is in first with 46% as community activist Angela Gonzales-Torres leads Republican Calvin Lee 26-18 for second. The AP has not called the second general election spot in this constituency, which includes Downtown Los Angeles and nearby neighborhoods.

CA-38 (55-42 Harris)

Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, a Democrat who resigned from the House in 2009 to become Barack Obama’s first labor secretary, is now all but assured to return to Congress.

Solis leads with 44%, while Republican Pedro Antonio Casas holds a wide 40-12 advantage over Pico Rivera Councilmember Monica Sanchez, a Democrat who hoped to emerge as the alternative to Solis. An estimated 70% of the vote has been counted in this seat, where no incumbent sought reelection.

CA-40 (55-42 Trump)

Rep. Ken Calvert has lived to fight another day, but he doesn’t yet know if his next battle will be against a Republican colleague or a Democratic challenger.

Calvert is in first with 36%, while fellow GOP Rep. Young Kim holds a 22-16 lead over Democrat Esther Kim Varet, the owner of a chain of art galleries. An estimated 53% of the vote has been tabulated for this constituency, which includes about half of Calvert’s old 41st District in the Inland Empire and about a third of Kim’s 40th District in Orange County.

CA-41 (56-41 Harris)

Rep. Linda Sanchez is on a glide path to win a 13th term representing part of Los Angeles County now that she’ll face a Republican in the fall instead of a fellow Democrat.

That Republican is Mitch Clemmons, a plumbing contractor who leads with 41%. Sanchez enjoys a wide 36-13 advantage over former Assemblymember Hector De La Torre, a fellow Democrat who almost defeated her in 2002. An estimated 67% of the vote has been tabulated for the 41st District, which is home to just under half of the residents of Sanchez’s old 38th District.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

CA-48 (50-47 Harris)

Republican Jim Desmond and Democrat Marni von Wilpert will compete in the general election to succeed GOP Rep. Darrell Issa, who ended his reelection campaign in March rather than fight for a seat that became significantly more Democratic following redistricting.

With an estimated 58% of the vote in, Desmond, a member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors, is in first place with 42%. Von Wilpert, who holds a seat on the San Diego City Council, enjoys a 20-10 advantage over Navy Reserve officer Ammar Campa-Najjar, a fellow Democrat.

Los Angeles Mayor (70-27 Harris)

Democratic Mayor Karen Bass will be in the general election, while the race to take her on remains up in the air.

Bass is in front with 35% in this nonpartisan primary. Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt, the most prominent Republican in the race, holds a 30-22 edge over City Councilmember Nithya Raman, whose 2020 win made her the first councilmember elected with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America. The AP estimates 63% of the vote is reporting.

Orange County Board of Supervisors

Republican Assemblywoman Diane Dixon leads Democratic incumbent Katrina Foley 49-45 with just over 122,000 ballots tabulated as of Wednesday morning in the 5th District of the Board of Supervisors in Orange County.

Dixon and Foley would advance to the Nov. 3 general election unless one of them finishes with a majority after all the ballots are tabulated in this officially nonpartisan race. Foley, who is part of the 3-2 Democratic majority, is defending a constituency in the southern part of the county that backed Kamala Harris just 49-48.

The contest to succeed Supervisor Doug Chaffee, a termed-out Democrat who is often at odds with his party, almost certainly will be settled with a second round.

County Board of Education member Tim Shaw, who is the choice of the local GOP, holds a 34-31 edge over Buena Park Mayor Connor Traut, the leading Democrat, with 70,000 ballots counted in District 4.

Fullerton Mayor Fred Jung, a former Democrat who became an independent last year and has the support of the Lincoln Club, is in third with 19%. The balance goes to La Habra City Councilwoman Rose Espinoza, who ran for the state Assembly in 2022 as a Democrat. Harris prevailed 52-45 here.

Democrats need to hold both seats to keep the historic 1-seat majority they secured four years ago.

Iowa

IA-Gov (R) (56-43 Trump)

Wealthy businessman Zach Lahn narrowly upset Rep. Randy Feenstra to win the GOP nomination for Iowa’s open governor’s race, a victory that came despite Donald Trump’s last-minute intervention on behalf of the congressman.

Feenstra conceded the primary on Tuesday night even before the race was called. As of Wednesday morning, Lahn led 37.8 to 37.0. He’ll go on to face state Auditor Rob Sand, who won the Democratic nod without opposition.

IA-02 (R & D) (54-44 Trump)

Democratic state Rep. Lindsay James will square off against former Republican state Rep. Joe Mitchell in the race for Iowa’s 2nd District, which GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson gave up to run for Senate.

Both James, who is also an ordained Presbyterian pastor, and Mitchell, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, easily won their respective primaries.

Montana

MT-Sen (D) (58-38 Trump)

Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead defeated former state Rep. Reilly Neill in the Democratic primary for Montana’s open Senate race 44-33, but the question now is whether she’ll forge on to the general election or defer to independent Seth Bodnar.

Both Bankhead and Neill repeatedly said they would not drop out to give Bodnar a clear shot in November, an approach advocated by former Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. But a super PAC linked to a Tester ally spent heavily to support Bankhead’s candidacy, while Republicans unsuccessfully sought to boost Neill, likely because she’d expressed the greatest hostility toward Bodnar.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

Republicans, meanwhile, nominated former U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who handily won the GOP nod after collaborating with Sen. Steve Daines to arrange a last-second switcheroo right before the filing deadline. Thanks to their scheming, other serious candidates were unable to enter the race, leaving Alme to steamroll two minor foes.

MT-01 (R & D) (54-43 Trump)

Conservative radio host Aaron Flint easily won the GOP nomination to replace retiring Rep. Ryan Zinke, who joined Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans in supporting Flint. The GOP nominee, though, will need to wait a little longer to learn which Democrat he’ll face in the general election to succeed Zinke, who announced his retirement just two days before the filing deadline in March.

Smokejumper Sam Forstag, a member of an elite smokejumping team that fights wildfires, holds a 37-33 lead over Ryan Busse, a gun manufacturer turned gun safety activist who unsuccessfully ran for governor in 2024, with an estimated 95% of the vote tabulated.

New Jersey

NJ-07 (D) (50-48 Trump)

Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett won the Democratic primary for New Jersey’s competitive 7th District, earning the right to take on Republican Rep. Tom Kean—we think.

Bennett overcame a Republican meddling campaign by dominating the four-person field, defeating her nearest rival, physician Tina Shah, 46-20. But Kean’s inexplicable disappearance—he vanished from public view three months ago—has alarmed fellow Republicans, who already had reason to worry about his reelection chances.

A few hours before polls closed on Tuesday, Kean’s campaign released a new statement attributed to the congressman that was unlikely to calm any nerves.

“Right now I am focused on my recovery and under the advice of healthcare professionals, I will transition from virtual work to in person work within a matter of weeks,” he said. “At that time I will be completely transparent as to the nature of my medical condition.”

NJ-08 (D) (61-37 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Rob Menendez comfortably turned back a primary challenge from Mussab Ali, a former president of the Jersey City Board of Education, and is the heavy favorite to win a third term.

NJ-09 (R) (49-48 Trump)

Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino holds a small 51.4 to 48.6 lead against attorney Tiffany Burress, with an estimated 89% of the vote tabulated in the Republican primary. The AP has not projected a winner in this contest.

The eventual GOP nominee will have a difficult time defeating Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou in New Jersey’s 9th District, a longtime Democratic stronghold that swung hard to the right in 2024 only to quickly zoom back to the left in last year’s race for governor.

NJ-12 (D) (61-37 Harris)

Physician Adam Hamawy, a former Army surgeon who helped save the life of future Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth in 2004, turned back a dozen opponents to secure the Democratic nomination for New Jersey’s open 12th District. He defeated his closest rival, East Brunswick Mayor Brad Cohen, 28-15, and he should have no trouble winning the race to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman in the fall.

New Mexico

NM-Gov (D & R) (52-46 Harris)

Former Interior Secretary Deb Haaland romped to victory in Tuesday’s Democratic primary and will face former Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull in the general election for New Mexico’s open governorship.

Haaland, who would be the first Native American woman to lead any state, dispatched her more moderate opponent, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman, in a 72-28 blowout. Hull, meanwhile, won a tighter race, defeating businessman Doug Turner 47-37.

Haaland will be the favorite to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham in November, as Republicans have not won a statewide race in New Mexico since 2016.

NM-Sen (R), Auditor (R), Treasurer (R) (52-46 Harris)

In the end, New Mexico Republicans will have names on the November ballot in a trio of races for which they’d failed to qualify any candidates at the filing deadline months ago.

Under state law, though, if a write-in earns enough votes in a primary—at least 2,351 votes, or 2% of the number of registered Republicans who cast a ballot in the most recent gubernatorial election—they can earn a spot in the general election.

Republicans managed that in all three races: for U.S. Senate, state auditor, and state treasurer. However, Democratic incumbents in each of these contests, including Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, are still heavy favorites to win another term.

South Dakota

SD-Gov (R) (63-34 Trump)

Wealthy businessman Toby Doeden has secured a spot in South Dakota’s first-ever primary runoff, while the Associated Press has not yet called the race for second place.

Doeden leads with 31% of the vote in the contest for governor, a few points short of the 35% necessary to avoid a second round of voting on July 28. Gov. Larry Rhoden, who was elevated from lieutenant governor to the top job early last year when Kristi Noem resigned for her ill-fated stint in Trump’s cabinet, leads Rep. Dusty Johnson 25-23 for the other runoff spot.

The AP estimates 99% of the vote is tabulated, though Johnson has not conceded as of early Wednesday.

Whoever secures the Republican runoff next month will be the favorite against former state Rep. Dan Ahlers, who won the Democratic nomination without opposition, for a post Republicans have controlled nonstop since the 1978 election.

Redistricting Roundup

NY Redistricting

New York Democrats unveiled a proposed constitutional amendment late on Monday that would allow lawmakers to redraw the state’s congressional map in time for the 2028 elections, should voters ultimately approve it.

Redistricting for both Congress and the state legislature is currently handled by a bipartisan commission, thanks to a previous amendment voters passed by a 57-43 margin in 2014.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

That commission would remain under the new proposal, but it would have only one chance to produce a map, rather than the current two. Most importantly, lawmakers would be able to reject any maps with just a simple majority and substitute their own, essentially rendering the commission merely advisory in nature.

In addition, the new amendment would delete most of the requirements that maps were subject to under the current setup. These include mandates to create compact districts and minimize the splitting of counties and cities, and, most importantly, a ban on partisan gerrymandering. The amendment also explicitly permits mid-decade redraws.

Before it can become law, the amendment must pass the legislature twice, both before and after an election. Politico reported on Monday that lawmakers plan to hold a vote before their current session concludes on Thursday. A second vote could then be held early next year, with the amendment appearing on the ballot in November of 2027.

Democrats currently hold 19 of the state’s congressional seats versus seven for Republicans, but a new map could be much more favorable. One hypothetical plan drawn by The Downballot’s Stephen Wolf would be likely to elect 23 Democrats and just three Republicans, giving Democrats a net gain of four seats.

Governors

MN-Gov

House Speaker Lisa DeMuth submitted paperwork just before Tuesday’s deadline to run in Minnesota’s August primary despite originally saying she’d drop out if she failed to win the GOP’s endorsement at the party’s convention last weekend.

DeMuth will face two notable opponents: businessman Kendall Qualls, who defeated DeMuth after a marathon 10-round vote at the convention, and pillow salesman/conspiracy theorist Mike Lindell.

She issued her about-face after complaining about problems with the electronic voting system used at the convention—a complaint that received some support from state party chair Alex Plechash.

In a statement released Monday, Plechash acknowledged the “confusion and concern” over a disruption in the voting that led to an extended delay. As a consequence, he said that “any gubernatorial candidate who agreed to abide by the endorsement”—that is, quite the race if they didn’t receive it—”should not be treated as bound by that pledge.”

Still, he said the GOP “stands behind” its endorsement of Qualls, pledging he would “receive the full support, resources, and organizational backing of the state party.”

Democrats, meanwhile, have rallied around Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who faces minimal opposition for her party’s nod.

House

ME-02

In an unusual move, state Sen. Joe Baldacci is teaming up with the DCCC and the House Majority PAC to run a joint ad attacking state Auditor Matt Dunlap, one of his rivals in next week’s Democratic primary for Maine’s 2nd District. Punchbowl News, which first reported the commercial, says the trio is spending $157,000 to air the message.

“Dunlap’s anti-abortion voting record earned him a 100% rating from Maine Right to Life,” the narrator says of the state auditor. That score came in 2003 after Dunlap, who was a member of the legislature at the time, supported a bill to require doctors to inform women seeking abortions about “risks” and “alternatives.”

The ad continues, “Now, a mystery group tied to Republicans is meddling with $300,000 to elect Dunlap. Vote for a Democrat we can trust with a 100% voting record from Planned Parenthood, Joe Baldacci.”

As the spot alludes, a shadowy outside group called Real Change PAC recently began airing ads declaring that Baldacci “stands with Trump.” Baldacci, however, quickly accused the outfit, which also ran ads in Tuesday’s primary for New Jersey’s 7th District (see our NJ-07 item above), of meddling in the Maine contest as well.

Axios’ Andrew Solender subsequently discovered that Real Change is connected to a firm run by Josh Holmes, a prominent Republican who once served as chief of staff to Mitch McConnell.

Baldacci faces Dunlap and two other Democrats, former congressional staffer Jordan Wood and social worker Paige Loud, on a ranked-choice ballot. The winner will face former Gov. Paul LePage, who has no opposition in his Republican primary, in the general election to replace retiring Rep. Jared Golden, a centrist Democrat who is not seeking reelection.

NV-02

The far-right Club for Growth has given its backing to Air Force veteran David Flippo for Nevada’s open 2nd Congressional District and says it will spend $400,000 on a new ad campaign touting Donald Trump’s recent endorsement of Flippo.

Flippo’s main opponent in next week’s GOP primary is former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, who has the support of both retiring Rep. Mark Amodei and Gov. Joe Lombardo.

WI-01

Iron worker Randy Bryce, who’d raised very little in his second bid for Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, ended his campaign when he failed to submit signatures to election officials by Monday’s filing deadline.

Bryce sought the same seat once before in 2018 and raised huge sums by virtue of running against then-Speaker Paul Ryan. But after Ryan opted against seeking reelection, Bryce struggled to gain traction against his replacement, Republican Bryan Steil, and lost 55-42.

Several other Democrats, however, are hoping to take on Steil, and the deep-pocketed House Majority PAC has reserved $2 million in fall TV ad time for the Milwaukee media market that could be used to target him.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): The Alabama Poll:

  • Jared Hudson: 49, Barry Moore: 39.

• MI-Sen (D): Lake Research Partners for Abdul El-Sayed:

  • Abdul El-Sayed: 34, Haley Stevens: 31, Mallory McMorrow: 19.

• MA-Gov (R): Suffolk University:

  • Michael Minogue: 45, Brian Shortsleeve: 13.

• ME-02: Pan Atlantic Research for Joe Baldacci:

  • Joe Baldacci (D): 49, Paul LePage (R): 41.

  • The release did not include general election numbers testing the other Democrats running in next week’s primary.

Leading Off

House

More than half a dozen House Democrats in California will face the first test of their popularity at the ballot box on Tuesday night in the face of widespread calls for new blood following the party’s defeat at the polls in 2024.

The Golden State’s top-two primary rules make it unlikely that any of these incumbents will lose on Tuesday. Many, though, will learn whether they can expect a serious fight for reelection in November from fellow Democrats, while others are hoping for easier battles against Republican opponents.

One Democrat who will be keeping a close eye on the race for second place is Rep. Ami Bera, who is running in a new 3rd District around Sacramento that includes only about one-third of his current constituents in the old 6th. Bera faces a trio of intraparty opponents who’ve argued the district deserves a more progressive representative who actually lives within its new borders.

Next door in the 4th District, Rep. Mike Thompson is trying to fend off wealthy venture capitalist ​​Eric Jones, who has put the 75-year-old congressman’s age front and center. A new commercial for an outside group backing Jones, 35, compares Thompson to a molding and forgotten jar of mayo in the fridge that may have “seemed fresh in the 90s” but is now “past his expiration date.”

And right nearby in the 7th District, Rep. Doris Matsui, 81, faces a tough battle of her own against Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, an opponent four decades her junior. Matsui’s allies, though, are boosting a little-known Republican in the hopes of knocking Vang out of the second general election spot.

Similar battles are playing out in Southern California. Age and longevity are also factors in Rep. Brad Sherman’s race against former Biden administration official Jake Levine, who is almost three decades younger than the 71-year-old congressman, in the 32nd District in the San Fernando Valley.

Rep. Linda Sanchez’s top worry, by contrast, may be that not enough voters know her in the new 41st District in the southern part of Los Angeles County. Sanchez, whose old 38th District was home to less than half of the residents in the revamped constituency she’s now seeking, faces a rematch against former Assemblymember Hector De La Torre, whom she beat all the way back in 2002 during her first campaign for Congress.

These five aren’t the only potentially endangered House Democrats in the Golden State. Reps. Ro Khanna, Jimmy Gomez, and Maxine Waters all appear safer than their colleagues above, but they’ll also be watching Tuesday’s results for clues about whether any intraparty opponents could pose a threat to them in the fall.

With behemoth California on the docket along with five other states, Tuesday’s primaries are utterly massive. To help you follow along with all the action, we’ve put together our latest preview of all the key races—more than 30 in all. Settle in with a jumbo iced tea at your elbow as you dive in!

To unlock access to this entire post, plus every other primary preview we’ll publish this year—and there are many more to come!—all you have to do is upgrade to a paid subscription. It’s just $7 a month or a steeply discounted $60 a year. Thank you!

Subscribe to unlock our primary preview

Senate

MN-Sen

A super PAC supporting Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig’s bid for Senate has released the first public poll of the Democratic primary finding the congresswoman ahead while also launching a new ad campaign targeting her top rival for the nomination

The survey, conducted by Global Strategy Group for North Star Dawn, gives Craig a slender 43-42 edge over Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who’d led in every previous poll of the race. The only one conducted recently, though, was a late April poll commissioned by Flanagan’s backers at the Democratic Lieutenant Governor’s Association, which put her up 44-33.

It’s the DLGA that’s the focus of North Star Dawn’s new attack ad, which charges that the organization—which Flanagan once led—”raised a staggering amount from corporate special interests: Big Pharma, oil and gas, tobacco” and “even accepted a donation from the private prison running ICE detention centers and separating families.”

Last month, the DLGA launched what it called a $2 million ad campaign hammering Craig for supporting the Laken Riley Act, a vote she later apologized for. So far, though, the group has reported spending under $130,000, while North Star Dawn has disclosed $300,000 in expenditures for its new anti-Flanagan effort.

Earlier this year in Illinois, Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi similarly sought to thwart Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s Senate ambitions by airing ads critical of the DLGA. Those attacks, however, failed to gain much traction as Stratton defeated Krishnamoorthi 40-33.

Governors

AK-Gov

Former Alaska Gov. Bill Walker launched a bid to reclaim his old post right before Monday’s filing deadline, while Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom quit the race after campaigning for the job for over a year.

Walker, a former Republican, ran as an independent in 2014 and unseated GOP incumbent Sean Parnell after the Democratic nominee, Byron Mallott, dropped out and became Walker’s running mate.

Four years later, though, he faced a tough reelection campaign against Republican Mike Dunleavy—even before former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich entered the race, a move that cost the governor the chance to benefit from institutional Democratic support.

Walker wound up dropping out a week and a half before Election Day and endorsed Begich following Mallott’s resignation in the face of a sexual harassment scandal, but the late shakeup wasn’t enough to stop Dunleavy from winning.

Following his exit, Walker waged a comeback bid in 2022 after the state implemented a new electoral system but fell far short. In the ranked-choice general election, Dunleavy won outright with 50.3% of the vote, while Democrat Les Gara took 24% and Walker finished third with just 21%.

Dunleavy is now set to become the first Alaska governor to leave office because of term limits since 2002, prompting a massive field of candidates from all parties—and no party at all—to join the race to succeed him.

Dahlstrom, though, is no longer among that group. Elected on a ticket with Dunleavy in 2022, Dahlstrom sought to unseat Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola two years later. However, after finishing third in the top-four primary, she withdrew from the race in the hopes of boosting fellow Republican Nick Begich, who went on to narrowly oust Peltola.

Undeterred, Dahlstrom became one of the first major candidates to kick off a bid for governor in May of last year, but she pulled the plug on Monday without much in the way of explanation. As Alaska Public Media noted, though, her initial fundraising haul was feeble.

KS-Gov

Former Gov. Jeff Colyer abandoned his bid to reclaim his old job by failing to file paperwork by Monday’s deadline, a day that also saw other candidates make last-minute moves in the race to succeed term-limited Democrat Laura Kelly.

Colyer, who’d been elected lieutenant governor on a ticket with Sam Brownback, was elevated to the top job in early 2018 when the extremely unpopular Brownback resigned to take a post in the Trump administration. The new governor, though, almost immediately faced a difficult primary.

Colyer ultimately lost a seven-person nomination contest to Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, by a 40.6 to 40.5 margin—a difference of just 343 votes. Colyer then watched from the sidelines as Kelly scored an upset victory over the disastrous Kobach in the general election.

Three years later, Colyer launched a comeback bid but dropped out after just a few months on the trail, citing a diagnosis of prostate cancer. This time around, he faced a large field of rivals for the Republican nod. Once again, though, he wound up on the wrong side of a Trump endorsement, as MAGA’s master just gave his backing to state Senate President Ty Masterson last week.

Meanwhile, one minor Republican, businesswoman Joy Eakins, also dropped her campaign for governor and instead signed on as the running mate for financial services executive Philip Sarnecki.

There was also late action on the Democratic side, as Overland Park Mayor Curt Skoog jumped into the Aug. 4 primary on Monday.

Skoog was first elected to the City Council in Overland Park, a populous suburb of Kansas City that’s the second-largest city in the state, as a Republican in 2005. However, he switched parties ahead of his successful bid for mayor in 2021 and won reelection four years later.

Now, though, he joins a race that features two other Democrats who’ve both been on the campaign trail for nearly a year: state Sens. Cindy Holscher and Ethan Corson. There’s been no recent polling, but Corson sports an endorsement from term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly and also led Holscher in fundraising when disclosures were last filed in January.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

House

UT-01

State Sen. Nate Blouin’s efforts to convince a pair of his rivals to drop out of the Democratic primary for Utah’s 1st District and unite behind his candidacy ran aground on Monday after neither of his opponents was persuaded by a new poll he commissioned.

Last week, Blouin, an outspoken progressive, announced that he was conducting a survey and was “calling on all but the leading progressive candidate in this upcoming poll to drop out and consolidate against Ben McAdams,” a moderate former congressman.

Blouin told the Salt Lake Tribune that he had sought to reach a private agreement with two other left-leaning candidates, Michael Farrell and Liban Mohamed, but decided to go public because of “foot-dragging from the other campaigns,” as the paper put it.

Both Mohamed and Farrell reacted with hostility at the time, and they emphasized their intention to stay in the race after Blouin made his poll public on Monday.

The survey, conducted by Upswing, found McAdams leading with 37%, while Blouin took 27, Mohamed 13, and Farrel 7. The remainder were undecided—though Mohamed and Farrell were not.

“I’m not surprised that Nate came out second in a poll funded by him with questions he drafted,” Farrell told Bryan Schott of Utah Political Watch. “People know Nate, and his support is capped around 25-27%.”

Mohamed, who edged out McAdams 51-49 at a late April convention to earn the Democratic Party’s endorsement, was similarly defiant. In a statement, he said, “I will not abandon the thousands of people who organized, participated, and earned that victory.”

McAdams, meanwhile, is getting the first major infusion of outside support in the race. Punchbowl reports that the political arm of the centrist New Democrat Coalition is spending $1 million on an ad campaign to boost the ex-congressman ahead of the June 23 primary.

The group’s new spot praises McAdams for, among other things, voting to impeach Donald Trump during his lone term in Congress. A recent ad from McAdams’ own campaign emphasized the same vote.

Poll Pile

• CA-Gov (top-two): SurveyUSA for KGTV-TV and the San Diego Union-Tribune:

  • Tom Steyer (D): 20, Steve Hilton (R): 20, Xavier Becerra (D): 17, Chad Bianco (R): 11, Katie Porter (D): 7, Matt Mahan (D): 6, other candidates 4% or less.

  • Early May: Hilton (R): 20, Steyer (D): 18, Bianco (R): 12, Becerra (D): 10, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 7.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): University of Southern California/California State University Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona:

  • Becerra (D): 29, Hilton (R): 23, Steyer (D): 18, Bianco (R): 11, Porter (D): 8, other candidates 4% or less.

• CA-Gov: USC/CSU Long Beach/Cal Poly Pomona:

  • Hilton (R): 34, Bianco (R): 15.

  • Steyer (D): 55, Hilton (R): 34.

  • Becerra (D): 58, Hilton (R): 35.

  • Becerra (D): 37, Steyer (D): 26.

  • Becerra (D): 42, Porter (D): 22.

  • Steyer (D): 31, Porter (D): 30.

• PA-Gov: Bravo Group for PennLive:

  • Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 53, Stacey Garrity (R): 29.

• NJ-07 (D): Tavern Research:

  • Rebecca Bennett: 32, Tina Shah: 16, Brian Varela: 15, Michael Roth: 12.

• WY-AL (R): Fabrizio, Lee & Associates for Chuck Gray:

  • Chuck Gray: 21, Reid Rasner: 14, Steve Friess: 10, Jillian Balow: 8, Bo Biteman: 7, Kevin Christensen: 5, other candidates 1% or less, undecided: 33.

Tuesday is the biggest night of the 2026 primary season, with six states​​—including the nation’s largest—on tap. Below, you’ll find our guide to the top races to watch from coast to coast.

The first round of the race to succeed California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who cannot seek a third term, has attracted by far the most attention. While Democrats have long feared that the state’s unusual top-two primary system might allow two Republicans to lock them out of the general election, recent polls show that Democrats could end up securing both slots in November’s showdown.

This will also be the first time the Golden State uses its new Democratic-drawn congressional map, which voters approved last November to counter the Republican gerrymandering drive that began in Texas.

Thanks to the revised boundaries, many incumbents are running in constituencies that feature significantly altered territory—and in some cases a different number—compared to the districts they were last elected to serve.

And as per usual, it may be a while before California’s contests are fully decided. Vote-counting takes some time thanks to the security measures needed to verify the large number of mail ballots officials receive. Newsom signed new laws last year aimed at speeding up the process, but many races will still be in doubt on Wednesday morning and potentially longer.

But California doesn’t have the night to itself. Voters in Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota will also pick nominees in a broad array of important races, though they’ll all use traditional partisan primaries.

When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each contest, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public.

You can also find interactive congressional district maps from Dave’s Redistricting App for California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, and New Mexico linked to each state’s name just above. (The entire state of South Dakota is home to a single at-large district.)

The first polls close at 8 PM ET in New Jersey and the portion of South Dakota located in the Central Time Zone.

And please join The Downballot on our private Discord server to discuss the election returns with fellow community members as they come in on Tuesday night!

California

Polls close at 11 PM ET / 8 PM local time.

All candidates running for Congress and for state office compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries; the two contenders with the most votes, regardless of party, advance to the Nov. 3 general election. Candidates cannot win outright in June by taking a majority of the vote, except in special elections and some officially nonpartisan elections.

CA-Gov (58-38 Harris)

After a race defined by extreme volatility, two Democrats and one Republican appear to have a strong shot to secure one of the two spots in the general election for California’s open governorship.

The frontrunners are former state Attorney General Xavier Becerra, who went on to serve as secretary of Health and Human Services under Joe Biden; billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, who unsuccessfully sought the Democratic nomination for president in 2020; and former Fox News host Steve Hilton, Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate.

Becerra resisted calls to drop out of the race over the winter as Democrats feared that their large field would allow two Republicans—Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco—to move on to November and thereby automatically flip the governor’s office. (California does not allow write-ins in the general election.)

But everything changed in April, starting with Trump’s decision to get behind Hilton, a move that swiftly deflated Bianco’s bid. Just a week later, Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had been one of the leading candidates, ended his campaign and resigned from Congress after multiple women accused him of sexual assault.

Becerra, who would be the first Latino to lead California since the 19th century, rapidly catapulted from also-ran to frontrunner, and his new status quickly made him a target.

His most formidable foe is Steyer, who has spent an eye-popping $200 million on advertising. Steyer, though, has also been on the receiving end of attack ads from a group funded by real estate developers, building trade unions, and the utility giant PG&E.

An average of all public polls compiled by FiftyPlusOne shows Hilton in first with 22.2% as Becerra edges out Steyer 21.6 to 19.4 for the crucial second-place spot. Bianco is in fourth place with 12%, with two Democrats a bit further back: former Rep. Katie Porter, a prominent progressive who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in 2024; and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a centrist candidate who has received extensive support from groups funded by the tech sector.

Two more Democrats, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, have earned minimal support in the polls.

CA-01 (special) (61-36 Trump)

Races in both the old and new versions of the 1st Congressional District in northeastern California are on Tuesday’s ballot, but the dynamics are starkly different in both contests.

After Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa died in January, GOP Assemblymember James Gallagher became the favorite to win the five-person special election for the remainder of the late congressman’s term.

Trump, who has endorsed Gallagher, and other GOP leaders are hoping the assemblyman can win the majority of the vote he needs to win outright and give Republicans another vote in the narrowly divided House.

A pair of Democrats seeking a full term in the new-look 1st (more on that primary just below) are also running in the special for the previous iteration, which is much more conservative. State Sen. Mike McGuire and agriculture consultant Audrey Denney are hoping to at least force Gallagher into a second round of voting on Aug. 4. One little-known Republican and an independent are also on the ballot.

CA-01 (54-42 Harris)

Gallagher is the only Republican running for a full term representing the new 1st District, but while he’s likely to advance to the general, he’ll be the underdog in the fall in a constituency that Democrats dramatically overhauled and made much bluer.

Read more

Leading Off

LA Redistricting

Republican Gov. Jeff Landry signed a new congressional gerrymander on Friday after both chambers of Louisiana’s Republican-dominated legislature passed a map that transforms Democratic Rep. Cleo Fields’ predominantly Black 6th District into a majority-white and safely Republican constituency.

Following similar moves in Alabama and Tennessee, Fields’ seat is now the third majority-Black constituency that Republicans have sought to eviscerate following the Supreme Court’s late April decision to gut the Voting Rights Act in Louisiana v. Callais.

According to data from the Redistricting Data Hub uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App, Donald Trump would have won at least 65% of the vote in five of Louisiana’s six congressional districts in his most recent election. The lone exception is Democratic Rep. Troy Carter’s 2nd District in the New Orleans area, which will once again be the Pelican State’s only majority-Black and safely Democratic district.

Fields, who was elected to Congress in 2024 after a 28-year absence, has not yet announced what he’ll do now that mid-decade redistricting has made it all but impossible for him to win again.

In 1992, Fields was first elected to represent what was then numbered the 4th District after the legislature, which at the time was dominated by conservative Democrats, created a second majority-Black district to accompany five predominantly white seats. (The state lost its seventh House seat after the 2010 census.)

That victory made Fields, who was elected two years after Democrat Bill Jefferson won the 2nd District, the second Black person to represent the state since Reconstruction.

But federal courts ruled that Fields’ sprawling district, a skinny Z-shaped constituency that hugged the state’s northeastern borders with Arkansas and Mississippi, was an impermissible racial gerrymander and ordered it to be redrawn.

In response, the 4th was dramatically refashioned, linking Fields’ base in Baton Rouge with Shreveport in the northwestern corner of the state. He easily won that district, too, but he wouldn’t get to represent it for long.

The courts again determined it was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, prompting the state to replace it in 1996 with a heavily white district that resembled the one it had used in the 1980s.

Fields, who had badly lost his campaign for governor against Republican Mike Foster the previous year, understood he had little chance to win the latest iteration of his district. The congressman did not seek reelection, though he quickly returned to elected office in 1997 by winning a seat in the state Senate.

Louisiana, which is about one-third Black, would continue to have just one majority Black district for almost another three decades. Only in 2024 did things finally change, after a federal court ruled that the state was obligated to draw a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidate.

That candidate turned out to be Fields, who had left the state Senate following the 2007 elections because of term limits but returned in 2019. And the district he sought, now numbered the 6th, bore a close relationship with the one he’d won in 1994.

Once again, though, that configuration proved to be its undoing. A group of voters, unhappy with the new district, challenged it as a racial gerrymander in a separate lawsuit.

The Republican-appointed supermajority on the U.S. Supreme Court sided with them in Callais, striking down the 6th District in a decision that eviscerated the Voting Rights Act and turbocharged the GOP’s drive to gerrymander predominantly Black congressional districts out of existence.

Landry immediately sought to cancel the state’s House primaries even though 45,000 votes had already been cast, and Republican lawmakers quickly set about drawing up a new map to erase at least one of the state’s two Black districts.

While there was initially talk that GOP lawmakers could target both Carter and Fields, or even go after Carter while leaving Fields alone, they instead approved boundaries similar to those used from 2012 through 2022.

But that’s not the only way Republicans have turned back the clock. Landry signed a bill last month requiring all House elections this year to use the all-party primary system the state employed in most elections from 1975 onward.

Under that method, all candidates from all parties will run on a single ballot on Nov. 3, with the top two vote-getters advancing to a Dec. 2 runoff if no one wins a majority. Candidates have until Aug. 7 to file. This change does not impact the race for U.S. Senate, where both parties will hold primary runoffs on June 27.

But while it’s far too early to know who will replace Fields in the 6th District, which once again incorporates largely white areas in and around Baton Rouge, there’s little question that Louisiana’s next congressional delegation will include five white Republicans and just one Black Democrat.

Fields drew attention to this imbalance—Louisiana is a third Black—when he appeared before the legislature last month alongside Carter, Jefferson, and former Rep. Cedric Richmond.

“Since Reconstruction, Louisiana ​has elected four African Americans to Congress,” Fields told lawmakers, “and you’re looking at all of them.”

One of the things we’ve long been proudest of at The Downballot is our ability to set aside our personal preferences when we analyze elections.

Far too many pundits out there can’t separate the two. They puff up the chances of candidates they like and pooh-pooh the prospects of candidates they dislike. And when the former succeeds, it’s because they embraced that particular commentator’s preferred vision. When the latter fails, it’s because they didn’t.

If you’re as sick of the hot takes as we are, then we hope you’ll consider supporting our work. We always play it straight, no matter how unfashionable that might be.

Support our "No Hot Take Zone"

Redistricting Roundup

WI Redistricting

The Wisconsin Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear an appeal of a lawsuit challenging the state’s congressional map as an incumbent-protection gerrymander, which a lower court dismissed in April. The justices, though, rejected a request by plaintiffs to expedite the hearing, so any decision almost certainly won’t impact this year’s elections under the current map.

Senate

MA-Sen

Sen. Ed Markey defeated Rep. Seth Moulton 73-27 at the Massachusetts Democratic Party’s convention on Saturday, but Moulton exceeded the 15% of the vote necessary to secure a spot on the primary ballot. The two will face off again in a closely watched Sept. 1 nomination battle.

ME-Sen

Democrat Graham Platner’s campaign acknowledged Saturday that he had sent sexually explicit text messages to multiple women after he was married in 2023. An aide told the New York Times that Platner had ceased such activities before launching his bid for Senate in August of last year.

The admission came after the Wall Street Journal reported that the candidate’s wife, Amy Gertner, had told the campaign days after his kickoff she’d discovered the messages several months earlier.

Gertner, who serves as the campaign’s volunteer coordinator, said in a subsequent statement Saturday that she had “confided deeply personal details about my marriage to someone I considered a friend.”

While she did not name that person, Genevieve McDonald, who resigned from the Platner campaign last October following a series of revelations about the candidate’s social media history, told the Times that Gertner had come to her out of concern the messages could hurt Platner’s effort to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins.

In her statement, Gertner also defended her husband, the presumptive Democratic nominee, and said their marriage is now “stronger than ever before.”

The Platner campaign later shared a video in which Gertner told the audience she believed it was “shameful behavior to spend time and energy and resources on negative ads and negative stories on Graham when all he’s trying to do is improve the lives of people who work for a living.”

MN-Sen, MN-Gov

The Minnesota Republican Party gave its formal endorsement to Navy SEAL veteran Adam Schwarze’s bid for Senate and did the same for businessman Kendall Qualls, who is running for governor. But despite their success at the GOP’s convention over the weekend, both still have to get through tough primaries on Aug. 11.

After six rounds of voting on Friday, the roughly 2,000 delegates backed Schwarze by a 63-32 margin over former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya, the candidate preferred by the National Republican Senatorial Committee. The win gives Schwarze access to the state party’s resources, though it doesn’t guarantee him the nomination—even if, in the past, it might have.

That’s because activists from both parties in Minnesota have long taken their endorsement process seriously, and candidates have often pledged to, in local parlance, “abide” by the convention results and end their campaigns if someone else wins.

Tafoya, though, said she would continue her campaign to flip the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. Tafoya has reason to think she’ll do better with the far larger primary electorate: She ended March with almost $1.9 million in the bank, while Schwarze had just over $200,000 to spend.

The two, however, won’t have the primary to themselves this summer. Former NBA player Royce White, a far-right conspiracy theorist who waged a disastrous 2024 campaign for the state’s other Senate seat, was eliminated from contention for the endorsement after the first ballot on Friday, but he, too, said he would keep running.

In an even longer marathon the next day, Qualls beat House Speaker Lisa Demuth 60.4 to 37.3 in the 10th and final round of balloting, which was just above the 60% threshold necessary to win an endorsement. Delegates supported Qualls, who would be Minnesota’s first Black governor, hours after they took part in a moment of silence for Derek Chauvin, the police officer convicted of murdering George Floyd.

Demuth and Qualls were the only two notable GOP candidates who pledged to abide by the convention, but Demuth had an apparent change of heart after her defeat and would not commit to dropping out afterwards. The speaker complained about technical problems during the protracted vote, which at one point required a 30-minute recess to check for “inconsistencies.”

Demuth has until Tuesday’s filing deadline to make her decision, though Qualls will face opposition no matter what she does. Other Republicans like Mike Lindell, one of the most notorious election conspiracy theorists in the nation, have already said they’ll forge on to the primary.

There was less suspense going into the Democratic convention this weekend.

Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan all but secured her party’s endorsement for Senate on Wednesday when Rep. Angie Craig announced she would skip the convention and focus on the primary. Delegates backed Flanagan by acclamation.

Sen. Amy Klobuchar, meanwhile, won the endorsement to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Tim Walz following a last-minute challenge from the left.

Klobuchar defeated former legislative aide Kobey Layne, who would be the first trans person to lead any state, 68-27. Layne says she’ll continue running in the primary, though she’s unlikely to pose much of a threat to the well-known Klobuchar.

WY-Sen, WY-AL

Wyoming Gov. Mark Gordon did not file to run for any office before the deadline passed on Friday. Previously, Gordon had not ruled out seeking the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate or House, though he never took any steps to prepare a campaign for either open seat.

Governors

AK-Gov

Former Gov. Bill Walker, an independent, said Thursday he’s considering launching a last-minute campaign to regain his old job. Walker, who was elected to his only term in 2014, has until Monday evening to decide whether to join the packed field that will duke it out in a top-four primary on Aug. 18.

IA-Gov

Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Randy Feenstra on Friday, just hours after a poll unexpectedly showed Feenstra taking second place in Tuesday’s Republican primary for Iowa governor.

The GOP firm JMC Analytics, which says it’s not affiliated with any Iowa candidates running for governor or Senate, finds wealthy businessman Zach Lahn edging out Feenstra 27-24. Adam Steen, who served in the administration of retiring GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds, is at 16%, while two others have single-digit support.

The only publicly available poll of this race was an April survey for Feenstra’s campaign that showed him crushing Steen 41-9, with Lahn at 8%.

But Lahn, who has used his wealth to finance his advertising campaign, has hoped to capitalize on what the Des Moines Register reported in April was a widespread lack of enthusiasm for the congressman within the party base.

“I haven’t seen him in Iowa,” one voter told the paper. “And I know he’s got a job in Washington and that sort of thing, which I haven’t seen him do anything with either. So, my overall opinion right now of Randy is not real good.”

And even when he’s been on the trail, the congressman has had trouble generating much excitement.

Upgrade to support The Downballot

“I routinely see more people at events for state legislative candidates,” Laura Belin wrote at Bleeding Heartland of the crowd at a February campaign event Feenstra’s team characterized as a “packed house.”

Despite his seemingly low-energy campaign, though, none of Feenstra’s four opponents had managed to emerge as the main alternative to the frontrunner for most of the race, and the congressman looked set to capture the GOP nod with ease.

But in the final days of the race, the campaign grew tenser. Feenstra’s allies launched ads charging that Lahn had “invested $1 million in a sex toy company,” while Lahn countered that Feenstra “ran a program that gave taxpayer-funded benefits to illegal immigrants.”

Trump’s late endorsement may be enough to propel Feenstra to victory on Tuesday. But if MAGA’s master can’t assuage the congressman’s skeptics, the GOP may need to wait a while longer to learn the identity of its nominee.

That’s because Iowa has a unique law that requires candidates for many offices to win at least 35% of the vote to secure their party’s nomination at the ballot box. If no one hits that threshold, the task of picking a nominee falls to delegates at a party convention.

There’s no such drama on the Democratic side, where state Auditor Rob Sand has no opposition on Tuesday’s primary ballot.

Iowa, once a regular battleground, shifted hard to the right during the Trump era, but Republicans appear more than a little concerned that Sand could become the state’s first Democratic governor in 16 years.

Last month, the GOP-dominated legislature approved a bill to limit the governor’s emergency powers, legislation Democrats said only passed because Republicans are worried Sand could soon be in charge. Reynolds has not yet signed the bill.

OK-Gov, SC-Gov

Donald Trump endorsed two more candidates running to succeed outgoing Republican governors on Friday: former state Sen. Mike Mazzei of Oklahoma and South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette.

Trump’s decision to back Mazzei ahead of the packed June 16 primary startled political observers in Oklahoma, Reese Gorman of NOTUS reported.

“My phone is blowing up with Oklahoma officials and politicos absolutely SHOCKED at this endorsement,” Gorman tweeted. “Nobody saw this coming.”

Mazzei, who served as budget secretary to termed-out ​​Gov. Kevin Stitt, seemed like an afterthought for most of this race. Indeed, every poll published last year showed him taking 2% of the vote at best.

Those surveys generally found Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former House Speaker Charles McCall as the frontrunners to advance to an all but certain primary runoff. Meanwhile, former state cabinet official Chip Keating, the son of former Gov. Frank Keating, typically trailed far behind, though his famous name gave him reason to think he could move forward.

Mazzei, though, has been on the upswing in the few polls that were released in 2026, and a survey released mere hours before Trump made his endorsement gave him more reason to smile.

The Club for Growth, whose network is airing ads attacking Drummond but has not endorsed any of his rivals, publicized an internal poll from Pulse Decision Science showing the attorney general in first place with 24% of the vote. Mazzei, however, was just behind at 22—good enough for the second spot in a probable Aug. 25 runoff. Keating, meanwhile, was at 17 and McCall at 12.

The pollster’s memo also argued that, while Drummond is still in the lead, his standing has fallen precipitously as Mazzei’s has risen. In an unreleased Pulse poll from early April, Drummond took 33%, with Keating edging out Mazzei 21-15 for second, and McCall stalled at 12.

Trump’s decision to back Evette going into South Carolina’s June 9 primary, by contrast, was far less surprising.

Evette already had the support of termed-out Gov. Henry McMaster, a longtime Trump ally, and most polls showed her in the hunt for a spot in a likely runoff later this month.

Trump used his Truth Social post to tout Evette’s connections to her state’s “GREAT Governor,” though that wasn’t the only Henry McMaster he wanted to talk about.

“A BIG added plus for Pam is that, I hear, Henry McMaster, Jr., the brilliant and very competent son of Henry and Peggy, will be running with her as the next Lieutenant Governor,” Trump told his followers. Neither Evette nor the younger McMaster responded to the South Carolina Daily Gazette’s inquiries about such a team-up.

But while Trump’s blessing could give Evette a lift, it’s unlikely to be enough for her to secure the majority she’d need next week to avoid a second round of voting. The race includes wealthy businessman Rom Reddy, Attorney General Alan Wilson, and Reps. Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman.

House

FL-24

Rep. Frederica Wilson announced Friday she would not seek a ninth term representing Florida’s 24th Congressional District, a safely Democratic constituency that includes part of the Miami area.

Wilson, 83, made her plans known about a week after she returned to Congress following a month-long absence. The congresswoman, who said surgery on her left eye had prevented her from flying to Washington, had publicly denied subsequent reports she was planning to retire, telling Axios last weekend, “It’s a crazy rumor. … I’m almost distraught.”

But in an interview with the Miami Herald conducted a day before she made her decision public, Wilson said she had in fact made up her mind some time ago.

The congresswoman said she’d sought to be “politically strategic” because she feared a new Republican gerrymander would target her district if she’d already announced she wouldn’t seek reelection. However, she did not address why she continued to say she wanted to run nearly a month after the GOP passed its new map.

Anyone who wants to run to replace Wilson, who was first elected in 2010, has until June 12 to file. Physician Rudy Moise, who lost to Wilson in both the 2010 and 2012 primaries, began running last week before the incumbent revealed her plans, while other potential successors began making preparations to join him.

Miami-Dade County Commissioner Oliver Gilbert on Thursday filed an irrevocable resignation letter with county authorities, citing the state’s “resign-to-run” law in his letter. Gilbert did not initially announce a campaign, though Florida Politics noted his departure takes effect the same day the new Congress convenes on Jan. 3.

State Sen. Shevrin Jones had announced the previous day he would not seek reelection to the legislature, a move that intensified talk he was preparing to run for Congress if Wilson were to step aside.

Former Rep. Kendrick Meek, Wilson’s immediate predecessor, also does not appear to have ruled out a comeback in a recent interview with the Miami Herald’s Claire Heddles. Meek, whom Heddles wrote “was not currently planning to run,” sought an open U.S. Senate seat in 2010. He ultimately placed third behind Republican Marco Rubio and then-Gov. Charlie Crist, who had bolted the GOP to run as an independent.

Heddles also said Miami-Dade County Commissioner Marleine Bastien had been mentioned as a possible contender, but she did not respond to inquiries about her interest.

Wilson ran against both Bastien and Moise 16 years ago in the race to replace Meek in what was then numbered the 17th District.

Bastien and Moise had both hoped to become the first person of Haitian descent to serve in Congress, but neither of them consolidated enough support with the district’s large Haitian American electorate. Wilson, then a state senator, outpaced Moise 34-16 in the nine-person field, with Bastien taking sixth place with 6%.

Wilson, who won the general election without opposition, faced a rematch with Moise in 2012, by which point the district had been renumbered as the 24th. Moise, who this time was her only opponent, got the endorsement of Haiti’s then-president, Michel Martelly, for his second effort. Wilson, though, prevailed 66-34, and she never again faced any serious opposition at the ballot box.

FL-27

Businessman Lev Parnas filed paperwork Thursday to run for Congress as an independent after launching a bid in March as a Democrat, a filing first flagged by Axios’ Andrew Solender.

However, it’s unlikely that Parnas, a former associate of Rudy Giuliani who tried to push the Ukrainian government to investigate Hunter Biden and later served time in prison, will be much of a factor in the race against Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, no matter what banner he runs under.

HI-01

State Rep. Della Au Belatti said Thursday she was ending her primary campaign against veteran Democratic Rep. Ed Case and would run for lieutenant governor of Hawaii instead. Her switch was welcome news for state Sen. Jarrett Keohokalole, who is now the only notable candidate challenging Case for renomination on Aug. 8.

Case, who won a comeback bid for Congress in 2018 after a 12-year absence, has long been one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus. The congressman, though, has never struggled to win reelection since his return, and his critics feared he’d be unbeatable if Belatti and Keohokalole were both on the primary ballot for the safely blue 1st District.

Upgrade to a paid subscription today

Case, who represents most of Honolulu, has argued his constituents would be worse off if they lost his seniority, including his spot on the influential Appropriations Committee. Keohokalole, however, believes the incumbent is the wrong person to address the state’s challenges.

“People are struggling with rising costs, rising housing pressures and growing uncertainty about the future,” Keohokalole told supporters last month. “We cannot afford complacency when so many local families are worried about whether the next generation will still be able to build a life here in Hawaii.”

NV-02

Donald Trump endorsed Air Force veteran David Flippo on Friday ahead of the June 9 primary for Nevada’s open 2nd District, a decision that puts him crossways with the two most prominent Republican elected officials in the state.

Rep. Mark Amodei, who is not seeking reelection, and Gov. Joe Lombardo are both supporting James Settelmeyer, a former state Senate minority leader, in the race to represent this conservative constituency in the northern part of the state.

Amodei griped on social media that Trump “made a mistake today” by supporting Flippo, who was running his second campaign for the 4th District around Las Vegas before switching races in March. The Nevada Independent notes that Flippo only relocated from Las Vegas to Reno after Amodei announced in February that he was calling it a career.

“With all due respect Mr. President, Nevada already has five representatives who live in Clark County,” Amodei wrote. “Your endorsement if followed, would make it six out of six.

“CD-2 has been especially good to you throughout your three runs,” the congressman continued. “This endorsement is an incredibly curious way to say thank you to those people who have been the bedrock of your political endeavors here in original Nevada. JAMES SETTELMEYER WILL NOT LET YOU DOWN.”

One of Settelmeyer’s now-former rivals agreed with that last bit. Former Eureka County Sheriff Jesse Watts said later on Friday he was dropping out and endorsing Settelmeyer, writing, “I cannot support a candidate for Congress who does not genuinely represent Northern Nevada.”

Flippo’s critics haven’t just been using social media to portray him as an outsider. A third-party group called Conservatives for American Excellence has spent close to $500,000 on ads praising Settelmeyer and attacking “Vegas Dave.”

TN-09

Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen has endorsed state Sen. London Lamar’s campaign to succeed him in Tennessee’s 9th District, a longtime Democratic bastion Republicans radically transformed with their new gerrymander.

Lamar began running last month when Cohen announced he would not seek reelection after Republicans transfigured what was a heavily Black and safely Democratic district into a predominantly white constituency that Trump would have won 60-39. Lamar faces state Rep. Justin Pearson, who began running against Cohen last year, in the Aug. 6 primary.

Poll Pile

• IA-Sen (R): JMC Analytics and Polling:

  • Ashley Hinson: 61, Jim Carlin: 22.

  • JMC says it “is not affiliated with any candidate running for Governor or Senator.”

• TX-Sen: Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research:

  • James Talarico (D): 47, Ken Paxton (R): 44, Ted Brown (Libertarian): 1.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): UC Berkeley for the Los Angeles Times:

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 25, Steve Hilton (R): 21, Tom Steyer (D): 19, Chad Bianco (R): 11, Katie Porter (D): 7, Matt Mahan (D): 4, other candidates 1% or less.

  • March: Hilton (R): 17, Bianco (R): 16, Eric Swalwell (D): 13, Porter (D): 13, Steyer (D): 10, Becerra (D): 5.

• CA-Gov (top-two): Emerson College for Inside California Politics:

  • Becerra (D): 28, Steyer (D): 22, Hilton (R): 21, Bianco (R): 12, Porter (D): 5, Mahan (D): 5, other candidates 2% or less.

  • Mid-May: Becerra (D): 19, Hilton (R): 17, Steyer (D): 17, Bianco (R): 11, Porter (D): 10, Mahan (D): 8.

• TX-Gov: Slingshot:

  • Greg Abbott (R-inc): 46, Gina Hinojosa (D): 41, Pat Dixon (L): 1, Jenn Mack Raphoon (I): 1.

• TX-AG: Slingshot:

  • Mayes Middleton (R): 44, Nathan Johnson (D): 39, Tom Oxford (L): 2.

Editor’s note: In the last Digest, we inadvertently omitted Democrat Katie Porter in our summary of an April poll from the Public Policy Institute of California. Porter took 10% in that poll.