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Iowa

With state Auditor Rob Sand favored to win Iowa’s governorship and state Rep. Josh Turek locked in a close race for the state’s open seat in the Senate, Democrats are trying to flip a host of other offices in a one-time swing state that fi…

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NE-01

As Democrats seek to put deep-red House seats in play across the country, a top super PAC just launched a last-minute sneak attack on one of Nebraska’s most implacably Republican districts.

The House Majority PAC booked at least $1 million in …

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Jeff highlights a host of races that will tell us what kind of night Democrats are having and whether they’re on track to take control of Congress. Starting with Indiana and Kentucky, where the first polls close on Tuesday, he flags a pair of House elections on deep red turf where the margins are as important as the outcome. Making his way across the country with stops in Texas, Wisconsin, Kansas, and more, Jeff wraps up with Alaska, where a pivotal battle for the Senate could determine who wins the chamber.

And remember to join us live at 6:45 PM ET on Tuesday for our election night livestream with our partners at Strength In Numbers! Click below to save a reminder to your calendar:

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The redistricting wars triggered by Donald Trump and turbocharged by the Supreme Court are not over—they’ve only paused long enough for the November midterms.

Next year, they’re all but certain to heat up again, and depending on how Tuesday’s elections unfold, the nation’s congressional maps could once again look very different in 2028.

As shown on the map at the top of this story, Democrats could redraw the lines in as many as 12 states before the 2028 elections and in two more ahead of 2030. Whether they’ll be able to will turn on a host of elections taking place on Nov. 3, including races for governor, state legislatures, and state supreme courts, as well as ballot measures.

The GOP is unlikely to sit idly by, though. Republicans currently control 16 states where they could draw new maps in time for 2028, including some they already revamped this cycle. However, Democratic gains could block them in several states.

Below, we catalog all of the most important races that will help determine who wields the cartographer’s pen for the rest of the decade.

At Trump’s behest, Republicans altered the lines in seven states to target 15 seats held by Democrats. California Democrats targeted five Republicans in response, and a court-drawn map in Utah shifted one seat toward Democrats. Although Republicans are struggling to win many of those 15 seats due to this year’s pro-Democratic environment, their new maps could give them a further boost in future years that may not be so friendly to Democrats.

Accounting for these nine new maps, Trump would have won a 234-201 majority of districts, compared to his 230-205 advantage under the lines used in 2024. The median district shifted from Arizona’s 1st in 2024, where Trump won by 3.1 percentage points, to Wisconsin’s 1st, where he prevailed by 4.5 points. Since Trump won the national popular vote by only 1.5 points, the national map gives Republicans an advantage that’s around 3 points greater than their popular support.

That unwarranted edge could balloon by several more points in 2028—unless Democrats respond with their own maps and prevent Republicans from passing new ones.

Heading into the 2026 elections, 44% of all districts are in states whose maps were drawn to favor Republicans, while just 26% are in states with maps intended to benefit Democrats, as shown on the map below. However, Democratic redraws could bring that ratio to parity before 2028, potentially resulting in the most balanced map in many years. That could in turn allow Democrats to ban congressional gerrymandering nationwide if they regain the presidency and win control of Congress.

Democratic Targets

Earlier this year, The Downballot published hypothetical maps exploring how Democrats could target particular Republican seats by redrawing the boundaries in nine states. Eight of these targets are still in play for 2028. We discuss these states below, along with several others that could present opportunities for Democrats.

Target seat counts below are based on the number of seats Republicans currently hold ahead of next week’s elections. Some of these seats will likely change hands this year, but new maps could still solidify Democratic chances of holding them in 2028.

Arizona

• Intent of current map: Neutral

• Current map drawn by: Independent redistricting commission

• 2026 elections that matter: State legislature

• Democratic gains needed: 3 seats in state Senate; 4 seats in state House

• U.S. House targets: 3 seats

Arizona Democrats have their best chance in 60 years to win unified control over state government. With simple majorities, a Democratic legislature could put an amendment on the ballot in 2027 asking voters to temporarily override the state’s independent redistricting commission and adopt a new map for 2028 and 2030, potentially pushing three GOP-held seats in Democrats’ favor.

Winning such a vote would be challenging in a state that Trump carried 52-47, but CNN reported earlier this year that national Democratic leaders consider Arizona a longshot possibility.

California

• Intent of current map: Democratic

• Current map drawn by: Democratic lawmakers (adopted by voters as Proposition 50)

• 2026 elections that matter: State legislature

• Democratic gains needed: None

• U.S. House targets: 1 to 4 seats

Last year, California Democrats placed an amendment on the ballot to temporarily replace the map drawn by the state’s independent commission with one of their own devising that targeted five Republicans. Voters approved it in a landslide. Democrats could put another amendment on the ballot in 2027 to go after one or more of the remaining four GOP seats in 2028.

Democrats only need to hold their current legislative supermajorities, which they are heavily favored to do (they are also strong favorites to retain the governor’s office).

Colorado

• Intent of current map: Neutral

• Current map drawn by: Independent redistricting commission

• 2026 elections that matter: State legislature

• Democratic gains needed: 1 seat in state Senate; 1 seat in state House

• U.S. House targets: 3 seats

Colorado’s Supreme Court disqualified ballot initiatives this year for a new Democratic map that would have targeted three of the state’s four Republicans in 2028. However, lawmakers could refer a constitutional amendment to the ballot in 2028 that would temporarily override the state’s independent redistricting commission and allow a remap for 2030.

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MN Legislature

Control of Minnesota’s narrowly divided legislature is at stake on Tuesday as Republicans hope voter fatigue with the state’s Democratic leaders will blunt the impact of Donald Trump’s unpopularity.

Each of the state’s 67 seats in …

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The Downballot is pleased to present the 2026 edition of our celebrated poll closing times map, sponsored by EDF Action Votes!

A message from our sponsor, EDF Action Votes:

EDF Action Votes is working to elect leaders who will protect our environment, defend clean air and clean water, and hold Big Polluters accountable.

This election could very well determine the future of climate action in Congress, and we’re investing in competitive races where pro-environment candidates can make the biggest difference.

This year, we’re supporting climate champions in some of the most important battleground races across the country. From competitive House districts to Senate races that could decide control of the chamber, these candidates will help shape our ability to protect communities from pollution, advance clean energy, and tackle climate change.

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This vividly colored map lets you know when to start checking returns in each state on election night. Some well-known users include Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama!

Note that all times on the above map are Eastern, not local. You can download jumbo-sized maps keyed to each U.S. time zone covering the 50 states below:

Hawaii | Alaska | Pacific | Mountain | Central | Eastern

If you use one of our maps, please send us a pic!

Keeping this map up-to-date for every election takes a lot of work! We have to triple-check poll closing times for all 50 states, and if anything’s changed, we have to update nearly a dozen different maps that cover all the key time zones. If you appreciate the effort we put into making this resource freely available to all, then we hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support our work.

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In addition, we’ve created versions for several other time zones, including for U.S. territories and those home to large numbers of Americans living abroad, particularly members of the armed forces:

Chamorro | Samoa | Atlantic | Berlin | Tokyo

We also have a version of the Eastern time zone map with each state’s closing time individually labeled, to aid those who are color-blind.

And come back on Nov. 3 at 6:45 PM ET to join us for our election night livestream with Strength In Numbers on Substack Live!

Just click below to add a reminder to your calendar:

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We also invite you to join The Downballot’s private Discord server to discuss the returns with fellow election nerds, available exclusively to paid subscribers. If you haven’t yet upgraded to a paid subscription, just click below. As soon as you do, you’ll receive an email with instructions on how to access our Discord.

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Ohio

Vivek Ramaswamy’s disastrous campaign for governor, along with Republican Sen. Jon Husted’s own struggles in his bid for a full term, have given Ohio Democrats reason to hope that they can break t…

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It’s the most wonderful time of the year!

Yes, once again, our great friends at the exceptional Green’s Bakery are generously sponsoring our annual election prediction contest, with babka (and other treats) for the winners!

You’ll find a link to submit your entries at the bottom of this post.

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AZ Legislature

With Gov. Katie Hobbs and other Arizona Democrats leading in statewide races, their party aims to flip both legislative chambers and win full control of sta…

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GA-Gov

With Jon Ossoff on track to rack up an impressive victory on Nov. 3, the freshman senator is starring in an ad to help his highest-profile ticket-mate—and other Democrats further down the ballot could reap bene…

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If you’re a reader of The Downballot, you’ll now need to subscribe to read the Morning Digest and the comments section, though we’re not putting up a paywall! You can sign up as a free subscriber, though of course, we’d be delighted if you’d support our work with a paid subscription. Either way, just click the button below:

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MO-02

The Congressional Leadership Fund just made a late $650,000 ad buy to help Rep. Ann Wagner, whom Republicans hadn’t treated as vulnerable until now, at the same time as a new Democratic poll shows the longtime congresswoman trailing her Democratic opponent.

That survey, conducted by Public Policy Polling for the House Majority PAC, finds Army veteran and podcaster Fred Wellman with a 46-45 edge on Wagner in Missouri’s 2nd District. There’s been no other recent polling of the race, but CLF’s latest move indicates it’s seeing similar numbers.

What’s especially notable about the group’s new investment, which was flagged by Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick, is that Wagner’s district, based in the St. Louis suburbs, voted for Donald Trump by a 53-45 margin in 2024.

Missouri Republicans telegraphed some concern about their hold on the 2nd District when they sought to make it safer under the newly gerrymandered map they passed last year. That version would have supported Trump 55-43, according to calculations by The Downballot.

That map, however, is on hold pending a referendum next month that could repeal it permanently, meaning Wagner must defend the less-red configuration against Wellman this year. The redistricting saga, though, may have made matters worse for her.

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The Davids also welcome back Lou Jacobson to discuss his new rankings of competitive legislative chambers just published at Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Jacobson dives into a whole host of battles, telling us why Democrats are favored to flip New Hampshire’s House even as its Senate favors the GOP; why GOP supermajorities are threatened in a number of states; and why the Pennsylvania Senate is such a huge prize for Democrats.

And to take advantage of our special 23% off sale in honor of our 23rd anniversary, just click below!

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Democracy itself is on the ballot next month as dozens of states and cities will vote on measures to expand voting access, make it harder for citizens to pass ballot initiatives, change how elections themselves are conducted, and more.

Republicans and their allies in the courts have spent decades trying to restrict voting access, loosen campaign finance limits, and undermine fair elections. These efforts culminated this cycle with Donald Trump’s unprecedented drive to gerrymander congressional maps in red states, which the Supreme Court helped facilitate by eviscerating the Voting Rights Act.

Republican lawmakers and conservative activists are continuing those efforts at the ballot box this year. At the same time, however, reformers are going on offense by proposing measures that would safeguard voting rights and direct democracy. First, though, voters will have the chance to weigh in.

In all, The Downballot is tracking 53 different ballot measures across 29 states that could impact the machinery of American democracy. Below is our comprehensive guide to these proposals. You can also find a complete database of every measure here.

Voting Rights

Three jurisdictions could expand voting access—each in different ways—while a number of states could impose new restrictions.

In Virginia, Democrats are supporting a constitutional amendment called Question 3, which would abolish felony disenfranchisement for those not in prison and automatically restore voting rights upon release. Under Virginia’s 1902 Jim Crow constitution, felony convictions result in lifetime disenfranchisement unless the governor restores an individual’s rights.

Former Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe implemented a blanket policy of restoring voting rights upon completion of a prison sentence, and his successor, Ralph Northam, extended it to cover those on parole or probation.

However, after Republican Glenn Youngkin succeeded Northam, he reinstated the Jim Crow-era policy by requiring individual applications for rights restoration. Youngkin was replaced last year by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who reinstated Northam’s policy, and a federal court later limited post-sentence disenfranchisement. Question 3, however, would permanently ensure those not in prison can vote.

In Massachusetts, Question 4 would allow same-day voter registration and eliminate the state’s requirement that voters register at least 10 days in advance of an election. Meanwhile, in the Los Angeles area, Culver City’s Measure YV would lower the voting age to 16 for local elections.

Republicans are also backing various voting restrictions, though many proposals would simply enshrine existing voter ID requirements or bans on noncitizen voting into state constitutions.

Arizona’s Proposition 144 could make voting harder and burden election administrators. The amendment would extend voter ID requirements to mail voting, restrict state court challenges to election laws enacted by legislators, enshrine an existing ban on noncitizen voting, bar foreign spending on ballot measures, and give voters a right to have mail ballots verified early at polling places instead of only after Election Day votes are counted.

The amendment’s main backer is Republican state Rep. Alex Kolodin, an election denier who is running for secretary of state and unsuccessfully sued to get mail and early voting deemed unconstitutional. Opponents warned that the unspecified voter ID requirement could make mail voting nearly impossible in a state where 75% voted by mail in 2024. Election experts have noted that not all polling places have the equipment to verify mail ballots.

Other measures that would impose or extend voter ID requirements include California’s Proposition 39, Colorado’s Amendment 84, Nevada’s Question 7, North Carolina’s voter ID amendment, and Ohio’s Issue 3.

Several additional measures would also ban noncitizen voting, including Alaska Ballot Measure 3, Arkansas Issue 1, an amendment in Kansas, South Dakota Amendment J, and an amendment in West Virginia.

Redistricting

Eight Republican-run states implemented new congressional gerrymanders in 2026 due to Trump’s push, while Democrats were able to respond only in California. However, many more states could redraw their maps in 2028 or 2030, and some have measures on the ballot this year that could impact future remaps.

You can unlock this complete post by taking advantage of The Downballot’s special 23rd anniversary sale this week! To mark the occasion, we’re offering 23% off our regular rates, so you’ll pay just $7 a month or $58 a year to access our premium content and perks, and support our unique work as a small independent media outlet.

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OH-Gov

Ohio Republican Vivek Ramswamy was engulfed in a firestorm on Tuesday after an attack ad featuring his opponent’s estranged mother leaked from his campaign.

The ad, which was first reported by the newsletter The Rooster and was revealed as part of an online poll, stars Donna Arthur, who identifies herself as Democrat Amy Acton’s mother.

“I love my daughter,” she begins, “but when I saw her lying about her opponent—and it’s not easy for a mother to say this—but Amy has a serious problem. She is a liar. She lies about her past. She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life. My daughter needs help, and she can’t help you if she needs help herself.”

Democrats across the country responded to the ad with fury. Acton’s campaign put out a statement from her brother, Philip Stearns, lambasting Ramaswamy, whose campaign acknowledged it made the ad to News 5 after previously refusing to confirm or deny its involvement.

“It’s not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at twelve years old from our birth mother’s husband into a political talking point,” said Stearns. “After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died.”

Acton recounted the story for the Vindicator in 2019, not long after Republican Gov. Mike DeWine—the man she and Ramaswamy are both hoping to succeed—appointed her state health director. She told the paper that after the man’s arrest when she was 12, she was able to live with her father, who had unsuccessfully tried to win custody of her when she was a toddler.

Later on Tuesday, Acton released a new commercial starring her brother addressing the new attack ad.

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After a turbulent beginning to Trump’s second term last year, 2026 has proven even more chaotic.

The year began with unrest in Minnesota, including the deaths of Renée Good and Alex Pretti in January at the hands of ICE—both garnering national attention and rare cross-party criticism. Protests, larger and more widespread than in the first Trump administration, gained momentum. With an unwanted, unexplained war in Iran, gas and diesel prices skyrocketed. Consumer sentiment has reached all-time lows since the University of Michigan started tracking it in 1960.

Likewise, Donald Trump’s approval has plummeted to its lowest level in either term, but a major question remains: Has voter behavior changed? How are Democrats faring in real elections in 2026 compared to 2018, when they made historic gains in Trump’s first midterms?

Special elections are often cited as proof of which way the electoral winds are blowing, and applying statistics makes it possible to reveal insights never previously reported.

Using a robust new framework, we previously identified seven distinct “periods” of special elections over the past decade—including the highest-performing period on record for Democrats, which went virtually unnoticed at the time.

Not only can we quantify the impact of events like the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, but we can also see it in real time, providing extraordinary insight into whatever may be newly motivating voters.

Now we can go much further. By making adjustments to account for changes in presidential administrations and variations between states, we can compare all special elections across the entire previous decade.

And once we have, we can see that these special elections point to a political environment for Democrats heading into the midterms that is at least as good as it was in 2018—if not better.

Unlocking the potential of special elections

We often see cherry-picking of special elections to fit a certain narrative, whether doom and gloom or unfounded overconfidence. By holistically looking at all elections together in relation to one another, we avoid two common kinds of errors: false alarms, where we think something’s happening that isn’t, and missed signals, where we fail to notice something happening before our eyes.

Selectively highlighting strong Democratic performances while ignoring weak ones can lead to a false sense of an unusually good environment. On the other hand, the single best period of Democratic performance over the last decade largely passed without comment.

Our holistic approach—taking into account all special elections—ensures we aren’t cherry-picking. Still, though, there are other problems in the data itself that weaken the signal and render it misleading. We therefore have applied two corrections to create the cleanest possible dataset, giving ourselves the best chance of finding real patterns.

Adjusting for shifting presidential administrations

The Downballot has long compared special election results to the most recent presidential performance in the same districts. If Kamala Harris won a district by 2 points in 2024, and later a Democrat won a special election in the same district by 12, then we can say the candidate overperformed by 10 points.

This works well if we’re only looking at elections under a single presidential administration. But if we want to look across administrations—which we need to do to compare the environment going into the 2026 midterms with that in 2018—then we need to adjust our data accordingly. Here’s how we do that.

You can unlock this complete post by taking advantage of The Downballot’s special 23rd anniversary sale this week! To mark the occasion, we’re offering 23% off our regular rates, so you’ll pay just $7 a month or $58 a year to access our premium content and perks, and support our unique work as a small independent media outlet.

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FL-AG, FL-Sen

The Republican Party of Florida filed a lawsuit Friday seeking to stop Democrats from airing a commercial centered around a scandal that continues to cause problems for the GOP—and is even threatening criminal prosecution.

“Hope Florida, an idea built on a promise to help Floridians in need,” says the narrator of the ad, which is paid for by the state Democratic Party and is targeted at Florida’s incumbent attorney general. “But a leaked grand jury report found taxpayer money was quietly moved into a dark money political committee that James Uthmeier controlled, not to Florida families. They found $10 million was misappropriated.”

That’s not the only spot targeting Uthmeier over Hope Florida, a charity whose stated goal is to direct people to seek help from religious organizations rather than from the government.

A separate ad from a super PAC called New Deal for All depicts Uthmeier and Sen. Ashley Moody, his immediate predecessor as attorney general, stealing medicine, hospital equipment, and even a teddy bear from suffering children.

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Twenty-three years is a long time in any human lifetime. On the internet, it’s practically an eternity.

On this day in 2003, as a first-year law student, I fired up a brand-new blog that—little did I know—would change my life and touch many others. That site eventually became the one you’re reading right now: The Downballot.

And to celebrate our 23rd anniversary, we’re offering a special sale of 23% off our normal subscription rate. That’s just $7 a month instead of our usual $9, or an even cheaper $58 per year, compared to our standard $75. Just click below to take advantage of this sale, which will only last one week!

Subscribe for 23% off!

As a paid subscriber, you’ll gain access to a wide range of perks, including:

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You’ll also help ensure that The Downballot can keep providing honest, comprehensive coverage of critical elections that most sites overlook. Today, that’s more important than ever.

We live in a time when small news outlets keep collapsing, while media conglomerates consolidate their grip at the top. It’s become harder than ever to trust what the press is telling you. On top of that, far too many journalists treat elections as a consequence-free game.

We reject that nihilism. Democracy matters, and we’re not afraid to call out attacks on our republic. At the same time, we don’t play partisan favorites. Whether the news is good or bad for one party or the other, we will say so—no punches pulled.

Over the years, countless folks have told me how much smarter The Downballot has made them. I can’t express how gratifying that is, which is why it’s my mission to reach as many people as we can for as long as we can.

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As I said, 23 years is an exceedingly long time in internet years, but it’s my hope we can continue our mission for at least that long, if not much longer. I’d therefore be honored if you choose to take advantage of our special anniversary offer of 23% off our regular rates this week.

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Leading Off

Fundraising

Democratic candidates for the Senate and House smashed their Republican opponents in fundraising during the third quarter of the year, giving them the chance to neutralize the deluge of cash from GOP super PACs that’s flooding races from coast to coast.

New disclosures compiled by The Downballot show that Democrats running in next month’s elections, along with independents campaigning with Democratic support, hauled in $499 million from July 1 through Sept. 30, more than two-and-a-half times as much as the $194 million their GOP rivals brought in.

Those Democratic contenders also heavily outspent their counterparts. Collectively, Democrats deployed $574 million, versus just $288 million for Republicans—a margin of two-to-one.

Not all of those funds went toward winning in November, though.

Twenty-one states held a congressional primary or runoff during the third quarter, so some of this spending went toward helping candidates earn a spot on next month’s ballot. In addition, California and Louisiana are hosting several House races that will or may pit only candidates of the same party against one another—races that won’t impact the battle for control of the chamber.

Nonetheless, congressional campaigns have devoted the vast majority of this money, in one way or another, to the general election. Yet even with their sizable spending advantage, Democrats still went into the final month of the race with more cash available: $538 million to $392 million.

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