Leading Off

LA Redistricting

Gov. Jeff Landry issued an executive order on Thursday canceling Louisiana’s House primaries to give fellow Republicans in the legislature the chance to dismantle two majority-Black congressional districts that, until a day earlier, had been protected by the Voting Rights Act.

The move was immediately challenged in federal court by Democrat Lindsay Garcia, a recent law school graduate running in the conservative 5th Congressional District. Other court cases could follow.

Landry’s order rests on a state law allowing the governor to suspend elections “[d]ue to the possibility of an emergency or common disaster.” That authority has typically been used in the past when hurricanes, a frequent occurrence on the Gulf Coast, have disrupted Louisiana elections.

This time, the motivation is purely political and comes extremely late in the election calendar—just two days before early voting was set to begin ahead of the state’s May 16 primaries. According to his directive, primaries for all other offices, including a hotly contested battle for a seat in the U.S. Senate, will proceed as planned.

It’s not clear, however, when nomination contests for the House will take place. The order states only that next month’s primaries and the June 27 runoffs are “suspended” either “until July 15, 2026 or until such time as determined by the Legislature.”

The cancellation will also require another change, according to Senate President Cameron Henry, who told the Louisiana Illuminator that the state would revert to its old approach of holding all-party primaries for House races.

Two years ago, Landry pushed lawmakers to adopt traditional party primaries used in most other states, ending Louisiana’s unusual practice of having all candidates from all parties run together on a single ballot in November.

That system, which was first put in place by the late Democratic Gov. Edwin Edwards in the 1970s, allowed a candidate to win outright with a majority of the vote; if no one cleared 50%, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, would advance to a December runoff.

Henry did not say what date the legislature might try to reschedule the House primaries for, but if it’s before November, averting a runoff won’t be possible even with a majority. That’s because the Supreme Court ruled in 1997 that no one can be elected to the next Congress before the fall Election Day set by federal law.

Republicans also have yet to reveal just how aggressively they plan to erase the power of Black voters. They’re all but certain to demolish the 6th District, which the Supreme Court struck down on Wednesday in Louisiana v. Callais, but they could go further by disassembling the 2nd District as well. Both are represented by Black Democrats, with Cleo Fields serving the former and Troy Carter the latter.

Many other Republican-run states could likewise eliminate minority districts that previously enjoyed VRA protection, as The Downballot detailed in a special report immediately following the Callais ruling, but none are moving with the same alacrity as Louisiana.

Donald Trump, for instance, posted on social media that he had spoken with Gov. Bill Lee of Tennessee, where Republicans could gut the majority-Black 9th District, and said the governor told him that “he would work hard to correct the unconstitutional flaw” in the state’s congressional map.

Tennessee might have more leeway than other states because its primaries aren’t until August, but before Trump’s post, top Republicans were noncommittal in comments to the Tennessee Lookout.

The speaker of the state House, for instance, told the outlet he was still “reviewing the recent opinion” and having “conversations with the White House and other individuals.” Similarly, Lt. Gov. Randy McNally, who presides over the state Senate, said he would speak with fellow Republicans “to discuss the feasibility of the question over the coming days” but called the current map “strong, fair and legal.”

Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, by contrast, said Friday morning that there isn’t enough time for his state to pass a new map for the 2026 elections.

Kemp, though, told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that “it’s clear that Callais requires Georgia to adopt new electoral maps before the 2028 election cycle.” The paper writes that legislators from both parties anticipate that Kemp, a Republican who will leave office in January due to term limits, will hold a special session while he’s still governor to ensure his party can implement new boundaries in time for 2028.

Meanwhile, Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey praised the Callais ruling in a statement but said she would not call the legislature back to work, explaining that “we are not in position to have a special session at this time.”

Lawyers for the state asked the Supreme Court on Thursday to expedite its consideration of an appeal in a separate case that imposed a second congressional district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidates. That request, however, may be aimed at allowing the state to redraw its map before 2028 rather than this year, especially since Alabama’s primary is also on May 19.

Let’s make something very clear: The Supreme Court did not “weaken” or “limit” the Voting Rights Act this week. It eviscerated it. Yet too many traditional media outlets pulled their punches and used weaselly language to describe what just happened to our democracy.

Not us, though. The Downballot announced from the get-go that the court had “gutted” the VRA, because we aren’t afraid to tell the truth. If you appreciate our commitment to clear-eyed candor, then we hope you’ll support our work as a paid subscriber.

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The Downballot

How Dems can fight back, post-VRA

Wednesday was one of the darkest days ever for American democracy, as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act while pretending it was doing no such thing. But on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how Democrats can fight back, both by drawing new maps of their own…

Listen now

3 days ago · 8 likes · 2 comments · David Nir and David Beard

Senate

KS-Sen

Adam Hamilton, the founder of the largest United Methodist church in the country, announced Thursday that he’d seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas.

Hamilton, whose church has nine sites and 24,000 members in the Kansas City area, joins eight other candidates in the August primary. All of his intraparty opponents, however, have struggled to raise money in their quest to become the first Democrat to win a Senate race in Kansas since 1932. The best-funded contender, state Sen. Patrick Schmidt, ended March with only $130,000 in the bank.

Hamilton, for his part, tells the Kansas City Star that he’d considered running as an independent until he’d heard from voters during his listening tour urging him to run as a Democrat. He ultimately decided to heed that advice and touts himself as an “independent-minded Democrat.”

The new candidate, though, argues that Marshall has failed to display any sort of independence when it comes to Donald Trump.

“He’s got the president’s ear. Why is he not doing anything about it?” Hamilton declared. “This is what I heard. I heard it over and over and over again.”

ME-Sen

Facing huge deficits in polling and fundraising, term-limited Maine Gov. Janet Mills announced on Thursday that she was dropping her bid for the Senate, less than six weeks before the Democratic primary.

Mills’ decision leaves oyster farmer Graham Platner, who now faces only minor intra-party opposition, as the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination. Recent polls have shown Platner leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins, who is seeking a sixth term.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, who recruited the 78-year-old Mills to run last year, issued a statement with DSCC chair Kristen Gillibrand immediately after the governor’s announcement saying that “we will work with the presumptive Democratic nominee Graham Platner to defeat” Collins.

MN-Sen

Former state GOP chair David Hann said Wednesday that he was dropping his long-shot campaign for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat. Former sportscaster Michele Tafoya, who has the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s backing, remains the frontrunner in the August primary.

House

FL-11

Former Lake County Property Appraiser Carey Baker says he’s considering running to succeed retiring Rep. Daniel Webster, a fellow Republican, in Florida’s 11th Congressional District. Baker would join Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini, a prominent far-right politician, in the August primary.

Baker, who served in both chambers of the legislature before he was elected appraiser in 2012, lost reelection two years ago after his attempt to avoid paying the $10,685 candidate filing fee backfired badly.

Florida Politics explained at the time that Baker won reelection in 2020 as a write-in candidate after no one filed to oppose him—an option that didn’t require him to pay the hefty filing fee. Baker sought to do the same thing again in 2024, but another Republican, Mark Jordan, caught Baker off guard by filing moments before the deadline.

What followed was an ugly and expensive general election battle between Baker, who had the support of many local GOP leaders like Sabatini, and Jordan, who earned the Republican nomination by default. But while Baker ended up raising well over $200,000, it wasn’t enough to stop Jordan, the only candidate whose name was on the ballot, from winning in a landslide.

FL-25

Both former Boca Raton Mayor Scott Singer and former state Rep. George Moraitis announced Thursday that they’d seek the Republican nomination in Florida’s revamped 25th District, moves that came less than a day after the GOP-dominated legislature approved Gov. Ron DeSantis’ new gerrymander.

Singer and Moraitis had both been running against Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz in the old—and Democratic-leaning—23rd District. Singer, who has self-funded a portion of his campaign, ended March with over $1.2 million on hand, while Moraitis had just under $500,000.

The overhauled South Florida constituency they’ve now converged on would have backed Donald Trump 54-45 in 2024, though it would have gone for Joe Biden 52-47 four years earlier. But while Trump’s declining numbers give Democrats reason to be optimistic that the political climate will look more like 2020 than 2024, it remains to be seen whether Moskowitz will run here.

The congressman, who represents just under half of the revamped 25th District, responded to the release of the new map earlier this week by telling Punchbowl News, “This is going to wind up in court.” But Moskowitz is also preparing a Plan B should the new lines withstand legal scrutiny.

“I’m running for reelection,” he told the publication. “I’ll figure out what district I’m going to run in. I think there’s three districts I could choose from.” The Downballot described those three new districts in detail in our previous newsletter.

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GA-13

Activist Marcye Scott, the daughter of the late Democratic Rep. David Scott, says she’ll run in the special election for the final months of his term in Georgia’s 13th District.

Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, however, has yet to announce when this contest will take place. While state law gives him just 10 days to call a special election following a vacancy—a deadline that falls on May 2—the Atlanta Journal-Constitution notes that he has wide latitude when setting the actual date for the election.

None of the major Democrats running for a full term has said if they’ll also run in the special, though state Sen. Emanuel Jones told the AJC he was likely to. The deadline to run in the regularly scheduled contest passed in March, so it’s too late for Marcye Scott to also campaign for a full term.

NC-11

The House Ethics Committee is investigating Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards for alleged sexual harassment, CNN reported on Thursday.

The story, which was published shortly after Axios reported that the panel was probing Edwards for an unknown reason, did not offer any further details on the nature of the allegations. Edwards suggested the allegations were “false” in a statement to CNN.

“Given the current political environment we are facing in our nation, it comes as no surprise that others with their own political agendas will attempt to raise false accusations in order to create news stories,” he said.

While Edwards represents North Carolina’s conservative 11th District in the western part of the state, Democrats believe they have a chance to unseat him in the fall. The party has rallied around farmer Jamie Ager, whose grandfather represented the same district in the 1980s, and the House Majority PAC recently reserved more than $4 million in TV ad time for this race.

NY-11

A state court judge has restored former police officer Michael DeCillis to the June Democratic primary ballot after he appealed a decision by New York City’s Board of Elections earlier this week ruling that he had failed to submit enough signatures to qualify.

DeCillis is the only Democrat campaigning against Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis in New York’s 11th Congressional District, which includes Staten Island and southwestern Brooklyn. Donald Trump carried the district by an imposing 61-37 margin in 2024, though Democrat Max Rose managed to flip it in 2018 before losing to Malliotakis two years later.

SC-01

Noted hiker Mark Sanford dropped out of the race for South Carolina’s 1st District on Wednesday night after just one month on the trail.

The announcement from Sanford, a Republican who served as governor between his two stints in Congress, marks the end of the latest comeback effort by one of the strangest politicians of yesteryear. Both parties, however, are still paying close attention to the contest to replace GOP Rep. Nancy Mace.

Ten Republicans are still competing in the June 9 primary, so it will be difficult for anyone to earn the majority of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff two weeks later.

There’s no obvious frontrunner, but one wealthy candidate enjoys a huge financial advantage. Physician Sam McCown finished March with $1.2 million on hand, which was more than twice as much as what his nearest intraparty rival, state Rep. Mark Smith, had available.

On the Democratic side, retired Vice Adm. Nancy Lacore has attracted considerably more attention and money than her six primary opponents. Lacore, a victim of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s purge of top military leaders, finished the first quarter of the year with about $580,000 banked, compared to just over $140,000 for attorney Mac Deford.

While Donald Trump carried this district 56-43, one prominent Democratic group believes it will have an opening in the fall. Last week, the House Majority PAC reserved over $2 million in ad time for the Savannah and Charleston media markets, resources that could be used to target the 1st District.

Poll Pile

• LA-Sen (R): Emerson College for KLFY News 10:

  • John Fleming: 28, Julia Letlow: 27, Bill Cassidy (inc): 21, Mark Spencer: 2.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Gudelunas Strategies for California is Not for Sale (anti-Tom Steyer):

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 24, Steve Hilton (R): 23, Tom Steyer (D): 15, Chad Bianco (R): 13, Katie Porter (D): 10, Matt Mahan (D): 6, other candidates 2% or less.

  • Mid-April: Hilton (R): 20, Becerra (D): 15, Steyer (D): 15, Bianco (R): 14, Porter (D): 13, Mahan (D): 6.

• GA-Gov (R): University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

  • Rick Jackson: 27, Burt Jones: 25, Brad Raffensperger: 14, Chris Carr: 3, other candidates 1% or less, undecided: 30.

• CO-08 (D): Normington Petts for Shannon Bird:

  • Shannon Bird: 25, Manny Rutinel: 24, Evan Munsing: 6, undecided: 45.

  • Unreleased February poll: Rutinel: 20, Bird: 19, Munsing: 4.

• IA-02: Public Policy Polling for Lindsay James:

  • Lindsay James (D): 36, Joe Mitchell (R): 33.

  • The release did not include any other potential general election matchups.

Leading Off

FL Redistricting

Florida Republicans on Wednesday afternoon passed a new congressional map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis that aims to unseat four Democratic incumbents—including one whose district had enjoyed the protection of the Voting Rights Act until the Supreme Court issued a ruling gutting the 60-year-old law earlier that same day.

While the VRA is now a virtual dead letter, DeSantis’ map very likely violates amendments to the Florida Constitution prohibiting partisan gerrymandering that voters approved in 2010. However, Republicans were apparently convinced by a DeSantis attorney who argued to lawmakers that they should ignore the ban on gerrymandering because the state’s conservative Supreme Court suggested last year that it might invalidate those amendments.

Florida’s map, which last elected 20 Republicans and just eight Democrats in 2024, was already heavily tilted toward the GOP, but now that advantage could grow even more extreme. However, Republicans declined to meaningfully shore up districts represented by vulnerable GOP incumbents, and in one case, they materially weakened a seat they already hold.

They may also not make all the gains they’re hoping for. In particular, the 2024 presidential results may represent a high-water mark for Florida Republicans. Donald Trump’s deep unpopularity, combined with a sharp U-turn among many Latino voters, could result in a political environment in November that’s more similar to election years when Democrats have been more competitive in the Sunshine State, such as 2020.

We’ve already seen hard evidence of this at the ballot box. In a dozen special elections since Trump returned to the White House, Florida Democrats have outperformed Kamala Harris by an average of 15 points and Joe Biden by an average of 8 points. Democrat Eileen Higgins also turned in a similarly strong showing in winning the race for Miami mayor last year.

Below we discuss the major changes the new boundaries make to Democratic constituencies on a district-by-district basis, as well as the potential new opportunity it might open up. You can find interactive versions of both the new map and the old map on Dave’s Redistricting App.

FL-09: Darren Soto (D)

• Old map: 51-48 Harris (2024); 58-41 Biden (2020)

• New map: 58-41 Trump (2024); 53-46 Trump (2020)

Without even waiting for the Supreme Court to hand down its ruling in Louisiana v. Callais, Republicans began advancing plans to dismantle the prior version of the 9th District, an Orlando-area district that was home to a large Latino population.

Like Democratic Rep. Darren Soto, who first won office in 2016, many residents traced their roots to Puerto Rico. As such, the district had been shielded from tampering thanks to the VRA, but DeSantis’ map—which he published two days before the court’s Callais decision—did not hesitate to split it into four main pieces.

Previously, the 9th included all of Osceola County and a sizable chunk of Orange County just to the north. The revamped version, which now contains less than 60% of the residents of the old district, shifts to the south and east, shedding most of Orange County.

Instead, it takes on conservative turf from the 18th District, including Highlands, Glade, and Okeechobee counties, as well as more of Polk County, plus Indian River County from the 8th District.

Most importantly, it loses its predominantly Latino character and is now home to a white majority among its eligible voter population. Given its demographics and conservative lean, the district would be unlikely to elect a Hispanic Democrat like Soto, though the 2020 presidential results suggest such an outcome would not be impossible.

Should Soto choose to run again, though, a victory would be attributable to his strengths as a candidate and the GOP’s unpopularity. In no way would it vindicate the Supreme Court’s actions.

FL-14: Kathy Castor (D)

• Old map: 53-46 Harris (2024); 59-40 Biden (2020)

• New map: 55-44 Trump (2024); 51-48 Trump (2020)

Formerly a Democratic-leaning constituency centered on the urban cores of Tampa and St. Petersburg, the 14th District surrenders most of its bluest areas to its deep-red neighbors (including the 12th, 15th, and 16th districts). It now encompasses more conservative exurban areas of Hillsborough County that were previously in the 16th.

The makeover is an extreme one: Under a third of residents of the previous iteration of the 14th now live in the new version. Still, longtime Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor told Florida Politics she intends to seek reelection.

FL-22: Lois Frankel (D)

• Old map: 52-47 Harris (2024); 58-41 Biden (2020)

• New map: 55-44 Trump (2024); 51-48 Biden (2020)

Republicans did a number on South Florida—literally. Not only did they radically reshape the map, they renumbered it, too, making it even more complicated to sort through the fallout.

The transformation of the 22nd District, held by Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel, is breathtaking, with the new incarnation incorporating parts of eight different districts.

Once located along the coast in Palm Beach, the 22nd moves entirely inland, and only a scrap—just 13%—of its former population resides in the overhauled district. It now stretches all the way to the Gulf Coast across deep-red areas, including sparsely populated parts of the Everglades, that mostly come from the 26th District.

Most of the old 22nd, around 80% of it, winds up in the 23rd, represented by sophomore Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz. It also grabs some blue turf from the nearby 20th District, making the new-look 23rd more Democratic-friendly. It would have voted 56-43 for Harris, up from 51-49 in its prior version.

Given that she already serves the lion’s share of the 23rd, Frankel would likely run there and already hinted that she might, telling the Miami Herald, “The district number is not relevant.” However, at age 77, she could also opt to retire.

The 22nd is not a lost cause for Democrats, however, particularly since Biden would have carried it narrowly. The most likely incumbent to run there would be Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, who currently represents just under a quarter of the district and is discussed further just below.

FL-25: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)

• Old map: 52-47 Harris (2024); 60-40 Biden (2020)

• New map: 54-45 Trump (2024); 52-47 Biden (2020)

Once confined to Broward County and jutting inland, the new 25th District instead hugs the Atlantic coast from southern Palm Beach County down to Miami Beach. It pulls redder areas from the 23rd and 24th districts while shedding blue turf to the 26th.

Like the 22nd, though, the 25th would have gone for Biden, meaning Democrats could plausibly hold it. However, Wasserman Schultz, now in her 11th term, only represents 16% of the new district, compared to 46% for Moskowitz. That would likely give Moskowitz the inside track.

One important side-effect of the alterations to the 25th is that they substantially weaken the adjacent 26th District, held by GOP Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart. Republicans likely feel confident about his chances since the 26th would still have voted for Trump by a 59-40 margin, even though that’s considerably narrower than his 67-32 win under the old lines.

But the 2020 election tells a different story. Trump carried the district 59-41 under the previous map, but he would have prevailed by just a 50-49 spread in the new district. Three little-known Democrats are running against Diaz-Balart, but the district’s shift could inspire donors to take a second look—or encourage a new candidate to jump in, since the state’s filing deadline for House races is not until June 12.

Yesterday, The Downballot published a special report immediately after the Supreme Court’s VRA ruling detailing exactly how we can expect Republicans to undermine the voting rights of Black and Latino Americans in Congress. You can find it right here:

To unlock the full story, you’ll need to be a paid subscriber. We hope you’ll consider upgrading if you haven’t already.

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The Downballot Podcast

How Dems can fight back, post-VRA

Wednesday was one of the darkest days ever for American democracy, as the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act while pretending it was doing no such thing. But on this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain how Democrats can fight back, both by drawing new maps of their own and laying the groundwork for major SCOTUS reforms.

The Davids also talk with Eugene DePasquale, the chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, about why he’s bullish on the midterms. DePasquale tells us about much-improved Democratic fortunes in voter registration and highlights four critical congressional races in the Keystone State. He also explains how Democrats can retake full control of state government in November for the first time since the early 1990s.

Redistricting Roundup

LA Redistricting

Most of the focus on the Supreme Court’s Wednesday decision in Louisiana v. Callais stemmed from its gutting of the Voting Rights Act, but the ruling also struck down a majority-Black congressional district in Louisiana that Republicans enacted ahead of the 2024 elections.

Now, even though the state is set to hold primaries on May 16 and early voting starts on Saturday, the Washington Post reports that Republican Gov. Jeff Landry is planning to cancel those elections so that GOP lawmakers can first draw a new map.

That would allow the Republicans to dismantle not only the 6th District, which was at issue in Callais, but also the 2nd, the state’s other majority-Black district. Both are represented by Black Democrats, the former by Cleo Fields and the latter by Troy Carter.

A Landry spokesperson declined to comment to the Post, but the governor reportedly could act as soon as Friday. It’s not clear whether Landry intends to cancel primaries only for House races or for other contests as well, nor is it known when he might seek to reschedule the elections.

Any such cancellation would likely face legal challenges, though election law expert Rick Hasen told the Post that he thinks opponents would have to bring a case in state rather than federal court.

Governors

GA-Gov

Lt. Gov. Burt Jones is capitalizing on a major stumble in a recent debate by his chief rival in next month’s GOP primary for Georgia’s open governorship with a new ad highlighting the viral moment.

The spot features a clip of Jones asking wealthy healthcare executive Rick Jackson, “You don’t have any illegals working for you right now?” To that question, Jackson replied, “I don’t know.”

The ad then accuses Jackson of “lying to Georgians,” citing a New York Post article published just hours before the debate. The piece reported that the billionaire businessman had “failed to vet the citizenship status of workers at his own mansion,” according to court documents.

Polls show both Jackson and Jones advancing to a June runoff, though Jackson has consistently occupied the top slot. He also continues to lead in ad spending, with new data from AdImpact shared by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution showing just how dominant his edge has been.

To date, Jackson has spent $56 million, while a super PAC called Georgians for Integrity has chipped in another $20 million to attack Jones. Jones, who is also rich (though not nearly as rich as Jackson), has himself spent $26 million on the airwaves, while every other Republican is far behind.

As Jackson and Jones drive down available ad inventory—and drive up prices for what’s left—advertising on the Democratic side has been almost nonexistent. According to the AJC, the entire field has spent just $2.3 million so far.

House

CA-01

Agriculture consultant Audrey Denney is using her opening ad to argue that state Sen. Mike McGuire, a fellow Democrat who is the frontrunner to claim California’s redrawn 1st District, is an unacceptable choice for Democrats.

“Establishment politicians have failed to stop Trump,” Denney tells the audience. “In Congress, Mike McGuire will be one of them. I won’t.”

Denney continues by saying that her opponent “has been funded by PG&E, big drug companies, and health insurers, and worked with Republicans to lower taxes for corporations and protect insurance companies.”

The commercial, which Denney’s team tells The Downballot is part of a six-figure buy on streaming and digital platforms, comes with just over a month to go before June 2, when she and McGuire will face off in two different contests.

The state will hold its regularly scheduled top-two primary for the new 1st District as well as the special election to replace the late Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa in the old—and much more conservative incarnation—of this constituency. GOP Assemblyman James Gallagher, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, is also running in both races.

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FL-11

Lake County Commissioner Anthony Sabatini on Tuesday became the first notable Republican to launch a campaign to replace retiring Rep. Daniel Webster, whom Sabatini twice attempted to challenge for renomination.

Sabatini was elected to the state House in 2018 but quickly developed a reputation as a far-right troublemaker. In 2021, he announced that he would oppose Webster, a move that angered the congressman, who claimed that Sabatini had gone back on his word to run elsewhere.

Sabatini did wind up running elsewhere, though his relocated campaign for the open 7th District was met with determined opposition by his own party.

Kevin McCarthy’s allies aided a super PAC that ran ads targeting Sabatini, with one operative later telling the Washington Post that the lawmaker was a “legislative terrorist[] whose goal was fame.” Sabatini lost 38-24 to Cory Mills, who had not yet developed the scandal-plagued image he would later earn.

Sabatini soon launched another campaign against Webster, generating attention when he declared, “We need to extinguish the left.” However, he again bailed out abruptly to seek a seat on the Lake County Commission—less than an hour after Donald Trump endorsed the congressman two months before the primary. This time, though, there were no deep-pocketed super PACs seeking to keep him out of office.

Other Republicans are sure to take a look at running to replace Webster in the 11th District, a conservative constituency based in Central Florida. Politico mentions Lake County Sheriff Peyton Grinnell and state Sen. Keith Truenow as possible contenders, though neither appears to have publicly expressed interest in running.

IN-04

A new super PAC targeting Republicans who support a proposed immigration bill loathed by hardliners is going after Rep. Jim Baird ahead of next week’s primary for Indiana’s conservative 4th District.

Homeland PAC reports spending $200,000 on digital ads against Baird in an FEC filing first flagged by CNN’s Patrick Svitek. This expenditure represents by far the largest third-party spending in the nomination contest between Baird and state Rep. Craig Haggard.

The campaign has largely centered around questions about the 80-year-old incumbent’s age rather than his ideology. Haggard, who is in his 50s, recently told the Indiana Capital Chronicle, “I’m running because I think I can do a better job, have more energy and actually show up in the district … than what I see now.”

Baird, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement for a fifth term, has responded by arguing he has more energy than his younger opponent. The congressman, who criticized Haggard for skipping votes in the legislature, told the Chronicle, “Unlike my opponent, I balance time between Washington and the district every single week.”

Homeland PAC, though, isn’t happy with what Baird is doing in the nation’s capital. The congressman has co-sponsored the DIGNIDAD Act, a bipartisan bill that pairs heavier immigration enforcement with a program that would allow undocumented immigrants to obtain lawful immigration status.

“We’re not here to burn the party down,” Ryan Girdusky, the group’s cofounder, told Reuters. “It’s to challenge pro-amnesty Republicans in safe Republican seats and to defend Republicans in challenging seats or in swing districts that need support.”

OH-07

A super PAC heavily funded by the father of Republican Rep. Max Miller is meddling in next week’s Democratic primary for the right to take on the congressman in November.

Text messages from Jobs & Prosperity PAC ostensibly attack former Cuyahoga County Executive Ed FitzGerald, who waged a disastrous campaign for governor in 2014, for being “too LIBERAL for Ohio.”

These messages, which were first flagged by Zeteo News, also argue that FitzGerald would try to thwart Donald Trump’s agenda—framing designed to make Democrats want to nominate FitzGerald. The PAC has also reported spending $25,000 on mailers.

FitzGerald faces Brook Park City Councilman Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker who has the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders and the state AFL-CIO, in Tuesday’s primary for Ohio’s 7th District. Poindexter has also benefited from over $400,000 in ads from Jobs and Democracy PAC, a group aligned with the AI sector.

This constituency in the Cleveland suburbs would have favored Donald Trump by a wide 55-44 spread, but Democrats are hoping that Trump’s poor approval ratings will give them an opportunity. House Majority PAC, the largest pro-Democratic super PAC in House races, reserved over $1 million in the Cleveland media market last week, which could be used to target Miller.

And if Trump is a liability for Republicans this fall in districts as conservative as the 7th, Miller could have a particularly tough time separating himself from his party’s master. The congressman, who hails from a wealthy Cleveland family, was one of Trump’s favorite White House aides during his first term. An unnamed source even told Politico in 2021 that the two had “kind of a unique ‘bro’ relationship.”

Judges

WI Supreme Court

State Court of Appeals Judge Pedro Colon received an endorsement Wednesday from Justice-elect Chris Taylor, an announcement that came one day after he launched his campaign for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court.

Taylor, a liberal who won a closely watched contest earlier this month, is the most prominent figure to take sides in the race between Colon and Clark County Circuit Court Judge Lyndsey Brunette, another progressive who kicked off a bid earlier this month.

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Poll Pile

• NC-Sen: Opinion Diagnostics:

  • Roy Cooper: 50, Michael Whatley (R): 41.

  • Opinion Diagnostics is a Republican firm, but there is no word if this poll was conducted for a client.

• TX-Sen: YouGov/University of Texas:

  • James Talarico (D): 40, John Cornyn (R-inc): 33.

  • Talarico (D): 42, Ken Paxton (R): 34.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): EMC Research for CPCA Advocates (pro-Xavier Becerra):

  • Xavier Becerra (D): 21, Steve Hilton (R): 20, Tom Steyer (D): 17, Chad Bianco (R): 15, Matt Mahan (D): 8, Katie Porter (D): 8, other candidates 3% or less.

• GA-Gov (R): yes. every kid.:

  • Rick Jackson: 32, Burt Jones: 26, Brad Raffensperger: 12, Chris Carr: 10, Clark Dean: 1.

• TX-Gov: YouGov/UT:

  • Greg Abbott (R-inc): 44, Gina Hinojosa (D): 38. (Feb.: 45-35 Abbott.)

• AZ-06: Ragnar Research Partners for Conservatives For America:

  • JoAnna Mendoza (D): 47, Juan Ciscomani (R-inc): 44.

  • Each of Ragnar’s polls was conducted last month.

• CA-11 (top-two primary): GQR for Public First Action (pro-Scott Wiener):

  • Scott Wiener (D): 44, Saikat Chakrabarti (D): 26, Connie Chan (D): 11, other candidates 2% or less.

• CO-03: Ragnar:

  • Jeff Hurd (R-inc): 46, Alex Kelloff (D): 41.

  • The release did not test Dwayne Romero, the other Democrat in the race.

• IA-03: Ragnar:

  • Zach Nunn (R-inc): 48, Sarah Trone Garriott (D): 42.

• KY-06 (D): Normington Petts for EMILYs List (pro-Cherlynn Stevenson):

  • Cherlynn Stevenson: 27, Zach Dembo: 13, Erin Petrey: 6, other candidates 4% or less, undecided: 45.

• MI-04: Ragnar:

  • Bill Huizenga (R-inc): 48, Sean McCann (D): 42.

• MI-10 (D): GSG for Christina Hines:

  • Christina Hines: 30, Eric Chung: 13, Tim Greimel: 7.

• MN-01: Ragnar:

  • Brad Finstad (R-inc): 52, Jake Johnson (D): 42.

• NC-10: Ragnar:

  • Pat Harrigan (R-inc): 52, Ashley Bell (D): 37.

• NC-14: Ragnar:

  • Tim Moore (R-inc): 48, LaKesha Womack (D): 40.

• VA-01: Ragnar:

  • Rob Wittman (R-inc): 46, Shannon Taylor (D): 42.

  • The poll tested the version of the 1st District that was used during the 2022 and 2024 elections.

• WI-01: Ragnar:

  • Bryan Steil (R-inc): 50, Mitchell Berman (D): 41.

  • The poll was conducted before Democrat Peter Burgelis joined the race this month.

The Davids also talk with Eugene DePasquale, the chair of the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, about why he’s bullish on the midterms. DePasquale tells us about much-improved Democratic fortunes in voter registration and highlights four critical congressional races in the Keystone State. He also explains how Democrats can retake full control of state government in November for the first time since the early 1990s.

On Wednesday morning, the Supreme Court issued its long-awaited decision in Louisiana v. Callais. As many had feared, the decision all but eviscerated the most important remaining pillar of the Voting Rights Act.

As a direct consequence, Republicans in eight states have the chance to gerrymander more than a dozen congressional districts that were drawn to prevent discrimination against minorities—all of which are held by Democrats.

Below, we identify the districts that are most at-risk, and why.

The demise of Section 2 of the VRA, which prohibited states from unlawfully splitting members of racial and language minority groups between electoral districts as a way of diluting their voting power, will have a profoundly adverse impact on voting rights and will make American democracy even less representative than it already is.

And its effects will be felt far beyond Congress. Maps for state legislatures, county boards, city councils, and countless other governmental bodies have, since the VRA’s passage in 1965, all been required to comply with the Act. They, too, risk getting eviscerated in the coming years.

But it’s the United States House of Representatives that will experience the most high-profile impact of the Supreme Court’s ruling in Callais. Given how closely divided the chamber is, alterations to just a handful of seats could tip the balance.

The lone saving grace for Democrats—and the cause of voting rights—is that it’s too late in the 2026 election cycle for most states to implement changes in time for the November elections, with Florida a major exception. They can, however, get started on 2028 right now.

And unlike in the redistricting wars that unfolded over the past year after Donald Trump demanded Texas Republicans gerrymander their congressional map—which prompted Democrats to respond in kind in states such as California—Democrats will be reluctant to fight fire with fire this time, and with good reason.

Despite a widespread belief among Republicans and many in the media that the 2024 election had ushered in a new, multi-racial future for the GOP, subsequent events have exposed this supposed realignment as largely a mirage. What’s more, Republicans never adjusted their rhetoric or behavior to match this alleged new reality. To the contrary, the party has only grown more racist and xenophobic.

That means we can expect Republicans to demolish Black and Latino districts and convert them into conservative constituencies dominated by white voters with little hesitation.

But for Democrats, who espouse a belief in multi-racial democracy, and whose electoral coalition depends on strong support from minorities, dismantling these districts to create more blue seats may be politically untenable.

(Notably, though, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told CNN in February, “[I]f, for whatever reason, they allow certain states in the Deep South to reopen the congressional map, that doesn’t mean that every other state in other parts of the country ... can’t do exactly the same thing.”)

Under Section 2, states were obligated to draw districts where minority groups could elect their preferred candidates when, broadly speaking, three conditions were met.

First, members of a minority group had to comprise a majority in a sufficiently compact geographic area. Second, the group had to be politically cohesive. And third, white voters had to reliably vote as a bloc against the minority group’s preferred candidates, thereby keeping them out of office.

In practice, the law resulted in the creation of predominantly Black districts that typically elect Black Democrats, and predominantly Latino districts that typically elect Latino Democrats. Such districts were not required to have an electorate made up of a majority of minority voters, but most did, while the rest came very close.

Throughout the life of the VRA, map-makers were obligated to follow Section 2’s dictates when drawing boundaries, and many did. But many did not and were only compelled to do so following litigation, in cases that often dragged out over many years.

That’s precisely how many of the most vulnerable districts created under the VRA came to be. And it’s also why Republicans, who have frequently fought the establishment of such districts and even refused to recognize the legitimacy of courts that imposed them, will be particularly eager to unravel them now.

Note that the constituencies discussed below do not constitute a complete list of all districts that were protected by the VRA. However, the rest are either in states where Republicans do not control the redistricting process, or could not plausibly be targeted even with the most aggressive of gerrymanders.

Alabama

Alabama is home to two districts that directly owe their existence to the VRA: the 7th, based in Birmingham and Tuscaloosa, and the 2nd, which connects Mobile and Montgomery via a rural corridor known as the Black Belt.

Both are majority-Black, and both have only ever elected Black Democrats, though the 7th is much older. It came into being following the 1990 census thanks to a lawsuit and led to the election of the state’s first Black member of Congress since Reconstruction. It’s currently held by Rep. Terri Sewell, who was first elected in 2010.

The 2nd, by contrast, is of much more recent vintage. It was first imposed by a federal court ahead of the 2024 elections after another protracted court battle during which Republicans refused to draw a new map that complied with the VRA. Rep. Shomari Figures comfortably won the seat.

But because Alabama is such an overwhelmingly red state, with large swaths of conservative rural turf, GOP lawmakers could readily transform both districts back into majority-white constituencies that would easily elect Republicans.

Florida

Florida is home to several districts where Black or Latino voters can elect their preferred candidates, but Republicans have only one obvious target: the 9th District, which includes the southern part of the Orlando region, Disney World, and nearby agricultural areas, and has a large Latino population that is predominantly Puerto Rican.

When the 9th was first established in its current form following the 2010 census, it was a Democratic stronghold, and it elected Rep. Darren Soto, a Democrat of Puerto Rican descent, in 2016. By 2024, however, declining support among Latino voters had made the district much more precarious for Democrats.

Read more

Leading Off

FL-11

Republican Rep. Daniel Webster said Tuesday that he would not seek a ninth term representing Florida’s 11th Congressional District, an announcement that marks the end of a lengthy career in which Webster both made history and nearly lost his seat in Congress on three different occasions.

Webster, who revealed his plans a day after his 77th birthday, is leaving behind a constituency that includes Disney World, Orlando’s western suburbs, and the gargantuan retirement community of The Villages.

Donald Trump carried the current incarnation of this district 58-41 in 2024, and he would have taken it by a similar 57-42 spread under GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed new gerrymander.

Anyone looking to replace Webster has until June 12 to file to run in the Aug. 18 primary. Florida, unlike its neighbors, does not have primary runoffs, so whoever wins a plurality in the GOP primary will be favored to capture the seat in the fall.

But the state’s political landscape was quite different in 1980 when Webster, who, according to family lore, is related to the famed 19th-century politician of the same name, first ran for office at the age of 31.

Webster decided to seek a seat in the state House, which had been dominated by Democrats since Reconstruction, after local officials in Orlando’s Orange County rejected a proposal by his church to rezone a home as a Sunday school.

Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory over Jimmy Carter helped Webster narrowly win in the general election, but state Democrats remained firmly in power. Webster, however, rose through the ranks in the minority caucus as his party gradually picked up more seats. His patience was finally rewarded in 1996 when Republicans flipped the chamber and made him the first GOP speaker since 1874.

Term limits forced Webster to leave the chamber just two years later, but he successfully made the jump to the state Senate in 1998. Webster’s attempts to become the chamber’s president faltered, though he did claim the still-influential post of majority leader in 2006.

Webster was again termed out in 2008, the same year that Democrat Alan Grayson flipped what was then numbered the 8th Congressional District in the Orlando area. Webster initially decided against challenging the freshman congressman, who attracted national attention when he summed up the GOP’s healthcare plan as “die quickly,” but he changed his mind and entered what had become a busy primary field.

Webster’s late start didn’t stop him from easily winning the GOP nod, though, and he surfed the 2010 national Republican wave to a landslide 56-38 victory over Grayson. (Grayson would return to Congress after winning a 2012 election for a new seat, but he would give it up to wage an unsuccessful Senate campaign in 2016.)

But despite his easy initial victory, Webster came close to losing his seat no fewer than three times over the next decade.

His first serious threat came in 2012, when Democrats recruited former Orlando Police Chief Val Demings to challenge him. Demings’ task got considerably tougher after GOP lawmakers passed a new gerrymander that made Webster’s constituency, now numbered the 10th, considerably more conservative. The incumbent, though, ran behind Mitt Romney and only prevailed 52-48.

While Webster had no such trouble in 2014, he received dire news the following year when the Florida Supreme Court, which still had a liberal majority at the time, struck down the GOP’s congressional map for violating the voter-approved Fair Districts Amendments.

Webster recognized that his district was about to become dramatically more Democratic, but he seemed to have no good options for continuing his political career. That sense of doom hovered over Webster’s long-shot bid to replace House Speaker John Boehner after Boehner stepped down mid-way through his term in 2015.

Webster was unable to keep Paul Ryan out of the speaker’s chair that October, but his fortunes began improving the following month when GOP Rep. Richard Nugent announced he wouldn’t seek reelection in the reliably red 11th District. Webster eventually decided to run to succeed his colleague, even though he represented less than a fifth of the redrawn constituency.

Nonetheless, Webster scored a 60-40 victory in the primary over Justin Grabelle, Nugent’s former chief of staff and preferred successor, before easily winning the general election. Demings, meanwhile, replaced Webster in the revamped 10th District, which she would eventually leave behind when she unsuccessfully challenged Republican Sen. Marco Rubio in 2022.

Webster’s third and final major scare came that same year, when an infamous far-right loudmouth almost ended his career.

Laura Loomer, a self-described “proud Islamophobe” who had raised millions in 2020 for a doomed campaign against Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel in the 21st District far to the south, ventured up to central Florida to challenge Webster for renomination.

Loomer blasted the incumbent as one of the “do-nothing Republicans who are in safe red seats who have an ability to push back and fight back against what is happening and they’re not” and won outsized attention for her effort.

Redistricting also once again complicated Webster’s life. Gov. Ron DeSantis rammed through a new gerrymander that, to spread conservative voters throughout the Orlando area, left Webster with a constituency that was almost two-thirds new to him. The state Supreme Court, which by now had a conservative majority, blessed the new boundaries this time.

In the end, Webster survived his bout with Loomer with a shockingly weak 51-44 win—a near miss that helped propel Loomer to even greater influence in GOP politics. The narrow escape proved to be a one-off, though, as the congressman easily secured victory in 2024 for what would be his final term.

Webster announced his retirement one day after DeSantis unveiled his new proposal to re-gerrymander Florida—an idea the congressman had urged him not to pursue in the first place.

“Don’t do it. I’ve said it from the beginning,” Webster told Punchbowl News last month. “I’ve been around enough reapportionments to know it’s a slippery slope.”

David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! It’s been our hope since day one to keep this newsletter paywall-free, but it’s a goal we can achieve only if folks who are able to support our work sign up as paid subscribers. If you appreciate our unique coverage of overlooked elections and are in a position to upgrade your subscription, we’d be tremendously grateful if you’d consider doing so.

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Redistricting Roundup

WI Redistricting

A panel of three Wisconsin judges dismissed a lawsuit challenging the state’s congressional map as an incumbent-protection gerrymander on Tuesday, saying that a state Supreme Court ruling from 2021 bars lower courts from entertaining the plaintiffs’ claims.

In that earlier Supreme Court case, a conservative majority rejected arguments that the state Constitution barred partisan gerrymandering, concluding, “Claims of political unfairness in the maps present political questions, not legal ones.”

Plaintiffs in this latest lawsuit sought to differentiate their case by arguing that Wisconsin’s map was instead an “anti-competitive” gerrymander designed to help reelect incumbents of both parties.

The panel, however, ruled that it was “unable to meaningfully distinguish between ‘fairness’ and ‘competitiveness’” as far as Supreme Court precedent was concerned.

“These holdings are dispositive of Plaintiffs’ claims, and this panel, as an inferior court, is obligated to obey them,” the judges wrote. “Until the Supreme Court says otherwise, Plaintiffs’ claims are non-justiciable and non-cognizable under Wisconsin law.

The plaintiffs told the Associated Press’ Scott Bauer that they would appeal, and they could get a more favorable audience, since liberal justices—several of whom dissented in that 2021 case—now hold a majority on the state Supreme Court.

House

CA-14

Eleven candidates have filed to run in the summertime special election for California’s safely blue 14th District, scuttling a Democratic plan to rally around a placeholder who could have filled the seat two months early.

Several Democrats who were running for a full term had urged the field to unite behind former state Sen. Bob Wieckowski, arguing that he was best-suited to win an outright majority in the first round of voting on June 16. That would have allowed Wieckowski to be seated in Congress right away, replacing former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s vote in the Democratic caucus.

However, one of the leading Democrats seeking a full term, state Sen. Aisha Wahab, declined to join the call to get behind Weickowski and opted to run in the special election herself. Two other Democrats are also running in both races: BART board president Melissa Hernandez and self-funding businesswoman Rakhi Israni, both of whom had supported the placeholder strategy.

They’ll be joined by two more little-known Democrats, five Republicans, and one independent. Given the large field, it’s likely that a runoff will be required on Aug. 18, though it’s possible Wahab could win a majority in the first round given her prominence.

Three other Democrats, all of whom had backed Weickowski, have opted to run solely for a full term: San Leandro City Councilman Victor Aguilar, campaign operative Matt Ortega, and nonprofit founder Carin Elam.

FL-07

Ryan Elijah, a former TV anchor with Orlando’s Fox affiliate, announced Tuesday that he would challenge scandal-ridden Rep. Cory Mills in the Republican primary for Florida’s 7th District.

Elijah told Fox News he was running because of the “serious” allegations against Mills, who, among other things, has been accused of domestic abuse against two different women.

Mills has proclaimed his innocence and continued his campaign for reelection, and Donald Trump rewarded him with an endorsement in February. The congressman, however, has struggled to convince donors he’s worth investing in and finished March with less than $120,000 in the bank.

A few other Republicans were already challenging Mills for renomination, but none of them have attracted much attention or money. But Elijah, who left Fox35 earlier this month, argues Republicans would be courting disaster in the general election if they renominate Mills.

Trump carried the current incarnation of the 7th District by a 56-43 spread, while Gov. Ron DeSantis’ proposed new gerrymander would reduce Trump’s margin of victory to 55-43. The map, which would weaken Democrats in other Central Florida seats, would still leave Mills in a conservative constituency, but Elijah said there’s “obviously a chance we could lose the seat” if the incumbent is on the November ballot.

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping to take advantage of the situation Elijah is seeking to prevent. The most prominent contender is Bale Dalton, a former NASA chief of staff. Navy veteran Marialana Kinter has also raised a notable sum, though Dalton has maintained a large financial edge.

NY-11

Democrats face a potential catastrophe in New York’s 11th Congressional District as their only candidate who’s actually running just got knocked off the ballot, while their only candidate on the ballot is not actually running.

The debacle took full form on Tuesday when New York City’s Board of Elections ruled that Michael DeCillis, a former officer with the New York Police Department, had failed to submit enough signatures to make the June primary ballot.

The objections to DeCillis’ signatures were filed by Rennie Meyers, a staffer for the other Democrat in the race, electrician Allison Ziogas. Ziogas, though, dropped her short-lived bid last week, leaving DeCillis as the lone Democrat seeking to take on Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis.

At a hearing before the Board of Elections on Tuesday, attorneys for the Ziogas campaign sought to withdraw Meyers’ objections to DeCillis’ filings and also sought to remove Ziogas’ name from the ballot. The panel, however, denied both requests.

It’s not clear what might happen next, though the Staten Island Advance recently reported—after Ziogas dropped out but before DeCillis was disqualified—that Staten Island Democrats were considering trying to field an independent candidate.

The deadline for such a candidate to file is May 26, though they’d have to collect 3,500 signatures—almost three times as many as the requirement for those affiliated with a recognized political party.

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Judges

WI Supreme Court

Wisconsin Court of Appeals Judge Pedro Colon has joined next year’s race for an open seat on the state Supreme Court, making him the second liberal candidate hoping to replace retiring conservative Justice Annette Ziegler.

Two weeks ago, Clark County Circuit Court Judge Lyndsey Brunette kicked off her campaign to flip Ziegler’s seat, a prospect that would give progressives a 6-1 edge on a court that conservatives had dominated until 2023.

Colon’s entry, though, makes it likelier that the state will hold a primary next spring, something that wasn’t necessary in this year’s contest—won in a landslide by liberal Judge Chris Taylor earlier this month—because only two candidates filed.

No conservative contenders have emerged yet for 2027, but should three or more candidates file to run, they’d all face off in an officially nonpartisan February primary. The top two vote-getters would then advance to a second round of voting in April.

Poll Pile

• IA-Sen (D): FM3 Research for VoteVets (pro-Josh Turek):

  • Josh Turek: 48, Zach Wahls: 28.

  • Unreleased March poll: 34-25 Wahls.

• MI-Sen (D): Glengariff Group for the Detroit Regional Chamber:

  • Haley Stevens: 25, Abdul El-Sayed: 23, Mallory McMorrow: 16.

  • May 2025: Stevens: 34, El-Sayed: 22, McMorrow: 14.

• TX-Sen: Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research:

  • James Talarico (D): 44, John Cornyn (R-inc): 41.

  • Talarico (D): 46, Ken Paxton (R): 41.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): YouGov for CBS:

  • Steve Hilton (R): 16, Tom Steyer (D): 15, Xavier Becerra (D): 13, Chad Bianco (R): 10, Katie Porter (D): 9, Matt Mahan (D): 4, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 4, Tony Thurmond (D): 1, undecided: 26.

• MI-Gov (D): Glengariff for the Detroit Regional Chamber:

  • Jocelyn Benson: 66, Chris Swanson: 8

  • The Detroit Regional Chamber supports Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who is running for governor as an independent.

• MI-Gov (R): Glengariff for the Detroit Regional Chamber:

  • John James: 37, Perry Johnson: 20, Mike Cox: 10, Aric Nesbitt: 7, other candidates 3% or less.

• OR-Gov (R): Hoffman Research Group for Crosstabs:

  • Christine Drazan: 35, Ed Diehl: 18, Chris Dudley: 14.

• TX-Gov: Slingshot Strategies for TPOR:

  • Greg Abbott (R-inc): 48, Gina Hinojosa: 43.

Leading Off

OH-15

An unexpected ad booking from one of the most influential Democratic super PACs shows the party is serious about flipping a solidly Republican House district in central Ohio that, until now, had received little outside attention.

Late last week, the House Majority PAC announced its first wave of fall ad reservations, a massive outlay totaling more than $191 million in TV time and another $80 million for digital advertising.

Our new tracker explains which districts are the likely targets for each reservation, but one in particular stands out: a $1.8 million booking in Columbus, Ohio. That media market includes all or part of half a dozen different constituencies, but just one is plausibly in play this year: the 15th District, to the city’s southwest.

Two Democrats are competing in next week’s primary for the right to take on Republican Rep. Mike Carey, a Republican who first won his seat in a 2021 special election. The more familiar name belongs to former state Rep. Adam Miller, who was Carey’s opponent two years ago. The other candidate is Don Leonard, an Ohio State University professor who is seeking office for the first time.

Miller convincingly outraised Leonard through mid-April. Both Democrats, however, have considerably less money available than Carey, who does not have any primary opposition next Tuesday.

This district’s recent history underscores why HMP’s planned investment comes as a surprise, though in a statement to The Downballot, the PAC confirmed it has Carey in its sights.

“This year, HMP plans to go deeper into the map than ever before and compete everywhere,” communications director CJ Warnke said. “Mike Carey is beholden to special interests, voting to raise prices on his constituents and cutting their health care — and in November, Democrats are flipping OH-15 blue.”

While the 15th was one of the nation’s most competitive congressional districts during the first decade of the 21st century, that changed shortly after the 2010 GOP wave propelled Steve Stivers to a double-digit victory against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy, the Democrat who had narrowly defeated Stivers two years before.

Republicans had full control over the redistricting process that unfolded the following year, and they used their power to make Stivers’ new seat reliably red. Mapmakers even appended a bizarre “peninsula” into downtown Columbus, apparently so that the congressman could represent several influential banks in the city.

As a result, Stivers had no trouble winning reelection through the rest of the decade. While his decision to resign in 2021 to lead the state Chamber of Commerce came as a shock, there was little question that a fellow Republican would replace him. That Republican was Carey, a former coal company lobbyist who won the ensuing special election 58-42.

The GOP approved a new map in 2022 that made the 15th District somewhat less conservative to boost other constituencies, but it was still more than red enough for Carey to secure another two terms with ease. The congressman won his most recent term in 2024 by defeating Miller 56-44 as Donald Trump was carrying his district by a 54-45 spread.

The state was soon required to redraw its congressional boundaries again because of convoluted rules voters approved in 2018. Faced with even less appealing alternatives, the Democratic minority on Ohio’s bipartisan redistricting commission agreed to a new GOP gerrymander last fall that slightly widened Trump’s margin of victory to 55-45.

Carey initially seemed to be secure as ever following the remap, but a worsening political environment for Republicans has HMP taking a serious interest in a seat that well-funded Democratic groups haven’t seriously contested in 16 years.

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That’s why we keep doing the work we do here at The Downballot. We’ve spent decades shining a spotlight on the often overlooked elections that will, this fall, determine what kind of constraints Trump faces in his final two years.

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Redistricting Roundup

FL Redistricting

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis released a new congressional map on Monday morning that would target four Democratic-held seats, a day before lawmakers were set to convene for a special session on redistricting that DeSantis called earlier this year.

Legislative leaders said they would address the map in committee on Tuesday, with Speaker Daniel Perez adding that he expects a vote before the full House the following day.

The proposal features 24 districts that Donald Trump would have carried in 2024, versus just four that would have gone for Kamala Harris, a major shift from the 20-8 Trump advantage under the current, already-gerrymandered lines.

Four Democratic incumbents would see their districts become significantly redder: Darren Soto in the Orlando-area 9th; Kathy Castor in the 14th around Tampa; Jared Moskowitz in the Fort Lauderdale-based 23rd (which would be renumbered as the 22nd); and Debbie Wasserman in the suburban Miami 25th District.

However, any pickups for the GOP would require Republicans to hold on to most of their gains from the 2024 elections. But multiple special elections in Florida since Trump returned to the White House, as well as last fall’s race for mayor in Miami, have shown the exact opposite happening.

As a consequence, should this map pass, several districts designed to favor Republicans could instead be winnable for Democrats if the trends we’ve seen throughout this cycle continue into the fall.

MS Redistricting

Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves has called a special session of the legislature to address the state’s Supreme Court map, setting the date for three weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court issues its decision in Louisiana v. Callais—a case that could spell the end of the Voting Rights Act.

Last year, U.S. District Judge Sharion Aycock ruled that the map used to elect Supreme Court justices in Mississippi violated the VRA by discriminating against Black voters and ordered the legislature to draw a new one. However, lawmakers wrapped up their session earlier this month without taking action, prompting plaintiffs to file remedial proposals with the court.

Republicans responded by asking the court to halt further proceedings pending the Callais decision. Aycock has yet to weigh in on the request.

TX Redistricting

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority on Monday overturned a ruling from a district court that had determined Texas’ new congressional map was an illegal racial gerrymander, dispensing of the case without a written opinion.

Monday’s decision won’t impact the 2026 elections, because the Supreme Court had previously blocked the lower court decision from taking effect in December.

In a 160-page opinion issued the previous month, U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Brown—an appointee of Donald Trump—had concluded it was likely that Texas Republicans improperly sorted voters between districts based on their race in violation of the Constitution. He therefore issued an injunction barring the map from being used.

However, a majority of justices stayed that injunction in a terse order because, in their estimation, the three-judge panel on which Brown sat had “failed to honor the presumption of legislative good faith.” On Monday, they wrote even less—just a single sentence referring back to that previous decision.

All three liberal justices dissented, as they did in December, when Elena Kagan excoriated her conservative colleagues for running roughshod over the extensive work of the district court, which included “a nine-day hearing, involving the testimony of nearly two dozen witnesses and the introduction of thousands of exhibits.”

As the Brennan Center’s Michael Li notes, though, Texas’ map is still the subject of a long-running legal challenge on other grounds.

Senate

ME-Sen

Allies of Republican Sen. Susan Collins are spending almost $2 million on new ads attacking oyster farmer Graham Platner, even though there’s still well over a month to go before the June 9 Democratic Senate primary.

The opening spot from Pine Tree Results PAC begins by reminding the audience about Platner’s old social media posts, including comments characterizing rural Americans as racist and suggesting that women who fear getting raped should “not get so fucked up” drinking alcohol. The narrator continues by saying that Platner “even bragged about a Nazi tattoo on his chest.”

The GOP’s offensive comes more than a month after Gov. Janet Mills, Platner’s main intraparty rival, launched a $1 million ad campaign focused on her rival’s misogynistic posts. Platner quickly responded with his own spot in which he called these “words and statements I abhor from a time in my life when I was struggling deeply after returning from war.”

Polls conducted since that exchange have continued to find Platner far ahead of Mills in the primary and performing better in a general election against Collins. Mills, for her part, stopped running TV ads in mid-April and has yet to return to the airwaves.

MN-Sen

A state judge has barred former NBA player Royce White from contacting his ex-wife and son, Minnesota Public Radio reports.

Judge Kristen Marttila determined in February that White’s ex-wife “credibly testified” that he had “committed domestic abuse against [her] on numerous, unspecified past occasions by slapping, grabbing or pulling the hair.” The judge made a similar determination about testimony alleging that White had physically abused his son.

White, who has maintained his innocence and is appealing the ruling, is seeking the Republican nomination for Minnesota’s open Senate seat two years after he badly lost his campaign for the state’s other seat. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is supporting former sportscaster Michele Tafoya in the August primary.

WY-Sen

Rancher Sam Mead, the nephew of former Gov. Matt Mead, announced late last week that he would seek the Republican nomination for Wyoming’s open Senate seat.

Mead will be the underdog against Rep. Harriet Hageman, who has the support of Donald Trump, retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis, and other conservative notables, in the August primary. Mead, though, argued that Hageman’s support for the sale of public lands makes her an unacceptable pick to replace Lummis.

“I think that’s incompatible with a lot of the values that I believe are central to people in Wyoming,” he told WyoFile. Mead added of Hageman, “[W]hen confronted about it, there didn’t seem to be a lot of listening going on. It was kind of ‘dig your heels in and say that’s the way things are.’”

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Governors

CA-Gov

Billionaire Tom Steyer is airing ads attacking former U.S. cabinet member ​​Xavier Becerra for the first time, a move that comes as polls show Becerra dramatically picking up support ahead of the June top-two primary for California governor.

“[O]n ​​Xavier Becerra’s watch, more than 85,000 migrant children went missing,” Steyer’s narrator says of Becerra, a fellow Democrat who served as Joe Biden’s secretary of Health and Human Services. “Some were trafficked, some were abused, some were forced into labor and lost limbs.”

The spot cites a 2023 New York Times report detailing how Becerra’s department, which sought to take unaccompanied migrant children out of overcrowded facilities by placing them with sponsors, had lost contact with about a third of these children. Caseworkers who spoke to the paper also said that they would “rush through vetting sponsors.”

Becerra has defended his tenure at HHS by saying that he and subordinates did their best with inadequate funding from Congress to contain a chaotic situation they’d inherited from Donald Trump’s first administration.

“They had closed facilities, they had fired the licensed caregivers,” Becerra recently told the Los Angeles Times. “How do you take care of thousands of kids in a center that could house maybe 50 kids?”

Until this month, Becerra’s many rivals hadn’t seen much reason to focus on his record in Biden’s Cabinet. While Becerra had been one of the state’s most prominent politicians during his previous tenure as state attorney general, polls showed him with little support in the packed race to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom.

But things started to quickly change just over two weeks ago after Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had been one of the Democratic frontrunners, dropped out after multiple women accused him of sexual assault. (Swalwell soon resigned from Congress.)

Recent polls show Becerra joining Steyer and former Rep. Katie Porter in polling ahead of the rest of the Democratic pack. A pair of Republicans are also still in the hunt for a spot in the general election: former Fox host Steve Hilton, who received Trump’s endorsement earlier this month, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.

The three Democrats are closely bunched together, even though Steyer’s spending has utterly dwarfed everyone else’s.

AdImpact reported last week that Steyer has spent or reserved close to $130 million in ads, an amount that represents more than two-thirds of the total outlays in this contest. Becerra, by contrast, had booked just under $4 million, while Porter was even further back.

FL-Gov

State Agriculture Commissioner Wilton Simpson finally announced Monday that he would seek reelection rather than run for Florida’s open governorship.

While Simpson had once appeared to be a likely candidate to replace termed-out incumbent Ron DeSantis, a fellow Republican, everything changed last February when Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Byron Donalds. Simpson avoided ruling out a bid for the state’s top office over the ensuing year, but he never took any obvious steps to prepare a campaign.

MA-Gov

Former state cabinet official Mike Kennealy’s campaign for Massachusetts governor came to an end on Saturday after he failed to earn enough support at the state Republican convention to earn a spot on the September primary ballot.

Wealthy businessman Michael Minogue dominated the gathering, taking over 70% of the delegates’ vote and earning the GOP’s endorsement. Venture capitalist Brian Shortsleeve was a distant second with 15.5%, which was just over the 15% he needed to keep his campaign going. Kennealy, though, came up short with only 14.1%.

The eventual GOP nominee will be the underdog against Gov. Maura Healey in this Democratic-friendly state.

WI-Gov

Former Gov. Tommy Thompson says he still hasn’t ruled out trying to reclaim the job he gave up more than two decades ago.

“I know I could win, but I don’t know if I want to get involved,” Thompson, who led Wisconsin from 1987 to 2001 before resigning to become George W. Bush’s secretary of Health and Human Services, told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Thompson, 84, also insisted that his age wouldn’t preclude him from running.

Thompson would face Rep. Tom Tiffany, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, in the August Republican primary. The state’s filing deadline is June 1.

House

FL-20

Despite resigning from Congress last week and facing a February trial on federal corruption charges, former Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick says she’s still running to represent Florida’s now-vacant 20th District, NOTUS reports.

Apart from her serious legal travails—prosecutors have accused Cherfilus-McCormick of using stolen taxpayer funds to finance her victorious special election campaign in 2021—the ex-congresswoman also faces several opponents in the Aug. 18 primary.

The roster includes former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, rapper Luther Campbell, and physician Rudy Moise.

GA-13

Protect Progress, a super PAC backed by the cryptocurrency industry, has spent $2 million boosting state Rep. Jasmine Clark in next month’s Democratic primary for Georgia’s 13th District, which became vacant last week following the death of longtime Rep. David Scott.

The PAC’s latest outlay, which was just shy of $1 million, was flagged on Monday by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, but the group began spending more than two weeks ago—before Scott’s death. Scott, who had been the top Democrat on the House Agriculture Committee, opposed a Republican bill in 2023 that would have loosened regulations on cryptocurrencies.

Clark faces several rivals in the May 19 primary for the safely blue 13th District in the Atlanta area, though none have benefited from any outside spending. A special election for the remainder of Scott’s term has not yet been called.

NJ-12

Physician Adam Hamawy, one of several candidates running in the busy June primary for New Jersey’s open 12th District, is the new beneficiary of a $600,000 ad buy from American Priorities, a super PAC formed earlier this year to counter AIPAC’s involvement in Democratic primaries.

The group’s opening ad praises Hamawy as someone who “treated first responders on 9/11, saved lives in Iraq, [and] healed children in Gaza and Haiti.” The ad does not otherwise directly mention Israel or related topics, though it shows footage of Hamawy in front of signs reading “Healthcare Not Bombs.”

American Priorities, which tells the New Jersey Globe it plans to spend “approximately $2 million” to aid Hamawy in the race to replace retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman, is the first major third-party group to begin spending here.

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UT-01, UT-02, UT-03

Two Republicans in Utah’s congressional delegation fared poorly at their party’s convention over the weekend, but both will face off against their far-right challengers once again in the June 23 primary.

Democrats, meanwhile, settled on their field of candidates for the new-look 1st District around Salt Lake City, which became solidly blue after a state court ruled that the previous map violated anti-gerrymandering laws and imposed a new plan instead.

That race will feature four contenders, including Liban Mohamed, a former government relations advisor for TikTok who finished first at the Democrats’ convention on Saturday with 51% of the vote. Just behind was former Rep. Ben McAdams, who took 49% in the fifth and final round of voting.

They’ll be joined by state Sen. Nate Blouin and attorney Michael Farrell, who were eliminated in earlier rounds. However, all four hopefuls had already gathered signatures to make the primary ballot, so their performance at the convention served only as a barometer of their support among the roughly 700 convention-goers.

For two low-performing candidates who did not submit signatures, though, it was the end of the line: software engineer Luis Villareal and Salt Lake City Councilmember Eva Lopez Chavez. Both fell far short of the 40% threshold needed to advance to the primary without signatures.

Republicans also met on Saturday and delivered a blow to Rep. Blake Moore, who’s seeking reelection in the conservative 2nd District. Moore’s chief rival, state Rep. Karianne Lisonbee, prevailed among delegates by a wide 62-34 margin. Moore, however, had already collected signatures, though Lisonbee relied solely on winning at the convention.

In the deep-red 3rd District, meanwhile, Rep. Celeste Maloy edged out former state Rep. Phil Lyman just 51-49, ensuring Lyman a spot on the primary ballot as well. (Lyman said he would also gather signatures but acknowledged Saturday he had not obtained enough.)

For Moore, the poor showing was nothing new: He turned in weak performances at the last two GOP conventions but prevailed handily in the primary both times. Maloy, however, has struggled both at party gatherings and in primaries. In 2024, she defeated challenger Colby Jenkins by just 176 votes after a recount.

VA-06

Democratic Del. Sam Rasoul, who had been considering a bid for Virginia’s revamped 6th District, has announced that he won’t join the race.

Two other well-funded Democrats, journalist Beth Macy and former Rep. Tom Perriello, are still vying for the new 6th, which moved dramatically to the left under the new map voters greenlighted last week. Republican Rep. Ben Cline, meanwhile, has yet to say where—or whether—he plans to seek reelection.

And there’s still some question as to whether the map will take effect. On Monday, the state Supreme Court heard oral arguments in a lawsuit that contends lawmakers failed to follow proper procedures when they placed a constitutional amendment on the ballot allowing the state to redraw its congressional districts.

WI-01

Milwaukee Alderman Peter Burgelis announced over the weekend that he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st District.

The Democrats who were already running to flip this southeastern Wisconsin constituency have struggled to raise money, but Burgelis may have reason to be hopeful that national donors will respond more favorably to him.

WisPolitics’ JR Ross, who first broke the news of Burgelis’ interest, said earlier this month that the alderman’s backers “believe he would bring real money into the race as a gay candidate who could appeal to LGBTQ+ donors nationally, as well as groups who want to take a run at Steil.”

Whoever wins the Democratic nomination could also get some much-needed outside help this fall. Last week, the House Majority PAC announced it was reserving a little more than $2 million in fall TV time in Milwaukee, a booking that’s likely intended for this district.

The state GOP responded to Burgelis’ entry by attacking him as “an out-of-district Milwaukee politician.” The entire city of Milwaukee is located in Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore’s 4th District, though Burgelis insists voters wouldn’t be bothered by his lack of ties to the 1st District. (Members of Congress do not need to live in the district they represent, but most do.)

Republicans also noted that Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s chief of staff reprimanded Burgelis in 2023 for allegedly being “verbally abusive” to female staff members. Burgelis told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel the following year that he’d addressed the issue with Crowley’s office.

Donald Trump carried the 1st District by a 52-47 margin in 2024, while Steil won a fourth term by a wider 54-44 spread.

Legislatures

UT State House

Former U.S. Rep. Rob Bishop will return to the Utah House after Republican delegates picked him to fill a vacant seat at Saturday’s party convention. Bishop, 74, is also unopposed in the primary for a full term in the fall.

Bishop served as the chamber’s speaker in the early 1990s, about a decade before he was elected to Congress in 2002. The congressman decided not to run again in 2020, though he signed on as former state GOP chair Thomas Wright’s running mate in that year’s race for governor. Their ticket ended up taking last place in the four-way primary with less than 8% of the vote.

Mayors & County Leaders

St. Petersburg, FL Mayor

Former Rep. Charlie Crist on Monday launched his long-awaited campaign to challenge St. Petersburg Mayor Ken Welch, a fellow Democrat, in the August nonpartisan primary.

Crist, who served as governor of Florida as both a Republican and an independent before winning election to Congress as a Democrat in 2016, told the Tampa Bay Times that Welch has displayed “a lack of executive leadership.”

Crist specifically cited the mayor’s conflict with the Tampa Bay Rays, the Major League Baseball team whose leadership is trying to relocate to Tampa rather than remain in St. Petersburg. He further charged that Welch hasn’t done enough to make the city more affordable.

Crist, though, is just one of several candidates running against Welch. The busy field also includes Democrat Brandi Gabbard, a member of the City Council, and Republican Jim Large, a former city fire chief. But Crist, whose allies have spent months raising money in anticipation of supporting him, begins the race with name recognition and resources that none of his rivals can match.

Welch’s team, however, has argued that Crist, who moved to Minnesota after his landslide 2022 loss against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis before returning to St. Petersburg last year, is the wrong person to call for change.

“Charlie Crist jumping into another race is about as predictable as it gets, the same hamster wheel, just a different election cycle,” his campaign said in a statement. “Now he’s trying to come back to a city he’s left behind.”

All candidates will face off on a single ballot on Aug. 18, which is the same day that Florida holds its party primaries. If no one wins a majority, the top two vote-getters will advance to the Nov. 3 general election.

Poll Pile

• NM-Sen (D): Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal:

  • Ben Ray Lujan (inc): 69, Matt Dodson: 9.

• KY-Gov (R): Axis Research:

  • James Comer: 46, Michael Adams: 14.

  • Neither Comer nor Adams has announced if they’ll run next year.

• NM-Gov (D): Research & Polling:

  • Deb Haaland: 52, Sam Bregman: 30.

• SC-Gov (R): Starboard Communications:

  • Alan Wilson: 20, Ralph Norman: 14, Nancy Mace: 13, Pamela Evette: 12, Rom Reddy: 10, Josh Kimbrell: 3.

• AL-01 (R): PI Polling for the Alabama Daily News:

  • Rhett Marques: 22, Jerry Carl: 20, Joshua McKee: 6, other candidates 4% or less, undecided: 47.

  • Early April: Carl: 23, Marques: 19.

Leading Off

House

The top super PACs involved in House races for both parties unveiled their first wave of fall ad reservations on Thursday, but while Republicans are largely playing defense, the new data shows that Democrats are especially eager to go on the offensive in seats that previously appeared safe for the GOP.

The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC announced that it had booked $272 million in TV and digital advertising across 54 unique media markets, while the Republican-aligned Congressional Leadership said it had reserved $153 million in 37 markets.

As is almost always the case, neither PAC identified which specific House seats it’s targeting. That’s in part because many media markets, especially large ones, often cover multiple competitive districts. Only once they start airing ads will groups like HMP and CLF decide how much of their ad budgets they’ll assign to each race.

The two PACs have converged on many of the same areas. To take just one example, both outfits have booked over $5 million in Lansing, Michigan, where Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is defending the swingy 7th District.

But while both sides are devoting considerable resources toward holding vulnerable seats, HMP is taking a more aggressive approach than its counterpart.

“Nearly 80% of these reservations are in offensive districts—underscoring HMP’s commitment to aggressively expanding the House battlefield and putting more seats in play than ever before,” the PAC said in a statement.

Those offensive opportunities go well beyond the seats Republicans narrowly won in 2024, or constituencies that became more Democratic thanks to new maps in California and Virginia.

In Tennessee, for instance, HMP has booked close to $1.6 million in the Nashville market, which includes the 5th District. While Republican Rep. Andy Ogles easily won a second term in 2024 as Trump carried his district by a wide 58-40 margin, this year’s race is looking considerably more eventful.

Ogles is not only plagued by a litany of scandals, but he’s also struggled to raise money to defend himself. On top of that, he faces opposition in the August GOP primary from former state Agriculture Commissioner Charlie Hatcher. Ogles ended the first quarter of the year with a woeful $85,000 in his campaign coffers, though he has Trump’s endorsement as he tries to secure renomination.

Meanwhile, both of the Democrats vying to take on Ogles, Columbia Mayor Chaz Molder and Nashville Metro Councilor Mike Cortese, have managed to outraise the incumbent. Molder has been the standout, banking $1.3 million as of March 31.

HMP has also booked $670,000 in the adjacent media market of Lexington, Kentucky, which is home to the open 6th District.

This constituency, which Republican Rep. Andy Barr is giving up to run for the Senate, is an unlikely Democratic target, but not an impossible one. While Trump won it 57-42 in 2024, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear carried it in a 60-40 landslide the previous year. Both parties have competitive primaries on May 19.

HMP has designs on widening the playing field further to the south as well. It’s directing almost $20 million across the three largest media markets in Florida, a state the super PAC did not spend money in during either the 2022 or 2024 election cycles.

These reservations, which are split between Miami, Orlando, and Tampa, come less than a week before the state legislature is set to begin a special session on redistricting called by Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Republicans, however, have yet to release a proposed new map as they continue to debate whether an aggressive new gerrymander would backfire in what’s shaping up to be a strong Democratic year.

That political climate explains why CLF has yet to book ad time in any of the three red states noted above, or in many other GOP-held seats that HMP is targeting, like Alaska’s At-Large District or Montana’s 1st.

“This initial reserve reflects the reality that this cycle, again, will be fought on a narrow map,” CLF said in a statement. “This reserve shows we are committed to defending our own while aggressively supporting our candidates on offense.”

The PAC, though, is trying to make up a shortfall in competitive districts where Republican candidates have struggled to raise money.

In Flint, Michigan, for example, CLF has booked $2.5 million to target Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet in the 8th District. Trump carried this district 50-48, but Navy veteran Amir Hassan, the GOP frontrunner in the August primary, finished the first quarter with just $65,000 on hand.

McDonald Rivet’s $3.4 million war chest was over 50 times larger than her opponent’s, but HMP is still not taking anything for granted. The PAC has booked close to $4.2 million to help the Democratic incumbent.

All of these early bookings, though, come with one important caveat. While they allow outside groups to lock in cheaper ad rates before the high demand for TV time drives prices up, they can always change—and almost certainly will.

As the political picture evolves, advertisers can add money to existing reservations or direct money to new markets. They can also scale back, or outright cancel, bookings as Election Day draws closer. As we have for many years, The Downballot will continue to track bookings made by HMP and CLF, as well as other top groups, throughout the election cycle.

Governors

MI-Gov

Former state House Speaker Tom Leonard dropped out of the Republican primary for Michigan’s open governorship on Thursday. Leonard, who struggled to raise money or notch much support in the polls, bemoaned that “[o]ver the last several weeks, this race has gotten increasingly negative” in a statement announcing his departure.

Leonard did not call out any of his now-former rivals by name, but the primary has largely been defined by the nasty battle between Rep. John James and wealthy businessman Perry Johnson. The GOP field also includes former Attorney General Mike Cox, state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, and pastor Ralph Rebandt.

House

UT-01

Four people went on the record to accuse Salt Lake City Councilwoman Eva Lopez Chavez of sexual misconduct in a new story published by the Salt Lake Tribune on Wednesday.

Lopez Chavez is seeking the Democratic nomination for Utah’s 1st Congressional District, which her accusers cited as a reason they decided to speak to the paper now.

One, fellow Councilwoman Victoria Petro, said that in 2022, Lopez Chavez grabbed her throat and “pushed me back against a pillar so that my back was against the wall and told me, ‘The only reason I still f--- men is because a woman hasn’t shown me what I really want.” Three others, two of whom are also elected officials, described similar encounters with Lopez Chavez.

Lopez Chavez’s attorney responded to the Tribune’s questions by denying she’d displayed “inappropriate” behavior toward three of her accusers, while claiming the fourth described an incident that “never occurred.”

Obituaries

John Seymour

Former Sen. John Seymour, whose brief tenure from 1991 to 1992 made him the last Republican to represent California in the upper chamber, died Saturday at the age of 88.

Seymour was serving in the state Senate in 1990 when U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson, a fellow Republican who had been reelected two years earlier, defeated Democrat Dianne Feinstein in the race for governor. Wilson appointed Seymour to replace him ahead of what would be a challenging special election in 1992.

Seymour held off conservative U.S. Rep. William Dannemeyer, but he badly lost to Feinstein in what proved to be a watershed election in California politics that headlined what became known as the Year of the Woman. While Republican George H.W. Bush had taken the Golden State’s electoral votes in 1988, Bill Clinton’s victory marked the start of a Democratic presidential winning streak that’s in no danger of ending.

The Sacramento Bee has more on Seymour’s career in its obituary.

Poll Pile

• MA-Sen (D): University of New Hampshire:

  • Ed Markey (inc): 46, Seth Moulton: 33, Alex Rikleen: 6.

  • Feb.: 35-23 Markey.

• MA-Sen: UNH:

  • Markey (D-inc): 55, John Deaton (R): 32. (Feb.: 56-27 Markey)

  • Moulton (D): 56, Deaton (R): 25. (Feb.: 59-23 Moulton)

• NH-Sen (R): UNH:

  • John Sununu: 56, Scott Brown: 19.

  • Jan.: 48-25 Sununu.

• NH-Sen (D): UNH:

  • Chris Pappas: 61, Karishma Manzu: 18.

  • Jan.: 65-11 Pappas.

• NH-Sen: UNH:

  • Pappas (D): 49, Sununu (R): 42. (Jan.: 50-45 Pappas.)

  • Pappas (D): 52, Brown (R): 38. (Jan.: 52-42 Pappas.)

• RI-Sen (D): UNH:

  • Jack Reed (inc): 65, Connor Burbridge: 15.

• RI-Sen: UNH:

  • Reed (D-inc): 52, Raymond McKay (R): 34.

• MA-Gov: UNH:

  • Maura Healey (D-inc): 52, Michael Minogue (R): 32. (Feb.: 56-27 Healey)

  • Healey (D-inc): 53, Mike Kennealy (R): 32. (Feb.: 55-28 Healey)

  • Healey (D-inc): 51, Brian Shortsleeve (R): 29. (Feb.: 58-28 Healey)

• NH-Gov: UNH:

  • Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 47, Cinde Warmington (D): 39.

• NM-Gov (D): Emerson College for KRQE News 13:

  • Deb Haaland: 40, Sam Bregman: 24.

• NM-Gov (R): Emerson:

  • Gregg Hull: 21, Duke Rodriguez: 10, Doug Turner: 9, undecided: 61.

• RI-Gov (D): UNH:

  • Helena Foulkes: 45, Dan McKee (inc): 11, Gregory Stevens: 3, undecided: 45.

  • Feb.: 34-18 Foulkes.

Leading Off

GA-13

Democratic Rep. David Scott died Wednesday at the age of 80, a development that came following years of scrutiny about his physical and mental health.

Scott was seeking reelection to Georgia’s 13th Congressional District, a heavily Democratic seat that includes Atlanta’s southeastern and outer northeastern suburbs, despite calls for him to step aside after 12 terms in office.

Six fellow Democrats were challenging Scott in a May 19 primary where the issue of generational change was at the forefront.

Everton Blair, a 33-year-old former Gwinnett County Board of Education chair, launched his bid last year by arguing it was “time for the next generation to step up and correct the direction that this country is headed.”

But while Blair, who would be the first gay person to represent Georgia in Congress, initially refrained from criticizing Scott directly, that changed as the campaign progressed. The challenger’s website faulted the congressman for being “absent in the district” and from the House floor, which he called “a threat to our democracy.”

State Rep. Jasmine Clark, likewise, began her campaign last spring by saying she didn’t intend to focus on Scott’s health or performance in office. She instead told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, “What’s our succession plan? The voters are asking the question, and I don’t know that I have to expressly criticize him.”

But Clark, 43, made news in the fall when she discovered Scott hadn’t cast a ballot in the last six elections - mainly municipal elections, but including the November 2024 election when Georgia’s 16 electoral votes were on the line.

“Voting is literally, to me, bare minimum of what we as elected officials are called to do when we are in public service,” she told CBS, which confirmed Scott had last voted in May of 2024.

State Sen. Emanuel Jones and dentist Heavenly Kimes, a member of the cast of the reality TV show “​​Married to Medicine,” also are on the ballot, though they each largely refrained from criticizing Scott. Two little-known candidates filed ahead of last month’s candidate filing deadline as well.

Scott turned in paperwork to seek a 13th term even as several fellow Democratic House members in their 70s and 80s opted to retire. State election officials tell the Georgia Recorder that it’s too late to remove the congressman’s name from the ballot, but votes cast for him will not be counted.

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The close of filing also means that it’s too late for any new candidates to enter the race to represent this seat in the next Congress. The six remaining candidates will face off on May 19 in the primary, and contenders need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 16.

It will be up to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, though, to schedule a special election for the remainder of Scott’s term. This contest, which would take place sometime after next month’s primary, would operate under somewhat different rules.

All the candidates would compete on one ballot rather than in separate party primaries. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party, would advance to a general election unless one person won a majority in the first round.

But while there’s little question that the next representative from the 13th District, which Kamala Harris carried 71-28, will be a Democrat, Scott’s constituents will go without representation for several months. The GOP caucus now holds a 218-212 majority in the House, with the 13th being one of five vacant seats in the chamber.

Scott’s death marks the end of a half-century career in Georgia politics. Tia Mitchell writes in her obituary in the AJC that Scott first decided to run for the state House in 1974 after Alberta Williams King, the mother of Martin Luther King Jr., was murdered along with a deacon at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church.

Scott won his election, and he earned a promotion to the state Senate eight years later. He then got the chance to run for Congress in 2002 after Georgia gained two seats following the 2000 census, and he sought the brand-new and heavily Democratic 13th District.

Scott campaigned alongside his brother-in-law, the legendary Atlanta Braves Hall of Famer Hank Aaron, and decisively won both his primary and the subsequent general election.

While Scott would anger his fellow Democrats during his long tenure by endorsing GOP Sen. Johnny Isakson’s 2016 reelection campaign and voting with Republicans to undermine regulations aimed at reining in predatory payday lenders and preventing auto dealers from charging higher interest rates to people of color, he rarely struggled to win renomination.

His only tough race took place in 2020 when he unexpectedly earned just 53% of the vote against several underfunded primary foes, which was just a few points more than the majority he needed to avert a runoff. Scott, however, scored 66% two years later, and he took 58% in 2024 after court-ordered redistricting dramatically transformed the boundaries of his district.

Scott, meanwhile, began the 2020s on the ascent in the House. He became chair of the Agriculture Committee after the 2020 elections, a milestone that made him the first African American to lead the panel. However, Scott’s fellow Democrats soon questioned whether he was the right person for such an important role.

Politico wrote in 2022 that even those close to Scott “acknowledged he’s noticeably slowed in the last few years, citing his increasingly halting speech and trouble at times focusing on a topic.” When a reporter asked the chair some months later how a hearing had gone, the Georgian replied, “I don’t know.”

Scott remained the top Democrat on the panel after Republicans won control of the House in 2022, but his party continued to gripe about his performance.

“David Scott is Exhibit A for term limits,” an unnamed Democratic colleague told Politico in 2024. “He was a respected, talented member who has become diminished. And it’s painful for people to watch.”

While Scott tried to play down concerns about his age, he drew attention to it that November after Politico’s Francis Chung snapped a picture of him in a wheelchair. An irate Scott responded, “Who gave you the right to take my picture, asshole?” while an accompanying staffer threatened to complain to Chung’s editor.

Scott’s efforts to keep his prominent committee post ended the following month when he received the support of just five out of 61 members of the Democrats’ Steering and Policy Committee.

Scott, though, remained determined to stay in Congress despite yearslong rumors that he’d retire, and he filed to run again just the month before his death.

House

MI-13

Detroit City Councilmember Mary Waters filed paperwork just before candidate filing closed on Tuesday for a primary rematch against Democratic Rep. Shri Thanedar.

The news, which was first reported by Sam Robinson of the site Detroit one million, is an unwelcome development for state Rep. Donavan McKinney, Thanedar’s main intraparty challenger in Michigan’s safely Democratic 13th District. Candidates only need to win a plurality of the vote in August to earn their party’s nomination, and the incumbents would benefit from having two notable opponents rather than just one.

Thanedar first won his House seat after he defeated state Sen. Adam Hollier 28-24 in a packed 2022 primary for the open 13th District, an outcome that guaranteed Detroit wouldn’t have a Black representative in Congress for the first time since the early 1950s. (Thanedar is Indian American while Detroit’s other House member, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)

Black leaders hoped to avoid a repeat of this scenario this cycle by consolidating behind just one African American candidate ahead of the August primary, and McKinney earned endorsements last year from prominent local elected officials. The strategy seemed to be working until Tuesday, when Waters, who is also Black, unexpectedly filed.

However, it remains to be seen if Waters, who does not appear to have made a public announcement about her plans to run again, was able to collect the requisite 1,000 signatures she needs to be on the ballot.

Waters accomplished this task in 2024 when she first challenged Thanedar, but a more prominent candidate did not. Hollier, who was running two years after his close defeat, failed to make the ballot after election officials determined he’d failed to turn in enough valid signatures—a problem that has sunk many other Michigan candidates.

Waters argued that Detroit once again needed a Black member of Congress and charged that Thanedar had done a poor job serving his constituents, but she struggled to raise enough money to compete against the wealthy congressman. Thanedar ultimately turned in a 55-34 victory over Waters, who had more success last year in her reelection campaign to the City Council.

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MN-02

Democratic state Sen. Matt Klein drew unwelcome national attention on Wednesday when the prediction market platform Kalshi said it had fined and suspended him for having “traded a small amount on the outcome of his own election.”

Klein, who is competing in the August primary for Minnesota’s open 2nd Congressional District, soon apologized.

“I heard from friends that there was a prediction market site with wagers on my primary race,” he said in a statement to the Minnesota Reformer. “I was curious about how it worked. I set up an account and bet $50 of my own funds that I would win the primary.”

“My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets,” added Klein, who paid about $540 and accepted a five-year suspension from the platform.

Klein faces state Rep. Kaela Berg and former state Sen. Matt Little in this summer’s primary for the seat that Rep. Angie Craig, their fellow Democrat, is giving up to run for the Senate. Little responded to the news about Klein by snarking, “Did he bet on me to win? Because I could understand that..”

NJ-07

VoteVets, an influential organization that backs Democrats with backgrounds in national security, announced Wednesday that it would spend at least $200,000 on ads to aid Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett ahead of the June 2 primary. VoteVets is the first major outside group to air commercials in the four-way contest to take on Republican Rep. Tom Kean in New Jersey’s 7th District.

WI-01

Milwaukee Alderman Peter Burgelis told Urban Milwaukee this week that he’s considering seeking the Democratic nomination to take on Republican Rep. Bryan Steil in Wisconsin’s 1st District. Burgelis, who said he “will make a decision in the near future,” has until June 1 to file.

While the entire city of Milwaukee is located in Democratic Rep. Gwen Moore’s 4th District, Burgelis argued he would give voters in this southeastern Wisconsin constituency the kind of representation they’re lacking. He told the site, “Families and seniors in the first Congressional district are struggling with affordability and they don’t have anyone in Congress standing up for them.”

A few Democrats were already challenging Steil, but they’ve all struggled to raise money. Emergency room nurse Mitchell Berman ended March with just over $140,000 on hand, which was only a fraction of the roughly $5.6 million that Steil had stockpiled. None of the other Democrats, however, had so much as $13,000 banked.

Donald Trump carried the 1st District by a 52-47 margin in 2024, while Steil won a fourth term by a wider 54-44 spread.

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Judges

WI Supreme Court

State Appeals Judge Pedro Colon, a former Democratic member of the Wisconsin legislature, “is planning to enter the state Supreme Court race soon,” reports the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Molly Beck.

Colon would join Clark County Judge Lyndsey Brunette, a fellow liberal, in next year’s race to succeed Justice Annette Ziegler, a conservative who is not seeking reelection. No notable conservatives have entered the race for Ziegler’s seat.

Poll Pile

• GA-Gov (D): Concord Public Opinion Partners for Education Reform Now Advocacy:

  • Keisha Lance Bottoms: 42, Michael Thurmond: 12, Geoff Duncan: 8, Jason Esteves: 6, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 29.

  • Education Reform Now does not appear to have made an endorsement in this race.

• GA-Gov (D runoff): Concord:

  • Bottoms: 56, Thurmond: 22.

  • Bottoms: 60, Duncan: 16.

  • Bottoms: 60, Esteves: 16.

• RI-Gov (D): Expedition Strategies for the Rhode Island League of Charter Public Schools:

  • Helena Foulkes: 34, Dan McKee (inc): 20, Gregory Stevens: 8, undecided: 38.

  • The poll was conducted March 24-29. The Rhode Island League of Charter Public Schools says it does not make endorsements in gubernatorial races.

• AZ-01 (R): NextGen Polling:

  • Joseph Chaplik: 24, Jay Feely: 15, John Trobough: 6, undecided: 54.

• PA-07 (D): GBAO for CPC PAC (pro-Bob Brooks):

  • Bob Brooks: 24, Lamont McClure: 17, Carol Obando-Derstine: 12, Ryan Crosswell: 9, undecided: 36.

  • Unreleased Feb. poll: McClure: 19, Brooks: 13, Carol Obando-Derstine: 13, Crosswell: 8.

Leading Off

VA Redistricting

Virginia voters approved a constitutional amendment by a 51.4 to 48.6 margin to allow the state to adopt a new congressional map designed to give Democrats control of 10 of the 11 congressional districts.

Republicans are still waging a legal battle to stop the new map, and the state Supreme Court is set to hear arguments next week. But if Republicans lose in court after losing at the ballot box, conservative candidates—including members of the Old Dominion’s five-member GOP delegation—will need to decide where, or if, they’ll run this fall.

But while Republicans hoped to make this problem moot by defeating the referendum, Democrats began launching campaigns for the redrawn districts soon after lawmakers unveiled the new boundaries in February. The victory for the “yes” side on Tuesday is also sure to spur a new wave of campaign kickoffs from Democrats ahead of the May 26 candidate filing deadline.

Del. Elizabeth Guzman, for instance, announced Wednesday morning that she would seek the Democratic nomination in the new 7th District, which already features a large roster of candidates. Whoever wins the Aug. 4 Democratic primary for the 7th, as well as in several other revamped seats, will be in a strong position to prevail in the general election.

Below, we go seat-by-seat to assess where candidates are already running. We also include how each district would have voted in the 2024 presidential election, based on data from the Redistricting Data Hub uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App. You can also find a summary in this chart​​.

VA-01 (52-45 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman announced in February that he would seek reelection in the new 1st District, which would be the natural successor to his current 7th District. Vindman will be favored against any Republican opponents in this new constituency, which extends from Northern Virginia south to Richmond’s suburbs.

VA-02 (52-47 Harris)

While Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans’ 2nd District is still based in the Virginia Beach area, mapmakers transformed it from a seat Donald Trump narrowly carried into one Kamala Harris would have taken by 5 percentage points.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria, who Kiggans unseated in a close 2022 general election, launched her rematch campaign last year just as Democrats were planning the remap. A few other Democrats are also running, but they’ve all struggled to raise the kind of money necessary to wage a strong campaign against the well-known and well-funded Luria.

VA-05 (53-45 Harris)

Democrat Shannon Taylor, the commonwealth’s attorney for Henrico County, had been waging a challenge against Republican Rep. Rob Wittman in the 1st District, but she said in February she’d instead run in the 5th.

Taylor currently faces no serious intraparty opposition in the 5th, which now includes part of the Richmond suburbs, as she waits to learn if Republicans will field a strong candidate against her. GOP Rep. John McGuire could run here, though his home was drawn into the 7th.

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VA-06 (51-48 Harris)

Two prominent Democrats have already converged on the new 6th, which now includes Staunton, Charlottesville, and Lynchburg.

Former Rep. Tom Perriello, who scored a major upset victory in 2008 before losing a close reelection contest two years later, says he’ll wage a comeback campaign here. Journalist Beth Macy, who wrote the 2018 nonfiction bestseller “Dopesick” about the opioid crisis, also will seek the Democratic nod.

Republican Rep. Ben Cline, a four-term incumbent who has represented safely red versions of the 6th during his entire tenure, will need to decide if he’ll try to defend what’s now a light blue seat. Cline could instead switch over to the heavily Republican 9th, though he’d be in for a tough primary battle against Rep. Morgan Griffith.

VA-07 (53-45 Harris)

Del. Elizabeth Guzman, who would be the first Hispanic person to represent Virginia in Congress, announced Wednesday that she was entering an already packed Democratic primary for the 7th, which includes part of Northern Virginia and communities to the south like Culpeper.

Guzman, who lost to Eugene Vindman in the 2024 primary for the old 7th, joins fellow Dels. Dan Helmer and Adele McClure. The field also includes former federal prosecutor J.P. Cooney; attorney Dorothy McAuliffe, the wife of former Gov. Terry McAuliffe; state Sen. Saddam Salim; and Olivia Troye, a former national security adviser to Mike Pence who left the White House in 2020 to advocate against Trump’s reelection.

McGuire, as noted above, could potentially run here, though this district is considerably different from the conservative constituency he won in 2024.

VA-08 (58-40 Harris)

Democratic Rep. Don Beyer remains well-positioned to win reelection in the revamped 8th, which now sprawls from Arlington and Alexandria to just south of Yorktown. His most serious intraparty opponent appears to be Navy veteran Jason Knapp, who initially planned to oppose Wittman but reiterated Tuesday evening that he’d take on Beyer.

Beyer finished March with a $755,000 to $265,000 cash-on-hand lead against Knapp, who has self-funded a large portion of his campaign. A few other Democrats are also opposing Beyer, but none have brought in much money.

It’s possible that Beyer, who has represented a safely blue seat since he was first elected in 2014, will face opposition from one of his colleagues from the other side of the aisle. If Wittman, who was left with no good places to run, decides not to retire and instead wages a long-shot bid to remain in Congress, he’d likely do so in the 8th, which includes his residence.

VA-09 (74-25 Trump)

The 9th, in the southwestern corner of the state, would become Virginia’s only GOP safe haven, and longtime Republican Rep. Morgan Griffith would be sure to run here. It remains to be seen if Cline will try to remain in Congress by taking on his colleague in the primary, or if Griffith will be the only Republican in the state’s delegation to have an easy reelection campaign.

VA-11 (55-42 Harris)

Democratic Rep. James Walkinshaw, who was elected last year in a special election, faces a notable primary opponent, but he remains the favorite.

Retired Space Force Col. Bree Fram, who was ousted from the military last year because of Donald Trump’s ban on trans service members, said in January she’d “run in the district where my house is.” Fram, who has since confirmed she’d take on Walkinshaw, was the subject of a recent profile in Politico detailing what she acknowledged would be a difficult campaign.

Walkinshaw ended March with close to $800,000 banked to defend himself in the new 11th, which is situated in Northern Virginia. Fram, for her part, had a little less than $140,000 available.

The 3rd, 4th, and 10th districts would all remain solidly Democratic, and their current incumbents are all likely to seek reelection, without much in the way of GOP opposition.

House

FL-20

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned from Congress Tuesday afternoon just before the House Ethics Committee was scheduled to announce whether it would recommend her expulsion.

Federal authorities indicted Cherfilus-McCormick last year for allegedly using stolen taxpayer funds to finance her victorious 2021 primary campaign for Florida’s safely blue 20th Congressional District. While Cherfilus-McCormick’s trial has been delayed until February, the Ethics Committee last month found her guilty of 25 counts of misconduct related to the same affair.

But Cherfilus-McCormick, who was facing multiple primary opponents in her South Florida constituency, decided to quit before she could be forced out.

“This was not a fair process,” Cherfilus-McCormick wrote in her statement announcing her resignation, which took effect immediately. “By going forward with this process while a criminal indictment is pending, the Committee prevented me from defending myself.”

Cherfilus-McCormick’s departure both removes her from the Committee’s jurisdiction and leaves the 20th District, which includes inland areas around Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach, without a representative for the second time in half a decade. Cherfilus-McCormick herself was elected in January of 2022 to replace Democratic Rep. Alcee Hastings, a veteran congressman who died the previous April.

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, who chose to keep the seat vacant for nearly a year after Hastings’ death, has yet to say when, or even if, there will be a special election for the remainder of Cherfilus-McCormick’s term.

There will, however, be a busy race to succeed Cherfilus-McCormick in the next Congress.

Former Broward County Commissioner Dale Holness, who lost the 2021 special primary to Cherfilus-McCormick by all of five votes before badly losing their rematch the next year, and perennial candidate Elijah Manley each began challenging the incumbent last year.

They were joined in February by Luther Campbell, the famed rapper who co-founded the hip-hop group 2 Live Crew, and physician Rudy Moise, who unsuccessfully ran for the House in both 2010 and 2012.

The deadline for U.S. House candidates to file to run isn’t until June 12, so other prospective candidates have several weeks to decide whether to join them in the Aug. 18 primary.

Cherfilus-McCormick’s resignation, which came the week after Democrat Eric Swalwell of California and Republican Tony Gonzales of Texas each stepped down following separate scandals involving sexual misconduct, leaves the GOP caucus with a 218-213 majority. The final vacant seat was held by Rep. Doug LaMalfa, a California Republican who died in January.

While California Gov. Gavin Newsom has scheduled special elections to replace LaMalfa and Swalwell, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has yet to act.

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NY-04

Former Assemblywoman Taylor Darling said this week she was ending her longshot primary campaign against Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen in New York’s 4th District.

Gillen will likely face Republican Jeanine Driscoll, who serves as receiver of taxes for the Town of Hempstead, in the general election for this competitive constituency on Long Island. Driscoll only entered the race last week after local GOP leaders spent over a year waiting in vain for former Rep. Anthony D’Esposito to seek a rematch against Gillen.

​​NY-21

Donald Trump has backed Anthony Constantino, a wealthy sticker magnate whom New York Republicans fear could jeopardize their prospects of holding Rep. Elise Stefanik’s House seat.

Constantino faces Assemblyman Robert Smullen, who has the endorsement of the state Republican Party, in the June 23 primary for the 21st District in the northernmost part of the state. Smullen, though, is already assured a spot in the general election thanks to his support from the New York Conservative Party, and there’s reason to think he’d use it to continue his campaign if he loses the primary to Constantino.

The Watertown Daily Times’ Alex Gault wrote earlier this month that Conservative leaders “specifically asked that Smullen keep their party line no matter what happens with the GOP primary.” Smullen himself also responded to Trump’s decision to endorse Constantino by telling reporters, “I’ll be on the ballot in November on the Conservative line and I’m confident that I’m going to win the Republican primary.”

Democrats, meanwhile, have largely consolidated behind dairy farmer Blake Gendebien. Gendebien, who began raising money in late 2024 for a special election to replace Stefanik that never ended up taking place, finished March with close to $2.5 million stockpiled for this fall’s general election.

All of this has given Republicans an unwelcome flashback to the 2009 special election for a previous incarnation of this seat, when Republicans and Conservatives fielded rival candidates, paving the way for a historic Democratic flip.

State law required local GOP leaders, rather than primary voters, to choose their nominee in the contest to replace John McHugh, a moderate Republican who resigned to become Barack Obama’s secretary of the Army, in what was then numbered the 23rd District. They opted for Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava, another centrist who initially seemed well-positioned to defend a historically Republican seat that Obama carried the previous year.

One important organization, though, was unwilling to fall into line. While the Conservative Party almost always nominates the same candidate as the Republicans—something it’s able to do because of New York’s unusual fusion voting system—its leadership decided instead to give its spot on the ballot to accountant Doug Hoffman.

What followed was a strange three-way general election between Scozzafava, Hoffman, and Democrat Bill Owens. Things became even more chaotic during the final weekend when Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens.

Owens ended up beating Hoffman 48-46 as Scozzafava secured the remaining 6%, a win that made him the first Democrat to represent this area in the House since the 19th century. But while Owens would go on to win two full terms, his decision to retire ahead of the 2014 elections helped propel Stefanik to an easy victory in the general election for what was now the 21st District.

Trump’s strength in rural areas helped rapidly transform Stefanik’s constituency into solidly red turf for the next decade. Trump in 2024 carried this district in a 60-39 blowout, while Stefanik had no trouble winning what would turn out to be her final term.

Trump soon announced that he was nominating Stefanik to become his ambassador to the United Nations, and several Republicans stepped forward to run in what they believed was an imminent special election to replace her in a solidly red seat.

One of those Republicans was Constantino, who was the subject of a 2024 New York Times story detailing his feud with city leaders in his sticker company’s hometown of Amsterdam over a giant illuminated pro-Trump sign he placed atop his headquarters that the mayor said violated municipal codes.

But Constantino, who told Republican leaders that he’d run in 2026 whether or not they nominated him for the special, quickly made more enemies on the right.

Constantino would later post audio of what he said was a call with Conservative Party head Gerard Kassar where Kassar was heard saying, “Telling us that you’re going to run in November is just a bigger reason why we intend to kill you … If you get knocked out of the special, then you tell us you’re going to run in November, then we’re going to do everything in our power to make sure you’re destroyed before you get to November.”

“Was it hyperbole? I don’t know,” Constantino said last summer after sharing the recording. “My aide’s brake lines were subsequently cut.” Kassar subsequently filed a defamation lawsuit against Constantino that has yet to be resolved.

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Constantino made those comments well after Trump pulled Stefanik’s nomination amid escalating Republican worries about their ability to win special elections in red districts. Stefanik went on to announce last November that she would challenge Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, and while she ended her campaign the next month, Stefanik stuck to her plan to leave the House.

Smullen and Constantino are now facing off in a nasty and expensive primary where Constantino has continued to antagonize just about everyone. Constantino was ejected from a local Republican meeting in February after he repeatedly heckled his rival, and he responded to the state GOP’s subsequent decision to endorse Smullen by promising to “clean out the Republican committees because they are losers.”

Constantino’s vast wealth, though, has given him a huge financial advantage. Constantino, who is self-funding virtually his entire campaign, ended March with a roughly $3.5 million to $960,000 cash-on-hand advantage over Smullen.

Constantino got an even bigger boost Tuesday when Trump told his Truth Social followers, “Anthony is strongly supported by many of the most Highly Respected MAGA Warriors in our Movement, including Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Roger Stone!”

Smullen, though, believes that Constantino’s deep pockets and endorsement from Trump will only take him so far. Smullen told reporters that Trump only snubbed him because of Stone, whom he called a “consultant [who] got to the president, somebody who is being paid by my opponent.”

“Anthony Constantino is not the candidate voters in NY-21 support,” Smullen also said in a statement. “He has proven he is mentally unfit to serve in Congress.”

WI-07

Wealthy attorney Paul Wassgren announced Tuesday that he was dropping out of the August Republican primary for Wisconsin’s open 7th District, a conservative constituency in the northwestern corner of the state.

The GOP frontrunner is Michael Alfonso, a podcaster producer whose main qualification is that he’s the son-in-law of Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and Fox host Rachel Campos-Duffy. Donald Trump endorsed Alfonso in a January Truth Social post that gushed about Alfonso’s in-laws but said little about the actual candidate.

The Republican field also includes investment adviser Kevin Hermening, who has self-funded much of his campaign, and public relations professional Jessi Ebben, who lost a primary in 2020 for the neighboring 3rd District. The eventual nominee will be favored to replace Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who is running for governor.

Other Races

AZ Corporation Commission

Republican state Rep. David Marshall has ended his campaign for a seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission and resigned from the legislature to accept an appointment as Navajo County recorder.

Marshall and fellow state Rep. Ralph Heap, who are each allied with the state’s branch of the far-right Freedom Caucus, were running as a team for seats on the powerful body that regulates utilities across the state. The pair were hoping to defeat Commissioners Nick Myer and Kevin Thompson, whom they argued failed to do enough to advance Donald Trump’s pro-coal agenda, in the July GOP primary.

But while there are serious questions about whether Marshall is allowed to become Navajo County recorder— the state constitution prohibits lawmakers from holding state or county posts “during the term for which he shall have been elected”—he didn’t wait for them to be answered before filing paperwork to end his campaign for the commission.

Heap is now running solo against Myer and Thompson. The trio will compete on one statewide ballot, and voters can vote for up to two options. The two contenders with the most votes will advance to the November general election, making it possible that any mixed-and-matched set will move forward.

The winners will take on Democrats Jonathon Hill and Clara Pratte, who face no intraparty opposition, in the fall.

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Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: Echelon Insights for NetChoice:

  • Ashley Moody (R-inc): 50, Alex Vindman (D): 43.

  • NetChoice is a trade association whose membership includes major companies like Amazon and Google.

• GA-Sen: Echelon:

  • Jon Ossoff (D-inc): 52, Buddy Carter (R): 43.

  • Ossoff (D-inc): 51, Mike Collins (R): 44.

  • The poll did not test Derek Dooley, the third major Republican candidate.

• IA-Sen: Echelon:

  • Zach Wahls (D): 46, Ashley Hinson (R): 44.

  • Josh Turek (D): 46, Hinson (R): 45.

• ME-Sen: Echelon:

  • Graham Platner (D): 51, Susan Collins (R-inc): 45.

  • Janet Mills (D): 48, Collins (R-inc): 46.

• OH-Sen: Echelon:

  • Jon Husted (R-inc): 51, Sherrod Brown (D): 45.

• FL-Gov: Echelon:

  • Byron Donalds (R): 49, David Jolly (D): 43.

  • Donalds (R): 48, Jerry Demings (D): 44.

• GA-Gov: Echelon:

  • Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 49, Burt Jones (R): 43.

  • Bottoms (D): 49, Rick Jackson (R): 43.

  • Bottoms (D): 46, Brad Raffensperger (R): 44.

  • The poll did not test any other potential Democratic candidates.

• IA-Gov (R): Victory Enterprises for Randy Feenstra:

  • Randy Feenstra: 41, Adam Steen: 9, Zach Lahn: 8, Brad Sherman: 5, Eddie Andrews: 5.

• IA-Gov: Echelon:

  • Rob Sand (D): 51, Feenstra (R): 39.

• OH-Gov: Echelon:

  • Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 49, Amy Acton (D): 44.

• OR-Gov (R): Nelson Research:

  • Christine Drazan: 37, Chris Dudley: 18, Ed Diehl: 18, David Medina: 7, Danielle Bethell: 2.

  • Nelson Research says it did not conduct this poll for a client.

• CA-14 (top-two primary): David Binder Research for the Working Families Party (pro-Aisha Wahab):

  • Aisha Wahab (D): 29, Wendy Huang (R): 9, Melissa Hernandez (D): 9, Dena Maldonado (R): 8, Matt Ortega (D): 2, Rakhi Israni (D): 2, other candidates 1% or less, undecided: 35.

  • The poll was conducted April 1-4.

• CA-48 (top-two primary): SurveyUSA for KGTV and the San Diego Union-Tribune:

  • Jim Desmond (R): 25, Kevin Patrick O’Neil (R): 13, Ammar Campa-Najjar (D): 12, Marni Von Wilpert (D): 6, Mike Schaefer (D): 6, Corinna Contreras (D): 4, Brandon Riker (D): 4, Abel Chavez (D): 3, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 24.

• NJ-08 (D): Center for Strategic Politics for Mussab Ali:

  • Rob Menendez (inc): 42, Mussab Ali: 27.

Editor’s Note: In our last Digest we incorrectly identified businesswoman Holly Adams as a businessman. It also incorrectly identified Betty Yee’s former position: Yee served as California’s controller, not comptroller.

Leading Off

KY-Gov

Kentucky Lt. Gov. Jacqueline Coleman on Monday became the first major candidate from either party to enter next year’s race to replace Gov. Andy Beshear, a fellow Democrat who cannot seek a third term in 2027.

“I’ve been a high school civics teacher, an assistant principal, and a basketball coach,” Coleman says in her launch video before she focuses on her tenure as Beshear’s second-in-command.

“Kentucky’s economy is leading the nation,” she continues. “I’m proud that the Beshear-Coleman administration has created nearly 70,000 jobs and generated over $45 billion in investment in the commonwealth. One of the things I’ve learned from Andy: Take good care of people, and the jobs will follow.”

Coleman used her announcement speech later that day to highlight how she’d only be the second woman to lead the Bluegrass State. The first was the late Martha Layne Collins, a Democrat who was elected in 1983 but couldn’t run again because governors were prohibited from seeking reelection. (Voters in 1992 narrowly approved an amendment to allow their chief executive to claim a second consecutive term.)

But while Coleman, who was Beshear’s running mate during his successful 2019 and 2023 campaigns, is the only other Democrat who holds statewide office in conservative Kentucky, she may still face serious intraparty opposition from another member of the Beshear administration.

“[P]eople back home know you can’t keep a Kentucky boy out of the fight when the future of our state is on the line,” former state Rep. Rocky Adkins, a one-time majority and minority leader who now serves as Beshear’s senior advisor, said in a statement following Coleman’s entry. “I’m thinking carefully about what comes next and what’s best for Kentucky and will have more to say when the time is right.”

This would not be the first time that Adkins and Coleman have been pitted against one another. Candidates for governor choose their running mate before the primary, and in 2019, the team of Beshear and Coleman scored a 38-32 victory over Adkins and Stephanie Horne.

Beshear went on to narrowly unseat GOP Gov. Matt Bevin, who had repeatedly infuriated voters during his four years in office, and the Democrat secured reelection in 2023 by fending off Republican Daniel Cameron.

Several Republicans have expressed interest in running to retake the governor’s office, and one prospective candidate is already warning that Beshear’s absence from the ballot alone won’t guarantee victory.

“Jacqueline Coleman is a strong candidate,” Secretary of State Michael Adams tweeted Monday. “If Republicans don’t nominate our best vote-getter, appeal beyond our base, and focus on improving Kentuckians’ lives, we will have a third term of Andy Beshear.”

Adams previously told the Lexington Herald-Leader at the beginning of the year that he’d decide sometime after this year’s primaries conclude on May 19.

Rep. James Comer, by contrast, said in January he’d “make a decision sometime around December” about a second campaign for governor. Comer lost the 2015 primary to Bevin by all of 83 votes, but he quickly rebounded by winning a spot in Congress the following year.

State Senate President Robert Stivers has also been talked about as a possible candidate, including by the Democrat he wants to replace.

The GOP-dominated legislature this month overrode Beshear’s veto on a bill that allows state legislators running for statewide office to use the money they’d already raised for legislative races to fund their new venture. The governor argued this legislation was meant to benefit Stivers in particular and give him an advantage over rivals like Comer, who would need to start their fundraising from scratch.

“Is he afraid I’ll run against him, against something?” Stivers responded last week when asked for comment by the Kentucky Lantern. He added, “I’m not ruling anything out, but I did not ask that that provision be put in there.”

Rep. Thomas Massie, finally, says he’d be interested in running for Beshear’s job if he wins his expensive renomination battle next month against a Donald Trump-backed rival.

The GOP iconoclast told a group of University of Louisville students two weeks ago, “If I lose on May 19, I am not doing any more government ever … It’s a sign from God or the people or both that I should go back to the farm.” Massie, though, said that if he defeats intraparty foe Ed Gallrein, he “would consider” running for governor.

The Downballot

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Democrats kicked Eric Swalwell to the curb lightning-quick, and it’s a very good thing he’s gone. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the brave women who came forward to accuse Swalwell of sexual assault and wound up ending his political career. We also assess the fallout from his departure—and ho…

Listen now

17 days ago · 3 likes · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Senate

GA-Sen

Rep. Buddy Carter has launched the first negative TV ad from anyone ahead of next month’s GOP primary, though he’s focusing on just one of his two main intraparty rivals.

“[W]hile Trump and Buddy Carter were protecting our wallets, [Rep.] Mike Collins was abusing them,” the narrator says. “Collins is under federal investigation for misusing taxpayer funds to benefit himself and his cronies. We just can’t trust or afford Mike Collins.”

Carter debuted this ad five months after the House Ethics Committee said that it was investigating Collins and his chief of staff, Brandon Phillips. While the panel did not initially disclose what it was looking into, the Office of Congressional Conduct later said it had “substantial reason to believe that Rep. Collins used congressional resources for unofficial or otherwise unauthorized purposes,” including allegations that Phillips hired his girlfriend for an essentially no-show job as a paid intern.

Collins, who has blasted the allegations as “bogus,” faces Carter and Derek Dooley, a former University of Tennessee football coach, in the May 19 GOP primary to take on Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.

The handful of polls released this year have shown Collins well ahead of his intraparty rivals, but nowhere close to the majority he’d need to avoid a runoff on June 16. Those surveys also have found Carter and Dooley, who is backed by Gov. Brian Kemp, in a close battle for the second runoff spot.

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IA-Sen

VoteVets says it has now spent $4.5 million on commercials to promote state Rep. Josh Turek in the June 2 Democratic primary for Senate in Iowa, including a $900,000 ad buy this week declaring he’ll stand up to Donald Trump.

VoteVets and Turek, who used his opening TV commercial this week to pledge he’ll take on “Washington’s corruption,” currently have the airwaves to themselves six weeks ahead of Turek’s contest against state Sen. Zach Wahls. Wahls has led in every poll, though the last survey was finished just as VoteVets was beginning its ad campaign.

MA-Sen

An organization backing Rep. Seth Moulton began airing ads last week portraying Sen. Ed Markey, whom Moulton is trying to defeat in the September Democratic primary, as a longtime politician who doesn’t know that it’s time to leave office.

An actor portraying a doctor warns the audience about “Chronic Reelection Disorder,” a fictional disease he says Markey is afflicted with. “Symptoms include being stuck in the past, losing touch, and not being up for today’s fights.”

MA Progress Action, the group behind the ad, did not answer the Boston Globe’s inquiries about how much it was spending against Markey, who has served in Congress since 1976. The organization also did not disclose who was funding it.

Moulton, who at 47 is more than three decades the 79-year-old senator’s junior, began his campaign last year by saying Markey was “too old” to keep representing Massachusetts. The incumbent and his allies, though, have pushed back by arguing that Moulton is too conservative to replace an ardent progressive like Markey.

While there’s still over four months to go before the primary, Moulton’s campaign faces its first key test far earlier than that.

The state Democratic convention will take place on May 29 and 30, and candidates need to win the votes of at least 15% of attendees to even make it to the primary. There’s no question Markey will easily clear this hurdle, but the more moderate Moulton isn’t assured a spot on the September ballot.

Governors

AZ-Gov

Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs finished March with more than three times as much money as her two prospective Republican opponents and a wealthy third-party candidate put together.

Hobbs, a Democrat, ended the first quarter of the year with close to $7.2 million stockpiled, compared to the $1.1 million that Republican Rep. Andy Biggs had in the bank. But while Biggs is far behind the incumbent, his war chest still dwarfs the $86,000 that fellow Rep. David Schweikert had available.

Schweikert’s decision to campaign for governor was unwelcome news to House Republicans, who no longer have an incumbent running to defend his swingy 1st Congressional District. But while he argues he’d be a stronger nominee for Republicans than Biggs, a hardliner who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, polls show Schweikert badly trailing his colleague.

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Hobbs and the eventual GOP nominee will also face Hugh Lytle, a healthcare businessman who is a member of the No Labels Party of Arizona. (The group changed its name to the Arizona Independent Party, but a state judge ruled last month it had not taken the proper steps to relabel itself.) Lytle has self-funded $1 million to jumpstart his new venture, and he ended March with just over $800,000 on hand.

Lytle, whose father founded the health insurance giant Anthem, has framed his campaign as an alternative to both major parties and their ideas. Lytle’s own proposals include “a new state sponsored AI University that provides an amazing education for just $99 per semester.”

CA-Gov

Former state Controller Betty Yee announced Monday that she was exiting the June top-two primary for governor of California. Yee, who acknowledged she was struggling to raise money or earn much support in the polls, did not endorse any of the other Democrats still in the race.

House

NY-11

Electrician Allison Ziogas announced Monday that she was leaving the Democratic primary to face Republican Rep. Nicole Malliotakis, a decision she says she made for health reasons.

Ziogas’ departure leaves former New York Police Department Officer Michael DeCillis as the only Democrat seeking to flip New York’s 11th District, which includes Staten Island and southwestern Brooklyn. Both Democrats, however, have struggled to raise the kind of money necessary to put this constituency, which backed Donald Trump 61-37 in 2024, in play.

DeCillis ended March with less than $30,000 on hand, which was less than half of what Ziogas had available. Malliotakis, for her part, had $2.6 million stockpiled to defend herself.

OH-01

Dentist Steven Erbeck said Monday that he was leaving the May 5 Republican primary to take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman, a departure that came the week after Donald Trump endorsed Air Force veteran Eric Conroy.

Erbeck, who funded a large portion of his campaign, enjoyed a roughly $470,000 to $370,000 cash on hand advantage over Conroy at the end of March. Conroy, though, has considerably more money than the only other notable Republican running for Ohio’s 1st District: businesswoman Holly Adams, who has self-funded most of her campaign, finished with about $190,000 banked.

Landsman had almost $3 million available to defend a Cincinnati-based constituency that became more conservative after the state’s bipartisan redistricting commission approved a new map last year. While the last incarnation of the 1st District backed Kamala Harris 53-46, Trump would have carried the new version 51-48.

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PA-07

Democratic candidate Bob Brooks shared a Facebook meme saying “the problem is not guns” one day after the 2019 mass shooting in El Paso, the Washington Post reported on Monday.

The local blog Lehigh Valley Ramblings first revealed last August that Brooks, who is the president of the Pennsylvania Professional Firefighters Association, had reposted a meme showing actor Clint Eastwood holding a firearm.

“The problem is not guns,” read the text. “It’s hearts without God, homes without discipline, schools without prayer and courtrooms without justice.” That image featured the logo of the Three Percenters, a far-right antigovernment group.

The post had received relatively little attention until Monday, when the Post published a story on Brooks’ social media history. The paper also reported that he’d called former NFL player Colin Kaepernick a “douchebag” in 2019 and responded to George Floyd’s murder the following year by writing, “Wanting change within the police departments to weed out the bad cops is fine. But please remember the good ones.”

“Politics is nasty – a bunch of DC insiders who don’t want more working people in office are selectively digging up years-old Facebook posts,” Brooks, who is competing in the May 19 primary to take on Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, said in a statement in response to the Post’s article. He added, “I’ve shared a few stupid things over the years, and for that I am sorry.”

Brooks’ campaign separately told the Post that he “wishes he never made” his post about guns, and that he had “zero awareness” that the logo was associated with the Three Percenters.

Brooks has the support of Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, and the progressive Working Families Party in his campaign to flip Pennsylvania’s 7th District, a competitive seat in the Lehigh Valley. A spokesperson for Shapiro said the governor would continue to back Brooks, while the WFP praised him for having “​​a background that is really helpful for where the Democrats need to go these days.”

Brooks faces three opponents in next month’s primary: former federal prosecutor Ryan Crosswell, former Northampton County Executive Lamont McClure, and former utility company supervisor Carol Obando-Derstine.

Obituaries

George Ariyoshi

Former Hawaii Gov. George Ariyoshi, a Democrat who was the first Asian American governor of any state, died Sunday at the age of 100.

Ariyoshi was serving as lieutenant governor in 1973 when Gov. George Burns, who was battling cancer, became too ill to carry out his duties. Ariyoshi would serve out the rest of Burns’ tenure as acting governor before winning the office in his own right in 1974, and his service through 1986 made him the state’s longest-serving leader.

The Honolulu Star-Advertiser has more on Ariyoshi’s lengthy and groundbreaking career in its obituary.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): The Tarrance Group for Alabama Strong (pro-Steve Marshall):

  • Barry Moore: 28, Steve Marshall: 27, Jared Hudson: 24.

• MS-Sen: Impact Research for the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund:

  • Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-inc): 42, Scott Colom (D): 39, Ty Pinkins (I): 6.

  • July: 51-38 Hyde-Smith.

  • The SPLC Action Fund has endorsed several Democratic candidates in other races in the South, though it has not made an endorsement in this race.

• OH-Sen: Bowling Green State University/YouGov:

  • Jon Husted (R-inc): 50, Sherrod Brown (D): 47.

  • Oct.: 49-48 Brown.

  • The school asked respondents if they’d prefer “someone else,” but did not include undecided as an option.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Gudelunas Strategies for California is Not For Sale (anti-Tom Steyer):

  • Steve Hilton (R): 20, Xavier Becerra (D): 15, Tom Steyer (D): 15, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Katie Porter (D): 13, Matt Mahan (D): 6, other candidates 3% or less.

  • Unreleased early April poll: Hilton (R): 22, Eric Swalwell (D): 18, Bianco (R): 13, Steyer (D): 12, Mahan (D): 5, Becerra (D): 4.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Kreate Strategies:

  • Hilton (R): 18, Steyer (D): 16, Bianco (R): 14, Becerra (D): 10, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 4, other candidates 3% or less.

  • March: Hilton (R): 19, Steyer (D): 13, Swalwell (D): 13, Bianco (R): 10, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 4.

  • Krate says neither poll was “sponsored by any campaign or outside organization.”

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Evitarus for the California Democratic Party:

  • Hilton (R): 16, Bianco (R): 14, Becerra (D): 13, Steyer (D): 13, Porter (D): 10, Mahan (D): 5, others 2% or less, undecided: 20.

  • Early April: Hilton (R): 14, Bianco (R): 14, Swalwell (D): 12, Steyer (D): 11, Porter (D): 7, Mahan (D): 4, Becerra (D): 4, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 4.

• MI-Gov (R): OnMessage for John James:

  • John James: 41, Perry Johnson: 18, Mike Cox: 7, Alec Nesbitt: 5.

  • March: James: 37, Johnson: 19, Cox: 10, Nesbitt: 4.

• OH-Gov (R): Bowling Green/YouGov: Vivek Ramaswamy (R): 48, Amy Acton (D): 47.

  • Oct.: 50-47 Ramaswamy.

• RI-Gov: Opinion Diagnostics for Ken Block:

  • Dan McKee (D-inc): 28, Ken Block (I): 20, Aaron Guckian (R): 15.

  • Helena Foulkes (D): 33, Block (I): 18, Guckian (R): 16.

• SD-Gov (R): Mason-Dixon for South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota:

  • Dusty Johnson: 34, Jon Hansen: 18, Toby Doeden: 17, Larry Rhoden (inc): 17.

  • Oct.: Johnson: 28, Rhoden (inc): 27, Doeden: 15, Hansen: 10.

• NY-13 (D): Upswing Research & Strategy for Darializa Avila Chevalier:

  • Adriano Espaillat (inc): 42, Darializa Avila Chevalier: 28.

  • The poll was conducted March 25-30.

• OH-09 (R): J.L. Partners:

  • Derek Merrin: 33, Josh Williams: 14, Madison Sheahan: 10, Alea Nadeem: 4, undecided: 40.

• SD-AL (R): Mason-Dixon:

  • Marty Jackley: 68, James Bialota: 12.

Correction: This piece incorrectly identified businesswoman Holly Adams as a businessman. This piece also incorrectly identified Betty Yee’s former position: Yee served as California’s controller, not comptroller.

Leading Off

Shortly before the end of the first fundraising quarter of 2026, we posed five questions about the midterms that the new numbers would help us answer.

Now that we have data for every noteworthy candidate for the Senate and House assembled into our must-have charts, we can answer each of these questions in detail and shed new light on this year’s elections.

1) Did two new Democratic Senate challengers open with a bang?

Oh yes.

Former Rep. Mary Peltola hauled in $8.6 million during the opening quarter of her campaign to unseat Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska, while former National Security Council advisor Alex Vindman raised $8.2 million for his bid against GOP Sen. Ashley Moody in Florida.

Sullivan was well behind with $1.7 million raised. Moody likewise trailed badly, taking in $2.6 million.

Both incumbents still maintained a modest lead in cash on hand thanks to their long head starts in fundraising. Sullivan finished March with a $7.1 million to $5.7 million advantage over Peltola, while Moody had a $7.1 million to $6.4 million edge against Vindman. The challengers’ strong opening hauls, though, give them reason to be optimistic that they’ll soon overtake their respective opponents.

Both Peltola and Vindman can also focus on what will still be tough general election battles rather than worry about needing to spend huge sums to win their primaries. Peltola faces no serious intraparty opposition, while Florida state Rep. Angie Nixon, the only other notable Democrat challenging Moody, finished last month with just under $180,000 in the bank.

2) Did a major endorsement and strong polling help a Minnesota Democrat reduce a big fundraising gap?

While Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan’s fundraising improved during the first three months of 2026, she still has far less money available than Rep. Angie Craig, her main rival in the August Democratic primary for Minnesota’s open Senate seat.

Flanagan raised $1.4 million, an improvement on the $980,000 she took in during the final three months of 2025. This was also the first fundraising quarter in which Flanagan, who began running in February of last year, exceeded $1 million.

But Craig, who raised $2.5 million during the most recent quarter after taking in $2 million the previous quarter, remains dominant in the money race. The congresswoman ended March with a $4.9 million to $1.1 million cash lead.

Despite her huge financial advantage, though, Craig is the underdog in the primary for the seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith. Both sides released polls in the first weeks of the year showing Flanagan leading, and Smith endorsed the lieutenant governor the following month. There’s been no fresh data, however, since January.

On the Republican side, meanwhile, Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster who launched a bid in January, far outraised her intraparty rivals as she tries to score an upset win in this light blue state.

Tafoya, who has the NRSC’s support, took in $2 million during her opening quarter and finished with $1.9 million banked. Navy SEAL veteran Adam Schwarze, by contrast, had just over $220,000 on hand, while none of the other GOP candidates had six figures in their respective campaign accounts.

3) Does the oldest Republican in the House have to sweat his primary?

Probably not.

Rep. Hal Rogers, who is seeking a 24th term at the age of 88, faces veteran GOP operative Kevin Smith, who’s in his early 40s and once interned for Rogers, in the May 19 primary for Kentucky’s deep-red 5th District. Smith, though, has struggled to convince donors that it’s time for change.

The challenger raised less than $90,000 during his opening quarter and loaned himself around $20,000 more. Rogers, for his part, took in more than $240,000. The congressman, who has represented eastern Kentucky since 1981, ended March with about $1.1 million on hand, compared to little over $80,000 for Smith.

4) Who has the upper hand in the packed primary for Steny Hoyer’s seat?

Former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn once again rallied liberal donors across the country and far outraised each of the 23 other Democrats running in the June 23 primary for Maryland’s blue 5th District.

Dunn, who rose to prominence for his defense of the Capitol on Jan. 6, announced his campaign in early February and raised more than $2 million during the following two months. The haul wasn’t a surprise, though, as Dunn proved to be a prodigious fundraiser during his unsuccessful 2024 campaign for the neighboring 3rd District. He finished the most recent quarter with $1.45 million banked.

One well-heeled opponent, though, had slightly more money available. Healthcare executive Quincy Bareebe, who’s been self-funding almost her entire campaign, loaned herself another $2.3 million during this quarter and had about $1.5 million on hand.

Bareebe, like Dunn, unsuccessfully ran for Congress two years ago, but her campaign attracted far less attention. Though she loaned herself a little more than $200,000 for a primary challenge against Hoyer, she went on to lose in a 72-10 landslide.

Hoyer, for his part, is backing a third candidate. The retiring incumbent has endorsed Del. Adrian Boafo, who raised $460,000 and had about $400,000 on hand. While that’s far less than what either Dunn or Bareebe has at their disposal, Boafo’s institutional support could give him an advantage in this packed race.

Five other Democrats ended the quarter with six-figure sums in their campaign accounts. Prince George’s County Councilmember Wala Blegay leads this cohort with just over $300,000 on hand. She was followed by public safety consultant Harry Jarin, state Sen. Arthur Ellis, former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, and Del. Nicole Williams.

5) How much danger does a far-right favorite pose to a Utah congresswoman?

Money isn’t everything in politics, but former state Rep. Phil Lyman seems determined to find out if it’s anything.

Lyman’s campaign told the Salt Lake Tribune he made a “deliberate choice” not to ask for contributions during the first weeks of his campaign to deny renomination to GOP Rep. Celeste Maloy. His team also notified the FEC that he would not be submitting a fundraising report this quarter because he did not raise or spend enough to hit the minimum threshold that obligates candidates to file disclosures, which is just $5,000.

Lyman says he’s instead focused on winning enough support at the GOP’s convention on April 25 to make the June primary ballot, with a spokesman saying, “The race is a convention race on April 25, and his focus has been entirely on delegates, not donors.”

Maloy, for her part, raised a little more than $300,000 and had about $460,000 banked to defend herself.

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The Downballot

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Democrats kicked Eric Swalwell to the curb lightning-quick, and it’s a very good thing he’s gone. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the brave women who came forward to accuse Swalwell of sexual assault and wound up ending his political career. We also assess the fallout from his departure—and ho…

Listen now

17 days ago · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Senate

CO-Sen

State Sen. Julie Gonzales received an endorsement from the Colorado AFL-CIO on Thursday in her uphill campaign to defeat Sen. John Hickenlooper in the June 30 Democratic primary.

Gonzales launched her bid in December by calling for Democrats to replace Hickenlooper, who has cultivated a moderate image during his long career in Colorado politics, with an “insurgent progressive.”

The challenger, however, has struggled to raise the money necessary to broadcast her message. New campaign finance reports show that she ended March with just over $110,000 in the bank, while Hickenlooper had more than $4 million at his disposal. Third-party groups have yet to spend money to promote or attack either candidate.

The winner, though, should have no trouble against state Sen. Mark Baisley, who has the GOP field to himself. Baisley had a meager $6,000 available (not a typo) for his long-shot effort in this increasingly Democratic-friendly state.

Governors

WY-Gov

Republican Gov. Mark Gordon finally said Thursday that he would not attempt to seek a third term as Wyoming’s chief executive.

The announcement ends years of speculation that Gordon might wage a legal challenge to a state law limiting governors to just two terms, a challenge that would likely have succeeded.

A spokesperson for Gordon, however, once again did not rule out the possibility he could seek a different office this fall. The governor has occasionally been mentioned as a possible candidate for the state’s open U.S. Senate or House seats, though there’s no indication he’s preparing to enter either contest ahead of the May 29 filing deadline.

Attorneys General & Secretaries of State

MI-AG, MI-SoS

Washtenaw County Prosecutor Eli Savit effectively locked down the Democratic nomination for Michigan attorney general at Sunday’s endorsement convention, while Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist did the same in the race for secretary of state.

Savit defeated Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald on the convention floor. He’ll take on Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd, who won the Republican nomination at the GOP’s endorsement convention last month, in the fall general election to replace Democratic Attorney General Dana Nessel, who cannot seek a third term.

Gilchrist, meanwhile, beat both Ingham County Clerk Barb Byrum and former Michigan Lottery Commissioner Suzanna Shkreli. He’ll go up against Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini in the contest to succeed term-limited Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who is the Democratic frontrunner for governor.

Benson is competing in a traditional primary on Aug. 4, and Gilchrist was one of her opponents until he switched races in January. That decision meant that a far smaller electorate would decide whether he’d get to advance to the general election: Party delegates in Michigan choose their nominees for attorney general, secretary of state, the state Supreme Court, and statewide education and university boards.

Though nominees for these posts won’t officially be designated until the parties hold further conventions in August, the endorsement convention allows both Democrats and Republicans to unofficially select their preferred candidates and give them a head start in the general election.

Obituaries

David McKinley

Former Rep. David McKinley, a West Virginia Republican who was elected to Congress during the 2010 red wave and left office after losing renomination to a fellow incumbent in 2022, died last week at the age of 79.

McKinley, as The Downballot wrote in our look at his career on the occasion of his defeat, was a longtime fixture in Mountain State politics, going back to his first election to the legislature in 1980. After serving as state GOP chair in the 1990s, he became an influential figure as Republicans gradually grew dominant in what had long been a heavily Democratic state.

The 2020 census, though, marked the beginning of the end of his decades-long career. West Virginia lost one of its three U.S. House seats, pushing both McKinley and fellow Rep. Alex Mooney to fight it out for the 2nd District in the northern part of the state. The two colleagues waged a nasty battle, but Mooney, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, won decisively.

Poll Pile

• AL-Sen (R): Peak Insights for Barry Moore:

  • Barry Moore: 34, Steve Marshall: 16, Jared Hudson: 12, other candidates 2% or less.

  • Moore: 47, Marshall: 27.

• ME-Sen (D): Workbench Strategy for Graham Platner:

  • Graham Platner: 64, Janet Mills: 29.

• TX-Sen (R): Texas Public Opinion Research:

  • Ken Paxton: 48, John Cornyn (inc): 40.

• AZ-Gov (R): NextGen Polling:

  • Andy Biggs: 52, David Schweikert: 10.

• MD-06 (D): Hart Research for April McClain Delaney:

  • April McClain Delaney (inc): 49, David Trone: 38.

  • March: 49-37 Delaney.

Quarterly fundraising reports for congressional candidates covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31 were due at the Federal Election Commission on April 15 by midnight ET.

Below are our charts of fundraising data for every incumbent in the Senate and House seeking reelection, as well as notable non-incumbents, as reported to the FEC. All numbers are in thousands.

To see each chart in full, click on the bottom where it reads “+ Show ___ more.” Note that you may need to scroll horizontally to see some columns. An explanation of each column can be found below the charts.

It takes a lot of work to put together these charts! Please consider upgrading to a paid subscription to support The Downballot’s unique coverage.

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Notes:

• Data for candidates running in New Jersey’s 11th District covers the period from Jan. 17 to March 31, due to the April 16 special election.

• For Rep. Christian Menefee, who ran in the Jan. 31 special election runoff in Texas’ 18th District, data covers the period from Jan. 12 to March 31.

• For candidates in Utah, data covers the period from. Jan. 1 to April 5, due to the state’s April 25 party conventions.

• Candidates in Virginia are listed under the proposed district they have said they would run in, should voters approve a constitutional amendment allowing the enactment of a new congressional map in an upcoming special election on April 21.

Below is an explanation of each column:

• Under “Party,” a designation including “-inc” refers to an incumbent.

• “1Q Raised“ is the amount the campaign received in donations from donors during the reporting period. This includes transfers from other committees but does not include any self-funding or loans.

• “Self-Fund“ is the amount in contributions and/or loans a candidate made to their own campaign using their personal resources during the reporting period. This number, if any, is not included in the “Raised” column.

• “Spent“ is the amount of money the campaign spent during the reporting period.

• “Cash“ is the total cash on hand the campaign had available at the end of the reporting period.

• “Raised CTD“ is the amount the campaign had received in donations from donors for the cycle to date as of the end of the reporting period. This includes transfers from other committees but does not include any self-funding or loans.

• “Self-Fund CTD“ is the amount in contributions and/or loans a candidate had made to their own campaign using their personal resources for the cycle to date during the reporting period. This number, if any, is not counted in the “Raised CTD” column.

• “Spent CTD“ is the amount of money the campaign had spent for the cycle to date as of the end of the reporting period.

• “Transfer“ is the amount in monetary transfers from other political committees during the reporting period. This number, if any, is included in the “Raised” column.

• “Transfer CTD“ is the amount in monetary transfers from other political committees for the cycle to date as of the end of the reporting period. This number, if any, is included in the “Raised CTD” column.

Ultimately, all money received from all sources is reflected in every candidate’s cash-on-hand totals, less spending.

You can also find our charts for earlier quarters in 2025: 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q.

For fundraising charts from previous election cycles, please visit the-downballot.com/data.

Leading Off

MI-Gov

A new independent poll finds that Rep. John James is no longer the frontrunner in the Republican primary for Michigan’s open governorship—and James’ response has only made things worse.

Emerson College’s survey for WOOD-TV shows wealthy businessman Perry Johnson edging out James 21-20 in the Aug. 4 primary, with former Attorney General Mike Cox at 10%. A large 39% plurality of respondents are undecided, while six low-polling candidates split the balance.

While James only narrowly trails Johnson, who has spent over $10 million on ads since he entered the race in January, Emerson’s poll is the first anyone has released that hasn’t put James in the lead.

The congressman quickly pushed back by sharing an internal poll on social media showing him defeating Johnson 37-19, with Cox again taking 10%. James wrote that these numbers from OnMessage “show what Michigan already knows. We’re winning 2 to 1 and the best is yet to come.”

His rivals, though, quickly noticed the survey was completed on March 19, and they weren’t shy about pointing it out.

“So desperate. Now releasing a poll that’s a month stale,” Cox tweeted. John Yob, Johnson’s chief consultant, piled on by sarcastically thanking James “for putting out a month old poll to confirm how much he has collapsed and we have gained in the last month.”

James’ survey was also conducted shortly before he drew the kind of attention that few candidates want.

“While Michigan families struggle, John James is living large in the Caribbean,” a Michigan-based outlet called Distill Social tweeted early this month as it shared what it said was a picture of the congressman on vacation in the Turks and Caicos Islands. “Hey @TMZ we got one for ya.”

The gossip giant, which was gleefully turning its cameras on members of Congress who were on vacation as the Department of Homeland Security remained shut down, was indeed interested, and it published a piece on James.

Columnist Nolan Finley soon wrote in the Detroit News that Distill’s photo of the congressman, who has missed more votes than any other member of Michigan’s 13-person House delegation, only made it easier for Johnson to portray him as a “disengaged politician.”

Finley also noted that James has continued to avoid debates and other events where he hasn’t been guaranteed a supportive crowd, arguing that the one-time polling leader was “mounting a defensive campaign, running not to lose rather than to win.” Thanks to Johnson’s well-funded operation, though, it’s no longer a viable strategy for James.

“James is an admitted homebody who cherishes time with his wife and kids. But he’s not going to ride a beach chair to victory,” Finley wrote. “He’s got to show up and show voters he really does want to be governor.”

Yet James has remained an absentee candidate. After he asked the Oakland County GOP to remove him from a flier advertising a debate set for April 30, unhappy party officials have talked about little else.

“It’s unfortunate that @JohnJamesMI won’t agree to participate in our gubernatorial debate later this month,” county chair Vance Patrick tweeted last week. “It was specifically scheduled to be after the [April 21] candidate filing deadline because his campaign made that a condition of any participation in debates.”

Hannah Osantowske, a James spokesperson, responded by writing that he’d participate in a debate “when the field is set.” She continued, “In 2022, after premature debates, multiple participants were removed from the ballot due to the fraudulent signatures they turned in.”

Osantowske avoided explicitly mentioning that one of these candidates was Johnson, whose campaign to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer collapsed after he fell victim to a fraudulent petition signature scandal.

But Brian Szmytke, a senior adviser to the Oakland County GOP, wasn’t placated. In an interview with Michigan Public Radio, he expressed his displeasure with James both for refusing to attend the debate and for giving up Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, a competitive constituency in the Detroit suburbs.

“It’s honestly a slap in the face to the volunteers that got him elected, because our people put in a lot of blood, sweat, tears, and their money to get him elected,” Szmytke said. “Now he’s abandoning that seat, and he’s not even showing up to a debate to explain why.”

Szmytke’s comments echo those made last year by none other than Donald Trump, who told the congressman he was “not sure I’m happy about” James decision to try to succeed Whitmer, who is termed out, rather than defend the 10th.

Trump, who delivered his comments at a time when James appeared to be in a strong position to capture the GOP gubernatorial nod, has yet to take sides in what’s become an expensive and unpredictable primary.

There’s considerably less uncertainty about what will happen in the Democratic primary.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has long been her party’s undisputed frontrunner against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and a few other little-known candidates, and Emerson’s new poll gave her more reason to feel good about her prospects in August. The school shows Benson taking 52% of the vote, with Swanson far behind at just 5%.

The eventual Democratic and Republican nominees will likely find themselves in a three-way race with former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who is running as an independent.

Duggan, though, has a difficult task ahead of him as he tries to get on the ballot. The ex-mayor has until July 16 to collect 12,000 valid voter signatures, along with at least 100 in half of the state’s 13 congressional districts—a task that has vexed many other candidates in the past, not least among them Perry Johnson.

The Downballot only exists because of our readers.

We have no deep-pocketed corporate backers and no billionaire sugar daddies. That means we can always tell the truth without fear—something major media conglomerates increasingly refuse to do. But it also means we need folks to sign up as paid subscribers so that we can keep the lights on. If you’re able to support our work, we hope you’ll upgrade today.

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The Downballot

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Democrats kicked Eric Swalwell to the curb lightning-quick, and it’s a very good thing he’s gone. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the brave women who came forward to accuse Swalwell of sexual assault and wound up ending his political career. We also assess the fallout from his departure—and ho…

Listen now

16 days ago · 1 comment · David Nir and David Beard

Election Recaps

NJ-11

Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia easily beat Republican Joe Hathaway in Thursday’s special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a fellow Democrat, in New Jersey’s 11th District.

Mejia holds a 60-40 lead, with the Associated Press estimating the 94% of the vote has been tallied. According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried this North Jersey constituency by a 53-45 margin in 2024, and Sherrill defeated her Republican opponent 57-42 last year, per the New Jersey Globe.

Redistricting Roundup

FL Redistricting

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has postponed a special session of the legislature to redraw Florida’s congressional districts by a week, with lawmakers still unable to pass a budget—and no draft maps in sight.

The redistricting session, which DeSantis had originally scheduled for Monday, now won’t begin until April 28. It’s an open question, though, whether legislators will find the time and the wherewithal to address the congressional map at all.

Last month, the legislature’s regularly scheduled annual session came to an end with the House and Senate bitterly divided over the state’s budget. Even though Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers, that impasse is still unresolved.

One former GOP chair of the Senate’s Appropriations Committee recently suggested things might remain that way until July 1, which is when funding for the state government will run out. That’s precisely what happened last year, when DeSantis signed a new budget on the last possible day. Going beyond that deadline would result in a partial government shutdown.

In the meantime, the appetite for making changes to Florida’s map seems minimal for many Republicans. Several GOP members of the state’s congressional delegation have warned that major alterations could backfire on the party, which has seen its standing deteriorate badly among Latino voters in particular.

Some observers have speculated that DeSantis wanted to wait until after Virginia holds a vote on Tuesday that would allow the state to adopt a new Democratic-drawn map, though DeSantis himself rejected those claims earlier this week.

NBC reporter Matt Dixon also said Virginia’s redistricting efforts were only a “small part” of why DeSantis delayed the special session, concluding that “GOP circular firing squad” and a lack of “actual maps” were “a more significant factor.”

House

CA-06

House Speaker Mike Johnson transferred nearly $160,000 in campaign funds to California Rep. Kevin Kiley at the end of March—three weeks after Kiley dropped his affiliation with the Republican Party and announced he’d run for reelection as an independent.

As a result of his disaffiliation, Kiley was temporarily booted from his committee assignments last month, but he was reinstated on Thursday.

Throughout, Kiley has remained a member of the House GOP caucus, but he’s been cagey about whether he’d stick with the party should he win another term. Johnson’s move, however, offers a strong hint, as does the name of his joint fundraising committee: It’s called Grow the Majority.

Kiley faces a difficult campaign for the revamped 6th District after voters passed a new Democratic-drawn map last year, but he could potentially benefit from the fact that five Democrats are running, several of whom have raised credible sums. By contrast, only one candidate, Christian author Michael Stansfield, is on the ballot as a Republican.

Stansfield hasn’t reported raising any money yet, but his party label, combined with Kiley’s money and name recognition, could allow the two of them to advance through the top-two primary if the large Democratic field fractures the left-leaning vote.

NY-07

1199SEIU, one of the most influential unions in New York City politics, has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the Democratic primary for New York’s open 7th Congressional District.

City & State’s Jeff Coltin describes the development as “a blow” to his top rival, Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who “launched her campaign with a plan of uniting labor and the left“ and has the backing of Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

But, Coltin observes, Valdez has only earned one notable labor endorsement, from a local branch of the United Auto Workers, which she was previously a member of. Reynoso, on the other hand, previously won the backing of several other major unions, including the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council and 32BJ SEIU.

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Poll Pile

• MI-Sen (D): Emerson College for WOOD-TV:

  • Abdul El-Sayed: 24, Mallory McMorrow: 24, Haley Stevens: 13, others 3% or less, undecided: 36.

  • Jan: McMorrow: 22, Stevens: 17, El-Sayed: 16.

• MI-Sen (R): Emerson:

  • Mike Rogers: 55, other candidates 2% or less.

• NC-Sen: High Point University/YouGov:

  • Roy Cooper (D): 50, Michael Whatley (R): 42.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Emerson for Inside California Politics:

  • Steve Hilton (R): 17, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Tom Steyer (D): 14, Xavier Becerra (D): 10, Katie Porter (D): 10, Matt Mahan (D): 5, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 23.

  • March: Eric Swalwell (D): 17, Hilton (R): 13, Bianco (R): 11, Steyer (D): 11, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 3, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 3, Becerra (D): 3.

• TX-19 (R): Harper Polling for Tom Sell:

  • Tom Sell: 58, Abraham Enriquez: 17.

Due to an editing error, our item in the last Morning Digest on Utah’s 1st Congressional District failed to properly identify the target of comments by state Sen. Kathleen Riebe. She referred to state Sen. Nate Blouin as “too inflammatory.”

Leading Off

WI Supreme Court

Wisconsin liberals landed their first major candidate for next year’s state Supreme Court race on Thursday when Lyndsey Brunette, a judge on the Clark County Circuit Court, announced she would run to replace a retiring conservative justice.

“Whether it’s protecting personal healthcare rights, safeguarding voting rights, or supporting public safety, we need to protect a majority on our state Supreme Court who will fairly and impartially uphold our laws,” Brunette said in a statement.

Brunette launched her campaign just over a week after Judge Chris Taylor, a fellow progressive, won another Supreme Court seat in a 60-40 blowout, a result that expanded the body’s liberal majority from 4-3 to 5-2.

If Brunette wins next April’s officially nonpartisan election to succeed Justice Annette Ziegler—another conservative who announced last month that she would not seek a new 10-year term—that advantage would balloon to 6-1. Such an outcome would leave Brian Hagedorn as the only remaining member of the high court’s once-dominant right-wing bloc.

But Hagedorn, whose narrow 2019 victory made him the last conservative to win a race for the Supreme Court, has frustrated his erstwhile allies by occasionally siding against them. His most prominent moment in the spotlight came in 2020 when he cast the crucial vote that kept the court from considering Donald Trump’s lawsuit aimed at overturning his defeat in the state.

A progressive victory would also mean that the conservatives, who are already stuck in the minority until 2030 at the earliest, wouldn’t have a chance to regain control of the court until at least 2033.

That timeline could prove to be important for numerous issues, including redistricting. The Supreme Court, which may hear pending lawsuits concerning the state’s current congressional map, could be called on to step in if the governor and legislature can’t agree on new electoral boundaries after the 2030 census.

It’s an unfamiliar—and deeply unwelcome—situation for conservatives, who controlled this swing state’s highest court from 2008 until 2023. While liberal candidates prevailed in several contests during that era, conservatives kept their majority by coming out on top in some excruciatingly tight contests.

Conservative Justice David Prosser famously won reelection 50.2 to 49.8 in a nationally watched 2011 race that took place less than a month after Republican Gov. Scott Walker signed the union-busting Act 10. Hagedorn would score an almost identical victory eight years later in a close race to succeed a retiring liberal justice, an outcome that left conservatives with an imposing 5-2 majority.

Almost no one, however, anticipated the dramatic changes that elections for the Supreme Court—and soon enough, the court itself—would experience.

In the spring of 2020, progressive Jill Karofsky unseated conservative Justice Dan Kelly, whom Walker had appointed in 2016 after Prosser stepped down midway through his term, in a 55-45 landslide.

Fellow progressive Janet Protasiewicz then won by an identical margin in 2023 against Kelly in a hard-fought contest that gave liberals a majority on the Supreme Court for the first time in 16 years.

Two years later, Susan Crawford, another liberal judge, overcame massive spending from Elon Musk to win her race by that now-familiar 55-45 margin, an outcome that preserved progressives’ hard-earned 4-3 majority.

But after three straight double-digit blowouts, conservative donors responded by keeping their wallets firmly shut and all but conceded this year’s race to Taylor well before Election Day.

Taylor’s 20–point victory over conservative Judge Maria Lazar, though, left Wisconsin Republicans deeply frustrated, and more than a few asked whether state party chair Brian Schimming should remain in charge.

“Anybody who runs a business, or anybody who runs a sports team, knows that the quarterback needs to win games in order to stay the quarterback,” an unnamed GOP leader told Politico. “And if we’re looking at this like a business, like an operation, we need our leaders to supply the infrastructure for victory.”

The last four Supreme Court elections, though, don’t leave Republicans with much reason to be optimistic about 2027, no matter who leads them.

The dynamics that once helped conservatives like Prosser and Hagedorn pull off narrow victories have changed. Liberal candidates have been buoyed by strong turnout in off-year elections, a trend that’s continued to help Democrats nationwide.

Progressive judicial candidates running in the years since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade have also successfully made their support for abortion rights a centerpiece of their campaigns.

Brunette, who emphasized “protecting your personal healthcare rights” as one of her key issues in her launch video, is currently the only notable candidate running to replace Ziegler.

And while she’s getting an early start, no conservative candidates have publicly expressed interest in trying to break their side’s painful losing streak.

Anyone who sits out this contest, though, could instead choose to run in the spring of 2028 when Justice Rebecca Dallet, who is part of the progressive majority, is up for a new 10-year term.

Wisconsin will host still one more Supreme Court race before the decade is out. Hagedorn, who may soon be the last remaining conservative on the bench, is up for reelection in 2029. It remains to be seen how aggressively liberals try to target him, but his apostasies could also draw a challenge from a more stridently right-wing opponent.

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The Downballot Podcast

Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Democrats kicked Eric Swalwell to the curb lightning-quick, and it’s a very good thing he’s gone. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard discuss the brave women who came forward to accuse Swalwell of sexual assault and wound up ending his political career. We also assess the fallout from his departure—and how it differs so starkly compared to the way Republicans dealt with a miscreant of their own, Tony Gonzales.

The Davids then talk with Maryam Jazini, the senior director of litigation at Common Cause, about the Justice Department’s efforts to wrest confidential vote data from nearly every state. Jazini explains why the DOJ’s crusade is such a dangerous component of Donald Trump’s hopes of asserting federal control over our elections. But groups like Common Cause are fighting back—and winning in court.

P.S. The Downballot podcast is taking next week off, but to attend the live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast with Nir and G. Elliott Morris on April 23 in Washington, DC, please RSVP here!

Election Night

NJ-11

Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia is on track to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill in Congress when New Jersey’s 11th District hosts a rare Thursday election.

Mejia is the heavy favorite over her Republican opponent, Randolph City Councilman Joe Hathaway, whom she’s outraised 2-to-1. The race has seen limited outside spending, and Hathaway never responded to the only poll of the race, a Mejia internal that had her up 53-36.

The district’s political lean also favors Democrats. According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried the 11th District by a 53-45 margin in 2024, and Sherrill defeated her Republican opponent 57-42 last year, per the New Jersey Globe.

Mejia narrowly won the February special election primary over better-funded opponents in an upset, but she’s drawn no notable intra-party opposition in the race for a full term. Assuming she prevails in the regular primary in June, she’d face Hathaway again in November, as he’s once again the only Republican on the ballot.

Redistricting Roundup

VA Redistricting

A new poll finds a 51-45 majority of Virginia voters in favor of a constitutional amendment that would allow the state to adopt a new Democratic-drawn congressional map in time for this year’s elections. The survey, which was conducted by the political analysis website State Navigate, was released with just under a week to go before next Tuesday’s referendum.

The numbers are almost identical to the 52-47 majority for the “yes” side that Braun Research found at the end of March in its poll for the Washington Post and George Mason University.

The only publicly available survey that was conducted in the intervening time came from the Republican firm Neighborhood Research, which found “no” ahead by a slim 46-45 spread.

However, this poll simply asked respondents, “Will you (or did you) vote yes or no on the redistricting referendum?” Both State Navigate and Braun, by contrast, used the exact language that will appear on ballots on April 21.

Throughout the race, the Democratic campaign to pass the amendment has continued to decisively outspend the “no” side, though Republicans have narrowed the gulf somewhat in recent weeks.

CNN, citing data from AdImpact, reports that Democrats had outspent the GOP about $48 million to $17 million as of Monday. The “yes” side, by contrast, enjoyed a $33 million to $3 million advantage at the start of the month.

Conservatives have argued that the state’s Democratic-led government is trying to ram through a gerrymander just six years after Virginians overwhelmingly approved an amendment to establish an independent redistricting panel to draw the lines.

One spot from Virginians for Fair Maps, which is the main group on the “no” side, opens with old footage of Barack Obama saying, “Because of things like political gerrymandering, our parties have moved further and further apart, and it’s harder and harder to find common ground.”

The narrator jumps in, “That’s why two-thirds of Virginians voted to end partisan gerrymandering. But Richmond politicians want to shred our bipartisan process and draw maps for themselves again.”

Meanwhile, mailers from a different group led by former Republican Del. A.C. Cordoza have used photos of Ku Klux Klan members to urge Black voters to oppose the amendment—an effort that civil rights leaders have slammed.

The “yes” side, by contrast, argues that Virginia needs to push back on Donald Trump and his allies’ quest to gerrymander congressional districts across the country.

“Republicans want to steal enough seats in Congress to rig the next election and wield unchecked power for two more years,” Obama says in a commercial he filmed this year for Virginians for Fair Elections. The former president urges viewers, “Help put our elections back on a level playing field and let voters decide, not politicians.”

Governors

CA-Gov

The California Teachers Association has endorsed billionaire Tom Steyer’s bid for governor, making it the first major player that had previously backed former Rep. Eric Swalwell to re-engage with the race following the ex-congressman’s abrupt departure following sexual assault allegations earlier this week.

On Friday evening, just hours after the San Francisco Chronicle and CNN reported on the accusations, the CTA withdrew its support from Swalwell, as did every other union that had endorsed him.

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MS-Gov

Former Mississippi House Speaker Philip Gunn announced Tuesday that he was joining next year’s race to succeed termed-out Gov. Tate Reeves, a fellow Republican.

Gunn became the first Republican to lead the lower chamber since Reconstruction after his party took control following the 2011 elections. During the ensuing years, he cemented his status as one of the most powerful people in state government.

Gunn, though, was one of the many Magnolia State Republicans who frequently clashed with Reeves over policy and personality. There was even speculation that Gunn could challenge the governor for renomination in 2023, though he ultimately decided not to seek any office that year.

Gunn joins state Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson, who began running for governor in June of last year, in the 2027 primary. Several other Republicans are also considering running to lead this conservative state.

Most of the prospective GOP field consists of current or recent officeholders, though Mississippi Today writes that former Rep. Gregg Harper is also considering a comeback. Harper, who was elected to Congress in 2008 and retired a decade later, does not appear to have said anything publicly about his interest.

House

CA-14

Political strategist Matt Ortega, one of several Democrats running to succeed former Rep. Eric Swalwell, says he won’t run in the Aug. 18 special election for the final months of Swalwell’s term. Candidates have until the April 23 filing deadline to decide.

FL-20

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, who was set to go on trial on federal corruption charges next week, now won’t face trial until February, after a judge agreed to a joint request from the prosecution and defense to delay the proceedings.

Cherfilus-McCormick was indicted last year for allegedly using stolen taxpayer funds to finance her victorious 2021 primary campaign. Last month, a bipartisan panel of the House Ethics Committee found her guilty of 25 counts of misconduct related to the same affair.

The committee has scheduled a hearing for Tuesday to determine what sanctions to apply, which could include expulsion.

MA-06

Former congressional aide Rick Jakious said Wednesday that he was dropping out of the crowded contest to replace Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who was Jakious’ longtime boss.

Jakious’ departure leaves seven Democrats competing in the Sept. 1 primary for Massachusetts’ 6th District, a safely blue constituency that includes the region north of Boston known as the North Shore. Moulton opted to challenge Sen. Ed Markey for renomination rather than seek reelection.

MN-02

Republican Tyler Kistner said Wednesday that he was ending his third campaign for Minnesota’s open 2nd District because he would be deployed overseas as a member of the Marine Reserve. Kistner was the GOP nominee in both 2020 and 2022 against Democratic Rep. Angie Craig, who is now running for the Senate.

State Sen. Eric Pratt is now the only notable Republican running to flip the 2nd, a constituency in the Twin Cities suburbs that backed Kamala Harris 52-46. Kistner, however, was anything but supportive of his now-former rival.

“We will not be endorsing Eric Pratt due to his history of bashing President Trump and extremely weak record in the legislature,” campaign strategist Billy Grant told the Minnesota Star Tribune.

Minnesota’s candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 2, which gives any hardliners a bit of time to decide whether to take on Pratt.

Three prominent Democrats are competing in the Aug. 11 primary: state Rep. Kaela Berg, state Sen. Matt Klein, and former state Sen. Matt Little.

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NE-02

Democratic state Sen. John Cavanaugh is pushing back against attacks that his campaign for the House could jeopardize the status of Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District as a “blue dot” in the Electoral College with a new ad featuring two of his colleagues in the legislature.

“I fought to protect the blue dot. So have six of my Senate colleagues who are proudly supporting John Kavanaugh for Congress,” says Sen. Ashlei Spivey. “Don’t buy the lies from the MAGA Republicans about losing the blue dot or a woman’s right to choose.”

“These dark-money super PACs are just spreading MAGA Republican talking points,” continues Sen. George Dungan. “We know Nebraska Democrats will pick up additional seats this election, securing the blue dot.”

“That’s why we trust John Kavanaugh,” concludes Spivey, “and so should you.”

A third-party group supporting Cavanaugh’s chief rival in the Democratic primary for the open 2nd District, political strategist Denise Powell, recently began airing ads warning that Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would be able to appoint a replacement for the senator should he win election to Congress in November.

That in turn could strengthen the hand of Republicans in the state Senate, who fell just short of overcoming a filibuster to pass legislation ending Nebraska’s system of awarding an electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district last year. While the GOP occupies 33 of the Senate’s 49 seats in the unicameral legislature—the exact number needed to defeat a filibuster—two Republicans broke ranks to thwart the bill.

However, as Dungan notes, Democrats could make the matter moot by flipping enough seats to break the GOP’s supermajority, which would ensure they could maintain future filibusters without Republican support.

NJ-07

Republican Rep. Tom Kean hasn’t voted on Capitol Hill in a month due to an unspecified medical condition, and it’s not clear when he’ll return to work, the New Jersey Globe reports.

A spokesperson told the Globe, “He’s expected to be totally fine and back to a full schedule soon” but did not offer further information about what they called a “personal medical issue.” The outlet notes that after Kean first began missing votes last month, his office issued a similar statement.

Kean, 57, faces a difficult reelection campaign in New Jersey’s swingy 7th District, where a large number of Democrats are vying to take him on.

PA-03

Philadelphia Mayor Cherelle Parker endorsed state Sen. Sharif Street on Wednesday ahead of the May 19 Democratic primary for Pennsylvania’s open 3rd Congressional District, which is one of the most Democratic constituencies in the nation.

Street, a former chair of the state Democratic Party, faces two intraparty opponents in the race to replace retiring Rep. Dwight Evans: physician Ala Stanford, who has Evans’ backing, and state Rep. Chris Rabb.

UT-01

Democratic state Sen. Nate Blouin posted online comments insulting Mormons and joking about sexual assault more than a decade ago, according to archives unearthed by Punchbowl News.

Among other things, Blouin called the Church of Jesus Christ of the Latter-day Saints “a bunch of bigoted assholes” and said it’s “DEFINITELY just a front for the largest US drug cartel.” He also wrote that “slapping girl’s asses as you run by … shouldn’t land you in jail or anything by any means.”

In a statement, Blouin responded by saying his comments were “vulgar, stupid, and reflect a version of me in my early twenties that I’m ashamed of and have thankfully evolved past.” He added, “To the people I hurt with my words, I sincerely apologize.”

Blouin is one of the leading Democrats seeking Utah’s redrawn 1st District, which became solidly blue thanks to court-ordered redistricting last year. A few days before Punchbowl’s report, one of his former rivals, state Sen Kathleen Riebe, dropped out of the primary and endorsed the frontrunner, former Rep. Ben McAdams, calling Blouin “too inflammatory” and a “loose cannon.”

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Poll Pile

• MA-Sen (D): Suffolk University for the Boston Globe:

  • Ed Markey (inc): 47, Seth Moulton: 30. (Nov.: 45-22 Markey)

• MI-Sen (D): Data for Progress for Zeteo and Drop Site News:

  • Haley Stevens: 23, Abdul El-Sayed: 22, Mallory McMorrow: 22, undecided: 33.

• MD-06 (D): Hart Research for April McClain Delaney:

  • April McClain Delaney (inc): 49, David Trone: 37.

  • The poll was in the field March 16-21.

• PA-03 (D): Public Policy Polling for 314 Action (pro-Stanford):

  • Ala Stanford: 28, Chris Rabb: 23, Sharif Street: 16.

The last Digest incorrectly stated how long it had been since a Republican last represented New York’s 4th Congressional District before Anthony D’Esposito won in 2022. D’Esposito was the district’s first Republican congressman in 26 years, not 16.

Editor’s Note: Due to an editing error, our item on Utah’s 1st Congressional District failed to properly identify the target of comments by state Sen. Kathleen Riebe. She referred to state Sen. Nate Blouin as “too inflammatory.”

The Davids then talk with Maryam Jazini, the senior director of litigation at Common Cause, about the Justice Department’s efforts to wrest confidential vote data from nearly every state. Jazini explains why the DOJ’s crusade is such a dangerous component of Donald Trump’s hopes of asserting federal control over our elections. But groups like Common Cause are fighting back—and winning in court.

P.S. The Downballot podcast is taking next week off, but to attend the live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast with Nir and G. Elliott Morris on April 23 in Washington, DC, please RSVP here!

Leading Off

NY-04

GOP leaders in Nassau County announced Tuesday that they would field Jeanine Driscoll, who serves as receiver of taxes for the Town of Hempstead, against Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen—a decision that comes after more than a year of confusion and paralysis for Republicans.

Until recently, just about everyone anticipated that New York’s 4th Congressional District, a competitive constituency on Long Island, would play host to a third bout between Gillen and former Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito.

D’Esposito narrowly defeated Gillen in a 2022 race to replace retiring Democrat Kathleen Rice, a win that made him the first Republican to hold the seat in 26 years. Two years later, however, Gillen scored a 51-49 victory over D’Esposito, who was the subject of a New York Times story late in the campaign reporting that he gave a part-time job in his congressional office to a woman he was having an affair with.

Despite his loss and the bad press, Semafor reported in March of last year that D’Esposito was “expected” to try to reclaim the 4th District, which had backed Kamala Harris by a slim 50-49 spread four years after Joe Biden carried it by a much wider 57-42 margin. That story, though, only marked the start of a long will-he-or-won’t-he saga that only concluded this week.

Last April, Donald Trump nominated D’Esposito to serve as inspector general for the Labor Department, a move that initially seemed to signal that the ex-congressman had decided against a rematch.

D’Esposito, though, drew attention at his Senate confirmation hearing in October—a full six months after Trump tapped him—when he refused to answer questions about whether he might run for office again.

He was finally confirmed in December and sworn in the following month, putting him in charge of the investigation into misconduct allegations surrounding Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer, his former House colleague from Oregon.

D’Esposito, though, continued to send confusing signals about his interest in another campaign for Congress. Other prominent Long Island Republicans stayed on the sidelines, waiting to see what he’d do.

The former lawmaker seemed to finally make up his mind in early March when Newsday reported that a campaign launch was imminent. But what followed was just more uncertainty—and more obfuscation from D’Esposito—as the April 6 candidate filing deadline approached.

Nassau County GOP chair Joe Cairo and his allies gave themselves some extra time to settle on a standard-bearer by nominally tapping former Valley Stream Mayor John DeGrace. Politicos understood, though, that DeGrace would drop out so that they could give his spot on the June 23 primary ballot to someone else, under a New York law allowing for precisely such a switcheroo.

DeGrace did indeed depart the race on Thursday evening, meaning Cairo finally faced a drop-dead date to pick an alternative.

Driscoll, who was elected as Hempstead’s receiver of taxes in 2023, finally emerged as that alternative on Tuesday, the last possible day, and launched her bid with D’Esposito’s endorsement. Driscoll should have little trouble winning the GOP primary, but she now has less than seven months to organize a campaign to take on Gillen in what’s shaping up to be a tough year for Republicans.

Gillen, however, could still face a difficult campaign to keep the seat she flipped two years ago.

The congresswoman faces intraparty opposition from former Assemblymember Taylor Darling, who has faulted Gillen for being one of just seven Democrats to support a bill early this year that gave billions more to ICE. It remains to be seen, though, whether Darling, who began running in February, can put together a strong effort against the incumbent.

Driscoll also has reason to hope that Trump’s weak nationwide approval ratings won’t doom her. Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman and the rest of the Republican ticket decisively prevailed in last November’s countywide elections in what proved to be a rare bright spot for the GOP on an otherwise disastrous night.

Soon after he won a second term, Blakeman kicked off a bid for governor, and he’s now the presumptive GOP nominee to take on Democratic incumbent Kathy Hochul. Despite his comfortable victory, Blakeman faces long odds in his quest to win in this heavily Democratic state, but he could prove to be an asset back home to Republicans like Driscoll.

Gillen’s team, though, thinks that voters won’t look so kindly on Driscoll’s connections to Cairo and the rest of the county GOP.

“Jeanine Driscoll has emerged from the shadows as the handpicked candidate of the Nassau GOP chair — not the voters,” her campaign said in a statement to Newsday. “Her participation in this sleazy and corrupt bait and switch is a clear indicator that Driscoll will continue to do the bidding of the bosses who anointed her.”

We publish the Morning Digest 240 times a year. If you subscribe at our annual rate of $60, that’s just 25¢ per issue! There aren’t many things you can get for a quarter these days, but top-notch coverage of overlooked elections is one of ‘em. Support The Downballot’s unique work:

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The Downballot

The progressive landslide in Wisconsin

It was a massive blowout for progressives up and down the ticket in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, capped by a rout in the race for the Supreme Court that saw liberals expand their hard-won majority. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay break down all of the top contests, as well as the special ele…

Listen now

24 days ago · 9 likes · 3 comments · David Beard and Joe Sudbay

House

CA-14, TX-23

Both Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell and Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales submitted their resignations on Tuesday, with both taking effect that same day.

Later that same day, California Gov. Gavin Newsom scheduled the special election to replace Swalwell in the safely blue 14th District for Aug. 18, the soonest he could have called it. That means a first round of voting will take place on June 16—two weeks after the June 2 top-two primary for a full two-year term.

Unlike with regularly scheduled elections in California, it’s possible to avert a second round in a special election if the winning candidate takes a majority of the vote in the first round. However, nine candidates are currently running for a full term, so if all of them pile into the special, it’s unlikely anyone will clear 50% of the vote. Should this happen, the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, would advance to the second round.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, meanwhile, has yet to set an election to fill Gonzales’ vacant 23rd District. State law gives him great leeway, but if he refuses to act, a lawsuit could compel him to do so.

CA-40

Republican Reps. Young Kim and Ken Calvert, who are facing off in an incumbent vs. incumbent battle thanks to redistricting, are fighting over—what else?—which one of them truly loves Donald Trump the most.

Kim, according to Politico, is spending a hefty $3.7 million to make her case on the airwaves ahead of June’s top-two primary. In one new ad, a narrator touts her as “100% pro-Trump—the only candidate with a 100% voting record to prove it.” (No citations are offered on-screen.) The other blasts Calvert, saying he “voted with Pelosi over 5,000 times, sabotaging Trump’s agenda.”

The barrage comes in response to a campaign on behalf of Calvert by a group called Americans 4 Security PAC, which has so far spent $1.5 million on ads and mailers attacking Kim. In one spot, a voice-over calls her a “Trump-hating liberal” who “voted to censure Donald Trump, but voted against censoring Adam Schiff.” (We listened to the ad several times, and yes, the narrator saying “censoring.”)

CA-48

Outside groups are ramping up their spending in California’s open 48th District, a San Diego-area constituency that Democrats are keen to flip after redrawing it last year.

VoteVets, which supports progressive veterans, said on Tuesday that it would spend $225,000 to boost Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar, touting his background as a Navy Reserve officer in a new ad.

The move comes in response to a $750,000 outlay from Democratic Majority for Israel, which began airing an ad last week accusing Campa-Najjar of flip-flopping on his views on Donald Trump and abortion, featuring clips of the candidate offering contradictory statements.

Meanwhile, another Democrat, San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert, is getting help from Elect Democratic Women, a group founded by several women who currently serve or previously served in the House. The organization said on Tuesday it’s spending $290,000 on an ad that highlights von Wilpert’s background as an attorney and her work to protect abortion rights.

Several other Democrats are vying in June’s top-two primary, but none have been the target of any major third-party efforts so far. The main Republican running is San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, who just earned Trump’s endorsement over minor GOP opposition on Tuesday.

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GA-01, GA-10, NV-03, OH-01

Donald Trump issued a boatload of endorsements in House races on Tuesday, though only four of his newly blessed candidates have serious opposition in upcoming GOP primaries:

• GA-01: Insurance executive Jim Kingston, the son of former Rep. Jack Kingston, is squaring off against several other Republicans in the May 19 primary for Georgia’s open 1st District, including Chatham County Commissioner Patrick Farrell, Army veteran Brian Montgomery, far-right activist Kandiss Taylor. The race would go to a June 16 runoff if no one wins a majority.

• GA-10: State Rep. Houston Gaines faces just one major rival, wealthy businessman Ryan Millsap, as he seeks Georgia’s open 10th District.

• NV-03: Video game composer Marty O’Donnell, who’s back for a second try against Democratic Rep. Susie Lee in Nevada’s 3rd District, has three notable opponents in the June 9 primary: real estate agent Tera Anderson, former Ambassador to Iceland Jeff Gunter, and neurosurgeon Aury Nagy.

• OH-01: Air Force veteran Eric Conroy must first get past dentist Steven Erbeck before he can take on Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in Ohio’s 1st District.

VA-07

Olivia Troye, a former national security advisor to Mike Pence who left the White House in 2020 to advocate against Donald Trump’s reelection, announced on Tuesday that she’d join the crowded Democratic primary for Virginia’s proposed 7th Congressional District.

Voting is already underway in the April 21 special election for a constitutional amendment that would allow the legislature to implement a new, Democratic-drawn congressional map. Among other things, that map would establish a blue-tilting 7th District without any incumbent, a prospect that has drawn a large number of notable Democrats to run for this prospective seat.

Legislatures

WI State Senate

The GOP’s already narrow path to holding its majority in the Wisconsin Senate grew even narrower on Tuesday when Sen. Jesse James announced that he would retire rather than continue his campaign against a fellow senator, Democrat Jeff Smith, for the redrawn constituency that includes both of their hometowns.

The 31st District in the Eau Claire area backed Kamala Harris by a tight 50-48 margin, making it one of four seats that both parties recognize as pivotal for control of the Senate. The party that wins three of these races is all but certain to win a majority in the chamber, which the GOP controls 18-15.

Three of these battleground districts, which were redrawn in 2024 after the state Supreme Court struck down the old GOP-drawn map, are held by Republicans, but now, just one will be defended by an incumbent.

The departures began in January, when Sen. Rob Hutton said that he wouldn’t seek a new four-year term in the 5th District, which is based in Waukesha County. The next month, another Republican, Sen. Van Wanggaard, announced he, too, would not run again for the 21st District in the southeastern part of the state.

By contrast, James, who was elected to a four-year term representing the old 23rd District in 2022, had initially announced last October that he’d take on Smith, who won the previous incarnation of the 31st that year. The Republican issued a defiant statement at the time, saying, “I’ve been through uphill battles my whole life, and I’m willing to take on challenges.”

That willingness had evidently faded by Tuesday, when James told his colleagues he wouldn’t seek reelection. Since Wisconsin’s candidate filing deadline isn’t until June 1, Republicans do have some time to recruit another candidate to take on Smith, though now he’s the only incumbent running.

One at-risk Republican is still standing firm—at least for now. On Monday, Sen. Howard Marklein said that he’d run once more in the 17th District, a constituency in the southwestern corner of the state that Harris carried by a single percentage point.

Three Democrats are competing in the Aug. 11 primary for the right to take on Marklein. The most prominent of the trio is state Rep. Jenna Jacobson, who has the Senate Democrats’ official campaign arm on her side.

The battle for the Senate is taking place amid a larger struggle this year in which total control of state government is up for grabs. Democrats are also working to flip the Assembly, where the GOP is sitting on a 54-45 advantage, while both sides are determined to win the race to replace Democratic Gov. Tony Evers, who is retiring.

No matter what happens, though, the Badger State will have a completely different set of legislative leaders next year. Assembly Speaker Robin Vos said in February that he would not run again, while Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, a fellow Republican, said the next month that he also wouldn’t seek another term.

Poll Pile

• TX-Sen (R): co/efficient:

  • John Cornyn (inc): 44, Ken Paxton: 43.

  • Co/efficient says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate or candidate’s committee.”

• NE-Gov: Public Policy Polling for Lynne Walz:

  • Jim Pillen (R-inc): 38, Lynne Walz (D): 33, Rick Beard (Legal Marijuana Now): 12.

• LA-05 (R): Bedrock Polling for the Rainey Center Freedom Project:

  • Blake Miguez: 23, Michael Echols: 20, Rick Edmonds: 10, other candidates 3% or less, undecided: 42.

  • The Rainey Center does not appear to have endorsed a candidate, but the writeup for the poll is favorable to Echols.

  Correction: This story incorrectly stated how long it had been since a Republican last represented New York’s 4th Congressional District before Anthony D’Esposito won in 2022. D’Esposito was the district’s first Republican congressman in 26 years, not 16.

Leading Off

CA-14, TX-23

Two members of Congress who’d been facing possible expulsion votes this week both announced their resignations just over an hour apart on Monday evening: Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell of California and Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas.

Swalwell’s announcement came a day after he abandoned his campaign for governor following accusations from multiple women that he had sexually assaulted them.

“I am deeply sorry to my family, staff, and constituents for mistakes in judgment I’ve made in my past,” Swalwell said in a brief statement. “I will fight the serious, false allegation made against me. However, I must take responsibility and ownership for the mistakes I did make.”

“I am aware of efforts to bring an immediate expulsion vote against me and other members,” he continued. “Expelling anyone in Congress without due process, within days of an allegation being made, is wrong. But it’s also wrong for my constituents to have me distracted from my duties. Therefore, I plan to resign my seat in Congress.”

Gonzales, who admitted to an affair with a former staffer last month, was even terser.

“There is a season for everything and God has a plan for us all,” he tweeted. “When Congress returns tomorrow, I will file my retirement from office. It has been my privilege to serve the great people of Texas.”

Gonzales presumably meant that he would resign rather than retire, since he dropped his bid for reelection the day after acknowledging his affair with his former aide, who died by suicide last year.

He was facing a probe by the House Ethics Committee, which also revealed it would investigate Swalwell earlier on Monday. In addition, the Manhattan district attorney’s office said over the weekend that it would look into the accusations against Swalwell.

Just before the twin resignation announcements, the Washington Post reported that members of the House had planned to introduce resolutions to expel both Swalwell and Gonzales when Congress returns from its recess on Tuesday, with a possible vote on Wednesday.

Two other incumbents facing ethics inquiries and legal travails, Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick and Republican Cory Mills, both of Florida, have also been the subject of expulsion talks. It’s not clear, though, whether the departures of Swalwell and Gonzales will derail any such plans.

In addition, neither man specified when their resignation would take effect. That prompted one representative leading the charge to oust Gonzales, New Mexico Democrat Teresa Leger Fernandez, to issue a stern warning.

“He has until 2PM tomorrow—when we will file his expulsion,” she posted on X on Monday night. “He better write that resignation ‘effective immediately.’”

Swalwell, a former prosecutor and member of the Dublin City Council, first joined Congress following the 2012 elections, when he unseated Democratic Rep. Pete Stark in a safely blue district in the Bay Area. In 2019, he waged a short-lived bid for president, withdrawing from the race after just three months.

It’s not yet clear when a special election to replace Swalwell might be held. Under California law, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has 14 days following the creation of a vacancy to schedule the contest, which normally must then be held between 126 and 140 days later.

However, a special election can wait up to 200 days if it can be consolidated with a regularly scheduled election. Therefore, regardless of when Swalwell formally quits, a special election could take place simultaneously with the November general election.

Several Democrats were already vying to succeed Swalwell in the 14th Congressional District, including San Leandro City Councilman Victor Aguilar, BART board president Melissa Hernandez, businesswoman Rakhi Israni, Democratic operative Matt Ortega, and state Sen. Aisha Wahab.

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has even more leeway to decide when to hold a special election in Texas’ 23rd District. While the Constitution requires states to hold elections to fill vacant seats in the House, it doesn’t specify any sort of timetable, and Texas law is similarly lax. Should Abbott delay, however, he could be vulnerable to a lawsuit seeking to compel him to call a special election.

In last month’s GOP primary, Gonzales trailed far-right gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera by a 43-42 margin, triggering a late May runoff. Two days later, though, Gonzales withdrew from the race, handing the nomination to Herrera.

Despite the district’s conservative bent—it voted for Trump by a 57-42 margin in 2024—Democrats believe that Herrera’s extremist rhetoric and a backlash among Latino voters could put the seat in play. To that end, they’ve shown new interest in attorney Katy Padilla Stout, whose campaign faces an important test when first-quarter fundraising reports are due on Wednesday.

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The Downballot

The progressive landslide in Wisconsin

It was a massive blowout for progressives up and down the ticket in Wisconsin on Tuesday night, capped by a rout in the race for the Supreme Court that saw liberals expand their hard-won majority. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Joe Sudbay break down all of the top contests, as well as the special ele…

Listen now

21 days ago · 9 likes · 3 comments · David Beard and Joe Sudbay

1Q Fundraising

Federal candidates are required to file financial disclosures for the first quarter of the year with the FEC by Wednesday night. As soon as those reports are available, The Downballot will bring you complete charts of fundraising data for all notable Senate and House candidates across the country.

• OH-Gov: Amy Acton (D): $4.8 million raised

• GA-13: Jasmine Clark (D): $620,000 raised

• NJ-07: Tina Shah (D): $310,000 raised, additional $650,000 self-funded, $1.4 million cash on hand

• PA-08: Paige Cognetti (D): $1.4 million raised, $2 million cash on hand

• PA-10: Janelle Stelson (D): $2.1 million raised, $3 million cash on hand

Governors

CO-Gov

Two Republicans vying for Colorado’s open governorship earned spots on the June 30 primary ballot by securing sufficient support from delegates at the GOP’s statewide convention on Saturday: state Rep. Scott Bottoms and pastor Victor Marx.

As a result, several candidates saw their campaigns come to an end, including Teller County Sheriff Jason Mikesell. It’s possible one other contender could join Bottoms and Marx in the primary: state Sen. Barbara Kirkmeyer, who submitted signatures rather than participate in the convention process. According to the secretary of state, those signatures are still under review.

Two Democrats will also face off in their party’s primary: Sen. Michael Bennet and state Attorney General Phil Weiser. Bennet did not compete at last month’s Democratic convention, which Weiser won in a landslide, but instead chose the signature route. His submissions have already passed muster.

FL-Gov

Wealthy attorney John Morgan said Monday that he would not wage a third-party campaign for Florida’s open governorship. Morgan, the founder of the personal injury giant Morgan & Morgan, is a former Democrat who has flirted with running for office in the past only to remain on the sidelines.

OH-Gov

NBC reported Saturday that police were dispatched in 2019 to the home of Amy Acton to respond to what a police report called a “domestic dispute” between her and her husband.

Responders concluded that Acton, who at the time was serving as Ohio’s state health director, had a “verbal argument over her extended work hours.” Acton, according to the document, had told responders she had been drinking and had taken prescription drugs.

Campaign staff for Acton, who is the presumptive Democratic nominee in the race for Ohio’s open governorship, told NBC that she had had only one drink in the evening in question and had gone to bed before the police arrived.

House

CO-03

Republican Rep. Jeff Hurd learned on Friday that he’ll face a far-right primary challenger who’s unfazed about Donald Trump’s bizarre decision to re-endorse the incumbent after ditching him just a month earlier.

“The voters were first disappointed, now furious,” former state Rep. Ron Hanks, a vocal election conspiracy theorist who lost to Hurd in 2024, told Colorado Politics’ Ernest Luning.

“Jeff Hurd preferred to hide from the voters, and they did not learn he was just another anti-Trump New York lawyer until his votes to protect Ilhan Omar and oppose Trump’s use of tariffs as a foreign policy tool showed who he was,” he added.

Hanks launched his second campaign for Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District, a conservative-leaning constituency in the western part of the state, on the very day that GOP delegates were set to gather for the party’s district-level convention, known locally as an assembly.

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Despite his last-second start, though, Hanks had reason to be confident he’d find a receptive audience among the delegates whose support he needed to secure a spot on the primary ballot. Luning notes that many convention-goers had planned to back former state GOP official Hope Scheppelman, who had launched a challenge to Hurd last June.

To that end, Hurd’s enemies received an unexpected boost in February after the congressman sided with Democrats to pass a resolution aimed at rolling back tariffs Trump imposed on Canada. Trump fired off a Truth Social post declaring he was “WITHDRAWING my Endorsement of RINO Congressman Jeff Hurd” and instead bestowing it on Scheppelman.

Just four weeks later, though, Trump unexpectedly announced that he had returned to Hurd’s corner, saying he’d “do a fantastic job as your Congressman.” Scheppelman, meanwhile, would leave the race to take a post in his administration, he said.

But while Trump’s reverse-reversal and Scheppelman’s departure appeared to put Hurd on a glide path to renomination, Hanks emerged exactly three weeks later to try to wrest the GOP nomination from the incumbent.

Candidates in Colorado can make the primary ballot either by submitting signatures or by taking at least 30% of the vote at their party assembly. There was little question that hardline delegates would easily give Hanks, who had performed well at assemblies during two prior bids for federal office, the support he needed to move forward.

But Hurd, who had collected signatures, avoided putting his name before this hostile gathering. He had good reason to simply side-step the convention: Had he taken less than 10% of the vote at the assembly, his campaign would have been over no matter how many signatures he turned in. (State election authorities are still verifying his signatures, though there’s no indication he’s in danger of falling short of the required 1,500.)

The congressman, though, still appeared at the event to warn the audience that Democrats “are already trying to influence this primary again” to promote Hanks. But the intervention fell flat. After booing the congressman, delegates proceeded to back Hanks in a voice vote.

As yet, there’s been no sign that Democrats plan to meddle in the June 30 GOP primary, though the race has only just taken shape. And recent evidence suggests they might: In each of the last two election cycles, deep-pocketed Democratic groups spent heavily in the hopes of persuading Republican voters to nominate Hanks in two different races.

Allies of Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet spent more than $4 million in 2022 to boost Hanks against wealthy businessman Joe O’Dea, whom Democrats believed would put up a stronger fight against Bennet. That advertising campaign, which ostensibly attacked Hanks for being “too conservative for Colorado,” didn’t stop O’Dea from winning the primary, though Bennet went on to decisively prevail in the fall.

Democrats deployed that very same line again in 2024 when Hanks and Hurd both ran to replace Rep. Lauren Boebert, who responded to her surprisingly weak 2022 victory against Democrat Adam Frisch by leaving the 3rd District behind to seek the more conservative 4th District on the other side of the state. Frisch, who saw the benefit of facing another toxic opponent, also ran ads questioning whether Hurd genuinely supported Trump.

But the Congressional Leadership Fund, the top Republican super PAC devoted to House races, responded in kind, lest Hanks advance and give the GOP a new problem to worry about in the fall. The group ran its own commercials charging that it was Hanks who was insufficiently pro-Trump and warning that Democrats were supporting him to “elect another liberal to Congress.”

CLF came out on top, as Hurd ended up defeating Hanks 41-28. But even Hurd struggled in the fall: He fended off Frisch by a relatively close 51-46 margin, a considerably closer win than Trump’s 54-44 victory in the district.

Hanks is eager to remind conservatives about the campaign to sink him two years ago and Hurd’s appointments in office.

“Jeff, you and Speaker Mike Johnson spent a million dollars last election calling me a BABY KILLER and a Gun Grabber - you didn’t think you’d have a fight on your hands?” he tweeted Saturday. “This is Conservative Colorado, Jeff. We support President Trump and America First.... and you threatened DJT you’d ruin it all.”

Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that Trump’s nationwide unpopularity will end up dragging down whoever emerges with the GOP nod in June. Two Democrats are facing off in this summer’s primary: private equity investor Alex Kelloff, who’s been running for almost a year, and Army veteran Dwayne Romero, who entered the race last month with the support of Frisch.

NE-02

An outside group supporting political strategist Denise Powell is airing ads warning that a victory for state Sen. John Cavanaugh in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s open 2nd Congressional District would result in a dangerous “MAGA supermajority” in the state’s unicameral legislature—one that could cost Democrats a crucial vote in the Electoral College.

Republicans occupy 33 of the Senate’s 49 seats in the officially nonpartisan chamber, which is the exact number required to overcome a filibuster. Thanks to its supermajority, the GOP has passed much of its agenda unimpeded.

But last year, two Republicans provided the crucial votes to block a plan by Republican Gov. Jim Pillen to undo a state law that awards presidential candidates an electoral vote for each congressional district they carry.

Powell’s allies insist that Democrats need Cavanaugh to remain exactly where he is if they want to protect the law that allowed both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to win the 2nd District’s electoral vote, even as Donald Trump decisively won the state as a whole. (Maine is the only other state that uses such a system.)

Fight for Nebraska, which has spent close to $900,000 so far, is running ads explaining that Pillen would appoint Cavanaugh’s replacement should the senator resign midway through his current four-year term to join Congress.

“That means MAGA Republicans will have the votes to eliminate the ‘blue dot,’” says the narrator. “It means more restrictions on abortion and defunding public schools.”

The entire argument could become moot after November if Democrats manage to flip enough seats in the state Senate to break the GOP’s supermajority (half of the chamber will be up, but not Cavanaugh’s seat).

Nonetheless, this line of attack has been circulating for some time. The Nebraska Examiner’s Juan Salinas called attention to it in an article last November, in which Cavanaugh slammed his critics for harboring a “loser mentality.”

“I am confident that I’m going to win this House seat,” the legislator said of his campaign to replace retiring GOP Rep. Don Bacon, “and I’m confident that I’m going to do it in a way as a leader that will help Democrats win more seats at the state level.”

That response, though, did not persuade his opponents, including both Douglas County District Court Clerk Crystal Rhoades and Powell, who is the founder of an organization that helps women candidates.

At a debate on Sunday, both argued that Democrats would be badly hurt if Cavanaugh leaves the Senate. (Navy veteran Kishla Askins, the fourth and final notable Democrat in the race, does not appear to have brought the matter up.)

Cavanaugh pushed back by charging that his rivals were “picking up a Republican talking point” meant to harm his campaign. But an undeterred Powell told the Examiner after the event, “I’ll be frank, I’m sort of surprised that he didn’t realize how big an issue that was going to be.”

Fight for Nebraska, though, believes it’s a very big issue with Democrats. The outfit, as of Monday, is responsible for all of the third-party spending in the primary to date.

It’s going to get some backup soon, however. On Monday, EMILYs List, Elect Democratic Women, and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’ BOLD PAC jointly announced they would spend $1 million to help Powell win the Democratic nod.

Republicans, however, have sent mixed messages about whether they believe Cavanaugh would be the strongest or the weakest Democrat to take on Omaha City Councilman Brinker Harding, who has the GOP side to himself.

American Action Network, which has close ties to House GOP leaders, began running earlier ads this month ostensibly praising Cavanaugh for “working to enact Trump’s policy”—a line no Democrat would ever want uttered about them ahead of a primary. (Because AAN is registered as a nonprofit, its commercials are considered issue ads, a loophole that allows it to avoid filing independent expenditure reports with the FEC.)

A January article from the conservative Washington Examiner, however, said that unnamed GOP strategists wanted Cavanaugh to be the Democratic nominee in the fall.

That piece, though, did not mention the possibility that Pillen could fill Cavanaugh’s seat if he’s elected to Congress. It instead argued that Cavanaugh, by virtue of his progressive stances and association with liberal organizations, would be the easiest candidate for Republicans to defeat in November. Such a loss would, of course, allow him to remain in the legislature.

Harding, though, will be in for a difficult campaign no matter who the Democrats ultimately nominate. Kamala Harris carried the 2nd District 52-47, and Bacon’s departure and Trump’s unpopularity make it one of the best pickup opportunities for Democrats anywhere in the country.

NY-12

Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul has endorsed Assemblyman Micah Lasher, who once served as her policy advisor, in his bid for New York’s open 12th District. Lasher is one of many candidates seeking the Democratic nod in the race to replace retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.

UT-01

State Sen. Kathleen Riebe dropped her bid for Utah’s redrawn 1st District at a gathering of Salt Lake County Democrats on Saturday and endorsed former Rep. Ben McAdams—while also taking a shot at another contender, state Sen. Nate Blouin.

“He’s been too inflammatory and, in this world today, we need healing, and we need cohesiveness,” Riebe told The Salt Lake Tribune. “We can’t squander this opportunity and put some loose cannon in there.”

Late last month, Blouin released an internal poll of the primary showing McAdams with a 36-23 lead. Riebe was tied at 7% with another contender, Salt Lake City Councilwoman Eva Lopez Chavez, while three others took 2% or less.

Defend independent journalism

Poll Pile

• FL-Sen: EDGE Communications and MDW Communications:

  • Ashley Moody (R-inc): 43, Alex Vindman (D): 42.

  • EDGE and MDW are Democratic firms. The release did not include numbers testing state Rep. Angie Nixon, the other notable Democrat in the race.

• IA-Sen: GBAO for ModSquad (pro-Turek):

  • Ashley Hinson (R): 47, Josh Turek (D): 43.

  • Hinson (R): 47, Zach Wahls (D): 44.

  • The poll was conducted March 10-16.

• TX-Sen: Peak Insights for Texans for a Conservative Majority (pro-Cornyn)

  • John Cornyn (inc): 44, Ken Paxton: 43. (March: 45-45 tie.)

• FL-Gov: EDGE and MDW:

  • Byron Donalds (R): 41, David Jolly (D): 41.

  • The release did not include any other potential matchups.

• IA-Gov: GBAO for ModSquad:

  • Rob Sand (D): 50, Randy Feenstra (R): 42.

  • The release did not include numbers testing any of the other Republican candidates.

• MI-Gov: Impact Research for Jocelyn Benson:

  • Jocelyn Benson (D): 40, John James (R): 36, Mike Duggan (I): 20.

  • Feb.: Benson (D): 39, James (R): 36, Duggan (I): 20.

  • The release did not include any other potential matchups.

• CA-11 (top-two primary): Data for Progress for Saikat Chakrabarti:

  • Scott Wiener (D): 33, Saikat Chakrabarti (D): 28, Connie Chan (D): 13, David Ganezer (R): 7, Marie Hurabiell (D): 5, others 2% or less.

  • March: Wiener: 32, Chakrabarti: 20, Chan: 17.

• FL-AG: EDGE and MDW:

  • Jose Javier Rodríguez (D): 43, James Uthmeier (R-inc): 40.